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Homebreds Are Dominant On This Year’s Derby Trail

The Week in Review by T.D. Thornton

In a departure from recent seasons, homebreds are dominating the GI Kentucky Derby trail through the early portion of the 2021 prep-race season.

In the TDN Derby Top 12 that will be published in the Feb. 2 edition, no fewer than seven of the leading dozen race for the same owners who planned their matings, raised them as foals, and got those colts into the starting gate.

That 7-of-12 ratio is as high a number of homebreds within the Top 12 at any time since I started compiling TDN's Derby rankings back in 2017.

For short-term comparison, using the Top 12 lists that were published the first week of February in each of the last two years, just two homebreds were among the highest-ranked dozen at this point of the 2019 campaign. In 2020, only one homebred made the early-February cut.

The 2021 group of A-list sophomore homebreds is currently topped by 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality (Tapit), who just last Thursday secured Eclipse Award honors in the 2-year-old male division for owner/breeder Godolphin. The divisional champ is joined by fellow Godolphin homebred and 'Rising Star' Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro), plus the Godolphin-bred and owned Proxy (Tapit).

'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River (Hard Spun) is a Shortleaf Stable homebred who is shaping up as the hometown horse to beat in the Arkansas preps. And the colt who finished right behind him in two New York maiden races last fall, the Courtlandt Farms homebred Greatest Honour (Tapit), just muscled his way into Derby relevance at Gulfstream with a 5 3/4-length smash-and-grab score in Saturday's GIII Holy Bull S.

Derby aspirant and 'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun (Into Mischief) is a Juddmonte homebred, and Highly Motivated (Into Mischief) carries the colors of owner/breeder Klaravich Stables (after going through the auction ring for $240,000 at KEENOV because Klaravich was buying out a partner who co-owned the weanling).

It's tempting to wonder if the early-season prominence of homebreds on the Derby trail is in any way related to the phase-out of Lasix over the past six months and/or how those horses have been managed and trained.

The country's top circuits began prohibiting race-day usage of the drug for 2-year-olds in 2020, as did the Breeders' Cup for its quartet of juvenile stakes. The 2021 Derby will be run Lasix-free, as will most of the “Road to the Derby” stakes preps leading up to it (in exceptions like December's Springboard Mile S. at Remington Park, no qualifying points were awarded to the first-, third, and fourth-place horses because they raced on Lasix).

Over the past decade, Thoroughbred breeders who race their own stock have been among the most vocal proponents of eliminating race-day medication in America. Is there something about how they've raised their horses that is allowing them to reap the rewards of a rollback to Lasix-free racing at the highest levels of the sport?

It's far too early to tell for sure. Right now the data sample is not large enough to distinguish causality from coincidence when it comes to linking the success of homebreds to the decline of Lasix usage.

And in two of the cases of the above-mentioned seven homebreds, that Lasix theory doesn't hold water (forced pun intended): Proxy and Prevalence both have only won while racing on Lasix (the former where it was permitted for 2-year-olds at Fair Grounds last autumn and the latter Jan. 23 at Gulfstream, where Lasix is allowable in non-stakes for 3-year-olds). If they are to continue as serious Derby candidates, they'll have to forego it.

But you can bet potential links to medication-free racing will be worthy of further exploration if elite-level homebreds continue to cluster at the top of the crop.

Sundance debut for “Jockey”

This past Saturday, two horses named after filmmaking kingpins ran in Derby prep races–Tarantino (Pioneerof the Nile) was second in the Holy Bull S., and Spielberg (Union Rags) ran fourth in the GIII Lewis S.

But the more intriguing mashup between cinema and horse racing occurred on Sunday, when the independent, small-budget film “Jockey” overcame long odds to premiere at the world-renowned Sundance Film Festival in the category of U.S. Dramatic Competition.

“Jockey” was shot at Turf Paradise in 2019, using live race action and the backdrop of a working stable area to augment the scripted parts of the film. Texas-based director and co-writer Clint Bentley is the son of the late Quarter Horse jockey Robert Glenn Bentley, who rode primarily in the Southwest and also at Pompano Park in the early 1980s when the Florida harness track used to host Quarter Horse meets.

Although the debut screening of “Jockey” occurred too late on Sunday evening to allow for a review prior to deadline for this column, advance press material describes the plot as revolving around an aging jockey (Clifton Collins Jr.) trying to go out as a winner despite a litany of injuries that have compromised his health. His spirits get a boost when he gets a leg up on a promising young horse, but when a budding young rider (Moises Arias) arrives on the circuit and claims to be his son, the journeyman jock is forced to confront whether his last gasp at achieving on-track success is more important than his longing for the family connections he gave up to pursue his race-riding dreams.

The buzz prior to Sunday's world premiere was strong enough that “Jockey” was acquired last week by the Berlin-based Films Boutique for international sales, according to the show-biz trade publication Variety.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Sundance festival this year is taking place in an online-only format. One additional screening of “Jockey” is scheduled Feb. 2, and (as of this writing) limited-availability tickets are still available for $15 at Sundance.org.

Prior to the 99-minute feature “Jockey,” Bentley created a precursor short film in 2017 that was similarly inspired by his father and the hardscrabble existence of jockeys riding on low-level circuits. That 10-minute short, titled “9 Races,” was shot at Retama Park. You can view it online for free here.

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: Midnight Bourbon Aging Well

One Kentucky Derby qualifying points race was held over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, but there were a couple of other races worth looking at.

The points race was the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes from Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La., a 1 1/16-mile contest offering 17 Derby points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1). While no winners of the Lecomte have gone on to capture the G1 Kentucky Derby, there are some notable successes in the not-too-distant past, including G1 Preakness winners War of Will (2019) and Oxbow (2013). Going back a few more years to 2007, you'll find Derby runner-up Hard Spun on the Lecomte winner's roster.

Tampa Bay Downs ran the Pasco Stakes, a starting point for the Oldsmar, Fla., track's Derby qualifying points races: the Feb. 6 Sam F. Davis (17 points) and March 6 Tampa Bay Derby (85 points). The Pasco, run at seven furlongs, offered a $125,000 purse but no Derby points and has never produced a winner that had an impact on the Triple Crown.

Finally, California-breds were in the spotlight at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif., including 3-year-olds in the Cal Cup Derby. While this might not be a points race, let's remember that a Lucky Pulpit colt named California Chrome launched his 3-year-old championship campaign (including Kentucky Derby and Preakness wins) with a victory in the Cal Cup Derby.

As I wrote in my first 2021 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card, the following grades are entirely subjective and based on my personal “eyeball test,” Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of fields. I don't employ an “easy” curve in my grading.

Jan. 16: Lecomte Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Fair Grounds

Midnight Bourbon was second-choice in the wagering behind the Brad Cox-trained Into Mischief colt Mandaloun, the 4-5 favorite who came into the Lecomte undefeated in two starts: a six-furlong maiden win at Keeneland Oct. 24 and an allowance victory at Churchill Downs Nov. 28. Midnight Bourbon, trained by Steve Asmussen, chased the front-running (and likely distance challenged) Jackie's Warrior last time out when third in the G1 Champagne Stakes at a one-turn mile at Belmont Park Oct. 10. Michael Stidham-trained Proxy (by Tapit) won back-to-back maiden and allowance races around two turns in November and December at Fair Grounds after narrowly losing his debut at Monmouth Oct. 24. He was the 8-1 fifth choice in the betting.

Midnight Bourbon and Joe Talamo hold off Proxy and Mandaloun to win the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds

All three come from serious racing and breeding operations: Midnight Bourbon is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred Tiznow colt; Mandaloun is a Juddmonte Farms homebred; and Proxy is a Godolphin homebred produced from the outstanding racemare Panty Raid, winner of the G1 Spinster at Keeneland.

Midnight Bourbon has the goods pedigree-wise, being a half brother to G3 Salvatore Mile winner Pirate's Punch (by Shanghai Bobby); G1 Haskell winner Girvin (by Tale of Ekati); and G3 Iroquois winner Cocked and Loaded (by Colonel John). Now pensioned Tiznow, the two-time G1 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, has been an outstanding sire. He was a late developer, not debuting until late April of his 3-year-old campaign and winding up the year as the champion 3-year-old male and 2000 Horse of the Year. It wouldn't be a stretch to think Midnight Bourbon will age well.

Joe Talamo, subbing for jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard Midnight Bourbon, took it to his rivals early, outhustling Proxy and Mandaloun for the early lead and laying down 24 and change fractions all the way around the Fair Grounds oval and repelling bids from Proxy and a three-wide Mandaloun from the three-eighths pole to the wire, holding them at bay by one length. Trainer Cox said he might put blinkers on Mandaloun for his next start in the Risen Star, where he'll get a rematch with Midnight Bourbon.

The winner earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in the Lecomte, a significant improvement from his previous best Beyer, 80, when second to late-running Sittin On Go at Churchill Downs in the G3 Iroquois Sept. 5 after making a bold move to the lead on the turn for home.

Midnight Bourbon ran his final sixteenth in 6.32 seconds and the final five-sixteenths in 30.85 in his first true two-turn test (he broke his maiden going a mile on the peculiar Ellis Park layout where they start coming out of a chute on the clubhouse turn).

Grade: B

Jan. 16: Pasco Stakes, seven furlongs, Tampa Bay Downs

The Bill Mott-trained Union Rags colt Nova Rags jumped off the Daily Racing Form past performances page as the only 3-year-old in the eight-horse lineup to contest a graded stakes, finishing fourth in the G3 Nashua at Aqueduct on Nov. 8.

Nova Rags was made the 13-10 favorite and ran to his odds, winning by 2 ¾ lengths under Samy Camacho despite going very wide throughout (five wide going into the final turn). Nova Rags covered seven furlongs in 1:24.55 and earned a 75 Beyer Speed Figure, three ticks lower than a 78 Beyer in his debut maiden victory at Belmont Park Oct. 10.

Nova Rags draws off late under Samy Camacho to win the Pasco Stakes by 2 3/4 lengths

Out of a Smart Strike mare, the Michael Shanley homebred should improve with distance and Hall of Famer Mott is known for his patience with all of his horses. It's hard to take much from this race, especially when you go back and look at how soundly he was defeated in the Nashua, where he lost by 14 ¼ lengths without apparent excuse.

Grade: D

Jan. 16: California Cup Derby 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita

Trainer David Hofmans added blinkers to Big Fish's equipment for this race restricted to California-bred or -sired horses after removing the hood two starts back. This a long-striding colt by the Dynaformer stallion Mr. Big who probably wasn't best suited when sent out for a 4 ½-furlong maiden test last June 19 in his debut, finishing second. After another sprint try on dirt where he finished third to Cal Cup Derby favorite Good With People, Hofmans moved Big Fish to turf, where he graduated against state-breds going one mile, then won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes against open company at the same distance.

Big Fish put in a big stretch run to win the California Cup Derby under Juan Hernandez

In the Cal Cup Derby, jockey Juan Hernandez allowed Big Fish to settle well behind the early leaders, commenced a drive around the three-eighths pole, saved ground into the stretch and ran down Good With People and Peter Miller stablemate None Above the Law. Big Fish won going away by 1 ½ lengths in a fairly pedestrian 1:46.37 for 1 1/16 miles, earning a 71 Beyer Speed Figure.

Hofmans now has options for the Legacy Ranch homebred, who comes from the same female family as Pasco winner Nova Rags. The fourth dam of Big Fish is Kaylem Ho, and Kaylem Ho is the second dam of Nova Rags. Kaylem Ho was a member of Mrs. Henry D. Paxson's excellent broodmare ban in the late 1970s in Pennsylvania.

Grade: C-

Coming up on Friday's opening-day card at Oaklawn is the Smarty Jones Stakes at a mile, with 17 Derby points offered. The following weekend, the Road to the Kentucky Derby gets more serious with the Jan. 30 Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park and Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita.

Previously: Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

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Midnight Bourbon Holds Off Proxy, Mandaloun In Lecomte

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon took the lead from the start in Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots' $200,000 Lecomte (G3) for 3-year-olds and held that position to the wire en route to a one-length win over Proxy, who headed out heavily favored Mandaloun for the place spot. The winner amassed 10 qualifying points for Churchill Downs' May 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1).

Midnight Bourbon, the second-choice at 3.70-1, and Joe Talamo broke running and took the initiative immediately in the eight-horse field, while allowed to set leisurely fractions of 24.68 and 48.99 over a stalking Proxy at 8.90-1, and three-wide Mandaloun, who was odds-on at 4-5. Little changed off the far turn, as Talamo asked Midnight Bourbon, and the pair increased their advantage to two lengths, and held sway to the line, with Proxy proving a game second over Mandaloun. It was a large gap of 8 ¾ lengths back to fourth-place finisher Santa Cruiser, at 7.30-1. Midnight Bourbon covered the 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.41 while defeating seven rivals. He boosted his career record to 5-2-1-2 with earnings of $221,420.

Midnight Bourbon was making his 3-year-old debut for trainer Steve Asmussen after an encouraging 2-year-old season that saw him hit the board in a pair of graded stakes. The son of Tiznow broke his maiden going one mile in his second start at Ellis Park in August, and ran a good second in Churchill's Iroquois (G3) on Kentucky Derby Day in September before finishing his season running third in Belmont Park's October 10 Champagne (G1). Asmussen, who won the Lecomte for the third time, was pleased with Midnight Bourbon's freshman campaign but he was confident the best was yet to come.

“Lovely horse, he's a beautiful individual,” Asmussen said. “Obviously he had run some solid races (at 2), but we were very much looking forward to getting him into two-turn races. His pedigree, we think that going further will help him. He's got a beautiful stride to him. He was away nice and cleanly and Joe (jockey Talamo) gave him a nice trip.”

Midnight Bourbon began his preparation for the Lecomte in November and showed a quartet of five-furlong works leading up to the race. The Lecomte was clearly just the starting off point to what Asmussen hopes is a big campaign, with races like the local February 13 Risen Star (G2) on Louisiana Derby Preview Day and March 20 TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) on the agenda.

“He's going to develop into an excellent 3-year-old,” Asmussen said. “Absolutely (when asked about the Risen Star). We were very excited to get him down here (to New Orleans) and get him in this series and stuff. With him being capable of what he is away from there, the ground that he covers, I think it's a natural fit.”

Talamo was a late replacement for jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., who took off all his Saturday mounts “because his girlfriend and baby are sick and he didn't feel comfortable leaving Louisville for various reasons,” according to his agent Ruben Munoz.

The veteran Talamo, who was born in Marrero, just 13 miles away from Fair Grounds, was ecstatic over the ultimate catch ride.

“It felt really good (to get the mount),” Talamo said. “Just really grateful to Steve for giving me the opportunity on him. Very, very classy horse. He broke like a rocket out of there and I just tried to be a good passenger from there. He settled like a champ and when those horses came to him down the lane, he fought (them) off, and he really galloped out very, very nice.”

Godolphin's homebred Proxy earned 4 Derby qualifying points and ran big in defeat for trainer Mike Stidham, as he was stepping up into his first stakes off a pair of local wins. The regally-bred son of Tapit broke his maiden here in November in his second career start and entered off a win in an optional-claimer December 18. Proxy won on the lead while setting slow splits in both starts, while showing some inexperience in the process, but showed a rating gear in the Lecomte, which has Stidham also looking forward to his colt's future.

“Very, very happy with that (run),” Stidham said. “He was a little green last time and both of his wins were on the lead so he didn't really learn a lot. But the way he dug in and held off the favorite (Mandaloun) in the end, and was getting to the winner, I couldn't have been happier. I think the farther the better; the mile and an eighth, and the mile and three-sixteenths of the Louisiana Derby is only going to help him. We needed him to do what he did today (to keep going on) and he did it.”

Juddmonte Farms' homebred Mandaloun, who earned 2 Derby qualifying points, was a strong favorite off a pair of sprint wins in Kentucky to start his career for trainer Brad Cox. The son of Into Mischief won on debut at Keeneland in October then won an optional-claimer at Churchill November 28, but he didn't finish as strongly while stretching out to two turns for the first time. Mandaloun sat an outside trip from a wide post under Florent Geroux but didn't kick in as expected through the stretch.

“I was in a good stalking position, two or three wide,” Geroux said. “My options were limited. The winner just kept going. It was very close for second. The way we started, that's the way we finished. Maybe it was the slow pace, but the horses in front of me had a better kick at the end.”

Calumet Farm's homebred Santa Cruiser, who dueled through hot fractions when breaking his maiden in his last start November 19 at Churchill, surprisingly lagged far behind in last but did run on nicely late for trainer Keith Desormeaux. The son of Dialed In earned 1 Derby qualifying point for his effort and is another who figures to move on to the Risen Star.

Updated Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

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The TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 12

Next-race plans are starting to solidify for some of the contenders among the Top 12, including a possible No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup at Oaklawn in February. Farther down the list, Nos. 5 and 9 will clash this Saturday in the GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit—Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

The connections of 3-for-3 ‘TDN Rising Star’ Essential Quality are mapping out a campaign for the presumptive divisional champ that could end up with the high-energy gray prepping in the GII Louisiana Derby prior to taking aim at the GI Kentucky Derby. But the first race of this Tapit colt’s sophomore season is still a moving target. After winning the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, “we didn’t give him time off but we backed off on him and he seems to have responded well,” trainer Brad Cox said. “He was really good [in his early January training] and we just need to keep him that way until the middle of February.” Cox said the nine-furlong GII Risen Star S. Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds is “on the table,” as is the 1 1/16 miles GIII Southwest S. Feb. 15 at Oaklawn. “The one thing about the Fair Grounds race is it’s a lot more [Derby qualifying] points, so that makes it a little more attractive. But the distance is the question; do we want to go a mile and an eighth off not having a race in three months?” Cox added that even if the Godolphin homebred does ship from New Orleans to race at Hot Springs, “I’m 99% sure that he would go back to Fair Grounds, and the Louisiana Derby would be in play after that.”

2) LIKEABLE (c, Frosted–Dashing Debby, by Medaglia d’Oro)
O-Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable & Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-0, $49,050.
Last Start: 13th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Likeable, a $350,000 KEESEP colt, owns a dazzling 8 1/2-length MSW score at Belmont last September sandwiched by a much-better-than-it-looks runner-up debut at Saratoga and a “too fast to last” effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If trainer Todd Pletcher can hone this colt’s sharp, natural gate speed into a more efficient version of what we saw from Likeable at age two, look out. Dam Dashing Debby (Medaglia d’Oro) won her debut sprinting by 10 1/4 lengths in a Calder stake back in 2009 and was acquired shortly thereafter by Stonestreet Stables, right on the heels of another Medaglia d’Oro filly acquired by Stonestreet–eventual champ Rachel Alexandra. Since then, Dashing Debby has produced two black-type winners–one sprinting on dirt and the other around two turns on grass–plus a yearling colt by Speightstown who hammered for $800,000 at the 2020 KEESEP sale. Likeable’s MGISW sire Frosted figures to add depth and bottom to the pedigree equation, and this colt is now breezing up to five furlongs at Palm Beach Downs in prep for his sophomore unveiling.

3) PRIME FACTOR (c, Quality Road–Haylie Brae, by Bernardini)
O-CHC Inc. & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Two Hearts Farm LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $900,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $24,000.
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Last Start: 1st Msw, GP, Dec. 12
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

The most authoritative maiden win among the Top 12? That would belong to Prime Factor, a $900,000 KEESEP Quality Road colt who ran roughshod over what looked like a pretty decent crew Dec. 12 at Gulfstream, earning a ‘TDN Rising Star’ distinction. This Todd Pletcher trainee widened under wraps to bowl home by 8 3/4 lengths in a 1:10.38 clocking (85 Beyer) that went .08 seconds faster than the only other six-furlong race on the card, the GIII Sugar Swirl S. for older female sprinters. The fourth-place finisher from that race, Broadway (Quality Road), a $500,000 FTSAUG buy, won a Tampa MSW route race this past Friday at 4-5 odds, while the second- and third-place runners both came back to run third in their respective races Saturday at Gulfstream. Longer distances appear to be Prime Factor’s sweet spot based on his pedigree. He’s out of a Bernardini mare, and second dam Dance Swiftly is a full-sister to Canadian Horse of the Year and U.S. Eclipse Award winner Dance Smartly, winner of the 1991 GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

4) JACKIE’S WARRIOR (c, Maclean’s Music—Unicorn Girl, by A. P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $95,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 12.

With blowout speed and an aura of being in a different league than his overmatched foes, Jackie’s Warrior dominated the division last summer through early autumn. This $95,000 KEESEP Maclean’s Music colt appeared primed to pounce in the Breeders’ Cup, yet even though he carved out a no-excuse stalking trip behind the Juvenile’s fastest opening quarter since 2014 and its fastest half-mile split since 2003 and got first run at the wilting leaders a quarter mile from the short-stretch finish, “Jackie” couldn’t sustain his bid in deep stretch. He’s now two breezes into his return, but even though he’s based at Fair Grounds, trainer Steve Asmussen told the Blood-Horse last week that the Oaklawn preps might be this colt’s path to Louisville, based on the lucrative purses, qualifying points, and “pace being as effective as it is at Oaklawn.” The connections of No. 1-ranked Essential Quality are also considering the Feb. 15 Southwest S. for that colt’s 2021 debut, potentially setting up an early season showdown of two of the division’s heaviest hitters.

5) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $67,700.
Last Start: 1st Alw, FG, Dec. 19
Next Start: GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Proxy should be a pace component in Saturday’s GIII Lecomte S., and this Tapit homebred for Godolphin has the unique advantage of already having won twice around two turns at this Fair Grounds meet. Even though his Dec. 19 N2L allowance win came only against three other rivals and earned a so-so 76 Beyer, Proxy was tag-team pressured by every horse in the race at some point and appeared emboldened when mixing it up in close quarters in his stretch fight. Jockey Angel Suarez recently suffered a broken femur, so he’s off Proxy in favor of Mitchell Murrill, whose only lifetime graded stakes victory was at this distance over this track. Proxy will also be going back off Lasix (he raced on Lasix for both of his Fair Grounds wins, but not in his runner-up Monmouth debut in October, in which he was beaten only by a neck). “He’s like a big, immature kid who is still learning with racing,” trainer Michael Stidham said. “Last time when he won, he was a little green about switching leads coming down the lane, but once he leveled off, he drew away at the end, so we were pleased with that.”

6) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief– Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., Jan. 2, Santa Anita
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

‘TDN Rising Star’ Life Is Good won the Jan. 2 GII Sham S. in wire-to-wire fashion, ticking the two-turn box on his progression checklist. This $525,000 KEESEP colt by Into Mischief earned a 101 Beyer for clocking a mile in 1:36.63, pulsing around the track largely unopposed though quarter-mile splits of :23.56, :23.11, :23.99 and :25.97. The 1-5 fave broke inward at the start and bumped mildly with a rival, then cleared the field from the outermost five hole while giving up four paths of real estate on the turn, bounding along by his lonesome onto the backstretch. Life Is Good remained hand-ridden until deep stretch when 9-1 stablemate Medina Spirit (Protonico) closed the gap while under a vigorous drive, and Life Is Good drifted out while asked for a more by Mike Smith, who showed (but did not utilize) the whip. “I always tell Mike to try and save something,” Baffert said post-race. “Life Is Good wasn’t as tired as I thought he could have been. He needs to learn to relax a little bit better, but he will.” Look for him in about two months, most likely in the Mar. 6 GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita.

7) SPEAKER’S CORNER (c, Street Sense–Tyburn Brook, by Bernardini)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-William Mott. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $43,290.
Last Start: 1st Mdn, Belmont, Oct. 11
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Speaker’s Corner, a Godolphin homebred by Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare (same cross as Godolphin’s highly-rated Maxfield) competed in two of the stronger MSWs at Saratoga and Belmont last season. This colt’s debut on closing day at the Spa was a green third, but both Speaker’s Corner and the runner-up came back to win. And this colt’s maiden-breaking tally despite minor trip trouble over seven furlongs at Belmont also has the makings of a key race, featuring sharp splits and a reeling in of a next-out winner–Caddo River (Hard Spun)–who earned ‘TDN Rising Star’ status upon his own graduation (the eighth-place finisher from that MSW also came back to win). With a sire who won the 2007 Derby and a second dam who scored in the 2006 GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff, the colt’s pedigree has a longer-the-better-slant.

8) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 wlg ’18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Every year there’s an undercard 2-year-old winner from Breeders’ Cup weekend whose buzz carries over, and this season Highly Motivated qualifies as that colt. This Into Mischief bay won the Nyquist S. to run his record to 2-for-3 (all sprints), and three rivals who finished behind him have since come back to win. Klaravich Stable bred Highly Motivated after racing his Chad Brown-trained dam, the seven-furlong black-type stakes winner Strong Incentive. But this colt went through the auction ring for $240,000 at KEENOV because Klaravich was buying out a partner who co-owned the weanling. Authentic’s decisive wins in the Derby and GI Breeders’ Cup Classic last season certainly helped to answer questions about the ability for Into Mischief’s progeny to carry speed up to 10 furlongs. But this colt’s dam-sire, Warrior’s Reward, made his mark as a sprinter, registering his lone stakes win at seven furlongs in the 2010 GI Carter H.

9) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $91,252.
Last Start: 1st Alw, CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

‘TDN Rising Star’ Mandaloun will start favored in Saturday’s Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. That will be the route debut for this Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief out of an Empire Maker mare. “We’ve always felt he was cut out to be a two-turn horse based on his physical makeup and how he trains,” trainer Brad Cox said. “It shows how much talent he’s got to be able to win his first two races at sprint distances, and now we’re going to do what we’ve thought he’s wanted to do all along, and that’s go long.” Mandaloun drew post 10 with no shortage of speed to his inside, which could end up being a tactical advantage if he seeks a stalking trip like in his previous two wins. Mandaloun needed (and responded to) a rousing ride from the five-sixteenths pole home in his 82-Beyer Churchill allowance score.

10) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $76,092.
Last Start: 1st Msw, CD, Nov. 15
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Cox confirmed Thursday that ‘TDN Rising Star’ Caddo River will make his debut at two turns in Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones S., the track’s Jan. 22 opening-day feature. This Hard Spun colt demonstrated ability to withstand serious pace pressure while forcing the issue on or near the lead against top-notch maiden fields at Saratoga and Belmont prior to punching through in a Churchill MSW that he commandeered by 9 1/2 lengths. Even though Caddo River has already won at the eight-furlong distance of the Smarty Jones, he’ll have to adapt from the one-turn mile configuration that he relished at Churchill to a short-stretch finish around two bends at Oaklawn, where mile races start and end at the sixteenth pole. Well-bet, wire-to-wire horses have won each of the last three editions of the Smarty Jones–but none of them went on to make an impact on the Derby trail. Caddo River’s speed should stand him in good stead at Oaklawn. But he’s a rangy, leggy colt, and short-stretch route races are often won by horses built more like compact cruisers (taller, lankier striders don’t have that extra sixteenth in the straight to fully uncoil).

11) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban—Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, 3rd GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 18.

Keepmeinmind worked a half-mile in :50.20 Wednesday at Oaklawn (39/94) under regular rider David Cohen, his first breeze since rallying from last to win the GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes as a maiden Nov. 28. “Very easy half, with a nice long gallop out,” Cohen said post-work. “He seemed to have matured since his last race.” Breaking a maiden in a stakes must run in the family: His sire, Laoban, wired the 2016 GII Jim Dandy S. at 27-1 odds for his only career win. Prior to his first career victory, Keepmeinmind ran second then third behind No. 1-ranked Essential Quality in the GI Breeders’ Futurity S. and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, beaten only 5 1/4 combined lengths. You’ve heard that stat about the 36 winners of the Juvenile scoring in only two Kentucky Derbies? Second- and third-place Juvenile horses don’t fare any better. Those 72 placings have accounted for only one Derby win, with Spend A Buck (third in the inaugural Juvenile back in 1984) the lone exception.

12) KING FURY (c, Curlin–Taris, by Flatter)
O-Fern Circle Stables & Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. B-Heider Family Stables LLC (Ky). T-Ken McPeek. Sales history: $950,000 yrl ’19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-0-0, $142,739.
Last Start: 5th GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: 1st Street Sense S.
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

With a foaling date of Jan. 12, King Fury is the only member of the Top 12 to reach his actual third birthdate. This $950,000 FTSAUG yearling by Curlin is a smooth mover with an ample (five races at 1 1/16 miles) foundation of two-turn experience. His form, on paper at least, lost a bit of shine with off-the-board finishes in the Juvenile and Kentucky Jockey Club S. But he had minor trip trouble when wheeling back into the Breeders’ Cup on just 12 days between starts and his blinkers-on experiment as a frontrunner under the lights Nov. 28 might have been a tactical aberration. Still plenty of upside here, and a 2-for-3 record at Churchill won’t hurt as the first Saturday in May comes more clearly into focus.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Brooklyn Strong (Wicked Strong): This 5,000 OBSAPR gelding upset the GII Remsen S. over nine furlongs and will aim for repeat at same distance in the Feb 6 GIII Withers S.

Capo Kane (Street Sense): Speed in hand to top of stretch then responded when roused (although a touch green) in his 84-Beyer Jerome S. score. Now aims for Withers S.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow): Half to 2019 sprint champ Mitole ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) pointed toward GIII Lewis S. Jan. 30 off 94-1 second behind Essential Quality in the Juvenile.

Manor House (Upstart): Saturday’s Lecomte is glutted with speed, but this colt’s debut wiring of a Laurel MSW by 12 ¼ lengths still stands out in the past performances (76 Beyer; fourth-place horse from that race came back to win). This colt is cross-entered in a 1x/optional claimer earlier on Saturday’s Fair Grounds card and could opt for that spot instead.

Mutasaabeq (Into Mischief): Rallied from long way last to win GII Bourbon S. on turf, then no-impact 10th in GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Change of surface and tactics when winning the Jan. 2 Mucho Macho Man S. earns this colt another likely stakes date on dirt.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 12 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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