Perched atop the Longines World's Best Racehorse Rankings at 129 pounds for much of the year after his sensational 3 1/2-length victory in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic in Dubai this March, the formidable Equinox (Jpn) (Kitasan Black {Jpn}) will attempt to become only the third horse to claim the ¥421,420,000 G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn) in back-to-back years at Tokyo on Sunday.
The reigning Japanese Horse of the Year has never finished worse than second in eight starts, and landed the G1 Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin over 2200 metres–200 metres farther than Sunday's trip–at the end of June. Ridden by Christophe Lemaire, just like fellow Silk Racing colourbearer, Japanese Horse of the Year and dual Tenno Sho (Autumn) heroine Almond Eye (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) (2019/2020), the Tetsuya Kimura trainee's task will not be an easy one.
“Christophe Lemaire rode work last week and it was the usual work we do a week out,” said Kimura of his charge, who worked well at his Miho base last week. “Things were very routine. This week, the training was quite orthodox. In some ways the main concern was making sure everything went as usual amid all the attention. I don't think there's any problem with him.”
Of the 10 rivals that oppose the 8-5 favourite the greatest danger looks to be 14-5 shot Do Deuce (Jpn) (Heart's Cry {Jpn}), a winner of both the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity S. in 2021 and the 2022 G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby). He defeated Equinox by a neck in the latter contest, and also earned a Group 2 victory in the Kyoto Kinen in February. Part of the numerous Japanese challengers for the Dubai World Cup night, he was forced to scratch after coming up lame before the big dance, but is reportedly working well since recovering.
Said trainer Yasuo Tomomichi, “His fast work was on the hill course this week. His time was fast, but we didn't overdo it. I think he's in excellent shape. Jockey Yutaka Take rode him last week, and the horse was switched on mentally this week the same. After work, he was bothering the other horses, that's how full of energy he was. His breathing was good too. I'll leave the race strategy up to the jockey.”
The progressive Prognosis (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) holds all the ingredients to upset the big two, and the Mitsumasa Nakauchida charge was second in the Aug. 20 G2 Sapporo Kinen after taking the G2 Kinko Sho at Chukyo in March. In between those starts was another runner-up performance in the G1 QEII Cup at Sha Tin to the classy Romantic Warrior (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}).
“He won the Sapporo Kinen strongly and I could see that he had matured considerably,” said trainer Mitsumasa Nakauchida. “The ground that day wasn't the best, but still he ran well. I think he has gotten stronger both mentally and physically. Even from before the Sapporo Kinen, I'd been thinking of sending him here.
“Last week, I had Yuga Kawada ride trackwork and the horse was more switched on than I'd thought he would. So this week, an assistant breezed him and we focused on keeping the horse relaxed and well balanced. He's in really good shape.
“As expected, the lineup is a very strong one, with horses that have proven their ability, so we'll just have to see how well Prognosis can do up against them. He has no problem racing to the left, and he's raced over 2,000 meters a number of times so the distance and course are not concerns. He won handily last start and his prep has gone well, so I think he'll be able to race to his best here.”
Former Hong Kong champion jockey Joao 'Magic Man' Moreira will be on hand to pilot Group 3 winner Danon Beluga (Jpn) (Heart's Cry {Jpn}). Fourth in both the 2022 G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) and the Japanese Derby behind both Do Deuce and Equinox, the 4-year-old was third to the last-named horse in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) last year, and was second to Lord North (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) in the G1 Dubai Turf on Dubai World cup night later in his career. The Noriyuki Hori-trained colt was fourth most recently in the Sapporo Kinen and his morning line odds are currently 13-1.
“It was hard before and after the Sapporo Kinen to get a reading on his condition,” said Hori. “To be honest, his fast work two weeks ago seemed slow, but from last week he started to look stronger. I don't think he's quite up to his overall best though. I think he can do better if he can show off his ability.”
Third to Equinox in the Takarazuka Kinen in June is Masahiro Miki's Justin Palace (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), who prevailed in the 3200-metre G1 Tenno Sho (Spring) in April. Handed stall six, he is one to the inside of Equinox. Another Group 1 winner partaking in the Tenno Sho is Osaka Hai victor Jack d'Or (Jpn) (Maurice {Jpn}). He was sixth in the wake of Prognosis in the Sapporo Kinen, and departs from stall 10.
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