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‘Rising Star’ Prevalence Eyeing Fountain of Youth

Godolphin's sophomore homebred and 'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro), a jaw-dropping debut winner on the GI Pegasus World Cup undercard Jan. 23, breezed Friday morning in anticipation of a possible start in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park Feb. 27.

There is also an optional claiming allowance for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles in the condition book for Thursday, Feb. 25.

Prevalence went five furlongs in 1:01 (4/6) at Palm Meadows, his second work following his 8 1/2-length maiden special weight triumph.

“He worked good and he galloped out good,” trainer Brendan Walsh said. “We're happy with him. I thought he was a good horse before he ran, but did I expect him to do what he did? Absolutely not, especially one of mine first time out. They generally improve, so I would like to think that this guy has some improvement in him. We won't get too carried away. We'll move on to the next one, and he'll be given plenty of chances to prove himself as we go forward.”

Walsh added, “He ran so well at Gulfstream the last time we would probably like to keep him in something at Gulfstream. There's the Fountain of Youth and there's an allowance race there, as well. It's probably going to be one or the other. We'll just see how he does here over the next few weeks and go from there. We'll let him tell us.”

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Impressive Maiden Winner Prevalence Could Show Up In Fountain Of Youth

Godolphin's sophomore homebred Prevalence, an impressive debut winner on the Pegasus World Cup (G1) undercard Jan. 23 at Gulfstream Park, breezed Friday morning in anticipation of a possible start in the $300,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) Saturday, Feb. 27.

With exercise rider and assistant trainer Tom Molloy up, Prevalence went five furlongs in 1:01 at Palm Meadows, Gulfstream's satellite training facility in Palm Beach County. It was the second work following his 8 ½-length maiden special weight triumph.

“He worked good and he galloped out good. We're happy with him,” trainer Brendan Walsh said. “We're in good shape right now.”

Prevalence was sent off at 7-1 in his unveiling, which drew a full field of 12 including fellow first-time starter Stage Raider, a half-brother to 2018 Triple Crown champion Justify, and narrow favorite Holy Redeemer, by Blame.

After breaking a half-step slow, Prevalence quickly gathered himself and chased the pace for a quarter-mile before taking over the top spot through a half in 46.09 seconds. From there, the bay Medaglia d'Oro colt widened with each stride under a hand ride from Tyler Gaffalione, completing seven furlongs in 1:23.

“I thought he was a good horse before he ran, but did I expect him to do what he did? Absolutely not, especially one of mine first time out,” Walsh said. “They generally improve, so I would like to think that this guy has some improvement in him. We won't get too carried away. We'll move on to the next one, and he'll be given plenty of chances to prove himself as we go forward.”

The 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth is the next step for 3-year-olds on Gulfstream's road to the $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa March 27. There is also an optional claiming allowance for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles in the condition book for Thursday, Feb. 25.

“He ran so well at Gulfstream the last time we would probably like to keep him in something at Gulfstream. There's the Fountain of Youth and there's an allowance race there, as well. It's probably going to be one or the other,” Walsh said.

“We'll just see how he does here over the next few weeks and go from there. We'll let him tell us,” he added. “He'll probably have just a little work next weekend at some stage. If we go to the Fountain of Youth or the allowance race, he'll probably do a little bit next Friday or Saturday and that should set him up right.”

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Homebreds Are Dominant On This Year’s Derby Trail

The Week in Review by T.D. Thornton

In a departure from recent seasons, homebreds are dominating the GI Kentucky Derby trail through the early portion of the 2021 prep-race season.

In the TDN Derby Top 12 that will be published in the Feb. 2 edition, no fewer than seven of the leading dozen race for the same owners who planned their matings, raised them as foals, and got those colts into the starting gate.

That 7-of-12 ratio is as high a number of homebreds within the Top 12 at any time since I started compiling TDN's Derby rankings back in 2017.

For short-term comparison, using the Top 12 lists that were published the first week of February in each of the last two years, just two homebreds were among the highest-ranked dozen at this point of the 2019 campaign. In 2020, only one homebred made the early-February cut.

The 2021 group of A-list sophomore homebreds is currently topped by 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality (Tapit), who just last Thursday secured Eclipse Award honors in the 2-year-old male division for owner/breeder Godolphin. The divisional champ is joined by fellow Godolphin homebred and 'Rising Star' Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro), plus the Godolphin-bred and owned Proxy (Tapit).

'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River (Hard Spun) is a Shortleaf Stable homebred who is shaping up as the hometown horse to beat in the Arkansas preps. And the colt who finished right behind him in two New York maiden races last fall, the Courtlandt Farms homebred Greatest Honour (Tapit), just muscled his way into Derby relevance at Gulfstream with a 5 3/4-length smash-and-grab score in Saturday's GIII Holy Bull S.

Derby aspirant and 'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun (Into Mischief) is a Juddmonte homebred, and Highly Motivated (Into Mischief) carries the colors of owner/breeder Klaravich Stables (after going through the auction ring for $240,000 at KEENOV because Klaravich was buying out a partner who co-owned the weanling).

It's tempting to wonder if the early-season prominence of homebreds on the Derby trail is in any way related to the phase-out of Lasix over the past six months and/or how those horses have been managed and trained.

The country's top circuits began prohibiting race-day usage of the drug for 2-year-olds in 2020, as did the Breeders' Cup for its quartet of juvenile stakes. The 2021 Derby will be run Lasix-free, as will most of the “Road to the Derby” stakes preps leading up to it (in exceptions like December's Springboard Mile S. at Remington Park, no qualifying points were awarded to the first-, third, and fourth-place horses because they raced on Lasix).

Over the past decade, Thoroughbred breeders who race their own stock have been among the most vocal proponents of eliminating race-day medication in America. Is there something about how they've raised their horses that is allowing them to reap the rewards of a rollback to Lasix-free racing at the highest levels of the sport?

It's far too early to tell for sure. Right now the data sample is not large enough to distinguish causality from coincidence when it comes to linking the success of homebreds to the decline of Lasix usage.

And in two of the cases of the above-mentioned seven homebreds, that Lasix theory doesn't hold water (forced pun intended): Proxy and Prevalence both have only won while racing on Lasix (the former where it was permitted for 2-year-olds at Fair Grounds last autumn and the latter Jan. 23 at Gulfstream, where Lasix is allowable in non-stakes for 3-year-olds). If they are to continue as serious Derby candidates, they'll have to forego it.

But you can bet potential links to medication-free racing will be worthy of further exploration if elite-level homebreds continue to cluster at the top of the crop.

Sundance debut for “Jockey”

This past Saturday, two horses named after filmmaking kingpins ran in Derby prep races–Tarantino (Pioneerof the Nile) was second in the Holy Bull S., and Spielberg (Union Rags) ran fourth in the GIII Lewis S.

But the more intriguing mashup between cinema and horse racing occurred on Sunday, when the independent, small-budget film “Jockey” overcame long odds to premiere at the world-renowned Sundance Film Festival in the category of U.S. Dramatic Competition.

“Jockey” was shot at Turf Paradise in 2019, using live race action and the backdrop of a working stable area to augment the scripted parts of the film. Texas-based director and co-writer Clint Bentley is the son of the late Quarter Horse jockey Robert Glenn Bentley, who rode primarily in the Southwest and also at Pompano Park in the early 1980s when the Florida harness track used to host Quarter Horse meets.

Although the debut screening of “Jockey” occurred too late on Sunday evening to allow for a review prior to deadline for this column, advance press material describes the plot as revolving around an aging jockey (Clifton Collins Jr.) trying to go out as a winner despite a litany of injuries that have compromised his health. His spirits get a boost when he gets a leg up on a promising young horse, but when a budding young rider (Moises Arias) arrives on the circuit and claims to be his son, the journeyman jock is forced to confront whether his last gasp at achieving on-track success is more important than his longing for the family connections he gave up to pursue his race-riding dreams.

The buzz prior to Sunday's world premiere was strong enough that “Jockey” was acquired last week by the Berlin-based Films Boutique for international sales, according to the show-biz trade publication Variety.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Sundance festival this year is taking place in an online-only format. One additional screening of “Jockey” is scheduled Feb. 2, and (as of this writing) limited-availability tickets are still available for $15 at Sundance.org.

Prior to the 99-minute feature “Jockey,” Bentley created a precursor short film in 2017 that was similarly inspired by his father and the hardscrabble existence of jockeys riding on low-level circuits. That 10-minute short, titled “9 Races,” was shot at Retama Park. You can view it online for free here.

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: A Rapid River In The Smarty Jones

Oaklawn opened its 2021 meeting last Friday, Jan. 22, with Caddo River taking the day's feature race, the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes for 3-year-olds, the only Kentucky Derby qualifying points race of the last week.

Caddo River serves notice with a 10 1/4-length victory in the Smarty Jones

The Smarty Jones, worth 17 points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1) is the first of four Derby points races at the Hot Sports, Ark., track. Next up will be the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (17 points) on Feb. 15, followed by the G2 Rebel (85 points) on March 13 and the G1 Arkansas Derby (170 points) on April 10 – three weeks before the May 1 Kentucky Derby.

Inaugurated in 2008, the Smarty Jones has yet to produce a classic winner, though Will Take Charge kicked off his Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-old season with a victory in the 2013 Smarty Jones for Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas. Though he was unsuccessful while running in all three Triple Crown races, Will Take Charge won the G2 Rebel, G1 Travers, G2 Pennsylvania Derby, G1 Clark and was beaten a nose by Mucho Macho Man in the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita.

While the Smarty Jones was the only points race, there were two very impressive maiden performances worth chronicling on Saturday, Jan. 23.

The first may have gotten lost on the Pegasus World Cup card from Gulfstream Park. Prevalence, a Godolphin homebred by Medaglia d'Oro trained by Brendan Walsh, absolutely destroyed a 12-horse maiden field going seven furlongs. Breaking half a step slow from the six post under Tyler Gaffalione at 7.80-1 odds, Prevalence worked his way toward the front along the rail after an opening quarter mile in :22.66. He was in front after a half in :46.09 and then left his rivals in the dust, pulling away under mild encouragement to win by 8 ½ lengths while completely geared down in the final yards. Six-furlong split was 1:10.45 with the seven furlongs timed in 1:23.00. He was given a Beyer Speed Figure of 89.

Prevalence was an impressive winner in his debut at Gulfstream Park on Pegasus World Cup day

Prevalence was one of eight first-time starters in the race, so it's hard to gauge the quality of the field he was beating. I have a sneaking suspicion several of those who chased Prevalence will graduate soon as the field included a John Gunther homebred trained by Chad Brown (runner-up Stage Raider), a $1,050,000 Curlin yearling trained by Todd Pletcher (Ghazaaly, who finished third), and horses carrying silks of high-end stables like W.S. Farish, WinStar Farm/CHC Inc., and Lothenbach Stables, among others.

Walsh told Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch he might look for an allowance race or consider the G2 Fountain of Youth (an 85-point Derby points test) on Feb. 27 for Prevalence's next start.

Pedigree note: Prevalence was produced from the Ghostzapper mare Enrichment, whose Arch colt Estihdaaf won the G3 UAE Two Thousand Guineas at a mile in 2019. Enrichment was produced from the Seeking the Gold mare Sahara Gold, a daughter of the Storm Cat mare Desert Stormer, who beat males in the 1995 Breeders' Cup Sprint.

The other impressive maiden winner on Saturday was The Great One, a Nyquist colt who romped to a 14-length win at Santa Anita in a mile maiden race that ran with only four starters, including 11-10 favorite debut runner Fenway (a $650,000 yearling purchase by Into Mischief) from the Bob Baffert barn. The Great One is trained by two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O'Neill and is owned in part by Erik Johnson, a defenseman for the Colorado Avalanche of the NHL (thus the name The Great One, a reflection of hockey legend Wayne Gretzky's nickname, fitting for a son of a horse named for another hockey star Gustav Nyquist).

The Great One, by Nyquist, drawing off by 14 lengths under Abel Cedillo

The Great One was coming off a nose defeat to Baffert-trained Spielberg in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 19 – his fourth start. Two starts earlier in a mile main track maiden race at Del Mar, The Great One finished fourth, beaten 13 lengths by Spielberg. So I think we can establish that The Great One is improving.

Unlike the Los Al Futurity, where The Great One raced on the lead throughout and was nailed in a head-bobber, he rated just off Fenway's right flank through fractions of :22.91 and :45.76, then took command after three-quarters in 1:10.67. He went seven furlongs in 1:23.69 and under energetic handling by Abel Cedillo for most of the stretch run stopped the clock for a mile in 1:37.28 – a final quarter mile in 26.61 seconds after fast early fractions.

The Great One received a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, compared to an 81 for his Los Al Futurity.

O'Neill said the G2 San Felipe (85 qualifying points) on March 6 is the logical next step for The Great One.

If I had to pick between these two maiden winners, I'd go with Prevalence, simply because I see more upside.

Now a look at the Smarty Jones Stakes. My grading system (A to F) is entirely subjective and based on my personal “eyeball test,” Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of fields.

Jan. 22: Smarty Jones Stakes, one mile, Oaklawn

Much was expected of Brad Cox-trained Caddo River, the 3-5 Smarty Jones favorite based on the Hard Spun colt's 9 ½-length maiden win when stretched out to a one-turn mile for his third start at Churchill Downs last Nov. 15. He finished second in two previous seven-furlong sprints at Saratoga in September and Belmont in October.

He did not disappoint, winning by 10 1/4 lengths.

With Florent Geroux in the saddle, Caddo River went straight to the front and basically tow-roped the seven-horse field once around the Oaklawn oval to the finish line at the sixteenth pole in the “short stretch” configuration for one-mile races at Oaklawn. Each of his quarter miles went progressively slower than the previous one: :23.12, :24.04, :25.26 and :25.77. That's about the only flaw (if you could call in that) I could see in the performance, which was very professional and rated a 92 Beyer Speed Figure.

There were three multiple winners in the lineup, plus the Steve Asmussen-trained Cowan, a two-time stakes runner-up, including the G2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. I don't see a big upward arc for any of those who came in Caddo River's wake, so the level of competition knocks down his grade a bit.

Hard Spun (like Prevalence's sire Medaglia d'Oro and The Great One's sire Nyquist) stands at Darley at Jonabell Farm. While his lone G1 victory came sprinting seven furlongs in the King's Bishop (now the H. Allen Jerkens), the son of Danzig finished second to Street Sense in the Kentucky Derby and second to Curlin in the Breeders' Cup Classic at four in 2007. His offspring have proven to be solid around two turns as well.

Caddo River, bred by and racing for John Ed Anthony's Shortleaf Stable, is the firest foal from the Congrats mare Pangburn, a stakes winner for Shortleaf purchased for $130,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July Yearling Sale.

Anthony is no stranger to the Triple Crown trail, having won the 1980 Belmont Stakes with Temperence Hill and back-to-back Preakness Stakes in 1992-'93 with Pine Bluff and Prairie Bayou, respectively. He's won Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes four times and the Arkansas Derby on three occasions. Like so many of his previous runners, Caddo River is named after a landmark in Anthony's home state of Arkansas. We're going to hear a lot more about this horse.

Grade: B

This Saturday we'll have two Kentucky Derby points races, the G3 Holy Bull from Gulfstream Park and the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes from Santa Anita

Previously: Jan. 18 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

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