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Energy Level, Timing Will Help Determine Next Start For Unbeaten Prevalence

Two decisive victories to launch his career have the connections of Prevalence considering a start in the Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial presented by Resorts World Casino on April 3 at Aqueduct Racetrack in Ozone Park, N.Y.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, the Godolphin homebred captured plenty of attention with a flashy and effortless 8 ½-length debut triumph going seven furlongs on January 23 at Gulfstream Park. The Medaglia d'Oro colt followed on Thursday at the South Florida oval with a three-length win going a one-turn mile, registering an 86 Beyer Speed Figure.

Jimmy Bell, president of Godolphin's North American division, said that how Prevalence runs in his next start will be a large deciding factor as to how the horse will be campaigned on the Triple Crown trail.

“His maiden win told us something, his allowance win told us even more and his next race will decide where we go from there. Each race is its own entity,” Bell said. “We'll all be curious to see what his best distance is. He showed a nice step up from seven-eighths to a mile.”

The Wood Memorial, along with the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on April 10 at Oaklawn Park and Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass on April 3 at Keeneland, are among the possible targets for Prevalence's graded stakes debut. All three races are Kentucky Derby qualifiers awarding 100-40-20-10 points to the top-four finishers.

“It becomes a question of where his energy level is and it comes down to a timing thing,” Bell said. “His past races gave him some good experiences and when asked, he responded professionally.”

A Kentucky homebred, Prevalence is out of the Ghostzapper mare Enrichment – a full-sister to multiple Grade 1-winning millionaire Better Lucky and stakes-winning turf sprinter Final Frontier. All three are out of the graded stakes-winning Seeking the Gold mare Sahara Gold, whose dam was 1995 Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Desert Stormer.

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Prevalence on Target for Derby Prep

Godolphin's Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro), who followed a 'TDN Rising Star'-worthy debut going seven furlongs at Gulfstream Jan. 23 with a one-mile allowance tally in Hallandale last Thursday, could make his next start in a GI Kentucky Derby prep, with the Apr. 3 GII Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, GII Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland the same day, and the Apr. 10 GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park all in play.

“His maiden win told us something, his allowance win told us even more and his next race will decide where we go from there. Each race is its own entity,” Jimmy Bell, President of Godolphin's North American division, told the NYRA notes team. “We'll all be curious to see what his best distance is. He showed a nice step up from seven-eighths to a mile.”

Of the colt's possible next start, Bell added, “It becomes a question of where his energy level is and it comes down to a timing thing. His past races gave him some good experiences and when asked, he responded professionally.”

Godolphin's Lake Avenue (Tapit), winner of last week's Heavenly Prize S., could return to Aqueduct for the Apr. 2 GIII Distaff S., according to Bell. The 4-year-old filly won the 2019 GII Demoiselle S., but was winless in four starts last season. She is now two-for-two in 2021 and has impressed connections with a new ability to settle off the pace.

“In her last two races she showed different dimensions where she can break, settle and monitor the situation from off the pace. She got in a good position in both races and when the jockey said, 'Go,' she responded,” Bell said. “Her last two races really gave us a lot of confidence moving forward. We were a little uncertain with her, but she just gave us two really good performances.”

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‘A Good Step Up’: Triple Crown Prep May Be Next For Prevalence After Dominating Win

Godolphin LLC's Prevalence took a giant step forward Thursday at Gulfstream Park, where the highly regarded 3-year-old colt registered a dominating optional claiming allowance victory that may very well lead to a Kentucky Derby (G1) prep race for his next start.

Bet down to 1-9 in a field of six 3-year-olds on the strength of a dazzling debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight event at Gulfstream Jan. 23, Prevalence scored by three lengths in his return to action while running the one-turn mile in 1:35.82.

“I think it was a good step up for the horse going from the seven [furlongs] to a mile. It seemed like he got the distance good; the time was good,” trainer Brendan Walsh said. “We can't ask for much more than what we saw.”

The $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill n' Dale will be run March 27 at Gulfstream Park but will come up too soon for Prevalence. The Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland, the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park and Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct will be run April 3. The latter two preps would seem the most likely targets since Godolphin's Essential Quality is scheduled to run in the Blue Grass.

“We'll get back and let the dust settle and talk to the team at Godolphin and see where we go after that,” Walsh said, '[A Derby prep] is a strong possibility, for sure.”

Prevalence established himself as a hot Triple Crown prospect when he debuted on the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) undercard. After brushing with a rival shortly after the start, he asserted himself on the backstretch and drew away under wraps to complete seven furlongs in 1:23. The Feb. 27 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream had been a goal for the homebred son of Medaglia d'Oro before he missed a key workout due to a brief bout with a cough.

“It was very important that we did what we did today, and not throw him in too deep,” Walsh said. “I'm very pleased we got this race. Hats off to the guys at Gulfstream for getting the race to go, because I think it was very important for the horse.

Prevalence broke cleanly from his outside post to race a couple lengths off the pace set by Tio Magico, who was making his 2021 debut after finishing second in the Coronation Futurity at Woodbine in his juvenile finale. The Kentucky-bred colt joined the pacesetter leaving the backstretch without any encouragement from jockey Tyler Gaffalione and took a slight lead on the turn into the homestretch. He opened a clear lead in the stretch and finished under mild encouragement.

“It was probably not as flashy as his first race, but I think we're going to get a lot more out of this race today,” Gaffalione said. “He was definitely more green. He was looking up at the grandstand down the lane. He kind of got lost by himself. I just had to remind him to keep to his task. He has a really bright future. I'm really looking forward to getting to the bottom of him.

“He didn't disappoint at all today, if anything, I'm even more excited about him because I know, if it comes to it, he will give me some fight,” Gaffalione added.

Southern Passage, who trailed the field early, closed to finish second under Corey Lanerie, a length ahead of Tio Magico.

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‘Rising Star’ Prevalence Stays Unbeaten in Gulfstream Allowance

8th-Gulfstream, $45,000, Alw (NW1$X)/Opt. Clm ($75,000), 3-11, 3yo, 1m, 1:35.82, ft, 3 lengths.

PREVALENCE (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Enrichment, by Ghostzapper), arguably the flashiest debut winner of 2021 thus far, backed up his huge first-out victory with a more workmanlike allowance tally Thursday at Gulfstream in what could serve as a springboard to an April GI Kentucky Derby prep for the Godolphin homebred. Unveiled as a 34-5 proposition in a loaded-looking maiden race going seven panels here Jan. 23, the bay survived a host of pace pressers and burst away in the lane to a devastating, wrapped-up 8 1/2-length score, easily good enough for 'TDN Rising Star' honors. Considered for a run in the Feb. 27 GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., he was forced to pass on the race after missing a breeze with a fever. Quickly recovering to post two sharp works at Palm Meadows, Prevalence was pounded down to 1-10 against five overmatched-on-paper rivals here and broke a bit outwardly at the start. Tracking the speed in the clear from second through a modest :23.90 quarter, he turned up the pressure past a swifter :46.35 half and rolled by three-quarters on even terms in 1:10.74 under confident handling. Shaken up by Tyler Gaffalione outside the furlong pole, he scampered clear soon after and didn't face a serious danger from there, hitting the wire three lengths to the good of 32-1 longshot Southern Passage (Super Saver).

The winner is a half to Estihdaaf (Arch), GSW-UAE, $183,491; and Libreta (Girolamo), SW, $128,660. His dam, a full-sister to MGISW Better Lucky (Ghostzapper), has a juvenile Quality Road colt named Emirates Road and foaled a colt by Frosted last term before visiting Uncle Mo. Second dam Sahara Gold (Seeking the Gold) is a GSW daughter of 1995 GI Breeders' Cup Sprint heroine Desert Stormer (Storm Cat). Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $52,800. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan P. Walsh.

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