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Equibase Analysis: Weyburn Poised To Validate Gotham Upset In Wood Memorial

Saturday's Grade 1, $750,000 Wood Memorial Presented by Resorts World Casino is the first of three “Road to the Kentucky Derby” prep races within the span of one hour on Saturday, April 3. Except for the Arkansas Derby to be run one week from now, these three races, which include the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, offer the winner a guaranteed spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May by affording the winner 100 points. Even the 40 points the runner-up will earn in these races could be sufficient to help secure a spot among the 20 which will participate in the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports” next month.

The Wood Memorial drew a field of nine, led by the one-two finishers in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes last month in Weyburn and Crowded Trade, respectively. Another stakes winner who may belong is Risk Taking, who won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes in February at Aqueduct but who skipped the Gotham. Brooklyn Strong won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes over the track at the distance of the Wood Memorial, but it may be a tall order to pick up where he left off following four months on the bench and versus horses which all ran much more recently.

Candy Man Rocket won the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February before an 11th of 12 finish in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and it may be a stretch to go from next-to-last in that recent race to a top competitor in the Wood Memorial. Market Maven and Bourbonic finished first and second, respectively, in an allowance race at Parx Racing in Pennsylvania but appear overmatched, as does recent maiden winner Dynamic One.

Then there's Prevalence, a strong winner of both starts in his career shipping in to New York from Florida for Godolphin, which already has a significant presence on the “Road to the Derby” with Rebel's Romance (winner of the U.A.E. Derby last weekend), Essential Quality (running in the Blue Grass Stakes), and Proxy.

Weyburn was disregarded by bettors at 46 to 1 odds one month ago in the Gotham Stakes but proved to be an exceptionally tough competitor when winning by a nose. After attending the pace only a half-length behind the leader for the first half-mile, Weyburn engaged for the lead for the rest of the race, first battling head and head with Freedom Fighter then battling nose and nose the entire last eighth of a mile with Crowded Trade. That effort occurring one month ago leads me to believe he will not regress and will move forward to run even better in the Wood Memorial. Considering Weyburn earned a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure, tied for best in the field with Crowded Trade, it would take significant improvement by any other runner except Crowded Trade to run faster than Weyburn demonstrating logical improvement in his second start following three months off. As such, Weyburn gets slight preference among two horses I feel stand out against the rest in terms of their probability to win this race.

Crowded Trade has no knocks, having won in his career debut at the end of January before stepping into stakes company in the Gotham Stakes last month and giving it his all. Third place Gotham finisher Highly Motivated is looking for different scenery this weekend and will run in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. With no other horse having run as fast as either Crowded Trade (or Weyburn) who earned a 105 figure in the Gotham, this lightly raced colt making his third career start has significant improving he can do and must be considered a strong contender to win. As to his breeding to run this nine furlong trip, there's no doubt as a son of More Than Ready that is not an issue as the sire's Catholic Boy won graded stakes at a mile and one-quarter. Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by red hot Eric Cancel, Crowded Trade has every right to turn the tables on Weyburn in their second meeting and move on to the Kentucky Derby in fine form.

Prevalence, like Crowded Trade, has only run twice, and likewise his second race was a one-turn mile in which he ran impressively. After winning his debut by eight lengths in handy fashion with a 99 figure, Prevalence won his second start just as easily by three lengths with a 98 figure but likely could have gone faster. Perhaps more importantly, after he crossed the finish line it was noted by the astute chart caller for Equibase that Prevalence was “urged past the wire for an eighth of a mile or so past the finish.” This is significant, as it shows a plan beforehand between jockey Tyler Gaffalione (who rides in the Wood) and trainer Brendan Walsh (who trained top 3-year-old Maxfield last year) to give the colt experience at running the distance of his next race. Being a son of Medaglia d'Oro, who sired tremendous stakes winners like Songbird and Wonder Gadot, if Prevalence got the foundation for this race as intended, improving enough to win the Wood Memorial is not out of the question.

In case readers are wondering, the reason I'm not considering Risk Taking a win contender has to do with the fact he comes back from two months off after winning the Withers Stakes in February. Although the 102 figure earned in that race may be competitive with the top horses in the Wood if he improves on it, the fact that he skipped the Gotham and most of his opponents ran more recently gives me pause.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Bourbonic (88), Brooklyn Strong (99), Candy Man Rocket (90), Dynamic One (87) and Market Maven (94).

Win Contenders:
Weyburn
Crowded Trade
Prevalence

Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino – Grade 2
Race 10 at Aqueduct
Saturday, April 3 – Post Time 5:58 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $750,000
TV: NBC Sports Network 5:30 – 7:30 PM ET

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Unbeaten Prevalence, Withers Winner Risk Taking Loom Large In Wood Memorial

Unbeaten Prevalence and Grade 3 Withers-winner Risk Taking highlight a strong field for Saturday's 96th running of the Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial presented by Resorts World Casino for sophomores going 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct Racetrack.

The nine-furlong two-turn contest is the final local qualifier for the Grade 1, $3 million Kentucky Derby on May 1 at Churchill Downs and awards 100-40-20-10 qualifying points to the top-four finishers.

The Wood Memorial, which has seen 11 winners go on to win the “Run for the Roses” in its illustrious history, will air on NBSCN as part of a live national broadcast beginning at 5:30 p.m. Eastern and scheduled to include the Grade 2, $800,000 Toyota Blue Grass from Keeneland and the Grade 1, $750,000 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park.

Prior to the NBCSN broadcast, national television coverage of the Wood Memorial Day card from Aqueduct can be found on America's Day at the Races on FS2 beginning at 1 p.m. ET.

The Wood Memorial is one of five graded events on Saturday at the Big A, including the first New York Grade 1 race of the year in the $300,000 Carter for 4-year-olds and up going seven furlongs; the Grade 3, $200,000 Bayshore for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs; the Grade 3, $150,000 Excelsior for 4-year-olds and up going nine furlongs; and the Grade 3, $250,000 Gazelle, a nine-furlong test for sophomore fillies offering 100-40-20-10 Kentucky Oaks qualifying points.

Godolphin, whose royal blue colors saw the winner's circle in the 2015 Wood Memorial with Frosted, will seek their second Wood triumph with the highly regarded Prevalence. The Brendan Walsh-trained son of Medaglia d'Oro is 2-for-2 at Gulfstream Park to start and his career will see two turns for the first time.

Prevalence, the 3-1 morning-line second choice, posted an 8 ½-length debut win going seven furlongs on January 23. The talented bay colt defeated Stage Raider, a half-brother to 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, as part of a talented field.

“There were a bunch of horses in that race being touted,” Walsh said. “A lot of them have come back and run well, which showed that the form was respectable. He won by a very wide margin and no matter the company you're in that's pretty remarkable.”

He handled a stretch out to a mile on March 11 over the same track, besting an optional claiming field by three lengths. Despite needing light handling in the final sixteenth, Walsh expressed no concern.

“It was just a little bit of greenness. I'm sure if he had company it would have helped him along,” Walsh said.

Prevalence displayed an up close running style in both efforts and Walsh said that his horse should show the same tactics on Saturday.

“He's quick, so with that kind of speed, he should be prominent in the race,” Walsh said. “He hits me as a horse who can handle any kind of surface.”

Prevalence, a Kentucky homebred, is out of the Ghostzapper mare Enrichment, a full-sister to multiple Grade 1-winning millionaire Better Lucky and stakes-winning turf sprinter Final Frontier.

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione retains the mount aboard Prevalence from post 6.

Prevalence will face four graded stakes-winners who have already earned triumphs on the Derby trail. His biggest challenge comes from Risk Taking, who was made the 5-2 morning line favorite after flaunting excellence in both of his starts going nine furlongs at Aqueduct.

Owned by Seth Klarman's Klaravich Stables and trained by Chad Brown, Risk Taking benefitted from the addition of blinkers and added distance in his third career start, where the son of Medaglia d'Oro broke his maiden December 13 at the Big A. Risk Taking settled several lengths off a slow pace while saving ground along the rail before drawing off to a 2 ¼-length win over eventual winners The Reds and Unbridled Honor.

Risk Taking secured 10 Derby qualifying points with a 3 3/4-length Withers win, hitting the wire first after securing advantage inside the final furlong.

Bred in Kentucky by G. Watts Humphrey, Jr., Risk Taking is out of the dual turf stakes-placed Distorted Humor mare Run a Risk. He was a $240,000 purchase at the 2019 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Risk Taking drew post 4 under Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Brown and Klaravich are also represented by Crowded Trade, who arrives off a sharp runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Gotham on March 6 at Aqueduct.

The son of More Than Ready won his six-furlong debut coming from 7 1/2 lengths off the pace to get up in the final strides on January 28 at Aqueduct. Despite a cleaner break in the one-turn mile Gotham, Crowded Trade came up just a nose shy after establishing slight command in mid-stretch but did not fend off the inside challenge of upset winner Weyburn.

Breaking from post 2 at 4-1 on the morning line, Crowded Trade will be ridden by winter meet leading rider Eric Cancel.

Trainer Todd Pletcher is in pursuit of a sixth Wood Memorial victory when he saddles Dynamic One [post 5, Jose Ortiz, 12-1] and Bourbonic [post 3, Kendrick Carmouche, 30-1].

Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable and Phipps Stable's Dynamic One graduated at fourth asking when traveling nine furlongs on March 7 at Aqueduct.

In his previous starts around two turns, both at Gulfstream Park, Dynamic One finished a respective second and fourth, with the former coming 1 ½ length shy of victory to dual graded stakes-winner Greatest Honour.

“He's always trained well,” said Pletcher. “He was a little unlucky in his two races at Gulfstream to draw the outside post both times, so we were happy to see him get the job done with the maiden win at Aqueduct. We're going to step up and give him a chance.”

Bred in Kentucky by co-owner Phipps Stable, Dynamic One was bought for $725,000 at the 2019 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Pletcher also sends out Calumet Farm's Bourbonic, who takes a major jump up in class. The son of Bernardini notched both of his lifetime victories at Aqueduct going a one-turn mile. He arrives at the Wood Memorial off a runner-up finish in a Parx Racing optional-claiming event on February 23.

“It's a big step. We're taking a shot hoping that we will improve,” Pletcher said.

Pletcher previously won the Wood Memorial with Eskendereya [2010], Gemologist [2012], Verrazano [2013], Outwork [2016], and Vino Rosso [2018].

Cheifswood Stables Limited's Grade 3 Gotham-hero Weyburn seeks to be the first horse since I Want Revenge [2009] to win the Gotham-Wood Memorial double.

The Ontario-bred son of Pioneerof the Nile tracked pacesetter Freedom Fighter from second before battling with Crowded Trade down the stretch to score a 46-1 upset. Weyburn earned 50 Derby points and is currently 10th on the leaderboard.

Trainer Jimmy Jerkens will seek a second Wood Memorial victory after sending out Wicked Strong in 2014.

Trevor McCarthy retains the mount aboard Weyburn from post 8 at morning line odds of 9-2.

A former Wood winner has sired another Wood winner three times in the past 10 years. Brooklyn Strong, a son of 2014 Wood winner Wicked Strong, will look to add to that list in making his sophomore bow for trainer Daniel Velazquez.

Bred in New York by Cheryl Prudhomme and Dr. Michael Gallivan, Mark Schwartz's Brooklyn Strong last raced on December 5, capturing the Grade 2 Remsen on over a sloppy and sealed Aqueduct track.

Brooklyn Strong arrived at the Remsen off a stakes win against his New York-bred counterparts in the Sleepy Hollow on October 24 at Belmont Park.

Manny Franco will be aboard as Brooklyn Strong, at 6-1, will break from the rail.

Candy Man Rocket [post 7, 12-1] seeks redemption after a distant 11th in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby as the beaten favorite. The dark bay Candy Ride colt owned by Frank Fletcher Racing Operations was a sharp 9 ¼-length winner at second asking going six furlongs on January 9 at Gulfstream Park.

He backed up an impressive maiden victory in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis on February 6 at Tampa Bay Downs, where he was prominently placed and held off a late charge from stablemate Nova Rags.

Jockey Junior Alvarado retains the mount aboard Candy Man Rocket from post 7.

Rounding out the field is Gregory Gordon's homebred Market Maven, who ships from Parx Racing for trainer Penny Pearce. The gelded chestnut son of Super Ninety Nine broke his maiden at third asking against fellow Pennsylvania-breds on January 20 before defeating open company winners at a mile and 70 yards on February 23.

Breaking from post 9 at 30-1, Market Maven will be ridden by Dexter Haddock in his first graded stakes mount.

The Wood Memorial, slated for Race 10 on the card, honors the late Eugene D. Wood, a New York state politician who was responsible for the establishment of the now defunct Jamaica Racetrack, where the Wood Memorial was originally run.

Since its inception, the Wood has been captured by over 20 eventual American classic winners, including Triple Crown winners Gallant Fox [1930], Count Fleet [1943], Assault [1946] and Seattle Slew [1977]. Other prominent American classic winners to have previously won the Wood Memorial include Twenty Grand [1931], Johnstown [1939], Hill Prince [1950], Native Dancer [1953], Nashua [1955], Bold Ruler [1957], Quadrangle [1964] Damascus [1967], Foolish Pleasure [1975], Bold Forbes [1976], Easy Goer [1989] and Empire Maker [2003].

First post is 12:50 p.m. Eastern.

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Godolphin Wields Rising Star Duo in Saturday’s Derby Preps

Godolphin has been riding a high since annexing last weekend's GI Dubai World Cup with homebred Mystic Guide (Ghostzapper) and the operation looks to assert its dominance in the sophomore division Saturday with a pair of TDN Rising Stars, defending juvenile champion Essential Quality (Tapit), slated to run in Keeneland's GII Toyota Blue Grass S. and Aqueduct's GII Wood Memorial contender Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro).

Essential Quality earned his Rising Star status courtesy of a four-length victory sprinting six panels at Churchill Downs last September before handling his step up to graded company with aplomb, taking the 8 1/2-furlong GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity in October and tied up a championship with a win in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland Nov. 6.

“I think one of his better races might have been his maiden race,” said Godolphin USA President Jimmy Bell. “We needed a race just to get him started. [In his debut], he showed athleticism and speed going short and won by daylight. He then jumped right into the deep end and won the Futurity and Breeders' Cup. Not many can do that and that's really what sets him apart. He's quite versatile and athletic and with a very good mind. When you put all those things together, it can occasionally get you these kinds of results.”

Drawing post 4, the Feb. 27 GIII Southwest S. winner will be partnered by Luis Saez, aboard for his last three starts in addition to last weekend's World Cup winner Mystic Guide. Bell indicated that trainer Brad Cox outlined a 3-year-old pre-Derby campaign soon after the Breeders' Cup, and the Derby pre-amble would consist of only a pair of preps, including the Blue Grass, which was targeted largely because of its timing and the colt's obvious affinity for Keeneland.

Standing in stark contrast to Essential Quality, who has already cemented his spot in the May 1 GI Kentucky Derby, stablemate Prevalence will have to earn his stripes in top company to earn a ticket to Louisville. Earning Rising Star billing following a flashy 8 1/2-length win going seven panels at Gulfstream Jan. 23, the homebred followed-up with another victory while adding a furlong against optional claiming company at the Hallandale oval Mar. 11.

“A lot of time you get that 'wow' first performance and they go back over for the second race and it's not always the same result,” said Bell. “They are a little more tuned in to what it's all about. In fairness, it was his lifetime second start. That was one of the blessings we had coming back in an allowance race. He had good experiences in both races and he learned something in both races. That's what gives us a little more confidence about stepping into graded stakes and stepping up in distance. Both his races were learning experiences and progressive steps that served us well.”

Since his latest win, the Brendan Walsh trainee returned to work a bullet four furlongs, the fastest of 30 moves at the distance, at Palm Meadows Mar. 28.

“He came out of his last work with a bullet. He went in :47.60 and galloped out as easy as you can–it said it all right there,” explained Bell. “From Brendan's perspective, he's an easy horse to read, you know where he's at and what he's feeling. The timing of the Wood Memorial was good timing for him to make that next progressive step.”

Asked whether it might be too tall of an order for such an inexperienced horse, Bell added, “The hope is for the horse to tell us what we are going to do next and we felt this is the opportunity to do that. He's going to need to be able to travel and he's going to be facing stiffer competition. Certainly, he's been brilliant at the short distance races, but what does he look like going a mile and an eighth? When the race is over, he will have answered all of those questions which will point us in one direction or another. And that's really what we want to do. We want to let him show us what he is or isn't capable of at this stage. It's a progression.”

And what would it mean for Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum and the entire Godolphin team to finally get the chance to hoist the blanket of roses on Derby day?

“It's hard to imagine because it's such an illusive place to get to,” said Bell. “It is one of the most prestigious races, or the most prestigious race, in the world in many people's minds. And it is what everyone who has a talented 3-year-old colt at this time of the year points toward. [Sheikh Mohammed] is so philosophical about these types of races and opportunities that, in time, patience will prevail and if it's meant to be, it will happen. The great news is that there has never been an ounce of pressure. It is just that everyone would like to see it happen. From His Highness Sheikh Mohammed, he is above all an astute horseman and understands probably better than we do. He is just excited to have opportunities and even more excited that a couple of these are hombreds as well. He makes it very easy because he is very understanding and has a great outlook on things.”

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Prevalence Has Final Wood Memorial Prep For Walsh: ‘This Will Answer Our Questions’

Godolphin's Prevalence registered his final work before shipping to New York for Saturday's Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial presented by Resorts World Casino, posting a half-mile breeze in 47.60 seconds Sunday at his home base at the Palm Meadows Training Center in Boynton Beach, Fla.

Trainer Brendan Walsh said he's been pleased with the Medaglia d'Oro colt's training and will see him ship to New York on Wednesday, when the draw for the 100-40-20-10-point Kentucky Derby qualifier at Aqueduct racetrack will occur.

Prevalence, unraced as a juvenile, is 2-for-2, recording a 8 1/2-length debut victory on January 23 at Gulfstream Park and following with a three-length score stretched out to a mile on March 11 at the same track.

“He worked here this morning at Palm Meadows and it went very well and he's flying up there on Wednesday. It looks like he's going into the race in good shape,” Walsh said. “It's another step now, so we'll find out if he can go the two turns as well. This will answer our questions and be a good test for him.”

Walsh said he's optimistic Prevalence can handle the challenge of shipping in for a race for the first time, citing his demeanor and temperament.

“He's a very nice, quiet, easy-going horse and I don't think the travel will affect him at all,” Walsh said. “We'll see how he handles the track. He hits me as a horse who can handle any kind of surface.”

Walsh, who has registered 364 wins and earnings of more than $20 million, said the chance to compete in a prestigious race such as the Wood Memorial is a special one, especially with the 2020 edition not being able to run because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“It's fantastic. This is why we're in the game; to be part of these races, and to bring a horse up there who should be a live one, it's very exciting,” Walsh said.

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione, aboard for Prevalence's first two starts, will have the return call in the Wood Memorial.

“It's always good when you can have continuity,” Walsh said. “It all helps. Tyler's a great rider, so we look forward to having him on board.”

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