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Colic, defined as any acute abdominal pain, is an important sign of gastrointestinal disease in horses. Because colic may stem from many causes, predicting survival is challenging, if not impossible, at times. Could a scoring system reliably predict colic survival based on certain clinical evidence? A group of researchers thought so, and here's how they went about it.*

The researchers took a two-pronged approach to the question. First, they designed a retrospective study to determine the clinical parameters described in horses that survived colic and used them to formulate a survival scoring system. Second, a prospective study used horses presented for colic at two different veterinary clinics to determine the validity of the scoring system.

In the retrospective study, 658 horses with colic signs were identified. At the end of their review, the researchers settled on six health variables to use in the scoring system based on their strong predictive value for outcome at discharge: heart rate, respiratory rate, total calcium, blood lactate, abnormal abdominal ultrasound, and abnormal rectal examination. A total assessment score of 0 to 12 was possible, with a range of 0 to 2 points for each of the six variables.

As for the prospective study, data from 95 horses with colic were collected to assess the validity of the colic scoring system. Those that received a score equal to or less than 7 were predicted to survive, while those that received a score greater than 7 were predicted to die.

Researchers concluded that the scoring system “developed in this study is applicable for clinicians in a hospital setting with a clinical caseload of horses with colic signs using data available in most equine practices.”

Sound feeding management is one way to keep colic at bay, according to Catherine Whitehouse, M.S., a nutritionist at Kentucky Equine Research.

“Many of the nutritional strategies that horse owners follow daily, sometimes subconsciously, evolved with gastrointestinal health in mind: near constant availability of forage, whether it's pasture or hay; small concentrate meals; access to potable water; and the provision of clean, or hygienic, feedstuffs,” she said. Everyday awareness of these and other management practices fosters gastrointestinal health.

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“More recently, we have begun to understand the importance of balancing all-forage diets with vitamins and minerals, and augmenting diets with nutritional supplements that target specific problems,” she explained. “Kentucky Equine Research has developed ways to support gastrointestinal health on many fronts, such as protecting the stomach from ulceration and maintaining a healthy hindgut microbiome.”

*Farrell, A., K. Kersh, R. Liepman, and K.A. Dembek. 2021. Development of a colic scoring system to predict outcome in horses. Frontiers in Veterinary Science:697589.

Reprinted courtesy of Kentucky Equine Research. Visit ker.com for the latest in equine nutrition and management, and subscribe to Equinews to receive these articles directly.

Source of original post

People have believed for years that some animals exhibit unusual behavior before a major earthquake or other natural disaster occurs. Reports have indicated that horses, cows, dogs, cats and sheep may all be able to detect something amiss long before a scientist or warning system can.

Drs. Martin Wikelski, Uschi Mueller, Paola Scocco, Andrea Catorci, Lev Desinov, Mikhail Belyaev, Daniel Keim, Winfried Pohlmeier, Gerhard Fechteler and P. Martin Mai, from the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior and the University of Konstanz, sought to create a study to find out if these animals could detect earthquakes.

The research team attached sensors to farm animals in earthquake-prone areas of Northern Italy and recorded their movements over multiple months. They determined that the animals were restless hours before an earthquake hit. The closer the animals were to the epicenter, the earlier they began behaving oddly.

The scientists used six cows, five sheep and two dogs that had already showed signs of being able to predict an earthquake. Their movements were recorded continuously for several months. During the period the animals wore the sensors, 18,000 earthquakes were reported by authorities, 12 of which were a 4 or higher on the Richter scale.

The researchers chose specific quakes and then marked the animal's unusual behavioral using objective criteria. This ensured that the scientists truly had a model that could be used for predictions. The data measured the activity level of each animal and then evaluated it using statistical models from financial econometrics, taking into account changes in activity patterns throughout the day.

The researchers discovered unusual behavior in the animals up to 20 hours before an earthquake. The closer the animals were to the epicenter of the quake, the earlier they showed activity changes. The team noted that the change was made clear only when the scientists looked at the animals collectively instead as individuals.

Though it's still unclear how the animals can sense the impending quake, scientists suggest they may sense the ionization of the air in their hair; they may also smell gases released from the earth right before the quake occurs.

Tag: predict

Colic Survival Scoring System In Horses

Can Animals Be Used As Earthquake Prediction Systems?