Preakness Stakes | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Pneumatic, Art Collector Both Poised To Upset Preakness Stakes

Overview: Kentucky Derby upset winner Authentic returns in the Grade 1, $1 million Preakness Stakes, with Derby third place finisher Mr. Big News trying to improve his finish, as well as Max Player and Ny Traffic who finished fifth and eighth, respectively, in the race. Two horses that were expected to run in the Derby but did not, Art Collector and Thousand Words, appear to be legitimate challengers to the likely betting favorite. Art Collector won both the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes and Ellis Park Derby before a minor issue resulted in him passing the Derby. Thousand Words, who won the Shared Belief Stakes in August, briefly fell in the paddock before the Derby and had to withdraw. Other new shooters include the filly Swiss Skydiver, runner-up in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks last month. Another potential contender is Pneumatic, winner of the Pegasus Stakes in August. Liveyourbeastlife was competitive at the level when second in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes the first weekend of September, with Jesus' Team close behind in third in that race. Excession hasn't been seen since March but appears to fit as well off his second place finish in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in his most recent start. However, that race was more than six months ago.

Contender analysis: In spite of Authentic winning the Kentucky Derby rather easily and gamely by a length and three-quarters, I think an upset is brewing and the horse which is capable of that upset is Pneumatic. In recent history, the Derby winner has won four of the last 10 editions of the Preakness when they have run in the race. However, that means there have been six occasions the Derby winner has been beaten. I'll take those odds, particularly this year where the number of horses who didn't run in the Derby appear to be every bit as fast as the Derby winner. Pneumatic is the most lightly raced horse in the Preakness field and I think that gives him an edge.

Starting his career in February, Pneumatic won first out in a sprint and has continued to improve, mature, and run faster in each race since then. After stretching out to a mile in his second start in April, Pneumatic improved again when third in the Matt Winn Stakes and even when fourth in the Belmont Stakes in June took another step forward. His pattern of Equibase Speed Figures from his debut through the Belmont (90, 96, 98, 101) denotes a 3-year-old getting physically and mentally stronger with each and every race. Then, in the Pegasus Stakes in mid-August, Pneumatic took a drastic step forward to earn a 113 figure. Putting that figure in perspective, Authentic earned a 109 figure in the Derby while Swiss Skydiver earned the same 109 figure when runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks. Thousand Words' 107 figure in the Shared Belief and the 104 figure Art Collector earned in the Ellis Park Derby were both lower as compared to Pneumatic. Then there's the matter of this mile and three-sixteenths distance. Aside from the fact Swiss Skydiver won the Alabama Stakes and Authentic won the Kentucky Derby at the distance of one mile and one-quarter, no other horse has won at the distance. However, Pneumatic is by Uncle Mo, and per STATS Race Lens Uncle Mo has sired the most stakes race winners at distances from nine and one-half to 10 furlongs compared to all the other sires of Preakness entrants. Trained by North American leading trainer Steve Asmussen, who won the Preakness in 2007 (Curlin) and in 2009 (Rachel Alexandra), if Pneumatic continues to improve as it appears he should, he could win the Preakness at high odds.

Art Collector, who was likely to be the second betting choice behind Tiz the Law in the Derby, did not enter the race when sustaining a mild injury to his heel prior to the race. That might have been the best thing to happen to this immensely talented colt, as he's come back to put in three superb workouts. This suggests Art Collector is in the same top form he has demonstrated since returning from five and one-half months off in May and winning four straight races. After a dominant victory in the Blue Grass Stakes in July with a 102 figure, he ran even better in the Ellis Park Derby with a 104 figure. In both those races, Art Collector was drawing off at the end, suggesting he's a horse which should have no issues with the added sixteenth of a mile in the Preakness. Having the ability to win on the lead or from off the pace, Art Collector is likely to be in the thick of the action in the Preakness from the start and right down to the finish line.

Authentic has been nearly perfect in his career, winning five times and finishing second once. After taking the Haskell Stakes with a career-best 109 figure in July at one mile and one-eighth, Authentic repeated the effort with the same figure in the Derby while leading from start to finish. Considering his last four wins have been earned when leading from start to finish, there is some concern as to what will happen if other horses decide to contest him for the lead. Stablemate Thousand Words (also trained by Bob Baffert) led from start to finish in the Shared Belief Stakes last month and might try to battle for the lead in spite of Baffert's strategy to the contrary, particularly since he is adding blinkers. Art Collector, Ny Traffic and Swiss Skydiver could all be hot on Authentic's heels from the start as well. Still, his Derby effort was very good and any improvement off that race could make him a formidable opponent in the Preakness.

Swiss Skydiver will try to repeat the feat of another filly, Rachel Alexandra, who won the Preakness in 2009 after competing in the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel Alexandra won the Oaks, while Swiss Skydiver finished second in the race this year, but Swiss Skydiver ran the best race of her career in doing so, earning the same 109 figure Authentic did one day later winning the Derby. Prior to that, Swiss Skydiver won the 10 furlong Alabama Stakes in handy fashion and it's possible the return of a 19 day layoff may have been too quick of a turnaround. Rested four weeks this time, Swiss Skydiver has come back to put in two very strong workouts and I expect the filly to be very competitive in this race.

The rest of the Preakness Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures is Excession (100), Jesus' Team (109), Liveyourbeastlife (107), Mr. Big News (105), Max Player (105), Ny Traffic (109) and Thousand Words (107).

Win contenders:
Pneumatic
Art Collector
Swiss Skydiver
Authentic

Preakness Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Pimlico
Saturday, Oct. 3 – Post Time 5:36 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Sixteenths
For 3-Year-Olds
Purse: $1 Million
TV: NBC 4:30 – 6 PM ET

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Pimlico on Preakness Stakes Day – Saturday, Oct. 3 at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.

The post Equibase Analysis: Pneumatic, Art Collector Both Poised To Upset Preakness Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Asmussen’s Preakness Trio: Pneumatic ‘Doing Extremely Well,’ Max Player Showing Good ‘Energy’

Steve Asmussen's trio of Preakness contenders each had the easy half-mile workout Monday that is typical for the Hall of Fame trainer's horses five days before a race.

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Pneumatic, winner of Monmouth Park's Pegasus Stakes in his last start after finishing fourth in the Belmont Stakes (G1), worked a half-mile in 50.20 seconds over the Oklahoma training track at Saratoga. Max Player and Excession each were timed in 49.80 seconds at Churchill Downs.

“It's what we asked for, and they handled it really well,” Asmussen said of the three colts. “Pneumatic is doing extremely well since his win in the Pegasus. We're excited about getting him the opportunity at this level.”

Pneumatic drew Preakness Post No. 10 Monday.

“He had an outside draw in the Pegasus, a little bit shorter field, but an outside draw nonetheless,” Asmussen said. “Joe (Bravo) worked out a really good trip and hopefully he can do the same.”

Max Player, owned George Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbreds, will make his second start for Asmussen, having finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Max Player was third in both the Belmont Stakes and Travers when trained by Linda Rice.

Asmussen termed the work “a little leg-stretch,” adding, “I like his energy.”

Max Player drew Post No. 8 for his Preakness start.

“I think that's an excellent draw. I think he'll be able to stay a little closer from there,” Asmussen said. “Very anxious to see how he runs.”

Calumet Farms Excession will be making his first start since he was a fast-closing second at 82-1 odds behind the well-regarded Nadal in Oaklawn Park's Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on March 14. Excession will break on the rail, which Asmussen called “perfect.”

“He can follow the fence and make his late run,” he said.

Asmussen is shooting for his third victory in the Preakness, following Horses of the Year Curlin in 2007 and the filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009.

The post Asmussen’s Preakness Trio: Pneumatic ‘Doing Extremely Well,’ Max Player Showing Good ‘Energy’ appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Drury: Art Collector’s Versatile Style Will Be A Major Advantage In Preakness Stakes

Tommy Drury didn't get much sleep on Monday night of Kentucky Derby week. The trainer of one of the top Derby contenders, Art Collector, had found a decent-sized cut on the back of the colt's right front hoof, apparently suffered during his Monday morning gallop.

Drury and owner/breeder Bruce Lunsford faced a difficult decision. The colt's hoof was sensitive to the touch, and neither man wanted to subject the horse to the stress of the Run for the Roses unless he was 100 percent. Still, it would have been the first starter in the Kentucky Derby for both Drury and Lunsford, and making the decision to walk away from what could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity was challenging.

“It was certainly difficult,” Drury said on an NTRA teleconference this Monday. “The Derby is a race of a lifetime for a horse trainer. At end of day, the responsibility we have is to put the horse first. It would not have been fair to lead him over there knowing there was an issue going on. It was a no-brainer. We want our horse to be good for the long haul, not just one race.”

Instead, Art Collector will be the 5-2 second choice in this Saturday's Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. He'll face a field of 11, including Kentucky Derby winner Authentic (9-5 favorite) and Kentucky Oaks runner-up Swiss Skydiver (6-1).

Art Collector, a 3-year-old son of Bernardini, won the G2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in July. He stalked the pace in that race, then won the Ellis Park Derby with a solid frontrunning display. That versatility in tactics gives Drury a bit of confidence heading into the Preakness Stakes.

“He has a little stop and go to him,” Drury explained, adding that jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. is very familiar with Art Collector's style. “You can use him and get him going again if you need to. In a race like this, that can be beneficial.”

The post position, three, won't be an issue for Art Collector either, Drury said. The colt is quick enough to get out of the gate and near the lead, and tactical enough for Hernandez to be able to take back off the pace if others decide to go.

No matter what happens this Saturday, Drury is looking forward to the future with Art Collector. This year, the Breeders' Cup Classic is the likely next stop on the colt's schedule, and Drury will also look for Art Collector to return as a 4-year-old.

“Art Collector is a very special horse to us,” summarized Drury. “He has taken my career to places I've never dreamed it would go. I've not had anything like him ever before.”

The post Drury: Art Collector’s Versatile Style Will Be A Major Advantage In Preakness Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Bloodlines Presented By BloodstockAuction.Com: Swiss Skydiver Set To Join Sorority Of Top Fillies To Test Preakness Stakes

With trainer Kenny McPeek declaring to send multiple Grade 1 winner Swiss Skydiver (by Daredevil) to the Preakness Stakes on Oct. 3, our memory turned to the last filly to win the classic against the colts: Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) in 2009.

The striking dark bay wasn't the only filly to win that classic, however. Although Rachel Alexandra is the only filly to win a classic in the 21st century, four other fillies had won the Preakness in the preceding century. Flocarline had been the first filly to win a Preakness in 1903, then Whimsical won the race in 1906, Rhine Maiden won in 1915 (the same year that Regret won the Kentucky Derby), and Nellie Morse won in 1924.

Although it was 85 years after Nellie Morse until another filly won the Preakness, 10 more had tried the classic during the interim. The most famous of these had been the champions and Kentucky Derby winners Genuine Risk (Exclusive Native) in 1980 and Winning Colors (Caro) in 1988.

In 1980, the fetching chestnut Genuine Risk had become the second Kentucky Derby winner in three years for the Raise a Native stallion Exclusive Native. Neither Exclusive Native nor his sire had made any waves in the classics during their racing careers, but both had proven notably more capable of getting classic stock as sires.

Raise a Native sired 1969 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Majestic Prince, as well as Alydar, who finished second in each of the Triple Crown races behind Affirmed, the first classic winner by Exclusive Native.

Both Affirmed and Genuine Risk were scopy chestnuts with quality; their good looks made them noticeable on the racetrack and helped win thousands of fans for racing. Following her historic Derby success 65 years after Regret, Genuine Risk then finished second in a controversial Preakness when she was carried wide coming into the stretch by subsequent winner Codex (Arts and Letters). An objection lodged against the winner was not allowed.

Genuine Risk went to the Belmont Stakes, even without the Triple Crown as the historic attraction, but this time the beloved filly finished second to the mud-loving Temperence Hill (Stop the Music), who later was voted the champion 3-year-old colt.

No other filly previously had raced in each of the races of the Triple Crown, and Genuine Risk showed her high class and athletic ability as she finished in the money in each race. As a result, Genuine Risk ranks as one of the great race fillies of the past 50 years.

But just eight years later, another filly ran in each of the Triple Crown races.

A thrashing big filly, Winning Colors had brought $575,000 as a Keeneland July yearling, and the leggy daughter of the gray stallion Caro took some time to strengthen and fill out her big frame. After winning a pair of races at two, she advanced rapidly to top-class form in winning the Santa Anita Derby and then the Kentucky Derby. In the latter race, Winning Colors defeated the previous season's top juvenile colt, Forty Niner (Mr. Prospector) by a neck, with Risen Star (Secretariat) in third.

Brought back by trainer D. Wayne Lukas for the Preakness and a possible tilt for the Triple Crown, Winning Colors was challenged early and aggressively by Forty Niner, and at the finish, Risen Star was the fast-closing winner, with Winning Colors in third.

Both classic winners came back for the Belmont Stakes, and Risen Star prevailed by 15 lengths in the fast time of 2:26 2/5, which at the time was the second-fastest Belmont ever run behind only his great sire's 2:24. Since 1988, Easy Goer and A.P. Indy each have won the Belmont in 2:26.

Winning Colors had made the early pace, tried to stay with Risen Star when he was winding up his convincing impression of Secretariat, and finished unplaced in sixth. Winning Colors never won another top-level race, but the lovely gray did finish second in both the G1 Maskette and Breeders' Cup Distaff to the unbeaten Personal Ensign (Private Account).

In the latter race, run under cold and wet conditions at Churchill Downs later in 1989, Winning Colors had taken the lead and controlled the race to such an extent that Personal Ensign appeared to have little chance of even hitting the board as the field came into the stretch. The imperturbable bay filly refused to give up, gained with every stride through the stretch, and won her 13th and final start in one of the most exciting and heroic efforts imaginable.

These fillies secured the status of supreme champions by overcoming adversity and capturing victory when the probability or circumstances didn't favor them. If Swiss Skydiver can live up to these supreme examples of the race filly, she will make the Preakness one more great race to remember.

The post Bloodlines Presented By BloodstockAuction.Com: Swiss Skydiver Set To Join Sorority Of Top Fillies To Test Preakness Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post