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The Week in Review: Triple Crown, Let’s Talk…

Well, Triple Crown, now that the book has been closed on your 2023 campaign, it's time for your annual performance review.

Yes, I realize you're not a tangible, actual entity, and that your entire being is really just a concept based around the sequence of three historic horse races conducted over a five-week span every spring. As such, perhaps you think you're above a little constructive criticism. But we're living in a new era of accountability and I know you want to do your part to remain the focal point on which our sport so vitally depends. So let's begin…

For starters, thanks for saving the best performance for last. We all know you weren't technically “on the clock” this year, because no Triple Crown sweep was on the line this past Saturday.

Sure, there's always tremendous appeal in getting to potentially witness a once-in-a-generation horse run the Grade I table in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness S., and Belmont S. But some of the better overall experiences on Belmont Park's big day have been years in which no Triple Crown sweep was up for grabs. Although a 50,000 attendance cap would have been imposed either way, allowing 48,089 racegoers to enjoy a comparatively uncrowded afternoon of formful stakes action and big-event socialization without having to endure excruciatingly long lines for betting and basic amenities is always a plus.

The Belmont undercard stakes this year touched on just the right mix of intriguing and, at times, inspirational story lines. The distaff division is enjoying a nice run right now, anchored by a reliable cast of well-matched characters, with Clairiere (Curlin) executing an impeccably timed late run to win the GI Ogden Phipps S. for the second consecutive year. Caravel (Mizzen Mast), a Pennsylvania-bred mare with a penchant for unleashing triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures when sprinting on the turf against males, did so again on Saturday, extending her winning spree to five with a speed-centric victory in the GI Jaipur S. And although it hardly seems fair to keep relegating fan-fave Cody's Wish (Curlin) to undercard status when he's an A-list headliner in his own right, this deep closer again uncorked a loop-the-group move that wowed the crowd (112 Beyer!) and left a decent field reeling in the GI Metropolitan H., proving he currently has no peer in the dirt mile division while winning for the sixth straight time.

The crowning achievement, of course, was the gutsy score by 7-1 upsetter Arcangelo (Arrogate) in the Belmont S., propelling his conditioner, Jena Antonucci, into the history books as the first woman trainer of a Triple Crown race winner.

The “Test of a Champion' win by the underdog gray (who cost just $35,000 as a yearling) also capped a nimble feat of Triple Crown jockeying by Javier Castellano, who pulled off the unusual double of winning the Derby with Mage (Good Magic), and then the Belmont with Arcangelo after Mage ran third in the Preakness and bypassed the Belmont.

Despite being elected to the Hall of Fame in 2017, Derby and Belmont wins had eluded Castellano up until this season. We can now look forward to the drama of Castellano possibly having to choose between riding either Mage or Arcangelo should the Derby and Belmont winners cross paths later on this summer, perhaps in the GI Travers S. Regardless of which one he opts for, it's a nice problem to ponder.

But please, Triple Crown, in future years, spare us the “smoke show” that preceded this year's Belmont Stakes Day, forcing the cancellation of Thursday's racing at Belmont Park and almost putting the big day in doubt until the air cleared.

For certain, dangerous air quality because of forest fires hundreds of miles away is out of your direct control. But the unhealthy haze and apocalyptic-looking yellow skies did happen on your watch, Triple Crown, and like it or not, the sport is going to have to reckon with–and have contingency plans for–similar adverse environmental circumstances down the road. Get ready for a summer of becoming just as familiar with the abbreviation AQI (air quality index) as you are with AQU (Aqueduct).

Winding the watch back five weeks, what stands out is how the entire complexion of the Triple Crown pivoted on the morning of the Derby, when morning-line favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Forte (Violence) was compelled to scratch because of a right front foot bruise. That news overshadowed the defection of not one, but three top California-based contenders–Practical Move (Practical Joke), Geaux Rocket Ride (Candy Ride {Arg}) and Skinner (Curlin)–because they had all spiked fevers earlier in the week.

And although the 15-1 victory by the small-framed Mage had a very likeable “little horse that could” vibe about it, the industry never got to capitalize on that story line because of the sobering and oppressive news of the 12 Thoroughbred deaths at Churchill Downs during the early portion of the Derby meet, a crisis that to this point has not been shown to have any exact or common cause.

Mage managed to win the first leg of the Triple Crown in just lifetime start number four. That's great for the colt and his connections, but not necessarily ideal in terms of adding to the current “less is more” trend of racing top-level sophomores so sparingly. Too many horses are being aimed for the Triple Crown with only two races between the first Saturday in November and the first Saturday in May, diminishing the value of being able to enjoy and assess emerging stars.

Underscoring how the Derby itself is devolving into a be-all/end-all, one-shot endeavor at the expense of the Triple Crown race that follows it, for the first time in 75 years, Mage was the only horse out of the Derby to enter the Preakness. That hadn't happened since 1948, when Citation scared off a large portion of his competition en route to his Triple Crown sweep. Mage didn't so much “scare off” his rivals this year as the connections of those horses hewed to the increasingly standard script that calls for post-Louisville bubble wrap and rest instead of crab cakes and robust competition in Baltimore.

As a result, the Preakness this year lured only seven to the entry box. Two of them were Maryland-based longshots and two others were taking a shot chiefly because they had earned paid-for starting berths by winning minor prep stakes earlier in the year.

National Treasure (Quality Road) ended up sleep-walking the Preakness field on the front end. His slow-paced victory was not an artistic success, and the lack of depth in the middle jewel did spur the predictable assortment of columns and social media opinionizing advocating for restructuring the Triple Crown series to better align with the realities of race-spacing.

While fiddling with the Triple Crown schedule remains more of a thought experiment than an actual movement that has traction, the sport is most certainly going to have to brace for a near-term tradition jolt in time for the 2025 Belmont S.

After the 2024 edition, Belmont Park will undergo its projected $455-million teardown and rebuild, and the New York Racing Association will have to decide where to stage the concluding jewel of the series in what is expected to be a one-year interim until the reimagined version of Belmont Park opens.

Moving the Belmont S. to Aqueduct–like during 1963 through 1967, when the current version of Belmont was under construction–is an option. But heading upstate to Saratoga Race Course would also be a tantalizing tweak to tradition.

Are you up for it, Triple Crown?

This concludes your annual performance review. We'll score it a C for both the Derby and the Preakness this year. The Belmont rates an A-minus.

In terms of the overall series, we'll call it a “work in progress.” That's because the sport can always benefit by leaving room for–and expecting–Triple Crown improvement.

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National Treasure, Red Route One Work for Belmont

GI Preakness S. winner National Treasure (Quality Road) worked five furlongs in :59.55 seconds over Belmont Park's main track on Monday in preparation for Saturday's $1.5 million GI Belmont S. With exercise rider Erick Garcia aboard, the colt galloped out six furlongs in 1:11.20 and seven furlongs in 1:25.20.

“He worked very well this morning,” trainer Bob Baffert's assistant, Jimmy Barnes, said. “It's a big track and you can find yourself lost out there. Erick did an excellent job working him and now we're just waiting for the race.”

National Treasure is owned by the partnership of SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan. Hall of Famer John Velazquez will be aboard for the 1 1/2-mile Classic.

Also working Monday was Winchell Thoroughbreds' Red Route One (Gun Runner), who posted a half-mile in :50.20 over Belmont Park's training track. The colt most recently finished fourth behind National Treasure in the Preakness.

“I thought he went beautiful,” Toby Sheets, trainer Steve Asmussen's Belmont-based assistant, said. “It was nice and fluid and he came back with good energy. I'm very happy with him. We wanted to be out on the track before it got really busy. He's doing everything right and I have no complaints.”

Raise Cain (Violence), winner of the GIII Gotham S. and most recently eighth in the GI Kentucky Derby will skip the Belmont, trainer Ben Colebrook confirmed Monday. The colt will instead go postward the following day in the GIII Matt Winn S., which was originally scheduled to be run at Churchill Downs, but will now be run at Ellis Park.

“It shifted to Ellis and the distance changed to a mile and an eighth…That kind of moved the needle,” Colebrook explained.

Post positions for the 155th Belmont will be drawn Tuesday morning at 11:05 a.m. ET.

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Op/Ed: No More Dirt

In the wake of the tragic deaths of 12 horses at Churchill Downs, the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) has called for an emergency summit. This presents both a moment of leadership for HISA and an important test for the independent directors of the Churchill Downs Corporation to protect shareholder interests and ensure the survival of the entire horse racing industry. They must step up and meet the moment or step down. This can be achieved by ending dirt racing in America and transitioning to synthetic surfaces.

These heartbreaking events in recent weeks have forced the horse racing industry to confront a harsh reality. On average, two Thoroughbred horses lose their lives every day on U.S. tracks. If we fail to take decisive action, the Triple Crown and horse racing itself may soon be mourned as relics of the past. Animal rights groups, emboldened by each equine death, are gaining traction in their campaign against horse racing. The calls to ban or severely restrict the sport grow louder with each life lost. We cannot afford to lose this race for the soul and survival of our sport.

Tradition holds great power in our sport, with our most prestigious races historically being run on dirt tracks. However, the stark and troubling statistics demand a shift in thinking. We must abandon old norms and embrace new practices that prioritize the safety and welfare of our noble equine athletes. The benefits of synthetic tracks are not mere conjecture; they are a proven truth. Their superior safety record and fewer injuries make their adoption not just an option but an ethical imperative.

Skeptics may argue that altering the character of the Triple Crown races would alienate fans. However, declining attendance at Thoroughbred races tells a different story. Fans are turning their backs on a sport they once adored, disheartened by the undeniable fact that their entertainment comes at a deadly price. When other sports have bravely evolved to improve safety and gameplay, we must question why horse racing clings to traditions that increasingly prove deadly.

Certainly, progress has been made. Since 2009, fatal injuries during races have declined by 37.5%. But when we consider that synthetic tracks have been proven to be three times safer than dirt tracks, it becomes glaringly apparent that we have only scratched the surface of what we must achieve. We have solid evidence, compelling data, and a clear path forward. It is time we summon the courage and resolve to embark on this path. Ironically, despite their proven safety record, synthetic tracks are in decline. This is primarily because our marquee Triple Crown events remain steadfastly tied to dirt. The stubborn adherence to tradition in our industry's pinnacle races is a disparity we can no longer afford. Shifting the surface of the Triple Crown to synthetic would be a revolutionary step, igniting an industry-wide transformation and ensuring a safer, fairer field for our equine athletes.

This is where the independent directors of the Churchill Downs Corporation can make a historic difference. Independent directors have played a crucial role in preserving shareholder value and rebuilding consumer trust for some of the world's largest companies.

In 2015, Volkswagen faced a scandal involving emissions test cheating, leading to the resignation of the company's CEO and the appointment of a new board of directors, the majority of whom were independent. The new board took swift action to address the scandal, and Volkswagen is now working to rebuild its reputation.

In 2017, companies such as Uber and The Weinstein Company appointed independent directors to address workplace harassment following a series of scandals in that regard.

In 2018, companies like Equifax and Marriott appointed independent directors to improve their cybersecurity measures after experiencing a series of data breaches.

Today, the challenges facing both the Churchill Downs Corporation and our industry provide an opportunity for its independent directors to lead by proactively and boldly addressing the crisis of equine safety instead of reacting to a growing regulatory and societal movement to ban the sport.

That is why I am calling on the independent directors of the Churchill Downs Corporation, Daniel P. Harrington, MBA, CPA, Ulysses Lee Bridgeman Jr., and Robert L. Fealy, CPA, to get on board today and publicly support this change.

The responsibility lies with horse racing's governing bodies, influential race track directors, and all key stakeholders to rally behind a transition to synthetic tracks. Their public endorsement and commitment to safer racing conditions would signal the beginning of the transformative change our industry desperately needs. But Churchill Downs Corporation must lead the way.

Fortunately, we are not without hope. NYRA's Belmont Track, a vital component of the Triple Crown, is already leading by example, planning to install a synthetic track for its 2024 spring meet. This serves as the spark we need to ignite a safety revolution.

Next year marks the historic 150th anniversary of the Triple Crown. This milestone should be more than a nostalgic reflection on the past; it should be a fervent pledge for a safer future. A future where our sport remains a thrilling spectacle but also evolves into a beacon of safety, integrity, and respect for our equine athletes.

The prestigious Triple Crown races–the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness S., and the Belmont S.–now stand on the edge of a daunting, dark abyss. Each life lost serves as a deafening alarm, signaling that change is urgently needed and indeed horse racing as a whole hangs in the balance. We owe it to our equine athletes, our loyal fans, and future generations to ensure that our sport does not crumble into a mournful memory of bygone times.

We stand at the threshold of a monumental shift. Our response to this crisis must be immediate, bold, and unwavering. The clarion call for a race towards a safer future is sounding. Switching surfaces will mean fewer breakdowns and fewer drugs in the sports. Let us answer this call with the courage and determination our horses display every time they take to the track.

This is our defining moment. Let us ensure that the Triple Crown not only continues to sparkle with excitement and glory, but also radiates a renewed commitment to the safety and well-being of our equine companions. The reins of the future of horse racing are in our hands. We must grasp them firmly and steer our sport towards a safer, more responsible era. The heart of horse racing beats in the chest of every horse that runs for us; let us honor them by championing a sport that safeguards their lives.

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If Baseball Can Change, So Can the Triple Crown

Baseball had a problem. Because games were taking way too long, because stolen bases were near an all-time low, because defensive shifts were cutting down on offense, the product that is baseball wasn't as good as it could be. Too many boring, interminable, bad games could only mean one thing, that fans were and would continue to lose interest in the national pastime.

Sound familiar? Horse racing has a Triple Crown where the product has been weakened because trainers, who simply refuse to run their horses back on short rest, are reluctant to run racing's stars in all three races, and in particularly in the GI Preakness. The Triple Crown is the sport's most important asset and the one product that the general sports fan will pay attention to. The sport can't afford to allow anything that limits its appeal or diminishes its excellence. When you now get a Preakness every year where you have to hold your breath that the Derby winner will actually run and the rest of the field is made up of a horse or two that straggled across the finish line at Churchill Downs plus a few new uninspiring faces you have a problem and a series that needs improvement.

With bold new rules that arrived this season, baseball has been fixed and most agree that the game has never been better or more exciting. Now, it's time for the Triple Crown to do the same. It, too, needs to be fixed and the obvious solution is to extend the time between races.

I cannot believe that I just wrote that. For decades, I have defended the Triple Crown, the spacing of the races and implored the industry to not change a thing. But now I realize, thanks in part to my interest in baseball, that I was putting tradition over practicality. Tradition is fine but not when it means being so stubborn that you don't change with the times, not when it means that we keep getting Preaknesses like this one.

Baseball could have made the same mistakes and remain tradition-bound. Forcing the pitchers to deliver a pitch within 15 seconds (or 20 if there is a man on base) is a radical change. So are the new anti-shift rules, which meant players could no longer be positioned wherever a team's analytics department dictated. Because the bases are bigger and a pitcher is limited so far as how many times he can throw over to a base, teams are starting to steal again. The biggest change is that games are now, on average, about 30 minutes shorter than they were in 2022. Everyone loves the new rules and the new game.

The NBA game changed dramatically in 1979 when the three-point shot was added. No one is complaining. That sport has never been more popular.

It's great that GI Kentucky Derby winner Mage (Good Magic) isn't pulling a Rich Strike (Keen Ice) and will run. But where is runner-up Two Phil's (Hard Spun)? His trainer, Larry Rivelli, was quoted this week saying that even if he had won the Derby he's not sure that he would have run back. Where is third-place finisher Angel of Empire (Classic Empire)? Both Two Phil's and Angel of Empire turned in terrific efforts in the Derby and would be 4-1 or less in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, which goes for $1.65 million. That's a position any owner should love. Yet, they won't be taking part. Where is GI Blue Grass winner Tapit Trice (Tapit)? Oh, that's right, Todd Pletcher never runs in the Preakness. All we're getting from the Derby is Mage as fourth-place finisher Disarm (Gun Runner) defected Monday to wait for Saratoga. The best of the new faces is First Mission (Street Sense). He has a chance to turn out to be a good horse, but let's not forget that his biggest win came in a minor Derby prep, the GIII Lexington S.

Part of my stubbornness was that I hate it that trainers insist on having so much time between races and on running so infrequently. It's bad for the sport and limits the amount of money an owner can make. To me, it makes no sense. Horses used to run 25 times a year and three weeks between races was considered a layoff. It's scientifically impossible that the breed has changed so much that five races a year or a only month between races is something that taxes them.

I also used to think that extending the time between the races would mean the task of sweeping the series would be easier and that future Triple Crown winners wouldn't match up to the ones that came before them. In hindsight, the Triple Crown has never been easier to win because the Preakness can turn into an uncontested layup for the Derby winner.

Sure, I'd rather see a change of mind-set where trainers target the entire series as it is, but with the current scheduling of the Triple Crown that's not going to happen. There's often talk that the Preakness should be run a week later, three weeks after the Derby. Then there would be another three weeks to the GI Belmont S. That wouldn't work. To the modern trainer, that's still not enough time between races.

To keep as many of the best 3-year-olds in the series from start to finish, you'd probably need six weeks between races. But that would be overdoing it. The best solution is to have each race run on the first Saturday of the month. This year the Derby would have been on May 6, the Preakness on June 3 and the Belmont on July 1. I'm sure there are some factors that I haven't taken into account, like how would the networks react? The new set up would also likely weaken races like the GI Haskell S. and the GI Travers S.

But there's no doubt that a Triple Crown where there are four weeks between each races would be a better Triple Crown than one where three races are crammed into five weeks. It's all about the product we are selling to the fans.
If you're going to be in Baltimore for Preakness week you might want to check out the red-hot Orioles. They play the Angels and Shohei Ohtani on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Go catch a game. You'll enjoy it. The sport's never been better.

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