Making Claims: Joe Nevills’ Five Fearless Predictions For The Bloodstock Market In 2021

In “Making Claims,” Paulick Report bloodstock editor Joe Nevills shares his opinions on the Thoroughbred industry from the breeding and sales arenas to the racing world and beyond.

Making predictions at the beginning of 2020 meant starting with certainty and taking a wild detour after COVID-19 changed the world. Assuming the distribution of the vaccine goes to plan and normalcy returns by the end of 2021, we could see the inverse.

Regardless of the start and end points on a global scale, the bloodstock market rolls on as ever. With a new year ahead of us, I have five predictions for how the marketplace will play out in 2021.

1) Into Mischief Will Repeat As Leading General Sire

Into Mischief had a season for the ages in 2020, setting the single-season record for progeny earnings, spearheaded by probable Horse of the Year Authentic, and Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Gamine.

The Spendthrift Farm resident has been set up for a long reign at the top, thanks to the two things that put any stallion in a position to succeed: quantity and quality in his books of mares. Arguably no other stallion in North America has a stronger pipeline of future runners to keep him at the top of the sire list for the foreseeable future.

Into Mischief is annually at or near the top of the list when The Jockey Club's Report of Mares Bred reveals the most active stallions of a given breeding season, and that was true in 2018, when the 2-year-olds of 2021 were conceived. He has 199 registered live foals among his 2-year-old crop of 2021, which is 41 more than next-closest Klimt. Adding that group to the list of later developers who will certainly mature into stars during their 3-year-old and 4-year-old seasons, that's a strong platoon of runners that figures to get stronger.

Furthermore, Into Mischief covered the strongest book of mares of his career in 2018. That fact was true for several years before that season, and it's certainly true for every season that's followed. Now that he's reached the top of the mountain, that doesn't figure on changing anytime soon.

2) The Report Of Mares Bred Will Continue To Decline, But Not By Much

I could go into all sorts of tiny details as to why the number of mares bred, and the ensuing foal crop, will continue to reach depths not seen in decades, but the simple reasoning here is, “Why wouldn't it?”

The commercial market is trending slightly downward; COVID-19 and its biological, social, and economic ramifications will still be a hindrance for most folks during the bulk of the breeding season; and purses are going to be a mixed bag in 2021 until live handle starts hitting the accounts in full force and supporting casinos are back at full capacity. In short, there just isn't a compelling reason to assume the number of mares added to production will surpass those taken out.

That doesn't mean the bottom's about to fall out, though. Last year's November sales displayed a “hold” market, both in terms of the horses that weren't cataloged and the ones that were bought back. This suggests that breeders are willing to ride out the current uncertainty with the hand they've got, instead of getting out altogether.

There's not a compelling reason to think the number of mares bred will go up, but there's also not a compelling reason to think they'll tank, either. We haven't found the bottom yet, but I think we're close.

3) Practical Joke Will Be The Leading Freshman Sire Of 2021

There are typically two roads to the top when it comes to the freshman sire race. One can flood the market with foals and succeed by attrition by getting a lot of runners into the winner's circle, particularly in minor stakes races (Overanalyze). Others are spearheaded by a star runner or two who vault them to the top with big performances in big spots like the Breeders' Cup (Cross Traffic, Dialed In, Nyquist). Sometimes, a true star will hit both targets (Uncle Mo, American Pharoah).

Practical Joke hits that sweet spot in between, where he has a ton of foals ready to go in his debut crop, and he was well-supported by home farm Ashford Stud and outside breeders. He has 147 juveniles of 2021, which is the fifth-most of any North American sire. He'll have plenty of bullets to fire.

Practical Joke also has the pedigree to back it up. His sire, Into Mischief, is one of the most proven sources of juvenile success going today. Practical Joke was himself an example of that success, taking home a pair of Grade 1 wins as a 2-year-old, and a third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Physically, Practical Joke is a ball of muscle, which should translate to an early developer who can get the job done around one turn. There's no reason to expect the Practical Jokes won't come out firing. If a few can get it done on the graded stakes level, he could run away with it.

4) The COVID-19 Vaccine Won't Change Much

There are a lot of industries where the COVID-19 vaccine figures to be a magic bullet to return things back to normal. Regardless of when that normalcy returns, and the general public can freely return to the races and sales, I don't expect the bloodstock market to experience quite the same sudden resurgence.

This is a market that was already starting to show fissures from the record-setting highs of a few years ago, and like many industries, the complications of COVID-19 sped up the downturn. Even if returns are up in 2021, there is a fair bit of ground to make up to bring things back to where they were, and that was going to be a challenge whether the world came to a grinding halt in 2020 or not.

Working in the market's favor is the fact that the sale calendar should largely be back to normal in 2021, after the initial uncertainty of last spring decimated the 2-year-old sale calendar and the first half of the yearling season. Assuming the schedule holds, the security of knowing when horses are going to be bought and sold should help both sides prepare appropriately.

We'll learn a lot from the early 2-year-old sales, which will not only will show us how buyers are feeling about spending money on racehorses, it will set the bankroll for a large chunk of the buyers during the ensuing yearling season. The yearling market felt the effects of the scrambled 2-year-old calendar and shaky economy in the spring of 2020, and this spring will either speed up that inertia or reverse it.

Perhaps most importantly, the reason the vaccine won't change much about the bloodstock market is that the bloodstock market went on without one in 2020, especially in the latter half of the year. There are some complications that figure on being eased once more people are able to travel freely, especially in terms of international buyers, but the climb back will not be as high as a business that's had to operate without one of its major sources of income, like a restaurant without a dining room.

More or less, life went on for horse trade in 2020. Because of that, there's not as much ground to make up when life starts to go on again for everyone else.

5) Get Stormy Makes The Leap

After covering 111 or more mares in his first two seasons at stud, things got quiet in the breeding shed for Crestwood Farm's Get Stormy.

At first, it was the usual lull that befalls many stallions in their third and fourth books. Then, his first couple seasons with runners on the track were solid, but lacked the superstars the market demands to line up the trailers on Spurr Road.

In 2018, Get Stormy's runners found their mojo. Got Stormy launched her superstar career with three stakes victories, including a Grade 3 score. The stallion also rung up Grade 3 wins that year with Storm the Hill and Go Noni Go, and he had a handful of others bring in graded stakes placings. He finished the 2018 season in the top five among third-crop sires by stakes winners and tied for second in that group by graded stakes winners.

Breeders took notice, and nearly doubled Get Stormy's book from 47 mares in 2018 to 86 mares in 2019. Between then and now, Got Stormy has become a true star of the turf, Fifty Five has become a millionaire, and Clyde's Image has multiple Grade 1 placings. Get Stormy was a top-10 sire by graded stakes winners on turf, and by total turf stakes winners in 2020, both with fewer starters than any active stallion ahead of him.

Get Stormy is still looking for his first serious juvenile runner, but he has the opportunity to send more 2-year-olds to post in 2021 than he's seen since his second crop hit the track in 2017. The stallion's foals conceived in 2019 had a roadmap to what makes a graded stakes-winning horse with Get Stormy, suggesting the quality and intent of the mares sent his way were clearer than before. This should, in turn, give him the best chance of his life of getting over the hump with a good 2-year-old.

Looking at the breeding season, Get Stormy's stock as a sire of runners has been on the rise, and his average yearling sale price has been climbing steadily year-over-year. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect Get Stormy to eclipse 100 mares in 2021, especially at a completely reasonable stud fee of $7,500.

Get Stormy is on his way to becoming a made man in Kentucky. This year could be the one that fully establishes it.

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Kentucky Sires for 2021: First Juveniles–Part I

And so we come to the group standing on the brink. The group facing the moment of truth, when their most precocious stock enters the gate and offers some initial indication as to their competence for the task for which, ostensibly at least, they were bred.

As such, this should perhaps be the moment we double down. That’s what we would do, at any rate, if we had real faith in the choices we have made for our mares. If we have selected their mates well, then people will be wanting more of the same at the 2023 yearling sales–and we can hope to be rewarded for meeting increased demand with what tends to be diminished supply.

As it is, the imminent exposure of young stallions’ “commercial” credentials to the unsparing examination of the racetrack instead prompts most breeders to flee in terror, sending their mares to those safely unproven rookies who have replaced them on the conveyor belt.

Their logic is perfectly coherent. The whole premise of backing an unproven new stallion is that he will not have been tested by the time you take your yearling to market. And the value of 2021 covers is bound to appear very different, one way or another, in the 2023 sales ring: these sires will by then have a third crop of juveniles on the track, and their slower-maturing, two-turn types will also have shown their hand. As I say, that should actually be an advantage…if, that is, we really believe that we might be catching a wave. But I guess very few breeders can afford the risk of trusting their own opinions to that extent.

Even at the best of times, then, you could expect farms to help this group over the imminent bump in the road. In the prevailing environment, with fee cuts being made across so many rosters, there will surely be particularly good value to be found among stallions whose abrupt loss of commercial traction is every bit as capricious as the hectic subscription of their debut books. After all, those best equipped to sire the type of Thoroughbred we should covet most–namely, one that can run a second turn on the first Saturday in May–will hardly disclose their full potential even now their first crop is being broken and trained.

Nor, as we noted of the weanling market in the previous instalment of this series, can we put too much faith in the reception of these youngsters at the sales. Yes, professional horsemen have at least had the chance to draw some inferences from living, breathing stock presented to their inspection. Moreover, they have been able to assess a much wider sample. Much as with weanling averages, however, those rare occasions when the market challenges the premium implied in stallion fees–whether for better or worse–do not tend to work out very reliably.

As with his weanlings, for instance, the most conspicuous disappointment of the 2018 yearling market, relative to his opening fee, was Constitution. From much the biggest offering of the intake, 98 yearlings, his average sale could not match those of Carpe Diem, Bayern, Tonalist and Lea, to name four whose fees have slipped even as Constitution has meanwhile soared from $25,000 to $85,000.

Admittedly, the yearling market “found” Cairo Prince the year before, elevating animals he had conceived at $10,000 to second place in the averages. But he was sandwiched between two horses whose returns slavishly obeyed the assumptions invited by their fees: Will Take Charge was top, having started out at a class-high $30,000; and Verrazano was third, having similarly started higher than almost all the rest at $22,500. Those two are respectively now down to $5,000 and Brazil.

Once again, then, let’s be wary of drawing too many conclusions, whether positive or negative, from the “performance” at the yearling sales of those stallions who will launch their first runners in 2021.

Sadly, of course, the most expensive recruit of the intake is no longer with us. The tragic loss of Arrogate (Unbridled’s Song) leaves GUN RUNNER (Candy Ride {Arg}–Quiet Giant by Giant’s Causeway) as its outstanding prospect after starting out at Three Chimneys as Horse of the Year at $70,000.

He gets a generous clip to $50,000 to keep the door revolving. Opening books of 171 and 166 struck a balance between numerical opportunity without totally inundating the market, and he maintained numbers last spring at 156. Of 71 yearlings into the ring, he found a new home for 46 at a class-high $246,413.

That has to go down as a very solid start and, while you can’t expect a horse that reached his peak at four to be siring sprint winners at Keeneland in April, nor should we forget how he came to the boil at the Fair Grounds before running third to Nyquist (Uncle Mo) in the GI Kentucky Derby. It spoke well of his substance that he was still on the go in late November, winning the GI Clark H.; and he emerged much stronger than did Arrogate from their clash in the desert the following spring, going on an unbeaten spree of five Grade Is.

The appeal to breeders, aside from his class and constitution, was that it all had such an obvious source: his dam is a Grade II-winning half-sister to another Horse of the Year in Saint Liam (Saint Ballado) with a plenty of supporting quality close up. In broader brushstrokes, his page entwines two branches of the Fappiano dynasty, both away from the Unbridled highway: obviously he extends the line through Candy Ride, but he also brings in Fappiano’s son Quiet American (with his dynamic genetics) as sire of his second dam.

All told, Gun Runner looks abundantly qualified to build on whatever promise he can show in what will, after all, only be his opening skirmishes.

Candy Ride’s growing stature as a sire of sires helped another of his sons emerge as the standout performer of the intake at the yearling sales. Yes, we’ve urged circumspection about the market’s verdict, but Claiborne priced MASTERY (Candy Ride {Arg}–Steady Course by Old Trieste) very fairly at $25,000 and, being no less reliable in the conservative management of his books (139/143/138), they have given their clients a platform for a most rewarding debut at the sales.

Mastery was gold on our “value podium” last year and it feels very hard to dislodge him after he sold as many as 64 of 79 yearlings into the ring at a knockout yield of $129,421–surpassed only by Gun Runner and Arrogate–with mares commensurate with their fees.

There’s no doubting the terrific natural talent exhibited by Mastery in a career that contrasted poignantly with that of the teak Gun Runner, derailed as he was in the very act of announcing himself the horse to beat in the Derby. It plainly serves his cause, commercially, that he was a seven-length Grade I winner at two, but his pedigree underpins his appeal to all breeding agendas, including any that might be disposed to retain a filly.

For his dam is a three-parts sister to the Pennsylvania stalwart Jump Start, and their mother, in turn, is by one broodmare sire legend (Storm Cat) out of a full-sister to another in Miswaki. You couldn’t ask for better seeding of the bottom line, once you get past a dam by one of A.P. Indy’s less fashionable sons: Storm Cat, Mr. Prospector, Buckpasser, Princequillo, Nasrullah. With looks to match, Mastery demands fidelity even among those generally inclined to back off stallions at this precarious stage in their careers. It just feels like the force is with him.

The other stallion to break six figures with his yearling average was PRACTICAL JOKE (Into Mischief–Halo Humor by Distorted Humor), who parlayed a $30,000 opening fee at Ashford into 74 sales (of 92 offered) at $120,243.

This was another Grade I winner at two, in both the Champagne and Hopeful. He stretched out for fifth in the GI Kentucky Derby, but reiterated that Into Mischief speed was his trademark when dropping back for his sophomore Grade I in the H. Allen Jerkens S.

No less than Mastery, Practical Joke has conformed to the standard formula of his host farm with no fewer than 220 mares in his first book and 200 in his second. He maintained turnover with another 188 guests last spring, so he certainly has numbers behind him. That brings its customary risks, but these are acknowledged by consecutive cuts to $25,000 last year and $22,500 this time round.

We know that the usual rules don’t apply to Into Mischief, whose promising start as a sire of sires doubtless contributed (along with his own physical allure) to the popularity of Practical Joke at the sales. But it must be acknowledged that the champion sire’s alchemical powers are well demonstrated by his ability to get such a proficient racehorse from a family as plain as this one.

Practical Joke was well held in third when CLASSIC EMPIRE (Pioneerof the Nile–Sambuca Classica by Cat Thief) just denied Not This Time the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The runner-up has set high standards in their new career and Classic Empire, having joined Practical Joke at Ashford, looks pretty eligible to meet them.

He consolidated his 2-year-old championship in the GI Arkansas Derby, and was only denied the GI Preakness by the head of Cloud Computing (Maclean’s Music). Unfortunately, that proved to be his final appearance, but there’s a beguiling shape to his page: rather like Mastery, his dam is by one of the less glamorous sons of an iconic broodmare sire but the next three dams are by Miswaki, Hoist The Flag and Princequillo–and in this neighborhood it becomes an ancestry shared with Harlan’s Holiday, Boldnesian and Ride the Rails. The second dam was Grade I-placed, so there’s plenty to be working on here.

Nonetheless, Classic Empire has just taken his fourth consecutive cut, now half his opening fee at $17,500. Respite on the fee helped him maintain 122 mares last spring after an opening book of 185 had slipped to 104 in his second year. That big first crop obviously produced plenty of traffic into the ring, with 92 yearlings offered, and he rehoused 66 of them at $89,613. Like all these stallions, he’s at a crossroads now, but recycling his juvenile prowess would certainly keep him in the game.

Starting alongside Practical Joke and Classic Empire at Ashford, CUPID (Tapit–Pretty ‘N Smart by Beau Genius) corralled a staggering 223 mares in his debut book. No less breathtaking, however, was his giddy descent to just 53 mares the following year. I don’t know which of these numbers is more absurd. There’s no way he had done anything like enough to earn a book surpassed nationally only by Into Mischief himself; but nor, when his first foals were barely slithering into the straw, were there any grounds for deserting him with equal haste. What an example of the panicked, neurotic herd instincts of commercial breeders today!

Cupid steadied the ship at 75 mares last spring and, now trading at $5,000 from an opening $12,500, he’s still entitled to show that those who backed him in his first year were right. His yearlings were processed efficiently enough, after all, a very healthy ratio of 68 sold from 82 offered at $46,786.

No surprise, perhaps, in one who himself made $900,000 as a yearling; and his Grade II-placed dam has produced three other stakes/graded stakes winners. After such a dazing start to his stud career, it’ll be fascinating to see which way things go from here. Unraced at two, he won his Grade I around two turns at four, so he’s hardly standardized to the industrial model. But I like a second dam by Vice Regent when Cupid’s damsire is out of a mare by his brother Viceregal, so Cupid could yet land his dart.

Another to join growing competition for the legacy of Gainesway’s champion sire is MOHAYMEN (Tapit–

Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union). Shadwell clients made the most of a very generous price, realizing an average $52,506–seven times his $7,500 fee–for 31 sold of 40 offered.

This is a pretty interesting horse: an unbeaten and accomplished juvenile, including in the GII Nashua S. and GII Remsen S., he went on to Florida and won the GII Holy Bull S. and GII Fountain of Youth S. before running fourth in the Derby. Unfortunately, he lost his way thereafter, but the looks and page that qualified him as a $2.2-million yearling stand undiminished, and his half-brother New Year’s Day (Street Cry {Ire}) obviously has somewhat more resonance than a couple of years ago. Their dam was a dual Grade II winner, also Grade I-placed, and Tapit doesn’t tend to get too many who land running quite like Mohaymen did at two. (And the page has a nice little knot between Tapit’s third dam and her brother Relaunch, whose son Honour and Glory sired Mohaymen’s granddam).

With 121 mares in his first book, Mohaymen could well make his presence felt in the freshmen’s table. Obviously he is not on the most commercial of farms, down to 51 mares in his second year and 59 last spring, but he definitely has potential to renew momentum from here.

This instalment of our ongoing series will be completed in tomorrow’s edition. Part II includes stallions like Klimt, Unified, Connect, Keen Ice, Lord Nelson, American Freedom, Midnight Storm and Gormley, along with our latest value “podium”.

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Mo Town Weanling Colt Tops Keeneland Session With $185,000 Bid

A weanling colt from the first crop of Mo Town sold for $185,000 to Davant Latham, agent, to record the highest price of Saturday's sixth session of the Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.

With the purchase, Latham was the day's leading buyer.

The colt, who was consigned by Alliance Sales Agency, agent, is from the family of champion Safely Kept and Grade 2 winner Venetian Harbor. His dam is Mybrokenhome, by Broken Vow.

On Saturday, Keeneland sold 265 horses for $6,278,400, for an average of $23,692 and a median of $15,000.

Gross sales are $134,979,400 to date for 1,247 horses, for an average of $108,243 and a median of $55,000.

Wesley Ward paid $170,000 for a weanling filly by Practical Joke from the family of Grade 2 winner Flag Down, Grade/Group 3 winners Adventist and Dijeerr and stakes winners Isn't He Clever and Sharp Writer. Four Star Sales, agent, consigned the filly, whose dam is the Elusive Quality mare Yankee Bright.

Dane, a 3-year-old mare by Dansili in foal to Demarchelier (GB), sold for $150,000 to H.F. Farm. She is out of the Group 2-winning Sadler's Wells mare Peinture Rare (IRE) and from the family of French Horse of the Year Peintre Celebre. Dane was consigned by Claiborne Farm, agent.

Randal Family Trust spent $130,000 to acquire Thats Our Princess, a 10-year-old mare by Curlin who is in foal to Nyquist. Consigned by Woods Edge Farm, agent, Thats Our Princess is out of stakes winner Princess Ruckus, by Bold Ruckus, and is the dam of stakes-placed Appella. She is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner City Boy and stakes winner Vibank and is from the family of Canadian champion Langfuhr.

Four Star Sales, agent, also consigned Weabie, a 4-year-old winning daughter of Distorted Humor carrying her first foal by Blame and sold to Ashview Farm for $120,000. Out of Centrique, by Malibu Moon, Weabie is from the family of multiple graded stakes winner Sun and Snow and stakes winners Penny Marie, Snow Peak, Quatre Saisons and Earth Sound.

Selling for $110,000 to TK Stables was the winning 3-year-old Fed Biz filly Blood Curdling, a racing or broodmare prospect consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent. Out of Shriek, by Street Cry (IRE), she is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Paid Up Subscriber and from the family of Grade 2 winner Stanley Park and Grade 3 winner Top Kisser.

With sales of $1,185,500 for 45 horses, Lane's End, agent, was the session's leading consignor.

The November Sale resumes Sunday and runs through Wednesday, Nov. 18 with all sessions beginning at 10 a.m. ET.

The entire sale is streamed live on Keeneland.com.

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Uncle Mo, Justify Top 2021 Ashford Stud Roster

Coolmore America has announced its fees for the 2021 breeding season.

Joining the roster are Grade 1 Allen Jerkens winner Echo Town and multiple G1SW Maximum Security whose fees will be announced upon retirement. Also new is Caravaggio who re-locates to Kentucky from Coolmore's headquarters in Ireland.

“Our established sires have enjoyed great success on the racetrack this year, but in recognition of the challenging times we find ourselves in, we have reduced the fees of all of our sires yet to have runners with the one exception of Mendelssohn who we have probably under-priced all along,” said Ashford's director of sales Charlie O'Connor. “We have three exciting new additions to our roster and we look forward to watching Echo Town and Maximum Security continue to show their brilliance on the racecourse before they retire.”

Following are the advertised fees for Ashford Stud's 2021 stallion roster:

Air Force Blue – $10,000
American Pharoah – $100,000
Caravaggio (NEW) – $25,000
Classic Empire – $17,500
Competitive Edge – $5,000
Cupid – $5,000
Echo Town (NEW) – TBA
Justify – $125,000
Lookin at Lucky – $20,000
Maximum Security (NEW) – TBA
Mendelssohn – $35,000
Mo Town – $7,500
Munnings – $40,000
Practical Joke – $22,500
Tale of the Cat – $12,500
Uncle Mo – $175,000

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