Breeding Digest: High Stakes Paying Off With Sierra Leone

Among the winners at the last Breeders' Cup, what was it that separated White Abarrio (Race Day), Goodnight Olive (Ghostzapper) and Nobals (Noble Mission {GB})) from the rest? Answer: they were the only ones that had changed hands at an American yearling auction, respectively for $7,500, $170,000 and $3,500.

Even that lavish investor in the yearling market, Mike Repole, won the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile with a homebred. Except for a couple of European turf juveniles, the rest of the show was a parade of champions raised by “end users”: a couple apiece for Godolphin and Juddmonte, plus one each for the programs operated by Coolmore, Cheveley Park Stud and George Krikorian.

Now, to be fair, they all reached that coveted winner's enclosure with the help of stallions beyond most pockets, with Curlin the most radiant example. And, besides, we're obviously peering through a narrow and fairly random window on the overall state of the game.

That said, if this meeting is where we all want to end up, it would be very hard to look at this sample and conclude that the commercial market is functioning very effectively.

That won't bother most people, so long as they can keep eking out some kind of profit from a fiendishly precarious trade. But perhaps it's a useful context to remind ourselves of the fundamental equilibrium on which the whole market depends: namely, that you need to retain sufficient mystery for the little guy still to have a chance; but values meanwhile have to stand up enough for the big investors to feel as though they can get some kind of edge. Put it another way: if the sale-topper won the Derby every year, the whole business would collapse overnight; but if a Rich Strike won every year, well, the whole business would collapse overnight.

Anyway, the point is that every now and then the industry needs a 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) to come along and make sense of what, in his case, was the second highest price paid at an American yearling auction in 2022.

His first three dams are, respectively, a juvenile Grade I winner, a dual Grade I runner-up (also at two) and a Grade I sprint winner; and, as luck should have it, he belongs to the third crop of what has meanwhile proved the most phenomenal young sire of recent times. When you spend $2.3 million on a colt that has never had a saddle on his back, you're obviously wagering primarily on a potential stallion career. And, with those Twin Spires taking tangible shape on the horizon, the partners who placed this particular bet are still very much in the game.

Sierra Leone was bred by Debby M. Oxley from her homebred GI Darley Alcibiades S. winner Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon), whose dam Darling My Darling (Deputy Minister) had been bought by Oxley's husband John for $300,000 as a Keeneland September yearling in 1998.

Darling My Darling's own mother, GI Ballerina H. winner Roamin Rachel (Mining), was sold in the same ring that November, to Nobuo Tsunoda for $750,000–a price vindicated the following summer when Darling My Darling (her second foal) won on debut at Saratoga before consecutive runner-up finishes at Grade I level.

Roamin Rachel had been sold carrying a Storm Cat filly, who managed a single start, but has since produced three group winners in Japan; Roamin Rachel, for her part, was sent for her next cover to Sunday Silence, and came up with Japanese Horse of the Year Zenno Rob Roy (Jpn).

Heavenly Love's half-sister by Congrats, herself Grade II-placed, has meanwhile given the family tree additional Japanese luster through her son Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}), who is about to try to give the family a second consecutive weekend in the sophomore spotlight in the G3 Saudi Derby.

Even without that later boon to his page, then, everything was in place for Sierra Leone on paper. Heavenly Love herself admittedly proved unable to build on her juvenile success, albeit she did manage third in the GIII Regret S.; while her first foal by Uncle Mo did little more than retrieve the covering fee. Sierra Leone must have been a very different physical proposition, then, to be topping the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale.

It had been prescient of his breeders, of course, to persevere with Gun Runner at precisely the point most commercial breeders back off from exposure by a stallion's first runners on the track. The Three Chimneys top gun would take the customary trim in fee the following year, from his opening $70,000 to $50,000, but his numbers held up throughout: 156 mares kept the faith in 2020, leaving Sierra Leone among 120 live foals in his third crop. These also include the fillies who consolidated another stellar weekend for their sire by finishing second and third in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. and first and second in the Sunland Park Oaks.

We have long since got over any surprise that Gun Runner's first crop should have been so precocious, making him not just champion freshman but leading sire of 2-year-olds, despite himself having thrived with maturity. As a result, however, fewer people remarked how his second crop actually made precisely the kind of tepid start that might have been readily indulged in their predecessors. In fact, as juveniles they didn't muster a single stakes success between them. Four, however, proceeded to win graded stakes as sophomores last year.

Gun Runner's third crop tilted the balance back the other way. Of 45 entering the gate as juveniles last year, four won graded stakes–including Locked, already his seventh Grade I winner and himself about to resume the Derby trail.

Sierra Leone missed becoming the crop's fifth juvenile graded winner by just a nose, in the GII Remsen S., but has now emulated his sire by winning the GII Risen Star S. off a layoff. Whether his focus was aided by blinkers, or he's simply becoming more professional with experience, he saw the race out rather better than when worried out of the Remsen, despite that wide sweep for home and runner-up Track Phantom (Quality Road) having controlled the tempo at his leisure.

Track Phantom had cost $500,000 at Keeneland September, where the third Catching Freedom (Constitution) was similarly found in Book 1, for $575,000. Given that Catching Freedom looked like a horse still learning his trade, this proved a race to give fresh credibility to the yearling market. Perhaps we don't have to tear up those catalogues just yet.

'Beach'-Combers Share Godolphin Success

As already acknowledged, breed-to-race programs are only so dominant because they tend to match their patienc–such a rare commodity in the commercial sector–with similarly uncommon financial resources. But they still need discipline, and the fatalism to accept that the culls essential even to the most lavish operations will occasionally convert years of work and expense into an overnight dividend for somebody else.

The Godolphin team's delight over the success of 'TDN Rising Star' Tarifa (Bernardini) in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. is presumably tempered somewhat by the fact that they sold her young dam Kite Beach (Awesome Again), carrying a full sister, just nine months after she had delivered this first foal. Mind you, a good deal more regret is doubtless being experienced by the people who bought Kite Beach at the Keeneland November Sale for $100,000, because just weeks later they “flipped” her for $115,000 at Fasig-Tipton February. That must feel like a pretty marginal gain now.

Ultimately Kite Beach was bought by Calumet, who sold Tarifa's sister at Fasig-Tipton last July for $105,000. While that sale nearly cleared their investment in one hit, congratulations must in turn go to purchaser Matthew Davis. Both he and Calumet, with their different stakes in her success, must be watching Tarifa's rise with due excitement.

Because for Kite Beach to produce a talent like this, at the first attempt, revives a rather dormant branch of an extremely famous family tree. She's a daughter of Tizdubai (Cee's Tizzy)–whose own mother Cee's Song (Seattle Song) must be counted one of the most remarkable producers of modern times.

Tizdubai was bought for Sheikh Mohammed as a weanling by John Ferguson for $950,000 at the 2001 Keeneland November Sale, a price that reflected her brother Tiznow's second consecutive success in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic just days previously. Cee's Song and Cee's Tizzy had already produced his brother Budroyale to finish second in that race, besides winning multiple graded stakes; and Tizdubai herself would duly proceed to win the GII Sorrento S.

Cee's Song was herself sold at the same November Sale as Tizdubai, for $2.6 million, inevitably in foal to Cee's Tizzy. The resulting filly, Tizamazing, never made the track but later produced Classic winner Oxbow. Unfortunately, the new owners of Cee's Song evidently decided that she was doing all this despite Cee's Tizzy, and not because of him, and instead favored her with serial $500,000 dates with Storm Cat.

These did not work out so well. Meanwhile another of the Song–Tizzy crew, Tizso, was sold for $625,000 despite an unproductive track career, and then produced Paynter to win the GI Haskell S. (Tizso also produced a couple of seven-figure yearlings so it was disappointing, shall we say, to see her sent into the ring at the age of 25 and sold for $62,000).

Tarifa | Hodges Photography

Both Paynter and Oxbow were by Awesome Again, and it was resorting to that ageing patriarch for Tizdubai's 2016 cover that produced Kite Beach. By then Tizdubai had come to seem a disappointing producer, despite serial elite covers.

Kite Beach did nothing to improve matters, being unraced, while her siblings that did make it to the racetrack showed little. One Shamardal filly did win on debut in England, but ended up struggling in a low grade and was sold for 45,000gns. Her son by Pioneerof the Nile is Cabo Spirit, latterly a dual graded stakes winner on turf in California, but Tizdubai's overall record as a producer makes it easy to understand why Kite Beach should have been culled.

But Awesome Again has served the Deputy Minister brand very well, as a broodmare sire; and of course Tarifa is by an outstanding such influence in Bernardini. So you'd have to be optimistic for Tarifa's prospects in her next career, as Mr. Davis can be about her sister.

Remarkable to see, meanwhile, that Calumet's first choice for Kite Beach was Paynter's son Knicks Go. The resulting colt, now a yearling, is inbred to an exceptional degree: his dam is by Awesome Again out of Tizdubai, and his grandsire is by Awesome Again out of Tizdubai's full sister Tizso. Plenty of egg in that pudding!

Patience Pays On Both Sides For Stronghold

As just noted, Awesome Again has contributed to a cluster of successful broodmare sires under Deputy Minister (himself sire of Sierra Leone's second dam). And among others to do so is his own son Ghostzapper, most conspicuously as damsire of Justify.

We have also credited Ghostzapper as one of those few sires to get a commercial yearling into the winner's circle at the last Breeders' Cup. So his prowess as a distaff influence must now augur well for the lady in question, Goodnight Olive, in her maiden cover by Not This Time (who sired Up to the Mark from a Ghostzapper mare).

Ghostzapper has now turned 24 but continues to rebuke the (largely self-fulfilling) mistrust among some breeders regarding older sires. Over the years he has also paid for a lack of precocity in his stock but nonetheless accounted for perhaps the most brilliant juvenile of last summer in Rhyme Schemes, unfortunately sidelined since.

Last weekend another member of the same crop, Stronghold, won the GIII Sunland Derby, the 100th worldwide stakes winner for Ghostzapper. Either way, how well he has steadied the ship after enduring some wild tides early in his stud career. Launched at $200,000 after one of the definitive speed-carrying displays of the modern breed, Ghostzapper was slashed from $125,000 to $30,000 (and soon $20,000) in one go after his first juveniles blew out. It was a long road back, but he fully merits a fee that has settled at $75,000, with career ratios that make him a very similar sire to Uncle Mo.

Stronghold himself is another of those homebreds to advertise the merit of playing the long game. Eric and Sharon Waller bought his fourth dam after she was a $12,000 RNA at Barretts in January 1998, and from her bred Swiss Diva (Swiss Yodeler) to win her first three starts including the California Breeders' Champion S. by eight lengths. Swiss Diva's first foal (a filly by Henny Hughes) was unable to race because of injury, but she would redress that misfortune as dam of Spectator (Jimmy Creed), winner of the GII Sorrento S. and twice Grade I-placed.

Spectator has now given the Wallers a run at the Derby with Stronghold, who managed to elude Bob Baffert in New Mexico and so elevated himself to fourth in the points board. He had previously counted the Risen Star runner-up and fourth among his pursuers when breaking his maiden over the Churchill surface.

Little Legacy Is On The Money

Marvin “Junior” Little was a man I would have loved to interview. He evidently knew plenty about the “real” world–never finished school, served in the Navy and was set for a factory job until a steel strike intervened–but proved a special talent when finding his way into our magical little one. Eventually he worked his way up to become manager of Newstead Farm, Virginia, until presiding over its $47-million dispersal in 1985. This was crowned by the homebred star Miss Oceana, in foal to Northern Dancer, at what was then a record price of $7 million.

Moving back to his native Kentucky, Little showed no less flair in managing his own, rather more modest program, which notably produced champion Hansel. And while he was sadly lost in 2017, his legacy of horsemanship endures through his children Marilyn, Jeff and Teresa. For they are listed as co-breeders with William Lynn of Money Supply (Practical Joke), who continued his transformation for Joe Sharp in the GIII Mineshaft S.

This horse achieved a good yield as a yearling, selling to Klaravich Stable for $400,000, but last summer he had reached a point where Chad Brown dropped him into a $32,000 claimer at Saratoga. For his new barn, Money Supply is now on a streak of five, reaching a new peak in a race that has lately drawn attention to others thriving with maturity in Olympiad and Maxfield.

As his original cost indicates, Money Supply was bred for this kind of caliber–even though co-breeder Lynn signed a docket of just $30,000 for his dam Evita's Sister (Candy Ride {Arg}) (in foal to the young Into Mischief) at the Keeneland November Sale of 2013. She owed her name to full-sister Evita Argentina, who had won the GI La Brea S., while their dam was out of an unraced half-sister to Trippi.

A few seams of gold there, then, for Practical Joke to be mining. Albeit aided by conspicuous volume, the Ashford sire is clinging to the slipstream of Gun Runner more tenaciously than the rest of their intake, earning a further hike to $65,000 this year. Money Supply is already his fourth stakes winner of the year, and watch out for another of them, the flying Skelly, in the desert this weekend.

A $5,000 Sire Showing Elite Potential

Having long recommended the horse, I make no apology for highlighting the fact that something really does seem to be afoot with Preservationist. Last weekend the Fair Grounds maiden winner Antiquarian, incidentally a $250,000 yearling off a $10,000 cover, became his ninth scorer since the turn of the year. Among second-crop sires, only Audible (12) has more–and they have respectively had 52 and 28 starters.

Preservationist had the commercial odds stacked against him, as a son of Arch who had won his Grade I at the age of six, but he has a sensational shape to his pedigree, posing fourth dam Too Chic opposite his sire's third dam Courtly Dee. Even so, only a farm as enlightened as Airdrie would have given him an opportunity, and his books have been on a predictable slide since he mustered 102 mares for his debut season.

So he had to make his one chance count, and he appears to be doing just that. An interesting template is In a Jam, who took as many as eight starts to break his maiden but posted a big number when doing so and again when following up in allowance company. It looks like people with the patience to let a horse gain a little maturity and experience are going to be very well rewarded, and they can now get to Preservationist for just $5,000.

He even has a filly on the Kentucky Oaks trail, with Martha Washington S. winner Band of Gold heading to the GIII Honeybee S. on Saturday. Her late breeder, Airdrie's founder Brereton C. Jones, was synonymous with that Classic. But he was also celebrated for producing top-class stallions somewhat out of left field–and perhaps we're already seeing that legacy being extremely well-“preserved.”

Band of Gold | Coady

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Minnesota Ready Tops Lothenbach Dispersal on Fasig-Tipton Digital

The Lothenbach dispersal of Horses of Racing Age on Fasig-Tipton Digital, run Jan. 29 to Feb. 2, closed with 66 horses selling for $4,840,000 with MSP Minnesota Ready (More Than Ready) leading all lots at a final price of $380,000, changing hands to Richard Colton Jr..

The first in the digital ring, Minnesota Ready was most recently seen Jan. 20 in the Duncan F. Kenner S. at the Fair Grounds, where he again ran third in a blanket finish with SW Sosua Summer (Summer Front) and MSW & MGSP Just Might (Justin Phillip) and wrapping his 2023 season before that Dec. 23 in the Richard R. Scherer Memorial S. behind those familiar foes.

The four others who went beyond the $300,000 mark include Dazzlin Dictator (American Pharoah), a two-time winner at Turfway Park, who went to Rodolphe Brisset, agent for Ann Harrison; Tickle Me Unclemo (Uncle Mo), a $350,000 KEESEP yearling, went to Robert Salome for $320,000; and Practically Dark (Practical Joke), recently second in a maiden special at the Fair Grounds, sold to C2 Racing Stable for $310,000.

Most notable of that group is GSW & GISP Happy American (Runhappy), who went as a racing prospect and sold to trainer Neil Pessin for $340,000. A frequent face in the graded ranks across the country, he won the GIII Louisiana S. in 2023 and ran third that summer in the GIII Blame and GI Stephen Foster S.. After uninspiring finishes in the a pair of graded efforts in Kentucky, he returned to the Big Easy and hit the board in the Tenacious S. to cap his season. He'd made his 2024 bow in the GIII Louisiana S. Jan. 20, finishing third in his title defense attempt.

In addition to the $4.84-million aggregate, the average was $73,333 while the median was $41,000 with 16 horses selling for $100,000 or more with Taylor Made Sales consigning. A total of 741 potential buyers from 46 states and seven countries registered to bid, placing a total of 3,047, and averaging 46 bids per offering.

“All I can say is, 'Wow,'” said Leif Aaron, Fasig-Tipton's Director of Digital Sales. “We have to thank the estate of Mr. Lothenbach for trusting us with this dispersal of racing stock. This is exactly what the digital platform was built for: horses and buyers from all over the country. These are phenomenal results.”

The dispersal of Lothenbach's breeding stock and yearlings will come during the Kentucky Winter Mix sale Feb. 5 to Feb. 6 with the catalogue available online.

Full results for the Lothenbach dispersal are available here.

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Mating Plans, Presented by Spendthrift: Machmer Hall

The TDN's popular annual series 'Mating Plans, presented by Spendthrift,' continues today in a conversation with Machmer Hall's Carrie Brogden.

Becca's Rocket, 6, (Orb-Idoitmyway, by Unbridled's Song). To be bred to Elite Power.
Becca's Rocket is currently in foal to Jackie's Warrior. We bred this Orb filly and after the untimely death of her Unbridled's Song dam in a paddock accident, I vowed to buy this beautiful stakes mare back after her racing career. When she was born, I had such high hopes for her because she was just a super model from day one. Even though Orb tanked as a stallion, I was thrilled that she ran to her looks to become a four-time stakes placed mare of over $250,000. I drove the people who owned her so crazy for over a year to buy her upon her retirement. I saw Jackie's Warrior and thought he was beyond stunning so she went to him the first year, figuring the horse version of Angelina Jolie to Brad Pitt certainly has the chance to make a beautiful baby! So, who to breed her to this year? When I was at the Breeders' Cup this year after losing my butt all day since I refused to bet the chalk, and about six drinks in, Elite Power's race was up. I was watching the post parade and all of a sudden Elite Power gallops away from the pony horse like a machine, giving me goose bumps (which I just got again thinking about it!) I turned to my husband and said, `whatever cash or betting funds we have I am putting on Elite Power.' I literally was putting in a dozen single dollar bills into the auto teller at the Little Red Feather suite with two minutes to post. Ha! He wins and happy, happy! How could one of my favorite homebred yearlings not go to one of my favorite racehorses? Becca's Rocket is booked to Elite Power.

Life Well Lived, 17, Tiznow-Well Dressed, b Notebook. To be bred to Constitution.
She is in foal to Constitution and my thoughts are, `if it ain't broke, don't fix it.' We were so lucky to buy this fabulous older multiple stakes producer the morning before her son, Parchment Party (Constitution), became a TDN Rising Star. I'm a huge, huge fan of Stone Farm who had her and raised all her runners, so I knew he had a great chance of being raised big and sound. Valerie de Meric, whose family broke and trained him, had texted me the morning she sold about his incredible talent. My mom and I were in the back ring with a tentative budget of $250,000 to purchase her. As her price climbed, I said to my mom that I did not think our original budget was going to cut it at all. We bid $340,0000 and the bid was returned slowly at $350,000 from whom I found out was her breeder, WinStar Farm. I looked at my mom as Stan the bid spotter is asking me with his gestures from his back ring post, `What do you want to do?' Mom looked at me and I asked her, `What do you want to do?' She said, `I am 76 and I can't take it with me, and I want to buy this mare.' The reference to her being 76 was not lost on me as my mind instantaneously was flooded with the memories of my beloved grandmother (my second mom) and her mother, Betty Machmer, who died in perfect health at 76 asleep on the sofa. Her loss 30 years ago still hurts. Her love, her personality, her life of supreme kindness inspired the name and spirit of what is Machmer Hall.
So we bid again. That afternoon at Keeneland, when his allowance race went off at Churchill Downs, I am sure they heard me cheering him in Louisville. The grand old gal is happily living at Machmer Hall now, a stone's throw from her former home of Stone Farm and, to top it off, I got the most wonderful and amazing congratulatory text from my favorite chef on Beat Bobby Flay after her purchase. Lynn Hancock asked me what I was going to do if he won the Derby and I told her I was going to get drunk. What a life we lead. Hope is the most valuable commodity. She is booked back to the next super stallion in Kentucky, Constitution.

Bunskie, 4, (Speightstown-Layreebelle, by Tale of the Cat). To be bred to Into Mischief.
Many years ago, we bought a top-class older mare when she was 19 years old. She was carrying a Tale of the Cat filly at the time. That mare was Voodoo Lily, who became the granddam of Justify. The resultant Tale of the Cat filly unfortunately injured her shoulder in a field accident so we kept her as a broodmare and named her Layreebelle (after my kids Layne, Reece, and Isabelle). Layreebelle has gone onto be a triple-graded-stakes producer with her most recent filly, Three Witches (Into Mischief) running third in the Breeders' Cup Sprint and selling for $1.7 million at Keeneland November.
We retained the now four-year-old Speightstown daughter out of Layreebelle named Bunskie, my youngest brother's childhood nickname. She foaled a fancy Bolt d'Oro filly just last night! In deciding where to go next, we looked to our favorite super sire, Into Mischief. His live-foal stud fee is out of our comfort zone, so we did a package of no-guarantee seasons in him with Spendthrift and she is booked on one of those seasons. We cannot wait to have a handful of Into Mischiefs back on the farm next year!

Stonetonic, 6, (Candy Ride {Arg}-Stonetastic, by Mizzen Mast.) To be bred to Flightline.
We were lucky enough to breed Grade II winner Stonetastic out of our super mare, Special Me. We were anxious to have a filly from that family, so when her first daughter Stonetonic came to auction in foal to Yaupon, we paid an outrageous $400,000 for her. Well, we looked pretty damn crazy until I was in Keeneland November seeing all of these fancy Yaupon babies with incredible physiques selling for big bucks! She has a lovely filly foal and when it came to make a choice of who to breed her to last year it was not lost on me that Flightline's purchaser, David Ingordo, bought Stonetonic's half-sister by Gun Runner for $925,000. David also bought Special Me's Grade I winner, Gift Box, off of us as a weanling so we're thinking it might be a lucky mating to send her to the stellar racehorse Flightline for her second baby, which she is expecting. Figuring that it was a no-brainer to send her first year mating, why not repeat it for $50,000 less for second year? Stonetonic is booked back to Flightline for 2024.

Hailey's Melody, 6, (Can the Man-Miki's Melody, by Aptitude). To be bred to Two Phil's.
Since we have a ridiculous number of mares due to yours truly having a major horse addiction, we have really tried to limit our new acquisitions to stakes mares. I first saw this mare on a Fasig-Tipton digital sale and even though Can the Man fizzled out at stud, she was a gorgeous, stakes-placed mare who failed to meet her reserve at $48,000 as a breeding or racing prospect. I messaged her owner that when she was done racing we would be interested in buying her as a broodmare only. Fast forward five months, and I got a text that her owner would sell her for a price so reasonable I think I choked on the Diet Coke I was drinking. She shipped in and this stunning 16.3 Adonis gets off the van. So, who to breed her to first year for good value but a great physical and price? Two Phil's: what a great price at $12,500! His speed figures were off the charts and he is by such a great, underrated stallion in Hard Spun. She has the big stretchy frame to lengthen out his Quarter Horse type physique and they are both correct with plenty of bone.

Rumandice, 8, (Congrats-Chasethegold, by Touch Gold). To be bred to Practical Joke.
I was walking in the back ring in Keeneland January, 2020 and happened to glance over and see this statuesque Congrats filly literally in the chute to go into the ring to be sold. We had actually had great luck in past with her family both in the sale ring and on the racetrack (which is the holy grail for any Thoroughbred commercial breeder). I decided to watch her sell and see where she went. She waltzes into the ring and I hear music to my bargain-shopping ears: `this mare is a cribber.' `OH!' my brain says. `There might be a chance here!' I bought her for $65,000 as a broodmare prospect and happy! Her second foal turns out to be a magnificent son of Practical Joke we sold to Winstar farm for $500,000 at this year's Saratoga sale. We bred her back to Authentic in 2023. Elliott Walden was kind enough to send me a video last month of said Practical Joke colt training, now named Social Hour, and so far so good! Seemed like a no brainer to us to repeat that mating and hope for maybe a happy hour next time! Her 2024 mating is back to the proven and great value sire in Practical Joke.

Line of Vision, 9, Court Vision-Gold Lined, by Numerous). To be bred to Maximus Mischief.
Line of Vision is a small mare but was a multiple stakes-winning two-year-old with 20 starts under her belt and earnings of almost $250,000. We used to have a rule in our band that all mares had to be at least 16hh but as the years passed we realized that rule needed to be changed with so many big stallions in Kentucky. We bought this mare on the Wanamaker's digital sale platform and bred her in 2023 to Mo Donegal, who is a big, strong horse. She was actually booked to Bolt D'Oro, but that day he was chock a block so we had to call an audible and change stallions last minute. Hopefully it works out like it did when the same thing happened with Vyjack's mating. In deciding where to send her for 2024, we turned to a former Machmer Hall pinhook, Maximus Mischief. What a magnificent foal he was and we have supported him since he went to stud including purchasing multiple breeding rights in him. He seems to throw leg and stretch no matter what mare he goes to. I think that he has had literally three maiden special weight winners in the past two days alone. We are hoping this sound young mare will be a great match with him physically and on the track! 2024: booking Maximus Mischief

Warm Sunshine, 10, (Unbridled's Song-Carolina Sunrise, by Awesome Again). To be bred to Cody's Wish.
We bought Warm Sunshine as a yearling on my never ending quest for Unbridled's Song mares. We already had claimed her full-sister, who became the dam of Grade III winner Fore Left and her other half-sister, Little Miss Macho, who was a Keeneland September session topper. We raced her and even though she is small, Bart Hone told me she “had a heart the size of Texas.” When we were looking who to breed her for a first foal, Constitution was in the middle of the dreaded bubble year as a stallion. I was challenged by Winstar to book five mares to him and get a bonus season. I actually found eight mares for him and we decided to send Warm Sunshine to him. Fast-forward from that 2018 mating; a case of sesamoiditis derailed our vision of a yearling sale. On to the two-year-old sale, where he promptly bucked his shins. So now, we race him. Steal Sunshine (named after the Len song) has now won two stakes and over $350,000 for us and is running in the GIII Hooper on Pegasus day this weekend! His mother is in foal to two-year-old champion Essential Quality on a 2023 breeding and booked to a horse that more happy tears have been shed over then I can remember in my lifetime, Cody's Wish, for 2024.

Vino Rosso is booked for Breakfastatbonnies | Sarah Andrew

Breakfastatbonnies, 6, (Laoban-Right Prevails, by Successful Appeal). To be bred to Vino Rosso.
Breakfastatbonnies is another one of my infamous walking in the back ring and `what on earth is that?' buys. (Better to ask forgiveness than permission from the hubby and mom.) This stakes-placed Laoban mare is the sh$t. I mean big and beautiful in every way of the word. A little flat in her knees if you want to be critical but I think that was found in a lot of the Laoban progeny. Full-sister to a stakes-winner of over half a million, I bought her as a broodmare prospect for $90,000. For a first year foal, we bred her to Cyber Knife. I try to call the people that know those horses best when they were yearlings or two year olds and Susan Montayne had broken and trained him for Al Gold. After speaking to her, I felt this would be a great physical match, but, truth be told , this mare is so good-looking she could probably get bred to a Welsh Pony and have a Pony Finals champion. When looking to breed her for 2024, my eyebrows have been raised at the incredible accomplishments so far of Vino Rosso. We booked three mares to him for the 2024 season and Breakfastatbonnies is one of those mares going to him.

Fancy Kitten, 10, (Kitten's Joy-Endless Fancy, by Ghostzapper). To be bred to Justify.
Fancy Kitten was originally claimed by James Keogh to resell as a broodmare prospect. He called me for a reference on someone who could claim this stakes-placed daughter of Kitten's Joy for him. I told him I knew the perfect person-a 4H conformation judge in a former lifetime and now a hard-working trainer. James calls her and the claim is dropped on `the correct and good-sized filly.' `Grand, grand,' you can imagine James saying in his best Irish brogue. Wait a minute, the phone rings again and the trainer says, `I was so busy making sure she was correct that I might have missed that she is a wee weak in the topline.' James is like, `how weak are we talking?' Too late, claim dropped. I am dying of laughter typing this because to hear James tell the story is side-splitting. James calls me after the mare gets to his farm and he is like, `so much for your former 4H judge!' Fancy Kitten goes to the Fasig-Tipton February sale and if you ever had the Breyer horse as a kid like I did , Fancy Kitten was the chestnut version of the old grey mare Glossy.
She is at the sale and as everyone knows it is impossible to sell a swayback (even though I have never seen a swayback throw a swayback) and she fails to meet her modest reserve. My mother, of course, has heard the entire story of the claim and James is desperately wanting to get her off the books as one of the rare times he does not make a fabulous claim, so we buy her for $10,000. Her first foal is the graded-stakes winning Jasper Krone (Frosted) who ran in this year's Breeders' Cup and her second foal, Ngannou (Mendelssohn) was a graded-stakes-placed two year old of last year. She has never thrown a swayback and throws a lovely baby that can run! She is currently in foal to the beautiful Jackie's Warrior and is booked back to the rising-star stallion Justify. You just cannot make this stuff up and that is why you never know where they are going to come from!

The post Mating Plans, Presented by Spendthrift: Machmer Hall appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Value Sires For 2024 Part 7: The Big Guns

Today we conclude our survey of Kentucky stallion options with a look at the apex of the pyramid, comprising a couple of dozen standing between $60,000 and $250,000–besides whatever it might take to secure your mare an audience with Justify.

It feels presumptuous enough to offer counsel even on cheaper sires, when each mating should boil down to you finding an optimal fit for an individual mare that you know inside out. Still greater hesitation, then, must precede any attempt to discover “value” among this lot.

No stallion has any business standing at this kind of money unless demonstrably of elite caliber. So while we'll be nervously proposing a Podium, as usual, we won't be dwelling unduly on the rest. You can take it as read that most of these horses must be punching their weight, both on the track and at the sales.

Instead, I'd just like to make one or two more general observations, in concluding this series, on the current trading environment.

Here's a series of what feel like pretty uncontentious statements.

1) Fees, overall, feel rather too high now that a long bull   run has tapered off and the middle market is being stretched by polarization.

2) At the same time, books assembled by unproven sires are reaching a size that must contain seeds of peril for the future of the breed. We know that most won't make the grade, meaning that the gene pool is increasingly being flooded with… well, choose your own pejorative.

3) But stallion farms have little room for maneuver, on either front. Knowing how the commercial market will behave nowadays, their accountants have only two options to retrieve the massive investment required to recruit an attractive stallion. The first is to start fees as high as they can, on the basis that it's now closer to “one and out” than “three and out”. The other is to keep fees more accessible, and instead go all out for volume. That necessarily exposes breeders to bringing an unexceptional specimen to saturated catalogues, but they all book their mares with their eyes open and many are evidently prepared to gamble on a home run. Pricing a horse fairly without resorting to appalling volume is an extremely difficult balancing act, and in this series I have tried to identify farms that look after their clients best in those terms.

Gun Runner | Sarah Andrew

4) Commercial breeders operate in a very difficult environment and need to put bread on the table. If you've had a weanling break a leg playing in a paddock, or lost a mare foaling, then you're going not going to be factoring too many noble thoughts about the long-term health of the breed into your choice of stallion. Same applies to all the pinhookers. The real blame, therefore, rests with those directing ringside spending.

5) These, in turn, have only one cogent explanation for their behavior. And no, it's not because rolling the dice on new stallions is their only window for hitting an elite stallion because all the proven ones are too expensive. Okay, horses like Gun Runner and Curlin have turned out to be at their most accessible when starting out, even though priced at or near the top of their intake. But the reality is that the vast majority of rookies will never match the ratios consistently achieved by some of the highly affordable, prove-a-mare stalwarts noted in this series. So the remaining logic is a self-fulfilling one: buyers like new sires because these will typically turn out to have received their biggest and best books, precisely because that's where all the attention is expected to be.

6) But hang on a minute. What happens when these books become so big that the mare quality becomes swamped by quantity? If you truly believe that you have spotted a stallion with unusual potential, why not stick with him as his second, third and fourth books dwindle? He may no longer be getting top mares, but good luck picking out the gold from the glister when the rookies are routinely corralling way over 200. You'd still be getting that priceless “sire power,” but at a diminishing cost. Where were all these guys when Into Mischief, Tapit and War Front had no friends in their third and fourth years? That's a real service for your clients, hanging in there for the value when everyone else runs away screaming. Low tide is exactly when you should be getting aboard. As a young stallion gets closer to putting horses into the gate, surely you're just getting closer to being proved right?

7) That leaves us with little alternative but to assume that professional counsellors spend their clients' money on new sires first and foremost because they don't really have to put their neck on the line. They're participating in a communal game of fantasy breeding, and when they do hit a dud–and we all know what a dud looks like, even if hundreds of foals means that he can still be promoted for “yet another stakes winner”–they can shrug their shoulders and say, “Don't blame me, everybody loved that horse!” And conversely they can gloat when they happen to land on a seam of gold. Well, even I can do that occasionally, and in the earlier stages of this series I've been perfectly happy to suggest a roll of the dice on one or two young horses that seem to be underpriced for their potential. But for every Not This Time I might find, over the years there's no doubt that I'm going to like as many duds as the next guy.

Life Is Good | Sarah Andrew

So, in conclusion: the bottom line is that stallion fees are only too high if you lack the courage of your convictions. Certainly, there can't have been many better epochs for the breed-to-race programs. But as I never tire of saying, there should be nothing more commercial than putting a winner under your mare.

Whether you want to bring down fees, or book sizes, the solution is the same. You just need to broaden the type of stallions that you support.

That way, everyone's a winner. Using horses that have at least demonstrated some competence to replicate the prowess that earned them a place at stud would a) allow relief on fees, b) even out book sizes, c) improve your chances of producing a racehorse, and d) duly improve the resilience of the racing population, with all the incidental benefits to a sport under growing social pressure.

The only comfort about our present situation is a cold one, in that things are even worse in Europe. The saving grace of the American industry is that it's still a commercial aspiration– whatever 293 mares to Golden Pal might tell you–to have a horse hold out through two turns of dirt on the first Saturday in May. And that, of course, is a competence that unites the majority of the elite sires with whom we close our series today.

This price range admits only one absolute beginner, Cody's Wish, whose intake received a separate assessment at the start of the series. And overall, logically enough, there are far fewer untested sires standing at this kind of fee than lower down the pyramid: only FLIGHTLINE ($150,000), LIFE IS GOOD ($85,000) and ESSENTIAL QUALITY ($65,000) are maintaining a place at this level pending examination on the racetrack. Nobody needs reminding of the excellence of their first careers, and the first two only have their first weanlings due. But it's perhaps instructive of the type of program keenest to tap into Essential Quality's wholesome combination of class and constitution (champion at two and three) with family (now further decorated by Forte, who shares a third dam) that only five weanlings were traded out from his debut crop (eight offered; median $280,000).

At the other end of the scale, we have a few sires whose right to stand at dizzy fees is too familiar to required reiteration. We have just celebrated a fifth consecutive title for INTO MISCHIEF ($250,000), who has duly opened new horizons with the mid-career upgrade in his mares. Competing with the Into Mischief production line may well leave CURLIN ($250,000) as one of the best sires never to have his status formally gilded by a championship. And TAPIT ($185,000) is still the main man, when it comes to lifetime ratios. He had a quietish year by his metronomic standards, and his books will be being prudently managed these days, but I still hope to see him come up with that Derby winner to round off a resume that features stakes winners at one-in-10 named foals, 101 of them at graded level at 6.2 percent.

Justify | Sarah Andrew

Nor is there any need to dwell on the young guns JUSTIFY (private), whose success either side of the water–six elite scorers in 2023, notably an outstanding champion juvenile in Europe–suggests that he may be eligible for a historic role in our urgent quest for sires to reconcile the disastrous segregation of European and American gene pools; and GUN RUNNER ($250,000), whose early percentages remain simply freakish. In 2023 his black-type, graded-stakes and Grade I performers respectively came in at 17.2, 11.8 and 5.4 percent of starters!

A lot of the best sires are now in the evening of their careers, and these two appear to have a huge opportunity to dominate in the years ahead, along with NOT THIS TIME ($150,000) who will now only just be consolidating his breakout.

It would perhaps be taking loyalty too far to give Not This Time his umpteenth Value Podium at 10 times the fee that first excited us, but rest assured there's an awful lot still to come from a stallion who complements the priceless transatlantic legacy of Giant's Causeway with indigenous Tartan Farms dirt speed. Remember that his juveniles this year will be his first sired even at $40,000, up from just $12,500. They reached a median of $210,000 (average $287,025) as yearlings, nice work at the conception fee (and up from $150,000/$209,688). Even after adding Up to the Mark as a fifth Grade I winner in three crops, Not This Time may do well to keep up his incredible start as the crop conceived at his lowest ebb turns three. But the upgrade in quality will soon kick in, and then all bets will be off.

In contrast UNCLE MO ($150,000) first stood at this fee back in 2017 and QUALITY ROAD ($200,000) reached the same mark by 2019. By this stage, then, they have pretty well established who and what they are, and duly finished fourth and fifth respectively in the general list. Quality Road has become a particularly consistent sales performer, advancing his median in 2023 to $375,000 from $350,000, behind only Into Mischief and Curlin. It was Uncle Mo (median $212,500) who fired his racetrack arrows closer to the bull's-eye in 2023, 14 stakes winners (at 4.4 percent of starters) including three at Grade I level, whereas Quality Road's 18 (7.2 percent) featured just National Treasure at that altitude.

Good Magic | Sarah Andrew

If that pair are plainly in their prime, GOOD MAGIC ($125,000) has broken into the six-figure club after producing the Derby winner at the first attempt. That's quite a hike from $50,000 but he's no one-trick pony, counting Eclipse finalist Muth among half a dozen black-type winners already from 45 juvenile starters in 2023. Obviously, he's going to have to keep advancing his ringside performance to warrant this fee, having achieved a median of $155,000 (average $217,390) with his latest crop. But that was up from $100,000 ($130,250) in 2022, and must itself be acknowledged a fine yield from a $30,000 conception fee.

From the same glitzy intake, BOLT D'ORO rises to $60,000 from $35,000 after a second productive campaign. Though his yearling dividends slipped, at a median $82,500/average $113,218, they similarly represented a punchy yield on a $15,000 conception fee. Bolt d'Oro has started a higher proportion of his foals than Justify and Good Magic, so we'll have to see whether that's a function of superior precocity or overall soundness. As noted earlier in the series, however, what really excites about this class is its depth: horses like Army Mule and Girvin are essentially matching their more expensive peers from much lower fees and volume. Those horses deserve a chance to show what do with their own upgrades before anyone reaches any definitive conclusions about the pecking order.

At the other end of the spectrum are some much older sires with a sustained record of achievement behind them. WAR FRONT has had his books managed with restraint for so long that he will never have adequate volume to shake up the general list, unless he has a real star, but even without one last year he maintained his customary strike-rates, for instance with 10 graded stakes winners from just 166 starters. His career ratios are beyond even Tapit, which makes $100,000 a terrific play for those who a) can afford it and b) aren't prey to a childish aversion to turf.

The MUNNINGS trajectory got so giddy last year that he was hoisted to six figures but that proved to be a moment of overexcitement and, after his book shrank to 146 from 204, he has dropped to $75,000 for 2024. His reputation has raced ahead of his fee for most of his career and he's actually on the point of upgrading his stock on the track, his incoming juveniles being the first conceived even at $40,000 and duly nudging his yearling median forward ($160,000 from $150,000). He has that big 2022 book of $85,000 covers in the pipeline, and the access he has enjoyed to better mares should also help him improve a somewhat pedestrian ratio for his five elite scorers to date. Munnings is nowadays virtually a lock for the top 10 in the general list and that makes him look pretty fairly priced.

Practical Joke | Coolmore

His studmate PRACTICAL JOKE is becoming one of the busiest avenues to his sire, albeit his affordability is diminishing (fee up to $65,000 from $25,000). Commercial breeders can't get enough of him, his latest yearlings achieving a terrific yield (median $110,000/average $153,807) on the cover fee. The obvious caveat is that his volume is now such (482 mares over the last two years!) that you had better not find yourself with an ordinary specimen…

CANDY RIDE (Arg) was one of those middle-rank sires most exposed to polarization at the sales (median down to $100,000, which was half his average, from $140,000 the previous year) but remains settled at $75,000 after Candied and Geaux Rocket Ride kept his name in lights. His son TWIRLING CANDY (average $160,064 also well ahead of his $90,000 median; clearly their good ones are very good) similarly stands at $60,000 for a third year after producing his eighth Grade I winner, albeit his respectable lifetime ratios don't quite match those of STREET SENSE at the same fee.

Street Sense arguably offers fine value at this level, even if his bargain buddy Hard Spun would make as much sense at a lower fee: some of their indices are uncannily in step. But at the sales Street Sense is maintaining a $150,000 average, well over double that of Hard Spun. That confirms the latter to be an end user's delight, but Street Sense covers all bases.

Their venerable neighbor MEDAGLIA D'ORO reached a peak of $250,000 in 2018 but was slashed from $150,000 to $100,000 in 2022 and now suffers a fresh indignity at $75,000. The fact is that his Hong Kong 'ATM' Golden Sixty belongs to the same crop as his last big star here, Bolt d'Oro, leaving the tide of fashion to ebb somewhat: his latest yearlings had to settle for a $180,000 median/$248,371 average (down from $242,500/$339,918). Nonetheless this is the same flesh and blood whose 22 Grade I winners in the Northern Hemisphere (26 overall) long gave him top billing at Saratoga and Book I. Thoroughbreds will always confound assumptions and it would be gratifying to see such a glamorous specimen muster one or two last hurrahs in the evening of his career.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze Medal: GHOSTZAPPER
Awesome Again–Baby Zip (Relaunch)
$75,000, Hill 'n' Dale

I guess it all depends what you're trying to achieve. But if you're one of those strange people simply trying to breed as good a racehorse as you can, then you certainly won't mind that this magnificent animal has now entered his 24th year.

Ghostzapper | Sarah Andrew

He was not very temperately handled early in his stud career, launched at $200,000 and slashed from $125,000 to $30,000 after his first juveniles blew out. Though a colt from his debut crop won the GI Blue Grass S., he was promptly cut again to $20,000. It was a long road back, but he's now just two short of bringing up 100 stakes winners at 7.8 percent of named foals.

Across the board, in fact, he's basically the same sire as Uncle Mo, who gets his black-type winners at 7.1 percent. Their stakes performers come at 13.1 and 13 percent respectively; Ghostzapper's graded stakes winners at 4.2 percent, against 3.5 percent for Uncle Mo; graded stakes performers weigh in at 7.2 and 7.7 percent; and 14 Grade I winners apiece come at 1.1 and 1.0 percent. But Uncle Mo stands at twice the fee, and has accumulated more named foals from six fewer crops!

Obviously Ghostzapper pays a commercial price for being less likely to produce precocious horses, but the likes of Mystic Guide and Goodnight Olive continue to reward those prepared to await the kind of maturity that enabled their sire to stretch his murderous speed, aged four, to one of the great modern performances. And anyone who saw the GIII Saratoga Special last summer will form their own views about Ghostzapper never getting precocious stock!

In the meantime, he has emerged, consistently with the sire-line, as an important broodmare sire, his daughters having now given us Up To The Mark as well as Justify himself. I don't know whether Ghostzapper was confined to 75 mares last year in deference to his age, or just because of commercial wariness. As your ideal Book II sire, he was vulnerable to market polarization this year. In the circumstances he did well to maintain a $170,590 average ($187,916 in 2022), albeit his median duly suffered ($115,000 down from $165,500).

But that's a sideshow at this time of his life. You know what he can do for your program, especially if you wouldn't mind retaining a filly. And you also know that there's a finite opportunity to tap so proximately into a combination as resonant as grandsire Deputy Minister and damsire Relaunch. It's a privilege worth paying for and, relative to plenty of untested young sires, it's one that doesn't cost so much.

Silver Medal: NYQUIST
Uncle Mo–Seeking Gabrielle (Forestry)
$85,000, Darley

Here's a horse back on the move, with his incoming juveniles sired at $75,000–up from $40,000, a response to the freshman title he won in 2020. He then had to be throttled back to $55,000 after hitting a flat spot the following year, mustering a solitary graded stakes winner, but that is now turning out to have been a blip.

Nyquist | Sarah Andrew

This year he came up with his third and fourth Grade I winners, and was denied a fifth in poignant circumstances, as sire of New York Thunder. Into their slipstream followed a bunch of juveniles that showed both the precocity to win at Royal Ascot (Crimson Advocate) and the flair to put themselves on the dirt Classic radar (Nysos, Knighstbridge). Nysos looks a pretty freakish talent and we know that his sire stretched his own juvenile speed when and where it counted, on the first Saturday in May.

Nyquist's $140,000 yearling median in 2023 needs to keep progressing, to justify his new fee, but hopefully that process is well underway (median was $110,000 in 2022, and average meanwhile markedly up at $192,749 from $148,275). He remained fully subscribed during his couple of years regrouping at $55,000, so there's unlikely to be any kind of bump in the road now.

The one he endured in his second year has certainly levelled off, so that even though he emerged in the same intake as Not This Time, he's faring pretty respectably even against that monster talent. Nyquist can't match his ratios for winners in each category, but in black-type, graded stakes and Grade I performers there's not much between them: 12.7, 6.7 and 1.8 percent of named foals for Not This Time and 12.1, 6.5 and 2.3 percent for Nyquist. True, Not This Time must have had lesser materials with which to make his name, but he's now at a fee altitude that requires oxygen masks, whereas Nyquist is still hauling his way up the rope behind him.

Gold Medal: CONSTITUTION
Tapit–Baffled (Distorted Humor)
$110,000, WinStar

This horse is at an interesting crossroads. His incoming juveniles were conceived at $85,000, the sophomores at $40,000, and his 4-year-olds at just $15,000. From 48 starters last year, even this latter group came close to a Grade I score through Webslinger, beaten a head in the Saratoga Derby and a neck in the Hollywood Derby.

Constitution | Sarah Andrew

The 2024 sophomores emerge from a bumper crop of 187 live foals, the first Constitution produced after his freshman breakout in 2019 (second to American Pharoah). They made a very promising start on the track, placing him second in the table for 2-year-old earnings. In fairness, he had a pretty enormous footprint, with 88 juvenile starters, but Catching Freedom set the tone for his peers in 2024 with his Smarty Jones S. success on New Year's Day. In fact, he's one of three Constitutions in the top nine of colleague T.D. Thornton's opening Derby Top 12.

And now, as noted, we can look forward to the $85,000 crop corralled by Tiz the Law's sophomore emergence. They averaged $281,125 as yearlings, up from $244,242, with the median steady at $200,000. The good old pipeline is loaded, then, and we know that those that stand out from a crowd will bring the big money.

His aging sire has arranged quite a race for the eventual succession, but for now this appears to be the heir to catch for the likes of Flightline and Essential Quality. Constitution has seen a lot of life for a horse of his age, including having shuttled to Chile for three years, but there's definitely a scenario where a fee held at $110,000 turns out to be a staging post on the way to still higher ones.

Breeder Selections

Paul Manganaro, Belladonna Racing

Paul Manganaro | Christina Bossinakis

Bronze Medal: Twirling Candy ($60,000)
Twirling Candy offers breeders a lot of bang for their buck. He has ranked in the top 15 on the national sires by progeny earnings list the last two seasons and has produced eight Grade I winners to-date.

Silver Medal: Quality Road ($200,000)
Quality Road has consistently produced the “Big Saturday Afternoon” horse. He can get you a quality two-year-old and one that can compete at the highest level around two turns. His 2.14 (AEI) average earning index is on or near par with the elite stallions currently standing in America. His offspring are also very popular in the sales ring.

Gold Medal: Constitution ($110,000)
To have access to Constitution at his stud fee is like stealing in my opinion. He's a stallion that had 17 yearlings sell for $400,000 or higher in 2023 topped by a $1.3-million Keeneland September yearling. The offspring from his best book of mares are just starting to hit the ground in the past few years and as Jan. 11 he has three colts ranked in the TDN's Top 12 2024 Derby list.

The post Value Sires For 2024 Part 7: The Big Guns appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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