Pennsylvania Derby | Horse Racing Free Tips

‘Spirit’-less PA Derby Weekend’s Main Event

The decision to withdraw GI Kentucky Derby first-past-the-post Medina Spirit (Protonico) from Saturday's $1-million GI Pennsylvania Derby is certainly a disappointing development, but eight of the nine remaining entrants already have at least one stakes win to their credit, six of those at the graded-stakes level, with a couple of new shooters that have earned their chance to contest a race of this magnitude.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) is a deserving favorite based on his body of work, one that could look dramatically more sparkling with a few different bounces of the ball. The wire-to-wire winner of the GII Louisiana Derby in March, the half-brother to champion Mitole (Eskendereya) made a run from slightly off the pace and may have hung late when third across the line in the Derby, beaten a length for all of it. Ridden for speed in the GI Belmont S., Hot Rod Charlie cut out an otherwise suicidal early pace and held well deep into the final eighth of a mile, only to be outfinished by Essential Quality (Tapit). His heart was on full display yet again in the GI TVG.com Haskell S. July 17, but he drifted in with a furlong to race, causing Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) to stumble, and was placed last. Connections passed on the GI TVG.com Pacific Classic at home and a trip back this way for the GI Runhappy Travers S. in favor of this spot, won by the Doug O'Neill (Leandro Mora)-trained Handsome Mike (Scat Daddy) in 2012.

“Selfishly, I want it for the whole team, but also for him as an individual,” said O'Neill. “It would be a pretty awesome result for Charlie to get a Grade I win, that's for sure.”

Midnight Bourbon will jump as the second favorite and is likely to be bet well down from his morning line. Able to control a moderate pace in wiring the GIII Lecomte S. over the winter, the strapping bay was runner-up in the Louisiana Derby and ran with credit to be sixth in the Derby after being farther back than connections had hoped. Second to Rombauer (Twirling Candy) in the GI Preakness S. after racing more prominently, he showed tremendous athleticism to pop right up from the incident at Monmouth and gave Essential Quality all he could handle in the Travers last time, going down to a neck defeat while earning a career-best 107 Beyer.

“Hopefully, Saturday is his turn,” said David Fiske, racing manager to Winchell Thoroughbreds. “It's been a peculiar year. Most years, the field for the Kentucky Derby evaporates the day after the Derby. This year we've had Essential Quality, Midnight Bourbon, Hot Rod Charlie, Medina Spirit–even though he scratched–he's still going. There are a lot of them out there and they're all quality colts.”

Fulsome (Into Mischief) pinch-hits here for Derby second and 'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun (Into Mischief) and capped a three-race winning streak with a convincing victory in the GIII Matt Winn S. at Churchill May 29. A money-burning third to the progressive Mr. Wireless (Dialed In) in the GIII Indiana Derby July 7, he bounced back in this track's GIII Smarty Jones S. Aug. 24, but will have to run significantly faster to factor here.

Speaker's Corner (Street Sense) bested next-out 'Rising Star' Caddo River (Hard Spun), future MGSW Greatest Honour (Tapit), GSW Bourbonic (Bernardini) and GISP Miles D (Curlin) to graduate at Belmont Oct. 11 and went missing for 10 months before returning to take a first-level Saratoga allowance by 5 1/4 lengths Aug. 14, for which he earned a 101 Beyer. Trainer Bill Mott is a two-time winner of the race, including To Honor and Serve (Bernardini) a decade ago.

Americanrevolution (Constitution) won the state-bred restricted New York Derby at Finger Lakes by 7 1/4 lengths July 19 and added a five-length success in the Aug. 27 Albany S. for Todd Pletcher, whose lone win in this race came courtesy of Harlan's Holiday in 2002.

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Bret Calhoun Joins Writers’ Room

On the heels of a breakout performance from his juvenile filly Hidden Connection (Connect) in Saturday's GIII Pocahontas S. at Churchill, trainer Bret Calhoun joined the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland Wednesday morning to talk about his new barn star, upcoming career milestones, the closure of his old home track Arlington Park this weekend and more.

Calling in via Zoom as the Green Group Guest of the Week, Calhoun was asked about how Hidden Connection's 9 1/4-length tour de force beneath the Twin Spires compared to his expectations for the filly.

“Trainers have got a million excuses, we're always nervous. We don't have quite what we want. Nothing rarely goes perfect,” Calhoun said. “But this filly showed a lot of talent early on. She breaks her maiden impressively, very easily. But we've got basically 30 days from a 5 1/2[-furlong] maiden race at Colonial to come to the Pocahontas at a mile and a 16th. So there wasn't a lot of time to prepare like I wanted. She always looked like she wanted to go two turns in the morning, but until you do it, it's a

lot to ask. With that being said, I did have a lot of confidence in her going in and I really felt like she would run really, really well that night. I thought she would get a good position on the first turn,and we really thought she wanted to go on. But like I said, until they prove it, you're not for sure.”

Calhoun has accomplished a lot since taking out his trainer's license in 1994, and currently has 3,308 wins to go along with over $92 million in earnings. He expressed gratitude and said he's far from done when asked to reflect on those numbers.

“It's been an unbelievable run. I'm hoping to reach 4,000 wins and $100 million in earnings. I love the sport. I love the horses. And it's provided a good living for me. I can't say enough about the business and what it's done for me. A lot of people have to go to job every day that they can't stand. I go to a job every day that I love.”

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by Spendthrift Farm, West Point Thoroughbreds and Legacy Bloodstock, the writers returned to the studio to discuss trainer Charlie Appleby's dominance in America, Tomas Mejia's 10-year suspension for using a buzzer, Bob Baffert's scratch of Medina Spirit (Protonico) from the GI Pennsylvania Derby and more. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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Hot Rod Charlie: ‘Blue-Collar’ Horse Goes From 94-1 Shot To Pennsylvania Derby Favorite

No one gave Roadrunner Racing, William Strauss, Boat Racing and Gainesway Stables' Hot Rod Charlie a second look when he ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November. The speedy son of Oxbow was given two chances to win that prize: none and none.

Hot Rod Charlie was dismissed at odds of 94-1 that day and ended up finishing second, three quarters of a length behind Essential Quality.

It was a sign of things to come.

“That was pretty incredible,” trainer Doug O'Neill said about the Juvenile. “It sounds pretty obvious, but that is the thing that sent us on our way. It really set the tone for what has happened this year.”

With the sudden defection of Medina Spirit from the Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby, Hot Rod Charlie is the new morning-line favorite at odds of 8-5.

Saturday will be his first race since the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell at Monmouth Park on July 17. In that race, Hot Rod Charlie was the first horse across the finish line but was disqualified and placed last after Midnight Bourbon clipped heels with him in the stretch.

Before that, Hot Rod Charlie and jockey Flavien Prat ran a courageous race in the Grade 1, $1 million Belmont, finishing second behind Essential Quality.

In five starts this year, Hot Rod Charlie has one win — the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby — to go along with a third in the Grade 1, $3 million Kentucky Derby.

“He has shown up in every big race we have had him in,” O'Neill said. “He has been very honest and, gosh, I just feel so lucky and blessed to be connected with him, He is just a real cool, blue-collar, solid horse.”

After the Haskell, Hot Rod Charlie went back to O'Neill's base in California and the trainer decided he would let the horse tell him when he was ready to go again.

“He needed a couple of weeks after the Haskell,” O'Neill said. “He had to get his bearings about him and get his energy back to where we wanted it to be. As I started breezing him, I just let him go easy, and the last couple of works we have asked him for a little bit of run. He has responded in normal Charlie fashion.”

Hot Rod Charlie arrived at Parx along with the popular Hall of Famer Lava Man, who serves as the colt's pony, last Saturday.

“He seems to be coming into the Pennsylvania Derby in good shape,” O'Neill said. “I am a big fan of Bensalem and I'm pumped to be going into their signature race with a live chance.”

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Equibase Analysis: Speaker’s Corner Poised To Upset Pennsylvania Derby

The Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby, which took a hiatus last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, is back and better than ever for 2021. Nine horses are likely to run, including Grade 1 Kentucky Derby third place finisher Hot Rod Charlie, who crossed the finish line first in the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes in July only to be disqualified for interference and placed last of seven.

Keepmeinmind and Bourbonic, respectively the seventh and 13th place Kentucky Derby finishers, are winless in six races combined since then and hope to improve back to top form, although it must be noted Keepmeinmind was only beaten a half-length for the win in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes in July by Essential Quality, who is bypassing this race after winning the Grade 1 Travers Stakes one month ago.

Fourth place Jim Dandy finisher Weyburn earned the biggest victory of his career this past March in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes but has only managed fourth place finishes in his two tries at this mile and one-eighth distance.

Midnight Bourbon improved off a sixth place effort in the Kentucky Derby to finish second in the Preakness, then did not finish the Haskell after losing his jockey when Hot Rod Charlie drifted into his path in the stretch. He enters the race off a strong runner-up effort, beaten a neck, to Essential Quality in the Travers.

Next comes a quartet of horses which have never run in the same races the other five have run. Fulsome just won the Grade 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx and earlier this year took the Oaklawn Stakes at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby so must be respected. Recent double stakes winner Americanrevolution is another horse deserving a close look as he won the Albany Stakes at this distance four weeks ago. I Am Redeemed has won three of four career start including the Storm Cat Stakes at Parx last month, while Speaker's Corner stretches out to two turns for the first time and runs in a stakes race off a very strong win at Saratoga last month.

Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit was entered but will not run in this race per an announcement Tuesday, Sept. 21.

Main contenders to win:

Trainer Bill Mott is in the Hall-of-Fame for many reasons, and one of those is his ability to know when a horse in his care is talented enough to compete at the top level. With that in mind, Speaker's Corner is my top choice to win this year's Pennsylvania Derby.

Speaker's Corner is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just three times. He debuted a little over one year ago and finished third then improved sensationally off the experience to win last October. Whatever kept him away from the races from last fall until last month is irrelevant now as Speaker's Corner returned on Aug. 14 to win impressively beating older horses at the distance of seven furlongs, which is a difficult task off a long layoff.

Jose Ortiz rode Speaker's Corner for the first time last month and returns again with a colt that is highly likely to take a big step up second off the layoff just as he did in his second career start. Considering Speaker's Corner earned a 107 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure with the effort last month, he could easily run faster than favorites Hot Rod Charlie (113 in July) and Midnight Bourbon (109 last month). In addition to the physical and mental improvement expected in his second start off a layoff, we can also expect Speaker's Corner to improve based on Bill Mott's record when stretching a horse out from sprint to a route off in its second start off a layoff in the past two years.

Specifically with 3-year-olds like Speaker's Corner, Mott did this with Candy Man Rocket when saddling him to victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes this winter, and with Art Collector just last month in the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga. Additionally, owner/breeder Godolphin, whose Essential Quality is one of the top 3-year-olds of 2021, is on a hot streak as they owned the winners of the Summer Stakes, the Natalma Stakes, the Pattison Canadian International and the Jockey Club Derby Invitational last weekend. As such, it may be very difficult to pass on Speaker's Corner as a win bet at high odds in this year's Pennsylvania Derby.

Americanrevolution is also likely to go to the gate at high odds, even though he has a perfect three-for-three record in 2021. Moving to the barn of Todd Pletcher for his first start of the year and second of his career and following eight months off, Americanrevolution won a sprint then when stretching out to two turns improved dramatically for a seven length win in the New York Derby. Better still, in the Albany Stakes last month at Saratoga and at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby, Americanrevolution won in a hand ride by five lengths to earn a 108 ™ figure which is logically going to be improved upon on his current pattern.

Jockey Luis Saez, who recently captured the Saratoga riding title against the strongest jockey colony in North America, has been aboard for all three of the colt's wins to date and will be in the saddle once again. A son of Constitution, whose Tiz the Law won four graded stakes as a three year old last year, Americanrevolution has tremendous potential to run well in this race and I would not hesitate to bet him to win in addition to Speaker's Corner if the odds are high.

Hot Rod Charlie is a street fighter of a horse, with a very strong competitive instinct backed up with great ability. First, second, or third in seven straight races, Hot Rod Charlie has never lost his physical edge since last October when earning his first win. Beaten one length when third in the Kentucky Derby and earning a career-best 109 figure in the process, Hot Rod Charlie battled head-and-head for most of the last half-mile in the often grueling Belmont Stakes five weeks later, beaten a bit over a length and 11 lengths clear of third place finisher Rombauer, who had just posted the upset win in the Preakness three weeks earlier. Then, in the Haskell Stakes in mid-July, Hot Rod Charlie did everything asked when beating Mandaloun by a nose, but was disqualified and placed last for drifting in with an eighth of a mile to go and in the steward's view causing Midnight Bourbon to trip and lose his jockey. That effort earned Hot Rod Charlie the best last race Equibase Figure in the field 113 which, if repeated, would make him very tough to beat. That is, if Speaker's Corner and Americanrevolution don't continue their patterns of improvement and run faster.

Midnight Bourbon has only won two of 11 career races, finishing second in four others. The best of those four came in his most recent race last month in the Travers. After leading from the start in an otherwise paceless race, Midnight Bourbon dug in and went head-and-head with Essential Quality for the entire last eighth of a mile, coming up a neck short and earning a 109 figure. Certainly if he can repeat that effort in the Pennsylvania Derby, Midnight Bourbon could be in the thick of the action at the finish.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Bourbonic (100), Fulsome (102), I Am Redeemed (111), Keepmeinmind (106) and Weyburn (109).

Win contenders:
Speaker's Corner
Americanrevolution
Hot Rod Charlie

Must use on exacta tickets and could possibly win:
Midnight Bourbon

Pennsylvania Derby – Grade 1
Race 12 at Parx Racing
Saturday September 25 – Post Time 5:49 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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