patrick cummings | Horse Racing Free Tips

Oklahoma Commission Accepts Jackpot Bet Rule Change

The Oklahoma Horse Racing Commission (OHRC), in its January meeting, accepted an amendment to its rules of racing which will now increase protection of horseplayers placing jackpot-style bets. The action came following months of advocacy from the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF).

TIF became involved on behalf of horseplayer Jeffrey Arthur whose case was outlined in detail in a publication on April 16, 2020.

Arthur held the only ticket with the winning combination for a jackpot pick six wager on a sequence at Remington Park but was denied the payout as it was deemed a dead heat created two tickets and was not a unique wager, disqualifying him from the $35,145 jackpot.

Arthur's bet included both horses in the dead heat in a single wager entered via his ADW account, but in conversations with TIF and Arthur's attorney, Maggi Moss, Remington officials asserted the unusual outcome created two separate tickets and that they were justified in paying only two consolations totaling $8.920.80. That amount was the entirety of the net consolation pool that evening, which proved Arthur held the only ticket with all six winners.

“We are incredibly pleased with the outcome that the Oklahoma Horse Racing Commission has accepted a change to its rules which will ensure all horseplayers are treated fairly and that no one will have to face the situation Mr. Arthur endured,” said Patrick Cummings, TIF's Executive Director.

“Horseplayers are the backbone of our industry. Wagering from horseplayers is directly responsible for a significant portion of prize money which is shared by thousands of owners, trainers and jockeys, and will be needed more than ever as many jurisdictions face budgetary pressures and growing threats to decouple casino revenue sharing from purse accounts.”

Pending final adoption which is expected through the Oklahoma legislature and Governor, the OHRC has now clearly defined “unique wager,” utilizing a definition which is commonplace across other American jurisdictions but which was not within the state's rules previously.

Upon full implementation, a customer whose ticket, entered at the minimum bet amount, is the only to select all winners with a “Pick N” jackpot bet, where “n” equals the number of races in the sequence, is entitled to the jackpot even if multiple winning combinations are created from the original ticket as the result of several scenarios. Those include: a late scratch being replaced by a post-time favorite, a dead-heat, or in cases where a race has been subject to a surface switch after the start of the sequence.

“TIF petitioned the Commission last summer and presented our proposal to their Rules Committee. What we thought was going to be fairly straightforward, as the definition of 'unique wager' is quite clear across many other jurisdictions, was anything but. Remington offered the OHRC Rules Committee a competing request which would have memorialized the situation which caused Mr. Arthur's original problem. The Committee saw the issue with great clarity and the impact to customers.”

“While TIF believes jackpot bets are wagers which should generally be avoided as they carry bloated daily effective takeout to the detriment of horseplayers, and greatly limit wagering churn to the detriment of horsemen, we are most pleased with the outcome and the protection this update provides horseplayers.”

The addition of “unique wager” to the rules was part of the OHRC's annual rules amendment process. Many other amendments were made as part of the review.

The post Oklahoma Commission Accepts Jackpot Bet Rule Change appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Thoroughbred Idea Foundation Raises Jackpot Bet Concerns To Ohio Commission

Speaking during the public comment period of Wednesday's Ohio State Racing Commission (OSRC) meeting, Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF) Executive Director Patrick Cummings raised concerns regarding changes to the provisions of the jackpot pick six wager at the state's Mahoning Valley Race Course.

“Seemingly without public notice, Mahoning Valley has flipped the terms of the jackpot pick six from where it was in March to where it is through its current meet,” Cummings said after the meeting, “and we wanted to ensure the Commission was made aware through the proper channels as it seems the Ohio Racing Rules require, and to investigate the measures the track took to make the public aware of the change.”

When racing closed for the season at the eastern Ohio track, the jackpot pick six wager had a 20 percent takeout with 30 percent of the daily pool withheld if there was no single ticket winner – yielding an effective daily hold of 44 percent. A total of 70 percent of the net pool was paid to the multiple winners on a given day should no single ticket winner exist.

A carryover of $2,620 was held from the end of the meet in March and offered, per Ohio rules, at the start of the next meet, which opened on Oct. 23. Written approval is required to change elements of the bet.

“The difference is that while the actual takeout remained the same, at 20 percent, the track has changed the daily withholding for the carryover to 70 percent, which is what they had been paying out back in March. Combining this takeout and withholding rate yields an effective daily hold of an astounding 76 percent, which we believe to be the highest such rate in North America for this bet type in Thoroughbred racing.”

“This is not a category where Ohio wants to be at the top of the pack,” Cummings told the Commission.

TIF has been critical of racing operators for allowing jackpot bets to proliferate across racing in the last decade.

“Jackpot bets are the opposite of what racing needs,” Cummings added after the meeting.

“These bets limit customer churn, which limits the opportunity for horsemen to earn purses from racing wagering. It defies all conventional logic to offer jackpot bets and limit the opportunity to grow wagering on racing, a metric in our business which has declined by nearly 50 percent when adjusted for inflation over the last 20 years,” added Cummings.

“Some tracks have paid greater attention to this in recent times, either eliminating jackpot bets or offering them on far more favorable terms.”

On a very positive note, several tracks have recently removed jackpot provisions from some wager types, while others carry more favorable terms on returning a large chunk of daily wagering which limits the daily hold.

Fair Grounds removed the jackpot provision from its pick five pools when its 2020-21 season launched in November, while Century Mile in Alberta abandoned the jackpot provision in its super high five midway through its 2020 meet. Today's card at Fair Grounds features a $27,704 carryover on its late pick five, paid to any number of winning tickets with all five winners.

Churchill Downs, whose “Single 6” bet pays 90 percent of the daily pool with just a 15 percent takeout, yielding an effective daily hold of just 23.5%, is among the most player – and horsemen – friendly jackpot wagers given the substantial daily payout provision.

Scott Borgemenke, Chairman of the OSRC, indicated his appreciation that the topic was raised and that, at least to his knowledge, the remarks from the TIF included new information to him. Chairman Borgemenke requested a copy of the remarks for review so that the issue could be examined further.

The entirety of the Cummings remarks to the OSRC are printed below:

Thank you, Chairman, for the opportunity to offer a public comment on behalf of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation once again.

I wanted to raise your attention to a situation at Mahoning Valley as it relates to that track's jackpot pick six wager.

When the Mahoning Valley season concluded in March, it was operating a jackpot pick six bet type with a 20% takeout. When no single ticket winner existed for a particular day, 30% of the net pool (after takeout) goes to the carryover jackpot with 70% of the net pool paid to all winning tickets with the highest number of winners that day.

This sort of division yielded a daily, “effective takeout” of 44%, meaning that if there was no single ticket winner, 44% of the daily amount bet was withheld, combining the takeout and the carryover.

Obviously, a 44% effective takeout is quite high, but in the nationwide landscape of jackpot bets, falls in about the mid-range of pricing for such a bet.

When racing resumed at Mahoning Valley in October, and without seemingly any public notice to the change, the terms of the jackpot withholding were altered. While takeout remained at 20%, if there was no single ticket winner, Mahoning Valley transferred 70% of the net pool to the jackpot and paid 30% of the net pool to the multiple ticketholders with the most winners that day.

So, the numbers were flipped – in March, 70% of the daily pool was paid and 30% withheld. In October, and every race day since with a carryover, 70% of the net pool is withheld and 30% paid.

This is troubling for a few reasons, but most notably, the impact to the bet's daily effective takeout has changed substantially with this adjustment, going from being in middle of the pack at 44% in March, to where it is now, with a daily effective takeout of an astounding 76%.

The Mahoning Valley Jackpot Pick Six now has, to our knowledge, the highest daily effective takeout on ANY bet offered to Thoroughbred horse racing customers in North America.

This is not a category where Ohio wants to be at the top of the pack.

For some comparison, in recent months, the daily, effective takeout from others with similar bets types include Churchill at 23.5%, Charles Town at 34%, Aqueduct at 40%, Laurel at 52%, Indiana at 60.75% and the California Fairs at 70%.

Turning horse racing wagering into lottery-type bets is bad for horse racing. Sustainable wagering from horse racing emanates from supporting high churn bets, not lottery-type bets such as this. Racing benefits from continued customer wagering – but on days when the bet is not hit by a single ticket (which has been 25 of 27 race days to date this meet), 76% of the daily pool is withheld.

So besides offering this comment, we wished to submit two items for your consideration upon further examination – has Mahoning Valley received written permission by the Commission to make this change, and why was it not better communicated to the public?

There was a carryover when racing stopped in March – a total of $2,620 – that money was available in a revised Jackpot Pick 6 bet with these new withholding terms when racing there resumed in October.

By changing the terms of the jackpot withholding – from 30% in March to 70% in October and every day since, there has been a substantive change in the wager, which based on a reading of the Ohio Racing Rules, specifically, Chapter 3769-3-40-J-2, should have required written approval.

It's entirely possible this was received.

Less understandable, however, is the lack of transparency regarding the change.

So, while we are unarguably against the proliferation of these bets, especially ones which carry an outrageous daily effective takeout, almost no communication about the change from Mahoning Valley is a poor experience for customers.

We would greatly appreciate the Commission's attention to this matter.

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A Conversation About Accuracy: 30,000 Falsehoods Annually

by Thoroughbred Idea Foundation

While Aunt Pearl’s performance in the [GII] J.P. Morgan Chase Jessamine S. on Oct. 7, 2020, was an impressive gate-to-wire score in a sizzling time, smashing the stakes record by more than two seconds, the pesky un-timed portion of nearly every American race played a role in the eye-popping clocking.

“Run-up” is the distance from where the gate is placed and the timing of the race begins–that is, the point at which the horses reach the published distance of the race. The Jessamine, and nearly every other race in North America, is not run over the distance listed in the program or past performances. So, when reporting the race was “1 1/16 miles”–that is really only the portion of the race which is timed, not the full distance run.

The actual distance the race covers, naturally, is the point from where the gate is placed to the finish, but depending on how far the gate is from the published distance of the race will dictate how much of ground at the start is covered before the horses reach the point which is 1 1/16 miles from the finish.

In the case of the Jessamine, the initial Equibase chart of the race reported 216 feet. Keeneland later informed Equibase that distance is closer to 100 feet, and the chart was amended.

The Daily Racing Form‘s Marty McGee covered the issue in the days after the race:

“[Bob] Elliston said additional gaps for entry to the turf course have been added this fall ‘in an attempt to try to preserve the surface by not placing the starting gate at the same position on the turf course at [often-run] distances. The gate can rough up the course through that kind of repetition.’

“For the Jessamine, the gate was ‘placed the farthest back of all the gap options,’ Elliston said. ‘Obviously, this is the kind of thing handicappers have a right to know about beforehand, so we’re making that information available on a regular basis.'”

At the suggestion of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF), Elliston confirmed that Keeneland would begin updating the daily run-up information on the track’s website, which can be found here on the “track conditions” page.

“We thank Keeneland for their attentiveness to the situation and getting the updated information to the public,” said Patrick Cummings, Executive Director of TIF.

“There needs to be an industry-wide discussion about accuracy in our sport. Every time entries are drawn for a new race, and they are published, our industry is misled into believing a race is being run over the distance that is listed. That is false–our sport reports about 30,000 falsehoods a year just in terms of the accurate distance of races run. We report the distance timed, not the distance run, and in so doing, disrespect everyone in the sport, but most especially the horseplayers and the horsemen.”

From the break of the gate to the finish in the 2020 Jessamine, Aunt Pearl ran for about 1:46. Last year in the same race, Sweet Melania ran for about 1:45. Images [found on] YouTube of each race show the gate in different positions relative to the distance poles on the various courses.

Craig Milkowski of TimeformUS confirmed from video timing software that the 2020 Jessamine field ran for about 5.31 seconds before timing began. He added that, based on this method of timing one-mile dirt races at Santa Anita, which have a reported 160 feet of run-up, routine run-up times are around 4.95 seconds. At Del Mar over the same distance, run-up is reported at 200 feet and the time is about 5.75 seconds of un-timed racing before the clock begins and horses reach the point one mile from the finish.

TIF published a report several weeks ago which highlighted gross inaccuracies in distances run at Saratoga, Gulfstream Park and Kentucky Downs. There have been few changes.

On the last day of racing at Gulfstream prior to their seasonal shift to Gulfstream West, Mo of the West won Race 9 carded at one mile on turf. The published final time was 1:36.44, but the horses actually ran for about 1:44.

“Aunt Pearl looks a very nice filly,” Cummings said, “but the raw information our sport presents to customers suggests she was potentially 12-14 lengths faster than any previous winner of the Jessamine.

“Even if Aunt Pearl is to be a future superstar, the next Zenyatta, it is almost impossible to believe she is that much faster than all previous winners of the race. What is not doubted is that she covered a longer course in the 2020 Jessamine, which seems to have had the longest run-up of any previous edition, and thus made the times faster given she got up to a higher speed once the clock started.

“This is just another reason that the sport’s speed and pace figuremakers are valuable for racing, they serve as an incredibly valuable check-and-balance to the raw data the sport presents. Take nothing away from the horse, but the times can be very misleading to the public given that tracks are not putting the gate in the same place and races are not effectively run over the same distance, particularly on turf, from year-to-year. In a sport where the difference between a big win and total loss can be incredibly small, accuracy matters so much.”

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Thoroughbred Idea Foundation: Run-Up Made Final Time Misleading In Jessamine

While Aunt Pearl's performance in the J.P. Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 7, 2020 was an impressive gate-to-wire score in a sizzling time, smashing the stakes record by more than two seconds, the pesky un-timed portion of nearly every American race played a role in the eye-popping clocking.

“Run-up” is the distance from where the gate is placed and the timing of the race begins – that is, the point at which the horses reach the published distance of the race. The Jessamine, and nearly every other race in North America, is not run over the distance listed in the program or past performances. So, when reporting the race was “1 1/16 miles” – that is really only the portion of the race which is timed, not the full distance run.

In the case of the Jessamine, the initial Equibase chart of the race reported 216 feet. Keeneland later informed Equibase that distance is closer to 100 feet, and the chart was amended.

The Daily Racing Form's Marty McGee covered the issue in the days after the race:

“Elliston said additional gaps for entry to the turf course have been added this fall 'in an attempt to try to preserve the surface by not placing the starting gate at the same position on the turf course at [often-run] distances. The gate can rough up the course through that kind of repetition.'

“For the Jessamine, the gate was 'placed the farthest back of all the gap options,' Elliston said. 'Obviously, this is the kind of thing handicappers have a right to know about beforehand, so we're making that information available on a regular basis.”

At the suggestion of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF), Elliston confirmed that Keeneland would begin updating the daily run-up information on the track's website, which can be found here on the “track conditions” page.

“We thank Keeneland for their attentiveness to the situation and getting the updated information to the public,” said Patrick Cummings, Executive Director of TIF.

“There needs to be an industry-wide discussion about accuracy in our sport. Every time entries are drawn for a new race, and they are published, our industry is misled into believing a race is being run over the distance that is listed. That is false – our sport reports about 30,000 falsehoods a year just in terms of the accurate distance of races run. We report the distance timed, not the distance run, and in so doing, disrespect everyone in the sport, but most especially the horseplayers and the horsemen.”

From the break of the gate to the finish in the 2020 Jessamine, Aunt Pearl ran for about 1:46. Last year in the same race, Sweet Melania ran for about 1:45.

Craig Milkowski of TimeformUS confirmed from video timing software that the 2020 Jessamine field ran for about 5.31 seconds before timing began. He added that, based on this method of timing one mile dirt races at Santa Anita, which have a reported 160 feet of run-up, routine run-up times are around 4.95 seconds. At Del Mar over the same distance, run-up is reported at 200 feet and the time is about 5.75 seconds of untimed racing before the clock begins and horses reach the point one mile from the finish.

TIF published a report several weeks ago which highlighted gross inaccuracies in distances run at Saratoga, Gulfstream Park and Kentucky Downs. There have been few changes.

“This is just another reason that the sport's speed and pace figuremakers are valuable for racing, they serve as an incredibly valuable check-and-balance to the raw data the sport presents. Take nothing away from the horse, but the times can be very misleading to the public given that tracks are not putting the gate in the same place and races are not effectively run over the same distance, particularly on turf, from year-to-year. In a sport where the difference between a big win and total loss can be incredibly small, accuracy matters so much.”

The post Thoroughbred Idea Foundation: Run-Up Made Final Time Misleading In Jessamine appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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