Equibase Analysis: Speaker’s Corner Poised To Upset Pennsylvania Derby

The Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby, which took a hiatus last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, is back and better than ever for 2021. Nine horses are likely to run, including Grade 1 Kentucky Derby third place finisher Hot Rod Charlie, who crossed the finish line first in the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes in July only to be disqualified for interference and placed last of seven.

Keepmeinmind and Bourbonic, respectively the seventh and 13th place Kentucky Derby finishers, are winless in six races combined since then and hope to improve back to top form, although it must be noted Keepmeinmind was only beaten a half-length for the win in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes in July by Essential Quality, who is bypassing this race after winning the Grade 1 Travers Stakes one month ago.

Fourth place Jim Dandy finisher Weyburn earned the biggest victory of his career this past March in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes but has only managed fourth place finishes in his two tries at this mile and one-eighth distance.

Midnight Bourbon improved off a sixth place effort in the Kentucky Derby to finish second in the Preakness, then did not finish the Haskell after losing his jockey when Hot Rod Charlie drifted into his path in the stretch. He enters the race off a strong runner-up effort, beaten a neck, to Essential Quality in the Travers.

Next comes a quartet of horses which have never run in the same races the other five have run. Fulsome just won the Grade 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx and earlier this year took the Oaklawn Stakes at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby so must be respected. Recent double stakes winner Americanrevolution is another horse deserving a close look as he won the Albany Stakes at this distance four weeks ago. I Am Redeemed has won three of four career start including the Storm Cat Stakes at Parx last month, while Speaker's Corner stretches out to two turns for the first time and runs in a stakes race off a very strong win at Saratoga last month.

Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit was entered but will not run in this race per an announcement Tuesday, Sept. 21.

Main contenders to win:

Trainer Bill Mott is in the Hall-of-Fame for many reasons, and one of those is his ability to know when a horse in his care is talented enough to compete at the top level. With that in mind, Speaker's Corner is my top choice to win this year's Pennsylvania Derby.

Speaker's Corner is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just three times. He debuted a little over one year ago and finished third then improved sensationally off the experience to win last October. Whatever kept him away from the races from last fall until last month is irrelevant now as Speaker's Corner returned on Aug. 14 to win impressively beating older horses at the distance of seven furlongs, which is a difficult task off a long layoff.

Jose Ortiz rode Speaker's Corner for the first time last month and returns again with a colt that is highly likely to take a big step up second off the layoff just as he did in his second career start. Considering Speaker's Corner earned a 107 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure with the effort last month, he could easily run faster than favorites Hot Rod Charlie (113 in July) and Midnight Bourbon (109 last month). In addition to the physical and mental improvement expected in his second start off a layoff, we can also expect Speaker's Corner to improve based on Bill Mott's record when stretching a horse out from sprint to a route off in its second start off a layoff in the past two years.

Specifically with 3-year-olds like Speaker's Corner, Mott did this with Candy Man Rocket when saddling him to victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes this winter, and with Art Collector just last month in the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga. Additionally, owner/breeder Godolphin, whose Essential Quality is one of the top 3-year-olds of 2021, is on a hot streak as they owned the winners of the Summer Stakes, the Natalma Stakes, the Pattison Canadian International and the Jockey Club Derby Invitational last weekend. As such, it may be very difficult to pass on Speaker's Corner as a win bet at high odds in this year's Pennsylvania Derby.

Americanrevolution is also likely to go to the gate at high odds, even though he has a perfect three-for-three record in 2021. Moving to the barn of Todd Pletcher for his first start of the year and second of his career and following eight months off, Americanrevolution won a sprint then when stretching out to two turns improved dramatically for a seven length win in the New York Derby. Better still, in the Albany Stakes last month at Saratoga and at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby, Americanrevolution won in a hand ride by five lengths to earn a 108 ™ figure which is logically going to be improved upon on his current pattern.

Jockey Luis Saez, who recently captured the Saratoga riding title against the strongest jockey colony in North America, has been aboard for all three of the colt's wins to date and will be in the saddle once again. A son of Constitution, whose Tiz the Law won four graded stakes as a three year old last year, Americanrevolution has tremendous potential to run well in this race and I would not hesitate to bet him to win in addition to Speaker's Corner if the odds are high.

Hot Rod Charlie is a street fighter of a horse, with a very strong competitive instinct backed up with great ability. First, second, or third in seven straight races, Hot Rod Charlie has never lost his physical edge since last October when earning his first win. Beaten one length when third in the Kentucky Derby and earning a career-best 109 figure in the process, Hot Rod Charlie battled head-and-head for most of the last half-mile in the often grueling Belmont Stakes five weeks later, beaten a bit over a length and 11 lengths clear of third place finisher Rombauer, who had just posted the upset win in the Preakness three weeks earlier. Then, in the Haskell Stakes in mid-July, Hot Rod Charlie did everything asked when beating Mandaloun by a nose, but was disqualified and placed last for drifting in with an eighth of a mile to go and in the steward's view causing Midnight Bourbon to trip and lose his jockey. That effort earned Hot Rod Charlie the best last race Equibase Figure in the field 113 which, if repeated, would make him very tough to beat. That is, if Speaker's Corner and Americanrevolution don't continue their patterns of improvement and run faster.

Midnight Bourbon has only won two of 11 career races, finishing second in four others. The best of those four came in his most recent race last month in the Travers. After leading from the start in an otherwise paceless race, Midnight Bourbon dug in and went head-and-head with Essential Quality for the entire last eighth of a mile, coming up a neck short and earning a 109 figure. Certainly if he can repeat that effort in the Pennsylvania Derby, Midnight Bourbon could be in the thick of the action at the finish.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Bourbonic (100), Fulsome (102), I Am Redeemed (111), Keepmeinmind (106) and Weyburn (109).

Win contenders:
Speaker's Corner
Americanrevolution
Hot Rod Charlie

Must use on exacta tickets and could possibly win:
Midnight Bourbon

Pennsylvania Derby – Grade 1
Race 12 at Parx Racing
Saturday September 25 – Post Time 5:49 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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Medina Spirit to Scratch from PA Derby

Medina Spirit (Protonico), the 2-1 morning-line favorite for Saturday's GI Pennsylvania Derby, will not be making the trip to Parx this weekend.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said Tuesday that the GI Kentucky Derby winner will remain in California and instead run in the GI Awesome Again S. against older horses at Santa Anita Oct. 2.

“I want to do what is best for the horse,” Baffert said. “I don't like the way he drew.”

Medina Spirit was assigned post position nine in the Pennsylvania Derby.

Medina Spirit, third as the favorite in the GI Preakness S., won Del Mar's Shared Belief S. Aug. 29.

“I was really looking forward to it,” Baffert said. “It's a great race with him in there, but it's something I have to do. I feel that part of my success is knowing when to run. This is a management call of mine.”

Baffert also said that Private Mission (Into Mischief), a runaway winner of the GIII Torrey Pines S., will bypass Saturday's GI Cotillion S. and instead point to the GII Zenyatta S. at Santa Anita Oct. 3.

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Obligatory Will Attempt ‘Two-Turn Test’ For Mott In Cotillion

The stage has been set for Saturday's 52nd Running of the Grade 1, $1 million Cotillion Stakes as nine fillies will contest the one and one sixteenth miles on the main track at Parx Racing, Bensalem, Pa.

Juddmonte's Obligatory will make her seventh career start and third consecutive Grade 1 try on Saturday for Hall of Fame Trainer Bill Mott. The filly by Curlin fell short by a half-length to Search Results in the Acorn at Belmont Park then finished fifth in the Test at Saratoga in her last start on August 7.

“The big thing for her is that it is a two-turn test,” Mott said. “We had only one two-turn race when she was quite inexperienced. She was not effective that day because of her inexperience. We're hoping she got more races under her belt. We know she's quite effective at seven-eighths and a flat mile at one turn. It's an experiment for us. I know it's a big race and she's doing well. I think she competes with those horses at a flat mile or a one-turn race. We have to see how she gets along at two turns.”

Previously, the Kentucky-bred filly began her career in the fall at Belmont Park as a 2-year-old and finished fourth. She then returned to break her maiden in her first start as a sophomore and followed up with a fourth-place finish in the Fair Grounds Oaks on March 20. Her strongest performance came in the Grade 2 Eight Belles at Churchill Downs on April 30, when she closed from last to win by a length at odds of 16 to 1.

Obligatory will break from the rail under regular rider Jose Ortiz at odds of 10 to 1.

Baoma Corporation's Private Mission will ship east from her Del Mar, California home and come to Parx in search of her third straight victory after winning against allowance company at Santa Anita then besting six others in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes at Del Mar.

The filly by Into Mischief has been training well towards Saturday according to Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert and will break from post seven under Flavien Prat.

“We will figure out a plan on game day,” Baffert said. “I think seven is ok. Sometimes it helps, sometimes it doesn't.”

Private Mission is 9 to 2 on the morning line.

Rounding out the field is: Allworthy from post 2 for trainer Joseph Saffie Jr., and jockey Florent Geroux at odds of 12 to 1. Will's Secret will break from post 3 for trainer Dallas Stewart and jockey Jon Court at 12 to 1. Maracuja drew post 4 for trainer Rob Atras and jockey Kendrick Carmouche at 8 to 1. Army Wife will run from post 5 for trainer Michael Maker and will be ridden by Joel Rosario at odds of 7 to 2. Clairiere runs from post 6 for Hall of Fame Trainer Steve Asmussen and will be piloted by Irad Ortiz Jr at 2 to 1. Always Carina trained by Chad Brown breaks from post 8 and will be ridden by Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez at odds of 6 to 1. Leader of the Band obtained post 9 for trainer John Servis and retains rider Frankie Pennington at 12 to 1.

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Trio Of ‘Heavyweights’ Among 10-Strong Lineup For Saturday’s Pennsylvania Derby

Three of the top contenders in Saturday's $1 million, Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing will be able to keep an eye on each other.

Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon and Medina Spirit will line up side-by-side-by-side when the gates open for the 1 1/8 mile race, the centerpiece of the 13-race card.

Road Runner Racing, William Strauss, Boat Racing and Gainesway Stables' Hot Rod Charlie was assigned post position seven at the Monday afternoon draw, which attracted 10 3-year-olds. Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon is right next door in post position eight and Zedan Racing Stables' Medina Spirit drew the nine.

Those are the top three choices on the Pennsylvania Derby morning line. Medina Spirit, who is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert and will be ridden by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, is the 2-1 morning line favorite and is coming off a win in the $100,000 Shared Belief at Del Mar on Aug. 29. Earlier this year, the son of Protonico won the Kentucky Derby and was third in the Preakness.

“They have all the heavyweights right next to each other,” Baffert said. “Once they draw, we don't worry about it. The break is important no matter what post they have.”

Hot Rod Charlie, the 5-2 second choice on the morning line, crossed the finish line first in the Grade I, $1 million Haskell at Monmouth in his last start on July 17, but was disqualified and placed last after Midnight Bourbon clipped heels with him.

“It's a lucky number. I like seven,” Hot Rod Charlie's trainer Doug O'Neill said about his post. “With a mile and an eighth race on a mile track like that, there is probably not real bad post. No matter where we are, everyone just wants to get in those doors and get a good, clean break.”

Midnight Bourbon is third on the morning line at 5-1. He is trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen and will be ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr. When last seen Midnight Bourbon finished second in the Grade I, $1 million Travers at Saratoga, beaten by a neck by Essential Quality, the leader of the 3-year-old division

Keepmeinmind, owned by Cypress Creek Equine, Arnold Bennewith and Spendthrift Farm LLC, will be coming to Parx after running against Essential Quality twice at Saratoga. He was second to him in the Grade II, $600,000 Jim Dandy on July 31 and fourth in the Travers. Trained by Robertino Diodoro and ridden by Joel Rosario, Keepmeinmind will be looking for his second career win in his 12th start. He is 8-1 on the morning line.

Four horses are coming into the race with morning line odds of 12-1: Calumet Farm's Bourbonic, third in the Grade III, $500,000 West Virginia Derby in his last start, Juddmonte Farm's Fulsome, winner of the Grade III Smarty Jones at Parx on Aug. 24, Godolphin LLC's Speaker's Corner, an allowance winner at Saratoga in his first start of 2021 at Saratoga on Aug. 14 and Chiefswood Stables Limited's Weyburn, fourth in the Jim Dandy when last seen.

The other two horses in the field are WinStar Farms and China Horse Club Inc's Americanrevolution, winner of three straight races against New York-breds, including the $250,000 Albany Stakes on Saratoga on Aug. 27 and the locally based I Am Redeemed, owned by Lawrence A. Rebbecchi Jr. He has won three of four career starts at Parx.

Here is the Pennsylvania Derby field, in post-position order, with trainer, jockey and morning line odds: 1. Fulsome, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 12-1; 2. Keepmeinmind, Robertino Diodoro, Joel Rosario, 8-1; 3. Speaker's Corner, Bill Mott, Jose Ortiz, 12-1; 4. Weyburn, Jimmy Jerkens, Paco Lopez, 12-1; 5. I Am Redeemed, Penny Pearce, Abner Adorno, 20-1; 6. Bourbonic, Todd Pletcher, Kendrick Carmouche, 12-1; 7. Hot Rod Charlie, Doug O'Neill, Flavien Prat, 5-2; 8. Midnight Bourbon, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 5-1; 9. Medina Spirit, Bob Baffert, John Velazquez, 2-1; 10. Americanrevolution, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 15-1.

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