This Side Up: Still Amending the Derby Agenda

We should have known better. The moment we deceived ourselves that we had a crossroads of perfect symmetry, with four standout colts converging inexorably on the first Saturday in May, one promptly limped off the trail and then last weekend another was beaten at odds-on. Nobody, then, will be making any assumptions when the other two complete their GI Kentucky Derby preparations, Concert Tour (Street Sense) in the GI Arkansas Derby next week and Essential Quality (Tapit) as the geographical and narrative pivot of three rehearsals staged coast to coast Saturday.

That said, the juvenile champion gets a home game, round a circuit where he has already won two Grade Is. It will be on the margins of East and West, then, that we seem more likely to see a breakout after the manner of Known Agenda (Curlin) last week. Not that anyone in the Greatest Honour (Tapit) camp is too downbeat after he had to settle for third behind that old rival in the GI Florida Derby. I was heartened by the fidelity of colleague T.D. Thornton to Greatest Honour, who retained the No. 1 spot in his Derby Top 12 this week. Because these adolescent horses seldom crown a curve of relentless improvement under the Twin Spires: very often, they will need to have soaked up some adversity on the way, to have absorbed a tough lesson or two before regrouping. Greatest Honour has been on the punchbag all winter and was entitled to drop a glove this once, especially with such a messy trip. We know that his trainer will always have been working back from one date, and one date only.

With that date now looming so large, however, there's a kind of exquisite tension for all these horsemen, trying to achieve an equilibrium between their own restraint, and the fitness and seasoning of their charges. Remember that's exactly what they do every day, with horses at every level. It's just that the whole process is so much more visible here, because of the extremity of the test and the depth of the associated lore.

Many of us profess a sentimental attachment to the old school, with an emphasis on grounding, but modern trainers make their own rules. Obviously last year's race was an outlier, its postponement as ruinous to other horses as it was helpful to the raw Authentic (Into Mischief). But in 2018 we had a Triple Crown winner unraced before February 18; and the following year the first past the post had started off in midwinter under a $16,000 tag, and his works might have been as usefully clocked with a sundial as a stopwatch.

Medina Spirit has only been beaten by Life Is Good | Benoit

Bob Baffert's mastery of the definitive challenge of his calling now puts him within reach of a seventh Derby, and an outright record, even after losing the services of Life Is Good (Into Mischief). In that colt's lamentable absence from the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, we have a twist in the astonishing tale of Medina Spirit (Protonico), the $1,000 short yearling who somehow found his way into the most lavishly stocked barn in the land. But nothing should surprise us with the genius of his trainer. Remember that Medina Spirit, having been pinhooked to a giddy $35,000, was actually twice as expensive as Real Quiet (Quiet American)!

He would be unbeaten but for Life Is Good and he's been working the house down since a minor throat procedure. Baffert plus Medina Spirit is like Goliath teaming up with David, but this race does offer romantics the option of Rock Your World (Candy Ride {Arg}), bred by Hall of Famer Ron McAnally.

Undefeated Rock Your World switches to dirt | Benoit

You imagine John Sadler has not been short of humorous counsel on the backside, especially as the veteran McAnally, who nowadays supervises just with a handful of animals, managed a graded stakes placing for Rock Your World's older sister She's Our Charm during the winter. McAnally trained both the parents, namely Candy Ride (Arg) and dual Grade I-placed juvenile Charm the Maker (Empire Maker); and actually McAnally and wife Deborah bred the first three dams. But Sadler is certainly rewriting Derby rules with this colt, switching from turf after teaching him about dirt with some pretty heavy duty drills.

The last four runnings have been divided between Baffert and John Shirreffs, who intriguingly perseveres with Parnelli (Quality Road) as though he has more ability than we've been seeing of late. Recent works suggest that the blinkers are helping, much as they did Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) when Parnelli ran the GII Louisiana Derby winner to a neck in the fall.

Interesting to see a Californian shipper taking on Essential Quality, in Rombauer (Twirling Candy), though the most feasible GII Toyota Blue Grass S. wildcard is surely Known Agenda's raw but devastating barnmate Untreated (Nyquist). In the GII Wood Memorial (presented by Resorts World Casino), meanwhile, a similarly late play from Prevalance (Medaglia d'Oro) will help Godolphin decide whether he's progressing fast enough to join their champion in Louisville. If not, then they will hope that at least Risk Taking (Medaglia d'Oro) can go forward on behalf of their big stallion, who joins Tapit and Curlin in craving the Derby as a seal on all their other success.

A playful Weyburn last month at Belmont | Susie Raisher

Pioneerof the Nile beat those big hitters to that distinction before his premature loss, which would be felt all the more keenly if Weyburn were to emerge as a new Derby force from this race. I can definitely see that happening, the Chiefswood homebred being born for this second turn with first three dams by A.P. Indy, Sunday Silence and Nijinsky. The third dam, indeed, is Maplejinsky, dam of Sky Beauty (Blushing Groom {Fr})–so seeing the name Jerkens on the card gives us that warm glow, too. This is an April 21 foal, paradoxically just the kind of thing we like for the Derby, and I love the gutsy way this horse carried his speed through a demanding mile after a lay-off.

So forget that neat and orderly crossroads. On the day itself, we know it will be chaos out there; and the same applies to the four weeks in between. Some engines stalling, others suddenly roaring into life; lights turning red, lights turning green. And with horsemen like Jerkens, Shirreffs and Sadler trying to weave into the traffic, with all their skill and experience, for now it still feels like we don't even know which way round to hold the Derby map.

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Equibase Analysis: Parnelli Poised For Upset In Sham Stakes

Five horses will line up for Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park, one of the first Road to the Derby points races of the New Year. Bob Baffert, who won the race last year with Authentic, saddles a pair in Life is Good and Medina Spirit, both of which are making their second career starts and won their debut efforts convincingly. Similarly, trainer John Shirreffs saddles last out maiden winner Parnelli and G1 American Pharoah Stakes fourth place finisher Waspirant, who broke his maiden prior to that. Uncle Boogie rounds out the field, coming into the race off a second place finish in the G3 Bob Hope Stakes.

With only five entered, this kind or race will be one in which tactics are everything. Additionally, with three of the five (Life is Good, Medina Spirit and Uncle Boogie) stretching out in distance and trying two turns for the first time, the pace could be faster than average. Life is Good earned the best Equibase Speed Figure in the field, 106, winning his one and only race by nine lengths leading from start to finish. However, he ran the first six furlongs in :44.8 which, if repeated in the Sham likely means he would be vulnerable to being passed late.

Parnelli led from the start and through the opening half-mile in his first two races at a mile, missing by a neck in the latter of the two races with a very strong 105 figure on par with Life is Good. Then in his most recent start, Parnelli relaxed in third in the early stages, about one and one-half lengths from the leader, before drawing off to win by nearly six lengths. Therefore it stands to reason Parnelli might be the one closest to Life is Good in the early stages and if indeed that colt goes too fast early, Parnelli is the one to pass Life is Good and win the Sham Stakes.

Medina Spirit earned a 99 figure winning his debut three weeks ago, at the distance of five and one-half furlongs. Although improvement can be expected off the experience of that debut, it may be a lot to ask to stretch out two and one-half furlongs (more than a quarter mile) and run as well compared to horses with experience at the distance like Parnelli or a horse like Life is Good who also can improve and who earned a figure seven points higher in his debut.

Uncle Boogie won his debut at five and one-half furlongs in October, as impressively as either Medina Spirit or Life is Good, but only earned a 79 figure. However, he improved to 84 in his second start (when the runner-up) then repeated that 84 figure effort when rallying from sixth to second in the Bob Hope Stakes in mid-November. Likely to be last of the five in the early stages, if the early pace is contested and much faster than average, Uncle Boogie could be passing them all for the upset win.

Waspirant rounds out the field, having won at this mile trip in August in his second career start with an 81 figure, then a non-threatening fourth in the American Pharoah Stakes at the end of September. It's a tough question to ask a horse to come back off three months in a route against horses who have shown to be faster and which have run much more recently.

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Parnelli
Life is Good

Sham Stakes – Grade 3
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, January 2, 2021 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
One Mile
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $100,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Parnelli Poised For Upset In Sham Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Derby Prep: Dazzling Maiden Winner Life Is Good Stretches Out In Saturday’s Sham Stakes

A dazzling 9 ½ length maiden winner in his first start, Bob Baffert's Life Is Good will no doubt be a short priced favorite as he stretches out to a flat mile and heads a field of five sophomores in Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.

Named in honor of the winner of the 1973 Santa Anita Derby, the Sham winner will receive 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, with four to second, two to third and one Derby qualifying point to the fourth place finisher.

Off at 1-5 with Mike Smith up in a field of five going 6 ½ furlongs on Nov. 22 at Del Mar, Life Is Good earned a lofty 91 Beyer Speed figure in his maiden win, easily best of those competing in the Sham. Purchased as a Keeneland September Yearling for $525,000, he made the lead easily through splits of 21.80, 44.80 and 1:09 flat en route to a smashing 9 ½ length score while getting the distance in 1:15.40.

Bred in Kentucky by Gary and Mary West, Life Is Good is by top stallion Into Mischief and is out of the Distorted Humor mare Beach Walk, who was winless in five starts. Owned by China Horse Club, Inc. and WinStar Farm, Life Is Good will be making his second start as he tries to provide Baffert, who won the 2020 Sham with eventual Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, with his record seventh Sham Stakes winner.

Baffert will also be represented by first-out maiden winner Medina Spirit, who sped to a three length score going 5 ½ furlongs at Los Alamitos on Dec. 11 while earning a 76 Beyer.

The John Shirreffs-conditioned Parnelli, a $500,000 Keeneland September Yearling, was attentive to the early pace en route to a huge 5 Âľ length maiden win as the 1-5 favorite going a flat mile at Del Mar on Nov. 28. Owned by Lee and Susan Searing's C R K Stable, Parnelli, who is by Quality Road, out of the unraced Bernardini mare Sip Sip, will likely set a close second to Life Is Good in what will be his fifth start. Second in his first three assignments, the last two at one mile, Parnelli earned a 79 Beyer in breaking his maiden and will be ridden back by Drayden Van Dyke.

Shirreffs will also saddle Waspirant, who also broke his maiden at one mile, winning by three quarters of a lengths after stalking the pace on Aug. 29 at Del Mar with regular rider Umberto Rispoli. Subsequently a well beaten fourth in the G1 American Pharoah going a mile and one sixteenth here Sept. 26, he'll be making his fourth start and third consecutive try at two turns in the Sham.

Owned and bred by Pam and Martin Wygod, Waspirant is by Union Rags out of the Storm Cat mare Life is Sweet, who was a multiple Grade I stakes winning earner of more than $1.8 million.

A first-out maiden $32,000 claiming winner going 5 ½ furlongs here on Oct. 12, trainer Andrew Lerner's Uncle Boogie came back to be a solid second in a first condition allowance going 5 ½ furlongs as the even money favorite at Del Mar Oct. 31. Most recently second to runaway winner Red Flag in the G3 Bob Hope Stakes at seven furlongs Nov. 15, Uncle Boogie, a Florida-bred colt by Ride On Curlin who was purchased for $38,000 at an Ocala Sales 2-year-old in training sale in July, retains the services of Flavien Prat will likely seek a stalking trip in his first try around two turns. Owned by Eric Homme, he'll be making his fourth overall start.

THE G3 SHAM STAKES WITH JOCKEYS & WEIGHTS IN POST POSITION ORDER

Race 8 of 9 Approximate post time 4 p.m. PT

  1. Medina Spirit—Abel Cedillo—120
  2. Waspirant—Umberto Rispoli—120
  3. Parnelli—Drayden Van Dyke—120
  4. Uncle Boogie—Flavien Prat—120
  5. Life Is Good—Mike Smith—120

First post time for a nine-race card on Saturday is at 12:30 p.m. All of Santa Anita's races are offered free of charge at santaanita.com/live and fans can watch and wager at 1st.com/Bet.

The post Derby Prep: Dazzling Maiden Winner Life Is Good Stretches Out In Saturday’s Sham Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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