Can Royal Scotsman Deliver in the Irish Guineas?

There was a time around three decades ago when Paul Cole's name was synonymous with the turf's leading lights left, right and centre around Europe. Over 30 years on from his last win in any of the British, Irish or French Classics, the Whatcombe Estate frontiersman who now runs his stable along with son Oliver has found one again. Not since the heady days of Generous (Ire) and co has the Berkshire stable been as electrified as it is at present thanks to Royal Scotsman (Ire) (Gleneagles {Ire}) and it is with great expectations and some jitters that they await the reckoning of Jim and Fitri Hays' flag-bearer  in Saturday's G1 Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas at The Curragh.

What is beyond doubt is that Royal Scotsman is a class act, with his close second to Chaldean (GB) (Frankel {GB}) in the G1 Dewhurst S. possibly even better form than his third in the 2000 Guineas itself, with the Newmarket Classic's cutting edge blunted by nagging heavy rain. When the sun burned and the turf rode slick at the Goodwood Festival in July, he was able to take apart the six-furlong G2 Richmond S. with pace that will be lethal if he can carry it this far.

Strongly-supported by the hard hitters on Friday, Royal Scotsman will most likely head to post the favourite and Oliver Cole is abuzz with the cross-sea travelling having gone to plan. “He's in great form, he left for Ireland on Thursday night and arrived Friday morning and has eaten up, so we couldn't be happier with him,” he said. “To do what he did at Newmarket, to be keen and pull for four furlongs and then finish shows he's pretty good. He broke the track record in the Richmond at Goodwood and he was in the second-fastest ever Dewhurst–his sectionals were amazing after the first furlong. He is a very, very good horse, everything just needs to go right for him.”

A Classic Conundrum...
While it is too early to say, the 2000 Guineas looks far from vintage at this stage and this version follows the same narrative on paper at least. Newmarket's Classic was stacked even more than usual with fast colts, who bar Auguste Rodin (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) seemed the most exciting of those lining up but so many hopes were ultimately dashed as the ground deepened and stretched staying power all around. While the Irish 2000 is set to take place on far livelier terrain, those who helped light up the Classic three weeks ago are already firmly on the road to the Commonwealth Cup.

So what are we left with? TDN Rising Star Hi Royal (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}) exceeded all expectations to be an errant second, one of a long line of rank outsiders to make the frame in the Guineas, but it is impossible to tell how he will back up here. Royal Scotsman may have been third after over-racing, but he far from convinced with how well he ultimately saw out the mile.

The O'Brien Factor…
Six of the last 10 winners of this hadn't been to Newmarket, which of course brings in the Aidan O'Brien contingent (is there ever a time when they could be safely counted out?) and in particular the Listed Tetrarch S.-winning TDN Rising Star Paddington (GB) (Siyouni {Fr}) with all his upside. While he will have his many supporters, it is perhaps Donnacha who has charge of the colt with all the boxes ticked. Step forward Proud And Regal (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), who went the Mac Swiney route of Leopardstown's G3 Derby Trial only to fall short against Jessie Harrington's genuine Derby contender Sprewell (Ire) (Churchill {Ire}).

Proud And Regal won on debut here in June, went too fast early in the Futurity on his second visit and already needed further than seven furlongs when denied in the Vincent O'Brien National S. tackling the Kildare venue for the third time. His one try at a mile yielded a Criterium International, but the heavy ground there would have been against the chestnut son of Simply Perfect (GB) (Danehill) so his defeat of Ballydoyle's classy Espionage (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) could even be upgraded.

In The Fast Lane…
A Classic is a Classic, but few would forgive those who are placing Haydock's G2 Sandy Lane S. over the Curragh feature on Saturday, such is the pull of the 3-year-old sprinting generation this year. As mentioned above, the Guineas boasted the likes of Noble Style (GB) (Kingman {GB}), Sakheer (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) and Little Big Bear (Ire) (No Nay Never) and while the former has since disappointed, the latter is very much alive and kicking in the category. This is a case of clean slate for the brilliant juvenile of 2022, who has everything in his favour and defeat here will not be enough to stop the worries that he is not the force he was. Physically, the beast who took apart the Phoenix assembly including the beleaguered fellow TDN Rising Star Bradsell (GB) (Tasleet {GB}) must be at least as good this year and with the calendar stacked against Ryan Moore, it is Frankie who gets to push the buttons for possibly the only time. Lucky man.

What Now For Bradsell?
We see it every year. A wide-margin, dynamic Spring success for a juvenile blessed with “early”, possibly a Royal Ascot sprint wrapped up while that precocity still dominates and then a slow slide into the wilderness. For Bradsell, the latter scenario has thankfully not played out with injury stopping him after his unlucky experience in the Phoenix and a highly respectable comeback effort in Ascot's G3 Pavilion S. last month. While the re-opposing winner Cold Case (GB) (Showcasing {GB}) had his measure that day, Victorious Racing's Coventry hero is on a sounder surface here and Archie Watson has him in a good place. “He travelled very well at Ascot and got a bit tired late, which was to be expected,” he said. “I hope he can take a good step forwards fitness-wise from there. It looks a very strong trial for the Commonwealth Cup. I'd say whatever wins will be the one to beat at Ascot, so at least we'll all know after the weekend.”

Back In Her Comfort Zone?
One of the big performances of the two Guineas at Newmarket was that of Matilda Picotte (Ire) (Sioux Nation) in the 1000 as she effectively “won” the race behind Mawj (Ire) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}) and Tahiyra (Ire) (Siyouni {Fr}) despite having appeared to have gone off too quickly. Having been third in the Lowther when possibly York's fast six furlongs proved too slick, she made all in Newmarket's Listed Bosra Sham Fillies' S. as the ground eased in the autumn so it is a question of whether it will all be happening too quickly again here. “Her Guineas run puts her in the picture and we should be bang there,” trainer Kieran Cotter said. “In an ideal situation we would have liked a bit of rain, but she handled quick ground when she ran at York in the Lowther and she is pretty versatile.”

Fields Of Stars…
Saturday's cluttered action across Britain and Ireland requires a whistle-stop preview and much analysis after with Royal Ascot particularly in mind. The Curragh's card sees the TDN Rising Stars Noche Magica (Ire) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}) and Democracy (Ire) (No Nay Never) go the “Blackbeard route” to Berkshire, while the G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp heroine The Platinum Queen (Ire) (Cotai Glory {GB}) makes her debut for Katsumi Yoshida and Roger Varian in Haydock's G2 Temple S. White Birch Farm's unbeaten Prince of Wales's S. and Eclipse entry Francesco Clemente (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) faces his first black-type test in Goodwood's Listed Festival S., while York's G3 Bronte Cup plays host to George Strawbridge's G2 Park Hill S.-winning 4-year-old Mimikyu (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}). Her sister Journey (GB) really got going at that age, so its still all to play for the quirky but talented representative of the Gosdens.

Tahiyra Heads Sunday Delights…
Dermot Weld would have been heartened by the inside draw handed to Tahiyra (Ire) (Siyouni {Fr}) in Sunday's G1 Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas at The Curragh as The Aga Khan's TDN Rising Star was the key member of the 10-strong cast confirmed on Friday. Also set to be represented by live contender Tarawa (Ire) (Shamardal), the Rosewell House handler has booked Billy Lee for that G3 Cornelscourt S. runner-up. Aidan O'Brien's trio is headed by Tahiyra's old rival Meditate (Ire) (No Nay Never), who is alongside the likely favourite in two and set for a Moyglare rematch on the faster ground she relishes so that scores can finally be settled. A thrilling G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup was confirmed, with Vadeni (Fr) (Churchill {Ire}), Bay Bridge (GB) (New Bay {GB}) and Luxembourg (Ire) (Camelot {GB}) good to go in the first big older horse encounter of the European season.

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Siyouni’s Paddington Eases To Tetrarch Success

Maintaining the Ballydoyle momentum at The Curragh on Monday, TDN Rising Star Paddington (GB) (Siyouni {Fr}–Modern Eagle {Ger}, by Montjeu {Ire}) justified 5-6 favouritism with a degree of comfort in the Listed Coolmore Stud Blackbeard Irish EBF Tetrarch S. to point the way to the upcoming mile Classics. Coming off a win in the Madrid Handicap at Naas, the bay who was bred and raised at Monceaux for the Wildensteins tracked the leading pair up to a mile for the first time before being coaxed to the front by Seamie Heffernan two out. Challenged by stablemate Drumroll (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), he stretched away from that full-brother to Saxon Warrior (Jpn) to score by 1 1/2 lengths.

According to Aidan O'Brien, Paddington could now follow the route of the stable's famous son of Siyouni, St Mark's Basilica (Fr). “He'd have the option of going to the French Guineas or the Irish Guineas and then he could end up being a French Derby horse after that,” he said. “He handles the ground well, he's by Siyouni out of a Montjeu mare so should handle it on both sides.”

Paddington is currently the last known foal out of the Listed Prix Belle de Nuit winner Modern Eagle, whose first foal Masterpiece (Fr) (Mastercraftsman {Ire}) was twice listed-placed in France. She is a daughter of the G1 Prix de Diane runner-up Millionaia (Ire) (Peintre Celebre) and a half to the Listed Vintage Tipple S. winner and G3 Loughbrown S.-placed Mighty Blue (Fr) by Montjeu's Authorized (Ire). Millionaia is out of the G1 Prix Saint-Alary heroine Moonlight Dance (Alysheba), who is also the second dam of the G2 Prix du Conseil de Paris scorer Ming Dynasty (Fr) (King's Best) while the fourth dam Madelia (Fr) (Caro) scored three times at the highest level including in the Diane.

Monday, Curragh, Ireland
COOLMORE STUD BLACKBEARD IRISH EUROPEAN BREEDERS FUND TETRARCH S.-Listed, €50,000, Curragh, 5-1, 3yo, 8fT, 1:46.68, sf.
1–PADDINGTON (GB), 131, c, 3, by Siyouni (Fr)
     1st Dam: Modern Eagle (Ger) (SW-Fr), by Montjeu (Ire)
     2nd Dam: Millionaia (Ire), by Peintre Celebre
     3rd Dam: Moonlight Dance, by Alysheba
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN. (€420,000 Ylg '21 ARQDOY). O-Tabor/Smith/Magnier/Westerberg/Brant; B-Dayton Investments Ltd (GB); T-Aidan O'Brien; J-Seamie Heffernan. €30,000. Lifetime Record: 4-3-0-0, $71,196.
2–Drumroll (Ire), 131, c, 3, Deep Impact (Jpn)–Maybe (Ire), by Galileo (Ire).
1ST BLACK TYPE. O-Mrs J Magnier/M Tabor/D Smith/Westerberg; B-Maybe Syndicate (IRE); T-Aidan O'Brien. €10,000.
3–Mister Mister (Ger), 131, c, 3, Sea The Moon (Ger)–Miss Germany (Ger), by Lord Of England (Ger). 1ST BLACK TYPE. (165,000gns Ylg '21 TATOCT). O-Rectory Road Holdings Limited; B-Gestut Gorlsdorf (GER); T-Joseph O'Brien. €5,000.
Margins: 1HF, 1 3/4, 3HF. Odds: 0.83, 6.00, 10.00.
Also Ran: Cuban Dawn (Ire), Bold Discovery, Duke of Leggagh (Ire).

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Luxembourg The Star of Bank Holiday Bonanza

High-quality racing across Ireland, France and Germany awaits the racing fraternity on Monday, with The Curragh's G2 Coolmore Stud Sottsass Irish EBF Mooresbridge S. seeing the return to the fray of Ballydoyle's key older campaigner Luxembourg (Ire) (Camelot {GB}). Plagued by muscular issues last term, the 2021 G1 Futurity Trophy winner still managed to upstage Onesto (Ire) (Frankel {GB}) and Vadeni (Fr) (Churchill {Ire}) in Leopardstown's G1 Irish Champion S. on one of his better days in September and connections will be hoping that a clear run can see him shine even brighter in the weeks ahead.

Mare Trouble…
Interestingly, Luxembourg who comes with the customary “will-improve” tag, encounters the mare Insinuendo (Ire) (Gleneagles {Ire}) who so nearly upset the odds when he was returning from his first injury-enforced rehab period in the G3 Royal Whip over this course and distance in August. These races don't always come easy and that is certainly the case this time, with another femme fatale lying in wait in the G1 Prix Saint-Alary and G2 Blandford S.-winning TDN Rising Star Above The Curve (American Pharoah), not to mention the G2 Prix de la Nonette winner Trevaunance (Ire) (Muhaarar {GB}). Like Vadeni and Bay Bridge on Sunday, Luxembourg might have to wait a bit longer for that familiar taste of success…

Off To A Flier…
The Curragh's card gets swinging with the Listed GAIN First Flier S., the first of its kind for the domestic juvenile crop of 2023 which includes the Paddy Twomey-trained TDN Rising Star Noche Magica (Ire) (Night of Thunder {Ire}). Having made such an instant impact at Cork earlier this month, Mohammed Ahmad Ali Al Subousi's slick traveller looks ready-made to be one of the top early 2-year-olds as Royal Ascot looms. Interestingly, Aidan O'Brien has a pair of newcomers engaged including His Majesty (Ire) by No Nay Never, sire of last year's winner Blackbeard (Ire). Does the title give a clue as to the regard in which the 325,000gns son of the group 3 scorer Czabo (GB) (Sixties Icon {GB}) is held?

The Next Stop…
There is a chance that by the time the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains comes around, Ballydoyle's TDN Rising Star Paddington (GB) (Siyouni {Fr}) will have a fitness and experience edge as well as possibly a class edge over several of his peers. Already the winner of the historic Madrid Handicap at Naas, he preps for the ParisLongchamp Classic in the Listed Coolmore Stud Blackbeard Irish EBF Tetrarch S. in which he is joined by the stable's Drumroll (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), a full-brother to Saxon Warrior (Jpn) who opened his account first time at Navan in March. The Tetrarch used to be an important Guineas trial and it can still promote a future star of that ilk as the 2016 winner Awtaad (Ire) (Cape Cross {Ire}) testified.

Muguet Offerings…
   Saint-Cloud stages its traditional May 1 la Fête du Travail fixture, where another Classic trial on the wane is the Prix Greffulhe, newly downgraded from group 2 to group 3 status despite its honour roll which features Onesto (Ire) (Frankel {GB}). That future luminary was incredibly 12-1 last year, but there doesn't on the face of it appear to be one of his ilk lining up this time. This therefore is surely a must-win for Ballydoyle's Greenland (Ire) (Saxon Warrior {Jpn}), who trailed the under-rated Big Rock (Fr) (Rock Of Gibraltar {Ire}) when third in the G3 Prix la Force at ParisLongchamp last month. That aperitif is served before the feature G2 Prix du Muguet, where The Aga Khan's exciting G2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein-winning TDN Rising Star Erevann (Fr) (Dubawi {Ire}) starts his big year in preparation for Royal Ascot's G1 Queen Anne S.

See The Classic Stars…
Not to be undone by its French and Irish counterparts, Munich hosts a tantalising renewal of its showcase 10-furlong G3 WETTSTAR.de – Bavarian Classic in which Wanja Soren Oberhof and Sebastian Weiss's TDN Rising Star Mr Hollywood (Ire) (Iquitos {Ger}). Winning his Mulheim maiden by 16 lengths last month, the Henk Grewe-trained bay takes on Liberty Racing 2021's G3 Preis des Winterfavoriten winner Fantastic Moon (Ger) (Sea The Moon {Ger}) and Stall Nizza's mightily-impressive G3 Herzog von Ratibor-Rennen scorer Alpenjager (Ger) (Nutan {Ire}) in a Deutsches Derby pointer to savour.

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