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Strength at the Top as OBS March Concludes with a Million-Dollar Munnings Filly

by Jessica Martini & Christina Bossinakis

OCALA, FL – With plenty of activity at the top of the market, the Ocala Breeders' Sales Company's March Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training concluded its three-day run with increases in average and median over last year's two-session renewal and five juveniles selling for seven figures, led by a co-record $2-million son of Good Magic.

“I thought it was a really good sale and it held strong all the way through,” said OBS Director of Sales Tod Wojciechowski. “There were quality horses on each day and we sold five horses for over a million dollars. The gross was up substantially, which you would expect because we had a lot more horses, but still there were a lot of good horses. Consignors continue to bring quality horses here and they get rewarded for it.”

Through three sessions, OBS sold 449 horses for a total of $70,399,500. The average was $156,792–up 17.5% from the two-day 2022 figure. The median rose 6.7% to $80,000.

A year ago, 371 horses grossed $49,498,000 for an average of $133,418 and a median of $75,000.

A filly by Munnings, just the second horse through the ring Wednesday, was the fifth of the auction to top seven figures when selling for $1 million to bloodstock agent Donato Lanni, bidding on behalf of Frank Fletcher. She was the second million-dollar horse from the Tom McCrocklin consignment

A total of 24 horses sold for $500,000 or over this year, double last year's total, while the five million-dollar juveniles in 2023 was one more than the 2022 number.

The buy-back rate remained well over 2022 levels throughout the three sessions, concluding at 23.2%. It was 13.7% a year ago. From a catalogue of 833 horses, 585 went through the ring, with 248 outs and 136 buy-backs.

The 2023 catalogue had 198 more head than last year's auction, but only 78 more horses sold.

Asked to assess the strength of the middle market, Wojciechowski said, “There was some middle market here. There always seems to be a flight to quality to the upper end of the market, but I think there was some strength all of the way through.”

Buyers noted the strength of the top end of the market, but were more critical of the middle market.

“The perceived good ones are making all of the money and there is no middle market, there is no money for the others at this sale,” bloodstock agent Marette Farrell said, adding she expected to see a broader buying bench next month at the OBS April sale.

Bloodstock agent Lauren Carlisle agreed with Farrell.

“It was tough,” Carlisle said of the market in Ocala this week. “I've been outbid mostly. I got one yesterday. The colts are very tough. I got a filly yesterday. That's probably the only reason I could buy her was because she was a girl. It seems like people are focusing in on the boys and the really top horses. And if people don't like them, there is a drop-off. Maybe in April, the middle market will come back, there might be more middle buyers.”

And yet demand remained high for those horses who jumped through all the proverbial hoops.

“I think you get rewarded,” said consignor Ciaran Dunne. “The breeze show is the be all and end all and if you perform on the racetrack, you get rewarded and rewarded handsomely. And if you miss, it's like any endeavor, if you play soccer and you miss the goal, you don't get paid.”

De Meric Sales was the leading consignor at the March sale, with 38 head sold for $6,255,000. Mike Ryan was the auction's leading buyer with eight purchased for $2,210,000.

Munnings Filly Produces Fireworks Early at OBS March

Hip 558 | Photos by Z

It didn't take long for the fireworks to begin during Wednesday's third and final session of the OBS March Sale. Digging in for only the second juvenile through the ring, agent Donato Lanni, bidding on behalf of Arkansas businessman Frank Fletcher, extended to $1 million to secure Hip 558, a filly by Munnings. Trainer Chad Brown, bidding from the other side of the pavilion, was the chief underbidder. Offered by Tom McCrocklin, the filly breezed a quarter in :20 4/5 last Thursday.

“She was an exceptional filly, said Lanni, who was flanked by Bill Mott during the bidding. “She worked great and came back good. She was a picture–just a really cool filly.”

According to Lanni, the Hall of Famer will train the filly. Mott also is responsible for Fletcher's MGSW and millionaire Frank's Rockette (Into Mischief), winner of her two recent wins at Gulfstream–the GIII Sugar Swirl S. and GIII Hurricane Bertie S.

“Frank is on a roll and has had a very good winter,” said Lanni. “He loves the game and is good for the business.”

Bred by Springhouse Farm, the bay brought $450,000 from McCrocklin, who signed on behalf of Michael Sucher's Champion Equine after purchasing the bay at last summer's Saratoga Select yearling sale.

“She was an expensive filly going in and is just a beautiful horse,” said McCrocklin. “The idea all along was to put her in a 2-year-old in training sale. It's not conventional, it's a lot of money. But she has really lived up to the expectation. Just a classy filly. She trained well and is very sound. She breezed extremely well and galloped out fast. And she had all the right people on her.”

The Apr. 26 foal is out of In Full Compliance, a daughter of Smart Strike. This is the family of Grade I winners Chaposa Springs and You and I.

According to McCrocklin, the vetting activity surrounding the filly had been swift all week, signaling what was to come on sale day.

“She is a very classy, legitimate filly and I was not shocked she brought a million but you don't ever expect it. But she acted the part,” explained McCrocklin. “I thought she could bring a million. But you have to be a mind reader at that point. What are they thinking. Sometimes with these more expensive horse, somebody just wants the horse. Period. So I was not surprised. But I definitely wasn't counting on it. We had a $599,000 reserve. That's where we were at.”

Explaining the decision to pursue the filly, Lanni added, “Munnings has become quite the sire. And she was just a very elegant filly, so I'm glad we got her.”

McCrocklin enjoyed a banner March sale run, highlighted by a pair of seven-figure juveniles. Tuesday's session saw a colt by Arrogate (Hip 489) bring $1.05 million, in addition to a filly by Arrogate (Hip 526) that realized $950,000. He also sold a colt by Catalina Cruiser (Hip 66) on Day 1 for $400,000. @CBossTDN

Quick Double for Wavertree

Marette Farrell and Wavertree's Ciaran Dunne | Photos by Z

The Wavertree Stables consignment had a pair of high sellers in quick succession during Wednesday's final session of the OBS March sale, as Hideyuki Mori went to $900,000 to acquire a filly by Twirling Candy (hip 600) and just a few hips later, bloodstock agent Marette Farrell went to $925,000 for a colt by Practical Joke (hip 626) on behalf of Speedway Racing. Both juveniles worked in :9 4/5.

Hip 626 is out of Louisiana Voodoo (Big Brown), a half-sister to Grade I-placed Givemeaminit (Star Guitar). Wavertree consigned the colt on behalf of Cypress Creek, which purchased him for $220,000 as a weanling at the 2021 Keeneland November sale.

“He is the first we've had for them really, so it was a bonus out of the blue,” Wavertree's Ciaran Dunne said of the colt. “The horse was started in Louisiana and came to us in December. He couldn't have trained any better than he trained. He was very simple and straightforward, a plain brown wrapper. He showed up every day and went from strength to strength to strength.”

After signing the ticket on the colt on behalf of Peter Fluor and K.C. Weiner's Speedway operation, Farrell said, “He's a really, really athletic horse with a gorgeous presence. He was very light on his feet. So we loved him on the frontside and Tescha [von Bluecher] loved him on the backside. We saw him at the barn and he used himself very well.”

Farrell hopes the colt follows in the footsteps of Speedway's champion 2-year-old colt Corniche (Quality Road).

“They are looking for a two-turn horse that could be a top-class colt who can go down the path of Corniche and continue on,” Farrell said.

Hip 600 | Photos by Z

Hip 600 is a daughter of stakes-winner Laudation (Congrats), who is out of multiple graded stakes winner Rite Moment (Vicar).

Paul Reddam and Dunne's Red Wings Enterprises pinhooking partnership purchased the filly for $265,000 at last year's Keeneland September sale.

“From day one, we thought she was very, very special,” Dunne said of the juvenile. “Thankfully we weren't the only ones. She was a beautiful yearling when we bought her, as reflected in her price. She has been a good filly all year. We had high expectations and that obviously exceeded them. If they perform on the racetrack and show up at the barn, the sky is the limit.”

Adding to a big hour for the Wavertree consignment, a filly by Into Mischief (hip 639) sold for $550,000 to agent Ben McElroy, bidding on behalf of AMO Racing. The filly had been purchased by Lehigh Bloodstock, the pinhooking partnership spearheaded by Three Diamond Farm's Kirk Wycoff, for $240,000 at Keeneland last September.

Later in Wednesday's session, Wavertree sold a filly by Omaha Beach (hip 752) to Kerri Radcliffe. The juvenile had been purchased by West Bloodstock for $300,000 at Keeneland last September.

With seven horses sold Wednesday for $3,517,000, Wavertree was the session's leading consignor and was the auction's second-leading consignor with 18 head sold for $6,147,000. @JessMartiniTDN

Colt Justifies the Wait for Childs

Bill Childs waited all week to bid on a colt by Justify (hip 806), ultimately signing for the Niall Brennan-consigned chestnut for $700,000 as the final hips came through the ring at the OBS March sale Wednesday.

“He is the only one I bought,” Childs admitted. “I've been ready to go for two days now, but we really liked him.”

Out of Rebuke (Carson City), the colt is a half-brother to graded-placed Freedom Flyer (Constitution). He was bred by A R Enterprises and RNA'd for $145,000 at last year's Keeneland January sale.

“Of course, he worked in :9 4/5,” Childs said of the colt's appeal. “We liked his family. We liked his conformation. We like everything about him. He'll be going to Bob Baffert in California.”

Childs admitted he was ready to bid higher for the youngster.

“We tried to buy him before the sale,” he said. “So we were tickled to get him for that price.”

Childs and his son Alex, both of Ft. Worth, Texas, spearhead the CSLR Racing partnership. In their first season racing, the partners campaigned the unbeaten Awesome Strong (Awesome Slew), whom they purchased for $500,000 at the Fasig-Tipton May Digital Sale last year following his six-length debut victory at Gulfstream. The colt went on to sweep the Florida Stallion series and was named FTHA 2-year-old Champion of 2022. @JessMartiniTDN

Omaha Beach Filly Brings $690K on Day 3

Kerri Radcliffe | Photos by Z

Heading the Spendthrift sire's progeny over the three-day run at OBS March, Hip 752 brought a $690,000 final bid from agent Kerri Radcliffe, signing on behalf of an undisclosed buyer. Consigned by Wavertree Stables, the daughter of MSW Pacific Heat (Unusual Heat) posted a :9 4/5 move during last week's breeze session.

“All the 2-year-old guys here in Florida have been talking about the Omaha Beaches and they really like them,” explained Radcliffe. “I saw this filly in January and absolutely loved her. She had an incredible breeze and physically, I think she is the most beautiful filly in the sale.”

Bred by a partnership of Betz Thoroughbreds, D.J. Stables, Brian Graves and Gainesway, the May 15 foal was a $300,000 purchase at Keeneland last September.

“I liked the Omaha Beaches at the yearling sales,” said Radcliffe, explaining the filly's appeal. “She is also out of a stakes mare and her stride length was impressive. She just checked all the boxes for me.”

She continued, “I purchased her for a new client. Sheila Rosenblum would also like a piece of her as well. I have to make a decision where I am going to send her, but most likely she will go to [Bob] Baffert.”

Radcliffe hopes that lightening can strike again while attempting to purchase another Grade I performer from the Wavertree consignment. Radcliffe was part of the team that unearthed Grade I-performing Nemoralia (More Than Ready) for $170,000 at this venue in 2015 and struck paydirt again when purchasing GI Starlet S. winner Dream Tree (Uncle Mo) for $750,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Florida sale in 2017. @CBossTDN

All Munnings, All the Time

Hip 598, another Munnings | Photos by Z

The Munnings effect continued later into the sale, with Hip 598, a colt by the Coolmore sire, reeling in a $685,000 final bid from OXO Equine. Handling the bidding duties ringside was agent Christina Jelm, who was on the phone with OXO's Larry Best. Consigned by Eddie Woods, who paid $165,000 for him at Keeneland September, the Apr. 13 foal breezed an eighth in :9 4/5 last week.

“He looks like a sprinter, a horse to have fun with,” said Best via phone.

The colt is out of Laquesta (Lemon Drop Kid), the dam of SW Opus Forty Two (Mendelssohn). This represents the family of GI Santa Anita Derby winner Cupid.

“A very nice horse–not overly big but a stout horse and quick. A real class act,” said Woods. “He's been very easy to be around and has been that way all year. He worked really well and galloped out great. We expected him to sell well.”

Munnings enjoyed a banner day Wednesday, with a filly by the sire (Hip 558) bringing $1-million earlier in the afternoon.

And Woods has already enjoyed success from that source, having sold Munnings' Eda for $550,000 at this venue in 2021. She went on to win the GI Starlet S. later that year.

“He's a great stallion,” affirmed Woods. “He's just gotten better and better. He was at $30,000 early and now is up to $100,000 and you can't get to him. He's a pro. He got Jack Christopher, who is the best miler in the country.”

“He was a very blue collar stallion and now he's gone white collar.” @CBossTDN

Constitution Colt to Carlisle

Bloodstock agent Lauren Carlisle, bidding on behalf of an undisclosed partnership, purchased a colt by Constitution (hip 574) for $675,000 early in Wednesday's final session of the OBS March sale. The chestnut was consigned by Sequel Bloodstock and was purchased by Sequel's Becky Thomas for $200,000 at last year's Keeneland September sale. He is out of graded-placed Jungle Tale (Lion Heart) and worked a furlong in :10 flat at last week's under-tack show.

“We loved him,” Carlisle said after signing the ticket. “He's a big, two-turn type colt. Obviously Constitution speaks for himself. He had a great breeze–one of the top breezes in my opinion, for the colts. We are very happy to get him.” @JessMartiniTDN

Constitution Colt Tops Boardshorts Activity on Day 3

Hunter Rankin | Photos by Z

Coffee mogul Travis Boersma made headlines last fall when paying a whopping $4.6 million for a share in subsequent Horse of the Year Flightline. Returning to the sales scene in the early part of 2023, Boersma's Boardshorts Racing extended to $625,000 for a son of Constitution at OBS Wednesday.

Hunter Rankin signed for Hip 612, who was consigned by Pike Racing after Al Pike purchased him for $165,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July sale. Out of Grade I placed Libby's Tail (Tiz Wonderful), the Jan. 14 foal breezed an eighth in :10 1/5 last week. A trainer for the colt has yet to be determined.

“We kind of whittled the sale down to 10 or 15 horses and just followed up and hope we get lucky,” Rankin explained. “And we got lucky a few of times.”

Later in Wednesday's session, Boardshorts landed Hip 678 for $450,000. The colt by Into Mischief is out of SW and GSP Miss Southern Miss (More Than Ready). Consigned by de Meric Sales, the Mar. 21 foal is from the family of Grade I winner Cotton Blossom.

“He was a very athletic type,” he said. “He worked great and was a really good mover. And if he is a good horse, he can be a stallion.”

Rankin also signed for a Maximus Mischief filly (Hip 456, $90,000) on Day 2 and Justify filly (Hip 732, $240,000) late in the session Wednesday.

According to Rankin, the operation is looking to expand its presence in Kentucky while maintaining a string in California.

Earlier this season, Boardshorts purchased Ancient Peace for $650,000 at Keeneland January. The daughter of War Front was sixth in her debut for trainer Graham Motion at Del Mar Dec. 3 before rebounding to score in her latest at Santa Anita Dec. 30. Since her purchase, she has been transferred to John Sadler. She posted her latest work at Santa Anita Mar. 20, going five panels in :59.60 (2/14).

“She is doing great,” he confirmed. “We're looking for an [entry level allowance] with her and she will probably run in the next couple of weeks.”

Boardshorts also purchased a Omaha Beach colt out of Daisy from the group of six horses that were re-offered for sale by Keeneland earlier this month.

“He is still in Florida at the moment but he will likely end up in Kentucky,” he said. “In the future we will try to spread horses around.”

In addition to Sadler, Boardshorts employs trainer Quin Howey, who is based at San Luis Rey and expects to add another Kentucky-based conditioner to the roster.

“We're looking to build a Kentucky presence,” he explained. “So we will have some horses in Kentucky and some in California. We're trying to build the stable with nice horses.”

Simultaneously building a broodmare band, Boardshorts secured Empire Hope for $450,000 at Keeneland in January in addition to Lake Garda (American Pharoah) for $600,000 in November. Both mares are in foal to Flightline. @CBossTDN

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‘Consignor Perspectives’ Series Recap

During the TDN's visit to Ocala last spring to scope out which first-crop sires were earning favor with the 2-year-old consignors, the response was fairly conclusive. Bolt d'Oro was a common prediction for leading freshman sire, and the consignors who believed in him before his first juveniles reached the starting gate certainly hit the nail on the head.

Interestingly, of the seven Bolt d'Oro progeny that were featured in our 'Thoughts from Ocala' video series (see here and here), five of those went on to break their maiden on debut. That group includes Agency, who spent his early days under saddle with SBM Training and Sales and went on to run second in the GIII Best Pal S., as well as King's Fortune, who was with Niall Brennan. Now owned in part by Brennan, the colt got his first win last month at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher.

So who do the consignors in Ocala believe is the standout freshman sire this year? The most-mentioned stallion among the three consignors we visited was, hands down, Omaha Beach.

True, it's not an incredibly out-of-the-box response as the Spendthrift sire does hold the top stud fee in his class at $30,000 this year, but given his illustrious pedigree and the success of his yearlings in the sales ring, consignors have every reason to be excited about the Omaha Beach juveniles.

Read on to find out what a few consignors have to say about Omaha Beach. Click on each name to watch our 'Consignor Perspectives' video feature, where we go more in-depth about this year's class of first-crop stallions.

David O'Farrell

We are really impressed with the Omaha Beach 2-year-olds so far. I think the fact that he was a dirt horse lends the possibility that he could be versatile on any surface. I think they're going to be early, but I don't think they're going to have distance limitations either. I think he has a lot of potential to be a really great sire.

Our Omaha Beach filly out of Hot Water (Medaglia d'Oro) is just really special. She seems to be a really good filly–very athletic, loves her job, moves well on the racetrack. Just everything you like to see in a young 2-year-old at this stage.

The Omaha Beach filly out of Starlit Daydream (Can The Man) is a handy filly. She has an efficient way of moving and a lot of quality about her. She shows a lot of promise.

Also mentioned: Vino Rosso (Spendthrift, $15,000)

Value first-crop sire pick: Enticed (Darley, $5,000)

David Scanlon:

I've got a couple Omaha Beach 2-year-olds that I'm really impressed with. They share a lot of the similarities of War Front in their power and their musculature, but they seem to have a little bit more size and scope to them.

We have a nice Omaha Beach going to the OBS April Sale. He's out of the mare Queen's Wood (Tiznow) and is a big, powerful colt. He's a really strong horse, but he just floats over the ground effortlessly. We're really happy with him and really excited about him as a prospect.

Also mentioned: Vino Rosso (Spendthrift, $15,000) and Mitole (Spendthrift, $15,000)

Value first-crop sire pick: Maximus Mischief (Spendthrift, $5,000)

April Mayberry:

I have one Omaha Beach colt and one filly and I like them both. I like that in a sire, when they don't lean more towards fillies or more towards colts. They are all kind of similar looking and they all are good-minded. They move nicely. They've done everything I've asked of them and look like they have some talent.

Also mentioned: Audible (WinStar, $25,000) and Catalina Cruiser (Lane's End, $15,000)

Value first-crop sire pick: World of Trouble (Hill 'n' Dale, $5,000)

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Fox Hill Farms’ Run Has Come To A Close

The red-and-white colors of Rick Porter's Fox Hill Farms will not be seen on the racetrack again. Eighteen months after Porter passed away after a long battle with cancer, the final horse still owned by Fox Hill, Royal Ship (Brz) (Midshipman), has been acquired by Porter's son, Scott, and will race under the name of Fox Hollow Farm. Siena Farm LLC has retained its minority interest in the horse.

“We could have kept him running in Fox Hill silks, but, accounting-wise, it made sense to put an end to that and keep things simple,” Scott Porter said. “He is a gelding, so it wasn't like we were going to sell him. I decided maybe I can race him and see where it leads.”

Royal Ship was the last horse owned by Fox Hill. Scott Porter has no immediate plans to expand his stable.

“It's not like I'm looking to start up a big racing stable,” he said. “At this point in my life, I'm not able to do that. Maybe someday that will change. I have the same love of racing my father had. I learned a lot from him and spent a lot of time with him. We were very close. I thought we might run this horse and see what happens. I am a builder. So I'm not making the kind of money my father did.”

Rick Porter passed away in June of 2021 at the age of 80. Fox Hill Farm campaigned 20 graded stakes horses and multiple champions led by Havre de Grace (Saint Liam), Songbird (Medaglia d'Oro), Hard Spun (Danzig), Omaha Beach (War Front) and Kodiak Kowboy (Posse). Three months after Porter's death it was announced that all of his horses but Royal Ship would be sold at the upcoming fall sales.

Trained by Richard Mandella, Royal Ship was imported from South America by Porter and finished third in the 2020 GII Del Mar Mile H. in his U.S. debut. Four starts later he upset Country Grammer in the GII Californian S. He beat Country Grammer again in the 2021 GII San Diego H. Royal Ship not started since finishing sixth in the GI Awesome Again S. in October.

“The horse has been on the farm for quite some time and he just had his first work back,” Scott Porter said “He has had a few ailments. It seems like he can put a couple of good races together and then he throws in a clunker. We'll give him as much time off as we can. If he's happy and wants to run again we will try to have some fun with him. It just made sense for me to take him over rather than trying to find a new home for him.”

According to Victoria Keith, who was Fox Hill's racing manager, Rick Porter owned about 15 horses at the time of his death. Fox Hill's last mare was sold in November, leaving only Royal Ship. She said Porter had stopped acquiring horses a few years before his death, aware that his health issues were a problem.

“Probably the hardest part was when we were selling the first horses,” she said. “Then after that we whittled the numbers down. It is certainly sad that we won't be seeing those red-and-white silks anymore. It was a really good run. I got to live vicariously through Fox Hill Farm when it was on top. Rick has a wonderful family. His wife and kids are very much like him.”

Scott Porter said that if Royal Ship has a successful 2023 he will look to reinvest some of the earnings into a new horse or two.

“We'll see,” he said. “That's the way my dad did it, starting small. But I don't have any false ambitions. I'm not trying to be Fox Hill Farms.”

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Value Sires for ’23, Part IV: First Runners Due

No getting away from it, the young stallions we assess today have already completed their service to many breeders. They've processed a debut crop of yearlings, often on an industrial scale, and many have obliged with the kind of averages that vindicate the familiar, self-fulfilling commercial cycle that so favors new sires: demand generating supply, and the quality incidental to that increased supply in turn increasing demand.

That leaves us with another tricky podium. You can't just congratulate those who have “won” on this system, topping out the first-crop yearling averages. Because the ostensible losers, the ones with disappointing yields and sliding fees and books, have an imminent opportunity to show that they can produce horses that actually run. As such we have remained loyal to a couple of longstanding favorites.

Even for those that meet the initial challenge, it can be a ruthless system. If there's anything more ridiculous than the fidelity to unproven new sires it's the impatience with which most will be promptly abandoned. It's impressive, then, to see how some farms that deal unabashedly in volume are striving to prolong that brief window of opportunity. They might do so with incentive schemes, or by using their home herds, or with the precarious (but true) sales pitch that it's perseverance now-precisely when other breeders are backing nervously away from racetrack exposure-that would yield the biggest return with those sires that do actually elevate their reputation, once people can judge their stock not on a sales dais but out of a starting gate.

Those breeders subscribing to a fourth book this spring know that the resulting foals will enter yearling catalogues at a time when their sires have had a proper chance to show their wares. The first crop will have reached maturity; the second will have had their own crack at the Triple Crown; and a third crop of juveniles will meanwhile have launched. That's why maintaining the flow is so helpful: with a “loaded pipeline,” any stallion that does land running has a chance to keep his name in lights pending the production of foals delivered by the better mares arriving to pay a rising fee.

The farm that dominated this intake-recruiting its first, second and joint-third most expensive start-ups, as well as a cheaper one with outstanding commercial appeal-did so as a striking adaptation of its success with cheaper stallions that had been promoted by various pioneering incentives. Spendthrift could make this upgrade using more conventional, fee-based math. But other hallmarks of its dynamic program remained applicable. Knowing that turnover would be high, they could pitch even these better stallions at a relatively tempting fee; and the dividends duly achieved at the sales by many clients can now be played up, if so disposed, by returning to the same stallion at a reduced fee.

The system has been working smoothly, not only for Spendthrift but for others operating on a similar scale, with several of these stallions having maintained high turnover into third books last season; and largely vindicated, meanwhile, at the yearling sales. But now, in 2023, comes the crunch. We'll begin to find out whether the huge opportunity earned by these stallions will actually be seized by the cavalry of juveniles approaching the gate.

And who knows? We often see these prolific newcomers, with their hundreds of mares, overtaken by neglected rivals once the time comes for deeds, not words.

Bubbling Under:
Measured purely by their auction reception, this intake appears to have registered some pretty strong trends already. Certain sires will be launching their first runners with some conspicuous contrasts in the levels of market confidence behind them.

The big winners, it must be said, have largely worked the numbers game: the four highest averages by debutants at the yearling sales, in fact, were all achieved by the only four stallions that sent over 100 into the ring. To a degree, however, “that horse has bolted.” The quest for value, in the longer term, requires at least some attempt to swim against the tide. Yes, the top gun on our podium happens to be the top gun at the sales-but, as we'll see shortly, we feel he retains plenty of eligibility measured strictly in terms of value.

In the meantime, AUDIBLE certainly deserves a moment of congratulation. Yes, he's one of those that have assembled a staggering harem, starting with a book of 221 and since following through with 189 and 148. But while the sheer breadth of his catalogue footprint will obviously have resulted in a wide spectrum of vendor experiences, he has responded with plenty of headlines.

After reaching $103,813 with his first weanlings, he sold as many as 111 of the 123 offered as yearlings for an average $147,072. Almost inevitably, their progress was not quite so dramatic when measured by median, up to $110,000 from $87,000. But that does mean some major scores were celebrated (topped by a $725,000 colt at Keeneland September).

What's huge for this fellow, however, is that the weanlings offered from his second crop held up exceptionally well. He sold 18 of 22 offered at $96,277 ($87,500 median) and, after a mild clip to $22,500 last year, that has helped WinStar restore his opening fee of $25,000. Anyone with a stake in Audible will be feeling justifiably excited.

MAXIMUS MISCHIEF, another son of Into Mischief, we have long highlighted as too blatant a commercial play not to succeed. He duly received all the numbers that seemed inevitable and has proved equal to that turnover at the sales, advancing his $42,777 weanling average last year to $57,019 for 77 yearlings sold of 93 offered. He takes a break from the podium only because his weanling/yearling medians were essentially stagnant ($39,000/$40,000), while his second crop of weanlings slipped to an average of $25,000 for just 13 sold of 23.

Maximus Mischief | Spendthrift

His precocious profile almost guarantees some big pinhook scores in Florida next spring, however, and conceivably enough early momentum on the track to have a role in the freshman championship. That's certainly the way his supporters must be thinking, as he has followed opening books of 198 and 171 by receiving another 195 mares in his third year at Spendthrift-a pretty stunning vote of confidence. He remains virtually a bet to nothing at $7,500.

Another standing at the same fee, FLAMEAWAY, drew some attention at the yearling sales. Though a tier below the best of his crop, he has been given the volume necessary to recycle versatility and durability of an elite European family. The son of Scat Daddy corralled no fewer than 183 mares in his debut season at Darby Dan, and processed 66 of the 85 offered as yearlings for $49,340-doubling their weanling average of $25,720-including a $425,000 colt at Saratoga. He has maintained three-figure books over the past couple of years, so has every chance of consolidation if igniting on the racetrack from these sparks of commercial promise.

BRONZE: PRESERVATIONIST (Arch-Flying Dixie by Dixieland Band)
$10,000 Airdrie

If you liked this fellow at the outset-and I loved him-then why on earth would you leave precisely at the moment he can turn the dial in his favor?

As a rule, I feel nervous of sires with a major deficit between average and median in their first market testing. But that's more of an issue, to me, with overtly commercial sires trading huge books. The fact is that a horse with Preservationist's profile was never going to start out with consistent demand across the modern marketplace. He was always going to appeal to more far-sighted breeders, who recognized a precious genetic package at an affordable price; and who reckoned him eligible to put a winner under their mare, while hoping that his excellent physique might in the meantime yield the odd score in the sales ring.

And he got plenty of those. Prices like $280,000, $260,000 and $250,000 represented home runs that could only be envied by many who felt they had made a more commercial wager. (And remember that the colt he got into the first session of the September Sale, a rare distinction for a $10,000 rookie, had to be scratched.) Overall Preservationist averaged $40,542 for 47 yearlings sold of 59 offered.

Preservationist | Sarah Andrew

Predictably enough, his books dwindled through his second and third years but he did have a three-figure team to get him started and has obviously produced some pretty striking specimens among them. His own template might suggest that there is a long road to ride first, as he was six when he won his Grade I going two turns. But actually he had plenty of speed, breaking his maiden in 1:09.35. And, besides, anyone who rowed in with him will primarily have been excited that such regal lines–putting King Ranch matriarchs Courtly Dee and Too Chic opposite each other–should have combined to produce an animal of elite appearance ($485,000 yearling when his sire was standing for $30,000) and performance.

The four mares in his dam's third generation include Natalma, Weekend Surprise and Too Chic; and the dynasty (18 graded winners under first three dams!) has been freshly decorated by the emergence of Olympiad, who is out of a half-sister to Preservationist's dam. The latter was herself sadly lost after just two foals, and it's interesting to note that the other ran 46 times and stakes-placed at eight. We know that a son of Arch with his first two dams by Dixieland Band and A.P. Indy will put a lot of “run” into the sheer class of this pedigree. If he only has a fleeting commercial opportunity, at least to start with, here's a horse equipped to draw every last ounce of merit from your mare.

It just feels very auspicious that Preservationist should have produced several yearlings with serious commercial appeal. The bottom line is that no horse in this intake would surprise me less, if happening to turn up a Kentucky Derby winner-and that's not the way he is priced.

SILVER: WORLD OF TROUBLE (Kantharos-Meets Expectations by Valid Expectations)
$5,000 Hill 'n' Dale

I know, I know. This is beyond bold. Because this horse feels aptly named right now. His third book dwindled to 27, and he's now standing at one-third of his opening fee. And there's an obvious reason why. Let's put a name to the elephant in the room: Jason Servis. This was an ex-claimer elevated to stardom by a man facing jail for a doping program.

But let's do something that sets us apart from that person, and try to show some respect to the horse. Sharp Azteca, after all, was trained by another confessed villain in Jorge Navarro-but demonstrably has the genetic merit, whatever suspicions people may have nursed, to have sired more individual winners this year than any other freshman.

World of Trouble, remember, flaunted a ton of natural ability for another trainer before joining Servis, winning by 14 lengths on debut and then beaten half a length in a stakes race, miles clear of the rest, despite bumping the rail. Whatever else may (or may not) have been assisting him later on, moreover, it takes unusual and inherent flair to switch from dirt to turf as indifferently as did World of Trouble when posting his big numbers in the GI Carter H. and GI Jaipur Inv.

So, whatever fears or suspicions people may have, this was an uncommon horse in his own right. And I just feel that he perhaps deserves a second chance after an intriguing market debut, given the reservations that will have been nursed–rightly or wrongly–by many investors.

On the face of it, an average $40,756 for 46 yearlings sold of 56 offered was no more than solid. Of this whole intake, however, no other sire achieved a median ($37,000) so close to his average. Where a lot of his peers were boosting their averages with a handful of home runs from some pretty enormous books, World of Trouble was looking after the people who had used him in a far more consistent way.

A ceiling of $170,000 might be relatively unspectacular, but even that is hugely creditable in such difficult circumstances. And, by giving his stock a platform to demonstrate whether or not they can actually run, one or two pinhookers may end up banking a major dividend from that kind of base come the 2-year-old sales.

Remember that World of Trouble was bred to be very fast. His dam is a Valid Expectations half-sister to prolific sprinter Bucchero-himself, of course, by World of Trouble's sire Kantharos.

World of Trouble | Horsephotos

Look, I don't know. But nor do any of us. I feel sorry for the horse and for any who, having acted in good faith, now find themselves facing steep odds-whether the excellent farm that stands him, or its clients. And the fact is that people obviously liked his stock well enough, perhaps almost despite themselves.

Just imagine if it turns out that everyone has been doing World of Trouble an injustice, and he proves able to throw that speed as a natural genetic inheritance? It's not impossible, and the gamble can now be tried at very small stakes.

GOLD: OMAHA BEACH (War Front-Charming by Seeking The Gold)
$30,000 Spendthrift

All they have to do now is show that they can run. Because if a stallion's career were confined only to a market launch-and that, of course, is precisely how many breeders view things-then this fellow would be quite a paragon.

It might seem pointless, to highlight the guy with the top fee and (by a street) top average of this class. But we've had him on the podium throughout, purely as a value call, and he can only ascend to the top step now that he has delivered in such spectacular fashion at the sales-even as he has taken repeated cuts in fee.

Omaha Beach has proved an ideal vehicle for this particular system: a tempting fee based on high volume; a good yield, as a result, for very many breeders (if obviously not all); in turn incentivizing repeat custom at a diminished fee; and so opening a new cycle.

We liked him even at $45,000, so how could we resist at $35,000 and then $30,000? He was still the same package, a brilliant speed-carrying grandson of Danzig from a celebrated family. And all that has happened in the meantime is that his stock has passed its first auction test with flying colors.

What we especially like is that his excellent weanling returns last year have turned out just to be a base for giddy additional gains: he advanced his $112,736 weanling average ($95,000 median) to $201,689 for 81 yearlings sold of 105 offered ($160,000 median). That's some collective “pinhook”! If these horses are impressing ever more, as they mature, then that has to augur well for the 2-year-old sales next spring-and also, naturally, for their introduction to what is supposed to be their real purpose in life.

Of course, a third consecutive book of over 200 can only work if he now delivers in that way, too. But if he does, this will potentially be the last opportunity to remain ahead of the value curve. As noted above, Audible has also done everything his supporters could have hoped, to this point. But he will cost you $25,000, just as he did at the outset, whereas Omaha Beach will now require only an extra $5,000, instead of an extra $20,000.

By no means all of us feel comfortable with the industrial model that has developed both horses, but they have shown how it can function at its most efficient. And, having started out at the higher fee, Omaha Beach will presumably have received superior mares, too: quality, in other words, to match the quantity.

This time next year, will he have produced the flagship horses to start moving his fee back up? That's the next gamble, but this horse obviously has a lot of believers. And, if you do believe, now is the time to double down.

The post Value Sires for ’23, Part IV: First Runners Due appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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