Equibase Analysis: Hagler Could Throw Knockout Punch In Jerome Stakes

Eight horses are entered in Saturday's $150,000 Jerome Stakes, which kicks off the Road to the Kentucky Derby for 2022 in New York. The rest of the series consists of the Withers Stakes on Feb. 5 and the Gotham Stakes on March 5 before culminating in the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 9.

Leading this field is a pair of recent stakes placed runners in Cooke Creek and Ohtwoohthreefive. Cooke Creek won the Rocky Run Stakes in October and was most recently second in the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes in November, while Ohtwoohthreefive missed by a nose in the Central Park Stakes on turf near the end of November and tries dirt for the first time for his seventh career start.

Mr Jefferson also enters the Jerome off a stakes try, as he was fourth of eight in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Belmont four weeks ago. Rumble Strip Ron finished second in the Best of Ohio Stakes in October which was a race restricted to horses bred in Ohio, and he enters the race off a claiming race in November so this will be a big test.

Then there are a quartet of recent winners, including Hagler, who broke his maiden in October and then bested allowance company on Dec. 16. The other recent winners, Courvoisier, Smarten Up and Unbridled Bomber, all enter the Jerome Stakes off maiden wins and will attempt to prove they belong at this level.

Top contenders:

Hagler gets a great outside post for this one-turn mile trip at Aqueduct and appears to be the type who can be on the lead or just off the pace from the start, which is an advantage in many ways. He and jockey Jorge Vargas, Jr. can wait a few strides to see if another horse wants the lead at the start, at that point taking up a stalking position, or if no other horse wants the lead Hagler can take command. The latter is exactly what he did in his most recent race on Dec. 16 at Aqueduct where he led from start to finish.

Prior to that, on Oct. 29, Hagler stayed in second for the first half-mile before drawing off to win by four and one-half lengths. Both victories came with Vargas, Jr. in the saddle, and the first of the two earned an 84 ™ Equibase Speed Figure which, if logically improved on in the colt's third start off a layoff, puts him in range of the top horse's figures in the field.

Those top figures belong to the other two main contenders: Ohtwoohthreefive (93) and Cooke Creek (89). Trainer Rudy Rodriguez has a very good 20 percent win rate when stretching a horse out in distance at Aqueduct (per Race Lens) over the last two years, with a +38 percent return on investment and a median win payoff of $13. As such, I expect Hagler to win his third race in a row and put his name squarely into the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a big effort in the Jerome Stakes.

Ohtwoohthreefive has raced exclusively on turf to date, with a record of 1-2-2 in six races. His best effort came in his most recent race on Nov. 27 in the Central Park Stakes, where he rallied to lead with an eighth of a mile to go then battled nose-and-nose down to the wire, losing by inches at the finish. Nevertheless, the 95™ figure he earned is the best by any horse in the field. Whether that type of effort is transferrable to dirt does not appear to be a question as his sire is Union Rags, himself a talented colt on dirt including a win in the 2012 Belmont Stakes. Additionally, trainer George Weaver has a creditable five-for-16 record when moving a horse from turf to dirt over the last 12 months. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche rode Ohtwoohthreefive for the first time that day and rides back in the Jerome, and if the early pace is hotly contested this colt could be the one to get up in time and win.

Cooke Creek is the only horse in the Jerome Stakes field with a stakes win, and that win came at the same mile trip as this race. He won his debut when sprinting easily in September with a 76 figure then stretched out to a mile and won the Rocky Run Stakes in October, earning an 89 figure. Trying much tougher foes in the Nashua Stakes in November, Cooke Creek was no match for winner Rockefeller when second the entire length of the stretch but he was nearly three lengths clear of the next horse, earning an 86 figure in the process. With jockey Manuel Franco riding back after getting familiar with the colt in the Nashua, Cooke Creek certainly can win this race with just slight improvement off his Rocky Run effort.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Courvoisier (85), Mr Jefferson (82), Rumble Strip Ron (77), Smarten Up (71) and Unbridled Bomber (82).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Hagler
Ohtwoohthreefive
Cooke Creek

Jerome Stakes
Race 8 at Aqueduct
Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022 – Post Time 3:50 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Year Olds
Purse: $150,000

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Sy Dog Gets First Stakes Win In Central Park At Aqueduct

The stakes action at Aqueduct Racetrack in Ozone Park, N.Y., on Saturday got off to a thrilling start as second-time starter Sy Dog came out on top over longshot Ohtwoohthreefive in a desperate finish in the $100,000 Central Park for 2-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles on the outer turf course.

Trained by Graham Motion for Head of Plains Partners, Sy Dog entered the Central Park having just one race under his belt, a promising, four-length score going seven furlongs on the turf at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y., on October 24, while Ohtwoohthreefive was one of the more experienced runners in the field having already made five starts in his young career.

Despite his lack of seasoning, Sy Dog was sent off as the very narrow 9-5 favorite over the Chad Brown-trained stakes winner General Ken, also 9-5 in the betting, who won the Awad at Belmont in his last start on November 5.

Deploying a tactic that netted him his impressive debut win, Sy Dog again found himself near the back of the pack under Luis Saez early in the Central Park as stretch-out sprinter Trust Daddy went out to lead the field with fellow Laurel Park shipper Wish Me Home keeping him company in second. The mid-Atlantic invaders ambled through reasonable splits of :24.44 for the opening quarter-mile, :49.12 for the half, and 1:13.28 for three-quarters, though both came up wanting when the field turned for home.

Under a full head of steam beneath Kendrick Carmouche, it was Ohtwoohthreefive that made the first move and blew the race wide open in upper stretch as Sy Dog remained patiently handled at the rear of the field. With a furlong to go, it looked as though Ohtwoohthreefive was home free, but the upstart Sy Dog came with a relentless rally to just get his nostril down on the wire and prevail in a photo finish.

“I was a little worried,” said Saez. “The horses on the lead kept going, but when he switched his lead he gave me that last turn of foot, so he came pretty fast and right on time. A pretty exciting race.

“I didn't really know [if I'd won], it was pretty tight,” added Saez. “It was close and the wire was right there so I wasn't sure, but in the last jump we found we got it.”

Sy Dog, bred in Kentucky by Head of Plains Partners and Madaket Stables, completed the distance in 1:43.42 and returned $5.80 on a $2 win wager. With the winner's share of the purse of $55,000, his career earnings stand at a nascent $104,500.

“You never know in the maiden races what you're up against,” said Motion. “He's made some of my other 2-year-olds look slow in the morning because he does things so easily. He's very classy.

“I think we'll get him down to Florida now,” added the trainer. “I'm not in a hurry to get him back but the Gulfstream stakes for 3-year-olds on the grass make the most sense.”

The New York-bred Maseta finished third, a length behind the runner-up and a head in front of a very unlucky General Ken. Ridden by Dylan Davis, General Ken was sitting in a pristine, stalking spot for the majority of the race, until his ground-saving journey turned out to be his undoing as he was glued to the rail in the stretch and unable to find any running room late.

Completing the order of finish were Grand Sonata, Geno, Wish Me Home, and Trust Daddy.

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Live racing resumes Sunday at the Big A with a 10-race card featuring the $150,000 Autumn Days in Race 7, the Grade 3, $200,000 Fall Highweight in Race 8 and the $100,000 Tepin in Race 9. First post is 11:50 a.m. Eastern.

America's Day at the Races will present daily coverage and analysis of the fall meet at Aqueduct Racetrack on the networks of FOX Sports. For the complete broadcast schedule, visit https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/tv-schedule.

NYRA Bets is the official wagering platform of Aqueduct Racetrack, and the best way to bet every race of the fall meet. Available to horseplayers nationwide, the NYRA Bets app is available for download today on iOS and Android at www.NYRABets.com.

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