Oaks Top 10 | Horse Racing Free Tips

The TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 For August 20

Nothing can overshadow the GI Kentucky Derby, but the GI Longines Kentucky Oaks will come as close as it gets. The showdown between the brilliant ‘TDN Rising Star‘ Gamine (Into Mischief) and the indomitable Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) could make for the most compelling race of the year. Both have been so good that it is hard to see one losing, but one must. This is the 3-year-old version of Rachel Alexandra versus Zenyatta.

With Swiss Skydiver polishing off the competition once again in last Saturday’s GI Alabama S., the last Oaks prep has been run and the field is all but set. Envoutante (Uncle Mo), Crystal Ball (Malibu Moon), Harvey’s Lil Goil (American Pharoah) and Spice Is Nice (Curlin) have all fallen off the list after being beaten a long way in the Alabama.

Meanwhile, Swiss Skydiver’s jockey assignment is not yet set. Trainer Kenny McPeek said the choice has come down to Brian Hernandez, Jr. or Tyler Gaffalione, who rode her in the Alabama. And a familiar name has reemerged. Though his filly has not started since Mar. 8, trainer Simon Callaghan reports that ‘Rising Star‘ Donna Veloce (Uncle Mo) is back in serious training and will have a work Friday at Del Mar that will determine whether she goes in the Oaks or the GII Eight Belles S.

1) GAMINE (Into Mischief—Peggy Jane, by Kafwain)
‘TDN Rising Star’ O-Michael L. Petersen. B-Grace Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $220,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $1,800,000 2yo ’19 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-0-0, $363,600.
Last Start: GI Longines Test S., SAR, Aug. 8
Accomplishments: 1st GI Longines Acorn S., BEL, June 20
Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 50.

Reasons why Gamine will beat Swiss Skydiver: she is the faster of the two horses. She ran a 110 Beyer in the GI Longines Acorn S. and a 108 in the GI Longines Test S. The best Swiss Skydiver has managed a 102, her number for the Alabama. She has brilliant early speed and can use that to her advantage. There are not a lot of other front-running types lining up for the Oaks and Gamine may well find herself loose on the lead. She cost $1.8 million at the sales, $1.765 million more than Swiss Skydiver went for. Bob Baffert is very hard to beat when he comes into these big races with talented horses. Among the Big 2, Gamine is the more unproven filly because we don’t know just yet if she will be at her best at a mile-and-an-eighth, but if she crushes the field we are definitely talking about one of the best of all time.

2) SWISS SKYDIVER (Daredevil–Expo Gold, by Johannesburg)
O-Peter J Callahan. B-WinStar Farm (KY). T-Kenneth G McPeek. Sales History: $35,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 9-5-2-1, $952,980.
Last Start: 1st GI Alabama S., SAR, Aug. 15
Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 450.

Reasons why Swiss Skydiver will beat Gamine: While distance is an unknown for Gamine, Swiss Skydiver is rock solid at nine furlongs. That’s her edge over Gamine, the distance. She cost $35,000 at the sales as compared to $1.8 million for Gamine and underdogs do have a way of coming through. Trainer Kenny McPeek, who takes a backseat to no one, is due to win an Oaks. He’s winless in nine tries, but has finished second twice. She seems to get better with every start and is coming off a career-best race in the Alabama. Since she came into her own in the March 28 GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, Swiss Skydiver has always fired. She just doesn’t have a bad day. She’s simply a very good horse.

3) SPEECH (Mr Speaker—Scribbling Sarah, by Freud)
O-Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners. B-Gail Rice (FL).
T-Michael W. McCarthy. Sales history: $65,000 ylg ’18 OBSWIN; $95,000 RNA ylg ’18 FTKJUL; $190,000 2yo ’19 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-2-4-1, $353,840.
Last Start: 1st GI Ashland S., KEE, July 11
Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 160.

Does she need both Gamine and Swiss Skydiver to have a bad day in order to win? The most likely answer is yes. After finishing behind Gamine in an allowance at Oaklawn (she was elevated to first after Gamine tested positive for lidocaine) and second behind Swiss Skydiver in the GII Santa Anita Oaks, Speech probably has to improve four or five lengths to have any chance. That’s not a knock on her but an indication of how good the Big 2 are. Doesn’t have the speed of Gamine, but can press the pace and might be put in the position of having to go against Gamine early. Will be seeking a third Kentucky Oaks win over the last three years for co-owner Sol Kumin, who won the Oaks in 2018 with Monomoy Girl (Tapizar).

4) DONNA VELOCE (Uncle Mo—Coin Broker {Ire}, by Montjeu {Ire}) ‘TDN Rising Star‘ O-Kaleem Shah, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith. B-Coin Broker Syndicate (KY). T-Simon Callaghan. Sales History: $450,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo ’19 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 4-2-2-0, $490,000.
Last Start: 1st GIII Santa Ysabel S., SA, Mar. 8.
Next Start: Possible for GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4 OR GII Eight Belles S., CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 62.

Her potential re-entry into the Oaks picture was unexpected, as she will come into the race off a layoff of nearly six months. Can she fire her best shot after so much time on the bench? She will have to do so to have any chance and maybe even to finish in the top four. A tall task, but let’s not forget what a talented filly this horse is. She finished second in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies after just one prior start, a 6 1/2-furlong maiden, and she beat Speech by 4 1/4 lengths in her lone start this year. Connections have said she may go in the seven-furlong GII Eight Belles S. over the Oaks. Her status will be determined after a work Friday.

5) BONNY SOUTH (Munnings—Touch the Star, by Tapit)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-1-0, $443,350.
Last Start: 2nd GI Alabama S., SAR, Aug. 15
Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 190.

Is second on the Kentucky Oaks points list, trailing only Swiss Skydiver. After finishing a distant fourth in the GI Ashland S., she didn’t appear to have the stuff to be a major contender in the Oaks. She didn’t come through in her biggest test to that point and was throwing in Beyer numbers in the 80s, which weren’t going to get it done in the Oaks. But it’s time to take a second look at her. She was no threat to winner Swiss Skydiver in the Alabama, but finished second ahead of some good horses in what was likely the best race of her life. It appears she liked the mile-and-a-quarter in the Alabama.

6) SHEDARESTHEDEVIL (Daredevil–Starship Warpspeed, by Congrats)
O-Flurry Racing Stables LLC, Qatar Racing Limited & Big Aut Farms. B-WinStar Farm, LLC (KY). T-Brad Cox. Sales History: $100,000 wlg ’17 KEENOV; $20,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $280,000 2yo ’19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 9-4-2-2, $501,768.
Last Start: 1st GIII Indiana Oaks, IND, July 8
Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 90.

Really no telling how good this filly is. While trainer Brad Cox threw Bonny South into two straight Grade I events, he has picked out a couple of easy spots of late for his other Oaks contender. Probably the biggest knock on her is that she lost to Swiss Skydiver by 13 1/4 lengths in the Fantasy. No matter how this turns out, it is a remarkable feat for sire Daredevil (also the sire of Swiss Skydiver) to have two fillies in the running for the Oaks. In November, Daredevil was sold to overseas interests and now stands in Turkey.

7) HOPEFUL GROWTH (Tapiture—Maiden America, by Rock Hard Ten)
O-St Elias Stable. B-Phillips Racing Partnership (KY). T-Anthony Margotta Jr. Sales History: $160,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $183,240.
Last Start: 1st GIII Monmouth Oaks, MTH, Aug. 1
Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, CD , Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 50.

Will be one of several horses in the race who go off at odds of 20-1 or higher and won’t be given much of a chance by most handicappers. The best thing that can be said for her is that she ran the race of her life when winning the GIII Monmouth Oaks in her last start. But she will be facing a much, much tougher field at Churchill and hasn’t done enough yet to suggest she is capable of beating the very best 3-year-old fillies in the country.

8) TONALIST’S SHAPE (Tonalist—Hitechnoweenie, by Harlan’s Holiday)
O-Slam Dunk Racing, Doug Branham & Legacy Ranch, Inc. B-Sabana Farm (KY). T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $45,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $60,000 RNA 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-6-0-0, $378,425.
Last Start: 4th GI CCA Oaks, SAR, July 18
Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 70.

If you go on recent form, she doesn’t have a prayer. She was beaten 11 3/4 lengths in the GI Coaching Club American Oaks, which didn’t feature a particularly tough field. For her to even come close she’s going to have to duplicate the form she showed over the winter at Gulfstream for perpetually hot trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. Even though her sire won the GI Belmont S., she shows signs of being at her best around one turn and in races at a mile or less.

9) PROJECT WHISKEY (Tapizar—Over the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Cash Is King LLC & LC Racing; B-Dark Hollow Farm (MD); T-Robert E Reid Jr. Sales History: $35,000 Ylg ’18 FTMOCT. Lifetime Record: 8-3-1-2, $302,580.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Monmouth Oaks, MTH, Aug. 1
Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 70

Like Swiss Skydiver, she cost just $35,000 at the sales, going for that price at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Eastern Fall Yearling Sale in 2018. She entered the Kentucky Oaks picture with a half-length win at 38-1 in the GIII Delaware Oaks, but couldn’t back that up when second in the Monmouth Oaks. Co-owner Chuck Zacney may have a case of Kentucky Oaks Fever, understandable after his Cathryn Sophia (Street Boss) won the race in 2016.

10) TEMPERS RISING (Bayern—Marchmont, by Mountain Cat)
O-Mark H & Nancy W Stanley; B-Dr Bryan Boone DVM (KY); T-Dallas Stewart. Sales History: $50,000 Wlg ’17 KEENOV; $70,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP; $145,000 RNA 2yo ’19 OBSMAR; $170,000 RNA 2yo ’19 FTMMAY; $150,000 RNA HIT ’20 KEEHRA. Lifetime Record: 10-1-5-2, $222,627.
Last Start: 2nd Alw/Opt. Clm., ELP, July 31
Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 47

Trainer Dallas Stewart is known for his ability to get big long shots ro run surprisingly big races in major events. He won the Oaks in 2016 with 47-1 shot Lemons Forever (Lemon Drop Kid). Can he do it again? It will be very difficult. Tempers Rising shows just a maiden win from 10 career start and was beaten last time out in an allowance race at Ellis Park. She did run second behind Bonny South in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks. Stewart will need all of his longshot magic to get this one to finish on the board.

The post The TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 For August 20 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Oaks Top 10 For July 16

It was a busy Saturday at Keeneland for the nation’s top 3-year-old fillies, as a field of five contested the GI Ashland S. and Swiss Skydiver (Daredveil) ventured outside her division as her connections boldly took on males in the GII Toyota Blue Grass S. At the end of the day, the deck was shuffled some, but not much. Speech (Mr. Speaker), already a highly regarded Oaks contender, won the Ashland and Swiss Skydiver was terrific in a second-place finish against the boys.

With the Oaks less than eight weeks away, the number of meaningful preps for the race is starting to dwindle. Most of the action will be in Saratoga, where the meet includes the GI Coaching Club American Oaks, the GI Test S. and the GI Alabama S., races that should have an impact on the Oaks picture.

1) SWISS SKYDIVER (Daredevil–Expo Gold, by Johannesburg)
O-Peter J Callahan. B-WinStar Farm (KY). T-Kenneth G McPeek. Sales History: $35,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-2-1, $677,980.
Last Start: 2nd GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 310.

We keep flip-flopping between Swiss Skydiver and Gamine for the top spot and return Swiss Skydiver to No. 1 after her second-place finish against males in the Blue Grass. Considering that she ran that well against the boys and had reeled off three straight graded stakes wins against fillies prior to that, she’s done more than enough to deserve top billing in the Oaks. She’s as solid as they come and there are no knocks against her. It’s going to take a freakishly talented filly to beat her, and Gamine may well be that good. But she’s going to have to prove it on the racetrack.

Still amazing to think that trainer Kenny McPeek found her at the sales for just $35,000. Would be fun to see her in the GI Kentucky Derby and she has enough points to get in, but McPeek and owner Peter Callahan have said she is likely to go next in Oaks.

2) GAMINE (Into Mischief—Peggy Jane, by Kafwain)
‘TDN Rising Star’ O-Michael L. Petersen. B-Grace Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $220,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $1,800,000 2yo ’19 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $234,600.
Last Start: 1st GI Longines Acorn S., BEL, June 20
Next Start: GI Longines Test S., SAR, Aug. 8
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 50.

Considering that she turned in one of the best races by a 3-year-old filly in decades when destroying the opposition in the GI Acorn S, Gamine very well could turn out to be a superstar. As good as Swiss Skydiver is, Gamine may just be better. No one knows what the ceiling is. But she definitely has more to prove, most importantly her ability to win around two turns or at a mile and an eighth. She did win her only two-turn race, beating Speech in an allowance race at Oaklawn, but wasn’t nearly as explosive or impressive that day as she was in the one-mile, one-turn Acorn. Trainer Bob Baffert has said the GI Longines Test S. at seven furlongs may be next for Gamine, which make for an unusual route to the Kentucky Oaks. Is it an indication that he believes her best distance is shorter than nine furlongs?

3) SPEECH (Mr Speaker—Scribbling Sarah, by Freud)
O-Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Michael W. McCarthy. Sales history: $65,000 ylg ’18 OBSWIN; $95,000 RNA ylg ’18 FTKJUL; $190,000 2yo ’19 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-2-4-1, $353,840.
Last Start: 1st GI Ashland S., KEE, July 11
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 160.

If ever a horse were due for a big win.

Speech came into the Ashland having finished second in four straight races. She kept running into tough customers, whether it was Swiss Skydiver in the GII Santa Anita Oaks or Gamine in the Oaklawn allowance. The betting public thought it would happen again. Speech was the 4-1 second choice in the Ashland, while Venetian Harbor was sent off at 3-5. Venetian Harbor got the trip, getting a comfortable early lead. But Speech had no problem going by her. The losses to Swiss Skydiver and Gamine suggest that she will have a tough time beating the top two in the Oaks. She might just be a good filly who came around in the wrong year.

4) VENETIAN HARBOR (Munnings—Sounds of the City, by Street Cry {Ire})
O-Ciaglia Racing LLC, Highland Yard LLC, River Oak Farm & Dominic Savides. B-Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY). T-Richard Baltas. Sales History: $110,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $205,000 RNA 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-3-0, $323,400.
Last Start: 2nd GI Ashland S., KEE, July 11
Next Start: To Be Determined
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 90.

This is a very talented filly, but probably not a Kentucky Oaks winner. The question with her all along has been how far does she want to go? After the Ashland, it’s pretty obvious that nine furlongs is a stretch for her. She made the lead easily and the pace was not fast, but she had no answer when Speech came to challenge her. The story was the same when she cleared the field in the Fantasy only to be run down by Swiss Skydiver. Her connections must now decide if they even want to try the Oaks or look for shorter races like the Test.

5) SHEDARESTHEDEVIL (Daredevil–Starship Warpspeed, by Congrats)
O-Flurry Racing Stables LLC, Qatar Racing Limited & Big Aut Farms. B-WinStar Farm, LLC (KY). T-Brad Cox. Sales History: $100,000 wlg ’17 KEENOV; $20,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $280,000 2yo ’19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 9-4-2-2, $501,768.
Last Start: 1st GIII Indiana Oaks, IND, July 8
Next Start: To Be Determined
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 90.

Rather than tackle the best of the division, trainer Brad Cox has been picking easier spots for Shedaresthedevil, a strategy that has been working. After winning an allowance at Churchill Downs by six lengths, she came back in the GIII Indiana Oaks, where she romped by five lengths. It’s gotten her back on track after she was a distant third in the GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn. She’ll need to step it up to be able to win the Oaks, but has at least proven she knows how to win. Her resume also includes a victory in the GIII Honeybee S.

6) TONALIST’S SHAPE (Tonalist—Hitechnoweenie, by Harlan’s Holiday)
O-Slam Dunk Racing, Doug Branham & Legacy Ranch, Inc. B-Sabana Farm (KY). T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $45,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $60,000 RNA 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 7-6-0-0, $357,425.
Last Start: 1st Hollywood Wildcat S., GP, May 15
Next Start: GI CCA Oaks S., SAR, July 18
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 60.

She was scratched out of the Ashland to go in the Coaching Club American Oaks. That’s a smart move by trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr., who, no doubt, figured out that the CCA Oaks was going to come up weak this year, a lot weaker than the Ashland. At six-for-seven lifetime, she has a remarkably good record. The lone defeat came in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, where she was a distant seventh to Swiss Skydiver as the 19-10 favorite. She came back to win the Hollywood Wildcat S. at Gulfstream, but didn’t face much that day. She will need to win the CCA Oaks convincingly to be considered a serious contender for the Kentucky Oaks.

7) SPICE IS NICE (Curlin—Dame Dorothy, by Bernardini)
‘TDN Rising Star’ O-Lawana L. & Robert E. Low. B-B. Flay Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $1,050,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-2-1-0, $106,080.
Last Start: 1st Alw/Opt. Clm., BEL, July 3
Next Start: GI Alabama S., SAR, Aug. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 20.

A $1.05-million yearling purchase trained by Todd Pletcher, she fell out of the top 10 after a poor showing in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She’s back after winning a July 3 allowance at Belmont, her first start in more than three months. She’ll go next in the mile-and-a-quarter Alabama. That means she’d have to come back in three weeks for the Oaks and cut back in distance. That’s not ideal, but neither is it impossible. She’s shown a lot of talent and the seven-figure price tag at the sales stands out. Should be getting better.

8) ENVOUTANTE (Uncle Mo—Enchante, by Bluegrass Cat)
O-Walking L Thoroughbreds LLC & Three Chimneys Farm; B-Jumping Jack Racing LLC (KY); T-Ken McPeek. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 6-2-1-2, $125,748.
Last Start: 3rd GI Ashland S., KEE, July 11.
Next Start: GI Alabama S., SAR, Aug. 15. Equineline PPs.
KY Oaks Points: 20

Among the reasons Kenny McPeek gave for running Swiss Skydiver in the Blue Grass was that he felt he could still win the Ashland with Envoutante. Facing proven stakes horses, it was a tall order for a filly coming of an allowance win, but she didn’t embarrass herself. She finished third, beaten 6 3/4 lengths. She’s a late-developing filly who didn’t break her maiden until April, so she has every right to improve. A good showing in the Alabama could be her ticket into the Oaks.

9) BONNY SOUTH (Munnings—Touch the Star, by Tapit)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-0, $343,350.
Last Start: 4th GI Ashland S., KEE, July 11
Next Start: To Be Determined
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 110.

Unraced since winning the GII Fair Grounds Oaks on March 21, Bonny South didn’t show much in her return in the Ashland. She never seriously threatened and finished fourth in the five-horse field. With Beyer numbers in the mid-eighties, she appeared to be slower than her main rivals at Keeneland. Has more than enough points to get into the Oaks, but she would really have to improve to win a race at that level.

10) WATER WHITE (Conveyance–Uzume, by Unbridled’s Song)
O-E V Racing Stable; B-Richard Forbush (KY); T-Rudy Rodriguez. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg ’18 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: SW, 7-2-2-1, $270,275.
Last Start: 3rd GI Acorn S., BEL, June 20
Next Start: GI Coaching Club American Oaks, SAR, July 18. Equineline PPs. Kentucky Oaks Points: 64

After you get past the top three or four, the list gets pretty thin. That’s why a horse like Water White makes it into the Top 10. Yes, she was beaten 19 1/4 lengths in the Acorn, but Gamine thrashed everybody that day. She picked up most of her Oaks points when winning the Busher Invitational in her previous start. Probably not a serious contender for the Oaks.

The post The TDN Oaks Top 10 For July 16 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for June 25

Since the last TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10, Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) won the GII Santa Anita Oaks and Gamine (Into Mischief) dominated in the GI Acorn S. Two very good fillies, they have moved to the head of the class and no one else comes close. A Swiss Skydiver-Gamine showdown in the GI Kentucky Oaks would make it one of the best races of the year.

With more than two months left before the Oaks, most in the group will have at least one more prep. The GI Ashland July 11 at Keeneland is shaping up to be one of the more important preps on the year. Saratoga will offer a trio of races that all may have an impact on the Oaks in the July 18 GI Coaching Club American Oaks, the Aug. 8 GI Test S., and the Aug. 15 GI Alabama S.

Deletions from the list since it last ran include Finite (Munnings) and Donna Veloce (Uncle Mo), neither of whom have any recent workouts and are running out of time to make the Oaks.

1) GAMINE (Into Mischief—Peggy Jane, by Kafwain)

‘TDN Rising Star’ O-Michael L. Petersen. B-Grace Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $220,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $1,800,000 2yo ’19 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $234,600.

Last Start: 1st GI Longines Acorn S., BEL, June 20

Next Start: To Be Determined

Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 50.

Heading into last weekend, it seemed inconceivable that a horse could dislodge Swiss Skydiver from the top spot. That changed in the 1:32.55 it took for Gamine to crush her foes in the Acorn. It was simply one of the best performances from a filly since, well, Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta. She got a 110 Beyer figure, 10 points higher than Tiz the Law (Constitution) ran in winning the GI Belmont S. A horse that sold for $1.8 million at last year’s Fasig-Tipton 2-Year-Old Midatlantic sale, she won her first two starts, but not in the fashion that suggested she was a superstar. Trainer Bob Baffert has yet to pick out the next race for his filly, but a start in the GI Coaching Club American Oaks July 18 makes sense. That would be a good test because the only thing Gamine has yet to prove is how she will fare against quality fillies going around two turns. Her only two-turn race was the allowance at Oaklawn and she was hard pressed to win. Looking into the fall, if Baffert really wants to get adventurous, the GI Preakness S. could be an option. Owner Michael Lund Petersen lives in Baltimore.

2) SWISS SKYDIVER (Daredevil–Expo Gold, by Johannesburg)

O-Peter J Callahan. B-WinStar Farm (KY). T-Kenneth G McPeek. Sales History: $35,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 7-4-1-1, $557,980.

Last Start: 1st GII Santa Anita Oaks, SA, June 6

Next Start: GI Ashland S., KEE, July 11

Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 310.

Swiss Skydiver is putting together the type of campaign that is hard to find these days. She wins, she doesn’t miss a dance and she ships all over the country. After his filly won the GIII Fantasy S. in May, trainer Ken McPeek could have sent her to the sidelines, but chose instead to ship her all the way to California for the GII Santa Anita Oaks. She dominated again, winning by four lengths. She’s raced seven times and has run at six tracks and won at four. In any other year, she would be the clear cut No. 1 for the Oaks. But with Gamine’s explosive performance in the Acorn she drops down to No. 2.

3) VENETIAN HARBOR (Munnings—Sounds of the City, by Street Cry {Ire})

O-Ciaglia Racing LLC, Highland Yard LLC, River Oak Farm & Dominic Savides. B-Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY). T-Richard Baltas. Sales History: $110,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $205,000 RNA 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $243,400.

Last Start: 2nd GIII Fantasy S., OP, May 1

Next Start: To Be Determined

Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 50.

It’s been a quiet seven weeks for Venetian Harbor, who hasn’t started since finishing second as the odds-on favorite in the Fantasy May 1. In hindsight, it was far from a bad race as she was beaten by Swiss Skydiver. It did, however, suggest that she may have distance limitations. Trainer Richie Baltas said either the GI Test S. Aug. 8 or the GI Ashland S. July 11 will be next. He’s moved his filly from Santa Anita to San Luis Rey Downs because he feels Venetian Harbor likes the surface there better. “I think she can go a distance,” Baltas said. “The key with her is just getting her to relax.” A lot of people jumped off her bandwagon after the Fantasy, but she’s clearly got a lot of ability and a win in the Test or Ashland would serve notice that she could very well be a major factor in the Oaks.

4) SPEECH (Mr Speaker—Scribbling Sarah, by Freud)

O-Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Michael W. McCarthy. Sales history: $65,000 ylg ’18 OBSWIN; $95,000 RNA ylg ’18 FTKJUL; $190,000 2yo ’19 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 6-1-4-1, $113,840.

Last Start: 2nd GII Santa Anita Oaks, SA, June 6

Next Start: To Be Determined

Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 60.

She’s eligible for a first-level allowance race and has lost five of her six starts. Normally, that wouldn’t be nearly a good enough record for someone to land in the No. 4 spot in an Oaks poll, but Speech is far better than her record suggests. Her problem is that she keeps running into bears. She was second behind Donna Veloce in the GIII Santa Ysabel before finishing second behind Gamine in an allowance at Oaklawn, losing by just a neck. That Gamine came back off that race and shattered the stakes record in the Acorn makes Speech look that much better. She got beat by another very good horse when second behind Swiss Skydiver in the Santa Anita Oaks. Hard to make a case that she can win an Oaks that includes Gamine and Swiss Skydiver, but she’s a good filly that has been unlucky. Trainer Michael McCarthy reports that she will run next in either the Ashland or the GIII Beaumont, a seven-furlong race at Keeneland July 10.

5) BONNY SOUTH (Munnings—Touch the Star, by Tapit)

O/B-Juddmonte Farms (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $323,350.

Last Start: 1st GII Fair Grounds Oaks, FG, Mar. 21

Next Start: GI Ashland S., KEE, July 11

Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 100.

In Bonny South and Shedaresthedevil, trainer Brad Cox has a pair of contenders. Cox has been pleased with how they are doing, but notes that what counts is how the horses will be doing come the time of the Oaks. “We’re trying to get them to peak in September, and that’s tough,” he said. “I have to maintain where they are at and keep it going through a bunch more races. That’s my job.” With Bonny South, he will also have to make sure the rust is off as she has not run since winning the GII Fair Grounds Oaks Mar. 21. Owned and bred by Juddmonte, she’s a quality filly who might have come around in the wrong year. The Ashland is next.

6) SHEDARESTHEDEVIL (Daredevil–Starship Warpspeed, by Congrats)

O-Flurry Racing Stables LLC, Qatar Racing Limited & Big Aut Farms. B-WinStar Farm, LLC (KY). T-Brad Cox. Sales History: $100,000 wlg ’17 KEENOV; $20,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $280,000 2yo ’19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW, 8-3-2-2, $385,368.

Last Start: 1st AOC, CD, June 5

Next Start: GIII Indiana Oaks, IND, July 8

Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 70.

The other top 3-year-old filly in the Cox barn, she’s been kept busy. Cox snuck her into a June 5 allowance at Churchill and she responded with a six-length win. It put her back in the mix after she finished third, beaten 13 1/4 lengths in the Fantasy. She’ll go next in the Indiana Oaks, where she will no doubt be the favorite. Like stablemate Bonny South, she’s got plenty of ability but must show more before considered one of the elite members of the division.

7) TONALIST’S SHAPE (Tonalist—Hitechnoweenie, by Harlan’s Holiday)

O-Slam Dunk Racing, Doug Branham & Legacy Ranch, Inc. B-Sabana Farm (KY). T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $45,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $60,000 RNA 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 7-6-0-0, $357,425.

Last Start: 1st Hollywood Wildcat S., GP, May 15

Next Start: GI Ashland S., KEE, July 11

Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 60.

She was easy to write off after a disappointing seventh-place showing in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. She came into the race undefeated but really struggled in what was her two-turn debut. She returned for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. in the Hollywood Wildcat S. at Gulfstream, which she won by 3 3/4 lengths. Yes, it was a much easier spot but it was also a two-turn race and she handled that fine. “She came back and won and did it the right way,” Joseph said. “To see her come back and win like she did was really important.” Joseph said the Ashland is likely next. If so, it will be a huge test for this one.

8) WATER WHITE (Conveyance–Uzume, by Unbridled’s Song)

O-E.V. Racing Stable. B-Richard Forbush (KY). T-Rudy Rodriguez. Sales History: $50,000 yrl ’18 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: SW & GISP, 7-2-2-1, $270,275.

Last Start: 3rd GI Longines Acorn S., BEL, June 20

Next Start: GI Coaching Club American Oaks, SAR, July 18

Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 64.

Once you get past the first six or seven, the prospective Oaks field starts to get thin. The third tier includes Water White. She entered the Oaks picture with a nose win in the Busher Invitational back in March at Aqueduct. She didn’t reappear until last Saturday in the Acorn. The good news is that she was third. The bad news is that she was beaten 19 1/4 lengths by Gamine. Might be better suited to easier spots. A $50,000 purchase at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Select Yearling sale.

9) PROVOCATION (Into Mischief—Meadow Breeze, by Meadowlake)

O-Speedway Stable LLC; B-Betz/D.J. Stables/CoCo/Burns/Magers (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $160,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $350,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $30,000.

Last Start: 1st MSW, SA, June 21

Next Start: To Be Determined

Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 0.

The Bob Baffert barn seems to have an endless supply of talent. Last Sunday at Santa Anita he unveiled another potential star in Provocation. The Into Mischief filly sold for $350,000 last year at the OBS April 2-Year-Old sale. Sent off at 3-5 for her debut, she led every step of the way for Mike Smith in an easy and impressive victory. The question now is whether or not she can play catch up. Breaking your maiden at 6 1/2 furlongs is one thing. Winning the Kentucky Oaks is another. Can Baffert get her there?

10) PLEASANT ORB (Orb—Pleasant Home, by Seeking the Gold)

O/B-Charles E. Fipke (KY); T-Barclay Tagg. Lifetime Record: GISP, 5-1-3-1, $111,825.

Last Start: 2nd GI Longines Acorn S., BEL, June 20

Next Start: GI Test S., SAR, Aug. 8

Equineline PPs. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20

Pleasant Orb enters the picture after finishing a well-beaten second in the Acorn. The story is her trainer, Barclay Tagg. We know he has a horse for the GI Kentucky Derby in Tiz the Law. Might he also have an Oaks horse, albeit a longshot? She has a long way to go, but Pleasant Orb seems to be getting better with every start. She was third behind Tonalist’s Shape in the Hollywood Wildcat before her Acorn performance. Hard to gauge the horses that were trounced that day by Gamine, but a second-place finish in the Acorn is enough for her to fill out our 10th spot.

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