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Equibase Analysis: Concert Tour Looks Tough To Beat In Arkansas Derby

Following an impressive 4 1/4-length win four weeks ago in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Bob Baffert trained Concert Tour leads a field of six in this Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby. This is the last race of the season to award 100 Road to the Kentucky Derby points to the winner, assuring that horse of a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate in three weeks.

Rebel Stakes runner-up Hozier, also trained by Baffert, looks to be competitive once more. Super Stock and Get Her Number finished fourth and seventh, respectively, in the Rebel and look to improve. Super Stock won the Texas Thoroughbred Futurity last summer and although no worse than fourth in four races since is still winless since then.

Get Her Number was victorious in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes last September then skipped the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and his seventh place Rebel effort was his first start in more than five months. Caddo River was sent to post as the 6 to 5 favorite in the Rebel and faded to fifth after pressing Concert Tour from the start. He won the Smarty Jones Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion prior to that. Last Samurai rounds out the field and was beaten 13 lengths when fifth in the Southwest Stakes in his only stakes try.

Leading the field by what could be a figurative, as well as literal, country mile is Concert Tour, who may have a tactical advantage in the Arkansas Derby in that he can win on the front end or from off the pace. Concert Tour won the San Vicente Stakes at the distance of seven furlongs in February in only the second start of his career, showing a lot of maturity when relaxing in third in the early stages before going by the top two pacesetters for the win. That effort earned a career-best, and field high, 106 Equibase Speed Figure. Then in the Rebel Stakes, jockey Joel Rosario took the racetrack away from favorite Caddo River because in spite of drawing the seven post in the gate, Concert Tour had the lead a few strides after the start and never looked back. The 105 figure earned could have been higher but there was no reason to ask him to run all out in the stretch after opening up by four lengths with no threats behind. Returning to Baffert's Southern California base after the Rebel, Concert Tour has continued to work strongly and could easily handle this field to bring his record to a perfect four-for-four, similar to current early Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality, who won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes one week ago to bring his record to five-for-five.

Hozier passed five horses in the last half-mile of the Rebel Stakes when rallying from seventh to second and although no match for his stablemate it was a credible effort. He earned an 89 figure one race prior that in his two-turn debut second start of his career and he improved considerably to a 99 figure in the Rebel. Hozier is certainly on a pattern to run even better while gaining the 40 Road to the Derby points for finishing second and enabling him to start in the big dance three weeks from now.

Caddo River may have to choose different tactics than were planned for the Rebel to be successful in the Arkansas Derby in order to win but that may not be out of the question. After winning both route starts wire to wire by an average of almost 10 lengths in November and January, the latter in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn with a 101 figure, Caddo River was just not fast enough to beat Concert Tour to the lead in the Rebel and took up a stalking position he had not previously used in a route race from the start. When asked to move up, Caddo River did not have anything to offer and ended up tiring to fifth of eight at the end, regressing to a 95 figure effort. Drawing inside Concert Tour in the gate once more in the Arkansas Derby, either Caddo River will be more intent on getting the lead from Concert Tour and get as brave as that one did in the Rebel¸ or perhaps this time he may show a finishing kick as he did last fall in the second start of his career, in a sprint, when rallying from third and one length back to make the lead before settling for second. In any event, it may be that even if this colt does run his best race it may not be good enough to beat either of the Baffert trainees.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Get Her Number (92), Last Samurai (84) and Super Stock (95).

Win Contenders:
Concert Tour
Hozier

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Jennifer Hoyt Promoted To Director Of Racing At Oaklawn Park

Jennifer Hoyt, who has served as Media Relations Manager for the last 10 years, has been promoted to Director of Racing. In this new role, she will work closely with Vice President of Racing Jason Milligan and will be primarily responsible for the promotion, planning and success of Oaklawn's live racing product.

“Jennifer's passion for horse racing is second to none,” Milligan said. “She has numerous contacts with horsemen and owners within the industry and I am excited for her and the future of Oaklawn.”

“I couldn't have written up a more perfect role for myself,” Hoyt said. “This really is my dream job. I'm excited to be even more involved with the racing program, while also continuing to promote Oaklawn's races to fans across the country.”

Hoyt has nearly 25 years of experience working in the Thoroughbred industry. In addition to working at Oaklawn, she has held positions at Churchill Downs, Turfway Park, Gulfstream Park, Arlington Park, and Lone Star Park. She is a longtime member of the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup notes teams and has twice been part of the Dubai World Cup notes team. Hoyt is an avid supporter of Thoroughbred Aftercare and has been working closely with the Arkansas H.B.P.A. on a new program in 2021, which she hopes to grow in her new role.

Hoyt will continue to oversee Media Relations efforts during the live meets.

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McCarthy: Oaklawn Mile Could Propel Rushie To ‘Bigger And Better Things’

Southern California-based trainer Michael McCarthy will try to pad his sparkling Oaklawn resume when Rushie makes his 4-year-old debut in Saturday's $400,000 Oaklawn Mile for older horses.

McCarthy, a former Todd Pletcher assistant, has won half of his eight career Oaklawn starts, including the $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap (G2) for older horses in 2018 with City of Light and last year's $600,000 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) for older fillies and mares with Ce Ce.

Rushie is a winner in Hot Springs, too, claiming a closing-day first-level allowance route last year when McCarthy sent a handful of promising young horses to Oaklawn late in the meeting after racing in California was shuttered (COVID-19).

Rushie went on to capture the $500,000 Pat Day Mile (G2) for 3-year-olds Sept. 5 at Churchill Downs and will be making his first start since finishing seventh in the $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) Nov. 7 at Keeneland. It was his first race against older horses.

“Had himself a nice break, 60-day break, after the Breeders' Cup,” McCarthy said Tuesday afternoon. “Horse has come to hand quickly. A spot like this for $400,000 over a racetrack we know he likes seemed to make sense and possibly propel him on to some bigger and better things here later in the year, hopefully.”

The consistent Rushie – first, second or third in 6 of 8 lifetime starts – competed against many of the country's top 3-year-olds last year, including Authentic, Swiss Skydiver, Charlatan, Honor A. P. and Art Collector.

Rushie's three victories have been at a mile or a mile and a sixteenth, but McCarthy said he believes the colt may be able to effectively handle longer distances later in 2021. The hope, McCarthy said, is in “bigger races going a little bit farther than at a mile.”

“I don't think a mile and an eighth is going to be a problem,” McCarthy said. “Hopefully in the fall of the year he's able to get a mile and a quarter. We'll cross that bridge when we get to it. Obviously, Pat Day Mile, one-turn mile, he was very good. He was good there around two turns. He's won at 3 of 4 racetracks that he's gone to, so I'm good with it. We've got plenty of options in front of us. If he stays healthy, he'll dictate where we go.”

From the first crop of Grade 1 winner Liam's Map, Rushie has earned $503,151 for owners Jim and Donna Daniell.

The projected nine-horse Oaklawn Mile field from the rail out: Long Range Toddy, Jon Court to ride, 117 pounds; Gun It, Ricardo Santana Jr., 117; Wells Bayou, Florent Geroux, 124; Rushie, Joel Rosario, 124; Blackberry Wine, David Cabrera, 121; By My Standards, Gabriel Saez, 124; Pioneer Spirit, Ramon Vazquez, 124; Home Base, Francisco Arrieta, 117; and The Sound, Martin Garcia, 121.

Long Range Toddy (first division of the 2019 Rebel at Oaklawn), Wells Bayou (2020 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds) and By My Standards (2020 Oaklawn Handicap) are also Grade 2 winners.

Probable post time for the Oaklawn Mile, which goes as the ninth of 13 races, is 4:49 p.m. (Central). Last year's Oaklawn Mile runner-up, Improbable, went on to capture three Grade 1 events and was named the country's champion older dirt male.

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Arkansas Derby: Cox Instructs Geroux To Be ‘More Aggressive’ Early With Caddo River

Brad Cox already has two horses ticketed to the Kentucky Derby in unbeaten champion Essential Quality and Mandaloun. Whether the 2020 Eclipse Award-winning trainer has a third will depend on the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) Saturday at Oaklawn.

Cox will send out Caddo River in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby, which is Oaklawn's fourth and final Kentucky Derby points race. A homebred for John Ed Anthony of Hot Springs, Caddo River got off to a rousing start on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, registering a record-breaking 10 ¼-length front-running victory in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Jan. 22 at Oaklawn in his two-turn, stakes and 3-year-old debut.

But in the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) at 1 1/16 miles March 13 – Oaklawn's third Kentucky Derby points race – Concert Tour, from post 7, beat favored Caddo River to the lead going into the first turn, controlled the pace throughout and cruised home by 4 ¼ lengths to remain unbeaten in three career starts. It was Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's record-extending eighth Rebel victory. Caddo River, keen early following a rail draw, finished fifth, beaten 6 ¾ lengths, after chasing Concert Tour on the outside to the top of the stretch.

Caddo River will try to reignite his Kentucky Derby hopes in the Arkansas Derby, a race Anthony has won a record three times (1980 with Temperence Hill, 1987 with Demons Begone and 1992 with Pine Bluff).

“Post-wise, it's very similar, I guess, to last time,” Cox said Tuesday afternoon. “We'll see how things go. We're going to try and be a little bit more involved early – more aggressive, I think, if we can. That's really the tactics we're going to take into the race. We'll see if that works any different.”

The projected six-horse Arkansas Derby field from the rail out following Tuesday's post-position draw: Super Stock, Ricardo Santana Jr. to ride, 122 pounds; Caddo River, Florent Geroux, 122; Hozier, Martin Garcia, 118; Get Her Number, Francisco Arrieta, 122; Concert Tour, Joel Rosario, 122; and Last Samurai, Jon Court, 118.

Probable post time for the Arkansas Derby, which will be televised live by NBC Sports Network, is 6:41 p.m. (Central). It goes as the 12th of 13 races. First post Saturday is 12:02 p.m., with the infield open, weather permitting.

Caddo River has had two published workouts, both against stablemates, since the Rebel. He went a half-mile in :48 March 27 and 5 furlongs in 1:00.20 last Saturday. Caddo River's workmate last month, Joe Frazier, returned to win an entry-level allowance sprint for 3-year-olds last Saturday at Keeneland. Caddo River breezed last weekend with Night Ops, a multiple stakes-winning older horse.

“Not really anything other than what we've done in the past,” Cox said. “Just maintain fitness, really, I guess would be the thing. He's a good work horse. Probably more of a free-running horse. I kind of think we found that out last time. Florent kind of took ahold of him up the backside and that didn't really seem what he (Caddo River) wanted to do.”

The Arkansas Derby will offer 170 points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10) toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby. The 1 ¼-mile race is limited to 20 starters, with starting preference given to the top 18 point earners in designated races like the Arkansas Derby. The top point earners on the European and Japan Road the Kentucky Derby will receive invitations.

Concert Tour earned 50 points for his Rebel victory and ranks No. 13 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard compiled by Churchill Downs. Stablemate and Rebel runner-up Hozier (20 points) is No. 26, Grade 1 winner Get Her Number (10) is No. 33, Caddo River (10) is No. 36 and Rebel fourth Super Stock (9) is No. 41. Get Her Number finished seventh in the Rebel.

Caddo River will need a strong showing Saturday, likely first or second, to join Essential Quality and Mandaloun in the Kentucky Derby starting gate for Cox May 1 at Churchill Downs.

“I don't think we want to run in the Derby unless we feel like we have a real shot,” said Cox, who has never had a Kentucky Derby starter. “Ultimately, that's going to be up to Mr. John Ed. On my end, I want to go into the Derby, if we're fortunate to have three horses, with three live shots, not what I feel like are two live shots right now and another horse just kind of getting in the way. I think the talent's there for him to be a Derby horse. He needs to show up and show that he can swim in the deep end of the pool on Saturday.”

Anthony, among the most successful owners in Oaklawn history, has had a resurgence in recent years. He has had six Kentucky Derby starters, the last coming in 1993 with Prairie Bayou, who finished second as the betting favorite. Anthony also had the favorite in 1987 with Demons Begone, who bled shortly after the start and didn't finish the race. Pine Bluff ran fifth in the 1992 Kentucky Derby. Both Prairie Bayou and Pine Bluff did win the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Cox won Oaklawn's second Kentucky Derby points race this year, the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 27, with Essential Quality, who earned an Eclipse Award as the country's champion 2-year-old male of 2020. Essential Quality remained unbeaten (5 for 5) in the $800,000 Blue Grass Stakes (G2) last Saturday at Keeneland. Mandaloun won the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds.

Essential Quality (140 points) and Mandaloun (52) rank No. 1 and No. 12, respectively, on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

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