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Dialed In’s Super Stock Upsets the Arkansas Derby

The GI Arkansas Derby has been won over the last 20-plus years by some short-odds favorites, like future GI Kentucky Derby winners Smarty Jones (Elusive Quality, even-money in 2004) and American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile, 1-10 in 2015) and future Classic winners such as Curlin (Smart Strike, 4-5 in 2007) and Afleet Alex (Northern Afleet, 12-5 in 2005).

But the nine-furlong prep has tossed up its fair share of less-predictable winners, including Sir Cherokee (55-1 in 2003), Line of David (Lion Heart, 17-1 in 2010), Archarcharch (Arch, 25-1 in 2011), Danza (Street Boss, 41-1 in 2014) and the notorious Valhol (Diazo, 30-1 prior to being disqualified in 1999).

The betting public had Saturday's renewal as a match race between the undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' Concert Tour (Street Sense), so impressive in winning the GII Rebel S. last time, and fellow 'Rising Star' Caddo River (Hard Spun), well-beaten in the Rebel, but prior to that, the 10 1/4-length winner of the Jan. 22 Smarty Jones S. However, the longshot bug bit again, as the far less-heralded Super Stock (Dialed In) allowed those two to duel themselves into submission and picked up the pieces late at a bit more than 12-1 to give trainer Steve Asmussen a record-tying fifth win in the race.

It was an upset bigger than the pari-mutuel prices might indicate.

As anticipated, Caddo River, whom trainer Brad Cox promised would be ridden more aggressively than he was in the Rebel, kicked through inside and matched motors under the wire for the first time with Concert Tour before Joel Rosario took just a bit of a tug and asked the Gary and Mary West colorbearer to settle, albeit right off Caddo River's flank. The pace was very much on–the opening quarter was in a sharp :22.62–and Ricardo Santana, Jr. made best use of the one hole to land in third for the run around the turn, tracking the dueling pacesetters under a long hold.

Caddo River continued to bowl along up front through a half in a fast-enough :46.51, tugging Florent Geroux out of the saddle passing the five-furlong marker, but came back to his rider and relaxed better as they raced into the final 3 1/2 furlongs. The Shortleaf runner was holding Concert Tour gamely at bay approaching the stretch, but Santana, Jr. was feeling for Super Stock and the duo began to zero in on the front-runners at the head of the stretch. It looked for a few strides that Super Stock might try to come between the two favorites, but he was instead pulled off Concert Tour's heels at the furlong grounds, raced to the front with 100 yards to race and edged clear. Caddo River fought on gamely at the rail to hold second ahead of Concert Tour.

Asmussen's son Keith broke Super Stock's maiden in the Texas Thoroughbred Futurity at Lone Star last August before stepping up steeply in class to be third in the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill Sept. 5. An even third behind undefeated champion Essential Quality (Tapit) in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland the following month, he was a battling runner-up to Saturday's GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. hero King Fury (Curlin) in the Oct. 25 Street Sense S. before calling it a season. Though never a danger to Concert Tour and his stablemate Hozier (Pioneerof the Nile) in the Rebel, it was a race he was certain to need and his even fourth-place effort set him up perfectly for his upset bid Saturday.

“[Tactically it set up] perfectly,” said Asmussen, whose father Keith is the colt's part-owner. “We wanted to use his post position. I thought he used his post position into the first turn extremely well. My confidence level was he was going to run really good. I've been in races like that, that you have no control over how good or bad somebody else runs. But I felt like that he was going to represent extremely well.”

Pedigree Notes:

Super Stock is the second Grade I winner and sixth graded for Darby Dan's Dialed In, whose son Get Her Number came with a run from last to finish a little more than three lengths behind Super Stock in fourth. He is the first Grade I winner and second graded winner produced by a daughter of Closing Argument, who famously went within a zop of causing a major upset of his own in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, going down by a half-length to Giacomo (Holy Bull) at 71-1. Barren to He's Had Enough for 2019, Super Girlie produced a colt by Mendelssohn last year.

Saturday, Oaklawn
ARKANSAS DERBY-GI, $1,000,000, Oaklawn, 4-10, 3yo, 1 1/8m, 1:50.92, ft.
1–SUPER STOCK, 122, c, 3, by Dialed In
                1st Dam: Super Girlie, by Closing Argument
                2nd Dam: Beafleet, by Afleet
                3rd Dam: Leave It Be, by Lawmaker
1ST GRADED STAKES WIN, 1ST GRADE I WIN. ($70,000 Ylg '19
KEESEP). O-Woolsey, Erv and Asmussen, Keith; B-Pedro
Gonzalez & P.J. Gonzalez (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen;
J-Ricardo Santana, Jr.. $600,000. Lifetime Record: 8-2-2-2,
$804,762. *1/2 to Boujie Girl (Flashback), GISP, $167,897.
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Werk Nick
Rating: A+++ *Triple Plus*.
2–Caddo River, 122, c, 3, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats.
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. $200,000. 'TDN Rising Star'
3–Concert Tour, 122, c, 3, Street Sense–Purse Strings, by Tapit.
O-Gary & Mary West; B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY);
T-Bob Baffert. $100,000. 'TDN Rising Star'
Margins: 2HF, HD, HF. Odds: 12.20, 3.40, 0.30.
Also Ran: Get Her Number, Last Samurai, Hozier. Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Wells Bayou Continues Comeback In Saturday’s Oaklawn Mile

As a star wide receiver during the mid-1980s at the University of Arkansas at Monticello, Lance Gasaway is aware of injuries and the lengthy down time between seasons. Wells Bayou, co-owned by Gasaway and his father, Clint, is an equine reminder of that.

A year ago, Wells Bayou was coming off a victory in the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds and headed for the Kentucky Derby. Then COVID-19 hit, the Kentucky Derby was moved to September, Wells Bayou finished a disappointing fifth in the second division of the rescheduled $500,000 Arkansas Derby (G1) in May at Oaklawn and bone bruising sidelined the Lookin At Lucky colt for the remainder of 2020.

Wells Bayou, who is trained by Brad Cox, is scheduled to make just his second start since the Arkansas Derby in the $400,000 Oaklawn Mile for older horses Saturday at Oaklawn.

“It's been a long, drawn-out year for Wells,” Lance Gasaway said Wednesday afternoon.

The speedy Wells Bayou, in his only start this year, ran third in the $125,000 Louisiana Stakes (G3) Jan. 16 at Fair Grounds. Wells Bayou was scratched from the $200,000 Mineshaft Stakes (G3) Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds because of a minor illness, Gasaway said, then missed the $500,000 Essex Handicap March 13 at Oaklawn with a foot issue.

“Just been one thing after another with him,” Gasaway said. “It's horrible. We were worried about getting him back. Brad had told me: 'He said Lance, I don't know if we're going to make it back, like in December.' He just got so big. He grew so much and put so much weight on, I think it just took longer to get him in shape. Really felt good after that Louisiana Stakes. Actually, the week before the Mineshaft, he worked a :59.80 (5 furlongs) down there and Brad said, 'Hey, he's ready.' We really thought we had a shot to beat Maxfield. Really did. He was training that well, then had to lay him off a month with all that other crap.”

Wells Bayou returned to Oaklawn last Sunday, according to Jorgito Abrego, who oversees Cox's local division. Wells Bayou made three starts last year in Hot Springs, recording a powerful first-level allowance victory in his two-turn debut before finishing second in the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) and fifth behind Nadal in the second division of the Arkansas Derby.

“To be honest with you, this race, Brad thinks this is just going to be another conditioning race,” Gasaway said. “In fact, we're still a race away from getting him back like he was. But it's a shorter race, so we decided to give it a go. Hopefully, we'll run good.”

The Gasaways, who grew up and still reside in southeast Arkansas, purchased Wells Bayou on the advice of bloodstock agent Liz Crow (BSW/Crow Bloodstock) for $105,000 at the 2019 Ocala Breeders' Sales March 2-year-old in training sale. Crow brokered a deal before the Louisiana Derby to bring in BSW/Crow clients Sol Kumin (Madaket Stables) and Marc Lore (Wonder Stables) as partners in the bay son of champion Lookin At Lucky.

Clint Gasaway named Wells Bayou after a small community about 70 miles southeast of Little Rock.

Overall, Wells Bayou has a 3-1-1 record from seven lifetime starts and earnings of $872,793. Wells Bayou (4-1 on the morning line) is among nine horses entered in the Oaklawn Mile. Probable post time for the Oaklawn Mile, the ninth of 13 races, is 4:49 p.m. (Central).

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Saturday’s Racing Insights: Bros to Champions Make Second Starts

Sponsored by Alex Nichols Agency

11th-KEE, $79K, Msw, 3yo, 7f, 6:38 p.m. ET

A pair of Pioneerof the Nile brothers to high-profile champions look to go one better off of runner-up debuts to close out the Keeneland card Saturday. John Gunther homebred Stage Raider (Pioneerof the Nile) is half to none other than Triple Crown winner Justify (Scat Daddy) as well as the ill-fated GSW The Lieutenant (Street Sense). A $950,000 Keeneland September RNA, the Chad Brown trainee was beaten 8 1/2 lengths by super impressive 'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro) going this distance at Gulfstream Jan. 23. Prevalence came back and did what he had to do to take an optional claimer next out, but he settled for sixth in last Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S.

WinStar Farm and CHC Inc.'s Harvard (Pioneerof the Nile), meanwhile, was second going a furlong shorter at Gulfstream Feb. 28, good for a field's-best last-out Beyer Speed Figure of 75. Bred by China Horse Club, the Rodolphe Brisset pupil is a full to 2016 champion juvenile and 2017 GI Arkansas Derby winner Classic Empire, who has first 2-year-olds himself this season. TJCIS PPs

4th-OP, $93K, Msw, 3yo, 6f, 2:42 p.m. ET

Bob Baffert brings in Following Sea (Runhappy) for a lucrative maiden special weight try a few races before he'll be represented by the two expected favorites in the GI Arkansas Derby. Spendthrift homebred Following Sea crossed the wire second on debut behind stablemate and subsequent GI Runhappy Santa Anita fourth Defunded (Dialed In) at Santa Anita Mar. 6, but he was moved back to third by the stewards for interference. The bay was a $230,000 in utero purchase at the 2017 Keeneland November sale. His stakes-winning dam has already produced one stakes horse and is half to SW and MGSP Qahira (Cairo Prince), who is also conditioned by Baffert.

Frank Fletcher Racing and Ten Strike Racing will be represented by Brad Cox-trained firster Amazing Rocket (Into Mischief). The $500,000 KEESEP buy is a grandson of MSW Amazing Buy (High Yield). Happymac (Runhappy) was a $360,000 KEESEP yearling who RNA'd last year at OBSAPR for $800,000 following a :20 3/5 bullet breeze. The half-brother to speedy GSW/MGISP Shancelot (Shanghai Bobby) was fourth in the Saratoga mud last August–two slots behind recent GII Toyota Blue Grass runner-up Highly Motivated (Into Mischief)–and was beaten a neck after setting the pace at Keeneland in October. He's one of two to be saddled by Steve Asmussen, along with $170,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga New York-bred Arms an Armor (Laoban).

Rising Empire (Empire Maker) earned the same Beyer Speed Figure–64–when finishing fourth on debut that Happymac did at Keeneland one day earlier. The half-brother to MGSW marathoner and 'TDN Rising Star' Rocketry (Hard Spun) was a $275,000 KEESEP yearling turned $700,000 OBSAPR grad off a :10 1/5 move. Terawatt (Nyquist) was a $200,000 KEENOV weanling, $300,000 FTSAUG yearling and $295,000 FTMMAY RNA (:10 1/5). He's a half to GSW Native Bombshell (War Front). TJCIS PPs

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Shades Of ‘Ali-Frazier’: Whitmore, C Z Rocket Up For Rematch In Count Fleet

So far, Whitmore and C Z Rocket have fought to a split decision. Round 3 is Saturday at Oaklawn when they tangle again in the $500,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) for older sprinters at 6 furlongs.

“They're two warriors,” said Peter Miller, trainer of C Z Rocket. “It's Ali-Frazier. It's going to be a battle. I think it will probably come down to who gets the trip.”

Round 1 went to Whitmore, who beat C Z Rocket by 3 ¼ lengths in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) Nov. 7 at Keeneland for co-owner/trainer Ron Moquett of Hot Springs. That outcome secured Whitmore an Eclipse Award as the country's champion male sprinter of 2020 and snapped C Z Rocket's five-race winning streak (all the victories, including two Grade 2 stakes, came after being claimed for $40,000 last April at Oaklawn).

Round 2 went to C Z Rocket, who beat Whitmore by a neck in the $200,000 Hot Springs Stakes March 13 at Oaklawn. That outcome made C Z Rocket, a 7-year-old gelding, a millionaire, denied Whitmore his record-extending fifth consecutive Hot Springs victory and from becoming the outright leader in career Oaklawn stakes victories with eight (the 8-year-old gelding shares the record with Swift Ruler). Whitmore has won the Count Fleet a record three times (2017, 2018 and 2020).

“They're very comparable horses,” Miller said. “Really super-good horses.”

Whitmore and C Z Rocket headline the Count Fleet, which has drawn a field of seven. Probable post time for the Count Fleet, which goes as the 11th of 13 races, is 6:05 p.m. (Central). First post Saturday is 12:02 p.m.

The projected lineup from the rail out: No Parole, Ramon Vazquez to ride, 118 pounds, 9-2 on the morning line; Whitmore, Ricardo Santana Jr., 123, 9-5; Mojo Man, Francisco Arrieta, 116, 8-1; Strike Power, Joel Rosario, 117, 5-1; Empire of Gold, David Cabrera, 117, 8-1; C Z Rocket, Florent Geroux, 122, 2-1; and Mr. Jagermeister, Rocco Bowen, 116, 12-1.

Whitmore and C Z Rocket were making their first starts since the Breeders' Cup Sprint in the Hot Springs. Both races were 6 furlongs. Tipping the scales, so slightly, in C Z Rocket's favor last month may have been geography. He was training in Southern California, while Whitmore's routine in Arkansas was interrupted for roughly two weeks by severe winter weather. Oaklawn lost 11 days of training (Feb. 12-22) to snow and arctic temperatures.

“We missed two works,” said Laura Moquett, who assists her husband and regularly gallops Whitmore, a career winner of almost $4.3 million. “That stunk. And he went five-wide. Had he gone on the rail and missed two works, maybe it would have been even. Had he had the two works and gone five-wide, maybe it would have been even. But doing both – missing two works and going five-wide – it's not possible.”

Whitmore has had two half-mile works since the Hot Springs. Miller has kept a small string of horses at Oaklawn, but he opted to send C Z Rocket back to Southern California following the Hot Springs. The gelding has posted two works at his home base, San Luis Rey Downs.

“We were torn,” Miller said. “Leave him there or bring him home? Just with the weather there and everything like that, we thought it was prudent to bring him back.”

C Z Rocket was flown back to Arkansas Wednesday. He and Whitmore figure to again have plenty of pace to chase Saturday with the presence of Grade 1 winner No Parole, 2020 Breeders' Cup fourth Empire of Gold, multiple stakes winner Mr. Jagermeister and Grade 3 winner Strike Power, who has the fastest 6-furlong time of the 2021 Oaklawn meet (1:08.91).

“Lots of pace,” Miller said. “There's definitely lots of pace. We're just going to leave it up to Flo.”

Let Round 3 begin.

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