HBPA Panel on Fixed Odds: Future of Wagering

HOT SPRINGS, Ark.–Dave Basler sees betting on table tennis in Asia and envisions it being replaced with horse racing in America's burgeoning sports books.

“We can fill that void a lot of times during the day so that they don't have to play table tennis from China or cricket from Australia–things that people have no idea about,” Basler, the executive director of the Ohio HBPA, said Thursday during a morning session of the National HBPA Conference at Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort. “That's not just attractive to sports books, that's attractive to horsemen and racetracks for the opportunity to increase our revenue.”

Eric Hamelback, CEO of the National Horsemen's Benevolent & Protective Association, at the 2018 conference cautioned horsemen that sports wagering was coming and the racing industry needed to be prepared. Shortly thereafter, the U.S. Supreme Court struct down the ban on sports wagering. Thirty states now have passed such legislation, including Arkansas.

Now, he says the U.S. racing industry must turn its attention to implementing fixed odds. That's a divergence from the pari-mutuel industry that currently is the linchpin of American horse racing, while sports betting is based on fixed odds that allow players to lock into a price in advance of an event.

“It's here, it's on us,” Hamelback said. “Now we need to really move and pivot and focus on how to deal with it.”

The panel also included Louisiana HBPA executive director Ed Fenasci. Sports betting began in Louisiana last fall, with an online component starting in January. Basler's home state of Ohio is scheduled to start sports wagering Jan. 1, 2023 after passing the enabling legislation in December.

“Pari-mutuel wagering is not going to be in the sports books,” Basler said. “Fixed-odds wagering will be. So we need to take advantage of that ability to bring in customers and get our product in front of millions and millions of potential new fans.”

Fenasci said sports books have the ability to be more creative than pari-mutuel wagering, including with parlay bets.

“Who knows what is going to become the popular wager, right?” he said. “Two grays will win today at the Fair Grounds. This trainer is going to win a race and this jockey will win two races. You can marry a hockey game with the fifth race at the Fair Grounds and marry that to maybe a college football game betting on LSU.

“This is the future of horse-race wagering in the United States. Not this year, five years from now. This model of sports book wagering has competed very well with other forms of gaming. The parimutuel model has been eroding over the last 30 years. It's not standing the test of time when other forms of gaming come in and capture the attention of the customer base.”

Fenasci said the apps for betting online with sports books is “the type of interaction that is going to appeal to 20- and 30-year olds…We want shelf space on these new e-commerce sites. We want horse racing to be there prominently displayed for people who may not have had the opportunity in the past to consume that product.”

Basler said fixed odds could make “an unbettable race now a bettable race.”

“There's a graded-stakes race with six horses and a 3-5 shot in there,” he said. “There's a good chance the bookmaker will take the 3-5 shot out of the pool entirely and price everybody else as if that horse weren't in the race. There are a lot of things that we don't have the ability in parimutuel pools that fixed odds can offer and perhaps enhance our product.”

Former Ladbrokes executive Richard Ames is CEO of British-based Sports Information Services and president of its U.S. subsidiary SIS Content Services Inc., both of which provide content and production services to the betting industry. He said Australian racing went from being overwhelmingly parimutuel to a decade later seeing “probably 55, 60 percent” of wagering through fixed odds.

“We know consumers like the idea if they place a bet at 6-1, that's what they're going to get,” he said.

Panel moderator Michele Fischer, an industry consultant who spent years working for the tote-betting company Sportech Racing and now serves as vice president of SIS' American operation, said some horsemen are surprised to hear that U.S. races already are being distributed in overseas sports books. While the Stronach Group-owned GWS is the largest exporter of U.S. content, she said SIS is the world's largest horse-racing content distributor in the world. It is fairly new to the American market, however.

SIS currently distributes on a 24-hour cycle more than 30,000 horse races and 38,000 greyhound races a year at 118 tracks in 16 countries.

“The sports book wants to have a volume of content,” Ames said. “They want to have access to thousands of races.”

He said there are different models on how racetracks and horsemen are compensated for having their races in sports books, including a fixed fee, revenue-sharing or getting a percentage of betting proceeds.

“Why should we consider this?” Fischer asked rhetorically. “Horse racing had a fabulous year in terms of handle in 2021, the highest it had been since 2009. In some states, we have a false comfort. Purses are very high–you look at Kentucky with HHR (historical horse racing) booming there. It's doing well in Virginia. But when you look at the big picture across the United States, the simple answer is horse racing is not self-sufficient. We're using alternative gaming to support our purses.

“This is an opportunity to become more self-sufficient, because we're betting on horse racing–not betting on a VLT machine or HHR machine.”

   Rees is a horse-racing communications specialist in the horse-racing industry, including working for the National and Kentucky HBPA.

 

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Maracuja To Miss Azeri

Trainer Rob Atras reports that GI CCA Oaks upsetter Maracuja (Honor Code) is training nicely at Oaklawn Park, but will miss an intended engagement in next Saturday's GII Azeri S. and will likely be trained up to an appearance against the likes of Eclipse Award winner Letruska (Super Saver) in the GI Apple Blossom H. Apr. 23.

“She's doing really well but we had setbacks with how the weather has gone and we're not anticipating making the Azeri,” Atras told the New York Racing Association notes team. “We've played it safe down there with her. Usually by early February the weather starts to level out but they had a couple storms come through that hindered our progress.”

Atras was not completely ruling out a prep race in the interim.

“If we can get a race in and it works that's definitely a possibility. Right now, we're just focused on getting her ready,” he said.

A midpack seventh behind 'TDN Rising Star' Malathaat (Curlin) in last year's GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, The $200,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga grad turned the tables in the CCA Oaks, scoring by a head at better than 14-1. Well-beaten by the Kentucky Oaks winner in the GI Alabama S. in August, Maracuja was last seen finishing fourth in the GI Cotillion S. at Parx Sept. 25.

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Oaklawn Increases Purses

Oaklawn will offer across-the-board purse increases beginning  Mar. 11. Claiming and starter allowance races will receive a $4,000 bump, with maiden special weights and allowances up by $6,000.

“The first half of the racing season has gone extremely well, and we could not be happier to be sharing that success with our horsemen,” Oaklawn President Louis Cella said. “We are particularly proud of the quality of the horses we are seeing on a daily basis, and we are very excited for the great racing to close out our season.”

The minimum purse is now set at $29,000 with maiden special weights at $90,000 and allowances at $106,000.

With the past three weeks having seen an increase in both on and off track wagering, Oaklawn has added an additional day to its schedule on Apr. 7. The live meet will run through May 8.

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Taking Stock: Deceased Arrogate and Laoban Strike at Oaklawn

Neither Arrogate, by Unbridled's Song, nor Laoban, a son of Uncle Mo, is still with us, but a first-crop daughter of the former and a second-crop son of the latter won graded Classic preps at Oaklawn over the weekend, underscoring the sire potential each had. Arrogate was seven when he was euthanized in 2020 and Laoban was eight when he was put down almost a year later.

Arrogate's Secret Oath won the Glll Honeybee S. Saturday by 7 1/2 lengths for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, and she has the look of a special filly. She showed explosive acceleration when asked and covered 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.74, earning a 92 Beyer figure and 50 qualifying points for the Gl Kentucky Oaks. She's now a winner of four of six starts, the last three in a row, and it's possible she may take on colts next in the Gl Arkansas Derby to earn points for the Gl Kentucky Derby. Lukas has trained a slew of top-class fillies during his decorated career and hasn't been shy to take on colts with the best of them. He won the Arkansas Derby in 1984 with Althea, a filly, and he also trained Winning Colors, who won the Kentucky Derby in 1988 after beating colts in the Gl Santa Anita Derby.

Secret Oath won the Honeybee in the manner of the odds-on favorite she was, returning $2.60. In contrast, Laoban's Un Ojo, a one-eyed New York-bred gelding, was all out to win the Gll Rebel S. by a half-length at 75-1 from the Lukas-trained Ethereal Road (Quality Road), a 16-1 shot, triggering some massive payouts. Saddled by Ricky Courville, Un Ojo covered 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.69, a slower time than Secret Oath registered in the Honeybee, and he earned an 84 Beyer for his second win in six starts. Nevertheless, Un Ojo picked up 50 qualifying points for the Churchill Classic and earned $600,000 from the $1-million Rebel purse, while Lukas's runner-up took home a check of $200,000 and 25 qualifying points.

In contrast, Secret Oath earned $180,000 for winning the Honeybee and zilch Derby points, which is amusing because she'd likely have won the Rebel based on her Beyer and final time. And Lukas was probably aware beforehand that his filly was better than stablemate Ethereal Road at this point in time, which is another case to make for her testing colts in the Arkansas Derby.

Secret Oath

Secret Oath is one of two black-type winners for her sire, who was a late-developing colt at his best at 1 1/4 miles. Trained by Bob Baffert, Arrogate won seven of 11 starts, earned a North American record of $17.4 million, and is remembered for a remarkable four-race win streak that encompassed the Gl Travers S., Gl Breeders' Cup Classic, Gl Pegasus World Cup Invitational, and the G1 Dubai World Cup. Despite not winning his first stakes race until the Travers in late August of his sophomore season, he won an Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old colt.

Arrogate entered stud at his owner's Juddmonte in 2018 for a $75,000 fee–highest of all new recruits in North America, with Gun Runner next at $70,000–and was considered Unbridled's Song's last and best hope for getting a top-level stallion son. So far, Secret Oath aside, Arrogate hasn't met expectations, but it's early yet for the type of horse he was, and he'll have three crops to prove his worth, with the Lukas filly leading the way at the moment.

Another young Unbridled's Song son, Lane's End's Liam's Map has exceeded expectations and has quickly become a high-level stallion with four Grade l winners so far, and at this point it looks like he may end up as his sire's best son at stud. It's instructive here to compare his pedigree to those of both Arrogate and Secret Oath.

First, both Arrogate and Liam's Map are bred on a similar cross, as each is from a Forty Niner-line mare.

Second, Liam's Map and Secret Oath share some notable ancestors in their respective backgrounds. I wrote about Liam's Map's pedigree here last October–“Flying Unbridled's Song Flag”–but the short takeaway linking the two is this: both have a lot of Tartan's Aspidistra, the dam of champions Dr. Fager and Ta Wee, in their genetic makeup.

Note that Unbridled, the sire of Unbridled's Song, was 4×4 to Aspidistra–his fourth dam. Liam's Map's second dam Yada Yada was closely inbred 2×3 to Ta Wee, giving Liam's Map four repetitions of Aspidistra, his sixth dam, 6x6x5x6. The other cross to the Tartan foundation mare comes through Great Above, a son of Ta Wee.

Secret Oath, like Liam's Map, also gets Aspidistra twice through Unbridled. But she also gets another two doses through her broodmare sire Quiet American, who was 3×2 to Dr. Fager, and one through Great Above, just like Liam's Map. She is, therefore, 7x7x6x5x5 to Aspidistra, for a total of five crosses.

In fact, the imprimatur of John Nerud and Tartan is all over the pedigree of Secret Oath. Another great foundation mare for Nerud/Tartan was Cequillo, the third dam of Fappiano and his son Quiet American. Because Secret Oath is inbred 4×3 to Fappiano and is from a Quiet American mare, she has Cequillo 7x6x5.

Secret Oath is owned by Briland Farm and was bred by Briland in partnership with Robert Mitchell and Stacy Mitchell. Secret Oath's dam, the Quiet American mare Absinthe Minded, also bred by the same connections and raced by Briland with Lukas, was a multiple Grade l-placed stakes winner of $607,747, but there isn't much black type in the pedigree under the next few dams. The third and fourth dams, Rockford Peach, by Great Above; and Strawberry Skyline, by Hatchet Man, respectively, were bred in New York by Michael Mulholland.

Un Ojo

Un Ojo was bred in New York by Southern Equine Stables and is raced by Cypress Creek Equine. In partnership, Southern Equine raced Laoban, whose only win from nine starts came in the Gll Jim Dandy S. at Saratoga. The son of Uncle Mo retired to Sequel Stallions in New York with earnings of $526,250 and initially stood for $7,500, but he was a hit with his first 2-year-olds–ending up second on the 2020 first-crop list behind Uncle Mo's Nyquist–and was moved to WinStar in Kentucky for the 2021 season at a $25,000 fee.

Along with Nyquist and Outwork, Laoban was part of a trio of Uncle Mo freshmen to make an immediate impact in 2020. He's the sire of 10 black-type winners, with his first crop containing Grade l winner Simply Ravishing and Grade ll winner and multiple Grade l-placed Keepmeinmind, a surefire sign that Laoban was moving his mares way up.

Un Ojo is a well-bred gelding compared to some others by his sire, who covered mares for $5,000 in his last season in New York. Un Ojo's dam is the A.P. Indy mare Risk a Chance, a New York-bred stakes-placed winner for owner/breeders Chester and Mary Broman. Risk a Chance was out of the Broman-bred Seeking the Gold mare Seeking the Ante, a Grade ll winner of almost $400,000, who in turn was produced by multiple Grade l winner Antespend, an Elmendorf-bred daughter of Spend a Buck raced by the Bromans late in her career after Elmendorf's Jack Kent Cooke passed away. Antespend also produced the Bromans' homebred Gl Florida Derby winner Friends Lake.

The Bromans bred Risk a Chance's first three living foals (she was not pregnant in 2016 and aborted in 2017) without stakes success. Her first foal by Desert Party was unplaced, the second, by Freud, was a winner who earned almost $120,000 racing exclusively at Finger Lakes, and her third was a Quality Road colt, now four, who is unraced after bringing $550,000 as a yearling at Saratoga. They sold Risk a Chance in foal to Laoban for $40,000 at the Fasig-Tipton New York Saratoga Fall Mixed sale in 2018, and Southern Equine was the lucky buyer.

That fortuitous purchase made Southern Equine the breeder of Un Ojo, who now has a ticket to the Kentucky Derby.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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