As if ranking the contenders for the GI Kentucky Derby isn't enough of a challenge in and of itself, the crystal ball-gazing becomes even more hazy when you factor in the ban imposed by Churchill Downs, Inc., on trainees from Bob Baffert's stable (click here for a more detailed writeup on this subject).
Even though the official Derby qualifying points leaderboard omits those horses, TDN's Top 12 will continue to include them for the time being on the basis that 1) the situation could change; 2) the performances of those horses represent significant benchmarks in establishing the pecking order for everyone else, and 3) there is no point at this still-early stage of the Triple Crown campaign to dismiss the accomplishments of the nation's top colts, regardless of whether they end up in the Derby or not.
1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $216,600. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Robert F. Lewis S.
Undefeated kingpin Nysos (Nyquist) extended the already sizable gap back to his next closest competitors with a thorough and professional clock-cleaning of six overmatched rivals in Saturday's GIII Robert Lewis S. at Santa Anita. The effort stood out because it was delivered in a scintillating style that underscored both the colt's level of self-assurance and his athletic prowess.
This 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' from trainer Bob Baffert's barn has now scored at six, seven and eight furlongs, winning by a combined 26 3/4 lengths while earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 97 at age two prior to uncorking a wowza 105 for his sophomore debut.
The light-on-his-feet Nysos ($130,000 KEENOV, $150,000 FTKOCT, $550,000 OBSAPR) glided under the wire by 7 ½ lengths. Flavien Prat could have nudged that margin into double digits had he not begun the gearing-down process more than a sixteenth of a mile before the finish.
After breaking a beat slowly then opting not to go into chase mode to reel in a breakaway pacemaker, Prat's only taxing tactical decision came on the far turn when he opted to slice Nysos to the inside of one rival then come around the other tiring two. A hustling hand ride between the five-sixteenths and eighth poles was all it took to elicit the desired gear without Nysos needing to demonstrate how much torque might remain in reserve.
“He stumbled a bit leaving there, but he was in a good spot,” Baffert said. “Prat rode him with a lot of confidence, he knows the horse well. I love the fact that he has speed and he proved he can do two turns. He has a great mind. He is a really good colt. You can just sit there and push the button at any time. It makes it so much easier for the riders, but I still get a little nervous.”
2) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.
With three wins and two seconds from five lifetime races and a classy, all-business style, Muth ($190,000 KEESEP and $2 million OBSMAR) is in the top tier among the Bob Baffert's per-usual loaded stable of sophomores.
Oddly enough, this son of Good Magic's best race Beyer-wise (a 95 in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile) was his least visually impressive performance. Even with a Santa Anita home-track advantage and a no-excuse stalking trip, this 'TDN Rising Star' had to be driven hard in an unsuccessful attempt to match strides in upper stretch with eventual divisional champ Fierceness.
But Muth's co-lowest career Beyer of 90 in the Jan. 6 GIII San Vicente S. is the opposite, with the effort seeming better to the eye than the speed figure it earned.
The San Vicente could turn out to be an extremely useful seven-furlong speed sharpener for Muth, who shadowed two early leaders before running up the score at will while ridden out under the wire.
That effort whets the appetite for another two-turn engagement. But since Baffert's style is generally not to disclose stakes engagements until at or just before entry time, we're left to guess-although we do know that preps at Santa Anita and Oaklawn have historically been his most-preferred options.
Prior to running second in the Breeders' Cup, Muth was already a winner over 1 1/16 miles against Grade I company. He scored in the Oct. 7 American Pharoah S. by forcing the issue from fourth, then tipping out to accost the leaders off the turn without needing much encouragement to wrest control of the race.
3) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $96,750. Last start: 2nd Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.
'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) is targeting the GII Risen Star S. for his 2023 debut. That nine-furlong New Orleans race will be the first of two projected Derby preps at age three for trainer Chad Brown, which would give this colt three straight 1 1/8 mile races prior to attempting 10 furlongs in Louisville
This FTSAUG $2.3 million sales topper looked like the winner in the closing stages of the Dec. 2 GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct when he rallied seven wide against the teeth of a sealed-track speed bias. But Sierra Leone lugged in late and lost the lead to Dornoch (Good Magic), who prevailed by a nose.
That two-turn try was Sierra Leone's only other race after winning his one-turn-mile debut Nov. 4 at Aqueduct. After a slight bobble at the break, this colt settled next to last, overcame several minor momentum stalls on the backstretch and turn, swung five wide off the bend, then started to rally with authority. Despite twice shifting off the heels of rival runners, Sierra Leone was motoring late once he got straightened out.
The on-paper strength of that maiden win has been validated by short-priced, next-out wins by the second- and fourth-place finishers: Runner-up Change of Command is currently parked at No. 9 on the TDN Top 12 list after winning two subsequent starts at Gulfstream, while Tuscan Gold (Medaglia d'Oro) was named a fellow 'Rising Star' after a 6 1/4-length maiden romp at Gulfstream Jan. 31.
4) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-3-1-1, $285,000. Last start: WON Jan. 20 GIII Lecomte S.
Track Phantom will celebrate his Feb. 17 birthday by riding a three-race win streak into the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds for trainer Steve Asmussen.
This $500,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road is on a path that could end up shadowing the career arc of another Asmussen trainee, Epicenter, who displayed a similar speed-centric style in 2021-22 while winning three of four stakes (barely losing the fourth by a head) on the New Orleans prep path.
On the strength of his GII Louisiana Derby victory, Epicenter ended up starting favored in the Kentucky Derby, where he had the race won in the shadow of the wire before 80-1 shocker Rich Strike blew by from out of nowhere in the final few jumps. Epicenter later won the 10-furlong GI Travers S. and was crowned champion 3-year-old colt.
Like Track Phantom seems to be doing now, Epicenter didn't wow anyone early on with flash and panache. But by the first Saturday in May, Epicenter had earned respect for his steady, reliable way of always showing up.
Track Phantom owns a Beyer progression 74, 81, 88, 89 and 90 in five starts, all at a mile or longer, and in his trio of two-turn scores he's showed a knack for deploying gate speed without being fazed by rail-running rivals trying to disrupt his rhythm with keyed-up tactics.
This colt's 2 3/4-length wiring in the GIII Lecomte S. might seem like an artifact of a tepid tempo. But the visual at the quarter pole of Track Phantom easily opening up while an all-out favorite was under futile urging and not making up ground behind him speaks strongly in support of Track Phantom's ability to settle into a comfortable cadence, then fend off anyone who makes a serious run at him.
Fierceness | Benoit
5) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 4-2-0-1, $1,127,250. Last start: 3rd Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S.
You can pick among a variety of excuses for Fierceness's failed-to-fire third in the GIII Holy Bull S., and some of them might even be valid: His break from the gate wasn't ideal. He had to be used harder than expected while losing ground on the first turn just to stay in touch with a very slow pace. He wasn't fully cranked for the effort off a three-month layoff.
The bottom line, though, is that this 'TDN Rising Star' by City of Light is the 2-year-old champ, and based on the way the Holy Bull came up on paper, the betting public had hammered him to 1-5 odds because he was supposed to throttle competition of this caliber, even if he was having an “off” day.
(As a public-service announcement for horseplayers who might want to save money next year–or next month, the two 1 1/16-miles graded stakes at Gulfstream are among the biggest money-burning races for favorites on the entire Derby prep calendar. Holy Bull faves have now gone down in flames in seven of the last eight runnings, and the fave in the GII Fountain of Youth S. has lost 12 of the last 17 editions.)
But back to Fierceness: This is not a “toss the baby out with the bathwater” type of disappointment that gets this colt voted off the Top 12 island. The Repole Stable homebred reportedly exited Saturday's race none the worse for wear, according to trainer Todd Pletcher. Based on the rip-roaring display of power Fierceness unleashed in the Breeders' Cup last November, it's conceivable that he rebounds in his one remaining prep (yet to be determined) and coasts into Louisville as a formidable force.
It's still early enough in the Derby season to be forgiving. But that will get more difficult as the prep-race cadence quickens and the plot thickens.
6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $257,400. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.
Because Dornoch is the full brother to last year's Derby winner, Mage, this son of Good Magic is destined to be saddled with outsized, and perhaps unfair, expectations.
But if Dornoch's focus ever manages to catch up with his large, brawny frame, this colt is going to be a legitimate Triple Crown threat.
This $325,000 KEESEP trainee for Danny Gargan kicked off his career with a pair of runner-up efforts before wiring a 1 1/16-mile maiden field Oct. 14 at Keeneland by 6 1/2 lengths.
Tasked with nine-furlongs and a sealed, muddy surface at Aqueduct in the Remsen S., Dornoch outgunned five rivals for the lead, took pressure from a 27-1 shot, swatted back bids from fresh challengers on the far bend, then brushed the rail and re-surged to steal the lead late from No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone.
The Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream will be next, and Dornoch is two breezes back into his training routine at Palm Meadows for that Mar. 2 stakes.
7) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $39,000. Last start: WON Jan. 20 Santa Anita MSW.
Maymun ($50,000 KEESEP, $900,000 OBSAPR) split horses early, shot straight to the lead, and set a spirited pace under pressure before shrugging off three wilting rivals at the quarter pole and cantering home by 7 1/2 easy lengths in his Jan. 20 unveiling over 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita (93 Beyer).
This son of Frosted out of an Indian Charlie mare earned 'TDN Rising Star' status for the effort.
He was no secret to the betting public, as evidenced by 9-10 favoritism. Maymun had been on the radar of many who had pegged him as a horse of interest after seeing him breeze a furlong in :9 3/5 prior to the Ocala auction.
“He was ridiculously fast,” trainer Bob Baffert had said of the colt shortly after the sale.
“This was one of the best horses in the sale, I thought,” bloodstock agent Donato Lanni said last spring. “He deserved to bring that kind of money.”
8) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution—Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $237,350. Last start: WON Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S.
Add Catching Freedom to the list of Top 12 colts aiming for the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox envisions that Feb. 17 start as a springboard to the Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby as the final Kentucky Derby prep for this son of Constitution.
Cox has won the Arkansas Derby in each of the last two seasons, with Cyberknife and Angel of Empire.
After breaking his maiden in a one-turn mile and running a decent fourth in a 1 1/16-mile allowance (both at Churchill), this $575,000 KEESEP colt rode the rail near the back in the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn before unwinding with a long, grind-down rally. Catching Freedom finished up with head cocked out to the grandstand, and it took him a while to swap leads in the lane, but those aren't major concerns at this still-early point in his development.
Catching Freedom's form got a boost over the weekend when the fifth- and second-place finishers out of the Smarty Jones came back to run one-two in the GIII Southwest S.
9) CHANGE OF COMMAND (c, Into Mischief–Moi, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales history: $570,000 Wlg '21 FTKNOV; $1,050,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $113,300. Last start: WON Jan. 5 Gulfstream AOC.
Change of Command is expected to be entered Wednesday in the GIII Sam Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs. He'll be well regarded in the betting, but be aware that the Davis is another Florida winter prep stakes with a reputation for being a black hole for favorites. They've lost five of the last six runnings.
This Shug McGuaghey-trained son of Into Mischief ($570,000 FTKNOV, $1.05 million KEESEP) debuted in the slop at Saratoga when fourth over six furlongs behind eventual 2-year-old champ Fierceness (a race that produced three next-out winners).
Then he led to mid-stretch, got passed by a flying 4-to-5 fave, and was necked for the place spot over the same distance Oct. 1 at Aqueduct.
In start number three at the Big A Nov. 4, this colt shot straight to the lead over a one-turn mile only to be reeled in by the No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone.
Coming off that second-place try, he tried seven furlongs at Gulfstream Dec. 17. Change of Command broke alertly, conceded the lead while stalking inside, edged up from third to second a half-mile out, then cut to the two path to go after the leader. Clearly in front by the five-sixteenths pole, Change of Command opened up under light encouragement to win by 6 1/2 lengths (77 Beyer).
Change of Command followed that up with an 83-Beyer allowance score Jan. 5 over 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream, capitalizing on a trouble-free stalking trip to wear down a pesky pacesetter.
Conquest Warrior | Lauren King
10) CONQUEST WARRIOR (c, City of Light–Tea Time, by Pulpit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,000,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $52,200. Last start: WON Jan. 13 Gulfstream MSW.
The massive-framed Conquest Warrior (City of Light) got sandwiched at the break, shuffled to last, then repeatedly ran into traffic while trying to uncoil in his maiden win in a Gulfstream one-turn mile Jan. 13.
Although his 84 Beyer for the first-time-Lasix effort didn't exactly leap off the charts, the victory was notable more for the “how he did it” factor rather than “how fast.” Its visual impression alone was worthy of 'TDN Rising Star' honors.
“I was surprised he broke the way he did,” McGuaghey said of the $1 million KEESEP colt. “I knew he'd be back and then finish. I was surprised by the effort he put in today with the trip he had for a young horse.”
McGuaghey's next-race preference for maiden-breaking 3-year-olds at this stage of the season is generally an allowance race at either Gulfstream or Tampa rather than a stakes.
11) MYSTIK DAN (c, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) O/B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Southwest S.
Mystik Dan's 11-1 splashdown win by eight lengths in the Southwest S. represented a tactical turnaround that trainer Kenny McPeek had been trying to bring about via morning training after four previous starts in which this Goldencents colt had raced on or near the lead.
“He needed to learn how to rate,” McPeek said. “He needed to learn how to settle off horses and maintain that late punch, and we've been doing that in the morning every day.”
But considering the muddy, sealed track conditions at Oaklawn, it was a dicey gamble for jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. to intentionally take back and tuck in after Mystik Dan had broken alertly and attained good early position into the first turn.
“I was fortunate enough, my horse left there quick enough, but not overly quick, to where I was able to get behind the leaders and make my way over to the fence,” Hernandez said. “We were able to save ground on both turns. When we got to the second turn, I called on him and he picked it up. I was able to kind of just wait for a spot. When a seam opened up barely on the inside, he shot through there and did the rest for us.”
It helped that the two pacemaking favorites had already capitulated and that Mystik Dan only had to reel in the stretch leader with no other foes firing from the back of the pack.
But even though the pace setup was ideal, this homebred for Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby, and 4G Racing finished up under his own power with a final sixteenth timed in 5.93 seconds, an eye-catching fractional clocking considering Hernandez had dialed him down late.
The Beyer came back as 101, which is 19 points higher than Mystik Dan's last effort, but within range of the 96 this colt earned when sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs Nov. 12 at Churchill.
12) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $475,600. Last start: 4th Nov. 3 GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.
Timberlake (Into Mischief) got crowned a 'TDN Rising Star' in start number two on July 21, a nine-length blowout over seven furlongs at Ellis Park that yielded three next-out winners.
His beaten-favorite try in the GI Hopeful S. at Saratoga was hallmarked by a horror trip in which this Brad Cox trainee broke to the back, rushed up, then was continually boxed and blocked before bulling through to seize the lead at the eighth pole, only to get collared by a 54-1 shot in the final stages.
Bettors let him drift up to 4.9-1 odds in the GI Champagne S., and although the narrative of that race has unfairly evolved as Timberlake winning because odds-on Fierceness threw in a clunker, Timberlake was no slouch on his own merits. He edged up into a fast pace, swung eight wide for the drive, then put away a pesky foe at the eighth pole over a sloppy, sealed track.
Timberlake's trip to California for the Breeders' Cup was not a memorable one. He resisted efforts to settle on the first turn, then had no true response when urged for run on the second bend. He managed a no-factor fourth and has been freshened since.
Cox said last week the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn is a possible target for the Fair Grounds-based Timberlake.
“He's pointing for it,” Cox said. “We've got to see how our works go over the next several weeks, but he's doing well. The other race in play for him would probably be the [one-mile Mar. 2 GIII] Gotham [S.] at Aqueduct,” Cox said. “He did win up in New York.”
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