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Nyquist’s Vequist Upsets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

Gary Barber, Wachtel Stable and Swilcan Stables’s Vequist (Nyquist) put an exclamation point on a very strong freshman season for her sire (by Uncle Mo)–a winner of the track-and-trip GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2015–while posting a mild 6-1 upset in Friday’s GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The market’s fifth choice behind the unbeaten foursome of ‘TDN Rising Star‘ Princess Noor (Not This Time), GI Frizette S. victoress Dayoutoftheoffice (Into Mischief), local GI Darley Alcibiades S. heroine Simply Ravishing (Laoban) and ‘Rising Star‘ Girl Daddy (Uncle Mo) broke alertly and hugged the rail into the first bend tucked in behind Dayoutoftheoffice. Princess Noor sat second off the fence as Simply Ravishing–on the lead last time–broke a half-step slowly before taking up a midpack spot. The frontrunner cruised along through splits of :23.30 and :47.12 as Joel Rosario sat patiently on Vequist, who was shuffled back to fourth through six panels in 1:11.32. Princess Noor was the first to come under a ride heading for home, and while Dayoutoftheoffice seemed to still be going strong, she turned for home a bit wide and left the rail open. Vequist built up a full head of steam as she took over midway down the lane, and bounded away with good-looking strides to prevail by a convincing two lengths.

“My wife [Ginny] did a sensational job with her all week,” said winning conditioner Butch Reid, whose prior Breeders’ Cup win came in the 2011 GII Breeders’ Cup Marathon with Afleet Again (Afleet Alex). “She really thrived on this air and the weather. She looked great coming in. I knew we would be laying up close. She’s a sharp filly. She doesn’t mind the inside obviously. I don’t know that you ever have that kind of feeling, but we knew she was doing very well and we know she’s a very talented filly.”

Rider Joel Rosario, who was celebrating his 12th Breeders’ Cup win, added, “I tried to save ground. It was hard for her in the turn because I had a horse outside me. But she did great. I never gave up my position. As soon as I asked her she went on with it. It was a very good performance.”

Vequist debuted for her breeders Tom and Sue McGrath’s Swilcan Stables going 4 1/2 furlongs at Parx July 29, and was beaten a nose that day while finishing 8 1/4 lengths clear of a next-out winner. Gary Barber and Adam Wachtel saw fit to acquire a 75% interest in the dark bay after that, and were immediately rewarded for their investment with a 9 1/2-length romp in Saratoga’s GI Spinaway S. over seven panels Sept. 6. She was second by two lengths at 9-10 last time to Dayoutoftheoffice, but still earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure and was 10 1/4 lengths clear of third.

“Well, you’re not used to getting calls when you lose a race and so they were, obviously, they’re at the top of the game and I have a small outfit,” Tom McGrath said after the race when describing the private deal after Vequist’s debut. “So you’re flattered, first of all, but second of all, it just made a lot of sense and this has been a really kind of a, for the people that aren’t big players in the game, it’s been a tough year. So we were looking at things and trimming where we could… I don’t think I’ll ever be able to exaggerate 2020, because you go from where we’re at in the spring to in the fall and sitting here. I’m in disbelief.”

Swilcan and Reid campaigned 2012 GI Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. winner and GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint contestant Poseidon’s Warrior (Speightstown).

Gary Barber, whose pink and black silks have become a fixture on the track and in the winner’s circle on big days like Friday, said, “I have a lot of people to thank. Obviously, Butch at the top. But my partner, Adam Wachtel and Tom for allowing us to buy in. Great partners. And I was really adamant that we keep her with Butch and Adam I discussed it. He knows her better than anybody else… I put a lot into this game and these are the moments you wait for. Up until this point today, it wasn’t going too well, but now from the basement to the penthouse.”

Friday, Keeneland
BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES-GI, $1,780,000, Keeneland, 11-6, 2yo, f, 1 1/16m, 1:42.30, ft.
1–VEQUIST, 122, f, 2, by Nyquist
1st Dam: Vero Amore (GSP, $252,255), by Mineshaft
2nd Dam: Summers Edge, by The Cliff’s Edge
3rd Dam: Miss Summer Reign, by Summer Squall
($120,000 RNA Ylg ’19 KEESEP). O-Gary Barber, Wachtel Stable & Swilcan Stable LLC; B-Swilcan Stables (KY); T-Robert E Reid Jr; J-Joel Rosario. $1,040,000. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $1,235,500. Werk Nick Rating: A+++ *Triple Plus*. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Dayoutoftheoffice, 122, f, 2, by Into Mischief
1st Dam: Gottahaveadream, by Indian Charlie
2nd Dam: Chasetheragingwind, by Dayjur
3rd Dam: Race the Wild Wind, by Sunny’s Halo
O-Blazing Meadows Farm & Siena Farm LLC; B-Siena Farms LLC (KY); T-Timothy E Hamm. $340,000.
3–Girl Daddy, 122, f, 2, by Uncle Mo
1st Dam: Cara Marie, by Unbridled’s Song
2nd Dam: Miss Kilroy, by A.P. Indy
3rd Dam: Miss Caerleona (Fr), by Caerleon
($500,000 Ylg ’19 KEESEP). O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-China Horse Club International Limited (KY); T-Dale L Romans. $180,000.
Margins: 2, NO, NO. Odds: 6.60, 4.00, 5.80.
Also Ran: Simply Ravishing, Princess Noor, Crazy Beautiful, Thoughtfully.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

Pedigree Notes:
Vero Amore, with Vequist in utero, RNA’d for $135,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale. Trainer Butch Reid purchased the mare as a 2-year-old on behalf of Swilcan Stables for $15,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic May sale. She was second in the GII Black-Eyed Susan S. and earned over $250,000.

Vero Amore produced a filly by Astern (Aus) in 2019 and a filly by Daredevil this year before being bred back to Accelerate.

Vequist became the first Grade I winner for Nyquist (Uncle Mo) when she captured the GI Spinaway S. The freshman sire also had the Spinaway third that day in Lady Lilly. The 2016 GI Kentucky Derby winner was also represented this year by GI Summer S. winner Gretzky the Great.

From the Also-Rans:

“She ran really hard, we’re proud of her. No complaints. We had a decent trip on the front end. Not a ton of pressure, no excuses. We talked about the race earlier and we said if no one goes I didn’t mind seeing her on the lead. She has a lot of natural speed and does it fairly easy so it didn’t shock me.” —Tim Hamm, trainer of Dayoutoftheoffice

“She ran super. I thought we had a chance [to win] turning for home. She ran a big race. She didn’t have the cleanest trip, but I am happy with her. She got hung a little wide; it wasn’t anyone’s fault, it is just the way the race unfolded.” —Girl Daddy’s trainer Dale Romans

“[Simply Ravishing] broke bad, stuck in traffic, nowhere to go and couldn’t get there. The one hole is kind of tough and like I said, she broke bad. Crazy Beautiful (Liam’s Map), we might need to regroup altogether. I think she might be a sprinter.” —Trainer Ken McPeek

“She was in a good spot, he had her in a perfect spot there but she just didn’t kick on. I’m pretty disappointed. She just came up empty. I had a lot of confidence in her but the winner ran a big race. They were going pretty fast. She just didn’t have it.” —Bob Baffert on beaten favorite Princess Noor

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Taking Stock: Yearling Averages and Unproven Sires

The bloodstock industry in Kentucky is heavily weighted to the commercial marketplace, and when the first yearlings of a stallion sell well, sometimes even experienced commercial breeders can get momentarily caught up in the euphoria. A breeder called me after the Fasig-Tipton October Sale to say that he was going to breed to such a stallion next year. That’s great, I told him, if he had a strong opinion on the horse, but I reminded him that he breeds to sell and he’d be breeding to a fourth-year sire, meaning that when he sold the resulting fourth-crop yearling, the stallion would have 4-year-olds racing. That sobered him up quickly after he digested the years, because he knew that if the sire wasn’t successful by then, his yearling would get hammered in the ring.

Here’s an actual example to illustrate the phenomenon: Will Take Charge’s (Unbridled’s Song) first-crop yearlings averaged $169,190 in 2017. He’d entered stud in 2015 for a $30,000 fee and when his first foals arrived in 2016 he again stood for $30,000. He was at the same fee in his third season at stud, when his first yearlings sold–and they were highly profitable for breeders versus the stud fee. In 2018, his second-crop yearlings averaged $140,149 with his first 2-year-olds at the track–his fourth year at stud, in which he also stood for $30,000. But in 2019, with his first runners now three, the stallion’s third-crop yearlings averaged just $29,882–less than the stud fee. This year, with 4-year-olds at the track, Will Take Charge’s fourth-crop yearlings, conceived on a $30,000 advertised fee, averaged $14,051, or less than half the stud fee.

This downward four-year progression of yearling averages is common, even for “successful” freshman sires. Will Take Charge was number five on the top 10 in 2018, but that promise wasn’t realized in 2019 with both 3-year-olds and 2-year-olds racing, or this year with three crops at the track, at least based on yearling averages.

The years can get confusing enough for experienced folks after the highs of a successful sale, with terms like first year at stud, first-crop yearlings, third-season sires, first-crop 2-year-olds, etc., floating around, so you can imagine what it’s like for less-experienced breeders, much less newbies. Meanwhile, stud farms, naturally, want to publicize the profitable sales of first-crop yearlings, and nowadays they tend to solicit breeders with this hype by offering discounted seasons for fourth-year sires to make them even more attractive.

However, in this hyper-commercial environment, there’s compelling evidence to suggest that most stud fees should drop in a stallion’s second year at stud, and here’s why: of the top 10 freshman sires of the last three years, second-crop yearling averages of 24 of these 30 sires (80%) declined versus their first-crop averages. Click here to view charts.

These charts are a retrospective look at yearling averages (only summer and fall yearlings; short yearlings are not included) of the 10 most successful freshman sires of 2018, 2019, and 2020 (to Nov. 1) by progeny earnings, and what they illustrate clearly is that racetrack success with first-crop 2-year-olds isn’t usually enough to lift prices of second-crop yearlings. Those stallions that didn’t make the top 10 suffered even more in this regard, as you can imagine. This, of course, explains why savvy commercial breeders will eagerly patronize an attractive first-year horse and shun the same horse in his second year at stud, when the upside chance of success in the ring isn’t worth the downside risk of failure on the track.

There are exceptions, of course. As noted, six of the 30 referenced stallions (20%) had upward movement in second-crop yearling averages versus first-crop averages. One of them was Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway), who has a trio in the Breeders’ Cup races this weekend, headed by Grade l winner Princess Noor. Not This Time’s first-crop yearling average was $67,352 last year (see chart 3), but this year his second-crop yearlings averaged $113,822, mostly on the strength of the quality and physiques of his early runners, including Princess Noor, who’d sold for $1.35-million at OBS this spring as a 2-year-old in training and then won the Gl Del Mar Debutante impressively a week before the Keeneland September sale, which was timely.

However, the case of Nyquist (Uncle Mo), who heads the top 10 this year and whose yearlings averaged $236,318 in 2019, is more the norm. He has been represented by two Grade l winners this year–one, Vequist, won the Gl Spinaway on the same day as the Del Mar Debutante–but his second-crop yearlings nonetheless averaged $165,773, down 30% from his first crop despite the success of Vequist before the September sale.

Furthermore, 16 of 19 stallions (84%; one died) had lower average prices with their third-crop yearlings than their second-crop yearlings (stallions in charts 1 and 2 combined). To more easily visualize this, I’ve included a row in bold type at the bottom of each chart that shows the age of the stallion’s first crop during the sales year of each subsequent crop of yearlings, because it’s the success or failure of that first crop of runners that’s so important to future viability as a stallion. This line might seem redundant, but without it as a handy reference I guarantee that you’d be doing the math in your head and frequently getting the numbers wrong, as the breeder who wanted to send a mare to a fourth-season sire did.

For our purposes, a fourth-season sire is equivalent to one with second-crop yearlings and first-crop runners, and that’s not easy to wrap your head around until you think about it.

In chart 1, for example, Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile) had first-crop yearlings sell in 2017 and third-crop yearlings sell in 2019, when his first crop was three. In his case, note that his second-crop yearling average in 2018, true to form, dropped to $110,100 from $150,786 (27%) when his first juveniles were at the track, and his third-crop average dropped further to $46,784 when he had 3-year-olds at the track. This year, with 4-year-olds racing, Cairo Prince’s fourth-crop yearling average stabilized at $47,601. In 2021, Cairo Prince will be serving his seventh book of mares, having entered stud in 2015.

Success on the track ultimately determines where a stallion’s yearling averages settle, and yearling averages for breeders in a commercial marketplace should have a healthy rather than toxic relationship to stud fee.

Downward Averages

The charts clearly explain several things at the same time–breeder preferences for first-year sires, downward yearling averages as a matter of norm–but most significantly they show why this happens: buyers won’t pay premiums for yearlings by sires who haven’t lit up the track with their first 2-year-olds, and prices tend to decrease with each subsequent crop if major racetrack success isn’t there.

In other words, in a commercial marketplace, it’s the buyers that drive yearling prices based on performance after the first crop of yearlings sell.

In the absence of performance–as is the case with first-crop yearlings–buyers will pay premiums based on a yearling’s sire’s race record, his dam’s pedigree, and his own physique. This is why attractive first-season sires usually get their best mares in the first of their four years at stud before their first 2-year-olds run, and it’s a pattern that will mostly reward a sire’s first-crop yearlings. Every crop of foals after the first crop will mostly get discounted in the sales ring by buyers.

If you understand this commercial paradigm, you’ll understand that limiting a stallion to 140 mares isn’t going to change the trajectory of yearling averages by crop. Buyers will still assess second-crop yearlings by first-crop 2-year-old performances, and so on. It will do a few things, though. For one, the most commercial first-year horses will see increases in stud fees. Second, more first-year stallions will be given chances at stud, but in the end they’ll all suffer the same fates as stallions do now as long as the current commercial model exists.

And this model isn’t favorable for an overwhelming number of horses after their first-crop yearlings sell, as these charts so aptly illustrate.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Like His Namesake, Gretzky The Great Taking On Big Challenge In Breeders’ Cup

Mark Casse and his wife had just arrived in Lexington, KY on Tuesday when they got the good news they needed. They'd both tested negative for Covid-19 and would be able to attend the $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf presented by Coolmore America at Keeneland.

That allows them to see if Gretzky the Great can continue to win like his namesake.

A name that boomed over the speakers at Woodbine this summer, Gretzky the Great was bred by Anderson Farms in St. Thomas, Ont. Anderson was impressed with the colt and Aron Wellman of Eclipse Thoroughbred paired with L.A. film producer Gary Barber to buy the horse. They handed him off to Casse, the trainer.

“I can remember when we first started training him in Ocala,” Casse said.

“When he started breezing I told Gary Barber and Aron Wellman both, I said, 'I think this horse is pretty good.' He's just done everything right, right from the beginning. I was surprised when he got beat his first time. I didn't think he'd get beat, but of course he got beat by a good horse that had a race over him.”

He lost that first race to Ready to Repeat on July 12 at Woodbine, placing second. He shook off the early loss to mount three wins in a row, on Aug. 2, then taking the Soaring Free Stakes on Aug. 23 and the Grade-1 Summer Stakes — a Breeders' Cup Challenge Series race — on Sept. 20.

“Since then, he keeps winning,” Casse said. “He's a beautiful-moving horse…and he's an extremely smart horse.”

While the horse was trained in Canada, the hockey-inspired name actually came from Barber, whose work in the film industry spans the last three decades and coincides with Wayne Gretzky's time as an L.A. King.

“I think Gary Barber named him. Gary is a huge, huge sports fan,” Casse said, pointing out that Gretzky the Great's sire is Nyquist, who is named after Detroit Red Wings forward Gustav Nyquist. His owner, J. Paul Reddam is a big Wings and (obviously) a Nyquist fan. So hockey, or at least hockey fandom, is in the family's blood.

“Nyquist is just turning out to be a phenomenal sire. This is his first crop,” Casse said.

Like Wayne Gretzky, Gretzky the Great is following a similar path in his field: Ontario-bred, success in Canada early in his career and now getting into the spotlight of his sport in the U.S. Of course, just four races into his young career, Gretzky the Great's future is in front of him and even with the promise he's shown to this point, nothing is guaranteed.

“It's tough to know,” Casse said. “He's going where he was a star in a regional area. Now he's going to compete against the world and you just never know how you fit in until you try. We've been fortunate, we've won the Breeders' Cup five times.

“Even at that point, with some of your horses you never know. It's truly hard to gauge. You go in with as much confidence as you can, but knowing that you never know until it's over.”

That's also part of the fun for Casse, who started down a path that his wife has heard him take by his estimation a million times in their years together.

“Training horses is like putting a puzzle together,” he said. “You're always trying different pieces and seeing what works. So far with him, the puzzle pieces have gone in very nicely.”

He looks at Gretzky the Great and wonders just how great he could be. He could see the Canadian-bred horse competing for the Queen's Plate, or maybe even at the Kentucky Derby. For now, it's step-by-step, race-by-race.

On Friday, Gretzky the Great will have some challenges. Casse said he could have gotten a better post, noting how hard it is to win from the 11-hole. He'll also be going from a one-turn mile at Woodbine to a two-turn mile in Lexington.

There are old stories about a young Wayne Gretzky playing above his head when he was young, a scrawny boy playing against kids a few years older than him. He scored his 1,000th minor hockey goal when he was 13; he scored 378 goals in his final season of peewee.

On Friday, a 2-year-old horse that's named after hockey's greatest player will try to make its mark against stiff competition. This is his opportunity.

“I'm hoping that one day he's good enough that maybe Wayne comes to see him,” Casse said. A lot has to happen first but if Gretzky the Great stays in the winner's circle enough, he might get his full circle moment.

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Unknown Commodities: Mark Casse On Bringing Freshman-Sired Runners Into The Breeders’ Cup

Though we can certainly start to form opinions on the talent and preferences of freshman sires by the fall, no stallion's resume is completely written heading into their first crop's Breeders' Cup.

Up to this point, even the most prolific freshman sires only have a small sampling of horses at the distances and class levels seen during the championship races. Though it can help guide a narrative, a strong or poor performance by one or two runners from a debut crop on one day at a single track does not engrave a sire's capability for putting out a precocious foal.

Trainer Mark Casse has two runners by freshman sires entered in this year's Breeders' Cup races for 2-year-olds, meaning he will be part of the real-time focus group learning about their sires' abilities with the rest of the world. Casse will send Gretzky the Great, by Nyquist, to the Juvenile Turf; and Dirty Dangle, by Not This Time, to the Juvenile Turf Sprint.

This is not to say, though, that Casse is going into these races completely blind to how his runners will perform. Aside from the obvious factors of hands-on experience and the horses' own past performance, the trainer prides himself in doing his homework when it comes to pedigree research.

“At the end of every day, I go through and look at the charts at every major racetrack, and I make mental notes of what sires are doing well on different surfaces,” he said. “I pay a lot of attention, too, to damsires. I'm big on buying out of certain damsires.”

Gretzky the Great flies the banner for sire Nyquist, a member of Darley's stallion roster in Lexington, Ky.

Nyquist was himself part of the record-setting freshman crop for sire Uncle Mo. Both Nyquist and Uncle Mo snagged Eclipse Awards as champion 2-year-old male after winning their respective editions of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, giving plenty of evidence that Nyquist's foals would be early types.

That has proven out thus far, with Nyquist siring a pair of Grade 1 winners heading into Novemver, making him the only North American freshman sire with more than one graded stakes winner. Nyquist's other Grade 1 winner this season was Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies contender Vequist, who took the G1 Spinaway Stakes earlier this year.

Gretzky the Great added himself to that list when he won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine on Sept. 20, clinching a “Win and You're In” berth to the Juvenile Turf in the process. The Ontario-bred has raced exclusively at Woodbine, breaking his maiden in his second start, then taking the listed Soaring Free Stakes before moving on to the Summer.

“We had high hopes on him from the beginning, but I think he's just gotten bigger, and better, and he's thriving,” Casse said. “He looks tremendous. He moves over the ground great. I believe if you can go a mile at Woodbine with that long stretch, you can pretty well go a mile anywhere. I think the two turns will actually be a benefit for him. He's got enough speed, he's going to be fairly close as long as he breaks well, and I think he'll really like this turf course.”

Nyquist raced exclusively on dirt during his own on-track career, and while Gretzky the Great's dam Pearl Turn started her career in Ireland, all of her wins came over the dirt after returning to the U.S.

Casse said the decision to start Gretzky the Great on the turf was part of his overarching program with his Ontario-based 2-year-olds.

“The pedigree obviously is extremely important, but that's what we do as trainers; we try different things,” he said. “With Gretzky the Great, our Grade 1 race for 2-year-olds is the Summer, so I try to get my horses to at least give them a chance on the grass. It turns out the Nyquists can do anything.”

Nyquist leads a tight race as the leading freshman sire by progeny earnings, with $1,108,381. Tracking closely behind him in second is Taylor Made Stallions' Not This Time, with $1,053,867.

Not This Time will be represented in Casse's barn by Juvenile Turf Sprint contender Dirty Dangle, who is unbeaten in two starts, both at Woodbine.

The filly enters the Juvenile Turf Sprint off a 1 1/4-length closing score in the Woodbine Cares Stakes on Sept. 19. She won on debut over Woodbine's all-weather main track in her debut.

“We purchased her after her last race, so I didn't have the privilege of training her before, but her race on turf at Woodbine was extremely good,” Casse said. “That's what made us purchase her.”

Dirty Dangle now races for Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Gary Barber, the same connections that campaign Gretzky the Great.

Not This Time's freshman runners are led by probable Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies favorite Princess Noor, who brought $1.35 million at auction earlier this year, and has gone undefeated in three starts, including a 6 1/2-length score in the G1 Del Mar Debutante Stakes and an 8 1/4-length drubbing of the Chandelier Stakes.

Like Nyquist, Not This Time was a fast-starting 2-year-old during his own time on the racetrack, winning the G3 Iroquois Stakes leading into a runner-up finish in the 2016 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

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