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Favorite Smiley Sobotka Likes The Distance, But Sam Davis Foes Carry High Hopes On Derby Trail

An all-star cast of jockeys and trainers will take a backseat to 12 talented but inexperienced 3-year-olds Saturday in the 41st running of the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, the first of two “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points races at Tampa Bay Downs.

The Sam F. Davis is one of four stakes on a 12-race Festival Preview Day 41 Presented by Lambholm South card set to begin at 11:50 a.m. Scheduled as the 11th race, it will be preceded (in order) by the Grade 3, $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes, for horses 4-years-old-and-upward at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf course; the $150,000 Suncoast Stakes for 3-year-old fillies, at a mile-and-40-yards on the main track; and the Grade 3, $175,000 Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes, for older fillies and mares at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf.

Approximate post time for the Sam F. Davis is 5:02 p.m. There is a carryover pool of $9,057.70 into the Super High-5 wager in the first race.

The Albaugh Family Stables, LLC-owned colt Smiley Sobotka has been established as the 3-1 morning-line favorite for the Sam F. Davis, run at a distance of a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the main track. Trained by Dale Romans, Smiley Sobotka will be ridden by Daniel Centeno while breaking from the No. 5 post position.

Smiley Sobotka won at the Sam F. Davis distance when he broke his maiden in October at Keeneland. He finished second at the same distance in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs.

The Sam F. Davis awards points on a 10-4-2-1 scale to the first four finishers toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 1 at Churchill Downs.

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott and future Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher each have two horses entered in the Sam F. Davis. Mott's runners are breeder-owner Michael Shanley's colt Nova Rags, who won the 7-furlong Pasco Stakes here on Jan. 16, and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations' colt Candy Man Rocket, an eye-popping maiden special weight winner on Jan. 9 at Gulfstream Park.

Nova Rags will again be ridden by Samy Camacho. Junior Alvarado is the pilot on Candy Man Rocket.

Pletcher, who has won the Sam F. Davis a record six times (no other trainer has won it more than twice), will counter with Known Agenda, a St. Elias Stables-owned homebred who finished third on Dec. 5 in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct in his most recent start, and Millean, a Jan. 10 maiden claiming winner at Gulfstream Park owned by Donegal Racing.

Velazquez will ride Known Agenda. Roberto Alvarado, Jr., has been named on Millean.

Smiley Sobotka and seven others will vie to keep the Mott and Pletcher-trained sophomores from the winner's circle, but Mott suggested Friday the biggest surprise in the Sam F. Davis would be a result that winds up surprising hardly anyone.

The race appears that wide-open.

“Both of our horses have been training well, and we're anxiously awaiting the outcome to see if we have horses good enough to go on and come back for the (Grade 2 Lambholm South) Tampa Bay Derby (on March 6),” Mott said today from his south Florida base. “It's a big test for both horses, and we have no great expectations. Candy Man Rocket hasn't been beyond 6 ½ furlongs and Nova Rags hasn't raced around two turns yet, so they need to be tested to find out how far they want to go.”

At this early stage, there are no true standouts entering the race. The only stakes winner in the field other than Nova Rags is Florida-bred gelding Boca Boy, who captured the restricted Florida Thoroughbred Breeders' and Owners' Association Florida Sire In Reality Stakes on Sept. 26 at Gulfstream. Antonio Gallardo rides Boca Boy.

Mott, who has also entered 4-year-old filly New York Girl in the Lambholm South Endeavour and Florida-bred Jade Empress in the Suncoast, hopes having won the Pasco here will be an extra advantage for Nova Rags.

“It's a safe racetrack and it's a very challenging racetrack,” Mott said. “It's deep and tiring, and you see some horses that don't run well on it. So with Nova Rags, it's a good thing he has that race (the Pasco) over the surface.”

Hidden Stash, who won his last two races as a 2-year-old, both around two turns, will break from the No. 1 post under jockey Hector Diaz, Jr. Among the others, trainer Patrick Biancone, who won last year's Sam F. Davis with Sole Volante, will attempt a repeat with Lucky Law, and George “Rusty” Arnold, II takes a shot with Runway Magic, to be ridden by Leparoux.

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Equibase Analysis: Mott Holding A Pair Of Aces In Sam F. Davis

This Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes is the local prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby four weeks from today and brings together a field of 12 (plus one also-eligible) attempting to become one of the betting favorites going into that race as well as to earn points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.”

Only five of the 13 have ever run in stakes races. Of those, Nova Rags is one of two which are stakes winners, having won the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last month around one turn, not the two-turn trip like the Sam F. Davis. Boca Boy is another with a stakes win, that coming last September in the In Reality Stakes. He is returning from a four and one-half month layoff since that race.

Smiley Sobotka finished second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall around two-turns but is returning to the races following more than two months off and facing many who have run more recently. Known Agenda finished third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last December and is yet another coming into the race off a layoff. Runway Magic finished third in the Limehouse Stakes last month at Gulfstream Park, a one-turn race and rounds out those which have competed in stakes before today.

Then there is a trio of recent winners on dirt who could step up to the task. This trio includes local winner Ricochet, impressive nine length winner Candy Man Rocket and Hidden Stash, who is another coming back from more than three months off. Millean won his most recent race last month but in a maiden claiming race so appears a bit overmatched. Joe Man Joe and Lucky Law finished second and first, respectively, in their most recent starts. Both were around two-turns but were on turf so it remains to be seen if they can transfer that form to dirt and improve to be competitive in a stakes as well. Last Investment and also-eligible Tiz Tact Toe round out the field as horses who have yet to break their maidens in seven combined starts.

Candy Man Rocket gets slight preference among three main win contenders in this year's Sam F. Davis Stakes, although he has never raced around two turns and has only a maiden win to his credit. I think this colt has tremendous upside based on earning a field high 98 Equibase Speed Figure in his nine length maiden win last month sprinting at Gulfstream Park. Considering this will be only his third career start, Candy Man Rocket has every right to continue to improve and that means his opponents would have to improve doubly in order to beat him even if he simply repeats the effort. There is little doubt Candy Man Rocket can do just that around two-turns as a son of Candy Ride, whose has had 12 of his 34 foals win stakes races for three year olds over the last five years. Some of those are big names such as Vekoma and Gun Runner. Then there's the prowess his Hall-of-Fame trainer has in recognizing talent. Over the last five years, when trainer Bill Mott raises a horse off a maiden win to a stakes race, his charges have finished first or second in 10 of 20 tries. All those factors lead me to believe Candy Man Rocket can pull off the upset in this race.

Mott also saddles Nova Rags, one of just two stakes winners in the field. Nova Rags returned from two months off last month and won the Pasco Stakes at seven furlongs. Although the 85 is well behind the 98 figure his stablemate earned one week earlier, Nova Rags has every right to improve second off the layoff and around two turns. Sired by 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, Nova Rags is out of the Smart Strike mare Wishful Splendor, whose sons and daughters have won 17 of 73 dirt route races, including 2011 Indiana Oaks winner Juanita. To be ridden by Tampa Bay Downs leading jockey Sammy Camacho, Nova Rags can take a big step forward in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and toss his name into the ring as a top three year old on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Ricochet is a two-turn winner at Tampa, a claim none of the other 12 horses in this race can make. Stretched out to two-turns for the first time at the end of November, Ricochet opened up by two and one-half lengths in the stretch only to be nailed right on the wire by a head. Improving to a career-best 94 figure which is the second best in the field by far, Ricochet made short work of the field in December when winning by eight lengths. On a pattern for another step forward, if Candy Man Rocket does not improve as expected, Ricochet would be no surprise winning this race.

After that group of three, there are four more which deserve honorable mention – Hidden Stash, Known Agenda, Lucky Law and Smiley Sobotka, each having good reasons to consider them as contenders but each also with slight question marks. Hidden Stash improved to a career best 89 figure when last seen at the end of November, bringing his record around two-turns to a perfect two-for-two. However, coming back from two months off he would need to be in tip-top shape to pick up where he left off. Known Agenda won a nine furlong race in November, the second start of his career, earning an 86 figure in the process. He improved to 88 although a well-beaten third in the Remsen Stakes in December and if this was his second start off a layoff, not his first, I think he would be a top contender. Similarly, Smiley Sobotka improved nicely in his first route and second career start in October to win then finished second of nine in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (with a 90 figure) after opening up by a couple of lengths with an eighth of a mile to go. He's been working fast but there is always the concern about needing a race before running well enough to win around two turns off a layoff. Lucky Law stretched out to two turns off a runner-up effort and won nicely last month. Both races were on turf so he would need to transfer that form to dirt and improve off the 83 figure earned in that last start. However, trainer Patrick Biancone successfully transitioned horses to dirt on the Road to the Derby last year with both Ete Indien and Sole Volante.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Boca Boy (78), Joe Man Joe (89), Millean (84), Last Investment (81), Tiz Tact Toe (78) and Runway Magic (92).

Win Contenders, in probability order:
Candy Man Rocket
Nova Rags
Ricochet

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Nova Rags, Candy Man Rocket Give Mott One-Two Punch In Sam F. Davis Stakes

Nova Rags, who won the Pasco Stakes on Jan. 16, and Candy Man Rocket, a runaway winner of a maiden special weight sprint on Jan. 9 at Gulfstream, give Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott a formidable pair of contenders in Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, the main event of Festival Preview Day 41 Presented by Lambholm South at Tampa Bay Downs.

Nova Rags will again be ridden by leading Oldsmar jockey Samy Camacho. Mott has named Junior Alvarado to ride Candy Man Rocket. The 41st running of the mile-and-a-sixteenth race on the main track, which awards “Road to the Kentucky Derby” qualifying points to the first four finishers on a 10-4-2-1 scale, has drawn an overflow field of 13 3-year-olds, with maiden Tiz Tact Toe on the also-eligible list.

Mott may have rival trainer Todd Pletcher to beat. Pletcher, who has won a record six Sam F. Davis Stakes, will go for No. 7 with Donegal Racing's colt Millean and St. Elias Stables' Known Agenda, who finished third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Dec. 5 at Aqueduct.

The Sam F. Davis, scheduled as the 11th race on a 12-race card beginning at 11:50 a.m., is one of four stakes offering an aggregate $750,000 in stakes purse money.

Saturday's 35th running of the Grade 3, $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes, for horses 4-years-old-and-upward going a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf, is scheduled as the eighth race. A field of 12 older horses is expected, headed by 4-year-old gelding Sole Volante, last year's Sam F. Davis Stakes winner, and Grade 2-winning 4-year-old colt Fancy Liquor.

Sole Volante is trained by Patrick Biancone and will be ridden by Robby Albarado. Fancy Liquor is trained by Michael Maker and will have Hector Diaz, Jr., in the saddle.

The 22nd edition of the Grade 3, $175,000 Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes, for fillies and mares 4-and-upward racing a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf, has attracted eight entries and is scheduled as the 10th race. Heading the field are 4-year-old filly New York Girl, an Irish-bred who won her first start in the United States on Dec. 31 at Gulfstream, and Counterparty Risk, a game second in the Lady of Shamrock Stakes on Dec. 26 at Santa Anita.

New York Girl is trained by Mott and will be ridden by Junior Alvarado. Chad Brown conditions Counterparty Risk, who will be ridden by John Velazquez.

The other stakes is the 41st running of the $150,000 Suncoast Stakes for 3-year-old fillies traveling a mile-and-40-yards on the main track. The Suncoast, which lured 10 entries, is the ninth race on the card.

Among the likely contenders are Special Princess, who dead-heated for victory in the Gasparilla Stakes here on Jan. 16, and Feeling Mischief, who captured the Sandpiper Stakes here on Dec. 5 before settling for third in the Gasparilla.

Ademar Santos will ride Special Princess for trainer Walter Woodard. Jesus Castanon will be aboard Feeling Mischief for trainer Michael Campbell. Another probable contender is trainer Rodolphe Brisset's Gulf Coast, to be ridden by Julien Leparoux.

Here is the full field for the Sam F. Davis Stakes in post position order, followed by trainer and jockey:

1. Hidden Stash, Victoria Oliver, Hector Diaz, Jr. 2. Joe Man Joe, David Fisher, Huber Villa-Gomez. 3. Known Agenda, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez. 4. Millean, Todd Pletcher, Roberto Alvarado, Jr. 5. Smiley Sobotka, Dale Romans, Daniel Centeno. 6. Runway Magic, George “Rusty” Arnold, II, Julien Leparoux. 7. Boca Boy, Cheryl Winebaugh, Antonio Gallardo. 8. Nova Rags, Bill Mott, Samy Camacho. 9. Candy Man Rocket, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado. 10. Ricochet, Kelsey Danner, Jesus Castanon. 11. Lucky Law, Patrick Biancone, Robby Albarado. 12. Last Investment, Stacy Lane Hendry, Ademar Santos. 13 (also eligible, draws in if there is a late scratch): Tiz Tact Toe, Robert B. Hess, Jr., Alonso Quinonez.

Here is the full field for the Tampa Bay Stakes in post position order, followed by trainer and jockey:

1. Atone, Eoin Harty, Tomas Mejia. 2. Admission Office, Brian Lynch, Julien Leparoux. 3. Get Smokin, Thomas Bush, Julien Leparoux. 4. Talk Or Listen, Arnaud Delacour, Daniel Centeno. 5. Delaware, Chad Brown, Antonio Gallardo. 6. Proven Strategies, Mark Casse, Jose Ferrer. 7. By Your Side, Michael Maker, Jesus Castanon. 8. Eons, Arnaud Delacour, Samy Camacho. 9. Sole Volante, Patrick Biancone, Robby Albarado. 10. Fancy Liquor, Michael Maker, Hector Diaz, Jr. 11. Armistice Day, Barbara Minshall, Roberto Alvarado, Jr. 12. Greyes Creek, Chad Brown, John Velazquez.

Here is the full field for the Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes in post position order, followed by trainer and jockey:

1. Margaret's Joy, Michelle Nihei, Ronnie Allen, Jr. 2. Logic N Reason, Christophe Clement, Samy Camacho. 3. No Mercey Percy, Rafael Schistl, Ademar Santos. 4. Eres Tu (main track only), Arnaud Delacour, Samy Camacho. 5. Counterparty Risk, Chad Brown, John Velazquez. 6. New York Girl, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado. 7. Kelsey's Cross, Patrick Biancone, Robby Albarado. 8. Irony of Reality, Ron G. Potts, Huber Villa-Gomez.

Here is the full field for the Suncoast Stakes in post position order, followed by trainer and jockey:

1. Roll Up Mo Money, Ken McPeek, Samy Camacho. 2. Feeling Mischief, Michael Campbell, Jesus Castanon. 3. Jade Empress, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado. 4. Curlin's Catch, Mark Casse, Antonio Gallardo. 5. Honorifique, Eddie Kenneally, John Velazquez. 6. Scenic Overlook, Eoin Harty, Alonso Quinonez. 7. Gulf Coast, Rodolphe Brisset, Julien Leparoux. 8. Be Sneaky, Arnaud Delacour, Hector Diaz, Jr. 9. Il Malocchio, Ken McPeek, Robby Albarado. 10. Special Princess, Walter Woodard, Ademar Santos.

Due to COVID-19 restrictions, Tampa Bay Downs is limiting general-admission attendance for the Festival Preview Day 41 Presented by Lambholm South card to 2,500 spectators. Tickets, which are $10 each plus a service fee, are being sold online through Eventbrite.com and at the program stands.

Horsemen, box-seat holders and season-ticket holders do not need to purchase tickets, but must present their passes at the gate to gain admittance.

Seating will be available on a first-come, first-serve basis unless patrons have prior arrangements in the Skye Terrace Dining Room, Sports Gallery, Clubhouse Carrels or Legends Bar, but the purchase of a general-admission ticket is still required to gain admittance.

The track is also selling a limited number of tables in the Backyard Picnic Area for $50 each plus a service fee; that price includes admission for six people.

Here is the link for Festival Preview Day 41 tickets and picnic-area seating:

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/festival-preview-day-41-presented-by-lambholm-south-tickets-135338604409

Everyone will be required to wear masks or face coverings and maintain appropriate social distancing.

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: Midnight Bourbon Aging Well

One Kentucky Derby qualifying points race was held over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, but there were a couple of other races worth looking at.

The points race was the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes from Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La., a 1 1/16-mile contest offering 17 Derby points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1). While no winners of the Lecomte have gone on to capture the G1 Kentucky Derby, there are some notable successes in the not-too-distant past, including G1 Preakness winners War of Will (2019) and Oxbow (2013). Going back a few more years to 2007, you'll find Derby runner-up Hard Spun on the Lecomte winner's roster.

Tampa Bay Downs ran the Pasco Stakes, a starting point for the Oldsmar, Fla., track's Derby qualifying points races: the Feb. 6 Sam F. Davis (17 points) and March 6 Tampa Bay Derby (85 points). The Pasco, run at seven furlongs, offered a $125,000 purse but no Derby points and has never produced a winner that had an impact on the Triple Crown.

Finally, California-breds were in the spotlight at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif., including 3-year-olds in the Cal Cup Derby. While this might not be a points race, let's remember that a Lucky Pulpit colt named California Chrome launched his 3-year-old championship campaign (including Kentucky Derby and Preakness wins) with a victory in the Cal Cup Derby.

As I wrote in my first 2021 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card, the following grades are entirely subjective and based on my personal “eyeball test,” Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of fields. I don't employ an “easy” curve in my grading.

Jan. 16: Lecomte Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Fair Grounds

Midnight Bourbon was second-choice in the wagering behind the Brad Cox-trained Into Mischief colt Mandaloun, the 4-5 favorite who came into the Lecomte undefeated in two starts: a six-furlong maiden win at Keeneland Oct. 24 and an allowance victory at Churchill Downs Nov. 28. Midnight Bourbon, trained by Steve Asmussen, chased the front-running (and likely distance challenged) Jackie's Warrior last time out when third in the G1 Champagne Stakes at a one-turn mile at Belmont Park Oct. 10. Michael Stidham-trained Proxy (by Tapit) won back-to-back maiden and allowance races around two turns in November and December at Fair Grounds after narrowly losing his debut at Monmouth Oct. 24. He was the 8-1 fifth choice in the betting.

Midnight Bourbon and Joe Talamo hold off Proxy and Mandaloun to win the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds

All three come from serious racing and breeding operations: Midnight Bourbon is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred Tiznow colt; Mandaloun is a Juddmonte Farms homebred; and Proxy is a Godolphin homebred produced from the outstanding racemare Panty Raid, winner of the G1 Spinster at Keeneland.

Midnight Bourbon has the goods pedigree-wise, being a half brother to G3 Salvatore Mile winner Pirate's Punch (by Shanghai Bobby); G1 Haskell winner Girvin (by Tale of Ekati); and G3 Iroquois winner Cocked and Loaded (by Colonel John). Now pensioned Tiznow, the two-time G1 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, has been an outstanding sire. He was a late developer, not debuting until late April of his 3-year-old campaign and winding up the year as the champion 3-year-old male and 2000 Horse of the Year. It wouldn't be a stretch to think Midnight Bourbon will age well.

Joe Talamo, subbing for jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard Midnight Bourbon, took it to his rivals early, outhustling Proxy and Mandaloun for the early lead and laying down 24 and change fractions all the way around the Fair Grounds oval and repelling bids from Proxy and a three-wide Mandaloun from the three-eighths pole to the wire, holding them at bay by one length. Trainer Cox said he might put blinkers on Mandaloun for his next start in the Risen Star, where he'll get a rematch with Midnight Bourbon.

The winner earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in the Lecomte, a significant improvement from his previous best Beyer, 80, when second to late-running Sittin On Go at Churchill Downs in the G3 Iroquois Sept. 5 after making a bold move to the lead on the turn for home.

Midnight Bourbon ran his final sixteenth in 6.32 seconds and the final five-sixteenths in 30.85 in his first true two-turn test (he broke his maiden going a mile on the peculiar Ellis Park layout where they start coming out of a chute on the clubhouse turn).

Grade: B

Jan. 16: Pasco Stakes, seven furlongs, Tampa Bay Downs

The Bill Mott-trained Union Rags colt Nova Rags jumped off the Daily Racing Form past performances page as the only 3-year-old in the eight-horse lineup to contest a graded stakes, finishing fourth in the G3 Nashua at Aqueduct on Nov. 8.

Nova Rags was made the 13-10 favorite and ran to his odds, winning by 2 ¾ lengths under Samy Camacho despite going very wide throughout (five wide going into the final turn). Nova Rags covered seven furlongs in 1:24.55 and earned a 75 Beyer Speed Figure, three ticks lower than a 78 Beyer in his debut maiden victory at Belmont Park Oct. 10.

Nova Rags draws off late under Samy Camacho to win the Pasco Stakes by 2 3/4 lengths

Out of a Smart Strike mare, the Michael Shanley homebred should improve with distance and Hall of Famer Mott is known for his patience with all of his horses. It's hard to take much from this race, especially when you go back and look at how soundly he was defeated in the Nashua, where he lost by 14 ¼ lengths without apparent excuse.

Grade: D

Jan. 16: California Cup Derby 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita

Trainer David Hofmans added blinkers to Big Fish's equipment for this race restricted to California-bred or -sired horses after removing the hood two starts back. This a long-striding colt by the Dynaformer stallion Mr. Big who probably wasn't best suited when sent out for a 4 ½-furlong maiden test last June 19 in his debut, finishing second. After another sprint try on dirt where he finished third to Cal Cup Derby favorite Good With People, Hofmans moved Big Fish to turf, where he graduated against state-breds going one mile, then won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes against open company at the same distance.

Big Fish put in a big stretch run to win the California Cup Derby under Juan Hernandez

In the Cal Cup Derby, jockey Juan Hernandez allowed Big Fish to settle well behind the early leaders, commenced a drive around the three-eighths pole, saved ground into the stretch and ran down Good With People and Peter Miller stablemate None Above the Law. Big Fish won going away by 1 ½ lengths in a fairly pedestrian 1:46.37 for 1 1/16 miles, earning a 71 Beyer Speed Figure.

Hofmans now has options for the Legacy Ranch homebred, who comes from the same female family as Pasco winner Nova Rags. The fourth dam of Big Fish is Kaylem Ho, and Kaylem Ho is the second dam of Nova Rags. Kaylem Ho was a member of Mrs. Henry D. Paxson's excellent broodmare ban in the late 1970s in Pennsylvania.

Grade: C-

Coming up on Friday's opening-day card at Oaklawn is the Smarty Jones Stakes at a mile, with 17 Derby points offered. The following weekend, the Road to the Kentucky Derby gets more serious with the Jan. 30 Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park and Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita.

Previously: Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

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