not this time | Horse Racing Free Tips

This Side Up: Young Guns Seek Juvenile Momentum

You can’t really resent someone hoarding the ammunition, if he only needs it because he’s being forced to play Russian roulette.

That’s pretty much how things are for all those new, unproven stallions who corral such huge books of mares. Yes, I remain ever aggrieved on behalf of those quiet achievers who never get commercial traction, despite results that will almost invariably prove beyond their emerging rivals. But I do feel increasing sympathy for the young guns, because their margin for error is zero. They have to land running, or they can pack their bags.

Only rarely can a horse persuade the market to repent, like Daredevil. His export to Turkey last year, certainly, was a good deal more typical than his recent repatriation. After entertaining 376 mares across three seasons, he had found himself reduced to 21 as breeders moved on to the next parade of clean-cut cadets.

Such is the ruthlessly narrow window of opportunity. While allowances may be made for the two-turn type–whose clientele tend to be in less of a hurry and may even, glory be, include end-users–any of us can already look down the current freshmen’s table and speculate which may be first to Louisiana, and which to Korea.

The juvenile program at the Breeders’ Cup on Friday serves as a real “windsock” for those latest stallions trying to get airborne. Needless to say, we also have several established names defending their patriarchal status through the likes of Essential Quality (Tapit). But the annual distribution of the mare pool is such that the most precocious animals in any crop–typically out of more commercial dams–tend to represent the new blood.

Freshman sire Not This Time | Jon Siegel

Sure enough, Not This Time looks to seal his flying start with an unbeaten favorite, Princess Noor, in the GI Juvenile Fillies. In the same race, others near the top of the freshmen’s league are represented by Simply Ravishing (Laoban) and Vequist (Nyquist).

Success for Vequist would show how tightly these cycles turn: Nyquist himself, in sealing his championship at the Breeders’ Cup, belonged to the first crop of Uncle Mo–who duly gained an eponymous momentum he has maintained ever since.

Nyquist also fields Gretzky the Great in the GI Juvenile Turf (presented by Coolmore America), where Outwork has the chance to consolidate his own strong start through Outadore. And in the GI Juvenile (presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance) itself, a whole bunch of freshmen take a hand: Not This Time again, plus one apiece for Upstart, Frosted and Brody’s Cause; and a couple of longshots for Laoban.

Even getting this far, mind, is only a start. Plenty of stallions have faltered after producing one or two headliners early in their careers. The challenge, then, is to consolidate after the same fashion as Maclean’s Music, who gained his first-crop foothold through the GI Preakness success of Cloud Computing but has now, crucially, built on that with two Breeders’ Cup favorites: Complexity, in the GI Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile; and Jackie’s Warrior, here in the Juvenile.

Complexity has regrouped splendidly after bombing in the 2018 Juvenile, having pitched up (just like Jackie’s Warrior) as a dazzling GI Champagne winner. Jackie’s Warrior’s forte, unsurprisingly in a barn full of speedballs, appears to be “pouring it on”. Whether he can stretch again remains to be seen: for the one-turn mile at Belmont, he tempered his opening fractions to 23.12 and 46.54, having blazed 22.56 and 44.83 in the GI Runhappy Hopeful S. and 22.06 and 44.85 over six on his previous start. The handicappers who think money grows on speed figure trees will seek no farther.

But if Maclean’s Music is a model for the rookies–in his own freshman campaign, 20 winners from just 40 starters conceived at $6,500 earned him 181 mares (including the dam of Jackie’s Warrior) at $25,000 the following spring–then he is still gazing upwards at venerable Classic influences like Tapit and the late Empire Maker.

Both have aristocratic sons menacing Jackie’s Warrior, but whereas Essential Quality–his family newly decorated by Japanese champ Contrail (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn})–is a Grade I winner over the track, Classier arrives here very raw.

The late Empire Maker could add to his legacy | EquiSport Photos

The single consolation, when Empire Maker died at the start of the year, was that he had long secured his legacy, with grandsons at stud including American Pharoah, Cairo Prince, Classic Empire, Midnight Storm and Always Dreaming. True, their respective sires had left the stage: Pioneerof the Nile predeceased Empire Maker, while Bodemeister was one of those posted to Turkey after failing to build on his breakout. With another couple of crops in the pipeline, however, Empire Maker may yet add one or two direct heirs.

As a $775,000 Keeneland September yearling, Classier was certainly priced to be a stallion–and his powerful ownership group could not have asked for a better start. They will be making no assumptions, however, after what happened with another son of Empire Maker in this race last year.

The implosion of Eight Rings opened the door to Storm the Court (Court Vision), whose shock success was by no means an outlier in a race that has also given us the likes of Action This Day (Kris S.), Wilko (Awesome Again), Vale of York (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) and Anees (Unbridled). In that tradition, I offer you Rombauer (Twirling Candy).

Certainly his sire sets an exemplary pattern to the young guns, having dropped from $15,000 to $10,000 when his first runners appeared before earning gradual increments to $40,000. In the present market, moreover, for Twirling Candy to hold that fee for 2021 in effect represents another hike. And the diversity of his best stock, from dirt dashers (like GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint candidate Collusion Illusion) to turf routers, puts him in a strong position in the race eventually to succeed Candy Ride (Arg).

Actually his sire’s flexibility almost put Rombauer off the scent, as he started his career on grass. But then the excellent Michael McCarthy switched John and Diane Fradkin’s homebred to the main track for the GI American Pharoah S. The result was a really auspicious two-turn dirt reconnaissance. Detached early, while appearing perfectly at ease, he circled the field with a powerful move and closed to within a length of the winner, who had been handy throughout, clearing away all the while from Classier’s odds-on barnmate Spielberg (Union Rags).

Rombauer has royal Californian blood: his second dam is Ultrafleet, who gave us not only Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner California Flag (Avenue of Flags) but also his sister Cambiocorsa, “queen of the hill” at Santa Anita and granddam of Roaring Lion (Kitten’s Joy).

This winter brings us the poignant, fleeting opportunity to buy the only weanlings by Roaring Lion, whose story reminds us how unpredictable are the paths ahead of even the most wonderful young horses. Safe travels to all, then. All the rest is gravy.

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Quality Sells At Fasig-Tipton

LEXINGTON, KY – While Into Mischief secured the top lots during Monday’s first session of the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearlings Sale, it was Quality Road in charge during Tuesday’s second session as Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners went to a session-topping $560,000 to secure a son of the Lane’s End stallion. The day kicked off with a daughter of Quality Road bringing what was ultimately the session’s co-second-highest price of $230,000.

Through two sessions, Fasig-Tipton has sold 489 yearlings for a gross of $16,390,500. The two-day average is $33,518, down 12.7% from last year’s corresponding figure, while the median remained unchanged at $15,000.

“There was solid trade again today,” Fasig-Tipton President Boyd Browning said Tuesday evening. “There was a very respectable RNA rate, the average was down slightly from last year at this point. All in all, I think there has been a legitimate marketplace that has been fair for both buyers and sellers.”

The buy-back rate continued to trend down from 2019, with the two-day figure resting at 21.4% following Tuesday’s action.

“The credit for [the buy-back rate] goes to the sellers for being pretty realistic in their expectations,” Browning said. “Both the owners and the consignors/agents who have educated their principals as to the realities of the marketplace. So the buy-back rate has certainly been at an acceptable level and there are horses who continue to get sold post-sale that aren’t reflected in that figure.”

Through the first two days of the four-day auction, 10 yearlings have sold for $200,000 or over, compared to 21 a year ago.

The auction continued the familiar refrain of market polarization, with the perceived quality lots attracting plenty of attention and horses below that mark struggling.

“It’s been soft, but when the right one shows up, the money shows up,” trainer Bruce Levine summed up the market at Fasig-Tipton this week. Levine purchased a colt by Pioneeof the Nile for the session’s co-second highest price of $230,000.

Internet bidding has produced 43 sales during the first two days of the sale, with 27 yearlings selling online Tuesday added to 16 Monday.

“Some of those folks would have contacted somebody, used an agent, would have phone bid, or figured out another way to bid, but clearly certain people are comfortable in participating via the internet,” Browning said. “It’s another way to provide bidding opportunities and options for those who want to participate in that fashion.”

The October sale continues through Thursday with sessions beginning daily at 10 a.m.

Eclipse Hoping for Another ‘Great’ Colt
Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners will be heading to the Breeders’ Cup in a couple weeks with Grade I-winning juvenile Gretzky the Great and the operation added a Quality Road half-brother to that colt to its roster when bloodstock agent Jacob West signed the ticket on hip 498 at $560,000. The yearling was bred and consigned by Dave Anderson’s Anderson Farms.

“It makes sense,” West, bidding outside behind the pavilion, said of the purchase. “Eclipse has the brother, and this colt was the star of the show here in our opinion. He is by a proven sire in Quality Road that Eclipse has had a lot of success with and he’s a half to a horse we know a lot about, obviously, and have had success with. He’s from a good breeder in Dave Anderson and his operation.”

West expects the June 4 colt will only continue to improve.

“Being a June foal, Dave did right by him, backing him up into this sale and giving him as much time as he could to let him grow up and into himself. But I still think the horse has a lot more maturing to do and he’s going to look like a completely different horse even 60 days from now.”

Of the yearling’s final price, West said, “We knew we weren’t going to walk in here and steal him. He was a pretty obvious horse for everybody.”

The SF Bloodstock and Starlight spearheaded partnership which has been so active buying well-bred yearling colts this fall, was underbidder on the youngster while doing their bidding upstairs in the pavilion.

Gretzky the Great RNA’d for $295,000 at last year’s October sale. Campaigned by Eclipse and Gary Barber and trained by Mark Casse, the colt broke his maiden at Woodbine in August and added the Soaring Free S. just weeks later. He booked his ticket to the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf with a 3 1/4-length victory in the Sept. 20 GI Summer S., which was run as the Keeneland September sale was already halfway done.

“We pointed this horse to this sale because he was a June foal and we just wanted to give him some more time,” Anderson said. “We were hoping that his brother would continue to do well and the stars were aligned.”

Anderson, who sold a Medaglia d’Oro filly (hip 319) for $1.6 million at last month’s Keeneland September sale, purchased Pearl Turn (Bernardini) for $310,000 at the 2016 Keeneland November sale. Now 10, the mare was multiple stakes placed while earning $182,560 on the racetrack.

“At the time, I didn’t realize that Bernardini was going to go on and be as good a broodmare as he is,” Anderson said of his 2016 purchase. “That was just a plus. But she comes from an old Calumet family that my dad had a couple of mares out of and that family meant a lot to me. The mare could really run, though it didn’t show it on paper, but she had a lot of ability. Any time you can find a mare bred like her that had a lot of ability, you’ve got to take advantage of it.”

Anderson added Pearl Turn is currently in foal to Nyquist’s sire Uncle Mo and due early.

Quality Road Filly Kickstarts Tuesday
A filly by Quality Road (hip 389), the first horse through the ring Tuesday morning, got the second session of the October sale off to a quick start when selling for $230,000 to the bid of pinhooker Ciaran Dunne. The yearling is out of the stakes-placed Moonlight Sky (Sky Mesa), a half-sister to champion Abel Tasman (Quality Road). She was bred by China Horse Club International and consigned Tuesday by Claiborne Farm.

“It’s obvious,” Dunne said of the yearling’s appeal. “She’s a Quality Road filly and we have had a lot of success with Quality Road through the years. For me, he is the best sire in the country. It’s a wonderful family. She needs to mature, but she’s a late foal, so hopefully she will.”

Dunne purchased a colt by Quality Road for $240,000 on behalf of a pinhooking partnership at last year’s October sale and the youngster (hip 1018) sold for $1.25 million at this year’s OBS Spring Sale. Dunne’s Wavertree Stables also sold subsequent multiple Grade I winner Bellafina (Quality Road) and multiple graded winner Blofeld (Quality Road).

Dunne did his bidding on the yearling from the back row of the sales pavilion, ultimately seeing off a group led by Becky Thomas and Al Pike sitting just a few rows in front of him.

China Horse Club, which co-owned 2017 GI Kentucky Oaks winner and champion 3-year-old filly Abel Tasman, purchased Moonlight Sky for $675,000 at that year’s Fasig-Tipton November sale. The yearling, a May 22 filly, is the mare’s first foal. She was not bred last year, but was bred back to Curlin this past spring.

“That was a great result,” Claiborne’s Jill Gordon said. “The filly has always been very straightforward at the farm and she was the same up here. She is a beautiful mover and she’s got a lot of class.”

Abel Tasman, who sold for $5 million to Coolmore’s M.V. Magnier at the 2019 Keeneland January sale, produced a colt by Galileo (Ire) this year.

Levine Strikes for Pioneerof the Nile Colt

Bruce Levine vetted just one horse at Newtown Paddocks this week, a colt by Pioneerof the Nile, and that yearling (hip 680) will join the trainer’s New York-based string after selling for $230,000 Tuesday at Fasig-Tipton.

“I just thought he was a neat-looking colt,” Levine said after signing the ticket on behalf of an undisclosed client. “He’s out of a graded stakes-winning mare. And the sire–how are you going to knock him?”

The bay colt is out of Savvy Supreme (Distorted Humor), who is a full-sister to Grade I winner Commentator. Co-bred by WinStar Farm and Joe Minor’s JSM Equine, the yearling was consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency.

WinStar purchased Savvy Supreme for $520,000 as a weanling at the 2008 Keeneland November sale and she won the 2011 GIII Monmouth Oaks in that operation’s colors. Carrying this Pioneerof the Nile colt, she RNA’d for $170,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale. The yearling’s full-brother sold for $350,000 to Repole and St. Elias at the 2019 Keeneland September sale.

Of the colt’s final price Tuesday, Levine said, “I think it was just me and one other person and we kept going from $75,000 or $80,000, he just kept chasing me. I would have gone a little higher, but not much higher. I was at Keeneland, we bought a couple, and I wanted to get one or two more. But this was a horse I liked and he was actually the only one I vetted. We’ll keep our fingers crossed.”

Not This Time Colt Helps Lange Weather Storm
Lee Lange and Don Credeur were on the road home to Louisiana Tuesday as Hurricane Zeta bore down on the state, but before they left Lexington the two men watched their colt by Not This Time sell for $170,000 to Team Casse. Lange and Credeur purchased Pop Singer (Scat Daddy), with this colt in utero, for $14,000 at the Fasig-Tipton February sale in 2019.

“She was such a beautiful mare herself and she was by Scat Daddy, so those were the two things that appealed to me and my partner, Don Credeur,” Lange said Tuesday. “I thought we stole her at that price.”

Credeur added with a laugh, “We just met the guy we bought her from and naturally he wants her back.”

Since Lange and Credeur purchased the 7-year-old mare, who was carrying her first foal, Not This Time’s popularity has only grown, helped by the Grade I victory of OBS Spring topper Princess Noor.

“Every time we got a tidbit of news, it was even better,” Lange said of the first-year sire’s exploits.

Lange said they were expecting the yearling would sell in the range of $125,000, so he exceeded expectations, but was making up for what has been a tough year to sell yearlings.

“I sold a couple of 2-year-olds, but up until this point I think we had bought all of our yearlings back,” Lange said.

Credeur said, “We brought five to the Opelousas sale and had to buy them all back.”

Lange, who owns Sunset Stables in Louisiana and is president of the oil pipe company Aztec Pipe, Inc., has about 10 mares, some of which are in partnership with Credeur.

“We only race what we can’t sell,” Lange said.

Of Pop Singer, Lange added, “We still have the mare. She didn’t get in foal last year, but she is back in foal this year to Midshipman.”

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Not This Time Colt Romps at Keeneland

4th-Keeneland, $70,706, Alw, 10-24, (NW2L), 2yo, 1 1/16m (off turf), 1:44.32, gd, 11 3/4 lengths.
NEXT (c, 2, Not This Time–Bahia Beach {MSP, $141,104}, by Awesome Again), a midfield sixth when favored on his June 14 debut over the Woodbine synthetic, shed the blinkers and fought his way to a half-length graduation sprinting at Kentucky Downs Sept. 16. The 9-5 second favorite broke running and settled nicely up front through fractions of :23.67 and :47.52 with token pressure to his outside. Rated along on the turn, the gray displayed a strong kick when set down into the short stretch and he widened with every stride to cross the line an 11 3/4-length winner. Favored Eucharist (Flatter) sat a three-wide trip and held for second while covering 54 feet (nearly six lengths) more than the winner, according to Trakus. Next counts Grade II winner Relaxing Rhythm (Easy Goer) as his third dam and is the last listed produce for Bahia Beach. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $96,894. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.
O/B-Silverton Hill LLC (KY); T-Wesley A Ward.

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Taking Stock: Fifth-Year Stallions and Brody’s Cause

Much has been made lately in Kentucky on farms reducing stud fees in response to the blighted economy, but there’s a group of stallions whose fees would have mostly dropped as a matter of course even in booming times. These are second- through fifth-year stallions; frequently, fees for horses entering their fifth season at stud as their first-crop runners turn three show particularly pronounced drops from their initial fees.

A small commercial breeder contacted me the other day to discuss the reduced 2021 stud fee for a stallion whose first crop is racing at two now. She noted how well the stallion matches her mare on pedigree and physique and the 50% reduction in fee from his first year at stud but worried that “his first 2-year-olds are not yet lighting the racetrack on fire, and his sales figures plummeted this year.”

This is a common dilemma for breeders and stud farms alike. Farms need to price fifth-year horses caught in this tricky bubble attractively enough to attract breeders in order to keep both groups in the game on stallions whose long-term viability in Kentucky will be determined in the next year or two. One false move in pricing could spell commercial disaster for one, the other, or both.

And it’s not just pricing, either, as I told this breeder. “You’d be breeding in his fifth year at stud. You’ll have 5-year-olds, 4-year-olds, 3-year-olds, and 2-year-olds [racing] when you sell [your yearling], so you’d have to really like him, because if they are not successful, it will be tough. And even if they are successful, there’s a ceiling [on price] unless he turns into Curlin.”

Curlin, who’d entered stud at Lane’s End in 2009 for a $75,000 fee, got his first winner in the most dreaded of places–the Central Moscow Hippodrome in Russia, on June 17, 2012. He finished the year ninth on the freshman sire list with no 2-year-old stakes winners to his credit and stood for $25,000 in 2013–his fifth year at stud. The stallion’s yearling average in 2012 was $70,000 versus $137,000 in 2011 for his first-crop yearlings. However, the Horse of the Year eventually turned things around, and by 2015, when his first crop was five, his yearlings averaged $211,000. Curlin will stand for $175,000 in 2021, the same as this year. His 2020 yearlings to date have averaged $342,000.

Stallions with first-crop 3-year-olds next year can change perceptions quickly with a few early-season stakes winners, particularly if they’re on the Classic trail, guaranteeing patronage for another year or two by finishing out the season strong with two crops–3-year-old and 2-year-olds–at the races.

Daredevil did some of this in 2020 with Gl Preakness S. and GI Alabama S. winner Swiss Skydiver and Gl Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil after a poor run with his first 2-year-olds, but by then he’d already been jettisoned from Kentucky after only four seasons at stud.

However, it’s the rare stallion that can carry that momentum forward, because he’ll need to do it with mares of decreasing quality in years two, three, and four. Most stallions tend to have their highest output of stakes winners from their first crop, when they get their best mares, and numbers tend to decrease commensurately with a decrease in mare quality.

I noted in this space Feb. 27 (Third- And Fourth-Year Sire Issues) that of the top 10 freshman sires of 2017, five had left Kentucky by 2020–when their first foals were five–including the leader, Overanalyze, along with Shanghai Bobby (#3), Animal Kingdom (#4), Flat Out (#7), and Justin Phillip (#10).

Brody’s Cause

A strong opinion on a horse, formed by an analysis of facts and an evaluation of price versus the competition, is the best way to approach a fifth-year stallion.

For example, Spendthrift’s multiple Grade l winner Brody’s Cause (Giant’s Causeway), a $350,000 yearling purchase for Albaugh Family Stables trained by Dale Romans, will stand in 2021, his fifth year, for $5,000, down from the $12,500 he started out at in 2017 and the $7,500 he was listed at this year. He is ninth on the freshman sire list through today behind leader Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway), another Albaugh horse whose fee has jumped to $40,000 in 2021 from an initial $15,000 in 2017 and the $12,500 in 2020.

However, Brody’s Cause has eye-opening stats versus the competition and at the price.

Both Not This Time and Brody’s Cause are each represented by two black-type winners so far–the most among freshman sires, along with Nyquist (Uncle Mo), whose 2021 fee is $75,000; and Outwork (Uncle Mo), who stands next year for $15,000.

Brody’s Cause is also tied with Not This Time and Nyquist in the top 10 by number of black-type runners with four apiece, but he’s done this from 55 foals to 95 for Not This Time and 80 for Nyquist.

As for the quality of his runners, five of his six winners have won maiden special weights while another, the Bob Baffert-trained filly Kalypso, won for the first time in the Listed Anoakia S. Oct. 18 at Santa Anita after placing in two Del Mar maiden special weights. Kalypso, by the way, was a $240,000 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling.

On the same day of Kalypso’s win, the gelding Gospel Way ran second in the Listed Display S. at Woodbine–his second stakes placing after a third in the Victoria S. at the same track.

Earlier this month, Brody’s Cause showcased another talented maiden winner. A $185,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling for Albaugh and Romans, Smiley Sobotka graduated at Keeneland in his second start in the style of a horse who looks to have a bigger future next year at three. The colt had dead-heated for second in his debut at Ellis over 6 1/2 furlongs but found the mile and a sixteenth at Keeneland much more to his liking.

This brings me to Sittin On Go, Brody’s Cause’s most accomplished runner to date. A $65,000 Keeneland November weanling and $62,000 Keeneland September RNA, he also races for Albaugh and is trained by Romans. Sittin On Go won his debut at Ellis in a five-furlong dirt sprint by four-plus lengths in mid-August and returned last month in the one-mile Glll Iroquois S. at Churchill to win impressively by 2 1/2 lengths. The runner up, Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow), ran third in his next start in the GI Champagne S. at Belmont, though he was beaten by more than 14 lengths by the leader of the division, Jackie’s Warrior (Maclean’s Music). However, the third-place finisher in the Iroquois, Super Stock (Dialed In), also came back to place third to Essential Quality (Tapit) in the Gl Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, less than five lengths behind the winner.

Sittin On Go has solid Grade l formlines, and he will test Jackie’s Warrior in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile next.

Brody’s Cause has one other stakes horse, Girther. A $2,500 Keeneland November weanling, $4,000 Keeneland September yearling, and $20,000 OBS March 2-year-old, Girther won a Del Mar maiden special weight in July in his second start and came back a month later at the same venue to run a neck second to Weston (Hit It a Bomb, also at Spendthrift) in the Gll Best Pal S.

Brody’s Cause won three of eight starts, including the Breeders’ Futurity at two and the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at three, both at Keeneland, and earned $1,168,138. His sire Giant’s Causeway doesn’t yet have an elite son in North America, but he did in Europe with Shamardal, who died earlier this year. Here, he has the good First Samurai at Claiborne plus several others trying to rise to that level, but in Not This Time and Brody’s Cause he’s still got his name in the hat with two promising young guns, and who knows?

Spendthrift’s flagship horse Into Mischief also started off for $12,500, dropped to $7,500, and is now booked full at $225,000. And the farm’s elder statesman, Malibu Moon, began his career at Country Life in Maryland for $3,000 and went on to sire a GI Kentucky Derby winner among many others of note.

My advice to the small breeder looking for value at $15,000 and down? For the price, Brody’s Cause is worth the gamble.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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