not this time | Horse Racing Free Tips

Not This Time Filly Becomes Newest SW for Fast-Starting Freshman

Vacay dominated in her stakes debut Sunday to become her fast-starting freshman sire (by Giant’s Causeway)’s third black-type winner. A 1 3/4-length first up winner in the Belmont slop Oct. 16, she was backed down to favoritism and soon showed why. The dark bay broke with the pack from her outside five post and settled in second last while always off the fence. Scrubbed on to hold her position into the bend, she mounted a wide bid into a :45.89 half and bounded past rivals over the top en route to a convincing success.

“She’s a nice filly,” said winning rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. “She looks like she can go a little further. I was trying to hold her position and as soon as we were turning for home, I asked her, and she took off.”

Trainer Todd Pletcher added, “I thought it was a very professional performance on her part. She didn’t break great in her first start, but broke better today. She finished up the way you would want one to. She’s a quality filly and it looks like she’ll handle more distance as well.

“We always liked her quite a bit. She gives me the impression she’s going to improve even more when we stretch her out a little bit.”

Pletcher said Vacay would likely remain in New York for the winter: “That’s the most likely plan. I’ll talk it over with the connections but I would like to take advantage of the New York-bred status.”

The winner has a yearling full-brother. Her dam was bred to Khozan for 2021.

KEY CENTS S., $97,000, Aqueduct, 11-15, (S), 2yo, f, 6f, 1:11.69, ft.
1–VACAY, 120, f, 2, by Not This Time
                1st Dam: Florida Sun, by Belgravia
                2nd Dam: Wildcat Widow, by Forest Wildcat
                3rd Dam: Open Window, by Trempolino
($100,000 Ylg ’19 SARAUG). 1ST BLACK-TYPE WIN. O-Repole
Stable & Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners; B-J Stables LLC (NY);
T-Todd A. Pletcher; J-Irad Ortiz, Jr. $55,000. Lifetime Record:
2-2-0-0, $83,600. *3rd black-type winner for sire (by Giant’s
Causeway).
2–Rossa Veloce, 120, f, 2, Girolamo–Spuntastic, by Hard Spun.
($12,000 Ylg ’19 FTKOCT). O-Blue Streak Racing, LLC &
Raymond Handal; B-John Scott Rogers (NY); T-Raymond
Handal. $20,000.
3–Party At Page’s, 122, f, 2, Gemologist–Auntgrace, by Lion
Heart. ($10,000 Ylg ’19 KEESEP). O-Gold Star Racing Stable,
Emcee Stable LLC & Brian McKenzie; B-T/C Stable, LLC (NY);
T-Jeremiah C. Englehart. $12,000.
Margins: 5HF, 1 3/4, HF. Odds: 1.55, 6.80, 3.25.
Also Ran: Chasing Cara, Shanes Pretty Lady.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

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Taking Stock: Yearling Averages and Unproven Sires

The bloodstock industry in Kentucky is heavily weighted to the commercial marketplace, and when the first yearlings of a stallion sell well, sometimes even experienced commercial breeders can get momentarily caught up in the euphoria. A breeder called me after the Fasig-Tipton October Sale to say that he was going to breed to such a stallion next year. That’s great, I told him, if he had a strong opinion on the horse, but I reminded him that he breeds to sell and he’d be breeding to a fourth-year sire, meaning that when he sold the resulting fourth-crop yearling, the stallion would have 4-year-olds racing. That sobered him up quickly after he digested the years, because he knew that if the sire wasn’t successful by then, his yearling would get hammered in the ring.

Here’s an actual example to illustrate the phenomenon: Will Take Charge’s (Unbridled’s Song) first-crop yearlings averaged $169,190 in 2017. He’d entered stud in 2015 for a $30,000 fee and when his first foals arrived in 2016 he again stood for $30,000. He was at the same fee in his third season at stud, when his first yearlings sold–and they were highly profitable for breeders versus the stud fee. In 2018, his second-crop yearlings averaged $140,149 with his first 2-year-olds at the track–his fourth year at stud, in which he also stood for $30,000. But in 2019, with his first runners now three, the stallion’s third-crop yearlings averaged just $29,882–less than the stud fee. This year, with 4-year-olds at the track, Will Take Charge’s fourth-crop yearlings, conceived on a $30,000 advertised fee, averaged $14,051, or less than half the stud fee.

This downward four-year progression of yearling averages is common, even for “successful” freshman sires. Will Take Charge was number five on the top 10 in 2018, but that promise wasn’t realized in 2019 with both 3-year-olds and 2-year-olds racing, or this year with three crops at the track, at least based on yearling averages.

The years can get confusing enough for experienced folks after the highs of a successful sale, with terms like first year at stud, first-crop yearlings, third-season sires, first-crop 2-year-olds, etc., floating around, so you can imagine what it’s like for less-experienced breeders, much less newbies. Meanwhile, stud farms, naturally, want to publicize the profitable sales of first-crop yearlings, and nowadays they tend to solicit breeders with this hype by offering discounted seasons for fourth-year sires to make them even more attractive.

However, in this hyper-commercial environment, there’s compelling evidence to suggest that most stud fees should drop in a stallion’s second year at stud, and here’s why: of the top 10 freshman sires of the last three years, second-crop yearling averages of 24 of these 30 sires (80%) declined versus their first-crop averages. Click here to view charts.

These charts are a retrospective look at yearling averages (only summer and fall yearlings; short yearlings are not included) of the 10 most successful freshman sires of 2018, 2019, and 2020 (to Nov. 1) by progeny earnings, and what they illustrate clearly is that racetrack success with first-crop 2-year-olds isn’t usually enough to lift prices of second-crop yearlings. Those stallions that didn’t make the top 10 suffered even more in this regard, as you can imagine. This, of course, explains why savvy commercial breeders will eagerly patronize an attractive first-year horse and shun the same horse in his second year at stud, when the upside chance of success in the ring isn’t worth the downside risk of failure on the track.

There are exceptions, of course. As noted, six of the 30 referenced stallions (20%) had upward movement in second-crop yearling averages versus first-crop averages. One of them was Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway), who has a trio in the Breeders’ Cup races this weekend, headed by Grade l winner Princess Noor. Not This Time’s first-crop yearling average was $67,352 last year (see chart 3), but this year his second-crop yearlings averaged $113,822, mostly on the strength of the quality and physiques of his early runners, including Princess Noor, who’d sold for $1.35-million at OBS this spring as a 2-year-old in training and then won the Gl Del Mar Debutante impressively a week before the Keeneland September sale, which was timely.

However, the case of Nyquist (Uncle Mo), who heads the top 10 this year and whose yearlings averaged $236,318 in 2019, is more the norm. He has been represented by two Grade l winners this year–one, Vequist, won the Gl Spinaway on the same day as the Del Mar Debutante–but his second-crop yearlings nonetheless averaged $165,773, down 30% from his first crop despite the success of Vequist before the September sale.

Furthermore, 16 of 19 stallions (84%; one died) had lower average prices with their third-crop yearlings than their second-crop yearlings (stallions in charts 1 and 2 combined). To more easily visualize this, I’ve included a row in bold type at the bottom of each chart that shows the age of the stallion’s first crop during the sales year of each subsequent crop of yearlings, because it’s the success or failure of that first crop of runners that’s so important to future viability as a stallion. This line might seem redundant, but without it as a handy reference I guarantee that you’d be doing the math in your head and frequently getting the numbers wrong, as the breeder who wanted to send a mare to a fourth-season sire did.

For our purposes, a fourth-season sire is equivalent to one with second-crop yearlings and first-crop runners, and that’s not easy to wrap your head around until you think about it.

In chart 1, for example, Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile) had first-crop yearlings sell in 2017 and third-crop yearlings sell in 2019, when his first crop was three. In his case, note that his second-crop yearling average in 2018, true to form, dropped to $110,100 from $150,786 (27%) when his first juveniles were at the track, and his third-crop average dropped further to $46,784 when he had 3-year-olds at the track. This year, with 4-year-olds racing, Cairo Prince’s fourth-crop yearling average stabilized at $47,601. In 2021, Cairo Prince will be serving his seventh book of mares, having entered stud in 2015.

Success on the track ultimately determines where a stallion’s yearling averages settle, and yearling averages for breeders in a commercial marketplace should have a healthy rather than toxic relationship to stud fee.

Downward Averages

The charts clearly explain several things at the same time–breeder preferences for first-year sires, downward yearling averages as a matter of norm–but most significantly they show why this happens: buyers won’t pay premiums for yearlings by sires who haven’t lit up the track with their first 2-year-olds, and prices tend to decrease with each subsequent crop if major racetrack success isn’t there.

In other words, in a commercial marketplace, it’s the buyers that drive yearling prices based on performance after the first crop of yearlings sell.

In the absence of performance–as is the case with first-crop yearlings–buyers will pay premiums based on a yearling’s sire’s race record, his dam’s pedigree, and his own physique. This is why attractive first-season sires usually get their best mares in the first of their four years at stud before their first 2-year-olds run, and it’s a pattern that will mostly reward a sire’s first-crop yearlings. Every crop of foals after the first crop will mostly get discounted in the sales ring by buyers.

If you understand this commercial paradigm, you’ll understand that limiting a stallion to 140 mares isn’t going to change the trajectory of yearling averages by crop. Buyers will still assess second-crop yearlings by first-crop 2-year-old performances, and so on. It will do a few things, though. For one, the most commercial first-year horses will see increases in stud fees. Second, more first-year stallions will be given chances at stud, but in the end they’ll all suffer the same fates as stallions do now as long as the current commercial model exists.

And this model isn’t favorable for an overwhelming number of horses after their first-crop yearlings sell, as these charts so aptly illustrate.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Juvenile Notes: Classier ‘Could Be A Superstar,’ Diodoro Confident In Longshot Pair

Classier – Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert called the decision to enter Classier in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile a bold move. The Empire Maker colt has made just one start, but he was impressive, breaking his maiden by 4 four lengths Oct. 24 at Santa Anita.

Baffert and the ownership group of six partners elected to try Classier in the Juvenile, which has never been won by a horse in its second career start. Two weeks after his facile 6 ½-furlong victory, he will be trying two turns for the first time at 1 1/16 miles.

“He's lightly raced, but he could be a superstar,” Baffert said. “It's a tough race.”

Classier shipped from California with the rest of the Baffert runners Tuesday. He galloped a mile over the Keeneland main track Wednesday morning, ridden by exercise rider Erick Garcia.

Bred by Mary Sullivan, who rarely sells her young horses and races as Sullimar Stable, she decided to offer this colt out of Class Will Tell at the 2019 Keeneland September yearling sale. He was acquired for $775,000 by the partners SF Racing, Starlight Racing and Madaket Stables. Three other investors have since come on board: Golconda Stables, Siena Farm and Robert Masterson.

Classier and jockey Florent Geroux will leave from post eight in the 14-horse field.

Baffert has won the Juvenile four times, one shy of the record held by D. Wayne Lukas. Baffert's most recent win came in 2018 with Game Winner.

Dreamer's Disease/Keepmeinmind – Cypress Creek and Arnold Bennewith's Dreamer's Disease and Keepmeinmind have brought trainer Robertino Diodoro back to the World Championships for the first time since his initial starter Broadway Empire finished ninth in the Dirt Mile at Santa Anita.

Both runners are listed at 30-1 on the morning line with Keepmeinmind breaking from post six under Jose Ortiz and Dreamer's Disease from post 10 with David Cohen.

“The six is perfect for Keepmeinmind,” Diodoro said. “The 10 for Dreamer's Disease; I don't mind that. All the speed is to the inside of us and I like that better than having it to the outside.”

Keepmeinmind is winless in two starts, the first in an off-the-turf race at Churchill Downs and then a runner-up finish in the Breeders' Futurity Oct. 3 at Keeneland. Dreamer's Disease has won two of four starts with one victory each on dirt and turf.

“Dreamer's Disease does both,” Diodoro said. “He loved Ellis Park but didn't care for that course at Kentucky Downs. With Keepmeinmind, the way he is training on dirt, turf is not in the near future as we plan to go to Oaklawn (which does not have a turf course) in the spring.”

But that is down the road. First things first on Friday.

“I'd like to see Dreamer's Disease at the half-mile pole a length in front,” Diodoro said. “We are going (to the lead) at all costs. Keepmeinmind … I'd like to see him get a good trip.”

The competition is one thing Diodoro is not concerned about.

“You start studying too much and you start second guessing yourself,” Diodoro said. “With two horses, I just worry about them feeling good and staying happy. I know what our strategy is and I can't change that.”

Essential Quality – Godolphin LLC's undefeated Essential Quality schooled in the gate and galloped 1 ½m and he continues to impress his trainer Brad Cox heading into Friday's Juvenile.

“He was great (this morning),” Cox said. “He was very professional. I couldn't ask for him to be doing better.”

Essential Quality enters the Juvenile off his maiden victory and a win in the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. Cox feels he's capable of more.

“I really do believe he's maturing all the time,” Cox said. “When (jockey) Luis (Saez) came back after that last race, he said 'he's a machine, but he has a lot to learn.' I do think he's continuing the education process. I do think he'll move forward and he'll need to move forward. It's a solid race, deep field. He does have the experience here and he's a very talented horse.”

Jackie's Warrior/Calibrate – J. Kirk and Judy Robison's Jackie's Warrior, the 7-5 favorite, continues to make a favorable impression as he attempts to extend his unbeaten record to five.

“Very happy with him,” trainer Steve Asmussen said. “He's training wonderfully. It's a race with 14 2-year-olds, so we'll see what happens and go from there. Jackie's Warrior got a good post (post seven), but I was disappointed with Calibrate's draw (14).”

Next – Silverton Hill Farm's Wesley Ward-trained Next has raced on three surfaces in as many starts. A son of 2016 Juvenile runner-up Not This Time, he was sixth on debut over Woodbine's all-weather in June before winning a Kentucky Downs turf maiden Sept. 16. He returned on Oct. 24 at Keeneland and manhandled an allowance field by 11¾ lengths.

A good-looking gray colt, he wheels back on 13 days' rest and drew post 11 of 14. He will also be jockey Gerardo Corrales' first Breeders' Cup mount.

“He's coming back on short rest, which is always a negative for me, but he's feeling really good and I see no reason not to go,” Ward said.

“Looking at the numbers, he fits, plus it's our home track, so we're going to take a shot.”

Not This Time is currently the second-leading freshman sire, narrowly trailing 2015 Juvenile winner Nyquist.

Reinvestment Risk – A breakout winner this summer on debut at Saratoga, Klaravich Stables' Chad Brown-trained Reinvestment Risk enters the Juvenile as one of the key contenders challenging heavy favorite Jackie's Warrior. The son of Upstart—who was third in the 2014 Juvenile—has literally chased Jackie's Warrior in two subsequent Grade 1 starts, finishing second in both the Hopeful and Champagne over 7f and 8f. He steps up to 1 1/16 m and stretches out to two turns in another rematch on Friday, while breaking from post three of 14.

“I think this horse is looking for just a little more distance and some pace,” Brown said. “Additionally, I don't think he handled the Belmont track well in the Champagne. He wasn't moving the same on it, although he has come back and worked well on that track, when held together. I just think that moving forward, running in a big race like this and on a fresh track like Keeneland will serve him well.”

Brown seeks his second Juvenile victory, having won with Good Magic in 2017, while Klaravich Stables won the 2018 Juvenile Fillies Turf with Newspaperofrecord and 2019 Longines Turf with Bricks and Mortar.

Rombauer – John and Diane Fradkin's Rombauer, who has been galloping on the main track at Keeneland for the past three mornings under Osman Cedeno, punched his ticket to the Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance with a runner-up effort in the American Pharoah at Santa Anita.

“I thought the American Pharoah came up a little light numbers-wise,” trainer Michael McCarthy said of moving Rombauer from the turf where he made his first two starts to the dirt. “He had trained well and eaten some dirt behind horses in the morning. He had a wide trip (in the American Pharoah) but finished well.”

Rombauer drew post 13 for the 1 1/16m Juvenile, the same distance as the American Pharoah. Javier Castellano has the mount.

“Thirteen of 14 … he's not going to be part of the pace early anyway,” McCarthy said.

Sittin On Go – Albaugh Racing Stables' Sittin On Go was not exactly impressive when he first arrived at trainer Dale Romans' barn but that changed as his training advanced.

“He was under the radar until we started breezing him further distances at Churchill Downs,” Romans said. “He is a big, long striding horse and he just never gets tired.”

The son of Brody's Cause confirmed his ability by winning his career debut at Ellis Park on Aug. 16. He took his unbeaten streak to two by winning the Iroquois at Churchill Downs on Sept 5.

Albaugh Family Stables also campaigned Brody's Cause, who finished third in the 2015 Juvenile at Keeneland. The outfit purchased Sittin On Go for $65,000 as a weanling at the 2018 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. They offered him the following year at Keeneland's September Yearling Sale but he was listed as not sold on a final bid of $62,000.

Sittin On Go galloped 1 ½ m at Keeneland Wednesday morning.

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Unknown Commodities: Mark Casse On Bringing Freshman-Sired Runners Into The Breeders’ Cup

Though we can certainly start to form opinions on the talent and preferences of freshman sires by the fall, no stallion's resume is completely written heading into their first crop's Breeders' Cup.

Up to this point, even the most prolific freshman sires only have a small sampling of horses at the distances and class levels seen during the championship races. Though it can help guide a narrative, a strong or poor performance by one or two runners from a debut crop on one day at a single track does not engrave a sire's capability for putting out a precocious foal.

Trainer Mark Casse has two runners by freshman sires entered in this year's Breeders' Cup races for 2-year-olds, meaning he will be part of the real-time focus group learning about their sires' abilities with the rest of the world. Casse will send Gretzky the Great, by Nyquist, to the Juvenile Turf; and Dirty Dangle, by Not This Time, to the Juvenile Turf Sprint.

This is not to say, though, that Casse is going into these races completely blind to how his runners will perform. Aside from the obvious factors of hands-on experience and the horses' own past performance, the trainer prides himself in doing his homework when it comes to pedigree research.

“At the end of every day, I go through and look at the charts at every major racetrack, and I make mental notes of what sires are doing well on different surfaces,” he said. “I pay a lot of attention, too, to damsires. I'm big on buying out of certain damsires.”

Gretzky the Great flies the banner for sire Nyquist, a member of Darley's stallion roster in Lexington, Ky.

Nyquist was himself part of the record-setting freshman crop for sire Uncle Mo. Both Nyquist and Uncle Mo snagged Eclipse Awards as champion 2-year-old male after winning their respective editions of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, giving plenty of evidence that Nyquist's foals would be early types.

That has proven out thus far, with Nyquist siring a pair of Grade 1 winners heading into Novemver, making him the only North American freshman sire with more than one graded stakes winner. Nyquist's other Grade 1 winner this season was Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies contender Vequist, who took the G1 Spinaway Stakes earlier this year.

Gretzky the Great added himself to that list when he won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine on Sept. 20, clinching a “Win and You're In” berth to the Juvenile Turf in the process. The Ontario-bred has raced exclusively at Woodbine, breaking his maiden in his second start, then taking the listed Soaring Free Stakes before moving on to the Summer.

“We had high hopes on him from the beginning, but I think he's just gotten bigger, and better, and he's thriving,” Casse said. “He looks tremendous. He moves over the ground great. I believe if you can go a mile at Woodbine with that long stretch, you can pretty well go a mile anywhere. I think the two turns will actually be a benefit for him. He's got enough speed, he's going to be fairly close as long as he breaks well, and I think he'll really like this turf course.”

Nyquist raced exclusively on dirt during his own on-track career, and while Gretzky the Great's dam Pearl Turn started her career in Ireland, all of her wins came over the dirt after returning to the U.S.

Casse said the decision to start Gretzky the Great on the turf was part of his overarching program with his Ontario-based 2-year-olds.

“The pedigree obviously is extremely important, but that's what we do as trainers; we try different things,” he said. “With Gretzky the Great, our Grade 1 race for 2-year-olds is the Summer, so I try to get my horses to at least give them a chance on the grass. It turns out the Nyquists can do anything.”

Nyquist leads a tight race as the leading freshman sire by progeny earnings, with $1,108,381. Tracking closely behind him in second is Taylor Made Stallions' Not This Time, with $1,053,867.

Not This Time will be represented in Casse's barn by Juvenile Turf Sprint contender Dirty Dangle, who is unbeaten in two starts, both at Woodbine.

The filly enters the Juvenile Turf Sprint off a 1 1/4-length closing score in the Woodbine Cares Stakes on Sept. 19. She won on debut over Woodbine's all-weather main track in her debut.

“We purchased her after her last race, so I didn't have the privilege of training her before, but her race on turf at Woodbine was extremely good,” Casse said. “That's what made us purchase her.”

Dirty Dangle now races for Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Gary Barber, the same connections that campaign Gretzky the Great.

Not This Time's freshman runners are led by probable Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies favorite Princess Noor, who brought $1.35 million at auction earlier this year, and has gone undefeated in three starts, including a 6 1/2-length score in the G1 Del Mar Debutante Stakes and an 8 1/4-length drubbing of the Chandelier Stakes.

Like Nyquist, Not This Time was a fast-starting 2-year-old during his own time on the racetrack, winning the G3 Iroquois Stakes leading into a runner-up finish in the 2016 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

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