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Derby Dreams Come In Due Time

The GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. offers the last round of qualifying points for the GI Kentucky Derby on May 7 and the connections of GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth runner-up In Due Time (Not This Time) are still Derby dreaming.

Their 3-year-old chestnut colt has never been off the board in his four career starts and has already earned 20 qualifying points from his second-place finish in the Fountain of Youth. He would still need the 20 points awarded to the Lexington S. winner in order to get a chance at seeing the Kentucky Derby starting gate, but trainer Kelly Breen is confident going into Saturday's race.

“We've had some not-so-great weather here at Keeneland, but he has adapted well,” Breen said. “Last week he breezed at Keeneland over a track labeled muddy. It wasn't the fastest of workouts, it was just a maintenance, but since he's been here he has been doing well.”

With Paco Lopez aboard, In Due Time drew post two in a field of 11 entered in the 1 1/16-mile contest.

“We'll leave it up to Paco,” Breen said when asked how he would like to see the race to play out. “Ideally I'd like to see him forwardly placed because if we ask him for speed, I think he will have the speed. I'd rather not see him get trapped in, but he ran well in a race where he came from off the pace and stayed on the rail saving ground. Whatever it's going to be, we're in Paco's hands.”

In Due Time was a $95,000 2-year-old purchase for Edge Racing, a spinoff of MyRacehorse designed to replicate a more traditional racing partnership. Edge Racing's Joe Moran and Nick Hines picked out the colt at the 2021 OBS April Sale after their partnership enjoyed success that same year with another son of Not This Time, Yes This Time.

“Yes this Time was Edge Racing's second purchase overall, so we had a little bit of comfort there in going with another Not This Time,” Moran explained. “In Due Time just looked like an athlete to us and we got him at an affordable price.”

In Due Time was sent to Breen's barn at Monmouth Park where he was stabled next to none other than Yes This Time.

“They were two peas in a pod,” Breen said. “They were both just happy to be around.”

Yes This Time won the GIII Kent S. at Delaware Park in July and just a few weeks later, In Due Time broke his maiden on debut.

Breen opted to give the colt time off after the win and he resurfaced at Gulfstream in January. He ran third coming off the layoff in a six-furlong allowance, but flourished when given added distance in his next start going a mile, traveling from mid-pack to get the win by almost six lengths.

“He is a horse that thrives for a little bit more distance,” Breen explained. “It was only a one-turn mile, but he showed his ability to relax and rate and he had a pretty good punch.”

The flashy win caught the eye of several more racing partnerships and before the colt's next start, Medallion Racing and Parkland Thoroughbreds had also joined in the ownership.

In Due Time finished second in an eventful GII Fountain of Youth, where his rider Paco Lopez was later suspended for 14 days for careless riding after In Due Time shifted out in the stretch and two jockeys were unseated from their mounts. Breen chose to give his trainee additional recovery time after seeing how the colt came out of the Derby prep.

“It was the first time where I saw that he was a little tired,” Breen said. “He did bounce back within 48 hours, but he's a very on, sort of motivated horse and he was a little knocked out after the race. I know if we were to run well in the Lexington that it's only three weeks until the Derby, but the extended time that he had in between his last race and this race is going to help him perform better.”

In Due Time will be well-supported on Saturday with 25 owners, along with their friends and family, cheering him on at Keeneland.

“We have people coming in from California, Florida, New York and Chicago so it's really cool to see all these people meet up all due to one horse,” Moran said. “Any time we get to compete in these big races–and fingers crossed a win could get us in the Derby– there's nothing more fun than that and to celebrate with more people is even better.”

Perhaps as an added bit of luck, Edge Racing has a second starter at Keeneland this weekend. Escape Route (Hard Spun) was the partnership's first purchase in 2020 and ships in from California to run in the finale on Saturday's card.

Edge Racing was launched in November of 2020 with the goal providing a more in-depth experience for owners buying into a larger ownership stake.

“Edge Racing is more like your traditional syndicate,” Moran explained. “95% of our owners started with MyRacehorse and it's cool to see them take that next step forward. This is our first journey on the Derby trail and it's exciting to be able to do it after such a short period of time.”

Kelly Breen is no stranger to the Triple Crown trail, with his top runners including 2011 GI Belmont S. winner Ruler on Ice (Roman Ruler) and 2011 Kentucky Derby contender and MGSW Pants on Fire (Jump Start), but he can't hide his excitement at the prospect of another Kentucky Derby starter.

“It's been a few years since I have been back,” he admitted. “My kids have never asked about races before, but they are asking if we are we going to the Derby this year. There is nothing here in Kentucky like the Kentucky Derby. Regardless of if we make it to the Derby or not, I believe that he's a nice horse and we'd like to have some fun with him and run in some nice races.”

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Taking Stock: Young Stallions Dominate Derby Points Leaders

Led by Three Chimneys's Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}), young stallions with either first- or second-crop representatives account for 11 of the 20 leading point getters for the GI Kentucky Derby, and quite a few of these stallions, Gun Runner included, have the top 12 leading points earners for the GI Longines Kentucky Oaks as well.

First-Crop 3-year-olds

Gun Runner, whose first crop is three, has, incredibly, sired four individual Grade I winners so far, the latest of which is Zedan Racing's remarkable Taiba, who won the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby Saturday in only his second lifetime start. A $1.7-million purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Florida Select 2-year-olds in training sale, Taiba has earned 100 Derby points, tying him for fifth place on the list with Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}) and Gold Square's Cyberknife (Gun Runner), a $400,000 purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearlings Showcase who won the Gl Arkansas Derby the weekend before. Gun Runner is also represented by Klaravich Stables's Early Voting, who lost Saturday for the first time in three starts when second by a neck to Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) in the GII Wood Memorial S. Early Voting, who has 50 points, was a $200,000 Keeneland September yearling.

Among filles, Gun Runner has the undefeated Grade I winner Echo Zulu, last year's champion 2-year-old filly, with 130 points for the Oaks (as well as Shotgun Hottie, outside the top 12 with 41 points). A $300,000 Keeneland September yearling who races for L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds, Echo Zulu is second only to Kathleen O. with 150 points.

Echo Zulu won her season debut in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks by a nose from Hidden Connection (Connect), a Grade III winner at two from the first crop of Lane's Ends's Connect (Curlin)–also the sire of 2-year-old Grade I winner Rattle N Roll, sixth most recently in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. An $85,000 OBS June 2-year-old racing for Hidden Brook Farm and Black Type Thoroughbreds, Hidden Connection has 57 points for the Oaks, which puts her among the leading 12.

Juddmonte's late Arrogate (Unbridled's Song) hasn't dazzled like Gun Runner, but his first-crop daughter Secret Oath is one of the best 3-year-old fillies in the country. She was third last out in the Arkansas Derby to Cyberknife and prior to that had dominated fillies at Oaklawn, including a 7 1/2-length score in the GIII Honeybee S. A homebred for Briland Farm, Secret Oath has 80 points for the Oaks, but note that Yuugiri (Shackleford), who won the GIII Fantasy at Oaklawn when Secret Oath took on the boys and has 114 points for the Oaks, was a well-beaten third in the Honeybee.

Coolmore America's Cupid (Tapit) is the sire of first-crop daughter Desert Dawn, an Arizona-bred who won the GII Santa Anita Oaks Saturday by a neck from the previously undefeated Adare Manor (Uncle Mo). She has 108 points for the Oaks and is a homebred for H and E Ranch.
GIII Gotham S. winner Morello (Classic Empire) lost for the first time in four starts in the Wood Memorial after a bad start, finishing sixth, and will reportedly not head to the Derby. Nevertheless, the first-crop son of Coolmore America's Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile) has 50 Derby points and races for Blue Lion Thoroughbreds, Craig Taylor, and Diamond T. Racing. He was a $250,000 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old.

Second-Crop 3-year-olds

Taylor Made's Not This Time (Giant's Causeway) is the sire of GII Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter, who leads all colts with 164 points for the Derby. Epicenter races for Winchell Thoroughbreds and was a $260,000 Keeneland September buy. Not This Time, who had his second top-level winner Saturday when first-crop 4-year-old filly Just One Time won the GI Madison S., is also represented by GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. winner Simplification, with 74 points. Simplification, who was third in the GI Curlin Florida Derby Saturday, races for Tami Bobo and was a $50,000 RNA at Keeneland November as a weanling. Both Epicenter and Simplification, by the way, are from Candy Ride mares–which is the reverse cross of Gun Runner, who is by Candy Ride from a Giant's Causeway mare.

Airdrie's Upstart (Flatter) has been a revelation this season. He's the sire of Jeff Drown's Zandon, a $170,000 Keeneland September yearling who won the Blue Grass Saturday and sits second on the Derby-points list with 114 behind Epicenter. Upstart is also the sire of Winngate's Kathleen O., a $275,000 OBS April 2-year-old who is undefeated in four starts and won the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks earlier this month.

Like Upstart, Darley's Nyquist (Uncle Mo) has contenders for both the Derby and Oaks with second-crop 3-year-olds. The Derby-winning stallion's son Slow Down Andy, a homebred for Reddam Racing, won the GIII Sunland Park Derby at the end of March and has 60 Derby points. Nyquist's filly Turnerloose likewise has 60 points for the Oaks. Owned by Ike and Dawn Thrash, Turnerloose won the GII Rachel Alexandra S. in February and most recently was fourth in the Fair Grounds Oaks behind Echo Zulu and Hidden Connection. The Thrashes purchased Turnerloose for $50,000 at Keeneland September.

Claiborne's resurgent Runhappy (Super Saver) is the sire of Smile Happy, with 70 points. A $185,000 purchase from the Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearlings Showcase, Smile Happy races in the colors of Lucky Seven Stable and was a Grade II winner last year. In two starts this season, Smile Happy was second in both the Blue Grass and the GII Risen Star S.

Hit It a Bomb (War Front), who stands at Spendthrift, is the sire of Magdalena Racing's Tiz the Bomb, winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. He sold for $330,000 at the same Fasig-Tipton select sale as Smile Happy and Cyberknife and has 110 points.

The late Laoban (Uncle Mo), who started his stud career at Sequel in New York and was later transferred to WinStar in Kentucky, is the sire of Cypress Creek Equine's and Whispering Oaks Farm's Un Ojo, winner of the GII Rebel S. Un Ojo, a one-eyed gelding, was most recently off the board in the Arkansas Derby but has 54 points for the Derby.

Among the filles, Crestwood's Firing Line (Line of David) is represented by Venti Valentine, owned by NY Final Furlong Racing and Parkland Thoroughbreds. Bred by NY Final Furlong and Maspeth Stable, the homebred won the GII Demoiselle S. last year and was second Saturday in the GIII Gazelle S. Venti Valentine has 94 points for the Oaks.

The 11 colts by these sires are Taiba, Cyberknife, Early Voting, Morello, Epicenter, Simplification, Smile Happy, Slow Down Andy, Zandon, Tiz the Bomb, and Un Ojo. If you subtract the Japanese entrant–Crown Pride–that's 11 of 19, and if you add in four third-crop 3-year-olds with points in the top 20, then 15 of 19, or an astonishing 79% of the top domestic points earners for the Kentucky Derby this year, were conceived by stallions which had no runners at the time of conception.

Who are the sires of the third-crop 3-year-olds? Exported former Spendthrift stallion Race Day (Tapit) is the sire of White Abarrio, winner of the Florida Derby with 112 points, and Barber Road, second in the Arkansas Derby, with 58 points. Coolmore America's Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) is represented by Forbidden Kingdom, who, until a last-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, was one of the leading hopes in California with 50 points. And Airdrie's Summer Front (War Front) is the sire of Summer Is Tomorrow, the second-place finisher in the G2 UAE Derby, with 40 points.

That's quite an endorsement for those that patronize or buy weanlings, yearlings, or 2-year-olds by unproven horses. And this isn't necessarily a fluke, either. A year ago, I wrote this piece, “First-Crop Success in Classics,” that examined the sires of U.S. Classic winners from 2001 to 2020 and noted that close to 50% of them were from either the first or second crops of their respective sires.
The four North American-breds by proven sires with Derby points are Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), with 112; Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway), with 66; Messier (Empire Maker), with 40; and Zozos (Munnings), with 40.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Just One Time Up In Time in Madison

Just One Time (Not This Time) took her career to the next level with her first Grade I score in Keeneland's Madison S. Saturday. Away without incident after being pounded down to 2-1 favoritism late, the lightly raced PA-bred sat towards the back as Lady Rocket (Tale of the Cat) and Kimari (Munnings) knocked heads with longshot Club Car (Malibu Moon) through a snappy first quarter in :22.11. Just One Time has just one beat, Bell's the One (Majesticperfection), as the favorites continued their battle through a :44.50 half-mile. That Grade I winner launched her rally first approaching the far turn with Just One Time four wide to her outside and just off her heels. Lady Rocket and Kimari continued to throw it down in early stretch, but Bell's the One was coming on strongly with Just One Time going even better behind her. Bell's the One hit the front in the final sixteenth, but Just One Time mowed her down in the final strides to win by 3/4 of a length. Kimari bested Lady Rocket for third.

“It worked out today,” trainer Brad Cox said. “Obviously, there was a hot pace up front, but it's not ideal. We'd like to break and be a little more involved. That's how she was before she came to us. We put a starting gate blanket on her today, and honestly it didn't help her a whole lot getting away from there.”

“I was hoping to get a good break and get myself into the race,” Flavien Prat said. “Unfortunately, she broke a bit flat-footed so we went to Plan B and she ran really well in the stretch.”

Kicking off her career with a pair of wins last spring, including Presque Isle's PA-bred Malvern Rose S., Just One Time failed to fire next out in that venue's Lady Erie S. in August. Dominating an allowance on the Penn National dirt in September, she was equally dominant in that venue's state-bred New Start S. Oct. 22 in her final start for trainer Michael Salvaggio, Jr. Bought into by Commonwealth New Era Racing, Just One Time was transferred to Cox and captured Gulfstream's GII Inside Information S. in her first start for that barn Jan. 29.

Pedigree Notes:

Just One Time is the second Grade I winner for red-hot young sire Not This Time, following 'TDN Rising Star' Princess Noor. She is one of six graded winners for that Taylor Made stallion and one of three this year with the other two being GII Louisiana Derby victor Epicenter and GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. scorer Simplification. The winner is also one of 18 black-type scorers for Not This Time. Just One Time marks six Grade I victors out of a daughter of Speightstown and is one of 17 graded winners and 42 black-type achievers for that broodmare sire. Chad Schumer picked up Ida Clark with Just One Time in utero for $45,000 at the 2017 KEENOV sale for Warriors Reward LLC. They bred her back to Outwork and sold her to McMahon & Hill Bloodstock for $60,000 in the 2019 KEEJAN sale. The resulting foal is a filly now named Hard Place, who was a $200,000 OBSMAR purchase by Spendthrift Farm. She has since produced a juvenile colt by Goldencents and a yearling filly by Runhappy. Ida Clark was bred back to Catholic Boy.

Saturday, Keeneland
MADISON S.-GI, $439,850, Keeneland, 4-9, 4yo/up, f/m, 7f, 1:22.79, my.
1–JUST ONE TIME, 123, f, 4, by Not This Time
                1st Dam: Ida Clark, by Speightstown
                2nd Dam: Eliza Donner, by Oh Say
                3rd Dam: Witch Wabbit, by Salem
1ST GRADE I WIN. O-Warriors Reward, LLC and Commonwealth New Era Racing; B-Warrior's Reward LLC (PA); T-Brad H. Cox; J-Flavien Prat. $235,600. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-6-0-0, $525,195. *1/2 to Black Stetson (More Than Ready), SW, $141,678. Werk Nick Rating: A. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Bell's the One, 123, m, 6, by Majesticperfection
                1st Dam: Street Mate, by Street Cry (Ire)
                2nd Dam: Day Mate, by Dayjur
                3rd Dam: Possible Mate, by King's Bishop
($155,000 Ylg '17 FTKJUL). O-Lothenbach Stables, Inc. (Bob Lothenbach); B-Bret Jones (KY); T-Neil L. Pessin. $95,000.
3–Kimari, 123, m, 5, by Munnings
                1st Dam: Cozze Up Lady (GSW, $407,169), by Cozzene
                2nd Dam: The White Lady, by Johannesburg
                3rd Dam: Maha Al Iman, by Pulpit
($152,000 Ylg '18 FTKJUL; $2,700,000 4yo '21 FTKNOV).
O-Westerberg Limited, Mrs. John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith and Michael B. Tabor; B-China Horse Club International Limited (KY); T-Wesley A. Ward. $47,500.
Margins: 3/4, 3, 1HF. Odds: 2.30, 5.60, 2.60.
Also Ran: Lady Rocket, Four Graces, Cilla, Club Car, Kalypso, Center Aisle. Scratched: Tiz Splendid News.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Pennsylvania’s Heroine Just One Time in Madison Stakes

A caravan of over 20 people made the 500-mile journey from central Pennsylvania to central Kentucky this week to watch star Pennsylvania-bred Just One Time (Not This Time) step up to Grade I company in Saturday's Madison S. at Keeneland.

“She has developed a bit of a following in Pennsylvania,” said Donnie Brown, who operates Warrior's Reward LLC with partner Tom McClay. “We wanted to get down early to visit a few farms in Lexington and go see her before race day. We have a group of people texting about when they're getting on the road and where they're staying, so we hope to have a nice Pennsylvania contingency there at Keeneland.”

Just One Time has been a bit of a celebrity in Pennsylvania since the day she was foaled. Warrior's Reward LLC purchased her dam Ida Clark (Speighstown) at the 2017 Keeneland November Sale for $45,000 with Just One Time in utero. The Not This Time filly arrived on Easter Sunday.

“We took the whole family over to see her,” Brown recalled. “From day one she had fans on and off the farm who thought she was a good-looking filly.”

Warrior's Reward LLC breeds almost exclusively to race, with a focus on producing Pennsylvania-breds, so the filly was slated to go to the racetrack from the start. She was sent to trainer Mike Salvaggio, who was high on her from the get-go, but Brown wasn't equally convinced until he heard an outside opinion.

“If we could tell ability based off half-mile works, we would all be geniuses,” Brown said with a laugh. “My partner and Mike always said she was going to be something special, but I didn't buy it until one of our other trainers called and asked if we owned a chestnut filly in Mike's barn. He had watched her train and said she was a nice horse.”

In May of her sophomore year, Just One Time won on debut at Penn National, but showed she had much to learn when she was rambunctious in the gate. She won her next start by over four lengths in the Malvern Rose S. at Presque Isle Downs, but her inexperience caught up with her when she accepted her first and only loss a month later in the Lady Erie S.

“Angel Rodriguez was up and he said after the race that he just couldn't slow her down,” Brown recalled. “They were wanting to go fast and he couldn't get her to rate. She didn't want to give up the lead.”

The chestnut filly returned to the winner's circle in her next two starts at Penn National, first an allowance race where she trounced the field by over six lengths, and then the New Start S., where afterwards Todd Mostoller inquired about buying into the filly for his Commonwealth New Era Racing.

“We struck a deal and he asked what we thought about going to the races outside of Pennsylvania,” Brown said. “I told him that the condition book and the filly are telling us we have to.”

Just One Time was sent to Brad Cox, where she received months of schooling and put in eight works before returning to the starting gate.

A young Just One Time | photo courtesy Donnie Brown

“Brad spent some time teaching her how to relax and be a more versatile racehorse,” Brown noted. “She was always wanting to beat anything that went by her and he got her to relax and slow down.”

The Cox barn was rewarded with their months of work when the filly made her first start against open company in the GII Inside Information S. on the GI Pegasus World Cup undercard. The 4-year-old was fractious in the gate and broke slow, but after traveling mid-pack throughout the race, she went four and five wide around the turn for home and flew to the wire to get the win.

“I remember [Joel] Rosario saying that she didn't like getting dirt in her face, so he decided to get her as wide as he could go and see what happened,” Brown explained. “Once he put her wide, she started running. She has learned something every time she runs. I think the biggest thing that we're realizing is that she's just so competitive.”

Just One Time's victory in the Inside Information marked Brown's first time in the winner's circle for a graded stakes as an owner.

“We got down two days early so we could meet Brad Cox and see her before the race,” Brown said. “What a great day that was, Pegasus Day at Gulfstream.”

Brown has been hearing only good things from Cox as the filly prepares for her start in the Madison S., but in the meantime he is closely following the progeny of Warrior's Reward, the Grade I-winning stallion his partnership owns. This year the son of Medaglia d'Oro is expecting his first crop of 2-year-olds since he arrived at WynOaks Farm in Pennsylvania in 2019.

“The first year he was here, he covered 115 mares,” Brown reported. “There are about 80 2-year-olds out there in training now and I've heard from quite a few people that they're very happy with them. Tom and I own about two dozen that are under saddle already. He passes on really good bone and size in his babies. When he was in Kentucky he had runners in the Breeders' Cup and in Dubai, Del Mar and Saratoga. We're hoping some of that success passes on right here to the Pennsylvania program.

This weekend, Brown and the rest of the Just One Time fan club are looking forward to cheering on their star Pennsylvania-bred.

“I've been racing horses for 30 years now but with her, even if you know she's not running for a month, people still talk to you about her,” Brown said. “I get excited any time we have a horse entered, but at the graded-stakes level, it has me talking to people everywhere. It's a whole new level of having something to be excited about.”

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