Taking Stock: Sires and Racing Environments

The advent of Twitter over the last decade or so has made racing results quickly accessible to fans and observers anywhere in the world, so much so that it seems that a greater number of people in the U.S. are more familiar with European racing than ever before. Back when I was a kid, we’d have to wait for the Blood-Horse magazine to arrive in the mail to scan the 10-day old European results in the agate type in the back pages. Now, we get a video of a race on Twitter minutes after the finish, and you’ve got quite a few people on the platform discussing those races with as much passion and knowledge as they do racing here. Moreover, these European visuals have exposed more Americans to the glaring differences in racing environments between here and there.

To begin with, the top European races are contested on turf instead of dirt. And more importantly, there’s a greater variation in distances, courses, and racing styles over there, as the videos of the one-mile G1 Sussex S. on Wednesday from the U.K. and the two-mile G1 Goodwood Cup a day earlier from the same venue pointedly illustrated. There are no Grade l races in this country at two miles, and neither are there Grade l races at five furlongs here as there are in Europe, where 12 furlongs is considered a “middle distance” and the cadence of races is markedly slower earlier, no matter the distances–which are clearly delineated at sprints at five and six furlongs, mile events, 10-13 furlong races, and extreme staying events at a mile and three-quarters up to two-and-a-half miles.

In contrast, almost all top races here seem to hover within a narrow band of seven-to-nine furlongs over dirt ovals and are contested frenetically from the start. Also, 12-furlong horses here are considered “stayers” or “plodders,” and though we do have a graded turf program that caters to horses over 10-12 furlongs, many of whom are ex-European imports, the winners of those races are rarely sought after as stallion prospects like our nine-furlong dirt runners and 10-furlong Gl Kentucky Derby winners.

Epsom Derbys

This disconnect between the racing environments of the U.S. and Europe has been particularly pronounced since 2000, though the trend was evident in the 1990s, and it’s directly related to the types of stallions that find favor here versus there. Since North American-based Northern Dancer exploded in Europe with Nijinsky in 1970, Europeans, particularly Coolmore, have collected his sons, and Coolmore hit the mother lode with the 1984 G1 Irish 2000 Guineas winner Sadler’s Wells, whose sons Galileo (Ire), a G1 Epsom Derby and Irish Derby winner, and Montjeu (Ire), winner of the G1 Irish Derby and Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) back when it was still run over a mile and a half, have dominated European Classics during the same time frame that N. American-bred influence was waning in Europe.

In fact, it may come as a surprise to some on Twitter who ardently follow European racing nowadays–many of whom I’d hazard a guess are younger than 50–that N. American-breds at one time ran roughshod over some of Europe’s greatest races, including the Epsom Derby. During the 1970s, for example, Nijinsky (Northern Dancer), Mill Reef (Never Bend), Roberto (Hail to Reason), Empery (Vaguely Noble {Ire}), and The Minstrel (Northern Dancer) won the prestigious mile-and-a-half Classic, followed in the 1980s by Henbit (Hawaii {SAf}), Golden Fleece (Nijinsky), Teenoso (Youth), Secreto (Northern Dancer), Shahrastani (Nijinsky), and Nashwan (Blushing Groom {Fr}). Things slowed a bit in the 1990s, with Erhaab (Chief’s Crown), Lammtarra (Nijinsky), and Benny the Dip (Silver Hawk), and by the aughts the Americans were limited to just Kris Kin (Kris S.), who won the Blue Riband in 2003. Since then, Galileo and Montjeu have between them accounted for nine European-bred winners of the race, while their sons New Approach (Ire) (Galileo) and Pour Moi (Ire) (Montjeu) have sired two others.

Northern Dancer’s son Danzig also established a foothold in Europe that remains strong through today. North Light (Ire), the winner of the Epsom Derby the year after Kris Kin, was by Danehill, an outstanding and influential son of Danzig; and two other winners since then, Sea the Stars (Ire) and Golden Horn (GB), were by Cape Cross (Ire), a son of the Danzig sprinter Green Desert; and Sea the Stars sired Harzand (Ire), giving the Danzig line four winners of the Classic since 2003. Though Danzig’s European presence is primarily based around milers and sprinters to Sadler’s Wells’s main influence in the mile-and-a-half races, you’ll note that Cape Cross and Sea the Stars have made this branch of Danzig into players at European middle distances, and Sea the Stars has even ventured farther into extreme-stamina territory.

In total since the last U.S.-bred winner of the Epsom Derby in 2003, the Northern Dancer line through Sadler’s Wells and Danzig has accounted for 15 of the 17 winners, with only Sir Percy (GB) (Mark of Esteem {Ire}, who traces to Mill Reef) and Workforce (GB) (King’s Best, a son of the Mr. Prospector horse Kingmambo) breaking up the monopoly.

Of course, there are many other branches of Northern Dancer that have had success through the decades and are still successful in Europe, but Sadler’s Wells and Danzig are the stars, and they’ve combined successfully in pedigrees, back and forth, to keep the Northern Dancer locomotive hurtling forwards. Frankel (GB) (Galileo), the top young sire in Europe and his 22-year-old sire’s heir apparent, is from a Danehill mare and is a product of the Sadler’s Wells/Danzig cross.

The pedigree of this year’s Irish Derby winner Santiago (Ire) (Authorized {Ire}), who was third in the Goodwood Cup on Tuesday, employs this same cross, but with even more doses of Northern Dancer: his sire is by Montjeu and his dam’s sire is Cape Cross, which is Sadler’s Wells/Danzig, but in between and around them in his first five generations are the top Northern Dancer sires Lyphard and Nureyev, along with another dose of Danzig, making Santiago 4x5x5x5x5 to Northern Dancer and 4×4 to Danzig. There’s no question European pedigrees are getting saturated with Northern Dancer blood, but so far with little ill effect.

Stradivarius (Ire), who won the Goodwood Cup for the fourth consecutive year and is the premier stayer in Europe in races up to two-and-a-half miles, is by Sea the Stars, who happens to be a half-brother to Galileo, and is inbred 5x4x5 to Northern Dancer through Danzig, Sadler’s Wells, and Lyphard. Stradivarius’s pedigree illustrates how a branch of the Danzig line evolved gradually from speed to stamina through the generations in the sequence of Green Desert to Cape Cross to Sea the Stars, and it did so only because the racing environment in Europe allowed it the opportunity. This isn’t an option in America, where to succeed as a sire requires consistent high-class speed in the seven-to-nine-furlong Grade l dirt races, with occasional strikes in the Classics at up to a mile and three-sixteenths, a mile and a quarter, and a mile and a half.

Mohaather (GB) (Showcasing {GB}), the winner of the one-mile Sussex S. on Wednesday, is also a member of the Green Desert branch of Danzig as Stradivarius is, but his sire is by Oasis Dream (GB) (Green Desert), who tends to get more sprinter-milers and stays truer to the ethos of Danzig.

The Sussex was notable for another reason, too. In the beaten field were two American-bred Classic winners this year. Third-place finisher Siskin (First Defence), undefeated in five starts entering the race, won the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas, and Kameko (Kitten’s Joy), fourth, had won the G1 2000 Guineas. The duo were the first American-bred European Classic winners since Senga (Blame) won the G1 Prix de Diane (French Oaks) in 2017–and she was, I believe, the first since Arctic Cosmos (North Light) won the G1 St. Leger in 2010–and are harbingers that American-breds might once again start to have an impact on the European Classics, particularly as a newer generation of American owners are getting more smitten with the idea of racing in Europe.

American Sires

Kitten’s Joy is that rare American-based turf sire who’s succeeded against the odds, but he came up through the all-weather era and benefited from a subsequent increase in turf racing to lead the N. American general sire list in 2013. Since then, he’s attracted some European patronage and has had a string of European successes, led by the late European champion and Group 1 winner Roaring Lion and including others such as champion and Group 1 winner Hawkbill, French Group 2 winner Taareef, and current Irish Group 3 winner Crossfirehurricane in addition to Kameko.

War Front, one of Danzig’s last sons, is another with a sparkling track record in Europe, where he’s been particularly effective with his juveniles and at sprint and mile distances. He’s been bred to quite a few Galileo mares by Coolmore and is probably sitting on a Guineas winner down the line.

Aside from them, however, there aren’t too many other American-based sires that are sought after in Europe, but that might change.

Siskin’s pedigree offers the first clue. First Defence (Unbridled’s Song), a Grade l winner at seven furlongs on dirt, is now at stud in Saudi Arabia, but Siskin’s breakthrough in a European Classic was the first for the Unbridled line, which has been so effective on American dirt but nowhere near so on European turf. Siskin’s success now suggests new hope for the line, and that bodes well for Coolmore’s Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile), who’s from the same line by way of Empire Maker (Unbridled) instead of Unbridled’s Song (Unbridled).

So far, American Pharoah is showing a distinct penchant for the turf. From his first crop of 3-year-olds he’s represented by nine black-type winners and six group/graded winners, most of them on turf. He didn’t come up with a first-crop European Classic winner this spring and summer–neither did Northern Dancer; Nijinsky was in his second crop–but American Pharoah does have a dirt colt in Japan who’s eligible for the Kentucky Derby in the fall.

Coolmore stands American Pharoah in Kentucky. The Irish-based farm has actually bet heavily on two American Triple Crown winners, the other being Justify (Scat Daddy)–the two best American 3-year-old champions since Sunday Silence.

Sunday Silence, based in Japan, and Northern Dancer were two Derby/Preakness winners who changed the face of racing in Japan and Europe, respectively, and left sons to continue their work. American Pharoah and Justify, both of whom were even more accomplished in the grueling Triple Crown than them, will be given their own chances to succeed in Europe. Perhaps the European climate will be just right for them, especially with Montjeu gone, Galileo aging, and voids opening for another infusion of American blood.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Taking Stock: Race Records and Stallion Prospects

Sackatoga Stable’s Tiz the Law (Constitution) was a Grade l winner at two, won the Grade l Florida Derby this year, and goes for the first Classic of the season as the favorite in the Gl Belmont S. on Saturday. His breeding rights have been tied up for months, and if he does nothing from here on in–highly unlikely as that is–he’ll still have a place at stud at a prominent farm.

Tiz the Law’s racetrack future is bright. After the Belmont, he’ll likely contest the Gl Travers at Saratoga in August ahead of the Gl Kentucky Derby in September and the Gl Preakness in October, and a win in one or more of those races will only burnish his resume and take him to another level as a stallion prospect.

Classic winners who were also highest-level winners at two are the most sought-after types in the breeding shed among both owner-breeders and commercial breeders, and at this moment Tiz the Law is perhaps the only colt of his generation with a legitimate chance to attain that status.

Godolphin’s Maxfield (Street Sense) was another Grade l-winning juvenile like Tiz the Law who had a chance to become a Classic winner this year, but following a comeback win in the Glll Matt Winn S. at Churchill Downs last month, he suffered a fracture in his first breeze back and it appears likely his career is over. If he’s done racing, his record will stand at three wins from three starts, including a top-level win in the GI Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in his second start, and he’ll probably go to stud at Darley, Godolphin’s breeding arm, where his sire stands.

Nadal didn’t win a Grade l race at two, but he was undefeated in his four career starts, including the GI Arkansas Derby, and was a leading contender for the Classics before he suffered a career-ending fracture in a workout, too. One of his owners, George Bolton, has said he’ll go to stud next year, though where that may be hasn’t been announced yet.

Fragile Horses
Victoria Keith, who’s affiliated with Fox Hill Farm, tweeted on June 10: “At some point, racing may want to address the fragility of the breed. Several top 3yos out with injury, Maxfield the latest, who’s had 2 bone injuries in 3 starts.”

She followed that tweet with this one: “Where are the soundness stats? In an industry full of handicapping, nick, and other data, shouldn’t owners and breeders be equipped with soundness data when they make their breeding and buying decisions?”

Keith certainly raises some legitimate questions, something Fox Hill dealt with after the death of the stable’s Eight Belles (Unbridled’s Song) in the Kentucky Derby gallop-out. In fact, it’s an issue that’s been addressed since the beginnings of the sport, and you can throw a dart into any time frame since and find commentary on the issue from various angles. In the Nov. 13, 1961, issue of Sports Illustrated, for example, Whitney Tower, writing about some racetrack injuries, referenced this quote from the Chronicle of the Horse: “Far more important has been the long established practice of breeders to put to stud any animal which will transmit speed, no matter what its shortcomings in other respects. Thus, there have crept into the Thoroughbred breed various types of inherited unsoundness–crooked legs, round ankles, bad knees, shelly feet, curby hocks, soft and brittle bones.”

In 1961, there were far more owner-breeders in the sport who raced the horses they bred, but nowadays, especially in Kentucky, commercial breeders dominate the landscape, and because they frequently use first-crop sires as an investment strategy, there isn’t any “soundness data” on the offspring of these horses on which to base mating or buying decisions, except for their own race records.

And race records are sometimes unreliable guides to future sire performance. Raise a Native (Native Dancer) and Northern Dancer (Nearctic) were both foaled in 1961. The latter won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and went on to a fabulous stud career that is still profound to this day. But the former, a brilliantly fast and undefeated black-type winner who made only four starts at two before bowing a tendon, has been just as influential, particularly as the sire of Mr. Prospector.

Northern Dancer sired his version of Raise a Native in Danzig, a foal of 1977 who won each of his three starts–none in stakes company–before a bum knee stopped him. Contrast him to Temperence Hill (Stop the Music), the champion 3-year-old colt of their crop in 1980 and the winner of the Belmont S. who made 31 starts. As a stallion, Temperence Hill sired sound stock, getting 83% starters to foals, but he got only 4% black-type winners to foals. Danzig, on the other hand, gave up some soundness, at 77% starters to foals, but sired better horses, with 18% black-type winners.

Nureyev (Northern Dancer), like Danzig, also made only three starts, finishing first in all of them, but he was disqualified from the G1 2000 Guineas and officially had only Group 3 credit next to his name, though he was also named a champion French miler. He, too, became a world-class sire, getting 81% starters to foals and 17% black-type winners. His name has already been peppered throughout the pedigrees of several European Classic and Group 1 winners so far this season. Claiborne stood Danzig but bred Nureyev, whose homebred dam, Special, raced only once, finishing unplaced, because she was a bleeder.

Claiborne also bred and stood Drone (Sir Gaylord), who broke down after four wins from four starts–none in stakes company. A foal of 1966, Drone sired 80% starters from foals and 9% black type winners. He’s been an influential broodmare sire. More recently, Claiborne stands Mastery (Candy Ride {Arg}), a Grade I winner at two and undefeated in four starts. His career, like those of Nadal and Maxfield, was cut short by a condylar fracture. His stud services have been highly sought despite a limited career.

Not This Time
On the same day–June 10–that Maxfield’s injury was announced and Keith tweeted her concerns for the “fragility of the breed,” Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway), a first-crop sire who made four lifetime starts and won one Grade lll race, was represented by the session and eventual sales topper at the OBS Spring sale. Hip 1254, a filly out of Sheza Smoke Show who’d worked the fastest quarter-mile at the sale in :20 1/5, brought $1,350,000 from Gary Young. The next-highest price that day was the $800,000 that D.J. Stable paid for a Candy Ride (Arg) colt (Hip 561) who’d worked a furlong in :10 1/5.

Not This Time sustained a soft tissue injury and he never raced after two. Candy Ride, likewise, had a career-ending soft tissue injury when he was four and was plagued by foot problems throughout his career, which lasted for all of six starts–the same as Pulpit and his son Tapit. He was undefeated in three starts in Argentina and three in the U.S., and he was a Grade l winner on two continents. He’s since become a premier stallion and has sired such as Horse of the Year Gun Runner, who came into his own as an older horse, and Mastery, an outstanding 2-year-old.

Not This Time, who stands at Taylor Made and entered stud for a $15,000 fee, has not put off buyers with his abbreviated race record. Aside from the sale topper, the horse was represented at OBS with lots that made $700,000 and $575,000 as well. It’s also notable that WinStar’s Speightster (Speightstown), a homebred who entered stud for a $10,000 fee and also has first-crop runners, had the third-highest price at OBS, a colt who sold for $1.1 million. Speightster won three of four starts, his only stakes win a Grade lll race.

Both Speightster and Not This Time are just beginning their careers and are represented by winners from limited opportunities available this year. They have a long way to go to become recognized as successful sires, but their early results have already earned them the support of horsemen in the sales ring. And they are exactly the types of horses, along with the Masterys, Nadals, and Maxfields, that Keith questions as stud prospects and that Whitney Tower’s article from almost 60 years ago addressed, but it’s from this pool of types with abbreviated race records that have also sprung breed-shaping horses like Raise a Native, Danzig, and Nureyev.

In short, it’s difficult to predict sire success from a race record alone. And if it turns out, years from now, that Maxfield becomes a better sire than Tiz the Law or any of his other contemporaries who carve out longer careers, it shouldn’t surprise anyone with a knowledge of history.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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