Tag: NL List

Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Leading Trainers By ROI

Second in a series helping horseplayers learn more about betting Hong Kong racing, by international wagering authority Dick Powell. Click here for the first installment on leading riders by ROI.

The 2021-2022 Hong Kong Jockey Club season began on September 5 and will continue with racing twice a week until July 16. Unlike the jockeys where the top two, Joao Moreira and Zac Purton, won 282 of the 835 races last season (34%), the two leading trainers, Caspar Fownes and John Size, won a combined 152 races (18%).

There are no “super” trainers in Hong Kong and the table below illustrates it. These are the leading trainers and their win percentages. Only five have even double-digit win percentages and the highest is John Size at 13.98%.

 

Trainer Wins Starters Win %
Caspar Fownes 79 640 12.34%
John Size 73 522 13.98%
Frankie Lor 65 574 11.32%
Francis Lui 61 576 10.59%
Danny Shum 57 499 11.42%
Tony Cruz 51 635 8.03%
Doug Whyte 41 517 7.93%
Me Tsui 37 559 6.62%
David Hall 36 404 8.91%
Dennis Yip 34 531 6.40%
Chris So 33 511 6.46%
Ricky Yiu 33 454 7.27%
Benno Yung 32 405 7.90%
David Hayes 32 422 7.58%
Jimmy Ting 31 449 6.90%
Tony Millard 30 386 7.77%
Manfred Man 30 487 6.16%
Paul O'Sullivan 26 377 6.90%
David Ferraris 17 376 4.52%
Richard Gibson 17 249 6.83%

 

Part of this is explainable by field size. The average field size of every race in Hong Kong is about 12. So, from a random point of view, each trainer has a 1 in 12 chance of  winning or 8.33%. If the field size is 8, like it is at many American tracks, there is a 1 in 8 chance of winning or 12.5%. Winning races in Hong Kong is much more difficult, even for the leading trainers.

Takeout on win betting in Hong Kong is 17.5% so an average win payoff of $1.65 exceeds the takeout. The following are the leading trainers from the 2020-2021 season and their ROI based on a $2 win bet:

 

Trainer Wins Starters Money Earned $2 Bet/Horse ROI
Caspar Fownes 79 640 $818.80 $1,280.00 $1.28
John Size 73 522 $953.20 $1,044.00 $1.83
Frankie Lor 65 574 $1,071.20 $1,148.00 $1.87
Francis Lui 61 576 $785.70 $1,152.00 $1.36
Danny Shum 57 499 $767.90 $998.00 $1.54
Tony Cruz 51 635 $735.20 $1,270.00 $1.16
Doug Whyte 41 517 $814.40 $1,034.00 $1.58
Me Tsui 37 559 $791.60 $1,118.00 $1.42
David Hall 36 404 $602.60 $808.00 $1.49
Dennis Yip 34 531 $781.90 $1,062.00 $1.47
Chris So 33 511 $733.20 $1,022.00 $1.43
Ricky Yiu 33 454 $580.80 $908.00 $1.28
Benno Yung 32 405 $830.00 $810.00 $2.05
David Hayes 32 422 $445.40 $844.00 $1.06
Jimmy Ting 31 449 $1,087.10 $898.00 $2.42
Tony Millard 30 386 $519.60 $772.00 $1.35
Manfred Man 30 487 $713.40 $974.00 $1.46
Paul O'Sullivan 26 377 $488.60 $754.00 $1.30
David Ferraris 17 376 $409.50 $752.00 $1.09
Richard Gibson 17 249 $488.20 $498.00 $1.96

 

This tells a dramatically different story as the leading trainers do not always equal pari-mutuel success. So which trainers provide the best value? Here are the trainers listed by their ROI:

 

Trainer Wins Starters Money Earned $2 Bet/Horse ROI
Jimmy Ting 31 449 $1,087.10 $898.00 $2.42
Benno Yung 32 405 $830.00 $810.00 $2.05
Richard Gibson 17 249 $488.20 $498.00 $1.96
Frankie Lor 65 574 $1,071.20 $1,148.00 $1.87
John Size 73 522 $953.20 $1,044.00 $1.83
Doug Whyte 41 517 $814.40 $1,034.00 $1.58
Danny Shum 57 499 $767.90 $998.00 $1.54
David Hall 36 404 $602.60 $808.00 $1.49
Dennis Yip 34 531 $781.90 $1,062.00 $1.47
Manfred Man 30 487 $713.40 $974.00 $1.46
Chris So 33 511 $733.20 $1,022.00 $1.43
Me Tsui 37 559 $791.60 $1,118.00 $1.42
Francis Lui 61 576 $785.70 $1,152.00 $1.36
Tony Millard 30 386 $519.60 $772.00 $1.35
Paul O'Sullivan 26 377 $488.60 $754.00 $1.30
Caspar Fownes 79 640 $818.80 $1,280.00 $1.28
Ricky Yiu 33 454 $580.80 $908.00 $1.28
Tony Cruz 51 635 $735.20 $1,270.00 $1.16
David Ferraris 17 376 $409.50 $752.00 $1.09
David Hayes 32 422 $445.40 $844.00 $1.06

 

Some words of caution:

Jimmy Ting's positive ROI is affected by a win that paid $359.30 but it is still a decent $1.62 without it.

Benno Yung's positive ROI is affected by a win that paid $151.90 but it is still a decent $1.67 without it.

Frankie Lor ($1.87) and John Size ($1.83) are the only leading trainers that are beating the takeout and a couple, Caspar Fownes ($1.28) and Tony Cruz ($1.16) are near the bottom. When making your selections, make sure you are getting a decent price.

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Day 1 Of Thoroughbred Makeover Sees Early Leaders In Dressage, Show Jumping

The first day of preliminary competition is in the books at the 2021 Thoroughbred Makeover and National Symposium, with Dressage and Show Jumper taking the spotlight as the competition's two most popular classes this year.

The 2021 “Mega-Makeover” includes separate competition years to accommodate horses from the postponed 2020 Thoroughbred Makeover, as well as the scheduled 2021 event. While both 2020 and 2021 horses competed side-by-side in arenas today, their scores are ranked separately.

2020 Dressage: Elbow Room, trained by Helen Pianca
Elbow Room (D'Funnybone – Show Me the Carats, by More Than Ready) and Helen Pianca danced across the Rolex Arena into the overnight lead in the 2020 competition year for Dressage, earning a 77.414 on their test plus a 48.00 for their demonstration ride, for a combined score of 125.414. The demonstration ride allows trainers to showcase their horse's strengths and any advanced maneuvers they may be developing not already demonstrated in the test.

“He handled the atmosphere like a professional,” said Pianca, a professional from Granville, Ohio. “We had one little bobble in our demo ride, but other than that he felt pretty flawless. We lost some training time when I had a baby, so he had a few months off in the earlier part of this year, and I think he would have been just as good last year, honestly — he's been a professional since I got him. He's my first 'me' horse — now that I have kids, I want a horse for myself! For me personally, I can't beat a Thoroughbred.”

Elbow Room is a 2014 16-hand chestnut gelding, bred in New York by EKQ Stables Corp. He sold as a weanling at Keeneland November in 2014 for $40,000, then sold again as a yearling at Fasig-Tipton New York Saratoga Preferred New York Bred Yearling Sale for $75,000. He went on to make 23 starts with four wins, retiring in July of 2019 from Finger Lakes with earnings of $36,970. He'll return in the Freestyle on Thursday.

2021 Dressage: My Dad Louie, trained by Jaclyn Schellhase
Jaclyn Schellhase and My Dad Louie. Photo courtesy CanterClix
Stepping out in Western tack in the second year Western dressage was available as an entry option in the discipline, My Dad Louie (Regal Ransom – Indigo Girl, by Leestown) and Jaclyn Schellhase top the overnight standings for 2021 Dressage. The pair earned a 72.500 on their test and a 50.00 on their demonstration ride, for a total score of 122.500.

Primarily a barrel racer, Schellhase, a professional from Canton, Ga., applied My Dad Louie's flatwork foundation from barrel racing to a new-to-her discipline.

“He's a great mover and he's very responsive, so I thought he could help me step out of my comfort zone and we could do this together,” she said. “In our demo, we started with just the same maneuvers as the test, but then added in some extended canter, which felt like it went beautifully.”

Schellhase has already connected My Dad Louie to new owners, who have come to the Thoroughbred Makeover to cheer their new horse on, with plans to make him an all-around horse. He is a 2015 16-hand dark bay/brown gelding, bred in Louisiana by Randy Davis & Associates Inc. He made 21 career starts with three wins, earning a total of $47,610. His last race was in August of 2020 at Louisiana Downs. He'll also compete in the Barrel Racing on Wednesday and Thursday, and roll his times to the T.I.P. Barrel Racing Championship.

2020 Show Jumper: Canton Comet, trained by Samantha Fawcett
Samantha Fawcett and Canton Comet. Photo courtesy CanterClix
Canton Comet (Shanghai Bobby – Katie's Ten, by Rock Hard Ten) and Samantha Fawcett have a nearly nine-point lead on the rest of the 2020 Show Jumper discipline after the first day of competition, receiving marks of 175.50 and 175.00 for a round score of 175.25.

“I purchased her as a 3-year-old from Kentucky with the goal of sending her to the 2020 Makeover; my intentions were actually to sell her then. I'm very glad that did not happen, because we've decided to keep her to develop her further in show jumping,” describes Fawcett, a professional from Alton, Ontario. “We kept everything really straightforward with the extra time and focused on her dressage. She really grew into herself and really started to blossom over the past winter. She's exceeded our expectations!”

Canton Comet is a 2016 16.3-hand black mare bred in Kentucky by Kirby Chua. She sold for $80,000 as a yearling at Keeneland September in 2017, and went on to make nine starts with one win. Her final start was in August of 2019 at Arlington, where she retired with $20,698 in earnings. She'll return in the Show Hunter on Wednesday.

2021 Show Jumper: Absolute Drama, trained by Emily Clayton
Emily Clayton and Absolute Drama. Photo courtesy CanterClix
Absolute Drama (Big Drama – Perfect Charm, by Charismatic) and Emily Clayton outshone the rest in the 2021 competition year for Show Jumper, earning scores of 152.25 and 155.75 for a round score of 154.00

“I'm shocked, actually,” describes Clayton, a professional from Lafayette, Louisiana. “He's only four — I just wanted to give him a good ride. We focus on flatwork a lot at home, and a lot of work went in, but he's pretty easygoing and level-headed. Our first round was our best round.”

Absolute Drama already has a new home lined up after the Thoroughbred Makeover and will head to his new owners once he and Clayton return home. A 2017 15.3 hand dark bay/brown gelding, Absolute Drama was bred in Louisiana by EPIC Thoroughbreds, LLC and made four starts, never breaking his maiden. He retired with $450 in earnings from Evangeline, making his final start in July of 2020. He'll return in the Show Hunter on Wednesday.

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Bubble Rock Best In Matron At Belmont

Shortleaf Stable's homebred Bubble Rock reeled in pacesetter Mystic Eyes and staved off the late-running Gal in a Rush to secure a half-length score in Saturday's $150,000 Grade 3 Matron, a six-furlong inner turf sprint for juvenile fillies, at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y.

Trained by Brad Cox and piloted by Irad Ortiz, Jr., who captured his 3,000th career win here on Thursday, Bubble Rock entered from a dominant 3 1/4-length maiden score sprinting 5 1/2-furlongs over the Mellon turf on September 3 at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Mystic Eyes, with Manny Franco up, broke alertly and led the field through a half-mile in :44.24 over the firm going with Makin My Move tracking her early foot from second position.

Bubble Rock, who settled outside rivals in third, advanced four-wide through the turn and gradually picked off Makin My Move before surging past a stubborn Mystic Eyes to secure the win in a final time of 1:08.01.

Gal in a Rush, who exited the outermost post 9 under Dylan Davis, saved ground in the early going before tipping out and rallying strongly down the lane to complete the exacta by a half-length over Mystic Eyes.

The victory marked the second Matron score for Ortiz, Jr., who captured last year's edition aboard Royal Approval.

“She's nice. Last time she won and finished well, too,” said Ortiz, Jr., who has piloted Bubble Rock in all three starts. “I just did the same thing today. I waited for my time to go and when I asked her, she finished up really strong again. She's got a really good size to her and she always finishes well, so I think she'll be alright.”

Dustin Dugas, the New York-based assistant for Cox, said Bubble Rock has matured over the course of her campaign.

“She's progressed a lot mentally,” Dugas said. “She's been a very nervous filly to work with and she's kind of taken some time. She's really progressed mentally and physically she's a very big, good-looking filly and moves great.”

Rounding out the order of finish were Makin My Move, The Club, Lady Danae, Dufresne, High Arabian, and Mainstay. Benbang was scratched along with the Wesley Ward-trained duo of Poppy Flower and Chi Town Lady, who are both slated to take on the boys in Sunday's Grade 3 Futurity.

Bubble Rock is out of the Giant's Causeway mare Reef Point, who is a half-sister to millionaire Blue Chipper – winner of the 2019 Group 1 Keeneland Korea Sprint in Seoul and third-place finisher in that year's Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

A Kentucky homebred, Bubble Rock banked $82,500 in victory while improving her record to 3-2-1-0. She paid $7 for a $2 win wager.

Live racing returns Sunday at Belmont Park with a nine-race card featuring the $250,000 Grade 2 Beldame for fillies and mares 3-years-old and upward going nine furlongs; the $150,000 Grade 3 Futurity for juveniles going six furlongs on the turf, a “Win And You're In” for the Grade 2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint; and the $150,000 Grade 3 Knickerbocker going nine furlongs on the turf for 3-year-olds and upward. First post is 12:35 p.m. Eastern.

America's Day at the Races will present daily coverage and analysis of the fall meet at Belmont Park on the networks of FOX Sports. For the complete broadcast schedule, visit https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/tv-schedule.

NYRA Bets is the official wagering platform of Belmont Park, and the best way to bet every race of the fall meet. Available to horseplayers nationwide, the NYRA Bets app is available for download today on iOS and Android at www.NYRABets.com.

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United Battles Back From Wide Trip To Defend John Henry Turf Championship Title

Decorated 6-year-old gelding United didn't get the easiest trip in the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship at Santa Anita Park on Oct. 2, but he prevailed all the same, clinching his second edition of the stakes race. United and rider Flavien Prat were shuffled back in the early going on the downhill turf course, and settled near the back of the field on the first trip past the stands as Acclimate and Neptune's Storm controlled the pace. Prat kept United off the rail and quietly passed a few horses before taking a breather on the backstretch. The pair made their move even before the final turn, swinging wide and picking off rivals, charging just in time to catch Acclimate and to just top Friar's Road, who was putting in a last-to-first effort.

The final time for the 1 1/4 miles was 1:58.41, with fractional times of :22.70, :46.32, 1:11.42, and 1:35.01. Acclimate held on for second over Friar's Road.

United went off the favorite at odds of 7-5 and paid $4.80, $3.40, and $2.40.

The Richard Mandella trainee came to the race off a fourth place finish in the G2 Del Mar Handicap, where Acclimate just nosed him off the board. His credits from this year include wins in the G2 Eddie Read and G3 San Luis Rey. Last year, he won or finished second in five of six starts, collecting four graded victories but finishing a disappointing eighth in the Breeders' Cup Turf.

The race was he fourth win on the card for Prat, and the second for Mandella and owner LNJ Foxwoods.

United was bred in Kentucky by Rosemont Farm. He is the son of Giant's Causeway and Pulling Punches mare Indy Punches. As a weanling, he sold for $240,000 at the Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale, where he was consigned by Trackside Farm and purchased by Glencrest Farm. He went on to the Saratoga Selected Yearling Sale the next year, where he raised $300,000 from purchaser Solis/Litt and was presented by Four Star Sales.

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