Newgrange | Horse Racing Free Tips

Baffert Saddles Southwest Favorite

Bob Baffert has a chance to sweep Saturday's GI Kentucky Derby preps as he saddles three of the five runners in Santa Anita's GII San Vicente and the morning-line favorite in Oaklawn's GIII Southwest S. in Newgrange (Violence). A debut winner at Del Mar Nov. 28, the dark bay wired Santa Anita's GIII Sham S. next out Jan. 1, earning a field's-best 88 Beyer Speed Figure.

Smarty Jones S. top three Dash Attack (Munnings), Barber Road (Race Day) and Ignitis (Nyquist) rematch here. Opening his account with a 1 1/4-length score here Dec. 5, Dash Attack rallied from well back to take a sloppy renewal of the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones by two lengths.

Barber Road graduated at second asking when dropped from a maiden special weight to a maiden $30,000 and extended to two turns at Keeneland in October. Romping in a starter allowance at Churchill Nov. 10, the gray was second in the Lively Shively S. beneath the Twin Spires 17 days later and was next seen in the Smarty Jones.

After a quartet of in-the-money efforts, Ignitis earned his diploma at Keeneland Oct. 14, but could only manage sixth in the Lively Shively prior to the Smarty Jones.

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Unbeaten California Shipper Newgrange Takes On Dash Attack In Oaklawn’s Southwest

Trainer Bob Baffert has the 2-1 program favorite in unbeaten Newgrange (2 for 2) for Oaklawn Park's second Kentucky Derby points race, this Saturday's $250,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) for 3-year-olds. Baffert bids for a record-tying fifth victory in Saturday's Grade 3 Southwest, now worth $750,000.

“Glad to be running at Oaklawn again,” Baffert said in a text message Tuesday night. “I think he's a nice horse. Training well.”

The 1 1/16-mile Southwest will mark the first start outside California for Newgrange, who exits a front-running victory in the $100,000 Sham Stakes (G3) at one mile Jan. 1 at Santa Anita. (Baffert trainees are not eligible for Kentucky Derby points, due to a ban by Churchill Downs.)

Oaklawn conducted its first Kentucky Derby points race New Year's Day, with the Kenny McPeek-trained Dash Attack splashing home to a two-length victory in the $250,000 Smarty Jones at 1 mile.

Six other Smarty Jones starters are entered in the Southwest, which goes as the ninth of 11 races. Racing begins Saturday at 12:02 p.m. (Central), with probable post for the Southwest 4:22 p.m.

The projected 12-horse Southwest field from the rail out:

Ben Diesel, Jon Court to ride, 117 pounds, 10-1 on the morning line;
Dash Attack, David Cohen, 122, 7-2;
Don'tcrossthedevil, Ramon Vazquez, 117, 30-1;
Kavod, Francisco Arrieta, 117, 12-1;
Costa Terra, Tiago Pereira, 117, 12-1;
Osbourne, David Cabrera, 117, 8-1;
Ignitis, Luis Contreras, 117, 10-1;
Barber Road, Ricardo Santana Jr., 117, 5-1;
Classic Moment, Martin Garcia, 117, 12-1;
Newgrange, John Velazquez, 122, 2-1;
Call Me Jamal, Geovanni Franco, 117, 30-1; and
Vivar, Florent Geroux, 119, 12-1.

Dash Attack collected 10 points for his Smarty Jones victory and ranks ninth on the official Kentucky Derby leaderboard released last Sunday by Churchill Downs.

The Kentucky Derby is limited to 20 starters, with starting preference given to horses with the highest point totals earned in designated races like the Smarty Jones and the Southwest, which also offers 17 to the four finishers (10-4-2-1).

Newgrange, like all Baffert horses, is ineligible for Kentucky Derby qualifying points because of a Churchill Downs suspension, stemming from a possible medication violation involving his 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit.

Dash Attack is also two for two, breaking his maiden Dec. 5 at Oaklawn and returning to win the Smarty Jones in his first start against winners. Both of Dash Attack's victories have come at one mile and over an off track.

“It looks like a good next spot for him,” McPeek said. “Baffert's horse coming in from California, obviously, looks like he's got a lot of raw talent. There's some others in there that have run well. Look, it's never easy, but our colt's doing good.”

Also returning from the Smarty Jones are Barber Road, Ignitis, Kavod, Vivar, Ben Diesel and Don'tcrossthedevil, the 2-3-4-5-7-12 finishers, respectively.

Barber Road is seeking his first stakes victory after also finishing second in the $200,000 Lively Shively Nov. 27 at Churchill Downs to conclude his 2-year-old campaign. The speedy Barber Road, who was farther back than expected in the Smarty Jones, switches to eight-time Oaklawn riding champion Ricardo Santana Jr. after regular rider Reylu Gutierrez picked up the mount on Chess Chief for the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1) Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

“We've competed against them and know where we stand,” said John Ortiz, who trains Barber Road for former Walmart executive William Simon. “I think the horse has improved since (the Smarty Jones), and I think with the added distance he's going to improve more. We'll just let him come out of the gate and put Ricardo in a good spot and just go from there. With a fast track, I expect him to be a little closer and more involved.”

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas produced an upset in the 1992 Southwest with Big Sur, who wired a field that included two future Triple Crown race winners in Lil E. Tee (Kentucky Derby) and Pine Bluff (Preakness). Lukas bids for his second Southwest victory with Ignitis, who was beaten three lengths in the Smarty Jones at odds of 31-1.

“I think he earned the right to run in this next race in the 3-year-old series,” Lukas said. “He finished up. He's still a little bit green. He still hasn't learned exactly all the little things we'd liked to have a 3-year-old learn, but that's true of so many of them at this time of year. We're going to evaluate him. We're going to run him in there and hope for an improved race. He finished really strong the other day, so maybe the mile and a sixteenth will help him a little bit, too.”

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New shooters include Osbourne for trainer Ron Moquett of Hot Springs and Costa Terra for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, a three-time Southwest winner. Osbourne will be making his 3-year-old debut after passing the Smarty Jones in favor of the $400,000 Springboard Mile Stakes Dec. 17 at Remington Park. A gelded son of Asmussen's 2014 Southwest winner Tapiture, Osbourne finished second, beaten a half-length, in the Springboard Mile.

“I like our chances,” said Moquett, who won the 2015 Southwest with Far Right. “I think it's a good shot to see where we're at. There are some nice horses in here, obviously. You hang $750,000 up and there's going to be some people show up wanting it.”

Costa Terra, a homebred son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner for Winchell Thoroughbreds (Ron and Joan Winchell), hasn't started since finishing fifth in the $500,000 Breeders' Futurity (G1) Oct. 9 at Keeneland. Costa Terra is a half-brother to Pneumatic, who won his first two career starts at the 2020 Oaklawn meeting for Asmussen and the Winchells before running fourth in the Belmont Stakes later that year.

“He's always shown some talent,” longtime Winchell racing/farm manager David Fiske said of Costa Terra. “I thought he ran well in the Breeders' Futurity, just, obviously, not well enough. He was another guy that was kind of down the depth chart behind some of the other 2-year-olds that we had last year, but he seems to be picking it up since the calendar turned.”

Late-running Vivar adds blinkers for trainer Brad Cox after being beaten only 3 ¼ lengths in the Smarty Jones. Vivar, a homebred for John Ed Anthony of Hot Springs, broke his maiden at a mile on the turf Sept. 5 at Kentucky Downs and was a first-level off-the-turf allowance winner at 1 1/16 miles Oct. 29 at Keeneland.

“Vivar should be better with a little more stretch,” said Cox, who won last year's Southwest with champion Essential Quality.

Call Me Jamal and Classic Moment, another Asmussen trainee, remove Lasix because the anti-bleeder medication is banned from Kentucky Derby points races. Classic Moment adds blinkers following a fourth-place finish in the Springboard Mile. Call Me Jamal broke his maiden Dec. 18 at Oaklawn in his two-turn debut for trainer Mike Puhich.

Normally run in late February, the Southwest will be contested in January for the first time. All of Oaklawn's 2022 Kentucky Derby points races were moved up on the calendar in conjunction with its earliest in history (Dec. 3). The Arkansas Derby, April 2, falls five weeks before the Kentucky Derby. It had been three weeks since 1996.

“It's a little odd,” Moquett said. “But once you get into it, it's just like anything else. You're just looking at the day in front of you. Later, you might think about that stuff. But right now, we're just thinking about how do we get through the next couple of days of training to get into the paddock and the gates and let's go.”

The Southwest was inaugurated in 1968.

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TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 25

We're about to tear the January page off the calendar, a ritual that signals a welcome thaw in the prep schedule for the GI Kentucky Derby. Over the next two weekends there will be four qualifying points stakes from coast to coast. Here's who's hot (and not) heading into February.

1) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $284,810. Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Next Start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 10.

Smile Happy has brawn, natural speed, ahead-of-his-peers mental maturity, and “swagger factor” on his side. But they don't drape a blanket of roses across your back on the first Saturday in May just for checking a lot of boxes on the desirability list. This son of Runhappy needs racing experience to flesh out his authoritative two-for-two record as a juvenile, and trainer Ken McPeek has now settled on the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds over 1 1/8 miles for Smile Happy's sophomore debut (after previously considering shorter and earlier preps at both Oaklawn and Gulfstream). McPeek told Daily Racing Form last week the Risen Star would be the first of what would “ideally” be a two-prep path to Louisville. Since 1937, only three horses have won the Derby with four or fewer previous lifetime starts: Animal Kingdom (four), plus Justify and Big Brown (three each). McPeek trainees returning after 60 to 90 days off in races of nine furlongs or greater have won two of 15 starts over the past five years. On Sunday, Smile Happy closed at 8-1 in Pool 2 of the Derby future wager, the lowest-priced individual betting entrant behind the 9-5 favored field.

2) PAPPACAP (c, Gun Runner–Pappascat, by Scat Daddy) O/B-Rustlewood Farm, Inc. (FL). T-Mark E. Casse. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 6-2-2-1, $596,000. Last Start: 3rd GIIII Lecomte S. Next Start: Next start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 14.

Pappacap got dethroned from the No. 1 ranking, but his third-place effort as the beaten favorite in Saturday's GIII Lecomte S. doesn't warrant a full-scale banishment from the upper crust of the crop. These winter stakes are, after all, preparatory efforts, and the wider view of Pappacap's career arc still portends well for getting 10 furlongs three-plus months from now. As usual, this always-engaged Gun Runner homebred broke without issue, then settled fifth at the fence, underscoring this colt has no confidence issues racing in a covered-up position at the rail. Jockey Joe Bravo let Pappacap cruise up under his own power between the six-furlong and half-mile poles to range within two lengths of pacemaking Epicenter (Not This Time). But by the far turn Pappacap was so seriously hemmed in that Bravo's commitment to the rail started to look like a liability rather than a ground-saving advantage. Epicenter drifted out under pressure, and while Pappacap leapt forward through the suddenly larger opening at the quarter pole, he didn't truly seize command. Pappacap gave Epicenter a stout run for his money from the three-sixteenths pole until 50 yards from the finish, where both were blindsided by a fresh 28-1 closer. “He fought all the way down the lane,” Bravo said. “Both [he and Epicenter] are special horses. They got into a fight and guess what happens? It set up for somebody else to run by both of us.”

3) CORNICHE (c, Quality Road–Wasted Tears, by Najran) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Speedway Stables LLC. B-Bart Evans & Stonehaven Steadings (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $385,000 RNA ylg '20 KEESEP; $1,500,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,262,000. Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.

Corniche was an undefeatable front-running force who cuffed around his peers at age two up to 1 1/16 miles. But he has yet to begin serious training for his sophomore campaign, and the looming confrontation over trainer Bob Baffert's banishment from Churchill Downs coupled with the inability of his entrants to earn Derby qualifying points is casting an unwelcome shadow over this Quality Road colt's highly anticipated return. Corniche's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile wire job is the race that will almost certainly earn him divisional championship honors. But you have to consider the fortuitous circumstances that played in his favor prior to that race–namely, the vet scratch of the morning line favorite, fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Jack Christopher (Munnings), who was the only other pure speed threat in the Juvenile. In addition, it's worth noting that the GI Juvenile Fillies run two races earlier that day produced a same-distance final clocking .26 seconds faster than Corniche's performance. This colt's GI American Pharoah S. score Oct. 1 might have actually been a better, stronger effort–he led under constant pressure, swatted away two legit challengers on the turn, and that race yielded two next-out stakes winners, a MSW winner, plus the runner-up in the Juvenile.

4) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-1, $181,100. Last Start: 2nd GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Next Start: GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 5. KY Derby Points: 6.

The Giant's Causeway out of a Thunder Gulch mare breeding line that anchors this colt's pedigree is only going to play into Classic Causeway's favor the deeper he advances on the Triple Crown path. Being a sharp breaker is also on his side, too, as the previous six Derby winners all either wired their fields or were second at the internal points of call. Yet this homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper doesn't need to be in front to run well, and his concession of the lead from the one hole in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. shows that he can comfortably stalk inside. In that race Classic Causeway eventually escaped the rail in search of more room out in the clear, but he was out-kicked by a superior Smile Happy that November early evening under the lights at Churchill. He's three breezes back into his Palm Meadows training for a seasonal debut in the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., a potentially “loaded” affair that could also lure several other contenders on this list.

5) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $31,800. Last Start: 1st Gulfstream MSW. Next Start: Aiming for a two-turn allowance spot. KY Derby Points: 0.

Emmanuel spiked a temperature that forced trainer Todd Pletcher to scratch him from a Jan. 7 two-turn allowance at Tampa, which was to be his second career start off a visually appealing one-turn-mile debut score at Gulfstream (by 6 3/4 lengths with a 78 Beyer Speed Figure). That's the type of a setback that doesn't mean as much on the Derby trail in early January as it might in, say, late March. This $350,000 KEESEP colt by More Than Ready has since posted two bullet half-mile breezes at Palm Beach Downs on consecutive Saturdays, and Pletcher affirmed to TDN on Saturday that he will “hopefully” find another allowance spot instead of attempting a stakes for this physically imposing colt's first two-turn try. One concern as Emmanuel approaches seven weeks between starts is that seven of the horses he beat back on Dec. 11 have already come back to race; six of them lost and the only winner was a dropdown into the maiden optional-claiming ranks. So the “Who'd he beat?” question might end up being legit moving forward into start number two.

6) GIANT GAME (Giant's Causeway–Game For More, More Than Ready) O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-H. Allen Poindexter (KY). T-Dale L. Romans. Sales History: $500,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-0-2, $242,400. Last Start: 3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA. Next Start: Possible for GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 5. KY Derby Points: 4.

Giant Game's above-expectations third at 21-1 odds in the Breeders' Cup has a “deep end of the pool” appeal to it considering he shipped cross-country to square off against the best in his class in his first try outside the maiden ranks, then kicked on smartly while wide off the final turn. The effort was notable not so much for a massive breakthrough, but in terms of suggesting he could be a dangerous racehorse with seasoning at age three. We don't quite have much '22 form available yet to judge the progression of the horses he faced in the Juvenile (only three entrants have run back; all ran third in points-eligible Derby preps). But dig deeper to check out the two MSW races this $500,000 FTKSEL colt by Giant's Causeway competed in, and you'll see the makings of potential key races, as no fewer than a combined seven starters from both races (including Giant Game himself) returned to win next time out. This colt has built a base of five Gulfstream breezes in preparation for a possible start in the Holy Bull S., the last three of them five-eighths bullets.

7) COSTA TERRA (c, Gun Runner–Teardrop, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Lifetime Record: SP, 3-1-0-1, $57,900. Last Start: 5th GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Jan. 29. KY Derby Points: 0.

Costa Terra may be a chestnut, but he's my Derby “dark horse” at this early juncture of the season. This Gun Runner homebred for Winchell Thoroughbreds has posted seven published breezes at Fair Grounds for trainer Steve Asmussen after a three-race juvenile campaign that consisted of two Ellis Park performances that were much better than they looked followed by a wide fifth against two-turn Grade I company at Keeneland. Dam Teardrop is a half-sister to Pyro, who won two legs of the Fair Grounds Derby prep stakes in 2008 (he was eighth in the Kentucky Derby). Half-brother Pneumatic was a listed stakes winner who attempted (but was off the board) in 2020's nine-furlong GI Belmont S. and the GI Preakness S. for these same connections.

8) NEWGRANGE (c, Violence–Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker) O-Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Robert E. Masterson & Jay A. Schoenfarber. B-Jack Mandato & Black Rock Thoroughbreds (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $125,000 yrl '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $102,000. Last Star: 1st GIII Sham S. Next Start: GIII Southwest S., OP, Jan. 29. KY Derby Points: N/A.

The two-for-two, speed-centric Newgrange waited on horses before cresting into an unmatchable far-turn gear in the GIII Sham S., leaving the impression that despite a touch of greenness, this $125,000 KEESEP colt by Violence could be the type who's up for bigger and better challenges. Seven-time Derby winner Baffert has now won eight editions of the Sham, yet Authentic in 2020 was the only one of those Sham winners to also win the Derby (Medina Spirit was second in the '21 Sham and also won the Derby).

9) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-1, $197,800. Last Start: 1st GII Remsen S. Next Start: Aiming for GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 5. KY Derby Points: 10.

In this age of fewer starts for A-list horses, some sophomores–including highly heralded ones every year–get very deep into their Derby prep seasons without having been truly tested in a stretch fight. That won't be the case with Mo Donegal, who athletically tipped out past four frontrunners at the head of the lane before bumping and grinding through a :12.33 final furlong in the GII Remsen S. to prevail by a hard-fought nose. That was a much more impressive effort than it might appear considering this $250,000 KEESEP buy was facing winners for the first time while stretching out to the 1 1/8-mile distance. His MSW win at 1 1/16 miles was no slouch either, as Mo Donegal was roused from midpack to close an open-length gap late in the lane. Even his career debut–seemingly a throwout race on paper–was of the sneaky-good variety. Mo Donegal broke slowly from the rail in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint, checked at the half-mile pole, was still double-digit lengths off the leaders turning for home, then rallied determinedly to snag third before galloping out past everyone after the wire.

10) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $99,500. Last Start: 2nd GII Remsen S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 4.

Trainer Chad Brown has favorably compared Zandon to his 2017 GI Preakness S. winner Cloud Computing; both colts won their MSW debuts going short even though neither was really cut out to be a sprinter. Stretching all the way out to nine furlongs in the GII Remsen S., this $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart stalked effectively behind a tepid pace, split horses in upper stretch, then had a visually impressive and roughly run throwdown/showdown with nose winner Mo Donegal. Earlier this month, Brown told TDN he was on the fence between what now appears to be a deep Holy Bull S. and the Risen Star S., which we learned this week will feature No. 1-ranked Smile Happy. Neither figure to be an easy spot, but Zandon could prove to be an overlooked entity at decent odds in either one of those stakes.

11) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-1-0. Last Start: 2nd GIII Lecomte S. Next Start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 19. KY Derby Points: 14.

Epicenter won several internal battles within Saturday's Lecomte S., but he got pipped at the wire to just lose the overall war. The effort was strong enough to launch him into the Top 12. And yes, the two horses who ran second and third in the Lecomte are both ranked higher than the out-of-the-clouds winner, because these ratings try not to rely too heavily on who-beat-whom recency at the expense of the bigger picture. Epicenter established control by the time the field hit the first turn, and although he ran slower consecutive quarter miles on the front end at each call, he gets style points for turning back a wall of horses off the turn when he could have just as easily cracked under pressure. Epicenter repulsed the favorite, Pappacap, in a length-of-stretch fight, then galloped out stronger and longer than the unexpected long shot who rolled by him with mid-track momentum. The top two, separated by a head, shared 88 Beyer Speed Figures.

12) JACK CHRISTOPHER (c, Munnings–Rushin No Blushin, by Half Ours) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Jim Bakke, Gerald Isbister, Coolmore Stud & Peter M. Brant. B-Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $145,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $135,000 ylg '20 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $330,000. Last Start: 1st GI Champagne S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

Jack Christopher gets a little bit of a haircut in this week's rankings, dropping from No. 7 to No. 12, but that's a reflection of his inactivity rather than potential ability. This Munnings colt is recovering from a stress fracture discovered after he was scratched as the morning-line fave for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and although the GI Champagne S. victor rejoined trainer Brown in Florida earlier this month, he's yet to post a published workout. “He's going to be up against it, that's for sure,” Brown told TDN earlier this month when asked about making the Derby. “I don't want to rule anything out…but he's certainly behind. To get him to go a mile and a quarter I'm going to need to have something under his belt. We'll see where he takes us and if he doesn't make [the Derby] we have several other races we'd love to target with him.”

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute): Blasted home a $59 winner from well off the tailgate in Saturday's Lecomte. Trainer Keith Desormeaux said Risen Star S. is next for this four-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $37,0000 RNA at KEESEP; $17,000 OBSOCT; $80,000 OBSMAR).

Early Voting (Gun Runner): This $200,000 KEESEP colt for trainer Brown broke his maiden in a one-turn mile and is being pointed for GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct Feb. 5.

Major General (Constitution): The two-for-two winner of the Sept. 18 GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill ($265,000 KEEJAN; $420,000 KEESEP) is three breezes into his '22 comeback for trainer Pletcher, with early March preps on his radar.

Rattle N Roll (Connect): Saturday was the first breeze back for this 81-Beyer, 4 1/4 -length GI Breeders' Futurity S. victor ($55,000 KEENOV, $210,000 KEESEP). He then missed the Breeders' Cup with a foot abscess; could resurface in Mar. 12 GII Tampa Bay Derby.

Slow Down Andy (Nyquist): Reddam homebred a bit erratic through the long Los Al stretch, but prevailed in five-entrant GII Los Alamitos Futurity.

Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Runner-up in GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (FTKSEL $330,000) goes back to dirt in Holy Bull S. on Feb. 5. He wired an off-grass mile MSW at Ellis Park last July.

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A New Puncher for Violence

The new year could scarcely have opened in more familiar fashion, with Bob Baffert not only winning the GIII Sham S. for an eighth time but replicating what had meanwhile become a bitterly poignant 1-2 in the race last year.

Hopefully the names of Newgrange (Violence) and Rockefeller (Medaglia d'Oro) will not end 2022 quite so explosively freighted as those of Life Is Good (Into Mischief) and Medina Spirit (Protonico), whose respective transfer and tragedy have meanwhile become so expressive of the travails not only of their trainer, but of our entire industry.

But the levels subsequently achieved by both those colts certainly reiterated the caliber of animal Baffert reserves for this race, which was 12 months earlier chosen to launch a Horse of the Year campaign for Authentic (Into Mischief). Newgrange is duly guaranteed much attention in his quest to become the third consecutive GI Kentucky Derby winner (pending resolution of Medina Spirit's status) to graduate from the Sham.

We won't add, here, to the oceans of ink that will continue to flow on the ineligibility of Newgrange, as a resident of a barn banned by Churchill Downs, for the 10 Derby starting points that are supposed to be bestowed on the Sham winner. Instead let's just take a step back and consider what Newgrange's pedigree tells us about his potential; and what his emergence might do for the profile of his sire.

Violence has had an interesting stud career already, not least with his best horses to this point sharing what might seem an unexpected vocation as sprinters–albeit we should know, by this stage, not to make assumptions about the way his own sire, the beautiful Medaglia d'Oro, has channeled the legacy of an avowed turf influence in El Prado (Ire).

Though confined to just four starts, Violence was able to show a versatility of his own in terms of surface. Having started out on dirt in New York, winning on debut at Saratoga and then following up in the GII Nashua S., he shipped out to Hollywood Park to win the GI Futurity S. on synthetics.

Violence as a 2-year-old winning the Nashua | Jessica Hansen

Collared only by the subsequent Derby winner in the GII Fountain of Youth S., he unfortunately emerged out of that first defeat with a sesamoid fracture. Retired to Hill 'n' Dale at $15,000, Violence soon proved the star of the intake. Though he missed the 2017 freshman title by a few cents–the fortunes of champion Overanalyze, long since exported, stand in cautionary contrast–he was top by winners, and was rewarded by no fewer than 214 mares at a new fee of $25,000 the following spring. His maturing stock promptly elevated him to No. 1 second-crop sire across all indices, with eight stakes winners and 19 stakes performers. His third crop of yearlings borrowed that buzz, at an average $133,600, and his fee was hiked anew to $40,000.

But Violence then suffered a little stage fright. In 2019, he mustered just two stakes winners, and his yearling average sagged to $44,649. With his fee restored to $25,000 for 2020, Violence then steadied the ship with a spectacular, game-saving cluster of Grade I wins by colts from three different crops. The sophomore No Parole gave him a breakout success in the Woody Stephens S.; lightly raced 4-year-old Volatile added the Alfred G. Vanderbilt S.; and, though that colt was soon derailed, juvenile Dr. Schivel kept the conveyor turning in the Del Mar Futurity.

Dr. Schivel proved a crucial ally in 2021, too, ensuring that Violence's solitary graded success of the year came at the highest level in the Bing Crosby S., while only missing the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint by a nose. In the meantime, moreover, Violence had retrieved all his commercial energy. His 2020 yearlings rallied to $72,128, obviously in a challenging market; while his latest crop was right up to $116,352, crowned by a $950,000 colt sold to Repole Stables and St. Elias at the September Sale. (Auspiciously, his previous knockout score at auction, at $850,000, had turned out to be Volatile.)

Dr. Schivel (outside) in this year's Bing Crosby | Benoit

That represents superb consolidation by a horse emerging from a tricky crossroads, and reflects twin factors: one, obviously, is the vogue generated by those three Grade I winners; the other is that his 2021 yearlings graduate from that single season at $40,000, when he covered 171 mares presumably deemed worthy of a raised fee.

The overall momentum of Violence is reflected in the way his book, having slipped to 86 after his tepid racetrack campaign in 2019, rallied last spring to 159. So while he does have a small bump in the road ahead, in terms of his likely juvenile footprint for 2023, the overall “pipeline” is looking pretty good: his sophomores for this year represent his biggest book; and his incoming juveniles, his best.

The big question raised by Newgrange is whether Violence can now add a two-turn, Classic dimension to his most accomplished stock. As we've noted, Medaglia d'Oro has long proved an influence for diversity–in terms of discipline as well as surface, with Astern (Aus), Vancouver (Aus) and Warrior's Reward among his leading sprinters. Besides his sire line, another factor could be the duplication of his sixth dam, Greentree matriarch Sunday Evening, behind his granddam, whose sire is out of one of her daughters. Besides recurring in the pedigree of several fast horses, notably Irish champion sprinter Bluebird (Storm Bird), Sunday Evening is also an ancestress of other luminous turf runners in Indian Skimmer (Storm Bird) and Henrythenavigator (Kingmambo).

Storm Bird, responsible for both Bluebird and Indian Skimmer in this family, obviously gave us a huge “crossover” influence in Storm Cat. And it was Storm Cat's serial matings with Hall of Famer Sky Beauty (Blushing Groom {Fr}) that gave us the second dam of Violence. Sky Beauty's Grade I-winning dam Maplejinsky, in turn, was by the venerable turf/stamina influence Nijinsky, while also being a half-sister to the flying Dayjur (Danzig). (Literally flying, in terms of his unforgettable transition to dirt at the Breeders' Cup.) Their dam Gold Beauty, a champion sprinter by Mr. Prospector, whose son Gone West is sire of Violence's dam–admittedly one of the weaker links in this regal maternal line, with a solitary success in a nine-furlong dirt maiden at four.

Bottom line is that there are strands here that would certainly make it feasible for Violence to stretch out his stock: his own sire has obviously given us some real monsters round two turns, unsurprisingly as a grandson of Sadler's Wells; while Maplejinsky also features behind some pretty sturdy operators (third dam of Point of Entry {Dynaformer}, for example). But the propensity of Violence to throw very fast horses, to this point, is equally coherent on both sides of his pedigree. So while he does have a Grade I winner over 10 furlongs in Argentina, it appears instructive that one of his first stars, Talk Veuve To Me, ended up reverting to sprints despite some pretty stout influences in her family.

Hill 'n' Dale's Violence | Sarah Andrew

Of course, a reputation for speed does Violence no commercial harm at all. But what are the prospects of Newgrange, who won his maiden at six and was not pressured at a mile, stretching out on the Derby trail?

Well, it will certainly help if he keeps getting the same obliging treatment accorded to so many Baffert speed horses. Newgrange was only the latest to be so indulged, setting leisurely fractions in the Sham and duly retaining ample gas to assert in the stretch.

One thing we can say for sure is that he was well found as a yearling, for $125,000 by SF/Starlight/Madaket (subsequently joined on the racecard by several other powerful interests) as deep as Hip 2474 in the Brookdale Sales consignment at the September Sale. He was co-bred with Jack Mandato by Black Rock Stables, who had raced Violence and evidently retain a stake in his stud career despite meanwhile dispersing much other stock.

Newgrange is out of the unraced Empire Maker mare Bella Chianti, herself co-bred with Stone Farm from Mandato's extremely useful and tough racemare Bella Chiarra (Phone Trick), winner of nine of 29 starts (chiefly around 8/9f) including the GII Rampart H. at Gulfstream.

All five of Bella Chianti's foals to have raced have won, albeit only Newgrange at a smart level. More auspicious, perhaps, is the fact that her full-sister, though herself a modest performer, is the dam of the tragic Amalfi Sunrise (Constitution), lost to laminitis after winning her only two starts a couple of years ago, including the GII Sorrento S. by six lengths. We'll never know how far Amalfi Sunrise might have stretched out, but she did look extremely brisk on what we saw. That makes it hard to be adamant that her dam's sister will be putting much of their sire's Belmont-winning stamina into the Newgrange equation. (Be that as it may, Empire Maker certainly has an increasing legacy as a broodmare sire, newly enhanced in 2021 by Silver State {Hard Spun}, Mandaloun {Into Mischief} and Rock Your World {Candy Ride (Arg)}.)

Medaglia d'Oro | Darley

Newgrange's third dam is a stakes-sprinting daughter of the obscure Maryland sire Count Brook out of a modest mare by an unraced son of Nearco (Ity) imported from Britain, River War (GB). Nonetheless she produced a couple of other accomplished performers besides Bella Chiarra: a dual graded stakes winner on turf, David Copperfield (Halo), plus the hardy Young At Heart, twice beaten only narrowly in Grade II dirt sprints–despite being by Ferdinand.

You have to go back quite a long way to find where this trio might have dredged any genetic class: to the 1922 foal Primrose, in fact, as a Jerome H.-winning half-sister to a Travers winner. And, even as one who likes to unpick the deeper mesh of pedigrees, I'm not going to suggest that Newgrange must owe an awful lot to his eighth dam!

The real nugget on Newgrange's page is plainly his granddam Bella Chiarra–and her sire Phone Trick, obviously a very quick horse himself, owes his principal broodmare laurels to two horses, Zensational and Dawn Approach (Ire), who were unusually dashing for sons of Unbridled's Song and New Approach (Ire), respectively.

The onus remains on Violence, then, to show that his glossy physical stamp relays not just speed but speed that can be carried at the highest level. Clearly Newgrange couldn't be in better hands, for those purposes. As such, he looks like an important horse in his sire's developing career.

With that pedigree behind him, and that robust physique out front, Violence is not just positioning himself as an affordable alternative to his sire. Arguably the three premier achievers by Medaglia d'Oro are two females, Rachel Alexandra and Songbird, and a gelding, Golden Sixty (Aus). While he's still reliably coming up with class horses, and Rockefeller may yet become another, Medaglia d'Oro has now turned 23 and his principal male heir has yet to be definitively anointed. Violence does face fresh competition, from the likes of Bolt d'Oro and Higher Power, but Newgrange could be the herald of a decisive new phase in his candidature.

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