Equibase Analysis: Never Be Enough Poised To Upset La Canada

Saturday's running of the Grade 3, $100,000 La Canada Stakes at Santa Anita Park features a field of seven mares, most of which have made their mark in similar stakes recently. Leading the field in terms of career earnings is Hard Not to Love, who won the one-turn Grade 2 Santa Monica Stakes 11 months ago and who has three runner-up finishes in graded stakes since, most recently in the G2 Zenyatta Stakes last fall. Fighting Mad is a two-time G1 winner, having captured the Santa Maria Stakes at Santa Anita last May, as well as the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes last August at Del Mar, both at the distance of the La Canada.

Proud Emma just won the identical G3 Bayakoa Stakes at Los Alamitos last month, with Message finishing second and Miss Stormy D fourth. Never Be Enough is the new face in the older female dirt division, running on conventional dirt for the first time after eight races on turf or all-weather following coming to the U.S. from Great Britain. Sanenus rounds out the field and also appears to fit with these off a runner-up effort in the G3 Chilukki Stakes in November.

Although she has never run a race on a conventional dirt surface, I believe Never Be Enough can run well enough to post the upset in this year's La Canada Stakes. This hard knocking mare leads the field by far in races run in her career (29), having won seven and finishing second in five others, including a four for 10 record in 2020. Shipping from trainer Manuel Badilla's Golden Gate Fields base last fall, Never Be Enough (GB) won the Kathryn Crosby Stakes (111 Equibase Speed Figure) on the turf at Del Mar then two races later was closing strongly late and ended up second in the Robert J. Frankel Stakes, ending up beaten just three-quarters of a length at the end by Mucho Unusual (a grade 1 stakes winner). That 111 figure matches up perfectly with the 112 figures Fighting Mad earned winning the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes and with the 112 figure Hard Not to Love earned when second in the Santa Maria Stakes. As such, if Never Be Enough can transfer her form to the main track, she has every right to run well enough to win this race

Fighting Mad hasn't been seen since finishing third as the prohibitive favorite in the Zenyatta Stakes last September, a disappointing effort which led to her skipping the Breeders' Cup Distaff and taking time off to prepare for her five year old campaign. Prior to that, Fighting Mad led from start to finish and dominated against short five and six horse fields in the Santa Maria Stakes (117 figure) and Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (112 figure). In the La Canada, I expect Fighting Mad to secure the lead at the start and try to control the pace to the finish, which is certainly possible. However, horses like Message, Sanenus and Miss Stormy D may also want the lead or to be very close to the front, which may see Fighting Mad run more like she did in the Zenyatta when passed late in the stretch.

Proud Emma just won the identical Bayakoa Stakes at Los Alamitos with a 104 figure and three races before that won the Tranquility Lake Stakes with a 105 figure. In both races, Proud Emma closed from off the pace so in the La Canada she has a chance to save ground from the rail and close into the pacesetter in the stretch although she would need to improve to get to the 112 figure level it appears the winner of this race will need to earn to win.

Hard Not to Love is certainly a contender but I don't think she can win the La Canada. In three of her four races around two turns she managed second place, but all were in short fields of six or less. The best of those earned a 112 figure when second in the Santa Maria. However, Fighting Mad won that race after leading from the start and that's a more likely scenario in my opinion than Hard Not to Love turning the tables on her foe.

The rest of the La Canada Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Message (105), Miss Stormy D (111) and Sanenus (97).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Never Be Enough (GB)
Fighting Mad
Proud Emma

La Canada Stakes – Grade 3
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, Jan. 9, 2021 – Post Time 6:30 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward
Purse: $100,000

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Grade 3 Red Carpet Draws Competitors From All Across The Country To Del Mar

Ten fillies and mares will test their lung and leg power over a mile and three eighths on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course Thanksgiving Day at Del Mar in the seventh edition of the $100,000 Red Carpet Handicap. Racing on Turkey Day traditionally starts early – 11:00 a.m. – with the thought of getting fans home in time to sit down for their big dinners. There will be no fans this year, but nonetheless the early racing holds, meaning the stakes – Race six on the eight-race program — should go off at approximately 1:30 p.m.

The Grade 3 Red Carpet has drawn a pair of east coast invaders from the potent barns of trainers H. Graham Motion and Chad Brown and they both appear to be serious contenders in the 11-panel testing. Motion's horse is Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Cloonan and Thornton's Blame Debbie, a 3-year-old daughter of Blame currently working on a three-race win streak. Brown has sent out Dubb, Madaket Stables or Wonder Stables' Orglandes, a 4-year-old French-bred filly by the Irish stallion Le Harve who clicked on Oct. 9 at Belmont Park in her second stateside start. Also coming west to handle the riding assignments on those two are a pair of top New York reinsmen, Manny Franco for Blame Debbie and Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Orglandes.

There's a trio of local ladies who plan to lead the not-in-my-backyard contingent – Barber or Wachtel Stable's California Kook, Charles or Gordon's Never Be Enough and Bederian, Kamberian or Nakkashian, et al's Going to Vegas.

California Kook has been tackling tougher of late and has been competitive while doing so. The 3-year-old Boisterous filly was second in the G1 Del Mar Oaks on August 22, then a close-up fourth to colts in the G2 Del Mar Derby on September 6 and finally fifth, beaten only three lengths, in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland on October 10. Thursday she'll have the saddle services of another east coaster in Joel Rosario for trainer Peter Miller.

Never Be Enough, a 5-year-old British-bred mare by Sir Percy, tallied on opening day (Oct. 31) of the Bing Crosby Season in the Kathryn Crosby Stakes at a mile on the grass. The stretch runner has reeled off three victories in a row in the past three months, two of them against allowance horses at Golden Gate Fields. Tiago Pereira was aboard the chestnut for her Kathryn Crosby score and trainer Manuel Badilla will have him on once more on Thanksgiving.

Going to Vegas has turned in a series of sharp efforts of late while just missing finding the winner's circle. The 3-year-old by Goldencents most recently missed in a photo to the tough filly Warren's Showtime in the G3 Autumn Miss Stakes on the lawn Oct. 17 at Santa Anita. Trainer Richard Baltas sticks with her regular rider of late, Mario Gutierrez.

Here's the full field for the Red Carpet from the rail out with riders:

California Kook; Never Be Enough; Branham, Baltas or McClanahan's Colonial Creed (Flavien Prat); Orglandes; Going to Vegas; St George Farm Racing's Woodfin (Jose Valdivia, Jr.); Jay Em Ess Stable's Aunt Lubie (Victor Espinoza); Blame Debby; C R K Stable's Hollywood Girl (Mike Smith), and Hronis Racing's Quick (Umberto Rispoli).

Trainer Motion won the Red Carpet with his mare Rusty Slippers in 2015. The stakes record for the 11-furlong distance was set by India Mantuana in winning the 2018 edition of this race in 2:14.50. The course record was set by Spring House in 2008 at 2:11.14.

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Never Be Enough Rallies Late For Kathryn Crosby Score On Del Mar Opening Day

Ron Charles and Samuel Gordon's mare Never Be Enough, a shipper from Golden Gate Fields in the Bay Area making her first stakes start stateside, lagged early in the one-mile Kathryn Crosby Stakes on the Del Mar lawn Saturday, then came running hard through the lane to capture the overnight by a length as the seaside track opened its fall racing season.

Tiago Pereira rode the winner, a 5-year-old daughter of the British sire Sir Percy bred in England. Her trainer is Manuel Badilla, who shipped his chestnut mare south, then rooted her home from his Golden Gate base.

Finishing second in the $75,000 turf test for fillies and mares was Branham, Baltas and McClanahan's Colonial Creed, who had three-quarters of a length on Donnie Crevier's Cordiality. Deborah McAnally Trust's She's Our Charm, the race favorite at 19-10, led for much of the trip, but was outrun late and finished fifth.

Never Be Enough, who covered the mile distance in 1:33.87, paid $14.80, $7.40 and $5.20 across the board. Colonial Creed returned $8.20 and $5.40 and Cordiality paid $4.20 to show.

The winner picked up a check for $46,740, increasing her earnings to $147,425. She's now finished first in seven of 27 starts, including races in Europe where she went over the jumps and tackled the boys on more than one occasion.

Three riders won two races each on the nine-race card – Mike Smith, Juan Hernandez and apprentice Alexis Centeno. Nine different trainers had winners during the afternoon.

Racing resumes at Del Mar on Sunday with first post at 12:30 p.m.


TIAGO PEREIRA (Never Be Enough, winner) – “My agent (Patty Sterling) spoke to the trainer (Manuel Badilla) this morning about this horse. He said she's got lots of speed and could go to the front. But if you go to the front, she's not going to finish. He said take a hold of her and get her to relax. Then get them in the straight. That's just what I did and when I asked the horse in the lane she had a great kick. Really good way to start the meet for me.”

MANUEL BADILLA (Never Be Enough, winner) – By phone from Golden Gate Fields: “I was a little nervous when she was last at the half-mile pole. Then I saw the fractions and I wasn't as nervous. This mare has a turn of foot and she's a real runner. The last race up here she beat a horse of mine (Blue Diva) I've won a couple stakes with. Back in Europe she ran against boys and in hurdles and on the flat. Talk about an iron horse. She'll ship back here Tuesday and we'll decide what's next from there.”


FRACTIONS:  :22.59  :45.94  1:10.08  1:22.11  1:33.87

The stakes win was the first in the Kathryn Crosby for rider Pereira and his first of the meet. He now has nine stakes wins at Del Mar.

The stakes win was the first ever at Del Mar for trainer Badilla.

The winning owners are Ron Charles of Sunland, Calif., and his partner Samuel Gordon.

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