Nashville | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Nashville Stands Out In Runhappy Malibu Stakes

The holiday present the racing world opens on the day after Christmas is always a fantastic afternoon of racing on opening day of the winter-spring meeting at Santa Anita. The bright shiny bow on that present is, as usual, the Grade 1, $300,000 Runhappy Malibu Stakes.

Six horses are entered and each is special in his own right, with five of the sextet stakes winners. In terms of the level of stakes won by some of the entrants, we have to start with the Bob Baffert trained Charlatan, who crossed the finish line first in the rescheduled G1 Arkansas Derby in May, only to be stripped of that victory thereafter for a medication violation. Bob Baffert, who has won the Malibu three times previously, also saddles Thousand Words, winner of the 2019 G2 Los Alamitos Futurity as well as the Shared Belief Stakes this past summer.

Collusion Illusion won the G1 Bing Crosby Stakes in August so among the three graded stakes winners he is the only one with a win in a sprint like the Malibu. Then there's Nashville, undefeated in three starts including the Perryville Stakes last month in the sizzling time of 1:07.8. Independence Hall is no slouch, having won the G3 Nashua Stakes in November 2019 and back in form off a win last month following seven months off. Express Train has been first or second in all four of his races at a mile or less, and although this will be his first try in a graded stakes around one turn he can't be ruled out as a contender.

In this handicapper's opinion, this year's Malibu Stakes is Nashville's to lose. His effort in the Perryville Stakes last month at Keeneland was scintillating, winning by 3 1/2 lengths when galloping the last few yards after having run his opponents off their feet. The track that day was fast but fair and the 115 Equibase Speed Figure bears that out. Having earned a 106 figure winning his debut in September at Saratoga, then 113 five weeks later, Nashville is lightly enough raced that we have likely not seen his best yet. Since the Perryville, Nashville has put in three sizzling workouts at trainer Steve Asmussen's winter base at Fair Grounds in Louisiana, consisting of three five furlongs workouts, the most recent in :58.8 which was the best of 20 on the day. With the trainer's number one jockey Ricardo Santana in the saddle for the Malibu as he was for the Perryville, and with no horse in the field faster in the first quarter mile, Nashville may be running against the record book in terms of time in this year's race.

Independence Hall is the only horse I could see beating Nashville, based on how the race is likely to be run, and based on the fact he's making his second start back after seven months off as well as coming off a career-best effort. Independence Hall won the first three races of his career starting back in September of 2019. His second and third career wins came in stakes, all around one turn including the Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct last November with a 107 figure. Next winning the Jerome Stakes and putting himself into the early Derby picture, Independence Hall finished second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, before a poor fifth place effort in the Florida Derby. Away from the races from the end of March until last month, Independence Hall changed trainers to Michael McCarthy and came back better than ever with a new career-best 108 figure effort at six and one-half furlongs. Likely pointing to this race with that prep, Independence Hall has put in two best of the day workouts since then, the most recent :59 flat for five furlongs which was the best of 83 at the distance on the day. He gets a good outside post in case the pace is hot and with logical improvement off his 108 last race figure could potentially post the upset.

Regarding Charlatan, who is likely to be either the betting favorite, or second betting favorite behind Nashville, there are some serious concerns in my opinion about his probability to win compared to others. First, he hasn't been seen since winning the Arkansas Derby nearly eight months ago and in spite of some excellent workouts, he doesn't stand out based on his best efforts. In the race prior to the Arkansas Derby at Santa Anita in March, Charlatan earned a 108 figure just on par with the figure Independence Hall earned last month and much lower than the 113 and 115 figures Nashville earned in his two most recent races, as well as shy of the 116 figure Collusion Illusion earned winning the Bing Crosby Stakes this summer. Next, in spite of having won this race three times previously, Bob Baffert just does not have a good record with horses coming back from layoffs in the two big races for 3-year-olds on opening weekend – the Malibu Stakes and the La Brea Stakes (for fillies). According to a query I ran using STATS Race Lens, Baffert has not won in seven tries over the last five years with horses coming back from layoffs longer than two months. His most recent win in this race, with McKinzie, came off a layoff of just under two months. Particularly, horses which last ran in May similar to Charlatan fared poorly, such as Lord Nelson (2015), Mor Spirit (2016) and Solomini (2018). With those results in mind I'm taking a stand against Charlatan, also noting he has led from start to finish in all three races to date and there's little doubt he's not going to have the early lead against Nashville.

As to the rest of the field, Express Train earned a career-best figure of 112 when second at a mile in late September over the track before a failed attempt on turf and could return to competitive form back on the main track so could get a piece. Collusion Illusion rallied from seventh to win the Bing Crosby with a 116 figure and before that won the Lazaro Barrera Stakes at the distance of six and one-half furlongs so he could be making up ground late and is another with a shot to finish in-the-money. Thousand Words ran the second worst race of his career when last seen in October, finishing eighth in the Preakness Stakes. His best efforts winning the Shared Belief Stakes and Robert B. Lewis Stakes earned 107 figures but both were two-turn races so he would need to run better than he ever has to beat many of these.

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Nashville
Independence Hall

Runhappy Malibu Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Santa Anita
Saturday, December 26 – Post Time 6:30 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $300,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Nashville Stands Out In Runhappy Malibu Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Charlatan ‘Healthy’ For Highly-Anticipated Matchup With Nashville In Saturday’s Malibu

Charlatan, one in a battalion of bluebloods based in Bob Baffert's barn, faces off against Nashville in the Grade 1 Runhappy Malibu Stakes on opening day, Saturday, Dec. 26, the marquee event as historic Santa Anita ushers in its 84th season of world-class racing.

This year's Malibu is arguably one of the most anticipated in the event's 70 runnings, pitting two immensely talented sons of 2004 Eclipse Award champion male sprinter Speightstown against one another.

The Malibu has been won in the past by a Who's Who of Thoroughbreds, among them Runhappy (2015), Ferdinand (1986), Precisionist (1984), Spectacular Bid (1980), Ancient Title (1974), Damascus (1968), Buckpasser (1966) Native Diver (1962), Olden Times (1961), Hillsdale (1958), Round Table (1957) Determine (1955) and Calumet Farm's star filly A Gleam (1953).

Last year it was won by star-crossed Omaha Beach, whose potential for further greatness on the track ended when he was retired to stud after a filling in his right hind leg prevented him from running in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational on Jan. 25 of this year.

Santa Anita's traditional opening day is saturated with stakes, six in all, three of them Grade 1's: the $300,000 Malibu for 3-year-olds at seven furlongs; the $300,000 La Brea for 3-year-old fillies at seven furlongs; and the $300,000 American Oaks for 3-year-old fillies at 1 ¼ miles on turf.

The Malibu, La Brea and American Oaks are the final three Grade 1 stakes to be run in the United States this year.

First post time on opening day will be 11 a.m.

Charlatan, a $700,000 chestnut colt, finished first in each of his three starts by a combined margin of 22 lengths but was disqualified from his six-length triumph in a division of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby May 2 on a medication violation. He has not raced since but is firing bullets for his return, a display as synonymous with Baffert as his signature white hair.

Through Dec. 6, Baffert led all trainers in Grade 1 wins this year with 15, four more than Chad Brown.

”Charlatan is doing really well,” said Baffert, who will be seeking his fourth Malibu victory, having won in 2018 with McKinzie, 2013 with Shakin It Up and 2011 with The Factor. “You can only do so much coming off a layoff going seven eighths…

“He's healthy and that's the main thing; he should run well.”

Baffert had to stop on Charlatan after May 2 due to a minor filling in a front ankle that he described at the time as “not even a flake.”

Saturday at Santa Anita, Charlatan worked five furlongs in :59.80, a tad off the time of Malibu contender Independence Hall, who went the same distance in a bullet :59 flat for Michael McCarthy.

Baffert also plans to run multiple graded stakes winner Thousand Words in the Malibu with John Velazquez aboard. Thousand Words last raced Oct. 3 in the Preakness, finishing eighth after pressing the pace. The son of Pioneerof the Nile has been working lights out for the Malibu, as two bullet breezes on Nov. 12 and Nov. 28 would attest, in addition to his five-furlong drill Friday in 59.80.

Nashville, a bay colt trained by Steve Asmussen, also has had three starts, winning by a combined margin of nearly 25 lengths, including the restricted Perryville at Keeneland by 3 ½ lengths on Nov. 7, in which he set a track record for six furlongs of 1:07.89. He has been working brilliantly since, including a bullet five furlongs in a minute flat, breezing, at Fair Grounds on Dec. 1.

Nashville is owned by China Horse Club and WinStar Farm and was bought for $460,000 by CHC and Maverick Racing, the purchasing arm of WinStar, from the Lane's End consignment to the 2018 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

He will be ridden by 28-year-old Ricardo Santana Jr. from the Panamanian town of El Chorrillo. Santana, a 2008 graduate of the Laffit Pincay Jr. school for jockeys in Panama, also will do honors for Asmussen on Finite in the La Brea.

Strongly supporting the Malibu, La Brea and American Oaks are the Grade 2, $200,000 San Antonio Stakes for 3-year-olds and up at 1 1/16 miles, a major steppingstone to the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap on March 6; the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile for 3-year-olds on turf; and the grassy $75,000 Lady of Shamrock Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at a mile. Overall, $1,375,000 in stakes money will be up for grabs.

Baffert has four horses nominated to the La Brea and plans to run all four: Merneith, who worked five furlongs Saturday in :59.80; Golden Principal, Himiko and Provocation. Himiko breezed four furlongs in :48 flat and Provocation in :47.40, both on Sunday, while Golden Principal went six furlongs Friday in 1:13.20.

Santa Anita's stakes spectacular continues on Sunday with the Grade 3 Robert J. Frankel Stakes for fillies and mares, three and up at 1 1/8 miles on turf and the $75,000 Eddie Logan Stakes for 2-year-olds at a mile on the grass.

The post Charlatan ‘Healthy’ For Highly-Anticipated Matchup With Nashville In Saturday’s Malibu appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Two Unbeaten Sons Of Speightstown Head Entries For Malibu Stakes

A pair of unbeatens, Bob Baffert's Charlatan and Steve Asmussen's Nashville head a powerful group of probable starters in Santa Anita's Grade 1, $300,000 Runhappy Malibu Stakes at seven furlongs on opening day, Saturday, Dec. 26. Santa Anita's traditional opening day headliner, the Malibu, the final Grade 1 of the year for 3-year-olds, will be run for the 74th time. (The race was run in divisions in 1972, 1975, 1977 & 1984).

Idle since taking a division of the G1 Arkansas Derby by six lengths on May 2, Charlatan was subsequently disqualified from purse money due to a medication violation, so he thus officially has two wins from three starts. Including the Arkansas Derby, Charlatan, who broke his maiden and took a first condition allowance here this past winter, has won his three starts by a combined 22 lengths.

In a performance that had the racing world abuzz on Breeders' Cup Classic Day at Keeneland Nov. 7, Nashville powered to a 3 ½ length victory in a six furlong ungraded stakes, stopping the clock at 1:07.80 and thus earning a solid 102 Beyer Speed figure—two points less than Whitmore's 104 Beyer in the Grade I Breeders' Cup Sprint over the same surface. Heavily favored in three starts, all sprints, Nashville, like Charlatan, is a son of champion sprinter Speightstown. A first-out maiden winner Sept. 2 at Saratoga, he has won all three of his races in gate to wire fashion by a combined 24 ¾ lengths.

Baffert will also be represented in the Malibu by three-time stakes winner Thousand Words, who has been idle since well beaten in the G1 Preakness Stakes Oct. 3.

Mark Glatt's Grade 1 stakes winning sprinter Collusion Illusion is also listed as probable and although he was well beaten by Whitmore when shuffled back early in the Breeder's Cup Sprint, he ran a much better-than-looked race and should give a good account of himself back on his home ground.

Nominations closed Dec. 10 and among those also listed as probable for the Malibu are the John Shirreffs-trained Express Train, Michael McCarthy's Independence Hall and Doug O'Neill's Strongconstitution.

Opening day entries for the Runhappy Malibu and five other stakes, the G1 La Brea, the G1 American Oaks, the G2 Mathis Brothers Mile, the G2 San Antonio and the Lady of Shamrock Stakes, will be taken at Santa Anita on Monday, Dec. 21.

Although there is still no public admittance due to continuing restrictions relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, Santa Anita's races can be viewed live at santaanita.com/live and fans can watch and wager on these races via a number of ADW platforms, including 1st.com/Bet.

Special early first post time on opening day is at 11:00 a.m. For additional information, please visit santaanita.com or call (626) 574-RACE.

The post Two Unbeaten Sons Of Speightstown Head Entries For Malibu Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Charlatan Could Meet Nashville in Potential Runhappy Malibu Showdown

The GI Runhappy Malibu S. on Santa Anita’s opening day program could potentially feature a clash between two of the more exciting sophomores in training.

The immensely talented duo of Charlatan and Nashville, both ‘TDN Rising Stars’ and by leading sire Speightstown, are currently being aimed at the prestigious Dec. 26 seven-furlong contest.

The Bob Baffert-trained Charlatan most recently crossed the wire a dominating six-length, wire-to-wire winner in the split-division GI Arkansas Derby May 2, but was subsequently stripped of the victory and demoted to ninth after testing positive for the Class 2 drug lidocaine. He missed an intended start in the GI Belmont S. due to a minor ankle injury.

The chestnut romped in his two prior trips to the post earlier this term at Santa Anita by a combined 16 lengths with Beyer Speed Figures of 105 and 106, respectively.

Bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, the $700,000 Keeneland September yearling is campaigned in partnership by the powerhouse line-up of SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Frederick Hertrich, III, John D. Fielding and Golconda Stables. Stonestreet also stayed in for a piece. It was announced in May that Hill ‘n’ Dale had purchased the breeding rights to the son of MGSW & MGISP Authenticity (Quiet American).

“Originally, Baffert was considering either the [GI] Cigar Mile or the Malibu, but he just wasn’t ready in time for this weekend,” Jack Wolf of Starlight Racing said. “He’s breezing well and aiming for the Malibu. There were some extenuating circumstances with the lidocaine positive–not to make an excuse–but I just want him to get back racing, stay sound and do what we thought he could do. And this will be a great test for him.”

Charlatan has posted six workouts since late October, most recently firing a six-furlong bullet in 1:13 (1/7) in Arcadia Dec. 2 (XBTV Video). After some filling appeared to his front ankle following a June 1 workout, an MRI revealed chips which required minor surgery.

“According to Baffert, it wasn’t anything serious,” Wolf said. “I don’t think it was a function of the injury, but it did take him a while to get back and being ready for a race. You know how horses are though, and Baffert knows him better than anybody else. I think he’s got him pointed for the right spot.”

The Malibu field could also include: GIII Nashua S. and Jerome S. hero Independence Hall (Constitution), a smart winner in his Del Mar comebacker Nov. 8; and GI Bing Crosby S. winner Collusion Illusion (Twirling Candy).

“Boy, I tell you,” Wolf added. “That Nashville–[Starlight advisor] Frankie Brothers and I were walking out of Keeneland Breeders’ Cup week and [Steve Asmussen assistant] Scott Blasi was schooling the horse in the paddock and we both stopped and asked who it was. That’s how good looking he is. We’ll have our hands full with him. But from a racing standpoint, it’s going to be a great contest.”

After bypassing the GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Keeneland, the undefeated Nashville instead put on a show on the undercard, setting a new track record for six furlongs in 1:07.89 while being geared down late en route to a jaw-dropping 3 1/2-length, front-running score in the Perryville S. Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect), meanwhile, completed the same distance in 1:08.61 seven races later while upsetting the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

The CHC Inc. and WinStar Farm colorbearer, a $460,000 Keeneland September acquisition, debuted with a double-digit length victory in the Saratoga slop Sept. 2, then posted a career-high 103 Beyer Speed Figure in an equally impressive Keeneland allowance score Oct. 10. Both wins were against older horses.

“Look, I don’t think it’s going to be any easier of a race than the Breeders’ Cup was,” WinStar’s Elliott Walden said. “I think the quality in the Malibu is going to be similar to what he would’ve faced in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but he will have the benefit of another start now. The way the whole thing shook out with him running faster than the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, maybe I should’ve run him in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.”

Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, Nashville has turned in two workouts since, led by a five-furlong warning shot in 1:00 (1/43) at Fair Grounds Dec. 1.

“The race is setting up as a fabulous race,” Walden said. “I think it’s going to be a really good one. We’re really excited about the race. Nashville is doing super and we want to test him against some quality.”

Produced by the unraced Mizzen Mast mare Veronique, Nashville hails from the extended female family of GI Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo (Holy Bull) and MGISW Tiago (Pleasant Tap). He was bred in Kentucky by Breffni Farm.

“We’ve been blessed with a lot of good horses through the 20- year history of WinStar Farm,” Walden concluded. “I’m not sure if he’s not the second-best horse we’ve ever had behind [Triple Crown winner] Justify. Time will tell. He does things that are incredible. Just watching him run gives you chills and very few horses come along like that.”

The post Charlatan Could Meet Nashville in Potential Runhappy Malibu Showdown appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post