This Side Up: Happy Days Here Again

A year that began with the loss of two of the most lavish, Prince Khaled Abdullah and Sheikh Hamdan al Maktoum, is aptly measuring the reinvigoration of the breed achieved by modern investors from the same deserts where it first took root. Godolphin owes Derby wins at both Epsom and the Curragh to colts by Prince Khaled's greatest bequest, Frankel (GB); while its U.S. division laid down a marker of continuity and vitality when Mystic Guide (Ghostzapper) won the G1 Dubai World Cup just three days after its founder's brother was laid to rest in a nearby cemetery.

While Sheikh Hamdan's own bloodstock empire, Shadwell, begins to evolve its future strategies under his daughter, Sheikha Hissa, its American arm has been emulating the momentum of Godolphin. (That stable, remember, may be headed by Sheikh Mohammed, but Sheikh Hamdan contributed significantly to its development). Both have a Classic winner apiece, in Malathaat (Curlin) and Essential Quality (Tapit), while last Saturday both also won Grade II prizes within barely an hour, Zaajel (Street Sense) in the Mother Goose S. and Maxfield (Street Sense) in the Stephen Foster S.

Malathaat and Zaajel attest to the wisdom of the choice made by Sheikh Hamdan last year, on the retirement from training of Kiaran McLaughlin. Todd Pletcher increasingly has the look of the safest pair of hands in the country, having meanwhile also been selected by the powerful owners of Life Is Good (Into Mischief), Country Grammer (Tonalist) and Following Sea (Runhappy) as sanctuary from the Bob Baffert storm.

As we've remarked before, Pletcher remains closer in age to Chad Brown and Brad Cox than to Baffert, and certainly has many miles left on the clock relative to the achievements that secured him the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility. It's good to see the holder of a record seven Eclipse Awards reminding his younger rivals, who won the last five between them, that he remains a master in his prime.

Pletcher has already produced a juvenile to set the pre-Saratoga standard in Double Thunder (Super Saver), last-to-first winner of the GIII Bashford Manor S. last weekend after pardonably gasping through an opening quarter of :21 flat. Now he saddles another son of Super Saver, the unbeaten Happy Saver, as the obvious danger when Mystic Guide makes his first appearance since Dubai in the GII Suburban S. at Belmont Saturday.

With Double Thunder scoring on the same card as Mexican sensation Letruska, Super Saver is certainly having one of those finger-wagging spells we know to expect from exported stallions. His sale to Turkey at the end of 2019 was announced the same day as that of Daredevil, who promptly earned repatriation with a GI Kentucky Oaks one-two and a GI Preakness S. success. But Super Saver, being five years older, is presumably gone beyond recall.

It must be tough for the guys at WinStar–who of course bred Super Saver, as well as Double Thunder–to see the caliber of stock left behind by both stallions. But it wasn't really WinStar who exported Daredevil. The market did. That spring, he had received just 21 mares. And while Super Saver did manage a book of 136, the wind had meanwhile turned against him. At the yearling sales, his median sank from $75,000 the previous year to $28,500: pretty disastrous, against a $50,000 conception fee. Daredevil, after all, had himself covered 140 mares only the previous year. Once the commercial market pulls that plug, it's damned hard to push it back.

Be all that as it may, it's heartening to see Runhappy recovering so persuasively from a slow start with his first crop; and let's hope that Happy Saver can also go on and give himself a real chance at stud. Because it certainly feels important that Super Saver has heirs recycling his genes in Kentucky: besides extending the precarious branch of the Raise A Native line through Majestic Prince, he also represents a noble Ogden Phipps family.

(Another of his sons, incidentally, had a Chilean Group 1 winner last weekend. Competitive Edge was moved on from Ashford last year, with only a second crop of juveniles on the track, but stands in the top 10 third-crop sires and duly remains entitled to thrive at his new base in Texas).

Happy Saver, homebred by the Wertheimer brothers, doubles down his stud potential by introducing none other than Weekend Surprise as his third dam. (Her son A.P. Indy, remember, is Super Saver's damsire). So there was a real premium on that fast-track Grade I success last fall, when Happy Saver beat Mystic Guide in only his fourth start in the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Those of us who treasure the heritage of races like the Suburban will be anxious to see this rematch restore due resonance to annals formerly crowded by many of the most evocative names in the American breed: from the likes of Ben Brush, Imp and Beldame, in the old Sheepshead Bay days, to a golden sequence in the 1950s and 1960s encompassing Tom Fool, Nashua, Bold Ruler, Sword Dancer, Kelso, Buckpasser and Dr. Fager. Let's hope that a race relegated to Grade II status in 2009 can redeem its lack of quantity with some authentic quality.

Those glorious old names remind us again how the world has changed, with horses today often bred and trained like porcelain. A wearily familiar complaint, perhaps, but one that needs reprising on a weekend when the G1 Eclipse S. in Britain drew four starters and the GIII Los Alamitos Derby had to be reopened. What a pleasure, then, to see throwback Firenze Fire (Poseidon's Warrior) tackle another significant new recruit to Pletcher's barn, Mind Control (Stay Control), in the GII John A. Nerud S. on the Independence Day program.

Firenze Fire has won 14 of 33 starts in compiling just short of $2.5 million. Yes, he started out with a trainer who has some fast talking to do, if he is not to become a lasting shorthand for much that is wrong with our sport. But the horse has found wholesome rehabilitation with Kelly Breen, becoming another real feather in that snap-brim fedora over the cheerful face of New Jersey racing. Breen has favored the veteran sprinter with the first real break of his career, and brought him back as good as ever in his fifth campaign. Round a circuit he adores, maybe Firenze Fire can remind seven-for-20 millionaire Mind Control that he is, by comparison, only just getting going.

It's a striking showdown, for sure: between a former steam-fitting apprentice who learned the ropes under Mid-Atlantic stalwarts like Ben Perkins, Sr. and John Forbes, and the meticulous interpreter of the D. Wayne Lukas revolution who put the “super” into the “super trainer” concept–with notably apt dividends when Super Saver won the Derby.

It wouldn't be too hard to choose between Breen and Pletcher, if you were casting the roles of snappy dresser Fonzie and clean-cut Richie Cunningham. But, however the script unfolds between them, at least the holiday weekend offers us horses and horsemen alike eligible to restore something like Happy Days.

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Equibase Analysis: Mystic Guide Likely To Best Happy Saver In Suburban

Although this Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Suburban Stakes drew just six entrants, it is still likely to prove to be a very exciting race because of two horses – Happy Saver and Mystic Guide. Both 4-year-olds and lightly raced, Happy Saver won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last October and returned to the races at the end of May for a big win, while Mystic Guide returns from three months off after having won the Grade 1, $12 million Dubai World Cup in March, having finished second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup the only time he faced Happy Saver previously.

The contention does not end there, with Informative entering the race off a 79 to 1 upset in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile Stakes last month. Moretti finished third in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Stakes last month following 10 months away from the races and finished second in last year's Suburban so appears to fit here. Max Player and Prioritize round out the field and appear off form, with Max Player coming into the race off a poor sixth place effort in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special and with Prioritize having finished fifth in the same race.

Assuming Mystic Guide is ready to run following a bit over three months off, I think he is more probable to win than Happy Saver based on his win in the Dubai World Cup near the end of March. Now with a record of 4-2-2 in eight career starts, Mystic Guide won the Jim Dandy Stakes last summer as a 3-year-old in only the fifth start of his career, before stretching out to 10 furlongs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont last October. In that race, Mystic Guide rallied to make the lead by a head with an eight of a mile to go over Happy Saver but was beaten three-quarters of a length at the end, earning a then career-best 104 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure in the process.

Taking four and one-half months off to mature, Mystic Guide made short work of six other horses in the Razorback Stakes in his 2021 debut in February with a 108 figure, before easily defeating 11 other horses in the Dubai World Cup at the distance of the Suburban. The World Cup effort earned a 115 figure, and considering the Suburban will be his third start of the year we can expect even better. Having put in a nice series of workouts since returning to North America, including a best of 33 drill one week ago at the distance of a half-mile, Mystic Guide gets a slight edge over a very worthy opponent in Happy Saver.

Happy Saver actually earned the best ™ figure of his career in his second career start, last July at Saratoga at nine furlongs. The 116 figure was tremendous being as he had only run once before, winning his debut by five lengths in June at the distance of seven furlongs. Easily winning the Federico Tesio Stakes in September, Happy Saver set his sights on the Jockey Club Gold Cup at this 10 furlong trip and put away Mystic Guide in the final yards to earn a 109 figure. Rested nearly eight months, Happy Saver returned to beat a non-descript field of allowance foes as expected at the end of May with a 99 figure. Considering how well he ran in his second career start last July, we can expect Happy Saver to improve markedly off his 2021 debut and that is why the second match between him and Mystic Guide can be expected to be one to behold.

Informative was disregarded at 30 to 1 two races back when finishing second in an allowance race and earning a career-best 103 figure, then one month later ran even better. In the Salvator Mile Stakes at Monmouth on June 12, Informative rallied from last of 10 to win by a length when completely dismissed by bettors at 79 to 1 odds. The 110 figure appears legitimate and as it is as good as the 108 figure Mystic Guide earned winning the Razorback Stakes and the 109 figure Happy Saver earned winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and considering it could be improved upon as Informative is a 4-year-old like the other two contenders, this upstart can't be dismissed as a contender in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Max Player (99), Moretti (106) and Prioritize (107).

Win Contenders:
Mystic Guide
Happy Saver
Informative

Suburban Stakes – Grade 2
Race 10 at Belmont Park
Saturday, July 3 – Post Time 5:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $400,000

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Undefeated Happy Saver, Dubai World Cup Winner Mystic Guide Top Saturday’s Suburban

Wertheimer and Frere homebred Happy Saver puts his undefeated record on the line in Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Suburban, a 10-furlong test for 4-year-olds and up at Belmont Park.

The 135th renewal of the Suburban, which is a “Win and You're In” qualifier to the Grade 1, $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic in November at Del Mar, will be televised live on NBC as part of a show airing from 5 p.m. to 6 p.m. Eastern.

The Suburban will feature the one-two finishers of October's Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup won by Happy Saver by three-quarters of a length over Godolphin homebred Mystic Guide, who enters from a win in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup at Meydan.

A rail-riding Happy Saver, with Irad Ortiz, Jr. up, tracked Tacitus from third position with Mystic Guide to his outside in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, contested over a fast Belmont main track.

Mystic Guide moved outside of the pacesetter late in the turn as Happy Saver waited for racing room behind rivals that finally emerged when Tacitus came off the rail on the turn for home. Mystic Guide put a nose in front inside the final eighth, but Happy Saver squeezed up the rail to secure the win.

Trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, Happy Saver won four starts in his sophomore season, including the Federico Tesio in September at Laurel Park. The Super Saver chestnut launched his 4-year-old campaign on May 28 with a one-length score in an optional-claiming mile on Big Sandy.

Pletcher said Happy Saver, who worked a half-mile in 49.26 seconds Sunday on the Belmont dirt training track, has returned bigger and better as a 4-year-old.

“I think as an older horse he's a little more laid back in some of his works. He always performs well and he's really filled out and matured,” said Pletcher, who won the 2017 Suburban with Keen Ice.

Pletcher said the stretch out in distance will suit Happy Saver.

“For the way he ran in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year, he's proven he likes that distance and that race looks even stronger now with what Mystic Guide has done,” said Pletcher.

Pletcher will also saddle Repole Stable and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners' Moretti.

A 5-year-old son of Medaglia d'Oro, out of the Grade 1-winning Concerto mare Rigoletta, Moretti is a half-brother to 2017 Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile-winner Battle of Midway.

The consistent bay, who sports a record of 12-4-4-2 with purse earnings of $304,150, launched his current campaign with an even third in the Grade 2 Brooklyn presented by Northwell Health on Belmont Stakes Day.

Last June, Moretti captured the 11-furlong Flat Out over a sloppy Belmont main track by 5 1/4-lengths ahead of a distant second to Tacitus in last year's Suburban. He completed 2020 with a 1 1/2-length win in the 1 3/4-mile Birdstone in August at Saratoga, a title Pletcher said Moretti will have a chance to retain on August 5.

“The further the better for him,” said Pletcher. “He ran OK in here last year and this would be a nice bridge to the Birdstone to try and defend his title there.”

Ortiz, Jr. retains the mount on Happy Saver from post 6, while Flavien Prat picks up the mount on Moretti from the inside post.

Mystic Guide, trained by Mike Stidham, will be making his first appearance since capturing the Dubai World Cup on March 27 at Meydan.

The Ghostzapper chestnut, out of the multiple Grade 1-winning A.P. Indy mare Music Note, made the grade in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy in September at Saratoga ahead of his runner-up effort to Suburban rival Happy Saver in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to close out his sophomore season.

Mystic Guide, who has paired with Belmont Stakes-winning rider Luis Saez for his two starts this season, opened his current campaign in impressive fashion with a six-length win in the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap on a sloppy track on February 27 at Oaklawn Park, garnering a career-best 108 Beyer Speed Figure.

“Obviously, we don't really know how much the sloppy track played into that number,” said Stidham. “He came back in the Dubai World Cup and made the number look like it was real, which was good. We've given him plenty of time and he's had three months since that race to bounce back. Looking at him train and his weight and his coat, he's an absolute picture right now.”

Stidham said Mystic Guide will need to improve to turn the tables on Happy Saver.

“He needs to be faster. The bottom line is that they're both very good horses,” said Stidham. “I'm not taking anything for granted. I know Happy Saver has never been beaten and it won't be an easy race for us. I just hope we have the best horse.”

Stidham said Saez, who will pilot Mystic Guide from post 4, could be a difference maker on Saturday.

“Luis has ridden him in both races this year and he has a tremendous amount of confidence in the horse and that will play a big part,” said Stidham. “I couldn't ask to have a more talented rider on him. We have things set up for as good an effort as he's ready for.”

Informative, trained by Uriah St. Lewis for his family's Trin-Brook Stables, enters from a last-to-first score in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile at odds of 79-1 on June 12 at Monmouth Park.

The 4-year-old Bodemeister chestnut has racked up 25 career starts with three wins and three seconds, and picked up his first graded black type last out when besting Ny Traffic by one-length, garnering a career-best 99 Beyer.
Manny Franco has the call from post 2.

William L. Clifton, Jr.'s multiple graded stakes placed Prioritize, a 6-year-old Tizway gelding, finished a closing fifth last out in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special on May 14 at Pimlico Race Course.

Prioritize made his first nine starts on turf, including a third in the 2018 Grade 2 Hill Prince at Belmont, before trainer Jimmy Bond switched the bay to dirt for his last seven efforts.

The versatile Prioritize ran third in the Grade 1 Woodward Handicap in September at Saratoga ahead of a fourth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to close out his campaign.

Joel Rosario retains the mount from post 3.

George E. Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbreds' Max Player, trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, is in search of his first win since capturing the Grade 3 Withers on February 1, 2020 at Aqueduct Racetrack.

The 4-year-old Honor Code colt ran third in both the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and Grade 1 Runhappy Travers following his Withers win for former conditioner Linda Rice.

Transferred to Asmussen for a fall campaign, Max Player finished fifth in both the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby and Grade 1 Preakness in a Triple Crown campaign schedule which was readjusted due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Max Player opened his season with an off-the-board effort in the Group 1 Saudi Cup at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in February and ran sixth last out in the Pimlico Special.

Ricardo Santana, Jr. has the call from post 5.

The Suburban is carded as the closing race on Saturday's 10-race program. First post is 1 p.m. Eastern.

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Three Godolphin Runners Top First Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings Of 2021

Godolphin's 4-year-old Maxfield, dominant winner of the Saturday's Stephen Foster Stakes (G2), leads fellow Godolphin stars Mystic Guide and Essential Quality in the first week of tabulated votes for the 2021 Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings. The Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings are a weekly rating of the top 10 horses in contention for the $6 million Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), which will be run at Del Mar racetrack in Del Mar, California, on Nov. 6.

Maxfield, a 4-year-old son of 2006 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Street Sense, topped all Classic contenders with 13 first-place votes and 269 total votes. Trained by Brendan Walsh, Maxfield earned a “Win and You're In” berth into the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic with a runaway 3 ¼-length triumph in the 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs. The victory was Maxfield's third this year, which also includes wins in the Mineshaft Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds and the Alysheba Stakes (G2) at Churchill. His only defeat in eight starts was a third-place finish in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) in March.

Mystic Guide, trained by Mike Stidham, is in second place with 17 first-place votes and 261 total votes. A 4-year-old son of 2004 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Ghostzapper, Mystic Guide is two for two this year, winning the Razorback Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn Park and the Dubai World Cup (G1) at Meydan. Mystic Guide is slated to start in this Saturday's Suburban Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park, a “Win and You're In,” for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic. The Suburban will be broadcast live on NBC (5 p.m. ET) as a part of the “Breeders' Cup Challenge Series: Win and You're In presented by America's Best Racing.”

The Brad Cox-trained 3-year-old Essential Quality, winner of the Belmont Stakes (G1), is in third place with 245 votes. A son of Tapit, Essential Quality, last year's TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1) winner, and champion 2-year-old male, has won three of four starts this year.

Boat Racing, Gainesway Stable, Roadrunner Racing and William Straus's 3-year-old Hot Rod Charlie, a hard-fought second to Essential Quality in the Belmont, is in fourth place with 160 votes. Trained by Doug O'Neill, Hot Rod Charlie, a son of Oxbow, won the Louisiana Derby (G2) in March, and finished third in the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Winchell Thoroughbreds and Willis Horton Racing's 4-year-old Silver State, unbeaten in four starts this year, is in fifth place with 118 votes. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Silver State won the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and Belmont's Metropolitan Handicap (G1), a “Win and You're In” for the $1 million Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1). Asmussen saddled Curlin and Gun Runner to Breeders' Cup Classic victories.

The undefeated Happy Saver, owned by Wertheimer and Frere, is in sixth place with 106 votes. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Happy Saver, a 4-year-old son of Super Saver, won an allowance optional claiming race at Belmont Park on May 28 in his lone start this year. Winner of last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), Happy Saver is also expected to start in Saturday's Suburban Stakes.

WinStar Farm's 4-year-old Country Grammer, also expected to start in the Suburban, is in seventh place with 100 votes. In his two starts at Santa Anita Park this year, Country Grammer, a son of Tonalist, was second in the Californian Stakes (G2) and then won the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1). Country Grammer is now trained by Pletcher.

Mandaloun, second in the Kentucky Derby, is in eighth place with 78 votes. Owned by Juddmonte and trained by Brad Cox, Mandaloun, a 3-year-old son of Into Mischief, won the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds and the listed Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park in his most recent start on June 13.

St. George Stable's 5-year-old mare Letruska is in ninth place with 71 votes. Trained by Fausto Gutierrez, Letruska has won four of five starts this year, including Saturday's powerful 5 ¾-length victory in the Fleur de Lis Stakes (G2) at Churchill.

Rounding out the top 10 is Fox Hill Farms and Siena Farm's 5-year-old gelding Royal Ship (BRZ). Trained by Richard Mandella, Royal Ship (60 votes), a son of 2008 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman, won the Californian and finished second in the Hollywood Gold Cup.

The Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings are determined by a panel of leading Thoroughbred racing media, horseplayers and members of the Breeders' Cup Racing Directors/Secretaries Panel. Rankings will be announced each week through Oct. 11. A list of voting members can be found here.

In the Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings, each voter rates horses on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 system in descending order.

Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings – June 29, 2021*

Rank Horse Total Votes First-Place Votes
1 Maxfield 269 13
2 Mystic Guide 261 17
3 Essential Quality 245 1
4 Hot Rod Charlie 160 0
5 Silver State 118 0
6 Happy Saver 106 0
7 Country Grammer 100 1
8 Mandaloun 78 0
9 Letruska 71 0
10 Royal Ship (BRZ) 60 0

 *Note – The Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings have no bearing on qualification or selection into the Breeders' Cup Classic.

The 2021 Longines Breeders' Cup Classic, which will be run at 1 ¼ miles on the main track, is limited to 14 starters. The race will be broadcast live on NBC.

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