Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase Grade 2 Stats
Key Trends (2021–2025)
Irish Dominance: 5 of the 5 winners were trained in Ireland.
The Mullins Factor: Willie Mullins has won 3 of the 5 renewals (Colreevy, Elimay, and Dinoblue).
Official Rating: 4 of the 5 winners were rated 150 or higher.
Age Profile: All 5 winners were aged 7 or 8. Note: Last year’s winner, Dinoblue, attempts to become the first 9-year-old winner.
Market Position: All 5 winners returned at 3/1 or shorter.
Recent Form: 5 of the 5 winners won their final start before the Festival.
Runner Analysis & Preference List
1. Dinoblue (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Mark Walsh)
Trends Fit: 9/10. The defending champion and highest-rated mare in the field (159). She fits every trend except age, as she is now 9. However, her form this season—winning at Naas and Navan—suggests she remains at the peak of her powers.
Verdict: The clear standard-bearer. She thrives on “Good” ground and has the tactical speed to navigate this 2m 4f trip. Statistically, she is the most likely winner.
2. Spindleberry (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)
Trends Fit: 8/10. An 8-year-old rated 153. She won a Grade 1 against males at Fairyhouse last season and outclassed rivals at Doncaster in December. She failed to settle in the Irish Gold Cup, but the drop back to 2m 4f and returning to mares-only company is a perfect trend match.
Verdict: The primary danger to her stablemate. She represents the “improving younger mare” profile that has won 4 of the 5 renewals.
3. Panic Attack (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton)
Trends Fit: 7/10. A rare British hope who is “unbeaten” for this yard over fences (4 from 4), including the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Although she is 10 years old (breaking the age trend) and rated 147 (borderline), her course form is exceptional.
Verdict: The best each-way alternative to the Irish. She receives 3lb from the top two, which statistically gives her a fighting chance of hitting the frame.
4. Diva Luna (Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones)
Trends Fit: 6/10. A 7-year-old rated 143. She has transitioned to chasing flawlessly, winning two Listed events. While she is slightly below the typical winning rating of 150+, she meets the “lightly-raced improver” profile.
Verdict: A progressive type who could be better than her current mark, though she needs to find nearly 15lb of improvement to trouble Dinoblue.
5. July Flower (Trainer: Henry de Bromhead | Jockey: Darragh O’Keeffe)
Trends Fit: 6/10. A 7-year-old Irish mare with a rating of 143. She won a Grade 2 chase over 2m but has found the step up to Grade 1 against the males difficult. She meets the trainer and age trends.
Verdict: Respected given the yard, but her lack of a win over 2m 4f+ is a negative trend compared to the stayers above her.
6. Only By Night (Trainer: Gavin Cromwell | Jockey: Keith Donoghue)
Trends Fit: 5/10. An 8-year-old rated 148. She was a brilliant second in the Arkle last year but hasn’t fully fired in her two starts this season. She also comes here off the back of a 5th place, failing the “last time out winner” trend.
Verdict: Talented but looks to have lost some of the momentum required to win a race of this depth.
7. Telepathique (Trainer: Lucy Wadham | Jockey: Tom Cannon)
Trends Fit: 3/10. An 8-year-old rated 147. While consistent, she was soundly beaten by Spindleberry earlier this season. British-trained mares are 0-for-5 in this race so far.
Verdict: Likely to be outclassed by the Grade 1-calibre Irish mares.
Order of Preference
1. Dinoblue (The class leader; defending champion with perfect prep)
2. Spindleberry (High-rated stablemate with Grade 1 winning form)
3. Panic Attack (Best British hope; excellent course form)
4. Diva Luna (Young improver with a high ceiling)
5. July Flower
6. Only By Night
7. Telepathique
