Taking Stock: Mr. Prospector is the Most Influential

A few weeks ago, I was a guest on the weekly Going In Circles podcast, which is hosted by Chuck Simon, the former trainer who's also a top-notch writer at his blog, and Barry “The Sniper” Spears, an excellent handicapper and well-known figure on Twitter. Simon asked for my opinion on which stallion I'd consider to be the most influential of the past 50 years. You can listen to a nine-minute clip of the conversation here. My answer? Claiborne's iconic Mr. Prospector, of course.

The clip generated quite a bit of interest and debate on social media. Simon kept Northern Dancer out of the equation, and I made my selection on North American-based stallions whose careers had begun within the 50-year window. Mr. Prospector, a son of Raise a Native from Gold Digger, by Nashua, was born in 1970–the same year as Secretariat and Forego–and entered stud in 1975 in Florida. This timeframe eliminated not only Northern Dancer but also Raise a Native, another icon.

Mr. Prospector's stud career and substantial influence has been thoroughly documented through the years from the time he went to stud until his death in 1999 at the age of 29. All told, he sired 1,195 foals and 182 black-type winners, a ratio of 15% from foals– not starters. These days top stallions are lucky to hit 10%.

Fifty-odd years since his birth, Mr. Prospector's influence is still palpable. Five of the top 10 sires on the general sire list of 2022– Quality Road, Curlin, Gun Runner, Speightstown, and Munnings–trace in tail-male descent to him, as do four of the top 10 broodmare sires–Street Cry (Ire), Smart Strike, Distorted Humor, and Unbridled's Song.

In 2015, John Sparkman wrote a piece in Daily Racing Form titled “Mr. Prospector line has no American equal” that said in part, “…Mr. Prospector now stands at the head of the most successful classic sire line in the United States. His fifth-generation male-line descendant American Pharoah, who broke a 37-year Triple Crown drought with his Belmont Stakes victory on June 6, is the 32nd American classic winner descending in male line from Mr. Prospector dating back to when his son Conquistador Cielo won the Belmont in 1982.”

According to Sparkman, the Northern Dancer line was second to Mr. Prospector in this timeframe, with 17 Classic winners.

Since then, the Mr. Prospector line is responsible for an additional seven Classic winners in the U.S., the most recent of which was last year's Gl Preakness winner Early Voting (Gun Runner). The Northern Dancer line also has had another seven.

If the Classics are the gauge, Mr. Prospector's impact on them certainly makes him the most influential stallion of the last 50 years.

Florida to Claiborne

Mr. Prospector, who was bred by Leslie Combs ll, topped the 1971 Keeneland July sale at $220,000. He was purchased by A.I. “Butch” Savin's AISCO Stable and trained by Jimmy Croll, but he wasn't a Classic horse himself; he was sprinter, and a brilliantly fast one when he was sound. On the same day that Savin's Regal and Royal won the Gl Florida Derby, defeating Forego by three lengths, Mr. Prospector set the track record for six furlongs at Gulfstream in 1:07 4/5, winning by nine lengths in his third start.

Mr. Prospector, who was unraced at two, would go on to win seven of 14 starts, including the Gravesend and Whirlaway while contemporaries Secretariat won the Triple Crown and Forego three Horse of the Year titles.

Mr. Prospector attained his legendary status in the breeding shed, and improbably at that. Savin retired him to stud inexpensively at his AISCO Stable in Florida, far away from the best broodmares in Kentucky, but Mr. Prospector simply had what it took to overcome lesser mares. From his first crop, he got 1978 Eclipse champion 2-year-old filly It's in the Air, among others. Fappiano, a Grade l winner and top racehorse who became an influential stallion himself, was a member of Mr. Prospector's second crop. Another future successful stallion, Grade l-placed Crafty Prospector, was from Mr. Prospector's fourth crop.

Peter Brant | Sid Fernando

Peter Brant, who picked up an Eclipse award for Regal Glory (Animal Kingdom) as top turf filly or mare last week, was among the first owner-breeders to notice Mr. Prospector's prepotency and was instrumental in acquiring Mr. Prospector and moving him to Kentucky for the 1981 breeding season. I spoke last week to Brant, whose White Birch Farm is in Connecticut, of how he was able to move the stallion from AISCO to Claiborne.

“Butch Savin was in the concrete mix business in Connecticut. When he had Mr. Prospector, he lived in Connecticut and also in Boca Raton in Florida. I started to notice this horse was getting some nice horses from some cheap mares, as I was looking up stallion stats to see who to breed to, and this horse was looking very, very good, so I made it my business to meet Butch Savin. I would go down to Boca Raton, because at the time I was playing polo in Wellington. I kind of lived in Florida three months of the year while I was playing polo. So, I would go down to Boca–he had a condominium overlooking the ocean–and I would pick him up; he had a favorite Chinese restaurant and we would go there and sit and talk of the future plans of Mr. Prospector.

“I'd called Seth Hancock up and told him this horse was the real deal, and Seth was interested but the horse was in Florida and the horse was good with cheap mares but would he do well on the Kentucky circuit against those other stallions, especially the ones Seth was carrying at the time,” Brant said.

“Anyway, I'm talking to Butch and I tell him why don't we move the horse to Kentucky, and he says, 'Well, I'm not going to move. I have a farm in Florida.' And I said, 'Why don't you stay in on the horse, and we'll move him to Kentucky?' So, I'm talking to Seth and Butch Savin–it was really like arbitraging Seth and Butch Savin–and it wasn't the easiest job in the world. Finally, Butch agreed to move the horse to Kentucky and said he would stay in on the horse. I was going to keep like a third of the horse, and Seth was going to syndicate the rest of him. You know, Seth did a great job syndicating him–he had the best owners in there. And then Savin says, 'I don't want to stay in on the horse. I'm not, realistically, going to send any mares up to Kentucky.' So, he didn't stay in. And we paid real money for the horse. It was probably between $175,000 to $200,000 per share, and there were 40 shares.

“I ended up keeping a third, and as the prices went up I'd spin off some shares. You know, at one point he was standing for $300,000 no guarantee. He was a very valuable horse, and what made him a great investment for everybody involved was that the shares went to over a million dollars. And what made him even more valuable was he was one of the few stallions who was breeding to more mares back then, and so you basically got an extra season every other year. Back then, horses were breeding 40 to 48 mares, and he was breeding 64, 65 mares, up to 70. And so it was a very good deal, and he also lived a very long life and was fertile for a long time.”

And he sired some of the best colts and fillies of his era, and they in turn became sires and dams of other high-quality stock, and the cycle kept continuing.

And it keeps continuing, which is why Mr. Prospector is the most influential sire of the last 50 years in North America.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Solera Farm to Hold Jan. Open House

Solera Farm in Williston, Florida will hold an open house on Sunday, Jan. 22 from Noon to 3 p.m. (EST). Veteran sire Greatness (Mr. Prospector) and the Into Mischief son Rogueish (Into Mischief) will both stand for a stud fee of $2,500 for a live foal. All mares pregnant to Rogueish offered during OBS January will sell with a complimentary, no guarantee 2023 season to Rogueish, which may be used on any mare of their choice. The only son of Into Mischief standing in Florida, this sire has 11 yearlings catalogued at the upcoming OBS sale. For more information contact Dr. Krista Seltzer at (352) 949-1194 or via email, solerafarm@gmail.com.

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Mr Prospector Line Boosted Among Europe’s Busiest Stallions

Covering numbers are more an indication of fashion than of success but, this being, as we so often hear, “a numbers game”, it is worth having a closer look at the Flat stallions in Britain and Ireland who have been gifted books into three figures this year. We will also be looking in more depth at the French covering numbers in the coming days.

According to the statistics recently published by Weatherbys in the annual Return of Mares, there were 62 stallions who covered 100 or more mares in 2022, and that is not taking into account sires such as Crystal Ocean (GB), who covered 338 mares and can legitimately be considered a Flat sire (as can so many in his bracket) but is advertised on the Coolmore National Hunt roster.

As the accompanying table (below) shows, no Flat sires breached the 300-mark, but the four busiest, all standing in Ireland, reached around 250. In Britain, last year's leading first-season sire in that country, Ardad (Ire), was the only horse to pass 200. He covered 205 mares at Overbury Stud, having been sent only 26 mares in 2020. His first set of juveniles were swift enough out of the blocks for him to have a surge of late bookings in 2021, when his book numbered 146.

But how do these numbers break down into sire-lines within sire-lines? It is of course hard to get away from Northern Dancer, whose sons have been so dominant that they now possess their own strong branches within that division. Among these sires tabled, and there are of course other representatives with smaller books, only 10 of the 62 do not have Northern Dancer as a male-line ancestor.

The Mr Prospector line, always far more celebrated in America, has been given a massive boost in this part of the world largely thanks to his great grandson Dubawi (Ire), who will be champion sire in Britain and Ireland for the first time in 2022 and features on this list along with six of his sons – Time Test (GB), Night Of Thunder (Ire), New Bay (GB), Ghaiyyath (Ire), Too Darn Hot (GB), and Space Blues (Ire). It was Mr Prospector's son Seeking The Gold who was responsible for Dubawi's sire Dubai Millennium (GB), while another two sons of Mr P, Machiavellian and Gone West, lead us, eventually, to two names near the very top of this list, newcomer Starman (GB) – a crack sprinter who interestingly has Montjeu (Ire) as his damsire – and Wootton Bassett (GB), who stand at Tally-Ho Stud and Coolmore, respectively.

The only outlier among the group of 62 is Saxon Warrior (Jpn), who, along with Study Of Man (Ire), was one of only two sons of Deep Impact (Jpn) standing in Britain and Ireland. That number has now increased by one with the news that Tosen Stardom (Jpn) is to shuttle from Australia to stand at Ireland's Lemongrove Stud. Saxon Warrior was himself recently represented by a first-crop Grade I winner at the Breeders' Cup in Victoria Road (Ire), and Deep Impact's son Auguste Rodin (Ire) had his trainer Aidan O'Brien and the media ablaze following his victory in the G1 Vertem Futurity. The Sunday Silence line, so dominant in Japan, may yet take root in Europe.

To cover Northern Dancer's influence, in this group at least, we must break it down into five of his sons: Danzig, Sadler's Wells, Try My Best, Storm Bird, and Nureyev.

Of those, the name packing the biggest punch is Danzig, chiefly through his dominant sons Green Desert and Danehill. Sixteen of these busy sires listed here stem from Green Desert and 11 from Danehill.

Notably, from each of those two spring the veteran half-brothers Invincible Spirit (Ire), who has six sons and a grandson on this list, and Kodiac (GB), who has four sons. Arguably, their extraordinary Classic-winning dam Rafha (GB) must take much of the credit for this pair, along with a dynasty which includes new Sumbe recruit Mishriff (GB), but their longevity is also remarkable, with Invincible Spirit listed as having covered 106 mares at the age of 25 this year, while the 21-year-old Kodiac covered 63.

Think Danzig and your mind generally wanders towards speed, but he is also responsible for the Derby winners Sea The Stars (Ire) and Golden Horn (GB), the two best sons of his late grandson Cape Cross (Ire), who is of course also the sire of the recently deceased brilliant dual Oaks winner Ouija Board (GB). That fact in turn makes Cape Cross the damsire of another Derby winner, Australia (GB). All three of those had covering numbers in excess of 150, though Golden Horn had a strong National Hunt contingent in his 2022 book and he has since moved from Dalham Hall Stud to Overbury Stud, where that trend will continue.

Almost half of the stallions on this list – 28 in total – stem from Danzig, and that is surely owing to the speed and precocity more generally associated with this line, which is so much in demand from breeders these days. These include newcomers Palace Pier (GB), A'Ali (Ire), Soldier's Call (GB), Mohaather (GB), Alkumait (GB) and Nando Parrado (GB).

Conversely, the Sadler's Wells/Galileo (Ire) axis is more usually associated with middle-distance performers, though we do have a notable exception in this area at the moment in Europe's leading first-season sire, the G1 Flying Five S. winner Havana Grey (GB), who is the sire of 42 winners and five stakes winners this year and is a great grandson of Galileo. In total, seven of the 10 representatives of the Sadler's Wells line tabled here descend via Galileo, with the other three including Kitten's Joy's son Kameko.

The expanding influence of the Storm Bird/Storm Cat line in this part of the world, chiefly through the latter's sons Giant's Causeway and Hennessy, is highlighted by the fact that nine make this list, with Lope De Vega (Ire), Lucky Vega (Ire), Lope Y Fernandez (Ire), Pinatubo (Ire) and Blue Point (Ire) all representing Giant's Causeway through Shamardal. (Earthlight {Ire} is just bubbling under with a book of 92). No Nay Never, by Hennessy's son Scat Daddy, is becoming increasingly widely represented, but Scat Daddy's Sioux Nation was narrowly the busiest of all this year. No Nay Never will have six sons at stud in Europe in 2023, including Ten Sovereigns. Sergei Prokofiev, the only Scat Daddy stallion in Britain, has been well supported and stands alongside Havana Grey at Whitsbury Manor Stud.

Nureyev's line is hanging in there through Pivotal (GB), whose son Farhh (GB) has compromised fertility, which is a shame as he looks as though he could have made far greater inroads in the stallion tables if he had been able to cover the numbers required to compete these days. His son Far Above (GB) covered a three-figure book in his first year, while of course Pivotal's greatest sire son, Siyouni (Fr), is arguably the most popular stallion in France. Because of his location, his full book is not listed in the Return of Mares for Britain and Ireland, but he is reported by the Aga Khan Studs to have covered 132 mares this year, while his two Coolmore-based sons Sottsass (Fr) and St Mark's Basilica (Fr) covered 126 and 176, respectively.

Finally, Try My Best's branch, via the perhaps unlikely source of the former Coolmore then Shadai resident Waajib (Ire) and his son Royal Applause (GB), has started to flourish through Acclamation (GB). Though the latter, now 23, was just shy of 100 mares himself this year, his sons Mehmas (Ire) and Dark Angel (Ire) covered 249 and 193 mares, while Mehmas's son Supremacy (Ire) was also high on the list with 187.

As the record-breaking first-season sire of 2020, and having backed that up last year by leading the second-crop sires' list, Mehmas's popularity continues to be in the ascendant and not just via his male offspring. In the last few weeks, his daughter Malavath (Ire) topped the Arqana Breeding Stock Sale at €3.2 million, while another, the Grade I winner Going Global (Ire), sold for $2.5 million at the Fasig-Tipton November Sale in Kentucky.

With Supremacy one year ahead of them, three more young sons of Mehmas join the ranks for 2023: G1 Haydock Sprint Cup winner Minzaal (Ire) is on Shadwell's Derrinstown roster, with Persian Force (Ire) retiring to stand alongside his sire at Tally-Ho Stud, and Caturra (Ire) becoming the first to stand in England, at Overbury Stud.

As we have seen in the recent past with such notable examples as Kendargent (Fr) and Wootton Bassett, starting out with small books of mares does not preclude success, and in fact it can be a breeder's worst nightmare to have one of many of a stallion's offspring if the fickle market suddenly turns its back. But as a guide to who's hot and who's not in the eyes of the commercial sector, the figures in the Return of Mares are always fascinating to peruse. And for those breeders simply with an eye on the racecourse with no sale-ring concerns in between, there are still plenty of options when it comes to well-bred and well-performed stallions which require simply the courage of your own convictions. Blood will out.

 

British and Irish Flat stallions with three-figure books in 2022

Name  No. Mares   (Sire)

Sioux Nation 255 (Scat Daddy)

Starman (GB) 254 (Dutch Art (GB))

Mehmas (Ire) 249 (Acclamation (GB))

Wootton Bassett (GB) 249 (Iffraaj (GB))

Ardad (Ire) 205 (Kodiac (GB))

Starspangledbanner (Aus) 202 (Choisir (Aus))

Saxon Warrior (Jpn) 199 (Deep Impact (Jpn))

Kodi Bear (Ire) 194 (Kodiac (GB))

Dark Angel (Ire) 193 (Acclamation (GB))

New Bay (GB) 193 (Dubawi (Ire))

Frankel (GB) 188 (Galileo (Ire))

Supremacy (Ire) 187 (Mehmas (Ire))

Time Test (GB) 181 (Dubawi (Ire))

Night Of Thunder (Ire) (180 Dubawi (Ire))

No Nay Never 178 (Scat Daddy)

St Mark's Basilica (Fr) 176 (Siyouni (Fr))

Cotai Glory (GB) 176 (Exceed And Excel (Aus))

Ten Sovereigns (Ire) 173 (No Nay Never)

Australia (GB 173 (Galileo (Ire))

Lope De Vega (Ire) 168 (Shamardal)

Havana Grey (GB) 166 (Havana Gold (Ire))

Dubawi (Ire) 165 (Dubai Millennium (GB))

Too Darn Hot (GB) 164 (Dubawi (Ire))

Galileo Gold (GB) 163 (Paco Boy (Ire))

Sea The Stars (Ire) 161 (Cape Cross (Ire))

Ghaiyyath (Ire) 161 (Dubawi (Ire))

Space Blues (Ire) 160 (Dubawi (Ire))

Camelot (GB) 159 (Montjeu (Ire))

Pinatubo (Ire) 159 (Shamardal)

Coulsty (Ire) 158 (Kodiac (GB))

Gleneagles (Ire) 155 (Galileo (Ire))

Palace Pier (GB) 154 (Kingman (GB))

Elzaam (Aus) 153 (Redoute's Choice (Aus))

Golden Horn (GB) 152 (Cape Cross (Ire))

Lucky Vega (Ire) 152 (Lope De Vega (Ire))

Sea The Moon (Ger) 152 (Sea The Stars (Ire))

Kingman (GB) 150 (Invincible Spirit (Ire))

Showcasing (GB) 150 (Oasis Dream (GB))

Sergei Prokofiev 150 (Scat Daddy)

U S Navy Flag 144 (War Front)

Ulysses (Ire) 143 (Galileo (Ire))

Blue Point (Ire) 142 (Shamardal)

Inns Of Court (Ire) 141 (Invincible Spirit (Ire))

Invincible Army (Ire) 138 (Invincible Spirit (Ire))

Dandy Man (Ire) 137 (Mozart (Ire))

Lope Y Fernandez (Ire) 134 (Lope De Vega (Ire))

Nathaniel (Ire) 133 (Galileo (Ire))

Nando Parrado (GB) 130 (Kodiac (GB))

Sottsass (Fr) 126 (Siyouni (Fr))

Oasis Dream (GB) 125 (Green Desert)

Magna Grecia (Ire) 120 (Invincible Spirit (Ire))

Profitable (Ire) 118 (Invincible Spirit (Ire))

Far Above (GB) 117 (Farhh (GB))

Bated Breath (GB) 115 (Dansili (GB))

Bungle Inthejungle (GB) 115 (Exceed And Excel (Aus))

Waldgeist (GB) 115 (Galileo (Ire))

A'Ali (Ire) 114 (Society Rock (Ire))

Soldier's Call (GB) 112 (Showcasing (GB))

Churchill (Ire) 108 (Galileo (Ire))

Mohaather (GB) 108 (Showcasing (GB))

Invincible Spirit (Ire) 106 (Green Desert)

Alkumait 105 (Showcasing (GB))

Kameko 102 (Kitten's Joy)

 

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Cape Canaveral Passes Away at 26

GSW Cape Canaveral (Mr. Prospector–Seaside Attraction, by Seattle Slew) passed away at age 26 at Highfield Stock Farm in Canada, where he stood for 14 years. He had been battling severe cellulitis and was humanely euthanized. He was pensioned last fall.

Cape Canaveral has been one of the leading sires in Canada since 2008 with 20 crops of racing age, 541 foals, 429 starters, 21 black-type winners, 315 winners of 1,080 races and earnings of over $17.8 million.

Out of GI Kentucky Oaks winner Seaside Attraction, Cape Canaveral raced for owner/breeder Overbrook Farm and D. Wayne Lukas, winning three of four races, including the GIII San Miguel S. He earned $128,640.

“Cape has left his impression on all those fortunate enough to have been tasked with his care,” said Highfield President Adrian Munro. “His longevity in the breeding shed is a testament to Cal Britton, Amber Jacobson, Jennifer Buck and Kelly Robinson who have impeccably cared for him through his tenure at Highfield. He was the foundation sire for our breeding program and he will be greatly missed.”

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