Nick Tammaro Produces His First Breeders’ Cup Morning Line

By J. N. Campbell

As the Breeders' Cup Festival looms, Nick Tammaro is delving deep into the past performances. It's not to participate in the BC Betting Challenge. He's too principled. There is a more ardent task at hand-making the morning line.

Last month, Tammaro got the call from Keeneland about taking over the October Meet's duties, previously held by longtime oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. “It was a true honor to even be considered,” he said. “I have been doing this at Sam Houston Race Park and the chance to make the line at such a unique place as Keeneland is special.” The Breeders' Cup offer followed.

A Houston native who grew up in Dallas, Tammaro has a diverse resume. He's forged a career in the industry these past number of years that includes becoming a public handicapper to serving as the announcer at his home track. Raised by a horseplaying father who loved the sport, when asked by his son what families do on Saturdays, Tammaro recalls his father telling him, “I don't know, let's not find out.” Nick's father passed away earlier this year, but to hear him tell it, “I am sure Dad is up there bending someone's ear about how I am making the line for the Breeders' Cup.”

While it may be a distinct honor, crafting a morning line is a rather thankless pursuit. Tammaro makes an apt comparison. “You're a grocery store produce manager in that you only hear from customers when the tomatoes and lettuce are putrid.” This is one of those pressure-packed jobs at a racetrack with an interesting history.

In another age, the great turf writer Whitney Tower penned a piece for Sports Illustrated on March 2, 1959 entitled, “Hanging on the Morning Line,” in which he interviewed “Mr. Price Maker.” Tower told readers, “A friend…works at his own regular job six days a week, rarely gets to the races more than 15 times a year, and yet for the last 10 years has been among the top men in this difficult and exacting profession.” Enjoying his anonymity, Mr. Price Maker summed up his profession by adding, “My job is essentially one of evaluation rather than of observation.”

Nowadays, we know exactly who the culprit is that makes the odds. Tammaro and his colleagues regularly face strict scrutiny when something is off. Not all of it makes sense. “I always crack up when I put a horse at 8-1, and it goes off at 4, because that sends people into a furor on Twitter,” he said. “But when he is 3-1 and ends up 6-5, there is silence.” Like a weatherman forecasting a flash flood, predicting the odds in an age where computer-assisted wagering can sink a runner's payouts in seconds, there are numerous complexities when it comes to constructing the line.
Producing odds is all about observing myriad factors, with the goal of predicting what the public thinks the prices will be when a race goes off as opposed to who the linemaker thinks will win.
Tammaro is guided primarily by math. Every odds number represents a percentage of the betting pool, and using a spreadsheet, he balances the field until it adds up to a magic number of 120. When it comes to percentages, if he makes a horse 2-1, then he is saying that 33.33% of the public is betting on that horse to win. He calculates this with a formula: 2/1=2; that 2+1=3; 100/3=33.33). The more evenly the field is matched, the tougher it is to differentiate the odds of one horse with that of another.

Taking a cue from his handicapping, this oddsmaker has developed a two-fold system to sweep through the form once a field is drawn. This can be tricky because tracks release who is entered sometimes a week in advance of the race. “What I try to do is take a break after an initial run through,” Tammaro explained. “I think that all goes into the math and improvisation behind constructing an accurate morning line.” Watching replays, workouts, and looking at everything, from speed figures to the trainer and jockey statistics during a meet, are essential. “I couldn't make a line if I wasn't directly following a track,” he said. “I think it would be too difficult.” Everyone might not agree, but like an umpire calling balls and strikes, it's the human element that persists with this job.

In particular, the Breeders' Cup is a highly-specialized event when it comes to the odds because not only do you have some of the best pointing to the post, but there are international runners that are shipping in from around the world. Tammaro said he would feel the pressure, but admitted much of it is self-imposed, “No one will scrutinize what I do more than me.” For instance, when it comes to the Breeders' Cup GI Juvenile, GI Distaff, and GI Classic, he is faced with different puzzles in each race.

The Juvenile started out with a shortlist of competitors, but over the past few weeks, that has grown. He thinks that it could end up with 10 or 12 entered, but Bob Baffert's undefeated Southern California champion, Cave Rock (Arrogate) will be the morning-line favorite. “I don't see him being higher than 4-5 at this point,” Tammaro said. “I think the connections, plus his latest speed figure, make him better than Forte (Violence), who is a clear second choice.”

In for the Distaff, the Todd Pletcher matchup has him thinking that Nest (Curlin) will be a slight favorite at 8-5 over her older stablemate, Malathaat (Curlin) at 5-2. “This groundswell for Nest that the public is backing is remarkable, but I don't think her races after Belmont were against top competition. Malathaat should be the favorite, but that's not my job.” He said the toughest call was what to do with Steve Asmussen's Clairiere. At 4-1, his third choice is a real mystery, especially after a poor showing in the G1 Personal Ensign S. at Saratoga in August.

When it comes to the Classic, Tammaro is clear on this marquee event. John Sadler's Flightline (Tapit) is the deserving favorite. Rarely do oddsmakers in horse racing assign 1-9, and he is shying away from doing so. Tammaro is more in the 3-5 range, which still takes a significant piece of the pie. “I can't go that low because it takes away too much from the others, so 62.5% makes more sense.” The closest competitors, Epicenter (Not This Time), Life Is Good (Into Mischief), and Taiba (Gun Runner), will come in at 5-1 (16.66%), 6-1 (14.29%), and 8-1 (11.11%), respectively. He believes that Rich Strike (Keen Ice), beaten by Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) last time in the GII Lukas Classic, will end up at 20-1 (4.76%). Tammaro elaborated, “Hot Rod is probably going to be 15-1 (6.25%), based on the Lukas, and I think will be under the radar, what with the likes of Epicenter taking significant action.”

Still, he said he was not overly concerned about this slate. Rather, it's the races like the Juvenile Turf Sprint or Juvenile Turf, with their large and diverse fields, that can be more of a challenge. “Charlie Appleby runners are going to play a major factor, just like Aidan O'Brien's entries did in the past, but I will have my hands full with some of those races that could go in any direction,” Tammaro said.

The modern version of “Mr. Price Maker,” who also works full-time at a Houston staffing agency, won't shy away from a trip to Keeneland next week. After all, any racetrack is what he describes as his “happy place,” as he remembers those trips with his father. With that in mind, Nick Tammaro will produce the morning line odds for the Breeders' Cup to the best of his ability. Then customers can eye the tomatoes and lettuce.

HOW TAMMARO'S CLASSIC ADDS UP
Horse                             ML             % of pool
Flightline                       3/5              62.5%
Epicenter                       5/1             16%
Life Is Good                   6/1             14%
Taiba                              8/1             11%
Hot Rod Charlie            15/1             6%
Rich Strike                    20/1             5%

Happy Saver                 30/1             3%

Total                                                117.5%

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Global Tote To Produce Morning Line For Kentucky Downs Meet

Who better to make a morning line than the company that processes the bets?

The program odds at Kentucky Downs' elite meet in early September will be the Global Tote Morning Line, produced by BetMakers Technology Group (“BetMakers”). Global Tote, a BetMakers Company, also serves as Kentucky Downs' tote services provider, supplying the terminals, systems and services that allow patrons to wager while visiting Kentucky Downs.

The morning line provides early odds as a reference point for horseplayers. While they don't impact wagering, they reflect the line-maker's opinion of the odds that each horse will go off in actual betting. Horseplayers and casual fans alike use the morning line for insights that include if a horse provides value by being well above the program odds, if a horse who figures among the favorites is not being bet in live action or if a horse that hasn't shown much is getting pounded in wagering.

“Betting odds are Global Tote's and BetMakers' business,” said Ted Nicholson, Kentucky Downs' Vice President for Racing. “I can't think of a better entity to be making our morning line, which is such a fundamental part of handicapping horses.”

Australia-based BetMakers Technology Group provides critical solutions in technology, data and development to the global racing and wagering industry, spanning both fixed odds and pari-mutuel markets with a presence in more than 40 countries and 35 U.S. states.

BetMakers' Global Tote, founded with the June 2021 acquisition of Sportech Racing, is the global leader in tote, creating solutions that propel the racing industry forward.

“We at BetMakers and Global Tote are very excited to support our partner, Kentucky Downs,” said Dallas Baker, Head of International Operations for BetMakers. “Bettors rely on Global Tote technologies to deliver an engaging betting experience whether visiting Kentucky Downs' beautiful September meet or betting off-track on what has been one of the most phenomenal successes in racing anywhere in the last decade. We wish everyone betting on Kentucky Downs an entertaining and winning time and hopefully we can provide some helpful insight for handicapping strategies with the Global Tote morning line from BetMakers.”

Kentucky Downs' 6 1/2-furlong stakes for 2-year-olds on Sept. 9 has been renamed the $500,000 Global Tote Juvenile Sprint.

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Nevin Sends Our Last Buck, My Boy Tate In John Morrissey

Trainer Michelle Nevin will send out stakes-winning veterans Our Last Buck and My Boy Tate in Thursday's $100,000 John Morrissey, a 6 1/2-furlong sprint for New York-breds 3-years-old and up, at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

My Boy Tate, bred, trained, and co-owned by Nevin with Little Red Feather Racing boasts a ledger of 24-9-5-2 with purse earnings of $584,988. The Boys At Tosconova gelding is a five-time stakes winner at Aqueduct Racetrack in Ozone Park, N.Y., including scores in the Hollie Hughes and Haynesfield earlier this year.

The hard-knocking 7-year-old has also enjoyed success at Saratoga, posting a perfect in-the-money record of 4-1-2-1, including a third-place finish in last year's Morrissey.

Last seen finishing fourth in an open allowance sprint at Parx in May, My Boy Tate has reeled off six weekly works dating to June 13, including a five-eighths effort in 1:01.54 on July 20 on the Saratoga main track.

“He's doing good. He had a little bit of a freshening and he's right on track,” Nevin said. “I would say Aqueduct is his favorite track, but Saratoga is a track he's shown an affinity for, too.”

Nevin said that My Boy Tate, who has finished no worse than fourth in his last nine starts dating back to running third in last year's Morrissey, continues to thrive.

“He seems like he's still the same old fella,” Nevin said. “He's definitely a barn favorite. He always tries. We've had him since he was two and he's seven now and is just a great horse to have.”

J and N Stables' Our Last Buck, a 7-year-old Courageous Cat gelding bred by Gerardus S. Jameson, enjoyed a productive 2020 campaign with a record of 8-4-2-0. The success continued into January with a first stakes score in the seven-furlong Say Florida Sandy last out at the Big A.

Our Last Buck has breezed weekly at Belmont dating back to June 3, including a five-eighths effort in 1:02.23 on the dirt training track on July 20.

Nevin said the lengthy freshening was by design.

“He had plenty of races last year and we were looking to give him a little break,” Nevin said. “After his big win, we decided to give him some time and he's been back on the track getting ready and we finally feel like we're ready to go.

“He got very good last year and was running very consistently,” Nevin continued. “He was showing up every time. He's definitely improved as he's gotten older.”

Manny Franco will guide My Boy Tate from post 3, while Our Last Buck will emerge from post 4 under Luis Saez.

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Charles Hallas' Morning Breez sports a ledger of 42-5-12-11 with purse earnings of $569,929, but has yet to secure an elusive first stakes win.

The 6-year-old Morning Line gelding, bred by Hart Farm and Rhapsody Farm, has flourished in his last three starts sprinting six furlongs in open allowance company, including a last-out half-length score on May 13 at Belmont that garnered an 87 Beyer.

Transferred to the care of trainer Pat Reynolds, Morning Breez will be piloted by returning rider Jose Lezcano from post 6.

Team Hanley's multiple stakes-winner Captain Bombastic, bred by Chester and Mary Broman, won a pair of stakes last season, including the seven-furlong Mike Lee at Belmont and the 6 1/2-furlong NYSSS Times Square in August at Saratoga for former conditioner Jeremiah Englehart.

Transferred to Chad Brown to launch his 4-year-old campaign, the Forty Tales chestnut finished off-the-board in a pair of state-bred stakes at Belmont and will now race for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen from post 2 under Ricardo Santana, Jr.

Rounding out a competitive field are Wow Brown [post 1, Michael Davila, Jr.], Wudda U Think Now [post 5, Irad Ortiz, Jr.], Foolish Ghost [post 7, Joel Rosario], Jemography [post 8, Dylan Davis] and Runningwscissors [post 9, Tyler Gaffalione].

The John Morrissey is slated as Race 9 on Thursday's 10-race card. First post is 1:05 p.m. Eastern. Saratoga Live will present daily television coverage of the 40-day summer meet on FOX Sports. For the complete Saratoga Live broadcast schedule, and additional programming information, visit https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/tv-schedule.

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The California Series: John Shirreffs, Part Two

Great expectations don't necessarily begin with lofty intent.

Most new licensees start out hungry for that one lionheart of any stripe to announce their arrival. Those trainers who are routinely sent the big weekend warriors learn to acquire a more refined palate, to remodulate their ambitions accordingly.

But scant few are fortunate enough to have harnessed the sort of thunderbolt that doesn't just electrify a trainer's career but leaves a patch of scorched earth for posterity. And really, how many ever expect to?

In part one, we deconstructed some of the scaffolding of the Shirreffs training philosophy-today, we take a peek beneath these outer-workings.

And where better to start than with a horse who, for three years between November of 2007 and October of 2010, danced her way to a 19-race win-streak that encompassed 14 Grade Is before signing off with a narrow defeat in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs, the collective groan to which still resonates today.

“She was difficult,” said John Shirreffs of Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}), as though narrating her movie trailer. “She was very difficult.”

For one, the shell was ill-designed for the engine, with back-end problems and creaky joints a source of constant headaches. “We had to be really careful with her,” Shirreffs continued. “I don't know how she did it. She overcame so much.”

Nor did it help that she was wired with an electric current, evident from the moment she pranced off the horsebox and into the Shirreffs barn at Hollywood Park that looked out onto the old training track.

“She was very highly strung and very nervous on the track. At the start, I don't know how many times I saw her drop the rider and come running back to the barn,” he said. “So yeah, she was difficult.”

By the time the 2008 GI Vanity H. at Hollywood Park rolled around, personality quirk was devolving into vice–she washed out in the preliminaries, all jittery nerves and sweat, before dispensing with her rivals in unusually grueling fashion.

“Almost cost us the race,” admitted Shirreffs, about her pre-race antics. “That's when we realized we needed to do something on the racetrack to conserve her energies.”

Shirreffs pressed reset, stood her by the quarter pole every day. Why there? “From the quarter pole, it was only an eighth of a mile walk to the gate,” he said. Stretched and supple from her parade-ring yoga, Zenyatta needed no warm-up.

“And while all the other horses were warming up, we'd stand her just to conserve her energy.”

Her next race–the GII Clement L. Hirsch H. at Del Mar–was won in customarily graceful fashion, setting a Polytrack record in the process.

“I'll have to go back to the basics.”

Superstition runs like the Nile Delta through any backstretch, with good fortune sought from many an idol, false or not-voodoo amulets nailed to the wall, lucky socks, the empty stall nearest the office reserved for the trainer's next oracle.

Shirreffs, however, appears less than dogmatic about one of the staple deities of the track-old father time, whose avatar is the trusty stopwatch. “I don't even clock my horses any more,” he said.

“What makes everybody excited? Speed. You're watching your horse work and, 'wow, we went in :23. My goodness, he's going that fast.' But the stopwatch is like a treat, right? It can give you a lot of satisfaction-but that's all it is, a treat. I think that will never change.”

Nor is he beholden to the rigid sanctity of the morning set-list. Just take Life is Sweet (Storm Cat), the 2009 GI Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner, a veritable sleeping beauty who Shirreffs sent out for morning exercise only when she deemed the hour ripe to rise, yawn and stretch.

And once again, patience is the key virtue when it comes to returning sheen to tarnished reputation. Or as Shirreffs puts it: “Is that not the joy of training, having fun with different personalities, doing something that'll help them bridge that gap?”

No finer example of that can be found than in Morning Line (Tiznow), a Grade I winner on the East Coast whose career had jack-knifed. Two starts after claiming pole position the GI Carter H. at Aqueduct, he brought up the rear in the GI Whitney H. at Saratoga. Jim Stark in need of a cause.

Indeed, when Morning Line arrived in California, “He would just go to the outside fence and he wouldn't move,” Shirreffs explained, about the son of Tiznow's black mood of a morning. “I didn't know what to do. So, I thought to myself, 'well, I guess I'll have to go back to the basics.'”

Back to basics isn't a euphemism for a few weeks of jogging or tack-walking around the shedrow. No, this was the equivalent of sending Einstein back to grade school.

“We would put the driving reins on him and drive him around the racetrack,” said Shirreffs, of the foundation stone of the rebel's rehabilitation.

When Morning Line became accustomed to the driving reins, then a rider was put on. When he acclimatized to both driver and rider, they increased the pace–a performance that necessitated a relay race, where the more athletic members of the Shirreffs Olympic team would be situated around the track, ready to be handed the driving reins from their rubber-legged counterparts.

“Pretty soon, it got to the point where we just started him with the driving reins, and then the rider would let go of them and carry on like usual,” said Shirreffs.

On his first start post Betty Ford, Morning Line won the GII Mervyn LeRoy H. at Hollywood Park, and two starts later, finished third in the GI Triple Bend H.

A more timely war of perseverance concerned the recently-retired Hard Not to Love (Hard Spun).

A one-eyed bag of nerves. “She obviously needed to see what was going on, so when she got nervous and upset, she just she'd have to spin around and spin around.” Shirreffs experimented with a mirror in her stall, an optical illusion for the optically challenged. “It made all the world of difference.”

Still, Hard Not to Love had a greater phobia to overcome if she were ever to make her mark. “She was terrified of the gates. Absolutely terrified,” he said.

In a nod to Hansel and Gretel, Shirreffs built a starting gate from straw. “But she'd just run through it, and then she wouldn't want to go back.” Then came an eureka moment–the same straw replica of the starting gate, but positioned around the entrance to her stall.

“So, when she went through it, tried to run, she could only go to the back wall-it made all the difference.” Indeed, the daughter of Hard Spun ended up winning the GI La Brea S. at Santa Anita, cementing herself a star of the West Coast distaff division.

“Let them drink as much as they want the first time”

Not all idiosyncrasies are created equal, however, and as anyone who sweats the details can attest, even a small realignment of the daily routine can suddenly unlock the vault. But in Express Train (Union Rags), Shirreffs is rewarded the long game.

Indeed, the improving son of Union Rags recently ran a career high when finishing second in the GI Santa Anita H., a race that once was a high-tide mark on the calendar, but in its sublimation by other dueling interests has become a barometer to the shifting fashions of the West.

It's instructive to hear Shirreffs's commentary of these changing fads, some of it dusted with nostalgia, like a hankering for the journey-man days of the old California circuit. Or a time when the backstretch community dispensed horse-sense like penny toffies.

“I was new to the track, and one day I remember Don Porter, a great trainer up North, he saw me walking into the receiving barn to give a horse a drink.

“He said, 'John, just remember the first drink a horse takes will be its biggest drink in there. So, let them drink as much as they want the first time, because otherwise they're not going to rehydrate themselves well enough.' I mean, back then people helped each other.”

Has that changed?

“I don't see a lot of that going on now,” Shirreffs replied.

Some have a historical bent, observations that betray hokey bygone truths–like the way he and others once used arsenic to stimulate the appetite and on bandages to cool the legs. “I used to use a lot of lead to help cool the legs, as well.”

Some of it reflects shifting industry winds. “I think the jockeys are fitter now than they were before. As soon as the gate opens, it's like, 'go, go, go,' right? There's more pressure on jockeys to perform all the time and in every race.”

Fitter jockey, tougher race. “Back when I started, people didn't expect the horse to win first time out-they expected the horse to have a couple of races and eventually race himself into shape. The demands on the horse are, I think, a lot higher now than they were, so we've had to adjust.”

Telling are those trainers he holds in high regard. “I think Neil Drysdale's a really good trainer,” said Shirreffs. “I think he's one of those people that understands horses and doesn't overtrain, tries to get along with them. The trouble is, he's English!

“I think Bobby Frankel was another great trainer. His approach, I thought, was always interesting. Another one who wouldn't over face them.”

Is there a connecting thread between these names? “All these trainers, I think, they just love their horses.”

If there's another, then surely it pertains to the little things. Which brings us full circle to Giacamo (Holy Bull), the horse that gave the Shirreffs name its international flavor.

The day before the 2005 GI Kentucky Derby was a lazy and warm spring Kentucky morning. Shirreffs was in the paddock schooling his great white hope, Giacomo, when the son of Holy Bull twisted off a shoe.

“We had to get him back to the barn to get re-shod, but Giacomo had very shallow feet–he really didn't have strong feet–and as you know at Churchill Downs, it's very gravely.”

Shirreffs dispatched the exercise rider to the barn, who returned with a bandage that they used to swaddle the foot, carefully led him back to the barn. The next day, Giacomo won the Derby at 50-1.

It can be all too easy to dismiss anecdotes like this as insignificant–just one of a million incidental decisions made along the winner's path. “Just doing those little things, you know, they don't seem like they're really important,” admitted Shirreffs.

But we need look no further than Sir Arthur Conan Doyle–he of Sherlock Holmes fame, with the microscope eye-for redress: It has long been an axiom of mine that the little things are infinitely the most important.

“I mean,” Shirreffs added, in explanation, “were it not for what we did, he probably wouldn't have won the Derby, right?”

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