Leopardstown The December Hurdle (Grade 1) 14.32 UK Time
Lossiemouth arrives in peak form after a dominant victory at Punchestown in November on soft to heavy, quickening away by nineteen lengths.
She acts well on good to yielding based on earlier successes and brings top-class experience from multiple Grade 1 wins.
Her fitness is optimal from that recent outing, and while lacking specific Leopardstown form, her strong-travelling style suits the track’s configuration.
The handicap rating underscores her superiority in this field.
Brighterdaysahead finished a respectable third at Punchestown in May on yielding ground, beaten nine lengths in Grade 1 company.
She boasts an impressive record prior to that, including unbeaten hurdle starts earlier in the season.
The long absence since May raises fitness concerns against sharper opponents, but she handles good to yielding well.
She has strong course form at Leopardstown with previous victories, enhancing her claims if ready.
Anzadam ran a solid second at Newcastle in November on good to soft, beaten just a length and a half in Grade 1 company.
He showed progressive form with two prior wins, relishing testing conditions.
Fitness from that recent effort is a plus, and he should adapt to good to yielding.
No prior Leopardstown experience, but his stamina and jumping ability fit the bill.
Irancy finished fourth at Punchestown in November on soft to heavy, well behind Lossiemouth in Grade 1.
He previously won back-to-back races, including Grade 1 at Punchestown in April on yielding.
The recent run should have brought him forward in fitness, and he handles good to yielding effectively.
Limited Leopardstown form, but his class suggests he can compete if improving.
Casheldale Lad fell at Fairyhouse in November on yielding to soft in Grade 1, when travelling well.
He had won his two previous starts convincingly, showing good attitude on similar ground.
Fitness remains after the tumble, and he prefers good to yielding conditions.
No Leopardstown runs, but his front-running tactics could suit if he settles.
Hello Neighbour finished tenth on the flat at Roscommon in July on yielding, in listed company.
His hurdle form includes a third earlier, but recent efforts suggest he needs to step up.
As a juvenile Grade 1 winner at Leopardstown on soft, the course is a positive, and he acts on good to yielding.
Fitness from flat run, but experience against elders is limited.
Winter Fog finished sixth at Ascot in November on good to soft in Grade 1, beaten thirty lengths.
He has shown ability in handicaps but struggles at this level recently.
Fitness is there, and he handles good to yielding, as per prior runs.
As an older horse, experience helps, but younger rivals hold the edge.
No notable Leopardstown form.
Futurum Regem finished last at Dundalk in November on the flat in a handicap.
His hurdle form is modest, with no wins and recent poor showings.
Fitness exists, but class is lacking for this Grade 1.
No strong ground preference, and outmatched here without major improvement.
Simulation Results:
Order of finishes based on win counts: Lossiemouth, Anzadam, Brighterdaysahead, Irancy, Casheldale Lad, Hello Neighbour, Winter Fog, Futurum Regem.
Percentage chances for each horse: Lossiemouth 42.12%, Anzadam 15.84%, Brighterdaysahead 13.56%, Irancy 9.32%, Casheldale Lad 8.14%, Hello Neighbour 5.68%, Winter Fog 3.92%, Futurum Regem 1.42%.
Equivalent fractional odds: Lossiemouth 11/8, Anzadam 5/1, Brighterdaysahead 6/1, Irancy 10/1, Casheldale Lad 11/1, Hello Neighbour 16/1, Winter Fog 24/1, Futurum Regem 69/1.
The best bet is Lossiemouth.
The two value selections are Anzadam (live 15/2 versus calculated 5/1) and Irancy (live 25/1 versus calculated 10/1).
Steamer bets. Brighterdaysahead
Trends based on last 12 years:
Lossiemouth matches a high number of key trends.
She is aged six, fitting the profile of nine of the last twelve winners being seven or younger.
She won her last run in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown within forty-five days, aligning with eight winners who won last time out, eleven who ran recently, and the strong Morgiana statistic where nine of twelve came from there with eight winning it.
She has two previous runs at Leopardstown, satisfying the ten of twelve with at least one course run, though no wins there against the seven of twelve who had a course victory.
Her distance form shows six runs over fifteen to seventeen furlongs with two wins, falling short of the ten of twelve with at least seven runs and three wins.
In hurdle form, she has six runs and three wins, below the ten of twelve with eight runs and four wins.
Her rating of one hundred and fifty-nine exceeds the one hundred and fifty-six threshold for nine of twelve.
She has three previous Grade One wins, well above the ten of twelve with at least one.
Season form includes three runs with two wins, fitting perfectly.
Anzadam aligns well with several trends.
He is aged five, under seven.
He finished second on his last run at Newcastle within forty-five days, not a win but recent.
His last run was not the Morgiana.
No previous Leopardstown form, missing the course run for ten of twelve.
Distance form has one run with no wins over the trip, well below requirements.
Hurdle form shows five runs with four wins, short on runs but meeting wins.
Rating of one hundred and fifty-seven is above one hundred and fifty-six.
No Grade One wins, against the ten of twelve profile.
Season form has two runs with one win.
Irancy fits a solid portion of the trends.
He is aged seven, on the cusp but qualifying.
He finished fourth last time in the Morgiana at Punchestown within forty-five days, not a win but from the key trial where one of the nine didn’t win or place.
No Leopardstown form.
Distance form with six runs and two wins falls short.
Hurdle form of six runs and three wins is below thresholds.
Rating of one hundred and fifty-six meets the mark.
No Grade One wins.
Season form has two runs with one win.
Brighterdaysahead matches many but misses on recency.
She is aged six, under seven.
She finished third last time at Punchestown but over two hundred days ago, not within forty-five days and not a win.
Not from Morgiana.
Two previous Leopardstown runs with one win, fitting course trends well.
Distance form six runs with three wins, short on runs but meets wins.
Hurdle form six runs and three wins, below.
Rating one hundred and fifty-nine above threshold.
One Grade One win.
Season three runs but no wins.
Hello Neighbour meets some profiles but lacks recency and rating.
He is aged six.
Finished tenth on the flat last time in July, not a win and outside forty-five days.
Not Morgiana.
Four Leopardstown runs with two wins, strong on course.
Distance four runs with two wins, short.
Hurdle four runs and two wins, below.
Rating one hundred and forty-eight below one hundred and fifty-six.
One Grade One win.
Season one run, no win.
Casheldale Lad aligns with fewer trends.
He is aged five.
Fell last time at Fairyhouse within forty-five days, not a win.
Not Morgiana.
No Leopardstown form.
Distance four runs with two wins, short.
Hurdle five runs and three wins, below.
Rating one hundred and forty-eight below.
No Grade One wins.
Season four runs with two wins.
Winter Fog fits sparingly due to age and rating.
He is aged eleven, older than seven against nine of twelve.
Finished sixth last time at Ascot within forty-five days, not a win.
Not Morgiana.
Two Leopardstown runs with no wins.
Distance six runs with one win, short.
Hurdle eleven runs but only one win, meets runs but not wins.
Rating one hundred and forty-four below.
No Grade One wins.
Season four runs, no wins.
Futurum Regem matches the least.
He is aged nine, over seven.
Finished eleventh last time at Dundalk within forty-five days, not a win.
Not Morgiana.
No Leopardstown form.
Distance details limited but likely short.
Hurdle seven runs and one win, below.
Rating ninety-eight well below.
No Grade One wins.
Season five runs, no wins.
In order of preference based on matching the trends: Lossiemouth, Anzadam, Irancy, Brighterdaysahead, Hello Neighbour, Casheldale Lad, Winter Fog, Futurum Regem.
