Taking Stock: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly of 2022

Sergio Leone's 1966 masterpiece, “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly,” was the last and best of a trilogy of Leone spaghetti westerns that upended the traditional genre.

Before Leone and other Italian directors like Sergio Corbucci set about redefining the Old West in Europe, traditional domestic westerns featured clean-cut leads like John Wayne, Alan Ladd, Gregory Peck, Gary Cooper, and Jimmy Stewart in films by directors like John Ford and Howard Hawks that clearly delineated the good from the bad and ugly. Not so Leone, who made the genre surreal and messy, and for him the good wasn't as easily distinguishable from the bad and ugly.

Clint Eastwood, Leone's star, was an anti-hero gunslinger with five-day stubble on a perpetually squinting face, a cigarillo between his lips, and a signature poncho draped over his tall frame.

When he flipped the poncho over his left shoulder, he was ready to draw the Colt Navy holstered on his thigh, and when he did, any gunfight was over in the blink of an eye. He was faster than fast–and unbelievably so.

Racing in 2022 was messy and surreal and was a Sergio Leone film in my mind, not a John Ford movie with clear-cut heroes and bad guys. Flightline was the star, playing the Eastwood role. No one was faster.

Here's the year's Good, Bad, and Ugly, boiled down in three acts.

The Good
The Good was Flightline (Tapit), wasn't it? He was good, but not so in the traditional sense for some, because he didn't race often like their racing heroes from the past. His detractors have grumbled, too, that he's not competing in 2023 because his connections are cashing out on his massive stud value. Some conspiracy theorists on social media have gone so far as to insinuate the $4.6 million share purchased by an undisclosed buyer at auction at Keeneland was engineered by the colt's ownership group to inflate his value. In reality, the share was bought fair and square by Travis Boersma, the billionaire co-founder of Dutch Bros. Coffee, with Coolmore the underbidder. In fact, Boersma has since purchased another share in Flightline.

As for how good Flightline was, the results of the recent Gl Malibu and Gll San Antonio add to the tale: Taiba (Gun Runner), beaten 8 3/4 lengths in third by Flightline in the Gl Breeders' Cup Classic, won the former by 4 1/4 lengths; and Country Grammer (Tonalist), second by 19 1/4 lengths to Flightline in the Gl Pacific Classic, won the latter by 4 1/2 lengths. At the time, the Pacific Classic impacted me in a way I haven't felt in a long time, and when Lane's End asked me to write the entry for Flightline for its annual stallion brochure, I wrote of that race in particular and said, in part:

He was a hot Santa Ana wind blowing in from the San Diego mountains that day. He not only fried the competition in the Pacific Classic but also the ability to think straight in the immediate aftermath. It was difficult to coherently put into words what was seen and felt as Flightline crossed the line. There was something unsettling about it, something that asked, “Is this real?”

Joan Didion, that great American writer from California, once said this about the Santa Ana winds: “The Pacific turned ominously glossy during a Santa Ana period, and one woke in the night troubled not only by the peacocks screaming in the olive trees but by the eerie absence of surf. The heat was surreal. The sky had a yellow cast, the kind of light sometimes called 'earthquake weather.'”

Didion's words capture the otherworldly essence and collective disbelief of what was witnessed at Del Mar. It had been, after all, only Flightline's fifth race. Previously, he'd dominated a field of Grade l winners by six lengths in the one-mile Gl Metropolitan H. at Belmont. His only other stakes outing before the Met Mile came in the seven-furlong Gl Malibu S. at Santa Anita, which he won by 11 1/2 lengths.

In the days following the Pacific Classic, as the magnitude of accomplishment settled in, journalists waxed lyrically about Flightline's performance, but the most telling verdicts came from unsentimental makers of figures and ratings: 126 from Beyer, the fastest in almost 20 years and the second-best ever; -8 1/2 from Thoro-Graph, the best in its history; -2 from Ragozin,
an indicator of highly elite class; and a ranking of 143 from the internationally respected Timeform, which places Flightline tops among American horses of all time and within range of the publication's highest-ever weighted horse, Frankel, at 147.

Flightline was clearly special.

The Bad
The handling of HISA was bad–twice over. There's no way to sugarcoat this. The bill was first passed without industry consensus when Sen. Mitch McConnell, Republican and then Majority Leader in the senate, tacked it on to the year-end spending bill in 2020, and after a part of it was found unconstitutional last year, Sen. McConnell, now Minority Leader, once again attached an amendment to it to the spending bill last month with corrective language that's supposed to address the issue the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals found objectionable, which is that government power was delegated to a private entity without adequate government supervision.

Sen. McConnell, in this role, plays the part actor Lee Van Cleef did in the Leone film, the hired gun Angel Eyes. Part of the entry for Angel Eyes in Wikipedia reads: “A ruthless… mercenary… always finishes a job for which he is paid.” Who hired–lobbied is the polite word–Sen. McConnell? Pro HISA advocates, including The Jockey Club, a mostly Republican organization. And why is this ironic and even surreal? Because many of the constitutional issues being litigated in courts around HISA are anti-Republican stances about states' rights and regulatory measures. And many of the federal justices ruling on these issues were named to the bench by Republican Presidents, whose appointments were supported by Sen. McConnell and most Republicans.

What happens if another conservative judge rules against HISA in one of several suits on the table at the moment? You already know: Sen. McConnell will be back to tack another amendment to the spending bill a year from now. He's got plenty of Democrats in the senate who will support him on this, but his own party is highly critical of him for putting forth measures that are anathema to conservatives.

Sen. McConnell and his posse should have had this right from the beginning, with industry consensus and a clear understanding that any challenges to HISA would come from McConnell's own party and be adjudicated by justices put in place by them.

The Ugly
Who will be the champion 3-year-old colt of 2022? Will it be Epicenter (Not This Time), who won one Grade l race last year, or will it be Taiba, the winner of three? I tweeted this recently from the WTC company account, @Sirewatch:

“In the matchup for Eclipse 3yo between Epicenter vs. Taiba, the winner is Ron Winchell. He owns Epicenter and is a major shareholder in Gun Runner, the sire of Taiba.”

Winchell is a leading man from a John Ford film, a John Wayne type of winner.

Taiba is owned by Amr Zedan, a Saudi businessman, and trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, both of whom are Sergio Leone characters, perhaps a composite in this case of the Eli Wallach role of Tuco, a wanted Mexican bandit in “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.”

Things certainly got ugly for Zedan and Baffert after their Medina Spirit (Protonico) tested positive for betamethasone after the 2021 Gl Kentucky Derby, and events have snowballed from there, including the Churchill Downs ban of Baffert and the subsequent lawsuits filed by Zedan and Baffert in response. All of this translated to negative publicity and quite likely cost Medina Spirit an Eclipse Award.

The champion 3-year-old colt of 2021 was Godolphin's Essential Quality, who won two Grade l races, the same as Medina Spirit. Except Medina Spirit also defeated older horses by winning the Gl Awesome Again – something his rival didn't do – and finished ahead of Essential Quality the two times they met, in the Derby (Essential Quality was fourth) and the Breeders' Cup
Classic (Medina Spirit was second to Knicks Go and Essential Quality was third).

The resilient Zedan and Baffert are somehow back again with Taiba, but how will voters respond this time? Will they snub Zedan and Baffert again and go with Epicenter, who had a fine campaign that included a win in the prestigious Gl Travers? Or will they jettison both dirt colts and go for Godolphin's Modern Games (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}), who won two Grade l races on turf against older horses? Don't scoff, there's been some chatter about that on social media among potential voters.

Owner and handicapper (and economics professor) Marshall Gramm recently noted on Twitter the similarities of Taiba, Epicenter, and Modern Games to the trio of Snow Chief (three Grade l wins), Ferdinand (one), and Manila (three, all on turf) from 1986. Snow Chief won the Eclipse that year, but Manila, an outstanding turf horse, was the best of the three. Back then, however,
turf racing didn't have the same stature it now seems to hold with some voters.

These days it's hard to agree on anything. Consensus is elusive. The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly are seemingly interchangeable, depending on viewpoint. And facts seem to matter less than opinion. That's the chaos that Leone captured in 1966, and it's very much alive now.

Welcome to 2023.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Penny Breakage Increased Profits for Breeders’ Cup Players

Courtesy Thoroughbred Idea Foundation

Horseplayers at the 2022 Breeders' Cup enjoyed more than $545,000 in additional winnings from just the win, place and show pools thanks to the revised Kentucky law that pays pari-mutuel winnings down the penny.

“The two days of racing at Keeneland were sensational, but it was made that extra bit better thanks to penny breakage increasing payouts to players,” said Patrick Cummings, Executive Director of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF).

In no race was the impact greater than the Breeders' Cup Classic won by Flightline.

Under the previous provision, and across nearly every American jurisdiction now other than Kentucky, Flightline would have paid $2.80, $2.80 and $2.20 for each $2 stake in the win, place and show pools, respectively. Instead, winning bettors received $2.88, $2.92 and $2.30 from those pools.

“The penny breakage law meant that a $2 bet across the board on Flightline returned a profit 16% larger than it would have under dime breakage,” Cummings said.

Altogether, the win, place and show pools from the Classic returned $240,000 more than with traditional rounding to the dime.

“The wins from Modern Games ($4.76) and Malathaat ($7.76) carried an extra boost too, accounting for an additional $131,000 from the win breakage alone going back to horseplayers.

“Hopefully winning players churned some of that into Rebel's Romance and Flightline.”

Overall, through just 64 days of Thoroughbred racing in Kentucky since the revised law went into effect, total breakage returned to horseplayers from the win, place and show pools is now more than $2.13 million.

Factoring in exotic pools as well as Standardbred racing in Kentucky, the total returned is higher.

“Pricing matters and racing wagering's overall takeout rates, already too high, are inflated by rounding down to the dime. Kentucky took a bold first step and other states and horsemen's groups should follow their lead and support such initiatives.

“Clinging to this antiquated practice is bad business and keeps racing wagering less competitive. We hope racing adopts sustainable practices to build its customer base and 'grow the pie' for all stakeholders.”

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‘Modern’ Love In the Mile

If you decided to swallow the skinny-ish 6-5 about Godolphin's Modern Games (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) in Saturday's GI Breeders' Cup Mile, Sponsored by the Permanently Disabled Jockeys' Fund (PDJF) at Keeneland Saturday, hey–you actually got paid this time around.

The striking chestnut, who exuded confidence and class throughout the week–as reported by TDN's Steve Sherack and Christie DeBernardis on site–steamed down the center of the Keeneland turf course once produced in upper stretch by William Buick and raced away for a second consecutive victory at the Breeders' Cup.

Modern Games looked a bit toey in the stalls and indeed, hopped at the break, but was able to establish a position in midpack as Smooth Like Strait (Midnight Lute) took pace pressure in the form of European raider Pogo (Ire) (Zebedee {GB}), who held his spot at the rail, forcing Smooth Like Strait to make the running from the two path. The speed was strong enough–:23 flat for the opening quarter and :46.81 past midway–and that would have been much to the liking of Buick, who began to feel for Modern Games at the five-sixteenths pole, with 2020 Mile hero Order of Australia (GB) (Australia {GB}) lapped to his outside. The duo crept into a striking position as they neared the stretch, was swung out wide when push came to shove and showed a more decisive finishing kick than the Ballydoyle runner, hitting another gear entering the final furlong before motoring home to score cozily. 'TDN Rising Star' Shirl's Speight (Speightstown) ran on gamely and outfinished Kinross (GB) (Kingman {GB}), who worked out a nice trip from a double-digit draw beneath Frankie Dettori, to be third.

Modern Games was famously erroneously scratched after breaking through the inside stall before last year's GI Juvenile Turf, then was unscratched, but ultimately ran for purse money only. He duly won the race with a minimum of fuss. Modern Games, 6-5 on the tote as the gates sprung Saturday, returned $4.76–or nearly 7-5–under the new penny breakage rules in the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

Domestic Spending (GB) (Kingman {GB}) was pulled up and out of the race at the half-mile pole by Flavien Prat. A statement from Breeders' Cup said the 5-year-old was off in his left hind, was attended to by veterinarians and transported back to the barn by equine ambulance. There was no indication of lower-limb fracture, the statement said, and he was being stabilized for transfer to Rood & Riddle for further evaluation. Later in the afternoon trainer Chad Brown tweeted that Domestic Spending had suffered 'a serious pelvic fracture' and that he would provide updates when available.

“He has so many attributes to himself–his size, he's neat, he's nimble,” said trainer Charlie Appleby, celebrating an eighth Breeders' Cup success and fifth in the last two years. “That's why I think he's always thrived on these tracks here. Wherever he is, he's small enough to get through the gaps and he's neat enough to get around those turns.”

With Coroebus (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) and Native Trail (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}) the team for the 'Boys in Blue' for the G1 English 2000 Guineas–they ultimately ran 1-2–Modern Games made the French equivalent a few weeks later his seasonal debut and validated 2-1 favoritism. Third in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club over a stamina-stretching 2100 meters, he was a slightly disappointing fifth in the G1 Prix Jean Prat going seven furlongs ahead of a brave second to Baaeed (GB) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) in the G1 Sussex S. at Goodwood July 27. A slashing, 5 1/4-length winner over Ivar (Brz) (Agnes Gold {Jpn}) in the GI Ricoh Woodbine Mile Sept. 17, the chestnut was back at home for his latest in the G1 Queen Elizabeth S. over rain-affected Ascot turf on QIPCO British Champions S. Oct. 15.

“He finished second [to Bayside Boy {Ire}, by New Bay {GB}] and from start to finish hated the ground, [that's ]the horse he is. A true warrior,” said Appleby.

Modern Games will be programmed for races like the G1 Lockinge S. and G1 Queen Anne S. early next season, with a return to California for a defense of his title very much on the cards, Appleby said.

Pedigree Notes:

The all-conquering Dubawi was earning a fifth Breeders' Cup race winner (Rebel's Romance would go on to make it a half-dozen in the Turf), including champion Yibir (GB) and Mile winner Space Blues (Ire) in addition to Modern Games last year.

As if his female family needed further burnishing, Modern Games's year-younger half-sister Mawj (Ire) (Exceed and Excel {Aus}) was second in the G3 Albany S. at Royal Ascot this past June before going one better in the G2 Duchess of Cambridge S. during Newmarket's July meeting. Mawj was most recently third to Lezoo (GB) (Zoustar {Aus})–whom she beat in the Duke of Cambridge–and Friday's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf romper Meditate (Ire) (No Nay Never) in the G1 Cheveley Park S. at headquarters Sept. 24.

The last reported foal out of Modern Ideals is a yearling filly by Mastercraftsman (Ire). Modern Games's female family also includes the outstanding Bosra Sham (Woodman) and her full-brother Hector Protector.

Saturday, Keeneland
FANDUEL BREEDERS' CUP MILE PRESENTED BY PDJF-GI, $1,840,000, Keeneland, 11-5, 3yo/up, 1mT, 1:33.96, fm.
1–MODERN GAMES (IRE), 123, c, 3, by Dubawi (Ire)
           1st Dam: Modern Ideals (GB), by New Approach (Ire)
           2nd Dam: Epitome (Ire), by Nashwan
           3rd Dam: Proskona, by Mr. Prospector
O-Godolphin, LLC Lessee; B-Godolphin (IRE); T-Charles Appleby; J-William T. Buick. $1,040,000. Lifetime Record: 13-7-3-1, $3,176,716. *1/2 to Mawj (Ire) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}), GSW & G1SP-Eng, $153,786; 1/2 to Modern News (GB) (Shamardal), SW & MGSP-Eng, SP-UAE, $201,610. Werk Nick Rating: A++. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree or free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Shirl's Speight, 126, h, 5, Speightstown–Perfect Shirl, by Perfect Soul (Ire). 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Charles E. Fipke (KY); T-Roger L. Attfield. $340,000.
3–Kinross (GB), 126, g, 5, Kingman (GB)–Ceilidh House (GB), by Selkirk. 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Marcstown Thoroughbreds; B-Lawn Stud (GB); T-Ralph Beckett. $180,000.
Margins: 3/4, NO, NK. Odds: 1.38, 55.67, 9.39.
Also Ran: Ivar (Brz), Malavath (Ire), Order of Australia (Ire), Pogo (Ire), Beyond Brilliant, Smooth Like Strait, Regal Glory, Annapolis, Dreamloper (Ire), Front Run the Fed, Domestic Spending (GB). Scratched: Gear Jockey, King Cause.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Who Looks Good: Trackside Impressions From the Breeders’ Cup

LEXINGTON, KY–Over the past few days that I've been in Lexington, I've been asked the same question quite a few times by friends and family who are not in attendance. “Who looks good?”

So, I decided I'd share my opinions on who has stood out this week with our TDN readers as well. Quick disclaimer: I have not seen every single Breeders' Cup horse, but I have seen many of them.

It is the World Championships, so, of course, every horse here looks fantastic. This list is just a few of the horses who have really caught my eye in the mornings based on physical condition, mental composure and/or movement over the racetrack. It is purely based on trackside impressions, not on past performances.

  • FLIGHTLINE (Tapit) – Classic

As expected, the unbeaten sensation Flightline looks as good as he runs. I had the privilege of watching the GI Breeders' Cup Classic favorite grow up from the time he was a young foal until he sold at Fasig-Tipton's Saratoga Sale thanks to his wonderful breeder Jane Lyon. This was the first time I had seen him since and he certainly did not disappoint. Everything about the striking bay just screams athlete. He gobbles up ground in an effortless manner and the only indication of the amount of pure force and power being exerted is his rider Juan Leyva's tight hold and defensive stature in the saddle as he tries to rein in what trainer John Sadler referred to as a hurricane. Flightline is all business both on the track and when touring the barn or paddock. He has the cat-like walk all bloodstock agents and paddock analysts look for and never turned a hair despite the throng of media following his every move all week. In short, Flightline is exactly as advertised.

  • MALATHAAT (Curlin) – Distaff

To sum it up in one word, Malathaat is a queen. She oozes class in everything she does. Between her big white blaze, beautiful physical and eager gallop, the Shadwell colorbearer immediately grabs the attention of anyone in her presence. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been sending her out with the pony this week as rider Amelia Green said the filly knows the race is near and has been ready to roll in the mornings. The bay has been quite pleased with her sidekick and bounds off readily as soon as she is turned free from him. Her perfect record at Keeneland already indicates her love for this surface and she skipped over it with ease each morning.

I have had a hard time trying to decide whether I prefer the aforementioned champion Malathaat or her year-younger stablemate Nest, who has been nothing short of phenomenal this year. Unfortunately, seeing them both in the flesh did not help me choose as Nest is also quite eye-catching on the racetrack. If Malathaat is the queen, then Nest is certainly the princess. She bounces out alongside the pony and stands at attention as she waits to be let loose. Once given the signal, the bay leaps into action and coasts long on cruise control. Like her barnmate, Nest could not look any better in flesh, coat or movement.

  • CAVE ROCK (Arrogate) – Juvenile

Cave Rock is another whose physical certainly matches up with his strong performances. Despite his plain brown wrapper, the Bob Baffert runner immediately attracts the eye when he enters the track. He is very good-minded, especially for a 2-year-old who has never raced outside of California. He remained focused as he jogged backwards alongside assistant trainer Jimmy Barnes and kept that focus during his gallops and even during his paddock tour Wednesday. The paddock was full with media awaiting Flightline and Cave Rock strolled along beside his groom like a dog out for a walk, never turning a hair. His calm and cool attitude is reminiscent of his late, great sire. Back to his gallops, the dark bay is very light on his feet and travels over the Keeneland surface quite nicely.

  • CARAVEL (Mizzen Mast) – Turf Sprint

While she is a longshot on paper, Caravel could not look better in the mornings. The petite gray travels like a freight train, charging around the Keeneland oval like a mare on a mission with her neck bowed and back nice and round. When I saw her in the paddock later on, Caravel walked along with her head low and relaxed, quite the contrast from her on-track persona.

  • MODERN GAMES (IRE) (Dubawi {Ire}) – Mile

   Modern Games just looks like the happiest horse on the planet. He always has his ears pricked and a very pleasant expression on his face, no matter what he is doing. The chestnut, who seeks his second World Championships win, thunders over the track powerfully, ensuring he is not missed by any onlookers. The European invader's chestnut coat gleams like a new penny and he is fit as a fiddle.

  • REGAL GLORY (Animal Kingdom) – Mile

    Regal Glory is just an extremely cool horse in every sense of the word. The flashy chestnut has the presence to match her accomplishments when she enters the track. Training late when the track is quieter, Regal Glory jogs onto the track with enthusiasm every morning, head held high and ears at full attention as she takes in her adoring fans. She sails over the dirt with ease and will only look better on the turf course. The Peter Brant colorbearer is another who could not look better as far as coat and muscle condition.

If his morning appearance is any indication, Epicenter looks ready to rumble. The bay is a big ball of muscle with a gleaming coat to match. The sophomore has been under a snug hold by his rider and/or attached to a pony at his trainer's side each morning, which is an indication of his readiness. Epicenter travels over the track with big, powerful strides and is quite at home over the Lexington oval.

  • HONORABLE MENTIONS: Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music) (Sprint), Arrest Me Red (Pioneerof the Nile) (Turf Sprint), Laurel River (Into Mischief) (Dirt Mile), Taiba (Gun Runner) (Classic), Atomically (Girvin) (Juvenile Fillies), Forte (Violence) (Juvenile), Order of Australia (Ire) (Australia {GB}) (Mile), Life Is Good (Into Mischief) (Classic), Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) (Classic), Oxymore (Astern {Aus}) (Juvenile Turf Sprint), and Andthewinneris (Oscar Performance) (Juvenile Turf).

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