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Taking Stock: Performance vs. Stud Fee for the Small Owner-Breeder

By the time a stallion has established himself at stud, his fee is usually determined by performance, not the hype that surrounds new horses when they first enter stud. There are, of course, many ways to measure performance, including progeny earnings (which determines placement on the General Sires list), percent of black-type winners to named foals, quality of runners, number of Grade l winners, etc.

There are seven thoroughly proven stallions that will stand for $150,000 or more in North America in 2021, and these elite horses–Into Mischief ($225,000), Tapit ($185,000), Uncle Mo ($175,000), Curlin ($175,000), Medaglia d’Oro ($150,000), War Front ($150,000), and Quality Road ($150,000)–more than make the grade whichever way you slice and dice statistics. For instance, this select group sires black-type winners from named foals at rates of between 7% to 12% (see accompanying charts), which is the gold standard nowadays in the era of big books. [Note: Younger stallions will have lower percentages because their 2-year-old crops will be a larger percentage of the whole.]

Each year as the breeding season rolls around, a dwindling number of smaller owner-breeders frequently ask us at Werk Thoroughbred Consultants to recommend the best proven stallions standing for $15,000 or less. These people, who once made up a larger percentage of owners, need sires with track records, because they race what they breed and have no room for error. A shiny new horse at $15,000 is unproven and too much of a gamble for them, whereas that same first-year horse might well be the choice for a commercial breeder shopping in that price range. It just so happens, however, that the types of stallions best suited for small homebreeders are inexpensively priced these days, not because they lack performance but because they tend to be old and are mostly ignored by a large swath of folks who breed primarily to sell. And it’s the young stallions that sell.

Old stallions, like old people, tend to be underappreciated in a climate that rewards youth.

In fact, older proven stallions that aren’t elite are frequently priced lower than they should be if performance itself were the sole criteria for fee determination, but with them it’s not. They are simply not fashionable, even if they once were.

For those of you who breed to race, I’ve listed in another chart 10 favorite older stallions that will stand next year for $15,000 or less, and they were chosen primarily because they satisfy two criteria aside from my preferences for them: they are (or were last year) ranked on TDN‘s General Sires List; and they get a minimum of 5% black-type winners from named foals, which is a rate close enough to rub shoulders with some of the elite sires standing for $150,000 or more, but at a significantly lower fee that makes them both attractive and affordable for homebreeders. This group can get you a horse good enough to play with the big boys. There are a few others I could have included–my apologies–but didn’t for space considerations.

Here they are by descending stud fee; statistics are for the Northern Hemisphere:

Midnight Lute ($15,000) – This son of Real Quiet at Hill ‘n’ Dale is ranked #12 on the General Sires List, which puts him ahead of both War Front and Quality Road this year, and note also that he’s one of the younger horses in this group with nine crops of racing age. He gets 5% black-type winners from named foals and has demonstrated the ability to sire runners of the highest class, such as Eclipse Award winner Midnight Bisou, one of the best fillies of her generation. Altogether, he’s sired 33 black-type winners and four Grade l winners, including 2020 Gamely S. winner Keeper Ofthe Stars.

Lemon Drop Kid ($15,000) – Through 17 crops of racing age, this well-bred son of Kingmambo has sired 7% black-type winners from foals, the same as his mate Quality Road at Lane’s End. Lifetime, he has 96 black-type winners, including nine Grade l winners, and he’s ranked #44 on the General Sires List this year with such horses as Canadian classic winner Belichick, Glll Ontario Derby winner Field Pass, and 7-year-old French Group 2 winner Red Verdon. In Japan, he’s represented by Godolphin-owned 2-year-old Lemon Pop, who won a non-black-type Kentucky Derby points race on Nov. 28 at Tokyo after winning his debut before that. Though he gets top-level turf and all-weather runners, his daughter Lemons Forever won the Grade l Kentucky Oaks on dirt and has since become a Kentucky Broodmare of the Year.

Mineshaft ($15,000) – A sire of 51 black-type winners through 14 crops–six at Grade l level, including $3.3 million earner Effinex and successful Darby Dan sire Dialed In–he stands at Lane’s End alongside Lemon Drop Kid and is a son of A.P. Indy. He’s at #55 on the General Sires List and is represented this year by Glll Canadian Derby winner Real Grace in what for him is a slow year. He gets 5% black-type winners from foals.

Sky Mesa ($12,500) – This son of Pulpit has sired 73 black-type winners and four Grade l winners through 14 crops, and it’s notable that he’s also the sire of three Canadian champions that aren’t on his list of Grade l winners. Last year, his 2-year-old daughter Perfect Alibi won the Gl Spinaway S., and this year he’s represented by two 3-year-old black-type winners, both of them graded placed. He gets 7% black-type winners from foals, is ranked #66 on the General Sires List, and stands at Three Chimneys.

Stormy Atlantic ($10,000) – The elder statesman of this group, he’s a son of Storm Cat at Hill ‘n’ Dale with 19 crops of racing age. Throughout his career, he’s maintained a 7% rate of black-type winners to foals and altogether has so far sired 103 black-type winners and seven Grade l winners (eight, if you count one in Argentina). His gelded son Stormy Liberal won the Gl Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint twice and was an Eclipse Award-winning turf male, while in Canada he’s had three champion juveniles and Horse of the Year Up With the Birds, also a Grade l winner in the U.S. Among his top performers this year are Grade ll winner Big Runnuer, a 5-year-old; Grade lll winner Neptune’s Storm, a 4-year-old who won a Grade ll race last year; and 7-year-old Stormy Antarctic, a previous Group 2 winner who was second in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan in France in July. Though he’s unranked on the General Sires List in 2020 (he was ranked last year), he consistently gets sound and durable runners with a high degree of class.

Midshipman ($7,500) – This son of Unbridled’s Song at Darley is the youngest horse here with only seven crops of racing age – the same as Quality Road. He’s #47 on the General Sires List and to date is represented by 28 black-type winners in the Northern Hemisphere, a rate of 6% to foals. Though he doesn’t have a NH Grade l winner yet, he has three in Brazil, one of which, Royal Ship (Brz), is Grade ll-placed in California this year. His leading earner to date is Grade lll winner and Grade l-placed Lady Shipman ($902,387), whose son Golden Pal won the Gll Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint this year.

Mizzen Mast ($7,500) – Based at Juddmonte, this son of Cozzene has eight Grade l winners to his credit (nine, if you include another in Peru) from 60 black-type winners, for a rate of 6% black-type winners from foals. One, Flotilla, is a Gl Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner and a French classic winner, taking the G1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches at three. Another, Full Mast, is a Group 1 winner at two in France, while Sea Defence (also known as Giant Treasure) won a Group 1 at five in Hong Kong. His best-known runner, the mare Mizdirection, twice won the Gl Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and in California he’s had the winners of such races as the Gl Hollywood Derby at 10 furlongs on turf; the Gl Charles Whittingham Memorial at 10 furlongs on turf; and the Gl Hollywood Gold Cup at 10 furlongs on all-weather, among other prestigious races. Yes, he’s a turf sire with his best runners, but note that his daughter Sailor’s Valentine won the Gl Ashland S. at Keeneland on dirt. He’s #74 on the General Sires List.

Silent Name (Jpn) (C$7,500) – This son of Sunday Silence stands in Canada at Adena Springs and is represented by 27 black-type winners, or 7% from foals, and he’s #83 on the General Sires List. He doesn’t have a Grade l winner yet in the Northern Hemisphere (he has one in Brazil), but his graded winners include several who have placed at the highest level, including Grade ll winners Silentio and Fanticola, plus listed winner Mr. Online. His current runners are headed by Grade ll winner Silent Poet, a 5-year-old.

Freud ($6,500) – A Storm Cat brother to Giant’s Causeway, he’s a New York-based sire at Sequel with enough proven form nationally to take him out of the regional ranks, though he’s a must-use sire for the lucrative restricted program in New York. The sire of 55 black-type winners and four Grade l winners (plus an additional three in Argentina) through 16 crops, he gets 6% black-type winners from foals. His best include Gl Cigar Mile H. winner Sharp Azteca, now at stud at Three Chimneys. Freud isn’t ranked on the General Sires List this year, but he was last year.

Include ($5,000) – This son of Broad Brush at Airdrie is responsible for 45 black-type winners through 15 crops, including five Grade l winners (plus another five bred in Argentina), and he’s ranked #98 on the General Sires List. He gets 6% black-type winners to foals and has a notable bias for fillies: all five of his top-level winners are fillies, headed by millionaire Panty Raid. If you included his five Group 1 winners from Argentina, nine of the 10 are fillies. His top current runner, 3-year-old Grade ll winner Sconsin, also is a filly, but he does have champion Canadian juvenile colt Riker and Grade lll winner and Grade l-placed All Included among a smaller group of accomplished males.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Quality Road, Candy Ride Lead Lane’s End 2021 Stallion Roster

Lane's End in Versailles, Ky., has released the advertised fees for its 2021 stallion roster, led by top commercial sire Quality Road.

Like many of the major Kentucky stallion operations, Lane's End has decreased its stud fees nearly across the board to account for the uncertain economy both inside and outside the Thoroughbred industry.

The 2021 roster is led by elite commercial sire Quality Road, who will stand for $150,000. The 14-year-old son of Elusive Quality's runners have been led this year by Grade 2 winners Dunbar Road and Captain Scotty, along with Grade 3 winner Bellafina and Belmont Stakes runner-up Dr Post.

Quality Road's yearlings have posted an average sale price of $354,947 in 2020.

Veteran sire Candy Ride joins Quality Road at the top of this year's Lane's End roster, standing for $75,000.

A 21-year-old son of Ride the Rails, Candy Ride has seen his banner carried this year by multiple Grade 1 winner Vekoma, Grade 2 winner Rideforthecause, and multiple Grade 1-placed Ollie's Candy.

Lane's End will add three rookie stallions to its roster in 2021, along with hot sire Daredevil, who returns stateside from Turkey.

Game Winner, the champion 2-year-old of 2018, will stand for an initial fee of $30,000. The 4-year-old Candy Ride colt went undefeated during his juvenile season, capped off by an Eclipse-clinching victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.

Honor A. P. will enter stud for a fee of $15,000. A 3-year-old from the first crop of fellow Lane's End resident Honor Code, Honor A. P.'s on-track career was highlighted by a victory in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.

Rounding out the trio of newcomers is Grade 1 winner Gift Box, who will stand for $10,000. The 7-year-old Twirling Candy horse retired with earnings in excess of $1.1 million, with wins in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap, and two editions of the G2 San Antonio Stakes.

Daredevil joins the Lane's End roster in 2021 after standing the previous season in Turkey. The 8-year-old More Than Ready horse has been represented this year by Preakness Stakes winner Swiss Skydiver and Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil, and the two star fillies filled out the Oaks exacta. Daredevil will stand for $25,000 as property of the Turkish Jockey Club.

Following is the complete list of 2021 advertised fees for the Lane's End stallion roster:

STALLION	2021
Accelerate	$17,500
Candy Ride	$75,000
Catalina Cruiser	$15,000
City of Light	$40,000
Connect	$15,000
Daredevil	$25,000
Game Winner	$30,000
Gift Box	$10,000
Honor A. P.	$15,000
Honor Code	$20,000
Lemon Drop Kid	$15,000
Liam's Map ***	$30,000
Mineshaft	$15,000
Mr Speaker	$5,000
Quality Road	$150,000
The Factor	$17,500
Tonalist	$12,500
Twirling Candy	$40,000
Unified	$10,000
Union Rags	$30,000
West Coast	$20,000
*** until 11/5/2020, subject to change thereafter

The post Quality Road, Candy Ride Lead Lane’s End 2021 Stallion Roster appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Breeders’ Cup Presents Connections: Grace Encourages Cancer-Stricken Trainer ‘To Keep On Fighting’

The odds were certainly stacked against trainer Shelley Brown last Sunday night at Century Mile in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. A sudden, devastating Stage 4 cancer diagnosis just a few weeks before the G3 Canadian Derby meant that Brown watched the races from her couch over 800 miles away in Winnipeg, exhausted after a weekend in the hospital for treatment.

Her entrant, the 3-year-old gelding Real Grace, had won just one race, the Derby Trial at Assiniboia Downs back in July. He'd not returned to the winner's circle in three subsequent starts, making the running early and fading in the stretch, and was facing the longest race of his career in the 1 1/4-mile Canadian Derby.

The race's post time, nearly 11 p.m. in Winnipeg, meant Brown had to fight through her exhaustion to stay awake if she wanted to watch it live.

Sent to post at 18-1 odds, Real Grace led the field from gate-to-wire for a gutsy neck victory that lifted his trainer's spirits beyond what she'd even considered possible. It was her first graded stakes win, and it was also a win in the biggest race at her home track.

Brown watched via her smartphone as Real Grace entered the winner's enclosure. Track announcer Shannon Doyle said: “Congratulations Shelley, we are all with you.”

Amazing Grace, indeed.

The weeks leading up to the Canadian Derby had been some of the darkest weeks of her life, Brown explained. The 47-year-old was diagnosed on Sept. 3 with cancer, Stage 4, learning that it was in her lungs, bones, stomach, ovaries, breasts, and lymph nodes. Doctors told her that left untreated, she had between three and six months to live.

Considering that Brown had only gone to the hospital that morning for what she'd thought was a torn rotator cuff in her shoulder, the diagnosis was a complete shock.

“For someone to look at you and tell you that, there's a million emotions,” Brown said. “I thought, 'What am I gonna do? I've got horses here, horses in the States, property, horse trailers. … I can't even tell you. I just totally went numb.

“Your brain can be very hard on you. As soon as I got the diagnosis, I didn't want to get out of bed. I felt helpless, overwhelmed, and I just wanted to shut down.”

Brown had 40 horses in training at Assiniboia Downs, and had sent several, including Real Grace, to her friend and former employer, trainer Rod Cone, at Century Mile. She was planning to ship the rest of the string to Century Mile after the Assiniboia meet ended.

Instead, Brown found herself in a downward spiral, researching treatments and treatment centers online, awaiting test results, and trying desperately to understand how the cancer had progressed so quickly without her knowledge.

“As a horse person, we make a lot of excuses,” Brown reasoned. “There's always kind of a way you get banged here and bumped there. I was unbelievably tired, but I kept telling myself there were only three more weeks (until the meet ended at Assiniboia), so I was kind of begging myself to finish off the meet. Of course with COVID there wasn't a ton of help, so I often had to pitch right in. I thought, 'Well, I'm just working really hard and I'm tired from racing three nights a week, it's just the amount of work and racing, and that's why I'm so tired.'”

The days after her diagnosis were a blur. Her longtime assistant kept the barn running, and the news spread around the backside quickly. Just four days later, a friend on the backstretch set up a GoFundMe account to help cover Brown's medical bills.

(https://www.gofundme.com/f/u6f5p-cancer?utm_source=customer&utm_campaign=p_cp+share-sheet&utm_medium=copy_link_all)

Assiniboia even helped to set up an auction for Brown's tack, equipment, and several horses. She wanted to sell off everything, but other horsemen convinced her to keep a few things, some saddles and bridles and a few of the better horses, as a way of giving herself hope moving forward.

“I guess my whole life I've sort of felt like a lone wolf,” Brown said, her voice heavy with emotion. “It was never going to be easy for a woman to be in a male-dominated sport. I've held my own, but even in my personal life I've never really felt like I fit somewhere or belonged together. But, how the horsemen have come together for me through this, to see that, some of them I think we'll be friends for life through this. They've been so amazing and so helpful and so assuring, and these are people that I never expected. I just realize now that I'm not alone and these people are so important to me.

“If there was any doubt before, the question has been answered. These are my family.”

Since her parents had already passed on after battling cancer, Brown reached out to her brother and sister for help with the day-to-day things, like transportation to her doctor's appointments. Both responded immediately, but there wasn't much to do besides wait.

As a lifelong, hard-working horsewoman, and the first female trainer to ever win a training title at Assiniboia (2017), Brown said sitting back and doing nothing was an especially difficult mental challenge.

“Horses are seven days a week; when you commit to this, you commit to a lifestyle,” Brown said. “I guess if I could change anything, I would have listened to my body sooner.

“Now I look back, and I think, 'Oh my gosh, this started a long time ago.'”

She had seen her family doctor several times over the past few years. Last year, she felt a strange sensitivity on her spine, but he told her it was nothing. She asked to be sent for a mammogram, but he insisted she didn't need one. Earlier this season, she'd gone to see him when she felt short of breath for no real reason, but he told her she was just out of shape after gaining weight over the winter.

Sadly, it's not an unusual story for women's symptoms to be overlooked by their doctors.

“I think had I really listened to my body, I would have seen more signs,” she said.

Fast-forward to the week of the Canadian Derby, and Brown was still struggling with her frustrations. Biopsies had been sent away to labs for testing, but she was still awaiting an appointment with an oncologist since the test results weren't back yet.

Logically, she understood that doctors could not implement a treatment plan without understanding the exact kind of cancer ravaging her body. Emotionally, knowing that she had spent three weeks of what was possibly her final three months just waiting around for results was starting to get to her.

Brown had looked into the options, and knew the finances weren't in her favor. She'd decided that a combination of conventional and holistic medicine was the way she wanted to fight the cancer, and treatment centers in Mexico and the United States were both quite expensive.

Mexico was cheaper, of course, but she'd have to drive herself there and wouldn't have any sort of support system in place if things took a turn for the worse. And what if she got sick on the drive down to Mexico? Then she'd be in a U.S. hospital, and the bills would just keep rolling in.

Another trainer, Hazel Bochinski, happened to see Brown's GoFundMe page and sent her a message on Facebook recommending a local treatment center in Winnipeg. It offered several of the holistic treatments that Brown hoped to try, as well as a pay-as-you-go plan.

Now Brown had part of a plan in place, at least, but she still had to wait for the test results before she could start any treatments.

On Thursday, Cone called to check in on her and ask if she'd be attending the race on Sunday night. Unfortunately, Brown had been admitted to the hospital once again, this time with a partially collapsed lung.

“They tried to drain the lung twice, which is so painful because they cut in between your ribs,” Brown explained. “They couldn't drain it and so they weren't able to get fluid off. The pain was intense.”

Brown insisted she be let out of the hospital over the weekend, and felt better Saturday, well enough to take a drive with her siblings.

“Sunday, I wasn't well,” Brown said. “Of course, the race is so late, 11 p.m. at night local time. I don't have a lot of energy. I told my brother, 'The only way I'm going to stay awake is if I watch all the races, see how the track is playing.' With each race I got more discouraged, because my horse is a frontrunner and the track was not playing speed at all.

“I was actually able to stay awake, and I can't tell you the feeling I had to watch that race, watch that horse go to the front. I saw Synergy coming, the heavy favorite, and I thought he would blow right by us. My horse had to dig deep … Actually, the race was showing on a slight delay, because at the eighth pole my best friend's text popped up on screen, 'OMG you just won a Derby!'”

In fact, Real Grace held on through the wire to win by a neck over Something Natural and Rail Hugger. Cone was beyond thrilled as he led the Mineshaft gelding into the winner's circle, the three-time Canadian Derby-winning trainer calling Brown's victory the best win of his life.

Real Grace digs deep to win the G3 Canadian Derby

“No matter what happened, nothing could have made me happier than that race,” Cone told CBC Radio's Edmonton AM. “We did everything for Shelley and we were just overwhelmed.”

(https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/upset-victory-in-canadian-derby-inspires-horse-trainer-battling-cancer-1.5742728)

“All credit to Rod Cone,” Brown said. “If I would have had it in me, I would have loved to have been there. I bought this horse because I believed in him. We were disappointed (when he finished fifth) in the Manitoba Derby, so to win this one was so meaningful. I was a groom in Alberta growing up, so to be able to go back there and win such a prestigious race, it really just put the wind back in my sails.

“When there's no reason to get up in the morning, it was the one thing that made me go, 'You know what? This horse was 18-1, and he showed me what you can do if you just fight.'

“The next day I was a whole different person. It made me feel like, 'Don't you dare give up.' It was almost like a sign to say, 'This is what you can do.'”

On Monday, Brown finally had her first appointment with the oncologist, and her renewed sense of hope led to a surprising development. There was a drug, Ibrance, developed to treat her type of cancer. It was designed for post-menopausal women, so she'd have to be sent through medically-induced menopause first, but the drug was showing promising results.

“They feel like it can buy me three years,” Brown explained. “I was so happy to hear that. I thought, 'I can tie up loose ends, figure out how I want things done, instead of being in such a rush.' Of course, it isn't a guarantee, but now there's a chance.”

According to Brown, Ibrance is designed as more of a blocker that stops the cancer's progress, rather than killing the cancer outright. She plans to combine it with holistic treatments for the next three months, which the GoFundMe account will help pay for, and she has a backup plan in place to head to Mexico if the current plan doesn't seem to be working.

“When someone virtually hands you a death sentence, I can't imagine how, person to person, that would affect somebody,” Brown said. “Now I have possibly three years to work with, but the thought of the chance, maybe in that three years they can come up with something else, it at least that gives me hope to keep on fighting.”

The post Breeders’ Cup Presents Connections: Grace Encourages Cancer-Stricken Trainer ‘To Keep On Fighting’ appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Not This Time, Speightster Join Exclusive Club With Seven-Figure Juveniles

The reconfigured racing and auction calendar has allowed freshman sires to emerge simultaneously as leaders on the racetrack and in the auction ring, and the two stallions who have best grasped the opportunity in the early stages of 2020 are Not This Time and Speightster.

Both sires are already off the mark with their first winners, and they each stepped out on the commercial stage to have seven-figure juveniles from their respective first crops at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

Not This Time, a Grade 3-winning son of Giant's Causeway, had the sale-topper when Gary Young signed on a filly for $1.35 million. Speightster, a Grade 3 winner by Speightstown, jumped in during the auction's final offerings when Christina Jelm, bidding on behalf of Larry Best's OXO Equine, bought a colt for $1.1 million.

Not This Time and Speightster became the 19th and 20th North American stallions to knock down a seven-figure offering in their first crops of 2-year-olds since 2000, joining a group that also includes Hennessy, Stormy Atlantic, Sea of Secrets, Stephen Got Even, Fusaichi Pegasus, Dixie Union, Tiznow, Songandaprayer, Exchange Rate, Red Bullet, Johannesburg, Vindication, Mineshaft, Speightstown, Big Brown, Orb, Liam's Map, and American Pharoah.

However, getting over the million-dollar mark in that initial crop is no guarantee of short-term or long-term success at stud, with each member of the club's lot in life varying wildly from their common flashpoint.

For this analysis, we'll take a look at how the first 18 sires in the club – the “Group of 18,” for simplicity's sake – progressed at three different key points in their careers.

First, we'll see how their seven-figure auction horse fared to gauge immediate success. Then, we'll see how each stallion ranked among their respective freshman sire classes. Finally, we'll take a look at the big picture, and see how the group has performed throughout the course of their stallion careers.

In The Short Term – The Seven-Figure Sale Grads

The pressure on a seven-figure juvenile to perform on the racetrack is intense enough without adding the magnifying glass of having to help prove his or her freshman sire's credentials, to boot. No single runner can define a stallion's resume, but a seven-figure auction grad naturally becomes a billboard for what the market deems as the best that stallion has to offer.

None of the first-crop seven-figure juveniles by the “Group of 18” successfully paid for themselves on the racetrack, and their average earnings are just over $200,000. However, several of them carved out solid resumes in competition, which led to successful careers in the breeding shed.

The two gold standards in this regard are Munnings, the first seven-figure juvenile for Speightstown; and Harmony Lodge, who carried the banner for Hennessy.

After breezing an eighth in :10 flat at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Calder Selected 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale, Munnings sold to the Coolmore partnership for $1.7 million, the second-highest price of the sale. He'd go on to make $742,640 at the races, highlighted by victories in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens Stakes, Tom Fool Handicap, and Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship Stakes. He now resides at Ashford Stud in Versailles, Ky., where he nears a decade of service as one of the farm's most reliable stallions.

Harmony Lodge sold to Eugene Melnyk for $1.65 million at the 2000 Fasig-Tipton Calder Sale, and she'd go on to earn more than any other horse in the seven-figure freshman juveniles club, at $851,120. Her five graded stakes wins over five seasons of racing include the Grade 1 Ballerina Handicap, making her the group's only Grade 1 winner. She then went on to become a highly productive broodmare, with her progeny to date including Grade 3 winner Stratford Hill and Grade 3-placed stakes winner Armistice Day.

The most active horse of the group was Maltese Tiger, from the first crop of WinStar Farm's Tiznow, who raced 34 times, primarily in the claiming ranks at Turf Paradise and Emerald Downs. He won 10 times and finished second in another 13 races to earn $95,017.

His is one of the more curious paths among the group. After bringing $1 million at the 2005 Fasig-Tipton Calder sale, Maltese Tiger debuted as a 5-year-old at Turf Paradise for a $30,000 claiming tag, and finished an unclaimed second. He'd run to age nine, and after finishing his career at Les Bois Park, he became a sport horse.

In total, seven of the millionaires by the incumbent “Group of 18” were graded stakes winners. Two are unraced, though Manilenyo, an American Pharoah colt secured by Coolmore for $1.65 million at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Sale, is still in the midst of his 3-year-old season and has time to build his resume.

In The Mid-Term: The Freshman Sire Race

The performance of a sire's first crop in their 2-year-old season can define the trajectory of an entire stud career. A quick start can set a horse up for life, while a slow starter can lose the attention of mare owners, and potentially be moved to a secondary market by impatient farms.

With that in mind, the “Group of 18” finished all over the board in the freshman sire standings during their respective seasons, and where they finished in their rookie years was no guarantee of their long-term prospects.

For Not This Time and Speightster, the ideal roadmap for the remainder of the year probably looks like the one Johannesburg took in 2006.

Johannesburg saw La Traviata go to the Coolmore partnership for $1.1 million at that year's Fasig-Tipton Calder sale, and the filly was on the frontlines for her sire's near-sweep of the freshman standings. The stallion ended the year first among rookie sires by runners, winners, stakes winners, and graded stakes winners, and second by earnings, helped greatly by Scat Daddy's wins in the G1 Champagne Stakes and G2 Sanford Stakes. La Traviata contributed to the equation with a score in the G3 Victory Ride Stakes.

Johannesburg had seven total stakes winners in his freshman season, which was the most among the “Group of 18,” and one better than Fusaichi Pegasus. His three graded winners tied with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah for the most in the group, as well.

Among the “Group of 18,” if Johannesburg did not claim the top spot in a significant freshman category, he finished second to Ashford Stud's American Pharoah.

The son of Pioneerof the Nile became the second sire in the group to have a Breeders' Cup winner among his freshman-sired runners, when Four Wheel Drive took last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He joined Tiznow, who had Folklore in the 2005 Juvenile Fillies.

American Pharoah was part of a deep and diverse freshman class last year, but the fervor surrounding his historic Triple Crown win brought in a high volume of mares to his first book, and in turn put a high volume of runners on the track. He led the freshman class of 2019 by runners, winners, and earnings, and he was second by stakes winners (four) and graded winners (three).

Among the “Group of 18,” his 72 runners and 27 winners were the most in the club during their respective freshman seasons, and his progeny earnings of $2,703,916 was nearly $1 million ahead of second-place Johannesburg.

Also of note, Tiznow was the only group member with an Eclipse Award winner in his freshman season, with Breeders' Cup winner Folklore also taking home champion 2-year-old filly honors.

What's especially interesting about this snapshot of the group is who performed poorly.

Mineshaft entered stud at Lane's End in 2004 off a Horse of the Year campaign a season earlier, and the commercial interest made itself clear when B. Wayne Hughes went to $1.75 million for Patricia's Gem at 2007 Keeneland April 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

However, Mineshaft mustered just nine winners from his freshman crop, ranking him 25th in his class. His runners made $311,830, good for 17th. He had one overall stakes winner, and no graded winners. Patricia's Gem went on to become a Grade 1-placed runner in later seasons, but she was winless at two.

Stephen Got Even, who also stood at Lane's End, also failed to get off the mark early after Dubai Dreamer sold to Godolphin for $3.1 million at the 2004 Calder sale. He finished his first year with seven winners (32nd in his freshman class), no stakes winners, and $317,857 in progeny earnings (26th among freshmen and second-least among the “Group of 18”).

As will be seen in the next section, Lane's End was rewarded for its patience with both stallions after their first youngsters didn't keep pace with the lofty juvenile sale prices. Stephen Got Even stood 15 seasons at Lane's End until his pensioning at the end of 2015, and he is buried on the farm. Mineshaft is wrapping up his 17th season at stud, and has become a prolific source for classic runners.

In The Long-Term: The Full Career

The most important question for any sire that starts fast in the commercial arena is whether they can sustain that early momentum over the course of their stud career. Like the first two touchstones, there is no clear-cut trail among the “Group of 18,” but the outcomes are generally more positive than negative.

The stallion with arguably the most complete resume after getting a seven-figure juvenile at auction from his first crop is Tiznow.

Not only is the son of Cee's Tizzy the only member of the “Group of 18” to chalk up both an Eclipse Award winner (Folklore) and a classic winner (Da'Tara in the 2008 Belmont Stakes), he leads all sires in the group by progeny starts in Triple Crown races (14) and his two Breeders' Cup victories (Folklore in the 2005 Juvenile Fillies and Tourist in the 2016 Mile) ties him for first with Speightstown and Stormy Atlantic.

Speightstown, a fellow WinStar Farm resident, has also fared well in his stud career, leading this group by Breeders' Cup starts by a wide margin, with 32, including 2016 Dirt Mile winner Tamarkuz and 2019 Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Sharing. He also leads the group by earnings with $111,713,652, which is especially impressive considering the stallion has never had a starter in a Triple Crown race.

After a quiet start in his freshman season, Mineshaft has compiled one of the more impressive resumes in the group, especially in regards to classic starts. The 12 appearances by Mineshaft offspring ranks him a close second behind Tiznow, and he is one of just seven in the group with a Breeders' Cup winner.

Vindication, Dixie Union, and Hennessy saw their careers cut short by early deaths. Dixie Union in particular made the most of his abbreviated time at stud, with 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags making his sire one of just two in the group with a U.S. classic winner.

Four sires have gotten Eclipse Award winners, and fittingly, three of them were for 2-year-olds. In addition to Folklore bringing home the hardware for Tiznow, Johannesburg snagged champion juvenile male honors for Hennessy in 2001, and Stevie Wonderboy earned the same title for Stephen Got Even in 2005. Stormy Atlantic is the outlier in the group, with Stormy Liberal winning the champion turf male title in 2018.

Two sires in the “Group of 18” sired future group members themselves. Hennessy is the sire of champion juvenile Johannesburg, while Speightstown brought in the 20th member, Speightster.

The Kentucky stallion market can be quick to relocate a stallion if they underperform, but this group has done an admirable job sticking around. As the 2020 breeding season draws to a close, 11 of the 18 veteran members have spent their entire Northern Hemisphere stallion careers in Kentucky. Meanwhile, Stormy Atlantic and Exchange Rate moved to Kentucky early in their stud careers, after their first crops started fast when they were Florida residents.

On the other side of the coin, the title for the least successful member of the “Group of 18” by lifetime achievement likely falls to Sea of Secrets.

The stallion gained plenty of buzz when his colt Diamond Fury sold for a then-world record $2.7 million at the 2003 Barretts March Sale, but Sea of Secrets never found his footing at the highest level of competition. After standing his first five seasons at Walmac Farm in Lexington, Ky., he was moved to California, where he remained for the rest of his career.

Though he became a respectable sire in his new home state, Sea of Secrets' three graded stakes winners was the least among the group members with 10 or more crops of racing age, and American Pharoah matched the feat in his freshman season alone.

The post Not This Time, Speightster Join Exclusive Club With Seven-Figure Juveniles appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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