mind your biscuits | Horse Racing Free Tips

NYTB Honors Legendary New York-Bred Trio On Sunday

Connections from champions Dayatthespa (City Zip), Mind Your Biscuits (Posse) and Saratoga Dew (Cormorant) will be honored by the New York Thoroughbred Breeders, Inc. during their Showcase Day program after the sixth race on Sunday, Aug. 27 at Saratoga Race Course, the organization said in a release Thursday.

The trio were chosen by a panel of New York turf writers and represent the second class of honorees, joining last year's inaugural group of Fio Rito (Dreaming Native), Commentator (Distorted Humor), Fourstardave (Complicance), Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) and Tiz The Law (Constitution).

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‘The Luckiest Moment In My Life’: Yoshida on Sunday Silence

HOKKAIDO, Japan–In the bloodstock world, the battle for succession does not come down to unseemly squabbles in the boardroom. What matters first is what happens on the track, and even when all goes right there, success in the breeding shed is far from guaranteed.

Smallish in stature but a Goliath in influence and reputation, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Northern Dancer gave the European breeding industry many stars including, crucially, Sadler's Wells, whose line holds strong predominantly through Galileo (Ire) and his heir apparent, Frankel (GB). Northern Dancer also blessed Japan with an important influence in Northern Taste, bought as a yearling at Saratoga in 1972 by Zenya Yoshida before winning the G1 Prix de la Foret and then establishing a formidable stud career as the most successful stallion Japan had ever seen. Until Sunday Silence came along.

The latter, who inherited the feisty temperament of his sire Halo and was handed far-from-perfect conformation, had a storyline that was as chequered as it is fabled. Sunday Silence famously found little favour with American breeders when he retired from racing, despite having won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness S. and Breeders' Cup Classic, all the while engaging in a gripping two-season battle with Easy Goer. His part-owner Arthur Hancock III decided, wisely at the time, to quit while he was ahead with the near-black horse who had played a significant part in saving his Stone Farm from bankruptcy. With Sunday Silence already part-owned by Zenya Yoshida, who had bought into him at the end of his three-year-old season, the rest of the stallion was offered for sale to stand in Japan without ever covering a mare in Kentucky. It was very much America's loss.

Yoshida, whose sons Teruya, Katsumi and Haruya now dominate Japanese racing and breeding, died when members of Sunday Silence's first crop were still yearlings. Little could he have envisaged the influence the horse would have 30 years later, not just within the Shadai Stallion Station, where 14 of the 32 resident stallions are his male-line descendants, but across Japan and beyond. This year, on the Epsom Downs and the Curragh, his grandson Auguste Rodin (Ire) has given a mighty last shake of the rattle to Sunday Silence's most powerful son, Deep Impact (Jpn), who died woefully early at just 17, in 2019. Who now will pick up the baton for this line of succession?

Kizuna (Jpn), the second of Deep Impact's seven winners of the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), started well by becoming the champion first-season sire of 2019, and he is currently sitting in third place in the Japanese sires' table behind Lord Kanaloa (Jpn) and the late Duramente (Jpn), both of whom are sons of King Kamehameha (Jpn), who himself died just a fortnight after Deep Impact. It is quite clear, however, which horse Teruya Yoshida, head of Shadai Farm, wishes to see take up the mantle.

“Contrail (Jpn) is coming this year and my first impression is that he could be a very good stallion–maybe Coolmore will start to send their mares again,” he says of the horse who emulated Deep Impact when winning the Japanese Triple Crown in 2020 and was a champion in each of his three seasons on the track, culminating in victory in the Japan Cup. Contrail's first foals will be on display this Tuesday during the JRHA Select Sale in Hokkaido's Northern Horse Park.

His 21 youngsters catalogued include a son of the Argentinean Grade I winner Conviction (Arg) (City Banker {Arg}). The February-born colt, who is lot 360 in the Northern Farm draft, has been issued a reserve price of ¥50,000,000 (approximately £274,000 or €320,000) in a system which is unique to Japan, and which would knock hours off sales in other jurisdictions, whereby the auctioneer opens the bidding at the published reserve.

Much is made of the turf/dirt debate, but the divide can be slim when it comes to horses acting on the respective surfaces. The 'dirt horse' Sunday Silence begat Deep Impact, who raced solely on turf, but rarely on anything easier than firm, and whose dam was the Irish-bred Wind In Her Hair (Alzao), herself only three generations down from Northern Dancer. American influences have long been strong in Japan, and the current flavour of the month, maybe more, is the dirt sprinter Mind Your Biscuits (Posse), who waltzed off with leading freshman honours last year. He is the sire of the wide-margin winner of the G2 UAE Derby, Derma Sotogake (Jpn), who went on to finish sixth in the Kentucky Derby.

“Mind Your Biscuits covered more than 200 mares this year,” says Yoshida. “The really good mares are still going to turf stallions but most of the breeders in Japan with more ordinary mares have a tendency to go to stallions who run on dirt. Most of the races in Japan are performed on dirt, so that's what the buyers want, and they have a dream to go to Dubai or to the Kentucky Derby.”

He adds, “We keep trying to buy good stallion prospects, not only from America, and sometimes they turn out to be good, but not every time. It's the same with yearlings.”

A slower burner among the younger stallion brigade in Japan has been Kitasan Black (Jpn). The winner of seven Grade 1 races, from 10 furlongs to two miles, he is a son of Deep Impact's brother Black Tide (Jpn), who plies his trade at the Breeders Stallion Station. Kitasan Black moved in to the Shadai Stallion Station on his retirement in 2018 and, though not under-subscribed, he wouldn't have been among the busiest on the roster. However, from his first batch of 84 foals emerged the horse now being ascribed superstar status, Equinox (Jpn), while his second crop contained this year's Japanese 2,000 Guineas winner and Derby second Sol Oriens (Jpn). His numbers, unsurprisingly, are on the up.

“People are very keen on Kitasan Black,” says Yoshida. “He produces very tough horses, but he wasn't so popular at the start. Now, from this year, people have started to breed their best mares to him, and he's a very fertile horse.”

While we already knew that Equinox, currently the top-rated horse in the world, would not be appearing in Europe this season, it is now almost certain that he won't leave his home nation again, even for the Breeders' Cup, with the Japan Cup on November 26 his key target before retirement.

Equinox is not alone in avoiding Britain this season. There were no Japanese runners at Royal Ascot, and nor will there be at York and Goodwood. And it's not just the lower level of prize-money in the UK that is an issue.

European classification of the racing is very correct. If we buy Group 2 or Group 3 mares in Europe, that is their true level.

Yoshida says, “English racing is not easy for us. If Japanese horses go to Europe during the summer when it's dry then maybe we have a better chance of success, but we have many races in Japan too, so it is not easy to send a horse to Europe to race.”

The expanding racing programme and huge sums of money on offer in the Gulf nations through the winter are already having an effect on the horse population in Europe, and it may well mean that we will see fewer Japanese horses contesting races on the more irregular and often undulating tracks of Britain, Ireland and France.

“We are racing [on the Flat] all year round, so it is easier for us to send horses to race in the Middle East in February and March,” Yoshida explains. “For European horses it is not so easy as there are not the big races through the winter. Japanese horses like fast ground and level ground. In England, the courses are more natural and it's not so easy for Japanese horses. In Dubai or Saudi it is more similar to racing in Japan. If we go to Europe we can encounter soft ground or a different way of running.”

One thing that is unlikely to change is the frequency with which Japanese buyers appear at the European sales.

“We are looking for good horses from anywhere in the world and buying the good-quality mares from Europe is very important,” says Yoshida. “European classification of the racing is very correct. If we buy Group 2 or Group 3 mares in Europe, that is their true level. In some other countries we can't believe in it, but if we buy them in Europe we know that they are good-class horses.”

And it is not only in America that the Yoshida family goes shopping for stallions. Jim and Jackie Bolger's 2,000 Guineas winner Poetic Flare (Ire) joined the Shadai roster last year and is another with first foals at the forthcoming JRHA Sale. While Harbinger (GB) remains at Shadai, his fellow King George winner Novellist (Ger) has moved to Lex Stud.

Yoshida says, “We had very good success with Tony Bin (Ire), an Italian winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Everybody said at the start that he was so-so but he became a very good stallion. We don't know until we try. That happens with horses. Nobody knows what will happen. Like Wootton Bassett (GB), at the start people didn't care so much but now that has changed.”

He continues, “Sunday Silence became so good and now he is grandsire of the English Derby winner. It was great for Coolmore to send their best mare to breed to Deep Impact, and then for [Auguste Rodin] to turn out to be so good, and now a stallion prospect.

“I was a bit apprehensive when I saw him walking from the parade ring to the starting gate because he was dancing, and you want mile-and-a-half horses to be relaxed, but he always does it and still he runs well.”

If my father hadn't bought the farm in Kentucky, this wouldn't have happened. Economy-wise, it was a big mistake because we lost a lot of money in having that farm, but in the end we got the best investment ever.

Sunday Silence himself did a little more than just dance when he was in training but, still, he ran well. So too did many of his offspring.

“Most of our good runners in Japan now have Sunday Silence blood somewhere,” Yoshida says, and casts his mind back to his own days in the Bluegrass.

“My father bought a farm in Kentucky, and it was very near to Arthur Hancock's farm. I was there for four or five years and during that time I became a good friend of Arthur. When Sunday Silence appeared I congratulated Arthur and he suggested to me that we should own some of the horse.

“After that he found that not many people were interested in him as a stallion in America and he asked me to buy the horse. I bought the horse without any hesitation. At the time, $11 million was very expensive, but the Japanese economy was very good and we were able to say yes. It was the luckiest moment in my life.”

He adds, “If my father hadn't bought the farm in Kentucky, this wouldn't have happened. Economy-wise, it was a big mistake because we lost a lot of money in having that farm, but in the end we got the best investment ever. Sunday Silence changed Japanese racing.”

And let's not forget, he arrived just before the end of Northern Taste's reign in the sires' championship in Japan, that ran from 1982 to 1992.

“If you look at the history of Kentucky Derby winners, not that many become really good stallions, so I understand why American breeders were cautious,” Yoshida notes. “But at that time we were very innocent in American racing so when they asked us if we wanted to buy the horse, we did it without hesitation. Lucky! Knowing too much is not always good.”

In the quest to continue a line that has become so dominant, Yoshida knows that despite having a number of sons of Deep Impact in the pipeline, not all will light the spark that could ignite a successful second career.

“Look at Northern Dancer: as stallions, not all of his good sons became successful,” he says. “When I went to Saratoga to buy Northern Taste I didn't know he would become a Group 1 winner in Europe and that he would become the leading sire in Japan 11 years straight. He was a very inbred horse and I was a little bit worried about that. But he lived a long time, he died when he was almost 30 years old, and he was always a very healthy horse.”

Yoshida adds, “It was just lucky, and that happened in the beginning. Then Sunday Silence came. Then Deep Impact. Maybe Contrail will come next.”

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Tuesday’s Kentucky Derby Report: Trio of Breezers Bring the Morning ‘Thunder’

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — A trio of GI Kentucky Derby workers enjoyed the spotlight during training hours on a brisk Tuesday morning beneath the Twin Spires.

Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits) was hard held beneath Masatoshi Segawa and ready to do much more as he hit the top of the stretch. He finished up strongly once let loose down the lane and completed his four-furlong breeze in :49.60 (13/20). The G2 UAE Derby winner will be ridden in the Kentucky Derby by Christophe Lemaire.

His countrymate Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby), a fantastic second beaten just a nose in the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby in his U.S. debut and currently on the outside looking in on the Kentucky Derby also-eligible list, worked five furlongs in a leisurely 1:05.60 (15/15). He will target the second leg of the Triple Crown if unable to secure a spot in the Derby.

The blinkered Sun Thunder (Into Mischief) also breezed during the 15-minute training window reserved for Kentucky Derby and Oaks horses as temperatures hovered in the mid-40s just after 7:30 a.m. The GI Blue Grass S. fourth-place finisher worked a “maintenance half-mile” beneath jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. in :47.80 (3/20). Trainer Ken McPeek's best result from eight previous Kentucky Derby starters was a second-place finish with Tejano Run in 1995.

As for Tuesday's Derby gallopers, a pair of grays made their presence felt on the sunsplashed backstretch.

'TDN Rising Star' and $1.3-million KEEESEP yearling purchase Tapit Trice (Tapit) immediately caught the eye as trainer Todd Pletcher watched his three Derby runners train near the chute.

Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) also made a very favorable impression for trainer Brad Cox galloping powerfully with his neck arched.

The Pletcher barn was the place to be afterwards as champion 2-year-old colt and 'Rising Star' Forte (Violence), the unbeaten Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo) and the aforementioned Tapit Trice got cleaned up following their routine 1 3/8-mile gallops.

Forte co-owner Mike Repole, sporting an Uncle Mo jacket, of course, was among a very large group of admirers lined up to get a closer look at the Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite as training hours began to wind down.

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TDN Derby Top 20: Upheaval in the Ranks

A new kingpin graces the No. 1 slot after a wild, final weekend of 100-point preps. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths, with several horses included here who are currently below the cut.

1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move leapfrogs into the No. 1 spot because his well-executed GI Santa Anita Derby score (100 Beyer Speed Figure) asserts him as the no-nonsense “momentum” horse heading to Louisville. In winning the strongest of the three nine-furlong preps run Saturday, this son of Practical Joke ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) pressured the field into submission, and he has not yet indicated he is close to bottoming out, stamina-wise. His stay-in-touch stalking style and obvious comfort level at being covered up on the inside are highly desirable traits for a Derby contender.

Practical Move won the two fastest 1 1/16-miles Derby qualifying stakes in 2022-23 (1:41.65 in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity and 1:42.01 GII San Felipe S.). His winning time of 1:48.69 in the Santa Anita Derby is also quickest of all the nine-furlong preps.

Unhurried at the break, jockey Ramon Vazquez secured an inside run behind a blazing :22.30 opening quarter in the Santa Anita Derby. He chipped away at the margin down the backstretch, and for the third graded stakes in a row, Practical Move rode the rail to menace the pacemaker. Seizing the lead while still in hand before the quarter pole, the even-money Practical Move then fended off a determined Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) to win by a nose while keeping a wide-and-driving Skinner comfortably at bay a half-length back in third.

Practical Move has yet to display an overdriven “Wow!” gear late in the lane. But being able to crank up the torque without being flashy about it can certainly earn a blanket of roses on Derby day.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star' . O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) goes into the Derby as the East Coast kingpin and reigning divisional champ. But while Practical Move ended his prep season with an exclamation point, Forte's final prep resonated more like a question mark, because at 1-5 odds he was expected to deliver a shellacking to s soft-on-paper GI Florida Derby field.

Yes, this son of Violence did win with his ears pricked after giving himself too much work to do. And his loping, 4 ½-furlong move did not come at the expense of jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., having to drill this colt in order to power past the pesky Mage (Good Magic). Five-sixteenths out, Forte looked beaten. But once he got rolling, Forte uncoiled on cue, giving off a “Don't worry, I've got this!” vibe to win by a measured length.

The 20-horse Derby will be different. It was a tactical revelation to hear Ortiz say post-race that “We went to the first turn and those horses cleared me and I said, 'Oh my God.' I thought he could clear them and he didn't do it.”

Forte just might have the most devastating late-race kick in the Derby. But if he can't attain good early positioning, he won't have a stable launching pad to set up his proven far-turn run.

3) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Three horses were bobbing heads at the wire of the GII Wood Memorial. Although this homebred for Gary and Mary West ended up second, he ran the best race in terms of boosting his chances in the Derby.

This Candy Ride (Arg) colt went off as the 17-10 favorite, and although he didn't challenge for the lead from post 12, he was in the hunt five wide on the clubhouse bend before taking up a stalking spot while fifth, about five lengths off a moderate first two quarters in :24.88 and :24.12.

The cadence quickened through a :23.88 third quarter, and Hit Show was on the prowl three deep through the turn. He was bottled up off the bend, had to be switched off the heels in upper stretch, then both gave and took some light slam-dancing while sparring in the middle of a three-way go through the final furlong.

The hedge here is that this May 9 foal can build off that effort, especially when you consider Hit Show has already won at nine furlongs (in the GIII Withers. S.). In addition, his Beyers show a nice, ascending arc of 60-71-82-91-93 through five career tries.

4) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP), a Justify colt who will not hit his third birthdate until five days after the Derby, picked a stellar time to run his breakthrough “coming out” race when second, beaten a nose, in the GI Blue Grass S.

A half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou, Verifying broke forwardly but conceded the lead to an 86-1 sacrificial pacemaker. Tyler Gaffalione let that long shot roll onto the back straight while sitting second with his 2.3-1 mount, then tightened that open-length gap 5 ½ furlongs out.

Cognizant of 'TDN Rising Star' and 1.2-1 favorite Tapit Trice (Tapit) making a bold move to his outside, Verifying took control at the five-sixteenths pole. Gaffalione braced for the quarter-pole challenge of Tapit Trice by deftly floating that favorite out to the five path.

The two then threw down in a length-of-stretch slugfest that included some inconsequential bumping and brushing, with Verifying twice clawing back the lead before Tapit Trice snatched it away by a neck at the wire. The two co-earned 99 Beyers.

Verifying has won twice, but never at the stakes level. He had enough speed to break his maiden over six furlongs at the Spa last summer, and also took down a key-race allowance going a mile at Oaklawn in January, out of which the second- and third-place horses came back to win their next starts as favorites.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

Tapit Trice would not be denied in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. | Coady Photography

There's a good chance 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is evolving into a powerhouse with a knack for extricating himself from tight predicaments and finding a way to win at all costs.

But his slow-to-go nature marks this son of Tapit as a “heart attack” type of horse who scares the daylights out of his backers by constantly having to be pumped on for run by rider Luis Saez before he accomplishes his task by only as much as it takes to win narrowly.

That was the way Tapit Trice scored in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby (a crew that will not yield any other Kentucky Derby qualifiers), and it was a similar story in Saturday's tougher Blue Grass S.

After hustling this burly gray from the one post, Saez had to throttle back before the field passed the mile marker. The colt settled to seventh entering the backstretch, got guided outside, and was already on the march six furlongs from the wire.

Tapit Trice was jointly third by the half-mile pole, and as the lead changed in front of him, he went relentlessly after Verifying off the turn. They raced in lockstep while exchanging love taps and the lead, but Tapit Trice had more at the finish.

Despite the victory, the overall takeaway is that Tapit Trice's loop-the-group tactics simply don't align with the profiles of recent Derby winners. Eight of the last nine Derbies have been won by horses racing either right up front or just off the lead. Thus, despite winning his last two stakes in respectable, off-the-tailgate fashion, Tapit Trice takes a haircut in the rankings, dropping from third to fifth.

6) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

This 3-for-3 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) led at every call through moderate fractions to win the GII Louisiana Derby (95 Beyer) by 3 ½ lengths.

Although light on experience race-wise, Kingsbarns is developing a businesslike, no-drama demeanor. Ranked by foaling date (Jan. 17), he's also the oldest of the Top 20 competitors.

This colt doesn't necessarily need the lead. But this Todd Pletcher trainee is in his comfort zone either setting the pace or forcing the issue from just behind the leaders.

He's also already checked the “overcomes adversity” box. As the 3-1 favorite in his one-turn-mile Gulfstream debut, Kingsbarns was unbothered by being smothered at the rail in tight quarters on the turn. He later got blocked badly at the head of the lane before coming up with a decisive, punch-through run that resulted in a 1 3/4-length victory (74 Beyer).

Race number two didn't require as much effort, but it was useful. In a mile and 40 yards first-level allowance at Tampa, Kingsbarns let a 37-1 shot open up a long lead, then reeled him in with ease to finish 7 ¾ lengths ahead of the pack (85 Beyer).

7) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Reincarnate hasn't been to the winner's circle since his Jan. 8 GIII Sham S. score, and his Beyers are drifting in the wrong direction at age three (95-90-86). But I wouldn't discount him as a rebounding, front-end factor in the Derby.

This large-framed, long-striding $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic has never been off the board from seven starts, all at a mile or longer.

Reincarnate has twice flown to Oaklawn since Feb. 25 rom his Santa Anita training base, running third in both the GII Rebel S. (with a troubled trip) and the GI Arkansas Derby (ideal stalking setup but failed to fire).

At somewhere in the 25-1 range, I'd have a hard time excluding Reincarnate from Derby exotics, although his lack of a positive-momentum final prep precludes keying on him to win.

8) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Disarm is the highest-ranked Top 20 contender who is outside looking in, points-wise. He's currently parked at No. 26 on the qualifying list with 40 points and needs help from defectors.

This Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred rates so highly because it's unlikely we've seen his best effort at age three. Whether his prime-time bust-out comes 3 ½ weeks from now in the Derby or 3 ½ months from now as a later developer is the question.

Remember, his sire, Gun Runner, ran third as the 2016 Derby, finished on the board in a series of graded stakes into the summer and fall, but didn't burst onto the scene until after the Breeders' Cup, when he won the GI Clark H. (and seven of his eight final races against top-class competition).

Disarm has been at a tactical disadvantage trying to pull back lone-speed pacemakers twice in 2023, first in an allowance at Oaklawn Feb. 19, and again, with inside trip trouble, in the Louisiana Derby.

9) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Angel of Empire dominated the GI Arkansas Derby | Coady Photography

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) sails into the Derby off back-to-back, come-from-behind wins at nine furlongs in the GII Risen Star S. (89 Beyer) and Arkansas Derby (94 Beyer). This two-time sales entrant ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) will seek to become the third Pennsylvania-bred to win the Derby, after Lil E. Tee (1992) and Smarty Jones (2004).

“I think he's capable of winning [the Derby],” trainer Brad Cox said on the Apr. 6 TDN Writers' Room podcast. “We have to get better and we may have to have Forte stub his toe in order to beat him. But 20-horse field, it's a demanding, challenging race, bottom line. If you make the field that's why you go, so many things can happen.”

10) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

If you discount his rough-trip fifth debuting at five furlongs way back on June 23 and his seventh behind Forte in the key-race GI Breeders' Futurity S.(when Two Phil's got bounced around at the break), this is a colt with four wins (two at Grade III) and a second and third in two other graded stakes.

His 101-Beyer score in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks was a sizable 15-point jump off his previous effort in the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. That's a stout number, but it's so far removed from his normal range that it leads to speculation about whether triple digits on the Beyer scale are sustainable for Two Phil's.

Versatility and a “do your job” attitude are the twin strengths of Two Phil's. He's won sprinting and routing over fast dirt, slop and now Tapeta, and you have to admire how he's been in it to win it at least until the upper stretch every time he's raced.

11) MANDARIN HERO (JPN) (c, Shanghai Bobby–Namura Nadeshiko {Jpn}, by Fuji Kiseki {Jpn}) O-Hiroaki Arai; B-Hirano Bokujo (Jpn); T-Terunobu Fujita. Lifetime Record: GISP, 6-4-2-0, $386,854. Last start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby), victorious in four of five starts in Japan (only loss by a neck), popped with an impressive 8-1 runner-up try in the Santa Anita Derby. But the 40 qualifying points he garnered (24th) are still shy of a certain Derby berth.

His sharp United States debut would have been good enough to win the Santa Anita Derby in most years. Mandarin Hero broke fifth, tucked into the two path around the first turn, then had to wait for room into the far turn. Committed to inside passage by jockey Kazushi Kimura, he patiently waited some more, then dove through at the fence off the turn.

In upper stretch Mandarin Hero had his momentum briefly stalled as Kimura repositioned him off the favorite's heels. But Mandarin Hero still maintained his focus on Practical Move even while a fresh rival, Skinner (Curlin), was bearing down outside. This colt was getting to the winner; they were separated by a nose and co-earned 100 Beyers.

12) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

The eye-catching, far-turn move by Mage ($235,000 KEESEP; $290,000 EASMAY) was slightly premature in the Florida Derby. But it catapulted him to the lead, and he showed he knew what to do to defend his position once he hit the front, sharply repulsing a bid from the more experienced Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief).

All the while Forte was taking dead aim. Even though this son of Good Magic had little left to stave off the 1-5 fave, Mage's effort still rates as impressive considering his lack of seasoning (just three races) and the fact that that no horse has finished that close to the champ in three other races over the last six months.

If a Forte-vs.-Mage rivalry continues to percolate, you can trace it back to a grudge match their dams started. Mage is out of the Bill Mott-trained Puca, who won her only stakes race in a $75,000 turfer at Suffolk Downs in 2017. She scored by 1 ¾ lengths over the Michael Matz-trained Queen Caroline, who would go on to foal Forte.

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate..

13) Skinner (Curlin)
Skinner ($40,000 KEESEP; $510,000 OBSAPR) stamped himself as an outside Louisville threat who figures to be flying under the radar, odds-wise. In the Santa Anita Derby, this noticeably maturing son of Curlin broke well but was asked to settle second from last by Victor Espinoza. Skinner started to pick off midpack targets with a purposeful move three-eighths out, then swung four wide for the drive. He briefly brushed with a tiring 54-1 shot, dug in, and stayed on decently. Skinner ended up beaten half a length by Practical Move and Mandarin Hero, earning a 99 Beyer that leaves room for improvement. Trainer John Shirreffs orchestrated Giacomo's 50-1 Kentucky Derby win in 2005 off a fourth-place try in the Santa Anita Derby. At No. 21 on the qualifying list, Skinner needs one defection to make the cut.

14) Lord Miles (Curlin)
Lord Miles outran his 59-1 odds in a shocker of a score in the Wood Memorial. Is he a one-race wonder, or just starting to blossom? He broke forwardly, pressed the pacemaker, then backed off to fourth on the back straight. It looked for a few strides like he was starting to lose touch into the far bend, but Paco Lopez got him going again, and by the head of the lane this Vesgo Racing Stable homebred was hunkered down and not at all deterred by the rambunctious jostling of a furious three-way stretch battle. He won the bob at the finish by a nose, and the win represented a 14-point Beyer jump from 79 to 93. Realistically, this year's Derby projects to require a triple-digit Beyer to win, meaning Lord Miles must deliver another lifetime best against the toughest competition and over the longest distance of his career.

15) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits)
Derma Sotogake wired the G2 UAE Derby. But that doesn't necessarily mean this ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL yearling will be committed to seeking the lead in the Derby. “We didn't exactly plan to go straight to the lead but he broke well,” said trainer Hidetaka Otonashi. Added jockey Christophe Lemaire, “He can break a little slowly [but he] travelled nicely on the lead and he relaxed for me down the backstretch. He was still moving smoothly for me as we came into the home stretch and once I pressed the button he was very impressive and I could enjoy the finish on him.” The first four horses across the finish barely changed positions for the bulk of that race, although Derma Sotogake cracked them all while still in hand before widening his margin under light encouragement.

16) Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg})
This $25,000 KEESEP colt whose dam, Eblouissante, is a half-sister to Hall-of-Famer Zenyatta is listed as “possible” by Keeneland for the GIII Lexington S. on Saturday. Confidence Game does not need qualifying points to attain a Derby berth, so the 1 1/16-miles prep would serve as a true tune-up effort. Otherwise he'd be heading to Louisville off a 10-week gap since his 94-Beyer win in the Rebel S., a wide-and-driving score that was aided by a pace meltdown.

17) Rocket Can (Into Mischief)
This Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) safely qualifies with 60 points and is already stabled at Churchill, but his Derby status hasn't been solidified. He was a punchless fourth as the beaten fave in the Arkansas Derby, after which trainer Bill Mott said Rocket Can “gives you the feeling there's a little more there, but he's just not quite giving it all to you yet.” This colt proved late at age two and early into his sophomore season that he can capably stalk to stay within striking distance of leaders, and he doesn't shy from stretch fights. After winning the GIII Holy Bull S. back on Feb. 4, Rocket Can was a best-of-the-rest second behind divisional champ Forte. But he still hasn't made the convincing leap in Beyers, regressing from a 91 in the GII Fountain of Youth S. to an 86 at Oaklawn.

18) Sun Thunder (Into Mischief)
This late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) has a second, two fourths, and a fifth in graded stakes this year, and his 54 qualifying points are enough for a Derby berth. But trainer Ken McPeek was undecided on his starting status as of Sunday, the day after Sun Thunder ran 6 ½ lengths off the winner in the Blue Grass S. Sun Thunder still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks, but his Dec. 31 Oaklawn score was a capable effort despite minor trip trouble. His company lines aren't soft either; he caught some peaking horses earlier in the winter and was up against the grain of a speed-rewarding track on Louisiana Derby day.

19) Jace's Road (Quality Road)
'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road barely makes the cut as one of three horses currently tied with 45 qualifying points. He enjoys a $25,850 advantage in non-restricted stakes earnings, which is the tiebreaker. A $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, he faded to third in the late stages of the Louisiana Derby after pressing (but never truly threatening) all-the-way winner Kingsbarns. He took moderate pressure without any quit when wiring the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, but has been winless in two starts since.

20) Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong)
The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) accepted an invitation to Churchill for earning 40 points in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series when he won the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26. At age three, this ¥70,000,000 JRHJUL yearling was fifth in the G3 Saudi Derby. He then improved to third in the UAE Derby, but he was still beaten 10 lengths by winner Derma Sotogake after stalking that pacemaker until the home straight. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi is best known stateside for his two winners in the 2021 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar: Marche Lorraine (Jpn) at 49-1 in the GI Distaff and Loves Only You (Jpn) at 4-1 in the GI Filly and Mare Turf.

The post TDN Derby Top 20: Upheaval in the Ranks appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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