Midnight Bourbon | Horse Racing Free Tips

Senor Buscador Takes His Show On The Road In Saturday’s Risen Star

It's 712 miles from Remington Park in Oklahoma City to Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots in New Orleans. Trainer Todd Fincher always wanted to make the trip to the historic local oval, but he never had the right horse for the journey. He does now. Fincher rolls into town with the undefeated Senor Buscador, who rates as an exciting newcomer in a sterling renewal of Saturday's $400,000 Risen Star (G2), presented by Lamarque Ford-Lincoln.

Run at 1 1/8 miles, the Risen Star is the 13th and final race on a six-stakes card billed as Louisiana Derby Preview Day. It is by far the deepest and most competitive Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) prep to date and will offer a total of 85 Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers (50-20-10-5). The $300,000 Rachel Alexandra (G2) presented by Fasig-Tipton, at 1 1/16 miles, will be offered for 3-year-old fillies, with the same 85 qualifying points up for grabs for the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1). In addition, four stakes for older horses will also be presented on the card – the $200,000 (G3) Mineshaft at 1 1/16 miles, the $150,000 Fair Grounds (G3) at 1 1/8 miles on turf, the $100,000 Colonel Power Stakes at 5½ furlongs on turf, and the $100,000 Albert M. Stall Memorial Stakes for fillies and mares at 1 1/16 miles on turf.

Joe Peacock Jr.'s homebred Senor Buscador (post 5 at 6-1 on Mike Diliberto's morning line with Luis Quinonez to ride) went from an unraced maiden in early November to a wise guy Kentucky Derby contender a little more than six weeks later, as he parlayed a 5 ½-furlong maiden win at Remington Nov. 6 into a dominant 5 ¾-length win in the Springboard Mile there Dec. 18. With Senor Buscador an unknown no more, Fincher had plans to make. Fair Grounds, with a long stretch and the Risen Star, which is followed by the March 20 TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) at 1 3/16 miles, made perfect sense. Saturday can't come soon enough.

“I've never been there, it's a big race, there's Kentucky Derby points on the line and I'm really looking forward to it,” Fincher said. “I think the distance is absolutely in his favor. My wish list would be two preps and hopefully qualify for the Kentucky Derby.”

Senor Buscador, a son of Mineshaft, has lagged in last in both starts before unleashing a devastating stretch run to win going away, though it was the two-turn Springboard Mile that really got people talking. Last on the backstretch in the field of 10, he delivered an extended wide run, circled the field, and drew off with ease by 5 ¾ lengths. And while he's been a turtle early in his races and a hare late, Fincher says it's not necessarily by design.

“He has more speed than you've seen but he just does his own thing,” Fincher said. “We didn't teach him to do that. We taught him to come from behind but not walk out of the gate and do a slow roll before he does anything. He's so nerve-racking to watch him run. They get so far back and you think 'What the heck.' But he makes it work.”

Fincher and the Peacock family have had a long relationship and he's trained several of Senor Buscador's siblings, including his half-brother Runaway Ghost, who won the Sunland Derby (G3) in 2018 but was forced to miss the Kentucky Derby that year with an injury. Fincher knew his little brother had a pedigree to be a runner, but also knew you can't count on anything in this game.

“We hoped he would develop into this kind of horse but you get let down too many times,” Fincher said. “We knew he could run quite a bit but we didn't have any idea he could be this level, but we hoped. But you just never know until you see it on the track. There are no similarities (among his siblings), they are all different. The Peacocks have been great to me and I've been very fortunate to have them in my corner and we're really looking forward to seeing what Senor Buscador can do.”

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon (post 6 at 6-1 with Joe Talamo) led every step of the way in the local Jan. 16 Lecomte (G3), but has shown plenty of versatility in his career as well. The son of Tiznow took advantage of an alert beginning from his rail draw and had plenty left in reserve while winning his first start of the year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Midnight Bourbon showed promise at 2, hitting the board twice in graded stakes but looked like a more polished product in his 3-year-old debut. With the distance of the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby a bit longer than the typical mid-winter Derby prep, Asmussen expects Midnight Bourbon to only get better.

“I think the 1 1/8 miles is right in his wheelhouse and we're excited about running him in this series because of the distance of these preps,” Asmussen said. “He's an efficient mover with a high cruising speed and horses like that can be very effective at the Fair Grounds. We were very pleased with how he started off the year, and this is the next step.”

Godolphin's homebred Proxy (post 2 at 8-1 with John Velazquez), a 3-year-old son of Tapit, has progressed nicely in New Orleans this winter for trainer Mike Stidham, as he led gate-to-wire over maidens then did the same against allowance foes in December, before stepping up and running a strong second in the Lecomte. For Stidham, seeing Proxy settle a bit off the pace in the Lecomte and battle on late against much tougher horses was a sign he's moving in the right direction, though he also feels there's still more room for improvement.

“He's still a work in progress but I like having a 3-year-old that I think has something left that we haven't seen yet,” Stidham said. “He's still figuring it out, both mentally and physically. But in his works, and in his races, he seems to be getting a little better, and I think that's where he is right now. Now that we're getting into these longer races, it starts to separate them a little bit, and I think that's really going to help my horse, and I'm not sure that's the case for everybody.”

Juddmonte Farms' homebred Mandaloun (post 11 at 9-2 with Florent Geroux) was a somewhat disappointing third at odds-on in the Lecomte for trainer Brad Cox after chasing the pace while wide throughout. The son of Into Mischief entered that race 2-for-2 off sprint wins in Kentucky but didn't kick on quite enough through the lane behind Midnight Bourbon. Cox has opted to add blinkers to Mandaloun for the Risen Star. He is looking for a more focused performance, and has been extremely pleased by his two works with them.

“I feel like the works with blinkers have shown some progression and he can take that next step forward with them and have more focus late,” Cox said. “He was right there in the Lecomte and he was wide. The two horses that finished in front of us had a little more seasoning and I think he got a lot out of that race.”

Cypress Creek Equine, Arnold Bennewith, and Spendthrift Farm's Keepmeinmind (post 12 at 3-1 with David Cohen) would bring plenty of class should he make the trip from Oaklawn Park for trainer Robertino Diodoro. The deep closing son of Laoban was third to 2-year-old champion Essential Quality in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland in November then won Churchill's November 28 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) to end his campaign. Keepmeinmind is also entered to run in the Feb. 15 Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn, but with a few potential pitfalls, Diodoro wants to have options.

“We just wanted to cover our bases,” Diodoro said. “We are concerned with the weather in Arkansas, and we're also concerned with a short field as well. The rumor is it could be a five or six-horse field. That's good for a speed horse, but with his (Keepmeinmind's come from behind) running style, I'm not doing backflips over that, to be honest. We're going to make a decision by Wednesday.”

Trainer Tom Amoss has an uncoupled pair of Union Rags colts in Greg Tramontin, Joel Politi, Brittlyn Stable, and Asaro Enterprises' Carillo (post 4 at 15-1 with James Graham) and Nice Guys Stables, Manganaro Bloodstock, and Steve Hornstock's Defeater (post 9 at 12-1 with Dean Saenz), and both will look to bridge the gap from a one-turn debut win to the grade 2 ranks. The former won going a one-turn mile at Aqueduct Jan. 8 for trainer Chad Brown and was subsequently purchased Jan. 14 for $875,000 out of a dispersal sale from the Estate of the late Paul Pompa, while the latter pulled clear late going 6 furlongs locally Jan. 2 and defeated a strong field that included third-place finisher Gershwin, who impressed breaking his maiden here Feb. 6. Carillo hasn't been with Amoss long but shows two local works, which give his trainer reason for optimism.

“He trains like he ran and shows a great deal of stamina in the mornings and in his workouts,” Amoss said. “He shows a very good turn of foot at the end. The horse is pretty straight forward since I've gotten him. He needs to show he can make the transition from one to two turns, but he's not the only horse like that at this time of year. All things point to that being something he's going to successfully do, but he hasn't done it at this point.”

Completing the Risen Star field from the rail out: trainer Dallas Stewart Racing Stable's and WinStar Farm's homebred Starrininmydreams (post 1 at 12-1 with Brian Hernandez Jr.), undefeated in a pair of Churchill starts at 2 and making his stakes and 3-year-old debut; Marylou Whitney Stables' homebred Beep Beep (post 3 at 20-1 with Miguel Mena), fourth in a strong local optional-claimer January 16 for trainer Norm Casse; Barrett Bernard, Tagg Team Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds' O Besos (post 7 at 12-1 with Marcelino Pedroza), an easy stretch running winner of a pair of sprints at the meet for trainer Greg Foley; Kevin Porter's Sermononthemount (post 8 at 50-1 with Declan Carroll), a 7-furlong allowance winner at Delta Downs January 21 for trainer Tim Dixon; Calumet Farm's homebred Santa Cruiser (post 10 at 15-1 with Adam Beschizza), fourth after a slow break in the Lecomte for trainer Keith Desormeaux; and Wayne T. Davis' Rightandjust (post 13 at 15-1 with Mitchell Murrill), who wired Beep Beep and eight others in the optional-claimer off the claim for trainer Shane Wilson.

The post Senor Buscador Takes His Show On The Road In Saturday’s Risen Star appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Taking Stock: Midnight Bourbon’s American Lines

Throughout time, American bloodstock has been continually infused with new blood from other countries, just as a long history of immigration has made this country a melting pot of cultures. But these things come at some cost, don't they? What of the more or less original American sire and dam lines that have been subverted by the newer arrivals? Who's looking out for their interests as they get forgotten and cast aside?

The Tiznow colt Midnight Bourbon, who is on the Gl Kentucky Derby trail after winning the Glll Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds two weeks ago, represents patriotic pushback in a way. He was bred by Barbara Banke's high-profile Stonestreet with an assist from Kenny Troutt's high-flying stud farm WinStar, where recently retired Tiznow stood, and both deserve credit. Tiznow traces in tail-male to Man o' War, that great and iconic American symbol of grandeur, and the dams in Midnight Bourbon's tail-female line of descent could be members of the group Daughters of the American Revolution. Stonestreet and WinStar have combined to put America first in Midnight Bourbon, and if he were to win the Derby, or any Grade l race for that matter, earning a prominent chance at stud, there'll be a lot of grateful hallelujahs from nativists for making an American pedigree great again.

The Man o' War line has been on the fringes for decades, but in recent times Tiznow, the sire of 82 black-type winners, was its primary face and force, and he was a horse who also inspired patriotism on the track. Remember Tom Durkin's indelible “Tiznow wins it for America!” call after the son of Cee's Tizzy notched his second Gl Breeders' Cup Classic by a nose from European invader Sakhee after 9/11? And some of you may recall that Relaunch (In Reality), the sire of Cee's Tizzy, was notably advertised during his stud career as “The Great American Racehorse Sire,” and for good reason. This uninterrupted American-bred line from Tiznow back reads: Cee's Tizzy (1987)—Relaunch (1976)—In Reality (1964)—Intentionally (1956)—Intent (1948)—War Relic (1938)—Man o' War (1917)—Fair Play (1905)—Hastings (1893). The first imported stallion in this line was Australian (GB) (1858), the grandsire of Hastings.

Unfortunately, several well-performed sons of Tiznow haven't been able to carry his name forward yet, and it's fair to say the Man o' War line is on the precipice of extinction unless a savior arrives. WinStar does have young sire Tourist, a son of Tiznow with first-crop 3-year-olds at the races, but there aren't many others around, which is one reason why Midnight Bourbon's future success will be celebrated.

This is also an heirloom sire line as it's the only one alive in America that tracks to the Godolphin Arabian, one of the three founding sires of the Thoroughbred along with the Byerley Turk and the Darley Arabian–to whom most Thoroughbreds now trace. The American line of Plaudit/Himyar that was briefly revived by Holy Bull is also an heirloom variety that's barely surviving, but it does go directly to the all-conquering Darley Arabian.

The accompanying chart of the sire lines of the last 100 winners of the Kentucky Derby puts the state of affairs of the Man o' War line and the Godolphin Arabian in bas relief. War Admiral was the last from this line to win the Classic, in 1937, and before him it was Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.

This chart also illustrates the chain migration of sire lines from foreign lands. Take the French import Sir Gallahad lll (Fr), who was later followed by his brother Bull Dog (Fr), the sire of Bull Lea. These brothers had outstanding success at stud, mirrored in the Derby results, and later their sire Teddy (Fr) was imported as an older stallion after they'd established themselves. Teddy's own success was limited here in old age, but he did get Case Ace after his arrival, and Case Ace's daughter Raise You pivotally produced Raise a Native–the main source of Sickle (GB)/Phalaris (GB).

The virulent success of the Phalaris line through sons Sickle and Pharos (GB), and to a lesser extent Sickle's brother Pharamond (GB), particularly stands out. This line accounts for 45 of the last 50 winners of the Derby (42 for Sickle and Pharos without Pharamond), and the commercial popularity of some of its members has created reactionary backlash in the form of limits to books at 140 mares and concerns of too many of the same names in the population. There's certainly some nostalgia for the good old days at play in these sentiments.

The Tail-Female Line

There's some of that same nostalgia in reflecting on Midnight Bourbon's tail-female line, which is absent of foreign interlopers. The entirely American-bred dams in this sequence go back to the mid-1700s in a line of descent that ends at a foundation mare called Janus Mare Number 1 (American Foundation Mares A1 family), a daughter of the imported Godolphin Arabian grandson Janus. This makes Midnight Bourbon even more unique, tracing to the Godolphin Arabian on his top and bottom lines.

The family of Janus Mare Number 1 through the years has had bursts of success, producing Regret, the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby, as well as other Derby winners Riley, Azra, Ben Brush, and Exterminator, but the most recent member to win the Classic was Gato Del Sol in 1982, and he's the only one from the family to do it in the last 100 years.

Essentially, this family in recent times had been living a fairly blue-collar existence, but occasional successes now and then–Shancelot, Silver Max, and Kiss a Native, to name three notable recent representatives–suggested that it could get upwardly mobile if given a chance. Barbara Banke gave it opportunity, and she's been rewarded.

Banke purchased Midnight Bourbon's unraced dam Catch the Moon (Malibu Moon) for $240,000 at Keeneland November in 2015 carrying a foal by Shanghai Bobby. The mare made that money mostly because her first foal Cocked and Loaded (Colonel John) was two at the time of sale and had won the Glll Iroquois S. As a son of the Tiznow stallion Colonel John–a WinStar homebred Grade l winner who stood at WinStar before going to Korea–Cocked and Loaded provided Banke and her team with the blueprint for the mating that produced Midnight Bourbon in 2018, after Catch the Moon was barren to Curlin in 2017.

Catch the Moon has become a remarkable producer since. Her second foal Girvin (Tale of Ekati) won the Gl Haskell Invitational S. in 2017, and her third, the Stonestreet-bred Pirate's Punch (Shanghai Bobby), was Grade lll-placed in 2019 before Midnight Bourbon sold for $525,000 at Keeneland September that year. Pirate's Punch has subsequently become a Grade lll winner, and with Midnight Bourbon's Lecomte win, Catch the Moon has now accomplished the rare feat of producing four graded winners from her first four living foals, two of them from the Man o' War line via Tiznow.

Until Tiznow, Catch the Moon had made her mark with two stallions that were subsequently exported (Colonel John and Shanghai Bobby) and one that now stands for $5,000 (Tale of Ekati). She once sold for only $30,000 carrying Cocked and Loaded but is now a bona fide commercial mare, fully part of the establishment with foals on the ground or in the pipeline by Curlin and Quality Road.

She's the American dream in more ways than one.

Postscript

Catch the Moon's stakes-winning dam Catch My Fancy (Yes It's True) is a product of close 3×2 inbreeding to the mare Monique Rene (Prince of Ascot)–Midnight Bourbon's fourth dam. Yes It's True's dam Clever Monique was a daughter of Monique Rene, a tough and popular Louisiana-bred stakes winner of 29 races, and Catch My Fancy's dam Walk Away Rene was also a daughter of Monique Rene. This type of inbreeding to females is frequently referred to as the RF or Rasmussen Factor, named after my great friend, pedigree authority and longtime DRF columnist Leon Rasmussen.

Louisiana oilman John Franks was the official breeder of Catch My Fancy, but it was his advisor Dan Kenny who probably planned her mating. Dan was a keen student of pedigrees, and he would frequently discuss the RF with me whenever I was in Lexington in the 1990s, knowing of my friendship with Leon. Although I can't verify this with certainty because Dan died a couple of years ago, I'm about 99% sure that this mating has his fingerprints all over it.

Catch My Fancy, by the way, produced the listed winner and Grade lll-placed Dubini (Gio Ponti) in 2013, one year before her daughter produced Girvin. The sires of both are by Tale of the Cat, a son of Storm Cat. Catch My Fancy's only other black-type winner is What a Catch (Justin Phillip), who's by a Storm Cat-line sire.

Similarly, Midnight Bourbon's half-brother Pirate's Punch and Shancelot (from a three-quarter sister to Yes It's True) are by Shanghai Bobby, also a Storm Cat-line horse.

Yes It's True (Is It True) was a top-class sprinter and an outstanding physical specimen who was officially bred by George Waggoner, but it was Johnny T.L. Jones Jr. of Walmac who'd sold Clever Monique carrying Yes It's True to Waggoner for $16,000 at Keeneland November 1995.

At the time, Waggoner was being advised by pedigree consultant Les Brinsfield, who was crazy about Clever Monique's pedigree and recommended her purchase. Brinsfield made it a habit to study female families in depth, had great knowledge of their histories, and certainly would have been enamored by an American family that traced to Janus Mare Number 1. He deduced right away that this family could benefit from the American blood of Man o' War.

Presaging the matings that produced Midnight Bourbon and Cocked and Loaded, Waggoner and Brinsfield bred Clever Monique in consecutive years to Skywalker, a son of Relaunch, but neither mating produced a stakes horse. In 1998, Waggoner bred the mare back to Yes It's True's sire, and later that year he benefited from this when 2-year-old Yes It's True–who he'd sold for $220,000 as a yearling and was later pinhooked at two for $800,000–twice won Grade lll races and was second in the Gl Futurity S. Yes It's True would go on to become a Grade l winner the next year.

Around this time, pedigree consultant Alan Porter was now advising Waggoner, who wanted to cash out on the mare, and sometime in late 1998 or early 1999 Porter and I privately sold the in-foal Clever Monique to Becky Thomas, who became the breeder of Yes It's True's stakes-winning sister Honest Deceiver. This branch of Monique Rene hadn't done much since and had fallen on hard times until last year when the obscurely sired Hollywood Hills (Hoorayforhollywood), whose second dam is Honest Deceiver, won a Cal-bred black-type race at Del Mar and then placed second in the Glll Torrey Pines S. at the same track for owner-breeder George Krikorian.

Krikorian bred, raced, and stands the sire Hoorayforhollywood, who wasn't a stakes winner but happens to be a son of Storm Cat, and this may be yet another indication that an alliance for this family with the Storm Cat line–a member of Pharos/Phalaris–may ultimately be the avenue for its survival as options for using Man o' War-line horses diminish.

Sometimes you have to accept the inevitable.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

The post Taking Stock: Midnight Bourbon’s American Lines appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 For Jan. 26

Two new shooters debut on the Top 12 this week and there was a large leap forward from the previously ranked No. 10 contender all the way up to the No. 2 spot. Four qualifying races on the Road to the GI Kentucky Derby points series are on the docket for the next two weekends.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality) O/B-Godolphin (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144. Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13 or GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality will likely add an Eclipse Award to his résumé on Thursday as this undefeated colt preps for either the GII Risen Star S. Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds or the GIII Southwest S. Feb. 15 at Oaklawn. Remaining where he is stabled at Fair Grounds means this Godolphin homebred by Tapit doesn't have to ship while competing for five times more Derby qualifying points (50-20-10-5) than what are up for grabs at Oaklawn (10-4-2-1). But the Risen Star is a more arduous nine furlongs as opposed to the Southwest's 1 1/16 miles. Beyond the choice for Essential Quality's 2021 debut, trainer Brad Cox said earlier this month that the GII Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles would be “in play” Mar. 20. At age two, this colt looked comfortable settling into authoritative stalk mode for all three of his victories. But in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he did benefit immensely from a speed setup–the Juvenile's fastest opening quarter mile since 2014 and its fastest half-mile split since 2003. Essential Quality must overcome the historical burden of only two Juvenile winners in 36 years (Nyquist and Street Sense) parlaying a Breeders' Cup win into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

2) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 23.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 10.

I normally wouldn't get too excited about a recent maiden-breaker who looked dominant on paper wiring an ungraded stakes field. In fact, well-bet, wire-to-wire horses have won each of the previous three editions of the Smarty Jones S., but none made an impact as Derby contenders. Caddo River resonates differently, though. This 'TDN Rising Star's 10 1/4-length crushing of the competition on opening day at Oaklawn (92 Beyer Speed Figure) represents the third race in a row this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable set or forced the issue while looking relaxed, torqueing out effectively and leaving the impression there was untapped power in reserve. Caddo River broke fluidly, then was subtly cued to quicken from the outermost seven post to make sure he cleared the field and put a length or two of cushion between him and a hard-to-handle 57-1 shot. He loped down the backstretch, then was nudged for more entering the far turn (even though his lead was not in danger). He cruised into a higher gear under light coaxing and was hand-ridden for a solo drive to the wire. Caddo River's emphatic double-digit winning margin came over a short-stretch configuration, meaning he didn't have an extra sixteenth of straightaway late in the race to pad that margin. Owned, bred (and named after) Arkansas connections, Caddo River almost certainly will remain on the Oaklawn prep path to Louisville.

3) LIKEABLE (c, Frosted–Dashing Debby, by Medaglia d'Oro)
O-Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable & Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-0, $49,050.
Last Start: 13th GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: Mdn win, Belmont, Sept. 19
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Likeable celebrates his foaling-date birthday Jan. 26 and appears ready to hit the entries now more than a month into his winter training at Palm Beach Downs. This $350,000 KEESEP Frosted colt's race progression so far includes a very useful debut at Saratoga when second despite trip woes; a freewheeling one-turn mile MSW at Belmont that he wired by 8 1/2 lengths, and what amounts to a thrown-to-the-wolves 13th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in which Likeable pulled, got hooked four wide into the first turn, then contributed to an unsustainably torrid pace that cooked him by the time the field hit the far turn. He's the type of horse who projects to run well at Gulfstream, either in a one-turn mile or at 1 1/16 miles around two, because both configurations favor outright speed.

4) PRIME FACTOR (c, Quality Road–Haylie Brae, by Bernardini)
O-CHC Inc. & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Two Hearts Farm LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $900,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $24,000.
Last Start: Mdn win, Gulfstream, Dec. 12
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Prime Factor closed at 21-1 odds in last weekend's Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. It's likely that his prep path toward the Derby will look similar to that of his sire, Quality Road, who used victories in both the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. and the GI Florida Derby to propel him toward Kentucky Derby favoritism before quarter cracks derailed Quality Road's chances of starting in the Triple Crown. I wrote in the last installment of the Top 12 how this $900,000 KEESEP colt's MSW romp Dec. 12 at Gulfstream was the most authoritative maiden win among the Derby candidates, but Saturday's wowza performance by Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro) has given Prime Factor a run for the money for that distinction (read more below at No. 7). Still, let's not allow any form of recency bias to erase how convincingly this Todd Pletcher trainee widened under wraps to blast home by 8 3/4 lengths in an 85 Beyer effort that clocked 0.08 seconds faster than the GIII Sugar Swirl S. for established older distaffers on the same card.

5) JACKIE'S WARRIOR (c, Maclean's Music–Unicorn Girl, by A. P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (Ky). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $95,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 12.

Although I'm sure the connections of Jackie's Warrior would have much rather finished first in the Juvenile to cap what would have been a five-for-five season, the fact that this $95,000 KEESEP Maclean's Music colt was only 3 1/4 lengths behind Essential Quality in the most important race of the year for 2-year-olds now means “Jackie” doesn't have to prep for his 2021 debut under a figurative microscope. The pressure of being an undefeated champ comes with the difficult task of being a target for the rest of the division, and for some developing colts, that's too much. Right now, Jackie is projected to start in the Southwest S., raising the tantalizing possibility of an early-season rematch with Essential Quality (who has not committed either way). Speculating which colt might have the upper hand is a fun mental exercise three weeks out from that race. Right now, I'd give the head-to-head edge to Jackie, based on his dominant ability to control the pace. But that assessment might not hold for longer races deeper into the spring, when stamina questions are likely to swirl.

6) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: Possible for GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 10.

This $525,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay is on a similar prep-race trajectory as trainer Bob Baffert's 2020 Derby winner Authentic, who used the GIII Sham S. and GII San Felipe S. as his early-season springboard until the Derby got rescheduled for September. Baffert has noted similarities between the two colts, who, beyond sharing a sire, are hallmarked by a speed-centric, headstrong, aggressive way of going. 'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good won the Jan. 2 Sham in wire-to-wire fashion, racking up an eye-catching 101 Beyer in the process (Authentic earned a 90 Beyer for his Sham). But, like Authentic in January last year, Life Is Good still comes across as more of a raw-talent work in progress, and it's difficult to gauge just how sharp a crew Life Is Good roughed up in that strung-out five-horse stakes. Baffert has now won seven editions of the Sham, but Authentic was the only one of his six Derby champs to have won that prep race. In fact, Baffert's only other Sham winner to even run in the Derby was Bob and John (17th in 2006).

7) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st GP maiden, Jan. 23
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby points: 0.

The seven-furlong MSW on the Pegasus undercard at Gulfstream Saturday had the look of a “loaded” race as soon as the overnight was drawn, and the only real surprise was that one of the talented colts would manage to win it by 8 1/2 geared-down lengths. Prevalence broke inward and brushed with a rival, then righted himself to prowl through the pack and secure the rail in a spirited five-way fight for the lead. One by one his rivals peeled away, and at the entrance to the turn Prevalence had wrested a half-length lead under pressure. He opened up incrementally while still hand-ridden, and by the head of the lane was as good as gone while some pretty nice colts behind him were under full-out drives. Left in his wake were the runner-up Stage Raider (Pioneerof the Nile), a half-brother to 2018 Triple Crown champ Justify, and third-place Ghazaaly (Curlin), a $1.05-million KEESEP buy. The 89-Beyer performance earned Prevalence 'TDN Rising Star' status while also giving Godolphin no fewer than three homebreds (for three different trainers) in the current Top 12.

8) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-2, $221,420.
Last Start: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: Aiming for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Accomplishments: 3rd GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby points: 16.

Midnight Bourbon, who hit his third birthdate Jan. 25, made a positive impression with a wire-to-wire win in the GIII Lecomte S. The question he'll need to answer is how much he relied on an ideal pace scenario to propel him to that victory. The Lecomte drew flush with early speed, but after three scratches and a stutter-step start by the remaining main pace threat in the race, this $525,000 KEESEP colt was handed the lead from post one, and was allowed to dictate a moderate enough tempo (:24.68 and :48.99) that left him with plenty of energy to flick away two far-turn bids from the Nos. 9 and 11 contenders on this list. But Midnight Bourbon did finish up professionally while being kept to task, and his 91 Beyer for the effort is respectable for a 3-year-old who hadn't raced since Oct. 10. Seeing two-time GI Breeders' Cup Classic champ Tiznow anchor the top line in this colt's pedigree is heartening from a stamina standpoint, and trainer Steve Asmussen confirmed he would be pointed toward the GII Risen Star S. and GII Louisiana Derby.

9) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $107,700.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 4.

Proxy got first run at Midnight Bourbon in the Lecomte S., and although this Tapit homebred for Godolphin couldn't seal the deal to reel in that solo pacemaker, he did glean a useful lesson in how to claw back his position when headed in the stretch by 4-5 favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun as they battled for second. Although the soft internal splits worked to the advantage of Midnight Bourbon, Proxy was only a length behind at the wire, and the 1:44.41 final time for 1 1/16 miles was only 0.14 seconds shy of the same-distance clocking set by older horses in the GIII Louisiana S. earlier on the card. The Lecomte also marked Proxy's return to Lasix-free racing (he's now won twice on it and finished second twice without it), which is a must this year for sophomores competing on the Lasix-free Triple Crown trail. “The way he dug in and held off the favorite in the end, and was getting to the winner, I couldn't have been happier,” said trainer Michael Stidham. “I think the farther the better.”

10) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (Ky). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 wnlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., Kee, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Highly Motivated is now two half-mile breezes into his Palm Meadows training for a 2021 debut, meaning the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (FOY) could be in play. Thus far he's a 2-for-3 sprint specialist, but this $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt's stalking 6 1/2-furlong Nyquist S. score was a track-record-setting key race that kicked off the Breeders' Cup undercard, having produced three next-out winners (in the Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds, a Churchill open allowance, and a Louisiana-bred stakes at Fair Grounds). Jockey Javier Castellano, who has been out since after the Breeders' Cup to heal from scheduled hip surgery, made it a point earlier this winter to say he'd like to be back in time for the FOY, which is key for this colt, because he was Highly Motivated's rider every time out last season.

11) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $91,252.
Last Start: 3rd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 2.

'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun was tactically disadvantaged by being three wide on both turns behind a tepid pace in the Lecomte S., and this Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief also lost the race within the race by letting Proxy come back to beat him for second after Mandaloun looked him in the eye but couldn't clear him. Still, in the larger picture, one subpar effort in January shouldn't derail this colt from Derby aspirations. He bulled through heavy traffic to break his maiden and then convincingly won an allowance, both at Churchill, and his 89 Beyer in the Lecomte still represents an upward arc in Mandaloun's numbers progression. “I think we are going to add blinkers,” Cox said the day after the Lecomte. “I talked it over with the Juddmonte team and Florent [jockey Geroux]. We kind of thought that ever since his first race.”

12) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban–Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (Ky). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity,
3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Aiming for the GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 18.

Although Keepmeinmind didn't break his maiden until he won the Nov. 29 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., jockey David Cohen said it was the deep closer's first career start Sept. 2 that stamped him as a Classic-caliber colt. “When we made that first start at a mile, which is very hard the first time out, we came out of the [second-outermost post], and he made it down to the rail, squeezed through a tight spot, had a tough time for a first start. But he showed a lot of heart,” Cohen told the Northwest Arkansas Democrat Gazette last week. As an off-the-pace specialist, the Laoban colt might be against the grain of both the 1 1/16 miles distance and the speed-rewarding nature of the Oaklawn surface in the Southwest S. But so long as Keepmeinmind continues to accumulate qualifying points, the more sneaky-good his Derby chances look. This probably isn't the type of colt who will get to the first Saturday in May by racking up multiple wins in prep races. But as a maternal grandson of Victory Gallop, he'd be tough to leave out of Derby exotics with a running style that suggests he's capable of passing multiple horses in the stretch of a 20-horse race over 10 furlongs.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Bezos (Empire Maker): Baffert trainee closed at 26-1 in Pool 2 of the Derby Future Wager on Sunday-a remarkable price because this $190,000 KEENOV and $400,000 KEESEP colt has yet to start in a race.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow): Half to 2019 sprint champ Mitole makes 2021 debut in Saturday's GIII Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita. This two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) was a 94-1 second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

King Fury (Curlin): This $950,000 FTSAUG colt was previously ranked at No. 12 on this list, but workout inactivity so far this year has caused him to be leapfrogged by others who are a bit farther along the Derby trail.

Nova Rags (Union Rags): Favored Bill Mott-trained colt looped group five-sixteenths out and was kept to task despite no challengers late in 75-Beyer Pasco S. tally at Tampa Jan. 16.

Santa Cruiser (Dialed In): Figured as main pace threat in Lecomte off tenacious MSW mile win but got shuffled to last at break and really never ran his race. Closed well enough from far back to manage a better-than-looks fourth.

Speaker's Corner (Street Sense): Formerly rated at No. 7, this Godolphin homebred trained by Mott owns a key-race MSW win at Belmont back on Oct. 11, but workout inactivity this year has triggered relegation out of the Top 12.

The Great One (Nyquist): Runner-up as a maiden in the Dec. 19 GII Los Alamitos Futurity returned on Saturday to win a Santa Anita MSW by 14 1/2 lengths in a four-horse field. Trainer Doug O'Neill said the San Felipe S. is the next logical spot.

The post The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 For Jan. 26 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Bloodlines Presented By Diamond B Farm’s Rowayton: Midnight Bourbon Begins The Last Hurrahs At Stud For Tiznow

From one of the last crops by the now-pensioned Tiznow (by Cee's Tizzy), Midnight Bourbon became his sire's 81st stakes winner with a victory in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans on Jan. 16.

Last year, Midnight Bourbon had shown high-class form. The bay had finished second to Sittin On Go (Brody's Cause) in the G3 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Sept. 5 and had been third to Jackie's Warrior and Reinvestment Risk in the G1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park on Oct. 10 in the last start at two for Midnight Bourbon.

The son of Tiznow made his 3-year-old debut in the Lecomte, rating kindly on the lead and holding the closers at bay to finish the 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.41. The Lecomte will put Midnight Bourbon on some lists for the classics, and the handsome bay is expected to race next in the G2 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 13.

A classic victory would make Midnight Bourbon only the second son of Tiznow to win a classic; Da' Tara won the 2008 Belmont Stakes. The same year, Colonel John won the G1 Santa Anita Derby and Travers, then in between had finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby. That was Tiznow's best year with a classic crop of racers.

With the stallion now pensioned from breeding, there won't be too many opportunities for more classic performers. Midnight Bourbon comes from Tiznow's fourth-last crop, and the stallion has 106 2-year-olds, foals of 2019.

For the foals that are yearlings of 2021, the aged stallion bred 113 mares, with 85 reported in foal. Those pregnancies resulted in 63 live foals (56 percent live foals to mares bred). In his last breeding season, Tiznow covered 38 mares in 2020.

As a classic prospect, Midnight Bourbon is a very good-looking and well-proportioned colt with good muscle and speed for going a mile or more. Bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet and consigned to the Keeneland September yearling sale by Warrendale, Midnight Bourbon sold to Winchell Thoroughbreds for $525,000, making the second-highest price for a Tiznow yearling in 2019.

Midnight Bourbon is the fourth named foal of his dam, the Malibu Moon mare Catch the Moon, and he is the mare's fourth graded stakes winner. Catch the Moon's first foal and stakes winner was Cocked and Loaded, one of the best racers by the Tiznow stallion Colonel John. At two, Cocked and Loaded won a pair of stakes, including the G3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill.

The mare's second foal was the best racer by Grade 1 winner Tale of Ekati, Girvin. A striking dark bay, Girvin won a pair of Grade 2 stakes, the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby in the first half of his 3-year-old season, then added the G1 Haskell during the summer of his 3-year-old season in 2017. After earning more than $1.6 million, Girvin stands at stud in Florida at Ocala Stud.

The third foal out of Catch the Moon was the gelding Pirate's Punch (Shanghai Bobby), who was one of the best racers by his sire. Pirate's Punch was three times placed at the Grade 3 level, then won the G3 Salvator Mile at Monmouth Park as a 4-year-old in 2020.

With high-class performers already on the page, Midnight Bourbon was a sales success, and he has added to the mare's succession of stakes performers. There must have been other mares who produced four stakes winners in succession, but the only other I've uncovered with about this level of quality is the great champion racemare Miesque (Nureyev), whose first four foals all won stakes. Her fourth, the Woodman mare Moon is Up, was only a listed winner, but Miesque's first and second foals – Kingmambo and East of the Moon – were both G1 winners.

Catch the Moon has a 2-year-old colt by Curlin who sold for $500,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September sale but is unnamed to date. The mare's yearling is yet another colt, this one by Quality Road.

Catch the Moon is the first foal out of stakes winner Catch My Fancy (Yes It's True), successful in the Barretts Debutante at Fairplex and the Fairfield Stakes at Solano. A $150,000 2-year-old in training, Catch My Fancy had plenty of speed, and she is the dam of stakes winners Dubini (Gio Ponti), winner of the 2019 Laurel Dash, and What a Catch (Justin Phillip), winner of the Rockville Centre Stakes.

There is plenty of speed in this family, and Catch the Moon is inbred 3×2 to Monique Rene (Prince of Ascot), a mare raced by John Franks. A winner of 29 races, including 15 stakes, Monique Rene was a legend in Louisiana racing. In addition to those mentioned above, the best racers to descend from her include Grade 1 winners Yes It's True (De Francis Memorial Dash) and Silver Max (Shadwell Turf Mile), as well as Kiss a Native, champion 3-year-old colt in Canada.

The post Bloodlines Presented By Diamond B Farm’s Rowayton: Midnight Bourbon Begins The Last Hurrahs At Stud For Tiznow appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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