Equibase Analysis: Run Classic Poised To Provide Big Upset In Louisiana Derby

This Saturday's Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby is the first “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system race to offer the winner enough points (100) to guarantee a start in the gate on the first Saturday in May. The winner's share of the $1 million isn't bad either, but in spite of those two incentives only eight horses were entered.

The two most accomplished runners, Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon, have traded wins on the run up to this race. Midnight Bourbon won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January but ended up third in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes four weeks later, that race won by Mandaloun.

Risen Star runner-up Proxy, who also finished second in the Lecomte, will attempt to turn the tables on his rivals. O Besos finished fourth and nearly six lengths behind third place finisher Midnight Bourbon in the Risen Star and may have his work cut out for him, as may both Rightandjust and Starrininmydreams, who finished sixth and ninth, respectively, in the race.

Hot Rod Charlie ships in from California off a big effort when beaten a neck and a nose for the win in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and certainly fits with the best in this field. Last but certainly not least, Run Classic steps into stakes competition off a maiden win over the track in his second career start.

It is still early in the season, so much so that horses which have only run a couple of times can win Kentucky Derby prep races like the Louisiana Derby. This was evidenced last weekend when Concert Tour won the Rebel Stakes in only the third start of his career and his first in a two-turn race. Run Classic has already run two turns so that is not a question and in that regard he is one step further along as compared to Concert Tour. Run Classic debuted in mid-January in a sprint and finished second of 10, earning a 94 Equibase Speed Figure in the process.

Stretched out to a mile and one-sixteenth for career start number two four weeks later, on the same day as the Risen Star, Run Classic stalked the pacesetter while third in the early stages, put in a quick burst to get to the front with an eighth of a mile to go, then coasted home to an easy three and one-quarter length win. Although he earned a 90 figure, I feel he could have run faster if need be.

Putting those figures in perspective, likely Louisiana Derby betting favorite Mandaloun earned a 97 figure winning the Risen Star. Being as Run Classic is more lightly raced he may have more improving to do, as compared to Mandaloun and others already proven competitive in similar races. Specifically, making his third career start and second in a route, Run Classic has a lot of potential to leap frog over the more logical contenders and post the upset to win. That is exactly what By My Standards did to post the upset win in this race in 2019 at odds of 22/1 when winning the race after breaking his maiden in a route over the track one race earlier. By My Standards was trained by Bret Calhoun, who trains Run Classic, and that is precisely why I'm choosing Run Classic to post the upset win in the Louisiana Derby.

Hot Rod Charlie entered the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November off a maiden win in a route. Then in the Juvenile and making his second consecutive start in a dirt route, Hot Rod Charlie finished second at odds of 94 to 1, earning a career-best 100 in the process. Returning for his 3-year-old campaign at the end of January, Hot Rod Charlie proved his Breeders' Cup effort to be no fluke as he closed from fourth after stumbling at the start, missing the win by inches in a three horse photo. The 97 figure earned can logically by improved upon in his second start off a layoff so Hot Rod Charlie deserves strong consideration as a contender to win this race.

Mandaloun won the first two races of his career, both sprints, with a 97 figure in the best of the pair. Stretched out to two-turns for the first time in the Lecomte Stakes, Mandaloun was really no threat for wire-to-wire winner Midnight Bourbon but did finish just a head behind runner-up Proxy, perhaps because the winner got an uncontested lead and also because the winner had the experience of running two-turn races previously. Improving off the experience, Mandaloun turned the tables on Midnight Bourbon to win the Risen Star clearly by one and one- half lengths, equaling the 97 figure earned one month earlier. Since the distance of the Louisiana Derby is only one-sixteenth of a mile farther than the Risen Star, I don't see any issue with Mandaloun running his best here. Whether that best effort is good enough to beat the improving Run Classic and Hot Rod Charlie is the reason why this race will be a great one to watch and wager on.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Midnight Bourbon (99), O Besos (94), Proxy (97), Rightandjust (90) and Starrininmydreams (88).

Win Contenders:
Run Classic
Hot Rod Charlie
Mandaloun

Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby – Grade 2
Race14 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, March 20 – Post Time 6:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Sixteenths
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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With ‘Phenomenal Workouts,’ Risen Star Winner Mandaloun Leads Louisiana Derby Field

Mention Juddmonte Farms' homebred Mandaloun to trainer Brad Cox and the reaction is telling. And immediate. Cox is looking forward to showing the rest of the racing world what he's thought all along—that Mandaloun is one serious 3-year-old—when he starts as a strong favorite in a sterling renewal of Saturday's 108th running of the $1 million TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots.

Run at 1 3/16 miles, the Louisiana Derby will offer 170 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, on a 100-40-20-10 scale, and highlight a robust 14-race card that includes eight stakes overall, including the supporting feature, the $400,000 TwinSpires.com Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) for 3-year-old fillies.

Mandaloun (post 6, as Mike Diliberto's 8-5 morning line favorite, with Florent Geroux to ride), a son of Into Mischief, burst on the national scene as a 2-year-old, easily winning both starts sprinting in Kentucky at short odds. Things didn't go as swimmingly in his 3-year-old debut, however, as he was third at odds-on in the local Lecomte (G3) in January, finishing behind winter rivals Midnight Bourbon and Proxy. Mandaloun was also making his two-turn and stakes debut in the Lecomte, and after taking a step back to look at the big picture, Cox wasn't as disappointed as maybe the betting public and Mandaloun's fan club was.

“You have to keep in mind it was his first start around two turns and first start in a stakes and he was a little bit wide the entire way,” Cox said. “I think he got a lot out of the race and moved forward off it. From a physical standpoint he looks like he's continued to develop.”

Cox also decided to make what would be a key equipment change after the Lecomte, as he put blinkers on for the Feb. 13 Risen Star (G2). Mandaloun trained brilliantly in the mornings with blinkers and backed Cox's high praise in the afternoon, when a much more polished colt turned the tables on both Proxy and Midnight Bourbon with an authoritative 1 ¼-length win, while earning the 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points that went with it. To Cox, the win and marked improvement was due to a combination of things.

“More than anything, it was just the experience of having the race going two turns under his belt,” Cox said afterwards. “I think the blinkers did help out. Florent immediately made a comment after the race. Much more focused in the post parade, more focused on his job. We didn't put a bunch of cup on him, just like a one-inch cup, but it seems to have done the trick to get him mentally over the top, mentally getting him where he needs to be.”

With the Risen Star behind him, and a berth in the Run of the Roses already assured, Mandaloun heads to the Louisiana Derby in a bit of an interesting position. Cox, who won the race last year with Wells Bayou, doesn't want to squeeze the lemon dry Saturday, even though there are a million reasons to do so. Mandaloun has continued to flourish in his training, highlighted by a March 6 bullet :59 1/5 drill going five furlongs over the track, which gives his trainer that much more confidence that he can pull off an elusive double that hasn't accomplished since Grindstone did it in 1996.

“His last two works have been phenomenal; we've done as much with him in the morning than we can do,” Cox said. “The goal is to get the job done on Saturday. He's going to have six weeks to recover, if he runs the way we hope he should, to point to the Kentucky Derby. There will be a period there where he can recover then hopefully, we can start cranking him up towards the end of April for the first Saturday in May.”

Godolphin's homebred Proxy (post 4 at 7-2 with John Velazquez) was a game second in the Risen Star and will try to emulate Mandaloun's path to victory, as he'll add blinkers for the meet's signature race. The son of Tapit has been a meet-long work in progress for trainer Mike Stidham, who has continually said the best is yet to come for a colt still on the improve. Proxy, who is 2-for-5 lifetime, broke his maiden and won an optional-claimer earlier in the meet before running second in the Lecomte, but after losing focus and dropping back entering the far turn of the Risen Star, only to re-break and salvage second, Stidham felt the time was right for a change.

“There were just a number of reasons why the blinkers were added,” Stidham said. “If you look at all of his races here at the Fair Grounds, in every race you can kind of see him doing a little erratic stuff, whether it be shying away, drifting out, or losing focus like he did in the Risen Star. You can't win Kentucky Derbies or Louisiana Derbies by doing that.”

Proxy has since worked three times with blinkers, which includes a Feb. 26 bullet 47 seconds flat four-furlong move. Stidham is confident the equipment change will have an impact, as will the elongated distance of the Louisiana Derby

“I felt like the works with blinkers, in company, he was definitely a little handier for the rider and more focused,” Stidham said. “We're finally getting these horses at our game; without a doubt the 1 3/16 miles is a big help. I'm welcoming the added distance and I'm hoping things go well here and then we get even more distance in Kentucky.”

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon (post 7 at 5-1 with Joe Talamo) will look to rebound after running third in the Risen Star, though he was beaten just 1 ¾ lengths in what was only slight regression after his strong Lecomte win for trainer Steve Asmussen. The son of Tiznow wired the Lecomte but settled in second in the Risen Star before tiring slightly late while showing plenty of versatility and backing up his biggest career win. Midnight Bourbon is 2-for-6 lifetime and gives Asmussen reason for excitement as he jumps back in to try Mandaloun and Proxy once again.

“I've always thought those three were very serious 3-year-olds, not just at the Fair Grounds but they are as good a prospect as you want to be around and I don't think they've done nothing to change anybody's opinion of that,” Asmussen said. “The addition of blinkers on the one (Mandaloun) and Proxy has been consistent, with the pedigrees they have, all three of them (including Midnight Bourbon) are capable, but at this point of your 3-year-old year, you either get better or you get beat. You've got to improve. What you've done (so far) is not going to be enough.”

Tom Durant's Run Classic (post 3 at 12-1 with Brian Hernandez Jr.) won a two-turn maiden special weight on the Risen Star undercard and will look to emulate history for trainer Bret Calhoun, who pulled the same double in 2019, when By My Standards broke his maiden on Risen Star Day and went on to win the Louisiana Derby. Calhoun knows it's a big ask, but he also knows he's got a son of Run Happy who is loaded with potential.

“We've been high on him for a long time; he's shown talent, he's performed up to expectations so far,” Calhoun said. “I know it's a big step forward, but we wouldn't be attempting this if we didn't think he was a pretty smart, good-minded horse”

Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing, and William Strauss' Hot Rod Charlie (post 5 at 3-1 with Joel Rosario) adds plenty of California class to the equation, as he was second to 2-year-old champion Essential Quality in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland in November for trainer Doug O'Neill. The son of Oxbow returned at 3 to be third behind the talented Medina Spirit in the Jan. 30 Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita and invades for a barn that won Risen Star in 2007 and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) in 2016 and 2017. Hot Rod Charlie is just 1-for-6 lifetime but owns a maiden win, to go with the Juvenile and Lewis runs, in what are his only three starts at two turns on the dirt. O'Neill's assistant Leandro Moro will be the trainer of record on Saturday.

Barrett Bernard, Tagg Team Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds' O Besos (post 8 at 15-1 with Marcelino Pedroza) was fourth in the Risen Star, in what was his two-turn debut. The son of Orb won twice sprinting at the meet for trainer Greg Foley before stretching out in an encouraging effort that he could build on.

Wayne T. Davis' Rightandjust (post 2 at 20-1 with Colby Hernandez), was sixth after setting the pace in the Risen Star for trainer Shane Wilson, and owner-trainer Dallas Stewart and WinStar Farm's Starrininmydreams (post 1 at 20-1 with Luis Saez) was ninth, in what was his seasonal debut.

Additional Louisiana Derby quotes:

Stidham, Proxy: His last work, we weren't looking for anything special. He worked by himself and he was comfortable going easy fractions. He's run four times at the meet and I know I have a fit horse, so I wasn't looking for anything fast, just a nice even, steady work. I don't worry about the blinkers making him overly aggressive, since he's not that type of horse. Even with the blinkers, you have to make him do what he does. He's not a horse that is going to drag you out of the saddle.

We would love to win this race; it's an important race for the horse and for my own personal reasons. But the only thing I'm truly looking for is this horse to take another step forward on numbers. If that meant running a huge race and running second, I would accept that because obviously the ultimate goal is having a horse that is going to be competitive in the Kentucky Derby.

Calhoun, Run Classic: He's pretty much done everything right so far and it seems like he's moved forward since the last race. I can tell he's a little more serious about his works. He was just doing things on raw talent and ability early on and I don't how much he knew what he was doing. Now he seems more focused on the task which translates to him being even that much more impressive in the mornings.

It looks like a pretty honest pace. It looks like there are several of them in there that show pretty good route speed. My horse has the ability to get pretty good position early on. If they're going too fast, I think Brian (jockey Hernandez, Jr.) will be sitting off of it. The added distance is definitely a concern, but I think it's a concern for all of them. I understand pedigree-wise it raises some questions (for us) but physically he looks like this is what he's meant to do. In his last race, Brian made this horse finish up and gallop out quite a bit and I don't think we got to the bottom of the tank. In his recent works, he's come home pretty quick. He's got a high cruising speed and he accelerates pretty strongly late and gallops out pretty strong. He hasn't shown us any distance limitations in the mornings. Obviously, a mile-and-three-sixteenths is going to be a big test for him as well as some of the others.”

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The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 9

This week's edition represents the most movement within the Top 12 all season. But brace yourself: the nine-furlong preps are next, and so are the juicier qualifying points opportunities. The GI Kentucky Derby forecast is for continued–but intriguing–volatility.

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $351,940.
Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Holy Bull S.
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

If Greatest Honour continues on his path to prominence, one of the more intriguing storylines of Derby 147 will be how Courtlandt Farms privately bought dam Tiffany's Honour in foal to Tapit after she RNA'd for $2.3 million in at Fasig-Tipton November in 2015. The foal she delivered was a striking individual, but the tale took a tragic twist when that colt was later killed in a paddock accident. Tiffany's Honour had already been bred back to War Front, but the following year Courtlandt mated her with Tapit again. The result is Greatest Honour, and you can read in a more detailed TDN column by colleague Chris McGrath how even as a yearling, Greatest Honour resonated as “the 'whole package'–a big, leggy, scopey, rangy horse; correct, well-made, good bone, everything.” Greatest Honour competed in a trio of “loaded” New York MSW races, then punched through to the elite level with a trio of emphatic victories (two of them stakes) at Gulfstream. All of those wins were at 1 1/16 miles, which trainer Shug McGuaghey has described as too short for this distance-centric deep closer. Yes, you can argue that Greatest Honour hasn't posted any elite-level Beyer Speed Figures to legitimize the visually impressive nature of his wins. That could be a concern moving forward, as no fewer than 27 performances by 3-year-olds on dirt so far in 2021 have earned Beyers above Greatest Honour's career-best 89. But it won't stop this powerhouse colt from going off legitimately favored in the GI Florida Derby.

2) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC; B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $274,200.
Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

Front-running phenom Life Is Good has now paired two daunting triple-digit Beyers (101 and 107). But the most astounding number associated with this 'TDN Rising Star' is the 2-1 favoritism he earned in Sunday's Pool 4 of the Derby Future Wager. This marked only the fourth time in 19 years that the pari-mutuel field of “All Other 3-Year-Olds” did not close as the March chalk. Saturday's win in the GII San Felipe S. was nothing short of scintillating. This $525,000 KEESEP purchase colt broke alertly from the rail, then bounded confidently onto the backstretch while intent on his work, but not keyed up about it. He maintained a three-length cushion through robust splits (:46.83 and 1:10.55), and when the closest three competitors all came under drives three-eighths out, jockey Mike Smith kept his mount in hand yet still managed to increase the gap. Life Is Good got momentarily distracted sailing solo through the stretch while drifting out (Smith said it was the video board) but won comfortably by eight lengths without ever having to give his all. Baffert acknowledged post-race his colt is “still green,” but quickly reminded that so, too, was 2020 Derby champ Authentic at this time last year. I'm still not quite ready to drape a blanket of roses around Life Is Good's broad, bay shoulders, though. He's raced just three times (twice against only four overmatched rivals), and none of the horses he's trounced is currently ranked as Top 12 contenders.

3) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality seamlessly bridged the gap between his juvenile championship season and his first start age three with one of those athletic, high-cruising, multiple-geared performances that have evolved as his hallmark over a 4-for-4 career. This Godolphin homebred colt's 4 1/4-length GIII Southwest S. score showed that racing in the slop is not a problem, and “EQ” has already won once (albeit sprinting) over the Churchill surface, which is another plus on his Derby progression checklist. He matches well with jockey Luis Saez, who very calmly executed an important lesson in patient rating when EQ was into the bit and initially wanted to pull about five furlongs out in the Southwest. Having said all of that, one box that remains unchecked is how EQ will fare once he gets his first taste of serious in-race adversity. In all three of his stakes wins, EQ's athleticism and tactical prowess have enabled Saez to pick outside positions well clear of potential trip trouble. And in no races has EQ had to deal with multiple waves of top-caliber closers. The four horses who chased him home for second and third in his two Grade I wins last autumn were 94-1, 52-1, 30-1 and 10-1, and none is a Top 12 contender.

4) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River will start favored in Saturday's GII Rebel S. based on his ability to quickly reach a high cruising speed and sustain it under pressure while never seeming to get anxious about it. Probables listed by Oaklawn suggest a likely field of eight, and the main competition for this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable figures to be Concert Tour (Street Sense), a fellow 'Rising Star' trained by Bob Baffert (who has won the Rebel seven times in its previous 12 runnings), and Keepmeinmind (Laoban), the deep-closing 80-Beyer victor of the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill. Trainer Brad Cox told Horse Racing Nation last week that among his three Derby candidates–No. 3 Essential Quality and No. 5 Mandaloun (Into Mischief) are the others–Caddo River is “probably the fastest of the three, just based off how they breeze.” Cox added that despite that breakaway nature, “Caddo River is definitely the most laid back of the three.” Caddo River's company line from his blowout win in the Jan. 22 Smarty Jones S. upticked slightly on Saturday when fourth-place Moonlite Strike (Liam's Map), came back to run third at 34-1 in the GII Tampa Bay Derby.

5) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-1, $351,252.
Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 3rd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 52.

'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun's past performance cut alone is impressive enough to merit inclusion among the A-list sophomores. He's 3-for-4 with Beyers that have ascended in every race, and his only loss was a third-place try, beaten only a length, in his stakes and two-turn debut. But as the 4-to-5 fave in that GIII Lecomte S. loss, this Into Mischief homebred for Juddmonte couldn't seal the deal in an unfocused effort. Even after Mandaloun rebounded with a blinkers-on GII Risen Star S. win, jockey Florent Geroux said, “He's never given me his full potential.” Mandaloun will hit his third birthdate two days before his next expected start in the Mar. 20 GII Louisiana Derby, so maybe he's not that far off from stepping it up, maturity-wise. With 52 points, he's currently third on the qualifying list to start in Louisville, so it's not imperative that he produce an over-the-top effort in his final Kentucky Derby prep. Right now it might be best to consider Mandaloun the highest-ranked “work in progress” horse within the Top 12–with the expectation that his production needs to catch up to his potential within the next 7 1/2 weeks.

6) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 5-2-3-0, $187,700.
Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Lecomte S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 24.

Proxy has never been worse than second in five lifetime outs, but you have to go back to a Dec. 19 N2L allowance win at Fair Grounds to find the performance that indicates how this colt is capable of controlling a race. Backed to 7-10 favoritism in a four-horse field, Proxy brushed the gate, confidently assumed command, conceded the lead between calls, then re-rallied to fight off a two-pronged stretch attack. Trainer Mike Stidham has been working this Tapit homebred in blinkers in preparation for the Louisiana Derby, with an eye on improving upon two runner-up efforts in which Proxy didn't always seem fully engaged. This colt's older sister, Micheline (Bernardini), another Godolphin homebred trained by Stidham, just won her first graded race on Saturday in the GII Hillsborough S. at Tampa. She had started her career 1-for-4, but after Stidham added blinkers late in her 2-year-old season, Micheline blossomed into a much-improved 4-for-9 streak, with three of those wins in grass stakes, plus a near-miss second against Grade I company at Keeneland. If the addition of blinkers has the same effect on little bro Proxy, look out.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-1-3, $261,420.
Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13.
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 3rd GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 26.

Midnight Bourbon resurfaces within the Top 12 after getting leap-frogged the last several weeks. The more I look at him, the more I now agree with trainer Steve Asmussen that he could be setting up nicely for a rebound race. When this $525,000 KEESEP colt wired the Lecomte S., he set a moderate, unchallenged pace and won with plenty in the tank, earning a Beyer that subsequently got revised upward from a 91 to a 93. When third next out in the Risen Star S., Midnight Bourbon twice led between calls (midway on the far turn and again at the eighth pole), then galloped out longer and stronger than the top two finishers. The imposingly long 1,346-foot stretch at Fair Grounds is often thought of as an advantage to closers. Yet the last three Louisiana Derbies have been won by speed-centric horses, including a wire job in last year's renewal, which was the first at the race's newly elongated distance of 1 3/16 miles. A son of Tiznow just now getting tight in his third start off the layoff for a trainer who has won this race three times? Sounds like a mild upset in the making.

8) SPIELBERG (c, Union Rags–Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, & Robert Masterson. B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,000,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 8-2-3-1, $413,200.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity,
2nd GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity, 3rd GI American Pharoah S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 17.

With eight starts under his belt, Spielberg is not your typical million-dollar yearling (KEESEP) that trainer Bob Baffert might nudge along the Derby trail with only a handful of well-spaced starts. After running second and third as a maiden against Grade I stakes company last September (favored in one of those races), this Union Rags colt is being given every opportunity to prove he belongs as a late bloomer at age three. His two wins were in a Del Mar MSW at a mile by a neck (in which the jock lost the whip) and in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose (when Spielberg was all out to reel in a 33-1 maiden). But the best race on his resume is his most recent effort, a second-place try in the Southwest S. behind champ Essential Quality. Racing in the slop for the first time, Spielberg was unprepared and ducked out at the break, then ran along well late to earn a credible second (despite no real chance to catch the winner because of how far behind he put himself at the start). Considering his sire won the 1 1/2-mile GI Belmont S., longer distances could be his launch pad.

9) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB}) O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $104,600.
Last Start: 1st GP allowance, Feb. 26.
Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 2.

This son of Curlin has the distinction of beating the current No. 1 kingpin on this list in an Aqueduct MSW back in November. But while Greatest Honour then went on a three-race win tear to vault him into the No. 1 spot, Known Agenda stalled for two starts before righting himself with a rip-roaring 11-length, blinkers-on win in a nine-furlong allowance-optional claimer at Gulfstream Feb. 26. Perhaps this $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG didn't care for the sealed and sloppy track when he got bumped off stride at the start of the GII Remsen S., and his 3-2 favored loss when fifth in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. might just be a case of not liking the sandy (and often quirky) Tampa track. But this chestnut attacked with metronomic precision after stalking a three-way duel in his Gulfstream comeback, unleashing a confident far-turn move before pouring it on in deep stretch. With two wins already at 1 1/8 miles, trainer Todd Pletcher is now considering the Florida Derby. But in addition to blinkers, Known Agenda also got a dose of Lasix for the first time in that allowance win, and he'll have to forego that medication in the Florida Derby as per new phase-out rules that now prohibit Lasix in the nation's top stakes.

10) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc & Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY);
T-Mark Casse. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $287,763. Sales history: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 6.
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

Not everything has gone as planned in trainer Mark Casse's preparations for Helium. Yet now this $55,000 FTKOCT (and subsequently privately purchased) first-crop colt by Ironicus is 3-for-3 after a 15-1 win in Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby (84 Beyer). After starting his career at Woodbine, a planned November stakes race there got cancelled. Casse then shipped Helium to Fair Grounds to try the Derby preps there, but Casse told DRF.com last week that the colt wrenched an ankle, so he sent him to his farm in Ocala. As Helium progressed, the Tampa Derby looked convenient from both a timing and close-to-home perspective. And now, for the fourth year in a row, that stakes has been won by a long shot. Helium was four wide while unhurried into the club turn, stalked midpack about six paths off the rail down the backstretch, then emerged from a far-turn logjam to get first run on a caving pacemaker. He had enough left to fight back when hooked in deep stretch by a fresh closer who had outside momentum, and deftly repulsed that bid. Although Helium is not currently a Triple Crown nominee, D J Stable racing manager Jon Green told TDN right after the win that this colt will be supplemented for $6,000 by the March deadline.

11) RISK TAKING (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor) O-Klaravich Stables Inc; B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 6.
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Risk Taking, who just celebrated his third birthdate Mar. 7,  is the only Top 12 horse currently wintering in New York. This $240,000 KEESEP Medaglia d'Oro colt also stands out as the rare Derby contender (along with Known Agenda) to boast two wins already at nine furlongs—a crucial distance that many Derby aspirants have yet to even attempt. His 89-Beyer Withers win was the result of a comfortable midpack stalking trip followed by a powerful move to collar a fading leader, and it gave the impression of more in the tank. Trainer Chad Brown has indicated he'll opt for two months between starts and aim for the GII Wood Memorial S. so he can keep Risk Taking at the distance and track over which the colt is 2-for-2.

12) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'OroEnrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight, GP, Jan. 23
Next Start: Allowance/optional claimer, GP, Mar. 11.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence will see action in Thursday's eighth race at Gulfstream, an allowance-optional claimer at a one-turn mile. He's a touch under the gun timing-wise after missing some February training because of a brief fever, but the plan for this Godolphin homebred still leaves room for a required start in a qualifying points stakes prep to try and garner entry into the Derby. This son of Medaglia d'Oro soared home by 8 1/2 lengths his Jan. 23 debut. That seven-furlong MSW appeared very deep on paper at the time, but six horses have now run back out of that race and only one was a next-out winner.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Concert Tour (Street Sense): This 2-for-2 Gary and Mary West homebred and 'TDN Rising Star' is on trainer Baffert's traveling team, shipping to Oaklawn for Saturday's Rebel S.

Hidden Stash (Constitution): One-run closer is a bit farther off the Derby radar than most, but this colt was the only one gaining in the stretch of the Davis, then mounted the only serious stretch challenge in the Tampa Derby after running off in the pre-race warmups.

Keepmeinmind (Laoban): Prepping for the Rebel S., jockey David Cohen said this late-running colt's most recent work featured a “nice, long gallop out, with nothing too rapid. I was very happy with the way he broke off. He has a tendency to get real tough. He did it really relaxed.”

Medina Spirit (Protonico): Baffert-trained overachiever, who hammered for just $1,000 at OBSWIN and $35,000 at OBSOPN, was second behind stablemate Life Is Good on Saturday but is clearly not in the same league. “He's a good horse and we needed to run first or second to continue on” with Derby preps, Baffert said, adding that the Santa Anita Derby of GI Arkansas Derby are possibilities.

Weyburn (Pioneerof the Nile): This 46-1 upsetter of the one-turn-mile GII Gotham S. racked up a big-league 95 Beyer. He's not Triple Crown nominated, but trainer Jimmy Jerkens said he will likely be supplemented for $6,000. No next-race commitment yet.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 9 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: Upping The Ante For Kentucky Derby Points

The stakes got a lot bigger last Saturday for horses on the road to the Triple Crown with the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La. The nine-furlong race is the first of seven contests that will offer 85 Kentucky Derby qualifying points (50-20-10-5 to the first four finishers), virtually assuring the winners will get into the Derby field.

The Kentucky Derby Championship Series also has eight races worth 170 points (100-40-20-10) and one race offering 34 points (20-8-4-2).

At Golden Gate Fields in Albany, Calif., the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby handed out 17 points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1) and the winner gets free entry into the G1 Preakness Stakes.

A number of very good horses have come out of the Risen Star (formerly known as the Louisiana Derby Trial Stakes, including the one-two finishers in 2019: War of Will, who would win that year's Preakness, and Country House, who was awarded the G1 Kentucky Derby via disqualification of Maximum Security for interference.

Three years earlier, the Risen Star was won by Gun Runner, who would go on to win the G2 Louisiana Derby, finish third in the Kentucky Derby, and take seven of his final eight career starts, capped by the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic and G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational.

The El Camino Real Derby's heyday was back in the 1980s and '90s, when a trio of Preakness winners were victorious in the race (Tank's Prospect in 1985, Snow Chief in '86 and Tabasco Cat, who also won the Belmont Stakes, in '94). Two El Camino winners went on to finish second in the Kentucky Derby: Casual Lies in 1992 and Cavonnier in '96.

The race has had little impact on the Triple Crown since Golden Gate went to the Tapeta synthetic surface in 2007.

Following is a glance at the Risen Star and El Camino Real Derby, along with my grades for the winners, which are based on how the horses looked, what Beyer Speed Figure they received, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of field.

Feb. 13 Risen Star Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Louisiana Downs

The three horses who finished within a length of each other in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds on Jan. 16 were back: Midnight Bourbon won the Lecomte, with Proxy second and Mandaloun third. The late-running Senor Buscador, winner of the Springboard Mile last out at Remington Park in Oklahoma Dec. 18, was a new addition to a mostly local lineup of 11 starters.

Midnight Bourbon and jockey Joe Talamo did not get the lead as they did in the Lecomte, usurped by Rightandjust, who crossed over from the outside post and went pretty quickly for the opening quarter mile (:23.65). Midnight Bourbon raced off Rightandjust's right flank, about a length ahead of Mandaloun and Florent Geroux, who were three wide throughout but more engaged than in the Lecomte after the addition of blinkers by trainer Brad Cox. Proxy, with John Velazquez up, was a close fourth for the opening half mile, running in spurts and slipping back going into the far turn after a second quarter mile in :24.80 and a third quarter in :24.29 (for half-mile and six-furlong splits of :48.45 and 1:12.74).

Mandaloun winning the Risen Star, Florent Geroux aboard

Midnight Bourbon poked his head in front of Rightandjust inside the quarter pole but Mandaloun quickly was alongside and began to edge away from the Lecomte winner. The fourth quarter went in :24.76 and Mandaloun ran his final furlong in :12.89 for a final time of 1:50.39 on a fast track.

Proxy ran an uneven race but finished with interest out in the middle of the track, closing from four lengths back after six furlongs and two lengths back at the furlong pole to draw within a 1 ¼ lengths of the winner. If the son of Tapit out of the multiple G1 winner Panty Raid (by Include) puts it all together he will be a tough customer in a rematch with Mandaloun.

The winner received a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, a big improvement from the 89 he got in the Lecomte and the third successive improved figure since his debut at Keeneland last fall. The blinkers, along with more racing experience, have turned Mandaloun into a very legitimate Kentucky Derby prospect for owner-breeder Juddmonte Farms and for Cox, who also has 2020 2-year-old male champion Essential Quality and Oaklawn's Smarty Jones winner Caddo River in his quiver.

Grade: B+

Feb. 13 El Camino Real Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Golden Gate Fields

Michael McCarthy-trained Rombauer was the 6-5 favorite while making his first start since a fifth-place finish behind Essential Quality in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland last November 6. He was entered and scratched from the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30, reportedly at the request of the owners/breeders, John and Diane Fradkin, who preferred the El Camino Real Derby.

This was the Twirling Candy colt's first race over a synthetic surface, though he began his career on turf, winning his debut last July going a mile at Del Mar, then finished sixth in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf. He then ran a good second on dirt to Get Her Number in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Sept. 26. Then came the Breeders' Cup, in which Rombauer broke from the 13 post in a 14-horse field, was 13 lengths back after a half mile, weaved through traffic and gained steadily in the short stretch at Keeneland to be beaten 6 ¼ lengths.

Rombauer and Kyle Frey defeat Javanica in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields

In the El Camino Real, Rombauer dropped back to last under Kyle Frey as It's My House set steady fractions of :24.00, :47.81 and 1:12.20 for six furlongs. Frey made a wide move on the turn and was up in the final yards to beat the filly Javanica by a neck, completing the distance in 1:51.64 after a mile in 1:38.56. Javanica, a Godolphin homebred by Medaglia d'Oro trained by Eoin Harty, was finishing second for the fourth consecutive stakes, beginning with the Glorious Song Stakes at Woodbine last October.

Rombauer received an 84 Beyer Speed Figure, compared to an 85 for his Breeders' Cup effort. This was not a particular strong field (the only two stakes winners won races restricted to California-breds) but a good stepping stone for Rombauer to prepare for much tougher competition down the road.

Grade: C

The only upcoming weekend Kentucky Derby points race is the Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse that is part of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Previously:

Feb 9 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Feb 2 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan 26 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 18 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

The post Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: Upping The Ante For Kentucky Derby Points appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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