Grading The Rising Stars – Class Of 2018

The smallest group profiled to date, numbering only 65, is led by its undisputed leader, undefeated Triple Crown champion and Horse of the Year Justify (Scat Daddy).

Justify debuted early in his 3-year-old season with a gate-to-wire 9 1/2-length romp at Santa Anita. Two starts later, in an effort to earn qualifying points towards the GI Kentucky Derby, the chestnut defeated MGISW Bolt d'Oro (Medaglia d'Oro) by three lengths to take the GI Santa Anita Derby and a spot in the Derby starting gate. With the 'Curse of Apollo' fresh on everyone's minds, Justify proved history wrong with a 2 1/2-length win over a loaded field of past and future stars in the GI Kentucky Derby. 2017 champion 2-year-old Good Magic (Curlin) chased him home ahead of such names as future GI Breeders Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso (Curlin) and MGISW Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy)

Good Magic took it to him again in a sloppy rendition of the GI Preakness S., dueling the Derby winner for nearly a mile before yielding as Justify prevailed late to win and keep his Triple Crown hopes alive. Never really challenged in New York, Justify stormed into infamy as only the second undefeated Triple Crown winner behind Seattle Slew (Bold Reasoning). Retired with earning of over $3,798,000, Justify stands at Coolmore's Ashford Stud and is a top-three freshman sire led by progeny such as 'TDN Rising Stars' Arabian Lion, Champions Dream, Justique, and Statuette.

Another undefeated horse in 2018, Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}) went four-for-four with three straight Grade I wins to end his year in the GI Del Mar Futurity, the GI American Pharoah S., and the GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Named champion 2-year-old for his efforts, Game Winner would go on to place in both the GII Rebel S. and the GI Santa Anita Derby as a 3-year-old before retiring a winner in the GIII Los Alamitos Derby. His first foals arrived this year.

Not to be left off the undefeated list, Improbable (City Zip) made just three starts as a 2-year-old, capping his year a winner in the GI Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity. It wasn't until later, however, that Improbable would do his best running. He would finish a close fourth in the GI Kentucky Derby as a 3-year-old but came back at four to win a trio of Grade I races in the GI Hollywood Gold Cup S., the GI Whitney S., and the GI Awesome Again S. before coming in second to Derby winner Authentic (Into Mischief) in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic. His accolades in 2020 would be rewarded with a year-end title as champion older dirt male.

A further eight 'Rising Stars' took at least one Grade I race in their careers, highlighted by GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Newspaperofrecord (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}), recent GI Matriarch S. winner Regal Glory (Animal Kingdom), and the half-sister to 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile), Chasing Yesterday (Tapit).

In total, 11 'TDN Rising Stars' would win a Grade I event, a 17% clip. A further 11 (17%) would win a graded-stakes race while 8 more would achieve graded-stakes placings (12%). Nine would be stakes winners in addition to a graded-stakes placing (14%), four would top out as stakes winners (6%), four would be stakes placed (6%) and 18 would not earn black type (28%).

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Eskimo Kisses’s First Foal Debuts at Chukyo

In this continuing series, we take a look ahead at US-bred and/or conceived runners entered for the upcoming weekend at the tracks on the Japan Racing Association circuit, with a focus on pedigree and/or performance in the sales ring. Here are the horses of interest for this weekend running at Chukyo and Nakayama Racecourses, including the first foal from a big-figure Keeneland November purchase:

Saturday, January 14, 2023
4th-CKO, ¥11,850,000, Newcomers, 3yo, 1400m
LA LA BELLEVILLE (f, 3, Union Rags–Divine Praises, by Medaglia d'Oro) is the latest to make the races out of a winning daughter of SW Grand Prayer (Grand Slam), who is also the dam of MGSW & GISP Valid (Medaglia d'Oro); GISW Malibu Prayer (Malibu Moon); and Grand Love (Gun Runner), third in last year's GIII Pocahontas S. A $130,000 Keeneland September grad, the dark bay is a half-sister to the commonly owned La La Chandon (Street Sense), a maiden winner at second asking in Japan in 2021. B-Three Chimneys Farm LLC (KY)

REGALO FIORI (JPN) (f, 3, West Coast–Legallini, by Hard Spun) was acquired in utero for $80,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale and is maternal granddaughter of MGSW/GISP Dust and Diamonds (Vindication), whose son Do Deuce (Jpn) (Heart's Cry {Jpn}) won the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity at two and last year's G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby). B-Hatakeyama Stud Farm

Sunday, January 15, 2023
3rd-CKO, ¥11,850,000, Newcomers, 3yo, 1800m
KISS ON THE CHEEK (JPN) (f, 3, Curlin–Eskimo Kisses, by To Honor and Serve) is the first produce from her dam, who took down the colors of Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute) in the 2018 GI Alabama S. and was purchased by Shadai Farm with this filly in utero for $2.3 million to rank as the second highest-priced offering of the 2019 Keeneland November Sale. A half-sister to Grade I-placed Silver Ride (Candy Ride {Arg}), Eskimo Kisses was produced by Silver Colors (Mr. Greeley), a daughter of champion 3-year-old filly and GI Kentucky Derby heroine Winning Colors (Caro {Ire}), who is also the granddam of two-time Japanese stakes winner Cheerful Smile (Jpn) (Sunday Silence). B-Shadai Farm

6th-NKY, ¥11,850,000, Newcomers, 3yo, 1800m
BOLD ZONE (c, 3, Mendelssohn–Halo Dolly, by Popular), closely related to Grade III-winning turf sprinter Barraza (Into Mischief), was an unfinished product when hammering for $40,000 at KEESEP in 2021, but improved nicely and fetched $280,000 from Katsumi Yoshida at OBS March last year after breezing an eighth of a mile in :10 1/5. Two-time graded winner Halo Dolly brought $300,000 from Spendthrift Farm at KEENOV in 2014 and was sold in foal to Authentic for $110,000 at the same event in 2021. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY)

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Classical Cat Pounces Late To Win Eddie Logan

A 2 1/2-length debut winner, Classical Cat jumped straight into deep waters, contesting the GI Del Mar Futurity and finishing seventh behind 'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock (Arrogate). Back in the winner's circle last time out at Santa Anita Oct. 23 in his first try over grass, Classical Cat kept to the grass Friday and broke as the 2-1 second wagering choice behind favored Nagirroc. Off the pace in fourth as Game Time (Not This Time) led the field of six, he hung against the rail before tipping out for a three-wide move into upper stretch. First Peace refused to let him go by and the pair dueled into the sixteenth before Classical Cat dealt the final blow and got ahead for the narrow win.

“I had Nagirroc to my outside and obviously he was the horse to beat,” said winning jockey Umberto Rispoli. “I was praying that Mike Smith (aboard First Peace) would go a little bit ahead of me at the quarter pole, which would give me a chance to find room between them. The horse helped me. I had a ton of horse underneath and when you have gas, you can go wherever you want. I think he won easily today.”

The second black-type winner for his freshman sire (by Scat Daddy), Classical Cat hails back to dual Eclipse champion and perennial leading sire Curlin (Smart Strike). Conquest Strate Up produced a yearling filly, H M Legacy (Hard Spun), and a weanling colt by Tiz the Law before going back to Tiz the Law for a 2023 foal. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

EDDIE LOGAN S., $100,500, Santa Anita, 12-30, 2yo, 1mT, 1:34.38, gd.
1–CLASSICAL CAT, 120, c, 2, by Mendelssohn
                1st Dam: Conquest Strate Up (SW, $192,984), by Not Bourbon
                2nd Dam: Deputy, by Hadif
                3rd Dam: Sherriff's Deputy, by Deputy Minister
($65,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). 1ST BLACK TYPE WIN. O-Michael
House; B-Pippa's Hurricane LLC (KY); T-Philip D'Amato;
J-Umberto Rispoli. $60,000. Lifetime Record: 4-3-0-0,
$146,300.
2–First Peace, 120, c, 2, Funtastic–Peace Opportunity, by
Point of Entry. ($15,000 Ylg '21 FTKFEB; $65,000 Ylg '21
FTKOCT; $75,000 2yo '22 OBSOPN). O-Rancho Temescal LLC,
Red Baron's Barn LLC & Rodney E. Orr; B-Christopher L. Baker
& Mullikin Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Mark Glatt. $20,000.
3–Nagirroc, 118, c, 2, Lea–Emma Spencer (Ire), by Zamindar.
O-Little Red Feather Racing, Madaket Stables LLC & William
Strauss; B-Chervenell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-H. Graham
Motion. $12,000.
Margins: HF, HF, 1 1/4. Odds: 2.30, 5.60, 1.10.
Also Ran: Game Time, Malibu Coast, Ah Jeez. Scratched: Speed Boat Beach, Tostado (Ire).

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American Sires Through a European Lens: Part II

Following the appraisal of some of the more established stallions in America who should be on the radar for European breeders, this second instalment looks at some of the younger horses coming through.

It can be argued that attempts to push the Galileo (Ire) sire-line in Kentucky were not as successful as anticipated, with Noble Mission (GB), the brother of Frankel (GB), emerging the best of a group that included such major disappointments as Cape Blanco (Ire) and Magician (Ire). While Noble Mission now stands in Japan, his Grade I-winning son Code Of Honor ($7,500) is about to embark on his second season at Lane's End Farm in Kentucky.

The desire to establish the Galileo sire-line in the US was easy to comprehend, not just because of his championship stud career in Europe but in light of the success enjoyed by Sadler's Wells's son El Prado (Ire), whose sire-line has thrived via Medaglia d'Oro and Kitten's Joy.

Kitten's Joy's death earlier this year robbed turf-minded breeders of a tried and tested option, making the hunt for an heir suddenly all the more important. Thankfully, he has a number of sons at stud and of those based in Kentucky with runners, much encouragement can be gleaned from the start made by Oscar Performance (Mill Ridge Farm: $20,000). A multiple Grade I winner who raced without Lasix, Oscar Performance's first crop of 2-year-olds includes a Grade II winner on turf in Andthewinneris alongside a dirt stakes winner in Red Carpet Ready. A number of other representatives are bubbling under, as an overall group of six stakes horses attests, and he is poised to end the year as America's top turf sire of 2-year-olds, ahead of such proven names as More Than Ready and Kitten's Joy himself.

Next in line is Grade I scorer Divisidero (Airdrie Stud: $5,000), a seven-time winner over five seasons who possesses exactly the kind of hard-knocking profile that should be aspired to. He doesn't have numbers on his side but in his favour is an interesting pedigree that goes straight back to Almahmoud via Cosmah. The ingredients are there for him to surprise a few people.

Divisidero, a seven-time winner over five seasons, possesses exactly the kind of hard-knocking profile that should be aspired to

Medaglia d'Oro's legacy has various horses working for it, not least Bolt d'Oro (Spendthrift Farm: $35,000), who is currently in a three-way battle for champion first-crop sire honours alongside Good Magic and Justify. Regardless of which way the championship goes, Bolt d'Oro emerges as one of the leaders of his generation however the figures are diced. While a tally of five stakes winners is bettered only by the six fired in by Justify and Good Magic, no horse can come close to his 14 black-type horses, which translates to a highly impressive figure of 18.4% to runners. Members of the stakes-winning quintet range from Instant Coffee, winner of the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., to Major Dude and Bobby O, successful in the GII Pilgrim S. and GIII With Anticipation S. on the turf, respectively. He has had just the one runner in Britain and Ireland but the colt in question is Bold Discovery, a winner on debut at Naas for Jessica Harrington who later ran third in the G3 Killavullan S. With his stock also attracting the attention of the European pinhookers, expect to see more of his progeny over here in due course.

In the meantime, it will be interesting to see how Medaglia d'Oro's GII-winning son Enticed (Jonabell Farm: $5,000), who stands alongside his sire at Darley, fares with his first 2-year-olds next season.

Justifying the hype

As with American Pharoah, fellow Triple Crown winner Justify (Ashford Stud: $100,000) has been afforded chances with a number of high-performing grass mares, many of them daughters of Galileo (Ire) belonging to the Coolmore broodmare band. The bulk of his representation has naturally been in America, where he is the sire of four stakes winners to date, all on dirt. But that push to have him well represented in Europe is also paying off. Ballydoyle, for instance, houses the G2 Balanchine S. winner Statuette as well as the promising maiden winners Dame Kiri and Bertinelli. The Fozzy Stack-trained Aspen Grove (Ire) also won the G3 Flame Of Tara S. 

One of Scat Daddy's most effective weapons was his ability to work internationally and although it is early days, Justify is following that example, with a flurry of recent Japanese winners to add to his early success in America and Europe. A total of 28 winners and six black-type winners is an excellent start by any measure. But don't forget, Justify is a big horse who didn't make his debut until February of his 3-year-old year. It stands to reason that his progeny will continue to improve.

Fellow Scat Daddy stallion Mendelssohn (Ashford Stud: $25,000) is another who has not lacked for opportunity, with the combination of a Grade I race record, a $3-million yearling price tag, and having Into Mischief as a half-brother key in attracting 252 mares in his first book and another 242 in his second. Mendelssohn was an accomplished 2-year-old on turf for Aidan O'Brien so it's surprising that so few made back it to Europe this season (only four runners in Europe so far), although the handful to hit the track did include Ballydoyle's listed-placed colt Congo River. He is one of six stakes horses for Mendelssohn in a group led by the GII Jessamine S. winner Delight.

While few sire-lines have the commercial pull of Scat Daddy, it remains dangerous to underestimate that belonging to More Than Ready. Of those with first 2-year-olds, Grade I turf winner Funtastic (Three Chimneys Farm: $5,000)–a relation to Gun Runner no less–might not have the numbers behind him but his trio of winners do at least include the GIII-placed First Peace.

Next in line is Catholic Boy (Claiborne Farm: $15,000), a horse of rare versatility who won the GI Travers S. on dirt and GI Belmont Derby Invitational S. on turf. Also precocious enough to win the GII Remsen S. and GIII With Anticipation S. at two, he has around 110 2-year-olds to run for him in 2023, among them a handful bought to breeze in Europe. It doesn't take too much imagination to envisage him filling the void left by More Than Ready as an effective sire on both sides of the Atlantic.

And perhaps Yoshida (WinStar Farm: $10,000), the sole son of Heart's Cry (Jpn) at stud in North America and Europe, will prove capable of laying the foundations for the Sunday Silence line to take root back in Kentucky. Like Catholic Boy, he was top class on both turf and dirt, in his case as winner of the GI Woodward S. and GI Old Forester Turf Classic S., and has been deservedly well supported, with over 100 2-year-olds set to run for him bred off a first-year fee of $20,000. He boasts all the attributes to be effective over here and with several having headed this way, it will be fascinating to see how he gets on.

Of the other Hail To Reason-line horses, the first yearlings by the Arch horse Preservationist (Airdrie Stud: $10,000) generated plenty of positive chatter, selling for up to $280,000. A series of setbacks prevented him from running until he was four, making it harder to gauge how much precocity he might be capable of imparting, but once he got going, he progressed to land the GI Woodward S. If he remains true to the Arch sire-line, then a number of his progeny will also be effective on turf.

Fans of the Arch line also have his final Grade I winner Instilled Regard (Taylor Made Stallions: $7,500) to choose from. A $1.05 million 2-year-old in training purchase, he was capable of performing to a high level on both surfaces, running Grade I-placed as a 2-year-old on dirt before winning the GI Manhattan S. as an older horse on turf. All in all, this is the kind of profile–longevity and versatility–that served the Roberto sire-line so well for so long. He stands for just $7,500 but does have the backing of his owner, Larry Best of OXO Equine.

Accomplished War Fronts

There are also several War Front horses waiting in the wings including Omaha Beach (Spendthrift Farm: $30,000), his sire's most accomplished dirt horse whose Grade I victories ranged from the Santa Anita Sprint Championship over six furlongs to the Arkansas Derby over nine. He represents a highly appealing package as a seriously talented, well-bred horse with the backing of some powerful connections and the market liked what it saw from his first yearlings, as illustrated by an average close to $200,000. He will be one of the favourites to end 2023 as a leading US first-crop sire but with that War Front connection, he is also worth bearing in mind from a turf perspective too.

The first foals by War Of Will (Claiborne Farm: $15,000) were well received at the winter breeding stock sales, selling for an average of $102,762. This is just the type of horse who should be capable of appealing to a worldwide audience, primarily in light of a race record that included the GI Preakness S. on dirt and GI Maker's Mark Mile on turf. Also Grade I-placed at two on turf, he was a graduate of the Arqana May Breeze-Up Sale and hails from a noted Niarchos family (he is out of a Sadler's Wells half-sister to Spinning World) that has worked well in different parts of the world. Given his own history as an accomplished European breezer, his first yearlings will likely catch the attention of that pinhooking community next autumn. 

As far as pedigree goes, they don't come much better bred than Lost Treasure (Ire) (Hill 'n' Dale Farm: $3,500), a stakes-placed War Front son of G2 Rockfel S. winner Wading (Ire) (Montjeu {Ire}), herself a granddaughter of Urban Sea (Miswaki). He doesn't have huge numbers on his side but his first yearlings sold for up to $65,000 and should he possess even a small measure of the sire talent of his relatives, then a fee of $3,500 could come to look very good value.

The fact that [Peter] Brant and Claiborne Farm elected to give Demarchelier a chance at stud is surely testament to his ability

For all the chat of American-sired horses, however, sometimes it pays just to not overcomplicate matters. To that end, there are two Peter Brant-owned horses standing in Kentucky with strong European connections.

Demarchelier (GB) (Claiborne Farm: $5,000)) is a beautifully-bred son of Dubawi (Ire) who cost 425,000gns as a Tattersalls October Book 1 yearling. He looked to have the world at his feet when winning his first three starts, including the GIII Pennine Ridge S., before an injury suffered in the GI Belmont Derby Invitational S. brought his career to an immediate halt. The fact that Brant and Claiborne Farm elected to give him a chance at stud is surely testament to his ability–indeed, Brant has supported him strongly and the resulting foals are likely to be in the hands of some high-profile trainers. He's an intriguing prospect, especially at $5,000.

Gainesway Farm, meanwhile, is home to Raging Bull (Fr), a Wildenstein-bred son of Dark Angel (Ire) who stands for $10,000. The horse is in fact arguably the most accomplished son of his sire at stud anywhere in the world given he won three Grade I races at three to six years–namely the Hollywood Derby, Shoemaker Mile and Maker's Mark Mile. Another well supported by Brant, mares in foal to him realised $360,000 and $230,000 at the Keeneland November Sale. The lots in question, Editor At Large (Ire) (Lope De Vega {Ire}) and Isle Of Wight (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}), were both snapped up by Denis Brosnan's Epona Bloodstock. Gainesway has long fared well out of standing turf milers and Raging Bull has been given every chance by connections to be the next in line.

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