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Racing’s Crystal Ball: How TDN Europe Predicts 2023 To Play Out

A large part of the fun that comes with following racing and the bloodstock game is predicting the future. Who will win the Derby? Who might top the Orby Sale? What freshman sires are here to stay and which ones will drift into the abyss?

Well, we've looked deep into the TDN Europe crystal ball for 2023 to see if we can come up with the answers to the burning questions for the year ahead. Enjoy!

January

If you think he had a good Christmas, wait until you see how January goes for Willie Mullins. This is the month where Ireland's dominant jumps trainer ramps up a gear, highlighted by Energumene's deadly performance in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot. Can anyone stop Energumene–or Mullins for that matter–at Cheltenham?

Meanwhile, Gordon Elliott appears to have his own festival banker in the shape of Mares' Novice Hurdle hotpot Halka Du Tabert, who makes light work of her rivals in the Solerina Mares' Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse.

Guess who features among this race's roll of honour? None other than Honeysuckle and Minella Melody. Could the torch be passed to fellow Kenny Alexander-owned Halka Du Tabert?

February

Reassuring figures are recorded at one of the first big Flat sales of the new year, the February Sale, where multiple lots sell for six figures. Maybe 2022 wasn't a dream after all.

Willie Mullins once again dominates at the Dublin Racing Festival where Honeysuckle's bid for a four-timer in the Irish Champion Hurdle is foiled by State Man, who now appears the chief Irish challenger to Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle.

Galopin Des Champs dazzles in the Irish Gold Cup, but will he stay the extra two furlongs up the punishing hill at Cheltenham?

March

Did somebody say Flat racing? Aidan O'Brien opens the gates at Ballydoyle to the Irish press and Brendan O'Rourke is back in search of the next two-year-old star to follow this season. “He's by No Nay Never, Brendan. Big Little something, I think he's called,” says Aidan. “A fiver or a tenner,” asks Brendan.

Constitution Hill proves worthy of all of the hype in the Champion Hurdle by beating Honeysuckle, who runs a tremendous race in the first-time cheekpieces.

It's easy-as-you-like for Energumene in the Champion Chase but there's a surprise in the Stayers' Hurdle as Ahoy Senor, re-routed from the Gold Cup, denies Flooring Porter a third straight triumph.

It's a one-two-three for team Mullins in the Gold Cup, but it's Emmet who takes the top honours, not his uncle Willie, as Noble Yeats out-battles Galopin Des Champs with Stattler running an eye-catching race with a view towards the Grand National back in third.

The recently-returned Oisin Murphy shines at the Dubai World Cup meeting. Meanwhile, industry stakeholders begin to get a foothold on what's required for the Dubai Breeze-up Sale as solid trade is recorded.

April

Don't say you weren't told. Stattler does a Hedgehunter by building on a cracking effort in the Gold Cup to secure Grand National glory at the main expense of Lifetime Ambition.

Oh yes. We're back, baby. The breeze-up circus gets going with a bang as the international buyers turn out in force for the Tattersalls Craven Breeze-up Sale. Tally-Ho Stud sells the top lot, a Kodiac colt, to Peter and Ross Doyle for high six figures.

Will he or won't he? The build-up to the Craven S. revolves around whether leading 2000 Guineas contender Chaldean will take in a prep or head straight to the Classic. In the end, Andrew Balding elects to sidestep the Craven, describing himself as delighted with Chaldean's condition at home on the gallops.

May

No prep run? No problem. Balding's decision to go straight to the 2000 Guineas with Chaldean pays off in spades as he romps home at Newmarket. Little Big Bear fails to get involved but Auguste Rodin finishes a fine second for Aidan O'Brien, who goes on to win the 1000 Guineas with Meditate.

In Chaldean's absence, Little Big Bear justifies O'Brien's faith in the colt's ability to see out the mile as he makes light work of the opposition in the Irish 2,000 Guineas while Dermot Weld's Tahiyra shows a blistering turn of foot to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas.

It's that man again. Willie Browne tops the Arqana breeze-up sale with a colt sourced in America the previous autumn.

June

Aidan O'Brien wins the Oaks with a filly who failed to win as a two-year-old while the Guineas runner-up Auguste Rodin takes the step up to 1m4f in his stride by running out one of the most impressive Derby winners for some time.

It's a week for the first-season sires at Royal Ascot as colts by Ten Sovereigns and Soldier's Call win the Coventry and Norfolk S. respectively while an Inns Of Court filly lands the Queen Mary S.

Kyprios runs out one of the most impressive winners of the week to take his second Gold Cup. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Sakheer dazzles in the Commonwealth Cup, once again advertising the prowess of breeze-up handler Willie Browne.

Back at the Curragh, Aidan O'Brien records a record-extending 15th Irish Derby triumph.

July

Auguste Rodin had the option of bidding for the Derby double at the Curragh but he proves himself to be equally as adept back over 10f in bolstering the good record that three-year-olds have in the Coral-Eclipse S. at Sandown.

Remember him? Desert Crown makes his long awaited return to the track in the King George at Ascot but he is no match for Vadeni who appears a much stronger horse this year and sees the trip out well.

The demand for horses with good ratings remains strong at the July Sale at Tattersalls while, on the track, Sakheer follows up his brilliant display at Royal Ascot with a red-hot performance in the July Cup.

August

After running a number of classy races against the boys, Dramatised causes something of a surprise for local owner Steve Parkin and trainer Karl Burke in the Nunthorpe S. at York.

September

He never managed to win the St Leger as a jockey but he does it as a trainer. Step forward Donnacha O'Brien. Proud And Regal, indeed.

Goffs captures the imagination with its latest incentive to attract buyers and vendors alike to the Orby, which continues to go from strength to strength. A number of New Bay and Mehmas colts sell nicely while Saxon Warrior hardens his reputation as a coming force in the stallion ranks with his progeny selling for notable sums.

October

No match for Alpinista 12 months ago, Vadeni wins the Arc from stablemate Al Hakeem with Bay Bridge keeping on best for third.

Book 1 does not disappoint at Tattersalls with 10 lots breaking the million gns mark, including Philip Stauffenberg's Kingman half-brother to Skitter Scatter, who he picked up for €550,000 at Goffs the previous November.

But the top lot is a 3 million gns colt consigned by Watership Down and it sells to Mick Donohoe, bidding on his iPad for Yulong, with MV Magnier and Anthony Stroud pushing him all the way.

The weather Gods do not look kindly on British Champions Day as the meeting is a washout and the testing ground throws up a number of surprise results.

November

It's a first Melbourne Cup victory for Willie Mullins as Champion Hurdle also-ran Vauban builds on his Queen Alexandra S. victory at Royal Ascot to take the race that stops a nation.

Nothing can separate Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby once again at the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita as both men send out five winners apiece. Special mention to Modern Games, who secures his third Breeders' Cup triumph and second Breeders' Cup Mile success.

December

There must be something in the water. Tally-Ho Stud clinches its third first-season sire championship in four years as Inns Of Court does what Mehmas and Cotai Glory did before him by producing the goods with his first crop of runners. It was an incredibly-strong year for the freshman sires with Soldier's Call, Ten Sovereigns, Too Darn Hot, Advertise and Blue Point achieving plenty.

Some extra dates are added to the farewell tour as Frankie Dettori announces his decision to continue his riding career for another season.

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O’Callaghan Eyes Dubai Riches Before Moving To Purpose-Built Yard

Michael O'Callaghan is eyeing big-race riches in Dubai with half-brothers I Am Superman (Ire) (Footstepsinthesand {GB}) and Fastnet Crown (Ire) (Hallowed Crown {Aus}) before making the move to a new purpose-built yard near the Curragh ahead of the turf season proper.

However, the leading Irish trainer has said that he remains in the dark over his position with Amo Racing despite sending out Crypto Force (GB) (Time Test {GB}) to secure G2 Beresford S. glory for Kia Joorabchian's major ownership vehicle at the Curragh last season.

Crypto Force joined the stable of John and Thady Gosden shortly after that triumph and O'Callaghan revealed that none of Amo Racing's horses, including Olivia Maralda (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}), Crispy Cat (GB) (Ardad {Ire}) and Indestructible (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}), have returned to his yard for the new season.

He explained, “They haven't arrived back yet. I'm not sure what the plans are with Amo. There was chat about Indestructible coming back but, with the way they move the balls around over the winter, I'll know more in the next few weeks.”

I Am Superman, who O'Callaghan sourced as a yearling and retains a share of, showed a high level of form for the trainer initially on home soil before being moved to Australia in search of better prize-money.

Now in his second stint with O'Callaghan after returning home from Peter and Paul Snowden's, I Am Superman will be targeted at top-level races in Dubai and is reported to have settled in nicely at Meydan along with his stablemate and half-brother Fastnet Crown.

O'Callaghan said, “I bought I Am Superman as a yearling. He won three races for us and ran well in the 2019 Irish 2,000 Guineas. I actually had him sold to Hong Kong later that year but he failed the vet for something obscure on an x-ray so we decided to keep him.

“We brought him to Australia for the prize-money and decided to leave him out there with Peter and Paul Snowden. He'd been there for roughly two years where he racked up about a quarter of a million dollars in prize-money.

“To be fair to the Snowdens, they felt they never really got the rub of the green with him either because, every time they felt they had him ready, the ground went against him. He was only beaten a short head in a Group 1 on his latest start out there and is from a family who progress a lot with age. I wanted to get a bit of mileage out of him myself before his form tapered off, which is why we got him back and are now aiming him at the big prize-money in Dubai.”

He added, “He's in great form. He got a break in Australia after his last run there. When he came back here, it was just a case of building him back up for Dubai. He's been to Dundalk for a racecourse gallop and he's ready to go. His first run will be in the Zabeel Mile and his main target will be the G1 Jebel Hatta on March 4. He may have a run in between but we'll get the Zabeel Mile out of the way first. If he got an invite for Dubai World Cup Night, we'd have to consider that as well.”

“Fastnet Crown is on the up and I've been wanting to step him up in trip for a while. He won his prep race at Dundalk last week and will start out over a-mile-and-a-furlong on Friday 13 and we'll take it from there. Both horses travelled over there well and they are in great form.”

Fastnet Crown will run in the colours of his owner-breeder Michael Smith, whose Fastnet Lady (Ire) (Fastnet Rock {Aus}) is fast becoming a prolific broodmare.

O'Callaghan said, “The two of them are out of Fastnet Lady, who Michael also bred. I bought I Am Superman off him and we got to know each other from there. He sent me Fastnet Crown, the half-brother, and we've a full-brother to I Am Superman here as well. The mare has been very lucky for him with her first two foals, I Am Superman rated 114 and Fastnet Crown rated 106, so she's a good mare and I understand that she's now in foal to Australia (GB). Michael has been to Royal Ascot, had a winner on Derby day at the Curragh and he's coming to Dubai as well. He's loving it and I'm delighted because he's a lovely man.”

Domestically, O'Callaghan has high hopes for Gozen (Ire) (Kuroshio {Aus}). A winner on debut at Punchestown last September, Gozen was possibly a shade unlucky not to win the G3 Staffordstown S. at the Curragh when forced to race wide. O'Callaghan has Classic aspirations for the filly who failed to sell at the breeze-ups.

He said, “Gozen's first intended target will be the Irish 1,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown over a mile, which we won with Now Or Never (Ire) (Bushranger {Ire}). She's done very well over the winter and, I know it's a cliche but, everything she did last year, she'll improve on it because she's a big, raw filly. She's filled out very well over the winter so I'm really looking forward to her.”

Recalling how Gozen fell through the cracks at the Tattersalls Ireland Goresbridge Breeze-up Sale last year, O'Callaghan added, “To be fair to Eddie Ahern, who consigned her, he always felt she'd need time but he really liked her. He just let her do a nice canter in the breeze and, for people watching on, it probably left more questions than answers. I remember seeing her and I wrote in my catalogue, 'lovely action but she only cantered; is there an issue?'

“Funnily enough, Michael Shefflin, who is involved with Eddie, rang me a few weeks later to ask if I would have any interest in taking her for a month to try her out. He told me that, if I liked her, I could buy her privately. That's how it all happened.”

Asked if he was tempted to sell Gozen at any stage last season, O'Callaghan said, “There was plenty of interest after she finished second in the Group 3. Her form stacks up very well and you could even say that she was a little unlucky at the Curragh not to win. She will improve for strengthening up and I'd imagine the mile will be her minimum this season. She has a lot of natural speed.”

Seven of O'Callaghan's 15 winners in Ireland last year were recorded with two-year-olds. The figure was 13 from 17 in 2021. Few operators concentrate as heavily on juveniles as O'Callaghan and he has high hopes for the next crop coming through at his new base in Brannoxstown near the Curragh.

He said, “We have a lovely Inns Of Court (Ire) filly-a lovely shape of a filly. She's actually a homebred. I also have a nice Mehmas (Ire) colt and a nice Sioux Nation filly. They look to be nice two-year-old types and I like them. They've done plenty and were all broken in August. “They cantered away and have built their way up as much as they were able for. They'd have quickened up a couple of furlongs just before Christmas before getting a little break and starting back on Monday morning.”

He added, “We'll be fully moved into the new yard by the end of January. It's been a slow process between buying the site, getting planning permission and then the building. The gallops are fully finished over two months now so they will be nicely settled by the time they have horses on them, which is good. We've built the place from scratch and are looking forward to getting going there fully this season.”

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Persian Force To Stand Alongside His Father Mehmas At Tally-Ho Stud

Less than a week after his owner Kia Joorabchian announced that leading juvenile Persian Force (Ire) would be retired to stud, Roger O'Callaghan confirmed that the Group 2-winning speedster would be heading back home to Tally-Ho Stud, where he will stand alongside his father Mehmas (Ire) in 2023.

Tally-Ho snapped up Persian Force at the November Foal Sales at Goffs in 2020 for €75,000 from Ringfort Stud before selling the colt the following year at the Orby Sale to Peter and Ross Doyle for €225,000.

Last seen finishing a gallant fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, Persian Force won three of his eight starts for Richard Hannon, with the clear highlight coming when he landed the G2 July S. at Newmarket in good style.

That effort came off the back of a smart second to Bradsell (GB) (Tasleet {GB}) in the G2 Coventry S. at Royal Ascot. Persian Force also placed three times at the highest level, including when narrowly beaten by Blackbeard (Ire) (No Nay Never) in the Prix Morny at Deauville.

Confirming the news at Tattersalls, O'Callaghan said, “It will be nice to have Persian Force standing alongside his father Mehmas at Tally-Ho next year. Persian Force was a lovely horse when we bought him as a foal, a lovely horse when we sold him at the Orby and he is still a lovely horse.

“He was bought by a very shrewd judge in Ross Doyle at the Orby and was a very good horse from start to finish with Richard Hannon, who did a brilliant job with him. He showed his class when winning the G2 July S. at Newmarket and I think breeders will be keen to use him. We haven't decided on a fee yet.”

Persian Force retires to stud with £289,012 in career earnings under his belt and a rating of 112. When revealing the news on Sunday that the colt would be retired this season, Joorabchian said that Persian Force compared favourably to Mehmas, who has emerged as one of the leading sires in Europe after beginning his career at Tally-Ho at €12,000. He will stand for €60,000 next year.

Speaking on Luck On Sunday, Joorabchian said, “He's followed the footsteps of his father, he's done everything Mehmas has done.

“Arguably, according to Richard Hannon, who trained both, he's a better looking version of his father and he's got a better pedigree. He started in March and ran in everything.”

He added, “He's never had a bad run, he's followed the footsteps of his father from start to finish and his father retired at the end of his 2-year-old career and has had a fantastic career in stud as a stallion.

“His father will stand at €60,000, so looking at that he can definitely follow in the footsteps of his father, if not better, because your son is always better than you.”

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Who’s Hot Ahead Of The Tattersalls December Foal Sale?

The insatiable demand for foals was evident in the figures recorded at Goffs last week with turnover rising 16% to €29,561,000 and the average climbing 16% to €40,110.

At the top end of the market, Kingman (GB) dominated with three foals by the Juddmonte-based stallion selling for a combined €1,540,000 and one of Europe's leading pinhookers Philipp Stauffenberg signing for the €550,000 top lot by the sire.

Tally-Ho Stud may be best known for being sellers but they pipped Stauffenberg for the biggest spenders title by signing for 19 foals for €1,429,000. Juddmonte, Yeomanstown, BBA Ireland and Camas Park Stud were also on the front foot at Goffs.

Away from the top end, there were interesting trends to emerge last week that could well impact how this week's December Foal Sale plays out at Tattersalls.

What first-season sires do the buyers want? Who are the emerging forces in the stallion ranks and where might the value lie at Tattersalls? We've examined all of that and more.

Stock In Mehmas And New Bay Is Booming

It's been a breakout year for Mehmas (Ire) and New Bay (GB), who have had their fees for 2023 hiked off the back of memorable campaigns for their respective progeny and, judging by how well their foals went down at Goffs, they can again be expected to play a leading role at Tattersalls.

Let's start with Mehmas, a horse who began his stud career at Tally-Ho in 2017 at a fee of €12,500 and has justified his bump to €60,000 after another memorable campaign, highlighted by Group 1-winning sprinter Minzaal (Ire).

New Bay has done something similar at Ballylinch in that he has climbed the ranks the hard way. He also entered the stallion ranks in 2017, standing for €20,000, but has had his fee for 2023 increased to €75,000 from €37,500 with Bay Bridge (GB), Bayside Boy (Ire) and Saffron Beach (Ire) doing their bit to advertise their stallion's prowess at the highest level this season.

Nine New Bays sold at Goffs for an average of €80,750, headed by colts who sold for €145,000 and €140,000, while Mehmas enjoyed a similarly productive sale with 26 foals selling for an average of €62,455. Four foals by Mehmas broke the €100,000 mark with BBA Ireland going to €160,000 to secure a colt by the stallion.

What's clear about last week's results is that Mehmas and New Bay are the emerging forces in the European stallion ranks. There are 30 foals by Mehmas and 16 New Bays at Tattersalls this week and it will be interesting to see how they perform.

Sergei To Make A Splash?

The Whitsbury Manor Stud team got to dip their toe into the market with some of the first foals by Sergei Prokofiev (Can) going under the hammer at Goffs. How that will prepare an operation who excelled itself with leading first-season sire Havana Grey is hard to know given the amount of foals due to be sold by Sergei Profkofiev at Tattersalls this week.

The Goffs offering went down well; one colt made €52,000 while the WH Bloodstock team paid €45,000 for another. Of the six foals that sold at Goffs, they averaged at €34,167. Not bad going for a stallion who stood at £6,500 in his first season at stud.

Indeed, Sergei Prokofiev hails from that Scat Daddy line that is proving so popular. He was clearly quite the looker, too, given he fetched $1,100,000 as a yearling before carving out a decent career without managing to win a Group 1 for Aidan O'Brien.

There are 60 foals by Sergei Prokofiev at Tattersalls this week. They should provide a better sample size into the standing in which he is held in with the buyers.

Najd Stud Snap Up Foals

We have become accustomed to Najd Stud playing a major role at the horses-in-training sales but it was interesting to see the Saudi Arabian-based outfit sign for four foals at Goffs. Is that a sign of things to come at Tattersalls this week?

Najd Stud didn't shoot the lights out, either, at Goffs. A Ghaiyyath (Ire) colt topped the total spend of €134,500 across five foals. Interestingly, a filly by Shadwell's Commonwealth Cup winner Eqtidaar (Ire), who has his first runners next year, was among the purchases at €36,000 as was a €3,500 Belardo (Ire) colt on the final day of the sale.

Kildangan-Based Sires Come Up Trumps

Speaking of Ghaiyyath, the Kildangan-based freshman sire enjoyed a rock-solid start at Goffs with 11 of his first foals selling for €824,000 which averages out at €74,909.

Leading pinhookers Pier House Stud bought the top two colts by the stallion for €185,000 and €145,000 respectively and few would be surprised if the offerings by the four-time Group 1 winner go down well at Tattersalls as well.

Of the 11 foals cataloged by Ghaiyyath at Tattersalls, a filly out of a sister to New York Girl (Ire) (New Approach {Ire}) and a half-brother to Global Giant (GB) (Shamardal) stand out on paper at least.

Fellow Kildangan-based stallions Blue Point (Ire) and Earthlight (Ire) also performed well. Earthlight had 17 foals sell for €942,500 at an average of €55,441 with Tally-Ho, Lynn Lodge Stud, Peter and Ross Doyle among the significant buyers of his progeny.

Even more impressive were figures posted by Blue Point, who had 20 lots sell for €1,011,500 at an average of €56,194. Top of the pops were colts knocked down for €200,000 apiece to Camas Park Stud and Katsumi Yoshida.

Blue Point's yearlings were similarly well-received. Famous for winning the King's Stand and Diamond Jubilee S. in the same week at Royal Ascot in 2019, Blue Point will have his first two-year-olds hit the track in 2023, with yearlings by the sire averaging over €100,000 this year.

His stats performed favourably against proven sires Dark Angel (Ire), Showcasing (GB), Kodiac (GB), Starspangledbanner (Aus) and Acclamation (GB) in terms of average for a similar number of lots through the ring at Goffs last week. It will be interesting to see if he can carry over that sort of momentum at Tattersalls.

First-Season Sires

Next year's race to be crowned champion first-season sire is being billed as one of the most exciting renewals for a long time with Too Darn Hot (GB), Blue Point, Waldgeist (GB), Magna Grecia (Ire), Ten Sovereigns (Ire), Calyx (GB), Advertise (GB), Invincible Army (Ire), Land Force (Ire) and Soldier's Call (GB) having their first runners in 2023.

As mentioned above, Blue Point performed well at Goffs while a number of leading pinhookers got behind the progeny of a number of the first-season sires.

Advertise was one who came out nicely on the figures from a relatively small sample size at Goffs and one would imagine that Tattersalls will provide a more accurate barometer given he has 19 foals there.

But the Goffs results read well. Six foals sold for an average of €32,167 which was more than Invincible Army [14 for €29,773], Ten Sovereigns [15 for €26,833] and Soldier's Call [14 for €26,417]. Those figures could well average out this week. Time will tell.

First Crops Of Note

Along with Ghaiyyath, Earthlight and Sergei Prokofiev, who we have already mentioned, a number of stallions had their first crop go under the hammer at Goffs.

Some of the more interesting results were posted by Arizona (Ire), perhaps unsurprisingly given he is a son of the sire of the moment, No Nay Never, while King Of Change (GB), Mohaather (GB), Sottsass (Fr) and Without Parole (GB) caught the imagination.

Peter Nolan paid €60,000 for an Arizona half-brother to Eldrickjones (Ire) (Cotai Glory {GB}) while the Coolmore-based freshman sire, who stands for just €5,000, averaged a respectable €20,192 for 13 foals.

Sottsass was a classier racehorse than most of his first-crop rivals and it told in the figures at Goffs with the former Arc winner posting averages comparable with Mehmas, Invincible Spirit (Ire) and Dark Angel. There were 11 foals by Sottsass at Goffs and they sold for an average of €61,100 and a top price of €180,000.

G1 Sussex S. winner Mohaather created a good impression with five foals selling for an average of €49,250 including a top lot of €95,000 while Without Parole had four foals sell for an average of €27,000 and a high of €70,000.

King Of Change was subject to a recent transfer after being snapped up by Starfield Stud from Derrinstown and it looks like it could prove to be a decent move given how his first foals performed.

Peter and Ross Doyle paid €50,000 for a colt by the sire who averaged a solid €24,714 for seven foals sold. That's a good return for a Group 1-winning stallion who is set to stand for just €5,000 next year.

Coolmore Can Count On Wootton Bassett And No Nay Never

Wootton Bassett (GB) and No Nay Never flew the flag for Coolmore at Goffs while demand for the progeny of Saxon Warrior (Jpn) was evidently up off the back of an excellent autumn for the first-season sire.

Wootton Bassett was bettered only by Kingman and Galileo, who between them accounted for just four foals at Goffs, for the highest averages posted.

The sire of brilliant G1 National S. winner Al Riffa, Wootton Bassett clearly captured the imagination last week, with seven foals selling for €1,345,000 at an average of €224,167 which earned him a top-three finish in that particular table.

No Nay Never enjoyed an eighth-place finish in averages posted on €134,800 and, while Saxon Warrior was down on that list at €52,263, he posted a chunky aggregate with 21 foals selling for €993,000. That was the seventh-highest aggregate recorded by any stallion.

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