Don’t Bet On Most Accomplished Colt Being Favored in Derby

The Week in Review by T.D. Thornton

Epicenter (Not This Time) is the first horse on this year's GI Kentucky Derby trail to arrive back in the proverbial clubhouse. His afternoon work is finished for the next six weeks, and he's earned his berth in America's most important horse race in a thoroughly professional manner that checks many of the boxes on the Derby desirability list.

Epicenter's never-in-doubt dismantling of the GII Louisiana Derby field serves as a microcosm of his overall body of work: He's an adept breaker from the gate. His running style is speed-centric without a crazed need to seize the lead. He cranks out up-tempo quarter-mile splits without showing visible signs of duress. He can fight the entire length of the stretch (although he didn't need to in Saturday's even-keeled 2 1/2-length win), and he gallops out past the wire like he wants more.

You want additional attributes that suggest a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May could be within this $260,000 Keeneland September colt's grasp? Epicenter, as a January foal with six lifetime races, has an edge as one of the oldest and most seasoned sophomores. His Beyer Speed Figures have ascended in each race without any wild fluctuations that might make them seem suspect. He's won four starts, including three around two turns, one each at nine furlongs and 1 3/16 miles, and one over the Derby surface at Churchill Downs.

Epicenter's only loss within the past six months came after he forced the issue from between foes in the GIII Lecomte S., held off a wall of horses at the top of the lane, repulsed a strong bid from the all-out favorite through the length of the long Fair Grounds stretch, then got nailed the wire by a last-gasp 28-1 shot (before quickly surging back in front several jumps after the finish).

The 102 Beyer this Winchell Thoroughbreds colorbearer earned in his Louisiana Derby romp is going to get a lot of ink. But here's an even more impressive set of metrics that won't get as much attention: Of all the two-turn Derby qualifying races run in 2022, regardless of the distance, only three of them have featured internal quarter-mile splits under 25 seconds each. Epicenter orchestrated two of those performances–his Louisiana Derby and Grade II Risen Star S. wins (The other prep with all sub-25-second quarters was the GIII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream.)

Yet despite that impressive list of accomplishments, it's a likely bet Epicenter won't be favored on Derby Day.

More than any other race of the year, betting on the Derby is highly driven by headlines and easy-to-grasp media narratives. Recency bias also plays a big role, meaning the wagering public puts outsized emphasis on events that have just occurred at the expense of those farther back in the rear-view mirror.

Put another way, Derby bettors love to zero in on compelling story lines that have to do with explosive last-race wins by young colts perceived as sky's-the-limit contenders (especially if they have human connections who love to talk up their chances).

While Epicenter is a lot of things in racehorse terms, it would be a stretch to label him as “flashy.” Crank-it-out consistency is more his style, and those types of Thoroughbreds typically get overlooked because there's no wave of hype driving the wagering sentiment.

Six weeks is a small eternity in the lead-up to the Derby. As the glow of Epicenter's shining winter/spring campaign recedes, how many times between now and May 7 do you think trainer Steve Asmussen is going to have to politely address his 0-for-23 record in the Derby, the longest active drought on record? That one stat will be repeated over and over again, and even if you don't believe it's entirely relevant to Epicenter's chances, it will certainly serve to inflate his odds.

Epicenter's broad, bay shoulders must also carry the burden of the Louisiana Derby itself. Not only is the premier race in New Orleans one of the least-productive Kentucky Derby prep races in history, but it's also one that increasingly appears to be infused with weird juju.

The Louisiana Derby dates to 1894. Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby–Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924. One Louisiana Derby runner-up–Funny Cide in 2003–also scored in Louisville. But that's it. No other horse who even competed in the Louisiana Derby–regardless of where he finished–has ever crossed the finish wire first under Churchill's twin spires.

Yet now, because of oddball circumstances, the Louisiana Derby is on the verge of having two of its also-rans within the past three years recognized as Kentucky Derby winners via disqualification–Country House in 2019 (because of Maximum Security's in-race foul) and Mandaloun in 2021 (pending the still-under-appeal drug DQ of Medina Spirit).

Country House never raced again after his Derby win via DQ. Grindstone also never raced again after his Louisiana/Kentucky Derby double, and when he died last week at age 29, he was the oldest living Kentucky Derby winner.

But the career arc of Black Gold is more improbable than both of those bizarre happenstances combined.

According to legend (as recapped in Black Gold's National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame bio), a horse owner in the 1910s named Al Hoots had a deathbed vision that his 34-for-122 mare U-See-It (sometimes spelled without the hyphens) would be bred to Col. E. R. Bradley's stallion Black Toney, and that the foal would win the Kentucky Derby. The mare had been so special to Hoots that he once–armed with a shotgun–refused to hand her over after she got claimed out of a race in Juarez, Mexico.

Several years later, after Hoots died, his widow, Rosa Hoots, did indeed breed U-See-It to Black Toney. When oil was discovered a short time later on her Oklahoma property, Mrs. Hoots became wealthy overnight, and in the spirit of the fortuitous oil strike, she named the colt Black Gold. As her husband had predicted, Black Gold won the 1924 Kentucky Derby, making Rosa the first woman to breed and own a Derby winner.

Black Gold was retired to stud but was not fertile. He sired exactly one foal, a colt. It was killed by a lightning strike.

At age six, Black Gold was returned to the racetrack for an ill-fated comeback. He went 0-for-4, and in his final start at the Fair Grounds, on Jan. 18, 1928, he suffered a catastrophic injury and was buried in the track infield.

The Louisiana Derby hasn't been short on talent in recent decades. Some pretty nice winners out of that race–Risen Star, Peace Rules, Hot Rod Charlie–blossomed into Grade I victors without winning the Kentucky Derby. Asmussen himself even trained two eventual Grade I grads who won the Louisiana Derby, namely Gun Runner and Pyro.

This spring, Epicenter has a chance to rewrite the Derby map that links New Orleans and Louisville. And if you like his chances in the aftermath of his Louisiana Derby score and what he's shown us so far, just wait another month and a half for his price to ripen come Kentucky Derby day.

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Like Baseball, Racing Will Have to Come to Grips with Unsettling Era

While horse racing was consumed last week by headlines related to the federal doping conspiracy trial and Bob Baffert's exclusion hearings at the behest of the New York Racing Association (NYRA), the sport of baseball, too, was embroiled in its own ongoing performance-enhancing drug (PED) saga.

Last Tuesday, retired slugger David Ortiz was voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility, while Barry Bonds (the all-time and single-season home run record-holder) and Roger Clemens (one of the most dominant pitchers in major league history) both were denied entry by a lack of votes in their 10th and final years on the ballot.

Baseball's controversy had been simmering for years against the backdrop of the “steroid era” that ran roughly from the late 1980s to around 2010, during which a number of prominent players with outsized statistical output were either strongly suspected of or tested positive for PED usage.

While Ortiz reportedly tested dirty in 2003, it was later suggested by league officials that his one-time bad test (for a substance that has never been publicly disclosed) was the result of a false positive. Given his otherwise clean record and Hall-worthy stats, Ortiz sailed through the voting in his first try. But Bonds and Clemens–both of whom had never tested positive for, nor were ever disciplined for PED usage–again didn't make the cut despite overwhelmingly dominant on-paper credentials.

Baseball's Hall of Fame is unique compared to other sports in that it has a clause stating that those voted worthy of the honor “shall be chosen on the basis of playing ability, sportsmanship, character, their contribution to the teams on which they played, and to baseball in general.”

The “character” part of that requirement is why Bonds and Clemens failed to secure the necessary 75% of the voting bloc. Just like the presumed prolific juicers Mark McGuire and Sammy Sosa, who had also put up incredibly aberrational numbers in the 1990s, they were all denied entry because of the rampant perception they had cheated and sullied their sport.

An obvious (and admittedly flippant) racing-related take on this is that perhaps baseball should be more like our sport–we induct Hall-of-Famers (at least the human ones) while they are still active in the game.

It is only after honoring trainers and jockeys for lifetime accomplishments that regulators and racing associations occasionally have to make uncomfortable decisions about whether those honorees will be allowed to participate in the day-to-day doings of Thoroughbred racing.

But the election of Ortiz could be signaling another subtle shift in baseball's Hall voting. As the years and decades pass, there is a greater likelihood that future voters will decide that players from the PED era were not specifically guilty of doping because they were caught up in a time when the entire game was perceived to be pharmaceutically tainted. Blaming circumstances always gets easier with the passage of time.

Yet as John Feinstein of the Washington Post put it last week, “A Hall of Fame–in any sport–is supposed to be about what is good in that game. It goes beyond numbers. If you insist that Bonds and Clemens should be included because of their performance, fine. Then the Hall should create a 'Steroids Wing' and recognize those with stunning statistics who we know used steroids, even if they never tested positive.”

Racing, too, is going to have to make similar decisions in the long run.

In fact, you can already see some of the nearer-term ramifications of NYRA's attempted banishment of Baffert and the edict issued by Churchill Downs, Inc. (CDI), that prohibits Baffert's trainees from running in the next two GI Kentucky Derbies coming more clearly into focus.

In the case of NYRA, it's a Pandora's Box type of vicious cycle. Now that Baffert has been established as a baseline for exclusion, who's next? We already know that trainer Marcus Vitali is scheduled for a similar “go away” hearing in March. And NYRA announced just last week trainer Wayne Potts could be on deck.

It doesn't take more than a quick scroll through social media or a chat with backstretch folks to come up with a growing list of alleged wrongdoers who all fit the mold of, “They're trying to rule off Baffert, but what about so-and-so?”

So where does it end? Can we expect that NYRA will be charging and then holding exhaustive, week-long hearings related to detrimental conduct on a continual basis from here on out? The costs could be staggering, both in terms of actual legal expenses for NYRA, plus the public relations price of never-ending negative headlines becoming entrenched atop the news cycle.

Then again, another school of thought holds that this type of trainer-by-trainer house-cleaning is long overdue and is exactly what NYRA needs to do as a protective measure.

As for CDI's banning of Baffert from the Derby, it's also fair to ask how this decision will affect the image of America's most iconic horse race over the long haul.

Right now Baffert trains two undefeated Derby contenders, the presumed divisional champion and 'TDN Rising Star' (Corniche), plus Saturday's winner of the GIII Southwest S., Newgrange (Violence). Per usual, the seven-time-Derby-winning trainer could have another colt or two primed to peak before the first Saturday in May rolls around.

A few weeks ago I wrote about how CDI's ban could backfire by turning Baffert's exclusion into the unwanted focal point of the 2022 Derby. Now let's widen the lens further: How do you think history will portray the “most exciting two minutes in sports” when the ink is dry on what might someday be called the “Dirty Derby” era that started in 2019?

We already have a decent idea of what the first section of that rough draft will look like. It starts with Maximum Security, a one-time $16,000 maiden-claimer, soaring improbably above his peers to win the 2019 Derby, only to get disqualified for a debatable in-race interference call that roiled the sport for months.

A year later, in 2020, we learned that Maximum Security's trainer, Jason Servis, was arrested in a nationwide equine drug sweep, and that the feds allegedly have him on wiretap repeatedly discussing the doping regimen of Max during the time frame that included the colt crossing the wire first in that 2019 Derby.

Then 2021 brought us another unlikely Derby victor in Medina Spirit, a colt who was so unheralded in the sales ring that he once hammered for the too-low-to-be-true price of $1,000. Yet Baffert had him honed to such a high degree that he wired the field in the first leg of the Triple Crown.

This time, the feel-good aura of rags-to-riches glory barely lasted a week until it was revealed that Medina Spirit had tested positive for an overage of betamethasone, an infraction that has still not been adjudicated by state regulators in Kentucky (although it has sparked several high-profile federal lawsuits, CDI's no-Bob stance, and NYRA's attempts to rule off Baffert).

So if the story of the 2022 and 2023 Derbies ends up being the exclusion of Baffert's trainees, what do you suppose might happen if CDI ever decides it has to take action against other allegedly toxic trainers of top colts?

If it turns out that Baffert isn't the only conditioner told he's not welcome under the Twin Spires, the sport could soon be facing a difficult reckoning involving years in which a sizable swath of otherwise-eligible equine stars aren't allowed to participate in the Derby.

There might not be enough asterisks to go around if handicapping every year's foal crop becomes an exercise of exclusion related to which human handlers are deemed not worthy of the Derby.

Similar to baseball's steroids era, Thoroughbred racing is eventually going to have to come to grips with how the present will appear in the future.

Will the current time frame be viewed as an over-reactive witch hunt? Or will it eventually be defined as the era when the industry started cleaning up its act for the betterment of the sport?

Truth tends not to favor one extreme or the other, so the unknown answer to that question most likely lies somewhere in the hazy middle.

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Maximum Security Sires First Foal

Four time Grade I-winning champion Maximum Security (New Year's Day–Lil Indy, by Anasheed) sired his first foal at Dell Ridge Farm this morning when Pussyfoot (Tiznow), a full-sister to Grade I winner Morning Line, foaled a bay filly at 5:39 a.m.

The filly was fittingly bred by Gary and Mary West, who also bred and raced Maximum Security, an earner of over $12 million on the track with wins including the GI Florida Derby, GI Haskell Invitational, GI Cigar Mile H., inaugural Saudi Cup and GI Pacific Classic.

“She's outstanding. She's a big strong foal and is very well put together, I'm delighted with her. We have a lot of Maximum Security foals on the way and if they all look like this we'll be very happy,” said Des Ryan of Dell Ridge Farm.

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Government Recommends Three Years for Rhein

The government has recommended a three-year prison sentence for Kristian Rhein, the veterinarian embroiled in the MediVet Equine practice that marketed and sold “an adulterated and misbranded performance-enhancing drug,” they revealed in papers filed Wednesday in U.S. District Court.

Rhein was one of 27 people charged in a widespread doping scheme of Thoroughbred racehorses on Mar. 9, 2020 that included trainers Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro.

United States Attorney Damian Williams, in papers filed with Judge Mary Kay Vyskocil in her court in the Southern District of New York, wrote, “The parties' stipulated Guidelines sentence is the statutory maximum sentence of 36 months' imprisonment. In light of the Section 3553(a) factors discussed below, that is the appropriate sentence in this case, and one necessary to serve the goals of sentencing. The Government respectfully submits that the stipulated Guidelines sentence of thirty-six months' imprisonment is sufficient, but not greater than necessary, to serve the legitimate purposes of sentencing set forth in Title 18, United States Code, Section 3553(a).”

Williams's sentencing recommendation sums up their case again Rhein as such: “Rhein, a licensed racetrack veterinarian who predominantly catered to racehorse trainers exploited the deference typically offered to licensed veterinarians in order to peddle SGF-1000-in which he held a financial interest-which was not approved by the Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) or created pursuant to “good manufacturing practices,” and the administration of which did not comply with applicable racing rules. Rhein actively marketed, sold, and administered SGF-1000 for the non-medical purpose of illicitly improving racehorse performance. That is, Rhein doped horses in an effort to scam others through a prolific fraud. Rhein, through his veterinary practice, further illegally distributed the prescription drug clenbuterol, providing it to trainers in bulk to administer to their horses, without issuing valid prescriptions for that drug, or otherwise  administering that drug due to a medical need.”

The submission further states that “Rhein and his co-conspirators did not know the precise chemical contents of SGF-1000, yet marketed the product as one containing growth factors, and believed that, irrespective of its contents, it would enhance a horse's performance and be untestable on standard drug tests.”

Rhein has agreed to forfeit a total of $1,021,800, $671,800 of which is due at or before the time of sentencing, which represents the value of the distributed drugs. He has also agreed to pay restitution to other “victims of the offense,” the filing reads, in the amount of $729,716, the total amount of payments he received from owners by concealing his billing for the drugs by billing for acupuncture, among other things. Williams writes that the Government intends to submit a proposed restitution order and a schedule of victims at or before Rhein's sentencing.

Williams's submission details Rhein's attempts to conceal his activities from doping controls.

He writes, “Notably, beginning at least in June 2019, Rhein grew concerned regarding mounting regulatory scrutiny of SGF-1000, and shared this concern with others at MediVet. On June 5, 2019, Jason Servis informed Rhein that Maximum Security had received a dose of SGF-1000 shortly before an unannounced drug test, and Rhein quickly reassured Servis that the drug would not test positive. Rhein stated to Servis: `Yeah no no no the Jockey Club tested it and I met the guy who tested it way back when. It comes back as collagen. They don't even have a test for it. . . . [I]'ve had at least three different times it's been tested on horses that I have it the day before and nothing. Not a word. . . . There's no test for it in America. There's no testing. There's nothing. There's nothing you did that would test.' Rhein—despite not knowing the precise contents of SGF-1000 at that time—nonetheless assuaged Servis's concerns, not by saying SGF-1000 was legal or permissible (which it was not), but by saying SGF-1000 would not be detectable on a drug test. In Rhein's mind, it was immaterial whether he was following the letter of the racing rules or the law, because he believed neither he nor his customers would ever get caught. The following day, Rhein and Servis resumed their discussions of SGF-1000, and Rhein noted his belief that `somebody squealed' regarding his use of that drug.”

As the scrutiny from authorities became greater, Williams writes, “Rather than cease sales of SGF-1000 in the face of this scrutiny, approximately one week after others at MediVet sounded the alarm regarding potential federal charges, Rhein discussed with Kegley how they could tweak the labeling of SGF-1000, so as to make it appear innocuous. Rhein specifically related his suggestion: 'we gotta think of re-branding if it goes sideways.' Rhein brainstormed calling SGF-1000 by a new name: “What was the (expletive deleted) name that somebody told me? It was a good name. It was kinda cheesy, but (expletive deleted) it was a good, it was a one-word name, like . . . you know like . . . like Encore, something like that. . . . Repair . . . RepairRx. Like Repair Treatment . . . And what you do is you just say it's a preventative. It's preventative.” Despite the fact that SGF-1000 is an injectable drug whose precise contents were then-unknown to Rhein, Rhein agreed with Kegley that it should be described as a `dietary supplement for equine.'”

After Rhein learned in 2019 that Servis had been approached by law enforcement, and after the New York Gaming Commission specifically banned it, MediVet representatives provided information to the Racehorse Medication Testing Consortium (RMTC) which did not report the positive findings for low levels of ace promazine and other drugs. “While Rhein was grappling with the existential threats to his sales of SGF-1000, he continued his equally illicit practice of distributing prescription clenbuterol to trainers without issuing valid prescriptions, and concealed that conduct by issuing fraudulent bills concealing costs of clenbuterol that were paid by racehorse owners,” Williams writes.

Rhein pleaded guilty on Aug. 3, 2021. No date for sentencing has been set.

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