Maximum Security | Horse Racing Free Tips

Tom’s D’Etat Stays On Top In Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings

GMB Racing's 7-year-old Tom's d'Etat, winner of the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2), retained the top spot in the latest 2020 Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings, a weekly rating of the top 10 horses in contention for the $7 million Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington on Nov. 7.

The Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings are determined by a panel of leading Thoroughbred racing media, horseplayers and members of the Breeders' Cup Racing Directors/Secretaries Panel. Rankings will be announced each week through October 13. A list of voting members can be found here.

In the Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings, each voter rates horses on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 system in descending order.

Trained by Al Stall Jr., Tom's d'Etat, who is scheduled to run at Saratoga in this Saturday's Whitney (G1), a “Win and You're In” for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), leads all Classic contenders with 312 votes. A bay son of Smart Strike, Tom's d'Etat earned a free berth into the Classic on June 27 when he won the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs.

Gary and Mary West, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith's 4-year-old Maximum Security (272) remains in second place in the Classic Rankings following his dramatic win by a nose over Midcourt in last Saturday's San Diego Handicap (G2) at Del Mar. In his first start for trainer Bob Baffert, the San Diego win was Maximum Security's first race since taking the inaugural $20 million Saudi Cup in February.

W.S. Farish's 4-year-old Code of Honor (219 votes), also a candidate for the Whitney, has switched places with Sackatoga Stable's 3-year-old Tiz the Law (207 votes) in this week's poll. Trained by Shug McGaughey, Code of Honor, now ranked No. 3, won the Westchester Stakes (G3), and finished third in Metropolitan Handicap (G1), in his two starts this year.

Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tiz the Law, ranked fourth, is unbeaten in three starts this year for trainer Barclay Tagg. Tiz the Law, being pointed to the Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1) on Aug. 8, won the Holy Bull (G3) and the Florida Derby (G1) prior to his Belmont Stakes triumph.

Bloom Racing, Madaket Stables and Allen Racing's 5-year-old mare Midnight Bisou (175 votes), the only female in the top 10, remains in fifth place. The Steve Asmussen-trained dark bay daughter of two-time Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) winner Midnight Lute dominated last month's Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill Downs, romping to an 8 ¼-length victory. Midnight Bisou is slated to run in Saturday's Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) at Saratoga.

CRK Stable's 3-year-old Honor A. P. (121 votes) stays in sixth place in this week's rankings. Trained by John Shirrreffs, the dark bay son of Honor Code won the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1) on June 6 in his last start.

Another likely starter for Saturday's Whitney, Allied Racing Stable's By My Standards (118 votes), is next in seventh place. Trained by Bret Calhoun, By My Standards won the New Orleans Handicap (G2) and the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) before finishing second to Tom's d'Etat in the Stephen Foster.

Juddmonte Farms' 4-year-old Tacitus (99 votes) retains eighth place in the Classic Rankings. Trained by Bill Mott, Tacitus rolled to an 8 ¾-length victory in the Suburban Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park on July 4.

WinStar Farm, China Horse Club International and SF Racing's Improbable (82 votes), moves up to ninth place, from 10th this week, switching places with R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stable's Vekoma (69 votes). Trained by Bob Baffert, Improbable, winner of the 1 ¼-mile Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) at Santa Anita on June 6, is headed to Saratoga for Saturday's Whitney.

Rounding out the top 10 is the 4-year-old Vekoma, trained by George Weaver. Vekoma is unbeaten in three starts this year, including wins in Breeders' Cup Challenge Series races, the Runhappy Carter Handicap (G1), for the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), and the Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap (G1), for the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings – July 28, 2020*

RANK	HORSE	TOTAL VOTES	FIRST-PLACE VOTES
1	Tom's d'Etat	312	18
2	Maximum Security	272	9
3	Code of Honor	219	3
4	Tiz the Law	207	1
5	Midnight Bisou	175	2
6	Honor A. P.	121	0
7	By My Standards	118	0
8	Tacitus	99	0
9	Improbable	82	0
10	Vekoma	69	1

*Note – The Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings have no bearing on qualification or selection into the Breeders' Cup Classic.

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Maximum Security Returns To Fourth Position In NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

Champion Maximum Security, who led the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) Top Thoroughbred Poll in early March, has moved back into the top five of the rankings this week following his victory in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap at Del Mar July 25.

In his first start since taking the $20 million Saudi Cup on February 29, Maximum Security showed his grit when he prevailed by a nose over Midcourt in the 1 1/16-miles San Diego Handicap. That effort – which was also his first since joining the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert – earned the 2019 Eclipse Award-winner for champion 3-year-old male 2 first-place votes and 228 points this week, moving him from tenth to fourth overall in the poll standings.

Ranking ahead of Maximum Security is fellow champion Midnight Bisou, who continues to lead the poll with 22 first-place votes and 365 points as she readies for her expected run in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 1. Midnight Bisou worked a half-mile in :50.55 on Monday morning in preparation for her title defense of Saturday's test.

Tom's d'Etat, who is expected to start in Saturday's Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga, holds in second with 10 first-place votes and 335 points while fellow top-level winner Vekoma is third with 2 first-place votes and 294 points.

Zulu Alpha (158 points) sits behind Maximum Security in the fifth position followed by Monomoy Girl, the champion 3-year-old filly of 2018, in sixth with 1 first-place vote and 129 points. By My Standards, who is also slated to start in the Whitney, is seventh with 113 points while top-ranked sophomore Tiz the Law is eighth with 2 first-place votes and 112 points. Mucho Gusto (92 points) and Code of Honor (1 first-place vote, 83 points) round out the top 10.

Less than two weeks from his planned start in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga, Tiz the Law continues to hold a commanding lead in the NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll with 39 first-place votes and 399 total points. Honor A. P., who is set to run in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar on Aug. 1, ranks second with 1 first-place vote and 355 points and is followed by Grade 1 Haskell Stakes victor Authentic (284 points).

Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes winner Art Collector (254 points) and Los Alamitos Derby victor Uncle Chuck (150) sit fourth and fifth, respectively, with Haskell runner-up Ny Traffic (129) in sixth. King Guillermo, winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, ranks seventh with 117 points followed by leading sophomore fillies Gamine (107 points) and Swiss Skydiver (102). Dr Post (100 points) completes the top 10.

The NTRA Top Thoroughbred polls are the sport's most comprehensive surveys of experts. Every week eligible journalists and broadcasters cast votes for their top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis. All horses that have raced in the U.S., are in training in the U.S., or are known to be pointing to a major event in the U.S. are eligible for the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Voting in both the Top Three-Year-Old Poll and the Top Thoroughbred Poll is scheduled to be conducted through the conclusion of the Breeders' Cup in November.

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Baffert On Maximum Security: ‘I Only Had Him About 80 Percent”

Maximum Security was “good” Sunday morning, following an all-out effort for a nose victory at Del Mar in Saturday's Grade 2, $150,000 San Diego Handicap, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert reported.

“I actually thought he was pretty good right after the race being that I only had him about 80 percent,” Baffert said. “I didn't think he'd have to do a stop-and-go movement (during the race) but he showed what a great horse he is.”

Making his first start for Baffert, first in five months, and under new jockey Abel Cedillo, Maximum Security vied with Midcourt for the lead through the first quarter in :23.74, dropped back to third place, 2 ½ lengths behind Midcourt at the half-mile mark, rallied to draw even with an eighth of a mile to go and prevailed by a nose at the end of the 1 1/16-mile race.

“It's a good starting point, we learned a lot about the horse, now we're caught up and he's ready to go,” Baffert said. Rather than “go,” however, Baffert's inclination is to “stay” at Del Mar for the $500,000, Grade 1, 1 1/4-mile TVG Pacific Classic on August 22. Even though there figure to be pressures, subtle and unsubtle, to exercise other options. The Woodward Stakes at Saratoga is the same purse and distance as the Pacific Classic two weeks later on the calendar.

“The Pacific Classic or the Woodward, depending ….but I like the Pacific Classic,” Baffert said. “He brings his racetrack with him. He's got a lot of will to win, he's courageous and a smart horse. There's just something about him, he's got a lot of will to win. He's got a lot of W's by his name and there's a reason for that.”

John Shirreffs, trainer of Midcourt, said his 5-year-old gelding showed no ill effects from a fully game try for a sixth victory in 12 starts.

“We are, of course, very proud of his race,” Shirreffs said via text. “It was a flip of a coin who would hit the wire with his head down.” There are no immediate plans regarding a next race.

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Maximum Security’s Return Doesn’t Answer Many Questions

The Week in Review, by Bill Finley

Just about everyone was prepared to either love or hate the performance of Maximum Security (New Year’s Day) in the GII San Diego H. Saturday at Del Mar. Either he would come back and dominate or he would struggle in his first performance outside of the notorious Jason Servis barn. There didn’t appear to be much room for a gray area.

But that’s where things have landed. He was good enough to win but not so good that he proved beyond any doubt that he is the same horse as he was throughout last year and when winning the $20-million Saudi Cup in February.

The optimist can point to a strangely run race in which Maximum Security set the early pace, was taken back by substitute jockey Abel Cedillo and dropped back to third. That’s not exactly the easiest way to win a race, but Maximum Security had a second run in him and just nipped Midcourt (Midnight Lute) by a nose. He showed a lot of determination. Plus, it was his first race in nearly five months and new trainer Bob Baffert admitted Sunday that he didn’t have Maximum Security fully cranked up.

“I actually thought he was pretty good right after the race being that I only had him about 80%,” Baffert said. “I didn’t think he’d have to do a stop-and-go movement [during the race] but he showed what a great horse he is.”

Baffert added that he considered the San Diego a small step in the process.

“It’s a good starting point, we learned a lot about the horse, now we’re caught up and he’s ready to go,” he said

Yet, it wasn’t unreasonable to expect something better than a nose victory in a Grade II race. This is the horse who was last year’s champion 3-year-old and right after the Saudi Cup was widely considered the best horse in training. The Maximum Security that won the GI Cigar Mile H., the Saudi Cup and crossed the wire first in the GI Kentucky Derby would have crushed the type of horses he faced in the San Diego.

That horse, of course, was trained by Servis, and every time one of his former horses races, everyone is left to wonder if they will perform for new trainers who are not using performance-enhancing drugs.

All of which is why one should neither write Maximum Security off or declare that he is back. There are just too many questions and there is plenty of time for them to be answered.

Baffert mentioned the GI Woodward S. at Saratoga as a possibility for Maximum Security, but it’s much more likely that he will go next in the GI Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Aug. 22.

“He’s got a lot of will to win, he’s courageous and a smart horse,” Baffert said. “There’s just something about him, he’s got a lot of will to win. He’s got a lot of W’s by his name and there’s a reason for that.”

But, for Maximum Security, the goal now goes beyond winning. He needs to not only win the Pacific Classic but to do it impressively and show everyone that he is the one to beat in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic.

As for the San Diego, I’ll give him a B- for a grade. That doesn’t mean there’s not an A+ performance yet to come.

Still No News Out of Saudi Arabia

It’s been 138 days since the running of the Saudi Cup and 129 days since Jason Servis was among a long list of individuals indicted for allegedly doping their horses. That should be more than enough time for Saudi racing officials to have concluded their investigation and determine whether or not Maximum Security will be disqualified and the purse redistributed. The ultimate decision may rest on whether or not any illegal medications were found in Maximum Security’s system after the race, but those tests should have been concluded months ago.

What’s going on? Another week has gone by without any answers.

Here’s what Director of Strategy and International Racing for the Jockey Club Of Saudi Arabia Tom Ryan told the TDN in an email last week: “Work on the Maximum Security investigation continues. At the moment it looks like we will be able to issue an official statement as a means of an update over the next week or so.”

Will Volatile and Vekoma Meet Up?

The expectations for Volatile (Violence) were so high coming into the GI Alfred Vanderbilt S. Saturday at Saratoga that not everyone was raving about his victory. A lot did go his way. Rival Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect) broke through the gate prior to the start, which likely compromised his chances. And Volatile was somehow allowed to set about as slow a pace as you will ever see for a Grade I sprint race. The first quarter went in 23.46 and the half was completed in 46.67 before Volatile won by 1 1/4 lengths.

But that doesn’t mean this wasn’t a test for a horse who had never even run in a graded stakes race before, no less a Grade I. His three opponents had earned a combined $6,091,100 and Volatile beat them decisively. After campaigning Mitole (Eskendereya), who ran an uncharacteristically poor race last year in the Vanderbilt when third, trainer Steve Asmussen may once again have the best sprinter in the country.

But there’s at least one outstanding horse standing between Volatile and an Eclipse Award and that is Vekoma (Candy Ride {Arg}), the winner of the GI Runhappy Carter H. and the Gi Runhappy Metropolitan H. The Aug. 29 GI Forego at Saratoga seems like a logical spot for both Vekoma and Volatile, and if both show up, that may be the race of the meet.

Keeping An Eye on Kentucky’s COVID-19 Situation

For now, spectators will be allowed to attend the Kentucky Derby, but one has to wonder if that is about to change.

Churchill Downs made the announcement June 24 that it has received permission from Governor Andy Beshear to allow fans to attend the Derby week races during a short September meet at Churchill. At the time, the state was doing quite well in its fight against the coronavirus. According to the New York Times, on June 24 there were only 199 new cases of coronavirus in the state. On Sunday, 836 new cases were reported, the second highest total since the outbreak began.

“We’re not playing around with the numbers that we’re seeing,” Beshear said.

Had there been that many cases on a daily basis back in June, it seems highly unlikely that Beshear would have given the green light to having fans. Churchill has said that the amount of people allowed to watch will be limited, but haven’t said what sort of number they are targeting.

Around 50,000 seems like a reasonable estimate, which would be a public gathering that would be unprecedented since COVID-19 became a fact of life. Considering what’s going on, not just in Kentucky but around the country, it’s hard to imagine that happening. Beshear certainly has reason to reverse course.

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