Mark Casse | Horse Racing Free Tips

Streaking Wet Paint Headlines Full Field Drawn for Kentucky Oaks

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Godolphin homebred Wet Paint (Blame), an impressive come-from-behind winner in three straight while sweeping the Oaklawn Park series for 3-year-old fillies headed by the GIII Fantasy S. Apr. 1, was tabbed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite for Friday's GI Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs. Conditioned by two-time Kentucky Oaks-winning trainer Brad Cox, Wet Paint was assigned post seven in the full field of 14. Flavien Prat will ride.

Cox will also saddle impressive Bourbonette Oaks heroine and 4-1 second-choice Botanical (Medaglia d'Oro) (post six), who tries dirt for the first time; and GII Fair Grounds Oaks third-place finisher The Alys Look (Connect) (post two; 15-1).

Cox won the 2018 Oaks with Monomoy Girl and the 2020 Oaks with Shedaresthedevil.

“I thought it was a good draw for all of these fillies,” Cox said. “Botanical and Wet Paint are in the middle of the gate which is fine for both of them. The Alys Look is inside but can work out a trip from there.”

Southlawn (Pioneerof the Nile) (post four; 8-1) figures to receive plenty of tote support following a pair of visually impressive tallies for trainer Norm Casse this term, headed by a 3 1/4-length win over Pretty Mischievous (Into Mischief) (post 14; 10-1) in the Fair Grounds Oaks.

“I think it's a perfect draw,” Casse said. “I played baseball my entire life and I was No. 4. So, it's my lucky number.”

Champion Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief) (post five; 12-1), trained by Norm's father Mark Casse, looks to get back on track following a head-scratching sixth in the GI Ashland S. at Keeneland.

The gone-too-soon Arrogate, responsible for last year's Oak's winner Secret Oath, will be represented by GII Gulfstream Park Oaks heroine Affirmative Lady (Arrogate) (post 13; 10-1) and GII Santa Anita Oaks runner-up And Tell Me Nolies (Arrogate) (post nine; 15-1).

The Oaks field also includes last out 20-1 GI Central Bank Ashland S. upsetter Defining Purpose (Cross Traffic) (post 11; 12-1).

The 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks serves as the highlight of Friday's 13-race program that begins at 10:30 a.m. The Oaks will go as the day's 11th race with a 5:51 p.m. post time.

From the rail out, the complete field for the Kentucky Oaks with morning-line odds:

1-Mimi Kakushi (City of Light) (20-1)

2-The Alys Look (Connect) (15-1)

3-Gambling Girl (Dialed In) (15-1)

4-Southlawn (Pioneerof the Nile) (8-1)

5-Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief) (12-1)

6-Botanical (Medaglia d'Oro) (4-1)

7-Wet Paint (Blame) (5-2)

8-Promiseher America (American Pharoah) (30-1)

9-And Tell Me Nolies (Arrogate) (15-1)

10-Flying Connection (Nyquist) (15-1)

11-Defining Purpose (Cross Traffic) (12-1)

12-Dorth Vader (Girvin) (20-1)

13-Affirmative Lady (Arrogate) (10-1)

14-Pretty Mischievous (Into Mischief) (10-1)

Also-Eligibles: Taxed (Collected) (20-1); Julia Shining (Curlin) (15-1); and Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) (30-1).

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Norm Casse Enjoying the Ride with First Oaks Filly

Norm Casse lived in Louisville throughout most of his childhood, but one spring, he spent a few months in Ocala with his father. Norm was responsible for getting himself up and out the door for school each morning while his dad was busy at the training center.

One morning, as Kentucky Oaks day dawned, Norm's alarm never rang.

It was well into the morning before Mark Casse burst into his son's room in a panic. “Norman, why aren't you at school?” he cried.

“Dad, chill out,” retorted a teenaged Norm. “It's Kentucky Oaks day.”

That was the day that Norm Casse learned that the country's entire school system does not, in fact, shut down for Oaks day.

As a kid, the Kentucky Oaks marked a special occasion for Casse because it meant a Friday away from school in Louisville. Years later, after discovering his own passion for racing, working for his father for a decade, and now having trained on his own for six years, the Kentucky Oaks–and Derby week–has all come to mean so much more.

“I've been coming to the Oaks and Derby every year since 1995,” Casse reflected. “Even when I moved to Canada and worked for Dad up in Woodbine, the only weekend I ever took off was Derby weekend because I didn't want to break that streak. Being born and raised here is the reason why I do it. It's not because my family is involved. It's more because I love the Derby, the Oaks, and the whole week leading up to it.”

This year, Casse will saddle his first starter in one of those famed 3-year-old races with GI Kentucky Oaks contender Southlawn (Pioneerof the Nile). For Casse, who is a third-generation trainer and has already earned multiple graded stakes victories and just under 150 career wins, claiming his first Grade I on Friday would be a pinnacle moment.

“I can't really describe what it would mean to win the Kentucky Oaks,” he said. “All my friends and family are from here. They may not know what the Breeders' Cup Classic or the Pacific Class is, but they know what the Kentucky Oaks is. If we were able to win that, they'd look at me like a rock star.”

Casse comes to the Oaks with a filly that he and his team have always had high hopes for. Southlawn, a $290,000 yearling purchase for Robert Masterson, showed potential early on as a juvenile, but drawing out her true ability in the afternoons proved to be a puzzling task for Casse.

Southlawn takes to the main track at Churchill Downs | Sara Gordon

Southlawn was unplaced in her debut last June, finishing fifth behind none other than Mark Casse's future champion and Oaks contender Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief). After breaking her maiden by five lengths in her second start at Ellis Park, the filly from the final crop of Pioneerof the Nile was never a contender in the GIII Pocahontas S. and she came up empty in two tries on turf in the fall.

“After her last start on the grass here in the fall, we knew she was going to get the winter off,” Casse explained. “Tyler Gaffalione came back and said that she was having a lot of issues with her breathing. We sent her down to the Fair Grounds and we performed a myectomy on her. She's been undefeated ever since.”

The procedure seems to have solved any displacement issues the filly was dealing with as she has returned to the main track this year and has taken her first two sophomore starts by storm. She claimed an allowance at Fair Grounds by eight lengths in February and stamped her domination of the 3-year-old filly ranks in New Orleans with a win in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks.

Casse said that what has impressed him most about Southlawn's sophomore campaign is her developing running style.

“She doesn't have that early speed she had before,” he explained. “Now she makes a big, sustained run, which I think is going to be very beneficial in the Oaks. It just seems to me that she's better off breaking and trying to get a decent position, but then letting her get into her own rhythm and not forcing things too much. I like that she's so kind and professional now that no matter where we are in a race, we're still going to feel comfortable that she is going to run when Reylu asks her to run.”

Reylu Gutierrez, who competed in his first Kentucky Oaks last year, just claimed his first leading rider title at Fair Grounds earlier this year. The up-and-coming jockey has gained even more recognition while riding a hot streak at Keeneland.

“I think one of the storylines that shouldn't go unsaid is that Reylu gets along with her really well,” Casse noted. “He's riding really well right now and he's so confident in her and in how she's training that it gives me a lot of confidence.”

Another essential character in Southlawn's storyline is of course her owner Robert Masterson.

The California-based owner had horses in training with Mark Casse for many years, highlighted by the outstanding two-time champion grass mare Tepin (Bernstein). Tepin was in the Casse barn at the same time that Norm was overseeing much of the stable.

Casse said that working with the talented filly and playing a role in her success at the top of the game, from the 2015 GI Breeders' Cup Mile to the 2016 G1 Queen Anne S., gave him the confidence he needed to go out on his own. When Casse first set up his stable, Masterson was his first–and for a short time, his only–client.

Masterson has been involved in racing for over 40 years and explained why he wanted to support the fledgling trainer back in 2018.

“Norm was the one that really took care of Tepin the whole time she was there,” he said. “When he decided to go out on his own, I just felt an obligation. Everybody needs a shot and I felt like I could be the person to give him a shot. I'm not the guy who is going to have a 40-horse stable, and his father already had all these big owners, so I thought that I could give him four or five horses and that would help him out.”

Picked out by Deuce Greathouse, Southlawn was a $290,000 yearling purchase for Robert Masterson | Sara Gordon

While Casse's success quickly grew in those first few years, Masterson's horses ran through a streak of bad luck. But Masterson stuck with his trainer and was eventually rewarded for his faith with the success of Southlawn.

“We didn't have much luck in the beginning, but it wasn't because of Norm,” Masterson said. “I think he's a really good trainer and a good caretaker of the horse. You're going to look at him five years from now and people are going to go, 'Where'd he come from?'”

Other than horses he owns in partnership, Masterson sends all of his horses to Casse. His stable is off to a fast start in 2023 and Friday could set up to be a monumental day. On top of Southlawn's Oaks bid, Masterson's Grove (Munnings) and New Beat (Not This Time), both 3-year-old fillies coming off maiden wins, are aiming to get into the entries. He also has a juvenile filly named Loveland (Munnings) looking to make her debut.

Masterson, a graduate of the University of Maryland, said that Southlawn is named after a neighborhood in Maryland outside of Washington D.C. He explained that his mother moved to South Lawn to be close to him when he was in college and years later, his first son was born there.

While Masterson hinted at his excitement ahead of Oaks day, noting that this is his first starter in the historic contest, he added that he is hoping for a happy outcome because of the positive implications it would have for Casse, his longtime bloodstock agent Deuce Greathouse, and the filly's many other connections who are making a name for themselves in the industry.

“I've been in the business since 1980 and I've had a lot of great horses so I'm not nervous,” he said. “I just hope she gets all the right chances. We always thought she was really going to be good and when she came back as a 3-year-old, she was a monster.”

Southlawn will face her toughest competition yet on Friday. The rematch of Southlawn with GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Wonder Wheel might be the start of a friendly father-son rivalry at the highest levels of the sport.

“When I went out on my own, my dad kept talking about how he couldn't wait until the day where we starting running against each other in these marquee races,” Casse explained. “So here's our first opportunity and it's a very cool opportunity. I'm just proud of my entire team. I feel like one of the things that we've done right since I went on my own is that I've built a really nice team that I'm confident in. I think they make a big, big difference in the stable and how well we're doing.”

Derby Week brings an unparalleled kind of excitement to the Churchill Downs backside, but Casse said he plans to embrace the hubbub and take in every moment. After all, it's an opportunity he's been dreaming about for years.

“I think the filly is training so incredibly well,” he said. “She looks great and her coat is great. She seems happier than ever and I know we're ready. I'm sure I'm going to be extremely nervous the morning of, but right now I'm just trying to enjoy the ride.”

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Kentucky Oaks Top 10: Strange Year Continues

It continues to be a strange year on the road to the GI Kentucky Oaks. It's been a division where no one seemed ready to step to the front and become a clear leader of the group. That, sort of, changed Sunday in the GIII Santa Ysabel S. Sunday at Santa Anita. Faiza (Girvin) stayed undefeated in four starts with a 2 1/4-length win and, under normal circumstances, would have gone to No. 1 on this list. But the filly, who is trained by Bob Baffert and owned by Michael Lund Petersen, was not nominated to the Oaks and is not eligible to run because she stayed in the Baffert barn beyond the deadline for his horses to move to other trainers to be eligible for Oaks points.

Perhaps someone would emerge from the GII Davona Dale S. at Gulfstream, which included two horses that had been in our Top 10 in Red Carpet Ready (Oscar Performance) and Leave No Trace (Outwork). Red Carpet Ready was a well-beaten third and Leave No Trace was eased. The winner was an impossible longshot, 46-1 shot Dorth Vader (Girvin) .

The bottom-line? With nine weeks to go, the division is in disarray and the Kentucky Oaks is anyone's race.

1) WONDER WHEEL (f, Into Mischief–Wonder Gal, by Tiz Wonderful) O-D. J. Stable LLC. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC & Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $275,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly & MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,570,725. Last Start: 2nd Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 11. Kentucky Oaks Points: 48.

Despite the loss at 1-2 in her 3-year-old debut in the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs, Wonder Wheel's connections remain high on their filly.

“As far as her training, she's been breezing and training outstandingly well,” said Jon Green, the general manager of DJ Stable. “That race at Tampa really tightened her up. It served exactly the purpose we wanted. We would have liked to have won, but the main goal was to get her sea legs back under her and make it to the [GI Apr. 7] Ashland and the Oaks will be next on the agenda.”

Green said Wonder Wheel will be transferred from trainer Mark Casse's training center to Keeneland about two weeks before the Ashland.

“That's her home track,” he said. “She loves racing and training there. She will remain there after the Ashland right up until the Oaks.”

In most any other year, the loss in the Suncoast would have knocked her out of the top spot, but with no one else among the top contenders stepping up so far this year, she remains our No. 1 and she is the morning line favorite at 8-1 in the Oaks Future Wager.

2) HOOSIER PHILLY (f, Into Mischief–Tapella, by Tapit) O-Gold Standard Racing Stable, LLC. B-Candy Meadows, LLC (Ky). T-Thomas Amoss. Sales history: $510,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $462,610. Last Start: 3rd GII Rachel Alexandra S. at Fair Grounds Feb. 18. Kentucky Oaks Points: 25.

It's still hard to know what to make of her third-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra S., presented by Fasig-Tipton. She looked nothing like the filly who was so electrifying when going 3-for-3 as a 2-year-old. If she repeats her effort from the Rachel Alexandra in her next start, she can't be considered a serious threat in the Oaks. But if she runs back to her 2-year-old form, she'll likely be the favorite and the horse to beat. She returned to the work tab Mar. 2, breezing four furlongs in :47.60 at the Fair Grounds. She's 15-1 in the Oaks Future Wager. It's way too early to give up on her.

3) PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (f, Into Mischief–Pretty City Dancer, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brendan P. Walsh. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-4-0-1, $421,310. Last Start: Won GII Rachel Alexandra S. at Fair Grounds Feb. 18. Kentucky Oaks Points: 63.

Moves up three spots in our poll, but only because there have been so many defections. Off her win in the GII Rachel Alexandra S., Pretty Mischievous belongs near the top of the list. But she's going to have to prove that she can do it again as she posted the upset that day at odds of 8-1. Her lone defeat came in the GII Golden Rod S. last fall at Churchill Downs, where she finished third, 5 1/4 lengths behind Hoosier Philly. She has been ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, who also has the mount on Wonder Wheel, so trainer Brendan Walsh may need a new jockey when she makes her next start in either the Ashland or Mar. 25 GII Fair Grounds Oaks.

4) JULIA SHINING (f, Curlin–Dreaming of Julia, by A.P. Indy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-1, $204,075. Last Start: 3rd Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 11. Kentucky Oaks Points: 16.

With Julia Shining, it's more about what she might be able to do than what she has done. She did win the GII Demoiselle S. last year, but she didn't have a lot of punch when third in the Suncoast S., earning an 81 Beyer figure. That was an 11-point improvement over the figure she got in the Demoiselle. She's by Curlin and is a full-sister to last year's champion older filly Malathaat, all of which suggests she will keep getting better and better. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been going easy on her in the mornings. Her most recent work came Mar. 2 at Palm Beach Downs, where she went a half-mile in :51.68 ahead of an expected next start in the Ashland.

5) AND TELL ME NOLIES (f, Arrogate–Be Fair, by Exchange Rate) O-Peter Redekop B.C., Ltd. B-Lara Run, LLC (Ky). T-Peter Miller. Sales history: $70,000 yrl '21 KEEJAN; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-0, $392,800. Last Start: Second in GIII Santa Ysabel S. at Santa Anita Mar. 5. Kentucky Oaks Points: 30.

And Tell Me Nolies returned to the races in the Santa Ysabel after an eighth-place finish in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and ran well enough to crack the Top 5. She was second, beaten 2 1/4 lengths by Faiza, but with Faiza skipping the Oaks an argument can be made that And Tell Me Nolies is the top threat in the race among Southern California-based horses. She proved her class last year with wins in the GI Del Mar Debutante and the GII Chandelier S. for trainer Peter Miller. Like several other top Oaks candidates, she's just not that fast. The 78 Beyer she earned in the Santa Ysabel was the best number of her career. She is expected to make her next start in the Apr. 8 GII Santa Anita Oaks.

6) THE ALYS LOOK (f, Connect–Foul Play, by Harlan's Holiday) O-Ike & Dawn Thrash. B-G. Watts Humphrey (Ky). T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $60,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-1-1, $150,528. Last Start: Won Silverbulletday S. at Fair Grounds Jan. 21. Kentucky Oaks Points: 24.

The Alys Look may be the best of the four or five horses Brad Cox has in the conversation for the Oaks. Purchased for just $60,000 at Keeneland September, she will have had more than two months off when she makes her next expected start in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks Mar. 25. When last seen, she won the Silverbulletday S., presented by Fasig-Tipton Jan. 21 at the Fair Grounds. It's worth noting that in her prior start she was second behind Pretty Mischievous in the Untapable S. She was dismal in her lone start at Churchill, losing a maiden race by 15 3/4 lengths, but the race was in the slop. She breezed five furlongs in 1:00.20 last Saturday at the Fair Grounds.

7) WET PAINT (f, Blame–Sky Painter, by Street Cry {Ire}) O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $334,100. Last Start: Won GIII Honeybee S. at Oaklawn Feb. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 70.

Wet Paint is the overall Kentucky Oaks points leader. Another horse from the Cox barn, she's on a roll. After winning the Martha Washington S. at Oaklawn, she looked good winning the GIII Honeybee S. by three lengths Feb. 25 at Oaklawn.

“She improved yesterday,” Cox said after the Honeybee. “Had to pass more fillies and won going away. Very impressive with the gallop out. A mile and an eighth, with her pedigree, is something she should be able to handle. We'll see how it goes.”

Wet Paint has lost on the grass and on the Tapeta surface at Turfway Park, but is 3-for-3 on the dirt. She hasn't been beating world-beaters, but has a nice late kick and being in the Cox barn is an obvious plus. She is expected to start next in the Ashland.

8) SHIDABHUTI (f, Practical Joke–A. P. Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Peter Brant. B-Gabriel Duignan & Gerry Dilger (Ky). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $77,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $310,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $189,600. Last Start: Won Busher S. at Aqueduct Mar. 4. Kentucky Oaks Points: 50.

Shidabhuti is an interesting newcomer to the list from the Chad Brown barn. She broke her maiden at Monmouth in September and then came back to win an allowance race in December at Aqueduct. The knock on her coming into the Mar. 4 Busher Invitational S. at Aqueduct was her numbers. She had run a pair of 62 Beyers in her first two starts, way too slow to win a race like the Oaks. But she passed the test in the Busher, staying undefeated after beating stablemate and race favorite Asset Purchase (Dialed In). Brown and owner Peter Brant are best known for their turf horses, but in Shidabhuti they may have a dirt runner to be reckoned with. She is expected to make her next start in the Apr. 7 GIII Gazelle S.

9) DREAMING OF SNOW (f, Jess's Dream–Snow Fashion, by Old Fashioned) O-Team Equistaff, LLC & Winning Stables, Inc. B-Karyn Philipp (FL). T-Gerald Bennett. Sales history: $35,000 yrl '21 OBSOCT; $60,000 2yo '22 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-3-0-0, $170,850. Last Start: Won Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Feb. 11. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20.

The key race this year so far on the road to the Oaks? You can make a case that it was the Jan. 14 Gasparilla S. at Tampa Bay Downs. Dreaming of Snow finished fourth in that spot and came back to win the Suncoast over Wonder Wheel at 38-1. Dorth Vader finished sixth in the Gasparilla and came back to win the Davona Dale at 46-1.

Dreaming of Snow's win in the Suncoast was a shocker, pulled off by trainer Gerald Bennett, mainly known as a claiming trainer. Was it a fluke or is she for real? We'll find out in her next start, which is expected to be in the Apr. 1 GIII Fantasy S.

10) BOTANICAL (f, Medaglia d'Oro–Daisy, by Blame) O-LNJ Foxwoods & Clearsky Farms. B-Clearsky Farms & Godolphin (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $220,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-3-1-0, $196,610. Last Start: Won Cincinnati Trophy S. at Turfway Mar. 4. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20.

Botanical is a tough read. She's won three straight, including a blowout 6 1/2-length win in the Cincinnati Trophy S. at Turfway. The problem is that she has never run on the dirt, having had three races on the synthetic and two more on the turf. Can she transfer that form to the dirt? It's anybody's guess. Cox reports that she will stay on the synthetic for her next start when she goes in Turfway's Mar. 25 Bourbonette Oaks, but said he does consider her a Kentucky Oaks prospect.

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The Week in Review: ‘Angel’ Aided by Pace Meltdown, but Overall Derby ‘Empire’ Still Hazy

Saturday's running of the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds seems unlikely to produce a colt of the caliber of the race's namesake. In 1988, Risen Star captivated New Orleans as the hometown horse owned by charismatic connections, parlaying a win in the then-GIII Louisiana Derby to Grade I scores in both the Preakness S. and Belmont S. before being voted 3-year-old champion colt at year's end.

But $29.40 upset winner Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) at least fits the bill as a hard-trying underdog you can root for.

On a GI Kentucky Derby trail studded with million-dollar horses, the winner of the Feb. 18 nine-furlong leg of the Fair Grounds sophomore series is a Pennsylvania foal who was bred by Forgotten Land Investment and Black Diamond Equine.

He RNA'd for $32,000 at KEENOV, then hammered for $70,000 at KEESEP for owner Albaugh Family Stables.

Angel of Empire's only two previous victories had come at Horseshoe Indianapolis, although he had most recently finished second, beaten three lengths, in the Oaklawn stakes named after the most prolific Pennsylvania-bred of all time, Smarty Jones.

Congratulations if you managed to sniff out Angel of Empire one week ago, when he closed at 112-1 odds in Pool 4 of the Derby Future Wager.

Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Luis Saez, Angel of Empire capitalized on an old-fashioned pace meltdown to win by a length in 1:51.47. That equates to the slowest clocking of the Risen Star in five runnings (including a spilt division in 2020) since that stakes was extended to nine furlongs from 1 1/16 miles. The Beyer Speed Figure was 87, two points higher than the colt's runner-up effort in his previous start.

Even before the starter sprang the latch, the projected hot pace on paper loomed as the $400,000 question in the Risen Star.

The speed-centric 'TDN Rising Star' Victory Formation (Tapwrit), the 9-5 favorite, was drawn way out wide in post 13. West Coast invader Harlocap (Justify), the 7-1 third choice, rolled into New Orleans with plenty of “1s” in his running lines. The pesky 25-1 Determinedly (Cairo Prince) was drawn inside of both those rivals. He was supposed to be aiming for shorter races as per his connections, but when no suitable race could be found, trainer Mark Casse decided to give him a shot at 1 1/8 miles, with an aim on letting him rip right to the front and see how far he could lead the field.

Those three scrambled for supremacy just necks apart the first time under the finish wire in the early-evening New Orleans darkness. By the time they hit the backstretch, Determinedly had the lead by 1 1/2 lengths, with Harlocap and Victory Formation both backing off a beat, but still very much fixated on the frontrunner.

At this juncture, Saez was content to keep Angel of Empire parked at the fence. But by the half-mile pole, he sensed the pace would be too taxing for the leaders to maintain, and he began slicing through the pack while maneuvering off the inside.

“The key with him is to follow the right horse,” Saez would say post-win. “We got lucky. When he got to the three-eighths pole, I was pretty loaded. When we got to the top of the straight, I checked if I had the horse. He just kept going, and I just tried to go with him.”

There aren't too many 14-horse fields in the Derby prep series, so it was particularly intriguing to see a line of about eight horses still in it to win it by the upper portion of the long Fair Grounds home straight.

But by the final sixteenth, most of those contenders had faded away like exhausted Mardi Gras revelers, and Angel of Empire chugged by them all with a well-timed late run.

While Angel of Empire's winning final time was slow compared to previous Risen Star runnings, his final furlong of :12.95 was respectable compared to this year's peers. There have been only three nine-furlong Derby qualifying points races so far in 2022-23, and his effort represents the only sub :13 clocking.

State of the Sophomore Division

So we've now reached the 75-day mark to the first Saturday in May. Here's how the state of the 3-year-old division shakes out.

Two clear leaders sit atop the sophomore totem pole. Depending on who's doing the ranking, 'TDN Rising Stars' Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo) and Forte (Violence) are one-two in either order on almost everyone's list.

I've got Arabian Knight slotted on top in the newest installment of the TDN Derby Top 12 that will be published in Wednesday's edition. He's occupied the kingpin spot since the rankings initially got published at the start of January, based at first on his blowout MSW unveiling on the Breeders' Cup undercard, then bolstered by his commanding, control-seizing performance in the slop in the GIII Southwest S.

You can certainly make a strong case for Forte, too, although you'd have to do so without the benefit of having seen him race yet this year. His clout is based on a trio of Grade I wins at age two, including one in the deepest key race of the division in 2022 (the Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland) and another in his Breeders' Cup Juvenile smackdown that earned him the Eclipse Award championship.

Right behind the top two, 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit) has arguably delivered the single most empathic divisional win since January, an eight-length blowout in a one-turn-mile, first-level allowance at Gulfstream Feb. 4. That assertive effort whets the appetite for what this gray might accomplish when his distance-friendly Tapit (out of a Dunkirk mare) pedigree gets tasked with a two-turn assignment.

But beyond that? The ice remains thin on the Derby prospect pond in late February. There are plenty of horses clustered close together who have posted singularly impressive efforts and could be on the verge of further breakout races. But most of them are very light on actual racing experience, making it a dicey proposition to try and embrace any of them with confidence at this juncture.

In general, the balance of power is centered in Florida (particularly for Todd Pletcher's stable) and California (where a court order from last week will likely result in a number of high-level Bob Baffert trainees shifting to other conditioners).

The Derby preps at Fair Grounds, Aqueduct, and Tampa haven't produced any explosive, top-tier contenders yet. Although Oaklawn's Southwest S. yielded Arabian Knight, he's not nominated to this Saturday's GII Rebel S.

Thinking 'Long Range'

Long Range Toddy (Take Charge Indy) earned a footnote in Derby history back in 2019 when, as a 54-1 longshot already beginning to fade on the far turn, he was forced to check sharply as part of chain-reaction crowding that the Churchill Downs stewards deemed to have been caused by first-across-the-wire Maximum Security.

That incident resulted in the first and only disqualification of a Derby winner for an in-race foul when Maximum Security was placed behind Long Range Toddy, who ended up 17th under the wire.

Now, nearly four years later, Long Range Toddy is one of only three remaining horses from that oddball 2019 Derby to still be racing. (Can you name the other two? Answer below.)

But his streak of longevity is striking for what he hasn't done since before the Derby–win a race.

It's also amazing that the 7-year-old has garnered $1,194,670 in lifetime purse earnings without ever being sent postward as the betting favorite in 35 lifetime races.

On Saturday, in the GIII Razorback H. at Oaklawn, Long Range Toddy checked in sixth at 54-1 odds, adding another $9,000 to his bankroll.

For a large chunk of his career Long Range Toddy was campaigned by his breeder, Willis Horton. Owner Zenith Racing acquired him in the spring of 2022.

Ironically, the horse who beat him in the Razorback, Last Samurai (Malibu Moon), is owned by the limited liability company Willis Horton Racing (Horton himself died at 82 last October).

Long Range Toddy last visited the winner's circle in the 2019 Rebel S. at Oaklawn, which was two prep races prior to his brush with infamy in the Kentucky Derby.

The other two alums from the 2019 Derby to still be in training are Tax (Arch), who won a Delaware stakes last summer off a 1 1/2-year layoff (he's now based out of Palm Meadows with one race at Gulfstream this year), and Gray Magician (Graydar), who on Feb. 8 won a $25,000 claimer at Turf Paradise for his first victory since Oct. 10, 2019.

The post The Week in Review: ‘Angel’ Aided by Pace Meltdown, but Overall Derby ‘Empire’ Still Hazy appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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