Make Believe (GB) | Horse Racing Free Tips

Knicks Go, Charlatan Battle in the Desert

Knicks Go (Paynter) and Charlatan (Speightstown), a pair of major forces headlining the American racing scene in 2020, take on 12 others in Saturday's $20-million Saudi World Cup at King Abdulaziz Racecourse outside Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Both Grade I winners in their latest starts, the pair represent two of America's leading trainers, Brad Cox, who took home his first Eclipse Award last season, and Bob Baffert, a 2020 finalist who had previously annexed four training titles.

Knicks Go, winner of the 2018 GI Breeders' Futurity S. while under the care of Ben Colebrook, marked his debut for Cox and Korea Racing Authority in 2020 with a victory in an 8 1/2-furlong optional claimer at Oaklawn last February. Off for the ensuing seven months, the grey romped by 10 1/4 lengths in a Keeneland optional claimer in October before posting an emphatic win in the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at the Lexington oval Nov. 7. Well supported for his 2021 bow in the Jan. 23 GI Pegasus World Cup Invitational S. at Gulfstream, the Maryland bred once again proved best, winning by 2 3/4 lengths.

Knicks Go was keen during a 1600-meter gallop Friday morning under assistant trainer Dustin Dugas.

“He loves to train and is so difficult to handle sometimes,” Dugas said. “But he has a lot of talent, obviously, and is sitting on a big race. He's very, very fast and is extremely tough.”

It wouldn't be a big-money event without a Baffert-conditioned runner, and the Hall of Fame trainer is represented by the lightly-raced Charlatan in the latest renewal of the nine-furlong Saudi Cup. In his latest work prior to leaving the U.S., the chestnut completed seven furlongs in 1:24.60 at Santa Anita Feb. 7.

“[Charlatan] is doing well,” Baffert told the TDN. “He has a great mind and is getting over the track well. We feel good about our chances, but they still have to get around there. I love the way he worked when he left here. I didn't do much with him there, just a light little half [mile]. He was ready to run.”

An impressive winner in his first two starts at Santa Anita last winter, the SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Racing and Stonestreet Stables runner finished first but was demoted to ninth after testing positive for a banned substance in the May 2 GI Arkansas Derby before being forced to the sidelines with a minor ankle injury. The colt returned to action with a brilliant score in the Dec. 26 GI Malibu S. at Santa Anita.

Accompanied by Mike Smith, Charlatan drew post 9, while Knicks Go–who will be partnered by Joel Rosario–will exit stall five.

“He has to break well, but he has a nice post,” said Baffert. “Knicks Go is in there [and] Charlatan likes a target. [In the Malibu], he had [SW] Nashville [Speightstown] as his target and that worked out alright. It is a mile-and-an-eighth, but that long stretch gets demanding in the final sixteenth. There are good horses in there.”

No stranger to Riyadh, Prince A A Faisal's Mishriff (Ire) (Make Believe {GB}) was second in last season's Saudi Derby and will try to go one better in this year's Cup.

Jockey David Egan, who was in the irons in the Saudi Derby, has been aboard the 4-year-old for the last three mornings at track work.

“Similar to last year, Mishriff has been thriving since he arrived here in Riyadh,” he said. “He seems to really enjoy the style of training and the surface here in Saudi Arabia. He looks amazing, feels fresh and has been moving fluently up to the race.”

Following his Saudi sojourn, the Irish bred reeled off three consecutive victories over the summer, including Chantilly's G1 Prix du Jockey Club and the G2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano at Deauville. He finished eighth in his latest start in Newmarket's G1 Qipco Champion S. in October.

“Mishriff looks stronger again since I saw him in Newmarket at the end of last year and he has traveled extremely well,” said Ted Voute, racing manager to Prince A A Faisal. “He has thrived over the winter. He looks well and ready for the race.”

He added, “David said he changed legs easily going into the turns and was a natural from that point of view. We're looking forward to the race.”

Japan offers a worthy contender in Chuwa Wizard (Jpn) (King Kamehameha {Jpn}). Last December's G1 Champions Cup winner enjoyed an easy canter on the dirt track before a gate-schooling session Friday.

“He shipped to Dubai last year [for the Dubai World Cup Carnival], but had to fly back to Japan due to the cancellation of the race meetings. I think the travel experiences helped him a lot this time,” explained trainer Ryuji Okubo. “Last year, he lost 10 kg during the trip to Dubai, but this year he only lost 4 kg when he flew into Saudi Arabia. He is enjoying it here and is feeling really good. He is a very straightforward horse.”

Asked about his charge's inside post position, Okubo added, “He will start from barrier one, so we can make ground all the way through the race. I understand the American horses are very fast, but I expect Chuwa Wizard can track them and overtake them with his strong closing speed.”

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Mishriff Training Well for Saudi Cup

French Group 1 winner Mishriff (Ire) (Make Believe {GB}), who ran second in the 2020 Saudi Derby in Riyadh on Feb. 29, needs a wide draw in the Feb. 20 $20-million Saudi Cup according to trainer John Gosden. The colt rebounded with a win in the Listed Newmarket S. on June 6 and won the G1 Prix du Jockey Club on July 5. His final win of the year was a victory in the G2 Prix Guillaume de Ornano at Deauville on Aug. 15 before an eighth in the G1 QIPCO Champions S. at Ascot in mid-October. The 4-year-old carries the colours of Prince Faisal and will be ridden by his retained jockey David Egan.

“He worked nicely going into it, but first time on the dirt, you never know. He did have the benefit of a wide draw last year and we were thrilled the way he ran,” Gosden told a Saudi Cup press conference. “I think he's a mile-and-a-quarter horse, very much so. He's got a great stride, great tactical speed and a powerful finish. I think that is his perfect trip. Whether we stretch him out to a mile and a half one day, I don't know.”

“This race is run on the dirt and at a very different tempo. You need a wide draw,” he said. “If it was a mile and quarter it would suit us a lot better, but it's very fast. The Americans go hard and it's not a race with any hiding places. He's had a nice down time building up to this. He's a genuine horse, he enjoys his training. He's not a horse who requires a massive amount of work, so to that extent he's the right type to get ready early in the year.”

Frankie Dettori will be aboard Global Giant (GB) (Shamardal) for Gosden in the Middle Distance Turf Cup. They were second in the Bahrain International Trophy last November.

“He came back in great order and breezed nicely this [Wednesday] morning,” Gosden added. “The horse was as frustrated as the jockey and the owner and the trainer, but he got too far back and got there too late. The wire came up a stride and a half too soon, but that's racing. He's fine, he's going for the Middle Distance. It will be a tough race. Distance-wise it's probably the top end of his range. He's got a very good chance and he's in good form right now.”

Gosden will also take another crack at the Saudi Derby and will send G3 Round Tower S. hero New Treasure (Ire) (New Approach {Ire}). The newly gelded chestnut was acquired for 90,000gns by Voute Sales on behalf of Najd Stud out of the Tattersalls Autumn HIT Sale after being sold by breeder/owner/trainer Jim Bolger.

“He was in the horses-in-training sale and Jim was selling, so you have to have a sense of reality about that. He didn't go for a great deal of money,” said Gosden. “The horse came here and the owners wanted to aim him at this race. “He won a Group 3 over six furlongs on soft ground. He's not run over a mile before, but we're hopeful he'll get it. He's on a one-way ticket. He races and stays there to race with the local horses. He's very genuine and is a giver. He's a fun horse to run in the race and it a great way of going down there–a Group 3 winner and going for the Saudi Derby.”

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From the Experts: Hubert Honore

On the back of the eagerly anticipated stallion fee announcements in Europe, Emma Berry spoke with a number of leading industry figures about value. Today we hear from Hubert Honoré.

EB: Who have you identified as a first-year stallion at an appealing opening fee?

HH: Sottsass (Fr), at €30,000, is very good value for what he’s done; he was a very consistent horse. Also Wooded (Ire) was a good sprinter who was very well trained and he will get a good chance. He’s not too dear at €15,000.

EB: Best value proven stallion, and why?

HH: I am a fan of Make Believe (GB). I also think Mehmas (Ire) is good value, even though he’s now standing for three times more than he was. I think he will be a hell of a horse. In the U.S., I would also mention Summer Front, a son of War Front, who gets a lot of winners for the mares he has covered.

EB: Who would you consider to be an under-the-radar stallion?

HH: Here I would name two horses who have come to France who have been elsewhere before. Dream Ahead is not a commercial stallion but he is a very consistent stallion and I like him a lot. Lawman (Fr) is also still a very interesting horse who has been quite overlooked lately. On a much smaller scale, I would also say that Stormy River (Fr) has always been a good stallion who is underrated. It is hard for a horse if he isn’t getting the best mares. In this business a horse has to be good in the first two years otherwise he gets rejected.

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From the Experts: Joseph Burke

On the back of the eagerly anticipated stallion fee announcements in Europe, Gary King spoke with a number of leading industry figures about value. Today we hear from Joseph Burke.

GK: Who have you identified as a first-year stallion at an appealing opening fee?

JB: I must admit that whilst I have not inspected any of the first-season sires yet, on paper I expected Earthlight (Ire) (Shamardal) to be standing for a little more than €20,000. So I booked one of our better mares to him, a Group 3-winning 2-year-old currently carrying her second foal to Night Of Thunder (Ire), as soon as I read about his fee via a TDN alert whilst in Lexington. For a horse who finished his career rated just two pounds behind another leading 2-year-old and freshman son of Shamardal in Pinatubo (Ire), it would appear the value lies with Earthlight given that Pinatubo has been pitched at £35,000.

Kameko (Kitten’s Joy) is also very competitively priced at £25,000 and I would definitely be using him were it not for the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Breeding is difficult enough without all the hassle Brexit could potentially entail next season, something the chair of Britain’s Thoroughbred Industries Steering Group confirmed when he advised members “not to schedule movements for the first two weeks of 2021.” Nevertheless, Kameko has to rate a very attractive prospect for breeders with mares based in England.

In the U.S. we have booked two mares to Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}) whom I think is comfortably the best value first-season sire over there for 2021, priced at $30,000.

GK: Best value proven stallion, and why?

JB: To me this is a no-brainer. In the breeding game, the evidence is often there in black and white for anybody willing to do their own independent research and place a lot of stock in statistics. That said, a mere glance is all that’s needed at the second-crop sire’s results for 2020 illustrates that Make Believe (GB) (Makfi {GB}) is the only stallion to have sired a Group 1 winner in Mishriff (Ire), and not just any ordinary top level winner but a Classic winner who has inherited his sire’s turn of foot. Mishriff is the shortest price of any English-trained horse to take next year’s Arc, a trip he might possibly get as a 4-year-old.

Make Believe has also sired three individual group winners including the multiple Group 3 winner Rose Of Kildare (Ire). He’s a correct horse whom you can rely upon to throw a good physical. Oghill House Stud sold the full-brother to Rose Of Kildare for 175,000gns at Book 2 this year, and he is priced at €15,000.

From a commercial perspective, it is essential to go to stallions who don’t cover huge books and with that in mind, Ballylinch manages him very well which gives breeders a better opportunity to earn a decent return in the sales ring. In fact, when you look at the overall sire list, of those with more than three winners in 2020, no other living stallion in GB or Ireland has a higher percentage of winners-to-runners this year, not a single one. He has a pretty outstanding 47% strike rate with 28 winners from 59 runners. In his short career thus far, he is outperforming his contemporaries on every level and most of the established sires as well. As the clock at the old Curragh racecourse famously stated ‘Time discloses all’, but I don’t think one requires hindsight to see that Make Believe is the best-value proven sire who is only going one way.

In the U.S., Twirling Candy (Candy Ride {Arg}) at $40,000 and Munnings (Speightstown) at $50,000 appeal in this category.

GK: Who would you consider to be an under the radar stallion?

JB: Elzaam (Aus) (Redoute’s Choice {Aus}) has an overall strike rate of 42% winners-to-runners and has sired 12 stakes horses including the G1 Matron S. winner on Irish Champions Weekend, as well as the runner-up in the Hong Kong Derby. Yet Elzaam is available at just €5,000 for 2021. I think that is surely the definition of under the radar.

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