Luis Saez | Horse Racing Free Tips

Saturday Racing Insights: Second-Crop Sires Continue Their First-Crop Battle At Keeneland

2nd-KEE, $100K, Msw, 3yo, 7f, 1:05 p.m.
At the end of last year, it was Bolt d'Oro (Medaglia d'Oro) that reigned supreme over Good Magic (Curlin) and Justify (Scat Daddy) in the first-crop sire race when Spendthrift's own sewed up the title by more than $275,000 in world-wide earnings.

Now second-croppers, they come together in Race 2 at Keeneland for another battle on Saturday. Bred by WinStar Farm and trained by Todd Pletcher, LE BAR (Bolt d'Oro) carries the flag for the 2022 first-crop leader and is part of a female family which includes GSW Emotional Kitten (Kitten's Joy). Ridden by Luis Saez, the bay colt was a $350,000 Ylg FTNAUG purchase up at Saratoga in 2021 for Starlight and Harrell Ventures.

He will face-off against Good Magic's EQUIVOQUE, an Ontario bred out of Unreachable (Giant's Causeway) who is responsible for Japanese star Lemon Pop (Lemon Drop Kid), victor in the G1 February S. Second dam Harpia (Danzig) is a full-sister to G1SW Danehill. The chestnut colt, who sold outright to the CHC for $240,000 '22 KEENOV after partnering with Gandharvi when they bought him for $325,000 as a yearling at the FTNAUG sale, is also trained by Pletcher. Irad Ortiz will pilot when he breaks from the extreme outside.

Not to be left out, Justify is represented by Dixiana homebred JUST A PHOTO. The dark bay colt is the first to make the races for his mare Photographer (War Front), whose second dam MGSW Hostess (Chester House) is a half-sister to Pretty 'n Smart (Beau Genius). She is responsible for Santa Anita GI Gold Cup hero, Cupid (Tapit). From post nine, jockey Brian Hernandez has the call for trainer Kenny McPeek. TJCIS PPS

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Arrogate’s Affirmative Lady Upsets Gulfstream Park Oaks

A year after Secret Oath gave her late sire Arrogate a first winner of the GI Kentucky Oaks, the stallion looks to have a legitimate chance to add to that total posthumously in the form of Affirmative Lady (Arrogate), who made multiple runs to cause an 8-1 upset in Saturday's GII Gulfstream Park Oaks.

A breakthrough maiden winner with first-time blinkers over track and trip at first asking Feb. 26, the AMO Racing USA colorbearer got a good spot at the fence through the early exchanges as Flakes (Frosted) took advantage of her innermost draw to set the pace from Infinite Diamond (Bee Jersey) and a three-wide last out GII Davona Dale S. upsetter Dorth Vader (Girvin).

Quietly ridden down the backstretch by Luis Saez, Affirmative Lady had about three lengths to find entering the turn and was ridden aggressively inside of a weakening Infinite Diamond to be in striking position turning for home. Pulled out into the three path, she found yet another gear and raced over the top of rivals en route to a two-length victory over a game Sacred Wish (Not This Time). Flakes held for third, while Dorth Vader could do no better than fourth.

“When she broke her maiden here five weeks ago, I thought it was really impressive and the timing was good,” winning trainer Graham Motion said. “I think she really wants to go further. I think she'll really appreciate a mile and an eighth, to be honest.”

Affirmative Lady came within a neck of earning her diploma at third asking in the GII Demoiselle S. at Aqueduct Dec. 3 and added a third-place finish, still as a maiden, in the Busanda S. in South Ozone Park Jan. 14. She recorded co-career high 70 Beyer Speed Figures in the Demoiselle and her last-out maiden victory.

Affirmative Lady earned 100 points in the Gulfstream Park Oaks to seal her spot in the starting gate for the GI Kentucky Oaks.

“There's a big race going a mile and an eighth in May, so we'll think about that,” Motion said. “Look, if she comes out of it OK, we have to [run]. That's what she wants to do.”

Pedigree Notes:

Affirmative Lady, a $210,000 KEESEP yearling turned $400,000 OBS April breezer (:10 2/5), becomes the seventh stakes/fifth graded winner for the gone-too-soon Arrogate. Broodmare sire Stephen Got Even is now responsible for 17 stakes/five graded winners. MSW & MGSP Stiffed, a $320,000 purchase by Affirmative Lady's breeder Alastar Thoroughbred Co. while in foal to Pioneerof the Nile at the 2018 KEENOV sale, produced a filly by Nyquist in 2021 ($170,000 KEESEP yearling) and a filly by Connect this year.

Saturday, Gulfstream Park
GULFSTREAM PARK OAKS PRESENTED BY FANDUEL TV-GII,
$255,000, Gulfstream, 4-1, 3yo, f, 1 1/16m, 1:44.69, ft.
1–AFFIRMATIVE LADY, 122, f, 3, by Arrogate
          1st Dam: Stiffed (MSW & MGSP, $256,559), by Stephen
                Got Even
          2nd Dam: High Noon Nellie, by Silver Deputy
          3rd Dam: Full and Fancy, by Marfa
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($210,000
Ylg '21 KEESEP; $400,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR). O-AMO Racing
USA; B-Alastar Thoroughbred Co, LLC (KY); T-H. Graham
Motion; J-Luis Saez. $150,350. Lifetime Record: 6-2-1-2,
$270,568. Werk Nick Rating: B+. Click for the eNicks report &
5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com
catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Sacred Wish, 122, f, 3, Not This Time–Indian Wish, by Indian
Charlie. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($80,000
Wlg '20 KEENOV; $70,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP; $50,000 2yo '22
EASMAY). O-Black Type Thoroughbreds, Swinbank Stables,
Steve Adkisson, Christopher T. Dunn and Anthony Spinazzola;
B-John R. Penn (KY); T-George Weaver. $48,500.
3–Flakes, 122, f, 3, Frosted–Tell a Great Story, by Bluegrass Cat.
1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($50,000 2yo '22
OBSAPR). O-BC Racing LLC; B-Arindel (FL); T-Juan Alvarado.
$29,250.
Margins: 2, HD, NK. Odds: 8.50, 9.10, 30.50.
Also Ran: Dorth Vader, Miracle, Infinite Diamond, Atomically,
Just Katherine.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs.
VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Kiaran McLaughlin Joins TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

It's been a memorable few months for trainer-turned-jockey-agent Kiaran McLaughlin. He's been nominated to the Hall of Fame for the first time and, as the agent for Luis Saez, has his client lined up with many of the top horses in the sport, including top candidates for the GI Kentucky Derby in Tapit Trice (Tapit) and Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro). With plenty to talk about, McLaughlin joined this week's TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland. McLaughlin was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week.

McLaughlin was asked his opinion of Tapit Trice's win in the GII Tampa Bay Derby, which has not necessarily drawn rave reviews.

“I want to hope that he gets out of the gate a little better next time,” he said. “He was slow to break and was last, but he stayed out of trouble. I never thought he was going to win until the sixteenth pole. But he's got a beautiful stride and a great mind for a Tapit. Luis likes him a lot.”

A Derby win would be Saez's first. He crossed the finish line in front in 2019 aboard Maximum Security (New Year's Day), but was disqualified for interference. Has that experience made Saez even hungrier to win a Derby?

“That was a tough one,” said McLaughlin, who was not Saez's agent at the time. “He handled it great. He doesn't bring it up. He does not want to look back on it. He's always looking to the next Saturday and the Saturday after that. But everybody in the industry wants to win the Kentucky Derby. And for him, I'm sure that he wants to win it even more since he lost it in a disqualification.”

In order to ride Tapit Trice, McLaughlin had to take off the Wayne Lukas-trained GI Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath (Arrogate), who won the GII Azeri S. at Oaklawn in her 4-year-old debut. McLaughlin said the decision was all about sticking with a top horse for the Kentucky Derby. Tyler Gaffalione rode Secret Oath.

“We also had to take off Frank's Rockette (Into Mischief), who won the (GIII) Hurricane Bertie at Gulfstream,” McLaughlin said. “So we lost two very nice fillies. But at Derby time, you're always trying to get to the Kentucky Derby. Wayne was hard on me when I first called him and told him that we were not going to be out there on her. He said, 'You're riding the second best one for Todd (Pletcher). What are you thinking?' I said, 'You're probably right.' He got after me a little bit thinking I was making the wrong decision. I was happy that he won and we won.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Woodford Thoroughbreds, The Kentucky Thoroughbred Association, XBTV, 1/st Racing, WinStar Farm, Lane's End and West Point Thoroughbreds, Randy Moss, Zoe Cadman and Bill Finley took a look back at the win in the Tampa Bay Derby by Tapit Trice and the victory by Secret Oath in the Azeri, which the group deemed the most impressive performance of the week. The ever versatile Moss and Cadman also covered what has been a memorable Cheltenham Festival in the U.K. and raved about the wins by Honeysuckle (GB) (Sulamani {Ire}) and Constitution Hill (GB) (Blue Bresil {Fr}). In other news, the group covered the story of the alarming dip in handle that has been on-going since October and tried to figure out what is going on. A possible answer may be the level of play from the Computer Robotic Wagering players, who, by some estimates, now account for 33% of the total handle in the U.S. The trials and tribulations of former owner Ron Paolucci also made the podcast. Paolucci faces up to eight years in prison after pleading guilty to two counts of tax fraud and tax evasion.

Click for the Writers' Room Podcast's Audio or Video.

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Tapit Trice Turns In Furious Stretch Rally To Win Tampa Bay Derby

At almost no point during the opening 6 1/2 furlongs of Saturday's GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby did things look particularly promising for Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable's heavily favored Tapit Trice (Tapit).

But in a stretch rally befitting his status as a 'TDN Rising Star', the $1.3-million Keeneland September graduate went through his gears and whistled home to–somewhat unbelievably–post an open-lengths victory over Classic Car Wash (Noble Bird) and Classic Legacy (Into Mischief), the third- and fourth-place finishers, respectively, in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. four weeks back.

One of the last to take up his spot in stall six, Tapit Trice was sluggishly into stride, was clearly last through the opening exchanges and was niggled along by Luis Saez before the field had entered the clubhouse turn. Longshot Dreaming of Kona (Fast Anna) took them into the backstretch, but as the half-mile went up in :46.96, Tapit Trice was under even heavier urging three off the fence and Saez even had to resort to a right-handed slap of the crop down the neck of his mount to keep his mind on the increasingly tall task at hand.

Still scrubbed along vigorously at the three-eighths marker and racing with just three rivals behind him at that stage, Tapit Trice was wheeled out about seven wide into the stretch, with plenty of work to do. Classic Car Wash, four wide the trip, came calling for the lead outside of Dreaming of Kona just inside the eighth pole, but Tapit Trice finally hit top gear, wrested command with 70 yards to race and remarkably put a margin on the competition.

“It took him a while to get on track but I was very impressed down the lane,” said Pletcher, winning the race for a record-extending sixth time. “He finished up the way we expected him to. He certainly seems like the farther he goes, the stronger he gets. He's got a big, long stride. Once he got clear down the lane, he really extended himself and I loved the way he finished up. He relished the two turns and the longer he goes, the better he'll get.

Pletcher continued, “Luis fits him well. He understands the way he needs to be ridden and he knows he's not going to come out of the gate quickly. He gave him plenty of time to get going. I feel like he is still learning, though he got a good education today. But he's a horse that I think still needs a little more racing experience to completely put everything together.”

Pletcher indicated that Tapit Trice's final Kentucky Derby prep could come in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8.

Tapit Trice becomes the 100th worldwide graded/group winner for his Gainesway-based stallion. He is the fourth son of Tapit to win this particular Derby, joining Ring Weekend (2014), the Pletcher-conditioned future GI Belmont S. hero and now fellow Gainesway sire Tapwrit (2017) and Tacitus (2019).

“Thanks to Mandy Pope for letting me stay in on this lovely colt,” said Tapit Trice's breeder, Gainesway's Antony Beck. “We knew he is a very talented colt and we thought he had a very good chance today.”

Added Pope: “It was awesome–just the whole team from Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway, Todd Pletcher–it takes a mountain of people to be in this position, but the horse is the one who did it. I lost track of him in the race and thought he was never going to make it up, but once he got free he ate up the ground.”

A useful third on his one-mile debut at Aqueduct the day after the Breeders' Cup Nov. 6, Tapit Trice defeated next-out winner and recent GIII Gotham S. runner-up Slip Mahoney (Arrogate) in a muddy mile event in South Ozone Park Dec. 17. Despite earning a lofty 87 Beyer for that effort, Tapit Trice was the somewhat surprising 13-10 second choice behind 9-10 stable companion Shesterkin (Violence) in a Feb. 4 allowance at Gulfstream, in which he turned on the afterburners in the lane to score by eight lengths.

Pedigree Notes:

Also a 159th black-type winner for his sire, Tapit Trice is bred on the exact same cross as two-time Eclipse Award and three-time Grade I winner Unique Bella, Grade II winner West Coast Belle and Grade III victor Capensis. Additional graded winners by Tapit out of Unbridled-line mares include Valiance and the aforementioned Tacitus.

The winner's now 11-year-old dam, a $5,500 Keeneland November weanling and $10,000 Fasig-Tipton October Yearling, was knocked down to Gainesway for $105,000 at the 2014 OBS April Sale and went on to be a three-time stakes and Grade III-placed winner of better than $312,000 while under the care of Steve Asmussen. She visited Union Rags in her first year at stud in 2018 and saw her and her family's value appreciate when her three-quarter sister Jaywalk (Cross Traffic) earned an Eclipse Award with her victory in that year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Jaywalk's first foal, a now 2-year-old colt by the late Duramente (Jpn), was sold for ¥300 million (US$2,205,927) at last year's JRHA Select Sale.

Hailing from the female family of the capable graded winners Mission Impazible and Forest Camp, Tapit Trice has 2-year-old and yearling full-sisters and Danzatrice was unsurprisingly bred back to Tapit.

Saturday, Tampa Bay Downs
LAMBHOLM SOUTH TAMPA BAY DERBY-GIII, $360,000,
Tampa Bay Downs, 3-11, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:43.37, ft.
1–TAPIT TRICE, 120, c, 3, by Tapit
          1st Dam: Danzatrice (MSW & GSP, $312,145), by Dunkirk
          2nd Dam: Lady Pewitt, by Orientate
          3rd Dam: Spin Room, by Spinning World
'TDN Rising Star' 1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($1,300,000
Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-Whisper Hill Farm, LLC and Gainesway
Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY);
T-Todd A. Pletcher; J-Luis Saez. $210,000. Lifetime Record:
4-3-0-1, $310,150. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus* Click
for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free
Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Classic Car Wash, 120, g, 3, Noble Bird–East Lake Classic, by
Orientate. ($105,000 2yo '22 OBSMAR). O-Gary Barber;
B-Sherry R. Mansfield & Kenneth H. Davis (FL); T-Mark E.
Casse. $80,000.
3–Classic Legacy, 120, c, 3, Into Mischief–Distorted Legacy, by
Distorted Humor. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE.
O/B-W. Bruce Lunsford (KY); T-William I. Mott. $35,000.
Margins: 2, 1 1/4, 1HF. Odds: 0.50, 13.10, 6.00.
Also Ran: Prairie Hawk, Lord Miles, Dreaming of Kona,
Shesterkin, Groveland, Zydeceaux, Mikey Bananas,
Champions Dream, Freedom Road.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO,
sponsored by TVG.

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