Luck | Horse Racing Free Tips

Going To Vegas Will Try To Maintain Her Momentum In Rodeo Drive

Fresh off the biggest win of her career and in search of her third consecutive victory, the Richard Baltas-trained Going to Vegas heads an evenly matched field of nine fillies and mares three and up going a mile and one quarter on turf in Saturday's Grade 1, $300,000 Rodeo Drive Stakes at Santa Anita. A Breeders' Cup “Win & You're In” Challenge Race qualifier, the Rodeo Drive winner will earn a fees-paid berth into the Grade 1, $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Del Mar Nov. 6.

A 4-year-old Kentucky-bred filly by Goldencents, Going to Vegas comes off a rousing 2 ¼ length win going a mile and one eighth on turf in the Grade 2 John C. Mabee Stakes at Del Mar Sept. 4, a race in which she pressed the early pace and kicked clear through the lane as the 9-5 favorite.

Owned by Abbondanza Racing, LLC, Medallion Racing and MyRacehorse, Going to Vegas has a win and a second place finish from two tries at a mile and one quarter. Claimed for $50,000 12 starts back on June 12, 2020, she's banked $242,400 this year from five starts and has overall earnings of $454,151. With an overall mark of 21-6-8-2, she'll be seeking her first Grade 1 victory.

Second in her last four starts, including the John C. Mabee on Sept. 4, LNJ Foxwoods' homebred Dogtag has two wins and three third place finishes from five starts over the Santa Anita lawn and she has a win and a second from two tries at the Rodeo Drive distance. A 5-year-old mare by War Front, she's trained by Richard Mandella and will be ridden by Joe Bravo.

LNJ Foxwoods will have another homebred, Luck, in the Rodeo Drive lineup fresh off a most impressive U.S. debut going a mile and one sixteenth on turf in a first condition allowance Aug. 7 at Del Mar. A 4-year-old Kentucky-bred filly by Kitten's Joy, Luck won two out of her four starts in France before joining the barn of Richard Baltas this past summer. Ridden to victory by Umberto Rispoli at Del Mar, she'll be handled by Flavien Prat on Saturday and she has the look of a filly very much on the improve.

Trainer Leonard Powell's 4-year-old French-bred Neige Blanche, a winner of the Grade 3 Santa Barbara Stakes here three races back, comes off an ungraded stakes win going a mile and three eighths on turf at Del Mar Aug. 14 and would be well served by a fast early pace. Owned by Madaket Stables, LLC, Marsha Naify, et al, she'll be ridden back by Juan Hernandez.

THE GRADE 1 RODEO DRIVE WITH JOCKEYS & WEIGHTS IN POST POSITION ORDER

Race 9 of 11 Approximate post time 4:30 p.m. PT

Dogtag—Joe Bravo—122
Fast Jet Court—Drayden Van Dyke–124
Neige Blanche—Juan Hernandez—124
Going to Vegas—Umberto Rispoli—124
Rideforthecause—Mario Gutierrez—122
Crystalle—Abel Cedillo—122
Magic Attitude—John Velazquez—124
Luck—Flavien Prat—122
Red Lark—Mike Smith–122

The Rodeo Drive is one of five stakes on an 11-race card Saturday with first post time at 12:30 p.m. For additional information, please visit santaanita.com or call (626) 574-RACE.

The post Going To Vegas Will Try To Maintain Her Momentum In Rodeo Drive appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Trainer Julio Canani Dies

Julio Canani, a three-time Breeders' Cup-winning trainer who came to America from his native Peru in 1954, died Friday morning at Huntington Memorial Hospital in Pasadena, California, according to his daughter, Lisa. He was 82.

The news was first reported by the Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman, who quoted friends as saying that Canani had been suffering from dementia and had recently contracted COVID-19.

He was 16 when he came to America, and worked for a landscape company before heading to the racetrack and taking a job with trainer Tommy Doyle. He took out his own license in 1968. He won the 1989 GI Santa Anita H. with Martial Law, the 1999 and 2001 GI Breeders' Cup Mile with Silic (Fr) and Val Royal (Fr), and the 2004 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies with Sweet Catomine, among numerous other top stakes races on the California circuit.

Val Royal's owner, David Milch, based a character in his HBO series LUCK on Canani; the trainer Turo Escalante was played by actor John Ortiz.

Canani was remembered as a colorful, flamboyant character by those who worked with him. “His horses were well trained,” said Victor Espinoza, who won the GI Eddie Read H. at Del Mar in 2004 aboard the Canani-trained Special Ring. “I always knew they would be 100% going into the race. It was fun to work with Julio Canani.”

Fun, certainly–but Canani also wasn't one to keep his feelings hidden, said Espinoza. “For me, that's what I always liked about him, that he wasn't afraid to share what he thought,” he added. “That's how the old-school trainers were.”

Added veteran California handler Eddie Truman: “He was a Damon Runyon type, wasn't he?”

Truman remembered Canani from his early days as a groom for trainer Hurst Philpot, when future handler Ross Fenstermaker was an exercise rider there.

“I don't think either one could speak the other's language, but they always knew how to go to the windows! He loved to gamble, boy that's for sure. What a character, and what a horseman.”

Jeff Siegel raced horses with Canani dating back to Martial Law in 1989.

“He was very loose with the truth but in a good, funny way,” said Siegel. “I once had a first-time starter with him, and she was 30-1. I didn't know too much about her. I said, 'Julio, can she run?' And he said, 'not really–she's a router not a sprinter. She's going to need the race. Maybe down the road after she's had a few races, she'll be okay.'

“Anyway, she got beat a neck or something, and I was thrilled because I was cold-watered by the guy,” Siegel continued. “I told him I was delighted. He said, “I wasn't–I'd singled her in the pick six.' He couldn't even tell me the truth! He was a very, very, very good trainer–especially good with fillies. He never really got the chance to have a big horse–I think he would have been great if he'd gotten that chance, but he lived a life that movies are made out of.”

Former jockey Corey Nakatani, who rode Sweet Catomine to victory in the 2004 Juvenile Fillies, describes Canani as “one of the last of the great horsemen.”

“He worked hard for what he got. He started life selling carrots and ended up a world class horseman,” said Nakatani. “We had a tremendous amount of success together. I believed in what he was doing and he believed in me.”

His career was forever tarnished in 2015 when he was suspended for 13 months for conduct detrimental to racing after a California jury found him liable for fraud over the sale of horses for owner Jeff Nielsen of Everest Stables, who was awarded over $80,000 in damages stemming from the suit. Canani trained Island Fashion (Petionville) for Nielsen. Canani applied for reinstatement in 2016, but was denied a license by the California Horse Racing Board.

According to Equibase, Canani's runners won 1,137 races and $49,274,820 in earnings.

Divorced from his first wife, Jane, Canani is survived by their two children, Lisa and Nick, as well as his current wife, Svetlana and their two children, Isabella and Alexander. He is also survived by two grandchildren and one great grandchild.

There are no funeral services planned at this time, but the Canani family has requested donations be made to the Edwin J. Gregson Foundation.

The post Trainer Julio Canani Dies appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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What Does ‘Statistically Significant’ Actually Mean?

You've most likely heard or read the term “statistically significant” numerous times in your life. What does that actually mean and how do we determine if something is significant or not?

In the most basic form, statistically significant means something that is not due to random variability (not attributed to chance).

If we want to get technical, statistical significance is all about the determination of the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the hypothesis that there is no significant difference between specified populations, any observed difference is due to sampling or experimental error. By performing hypothesis testing, you get a result known as the p-value, which is the probability of observing extreme results in the data you have collected. A p-value of 5% or lower is typically considered to be statistically significant.

What does this mean for the veterinary and horse communities?

By measuring the relationship between multiple variables (i.e. new diet vs. standard diet, vaccine vs. no vaccine, etc.), this allows us to establish the likelihood that an outcome is caused by what we are studying instead of just randomly happening. This means we can determine if something is actually working better than leaving things alone. Nutritionists do this all the time when testing new rations; pharmaceutical companies do this when testing new drugs or vaccines. Veterinarians, and more likely research scientists, may use this to determine if a new type of surgery or expensive treatment is worthwhile.

How does it work?

While knowing how to perform these tests is important for researchers, from a practical standpoint remember two important factors: sampling error and probability. There is always the possibility that differences you see when measuring a sample are just the result of random variability (“background noise”) or just dumb luck. This is sampling error. Probability is just that, the likelihood of something actually happening. The higher the probability of a specific event or outcome, the more likely it is to happen. However, remember that while you may have a high probability, you cannot guarantee certainty.

The use of a p-value of 5%, written as p < 0.05, the most commonly chosen value, means we are looking at a 5% likelihood of something happening by chance alone (i.e. a one in 20 chance of that being the result). That means that whatever we are looking at statistically, the results are 95% due to what we are testing, be that a new drug, vaccine, treatment or surgery.

The take home message

Once testing and analysis are complete, a p-value that is low indicates a statistically significant difference. However, that does not mean the difference will automatically be important or useful. For practical significance (i.e. noteworthy), we need to determine if the difference is large enough to actually be meaningful. A relatively large difference would be useful and practical. A small difference might not be worth the effort or cost for only a small impact. This can cause issues with regard to the interpretation of results and what decisions to make based on the data. We will be discussing these issues and concerns in future stories in this publication, so watch for our future articles.